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Bankroll Management Part I

Bankroll management is arguably the most important concept to understand to maximize your chances of success (or rather, minimize your chances of failure).
Consider this scenario: You magically become a world-class handicapper and can win 55% of your bets on -110 lines. Did you know that with a $1,000 bankroll and flat betting $100 per game at -110 lines, you would go broke ~14.0% of the time after 100 bets? After 1,000 bets the chances of you going broke are a more staggering ~31.0%.
Why does this happen? Despite a positive expected value, you’re betting too much. And this gives you a high risk of ruin.
Kelly Criterion
With a 55% win rate on -110 lines, the Kelly Criterion states that 5.5% of your bankroll is the ideal wager size to maximize the median return of your portfolio. So, what if we flat bet $55 instead, which represents 5.5% of our bankroll. What’s our risk of ruin then?
After 100 bets? ~2.0% After 1,000 bets? ~13.0%.
Better, but still significant risk of ruin.
Some might be surprised to see any risk of ruin at a 5.5% bankroll allocation. One of the assumptions, however, that the Kelly Criterion relies on is that bet sizes are a percentage allocation of your portfolio and not a fixed amount. Among sports bettors, a fixed bet amount is frequently referred to as a bet “unit”.
Bet Units vs Bet Allocation
Record: 72-53 +13.7 units
Patriots -7.5 2 units
Sports bettors love to measure their performance or display their picks as a function of “units”. Most people use it and because of its widespread adoption, it’s easy to communicate between parties. Since it’s become the de facto unit of measurement for sports bettors, it is widely accepted that the best way to practice bankroll management is to 1) determine your wager size and 2) never deviate from that bet size.
Let me explain the risks behind that strategy and why Cleat Street doesn’t recommend it.
Flat Betting $55: Expected Value of 1,000 Bets
We all know how to calculate the expected value, or EV, of a single bet. All you need is three inputs:
1) Payoff of a win (Pw): $50
2) Payoff of a loss (PL): -$55
3) Probability of winning (p): 55.0%
EV Equation
So - if we want to determine the EV of 1,000 bets, can we just multiply $2.75 x 1,000 and get an EV of $2,750?
If you had unlimited funds, then yes. While there is variance around our expected win percentage, our ending bankroll would be normally distributed with a median of $3,750 ($1,000 starting bankroll + $2,750 EV). Without the constraint of going broke, the distribution of the ending bankroll looks as follows:
Bankroll distribution
However, most of us don’t have unlimited funds. We are constrained by our bankroll, so we must account for the possibility that we lose our entire bankroll at some point between Bet #1 and Bet #1,000. As a result, we might not get the chance to finish making all of the bets.
Monte Carlo Simulation – Flat Betting
To determine the likelihood and impact of going broke at some point between Bet #1 and Bet #1,000, we can use a Monte Carlo simulation. We simulated the 1,000 bet opportunities 10,000 times resulting in the following risk-return profile:
Risk of Ruin: ~13.0%
Expected Return: ~4.8%
Median Return: ~ $2,645
Expected Portfolio ROI: ~265%
Without the benefit of an unlimited bankroll, the risk of ruin decreases our EV by nearly 5%, decreasing from $2,750 to ~$2,645. Starting with a bankroll of $1,000, our median ending bankroll is ~$3,645 but has a distribution as displayed below:
Ending Bankroll Distribution
Bet Allocation of 5.5%: Expected Value of 1,000 Bets
When you bet a percentage of your bankroll, the expected value calculation changes a bit. Your payoff outcomes are now framed as a percentage:
1) Payoff of a win (Pw): 5.0%
2) Payoff of a loss (PL): -5.5%
3) Probability of winning (p): 55.0%
EV Equation
To determine the EV of 1,000 bets, however, we cannot just multiply 0.275% x 1,000 and get an EV of 275%. This is because each bet compounds on one another when you are betting a percentage of your bankroll.
Ok – so instead we determine the expected value by saying that you expect to win 550 bets (55% x 1,000) and lose 450 bets (45% x 1,000) and calculate by compounding the returns as follows:
Median Calculation
The above computation reflects the median of the distribution of outcomes as well as the most likely outcome. Yes, the most likely outcome is that you win exactly 550 games, which would generate returns of $2,967. However, this scenario happens only 2.54% of the time. [1] The rest of the time, you either win more than 550 games or less than 550 games.
[1] Binomial probability inputs: Prob (Success): 55%, Num. Trials 1,000, Num. Successes, 550.
Binomial Probability Calculator
We get the following risk-return profile:
Risk of Ruin: 0.0%
Expected Return: 5.0%
Median Return: $2,967
Expected Portfolio ROI: ~297%
“So you’re telling me, I have no chance of losing my entire bankroll, and I can increase my EV? That sounds too good to be true.”
You’re right – the above metrics are true, but they don’t tell the whole story. Although the risk of ruin is zero, there are many scenarios where you could still walk away a loser. To properly assess, we need to take a closer look at the distribution of outcomes.
Lognormal Distribution
The returns generated by using a bet allocation bankroll management strategy follow a lognormal distribution. A lognormal distribution is frequently used to describe the price of financial assets and effectively states that 1) the lowest that your bankroll can go is zero, and 2) your returns have a long-tail to the right.
Visually, the distribution of the ending bankroll after 1,000 bets looks odd when plotted on a linear scale:
‍5.5% Bet Allocation - Linear Scale
When plotted on a logarithmic scale, however the distribution appears normal (hence the name “lognormal”):
5.5% Bet Allocation - Logarithmic Scale
As you can see in the distribution above, there are scenarios where you still walk away a loser after 1,000 bets. In fact, betting 5.5% of your bankroll in this scenario will lead you to losing money approximately 20 percent of the time. To properly assess the risk-return profile, we’ll have to take a deeper look at the full distribution of outcomes in Part II.
What we’ll find is that although the Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy that maximizes median wealth in the long run, there are still considerable risks that may not make it ideal for most bettors. An underlying assumption is that it requires you to know your true win probability, which is impossible. In Part II, we explore Kelly Criterion in further depth and show how you can use the same principles to tailor a bankroll management strategy that better fits your risk appetite.
Bankroll Management Part II will be posted tomorrow
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Calculating win probabilities form closing price odds - HKJC

I am becoming interesting in algorithmic horse racing betting and was looking into Hong Kong racing, due to the ease of collecting data.
I am interested in using the public's opinion on a horse as a part of my model, therefore I am looking to scrape the closing odds of the horses.
I want to convert the closing odds into probabilities and use these as the "public's predicted probability of a horse winning".
I want to use these probabilities in a similar way to how Bill Benter used them.
Does anybody know if the odds presented in the results table (e.g. https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/information/english/Racing/LocalResults.aspx?RaceDate=2020/06/27&Racecourse=ST&RaceNo=2 ) are starting or closing odds?
Another problem is that when converting the odds into probabilities by taking the reciprocal of the odds (1/decimal odds), the resulting probabilities sum to be greater than 1. I am aware that for fixed-odds betting this expected as this is how the 'house' makes money, but i thought that in a pari-mutuel system the odds should sum to 1 as they are calculated based on the amount of money placed on a hose relative to the total amount of money bet on all the horses.
I can renormalize these reciprocals so they sum to 1 by dividing each reciprocal buy the sum of all the reciprocals, this gives numbers that sum to 1 and could be interpreted as probabilities. Does anyone know if this is a valid thing to do?
I know that in the paper 'Searching for positive returns at the track' ( http://ruthnbolton.com/Publications/Track.pdf ) they calculate these public probabilities by looking at the amount of money in betting pools, is this data available somewhere for horse races?
submitted by jsmit332 to horseracing [link] [comments]

Memorial Tournament Preview Blog

Since Riggs, Trent, and Frankie have turned their golf positions at Barstool into less blogging and more playing with themselves and selling $50 cases of soda, I decided to take a dull, butter knife stab at a preview blog for this weekend’s Memorial Tournament.
Last Week
Real quick let’s talk about how much we should all hate the PGA after Sunday’s off-air debacle, and then about some questionable feature groups this week. For weather reasons on Sunday, the Workday final round tee times were moved up so players could finish before incoming storms. Great, that all makes sense. But somehow the PGA was not able to broadcast the round on TV, and when they did have to kill the live broadcast, they didn’t even mention where to go watch the rest of the tournament. THERE ARE NO OTHER FUCKING SPORTS ON, WHAT COULD CBS HAVE MADE PRIORITY OVER THIS FINAL ROUND? No seriously, someone please tell me because I would love to know what aired on CBS from 11 am to 3 pm instead of live sports. Can we also talk about how terrible the Thursday/Friday coverage is every weekend on all networks? You usually get 2-4 featured groups you can stream online from 9-3 (even these groups you often need NBC Sports Gold to watch), and then get maybe 3 hours of full coverage in a TV broadcast. There is legitimately a channel called the Golf Channel, who are airing a shitty preview/talk show while you are missing coverage. Here’s a fucking mad idea - put live golf on the golf channel before the major networks get prime coverage.
Then we got a look yesterday at the featured groups for the Memorial. How do you fuck this up? If you are younger than 70 and even sporadically watch golf, you could do this job better than whoever does it for the PGA. Here’s the formula: Brooks Koepka makes a joke about Bryson Dechambeau using steroids one week ago = you put them in the same group. Golf has so little drama because all these guys are friends and making millions of dollars even when they aren’t winning. Fans need these storylines/rivalries to be buffed up, not ignored because they might hurt Bryson's feelings.
This Week
As far as a course preview, we get a strange twist this week with the players coming back to Muirfield, who just hosted the Workday Charity Tournament. I’ve been watching golf for a long ass time and cannot remember the last time this happened, but it’s not a major headline at all so maybe this does happen on occasion. Either way the setup this weekend will look different than last weekend, with much faster greens, thicker rough, and some changes in tee box locations. I think we see some youngeinexperienced players struggle with the change in green speeds, especially since they just played these same greens and they were rolling like carpet (stimpmeter will go from 11 to 13.5). My gut tells me the winner is either a veteran or someone who didn’t play here last week. This would rule out guys like Hovland, Burns, Merritt, Niemann, etc.
Finally, we have to mention that Eldrick Tiger Woods returns to the field this week. I’m looking at his +2000 odds and hate the value because we have no idea where his game is at right now. That being said, Tiger has won the Memorial five times and placed T9 last year, and T23 the year before. I will root for Tiger to win every tournament he enters, but I won’t look at a future for him at these low odds, and for his first post-break golf since The Match.
Now let’s go over wagers this weekend and what you should look for. I am usually not a fan of betting on outright winners, before any golf has been played. The odds always look so good but you will rarely have a profitable year trying to bet winners every week. That being said, here are some of the best value picks IMO.








My pick: once again reiterating I will likely not bet on a Sunday winner before Thursday starts, but if I was I would put my money on Justin Rose +4500 or Xander Schauffele +2500.
Thursday Matchups
Easily the best way to bet on golf, and in my experience the most profitable. Here are a few picks I’ll be making before Thursday. Currently I am 4-2 betting matchups (last 4 PGA events) and I’ll track my picks moving forward. If I get to Jack Mac or Reags level of bad betting, I promise I’ll retire and not pretend I know what I’m talking about. I’m only going to pick matchups in the featured groups for Thursday. Nothing worse than betting on someone like Marc Leishman, and having to refresh the golf cast simulator thing instead of watching live play.
Dechambeau (-115) over Thomas (-105): everything is so planned out and calculated with Bryson, and his sit-out at the Workday feels like a part of his plan. Fucking hate rooting for this kid, but I see him coming in fresh against JT who blew an enormous lead last weekend.
D. Johnson (even) over Morikawa (-120): my favorite first round matchup bet. It seems counter-intuitive going against the guy who won at this course a few days ago, but don’t forget the major change this week will be how the greens roll. And Morikawa is 150th on tour in strokes gained with the putter. Lock it in.
Take a flier - round 1 leader
I don’t think I’ve ever bet this prop but I’ve also never written a golf blog before so let’s take a shot here. I’ll put a half unit on it as well: Rickie Fowler +4000
Rick's finishes at the Memorial the past 3 years: T14, T8, solo 2nd. In 2017 when he placed 2nd, he shot an opening round 66. I also feel like I see him in the mix a lot in early rounds, but can’t quite put together those low weekend rounds.
That’s all I’ve got. Sorry it’s not funny but it’s better content than we’ve gotten out of Foreplay.
Let’s make some money and blow off work Thursday and Friday.
submitted by -elbisreverri- to barstoolsports [link] [comments]

The best uses for a deck of cards / Playing games worth playing in these times

It is a horrible time for the world, but a good time for games. As it is an expensive and space consuming hobby, I know many of us don’t have access to everything we’d like to play. Over a few years I researched for myself the best uses of a deck of cards – easily portable, easier to get people to the table (oh yes! I play cards!), usually available. It seems like the right time to share the results.
I’ve organized the below into both frame of mind (I want to Think, I want to Pass Time, I want to Laugh) and player count. Player count is focused on who you have – I didn’t put games necessarily where they are best, but rather “if I have four people, what is my best option?”
A brief calibration: I still have my 1995 first edition of Settlers of Catan. I’ve got roughly 80 games in my basement curated from the last 25 years and know the rules to twice that number. My favorite games are Tigris & Euphrates and Race for the Galaxy. This isn’t boasting (certainly not around here) - it is meant to be context so when I say these are games “worth playing” you have a better sense of what that means.
Links to rules. Hope this is helpful.
When you want to think:
For 2:
· Khmer (2 players): Khmer begins as a math and probability game, but quickly evolves into the psychology space and bluffing as you and your opponent learn the game. It gets better with more play, as it has room for different metagames and strategies, and the winner will be the one who remains one step ahead. In essence, you are trying to move cards between your hand and the table such that your total is MORE than your opponent, but LESS than the table – and you are rarely sure what your opponent is holding. The deck requires six 6’s – we use face cards for the 6’s and A-5 for the 1-5.
· Dibs (2-3 players): This is also a psychological game, where you will win by predicting your opponent and staying one step ahead. The core conceit is simple, you each have an identical deck (1-13), you are bidding on another pool of cards (worth face value), and high cards win. The twist comes because you have to use your entire deck of 1-13 to bid, and you can’t win everything. The game is more commonly known as GOPS or Psychological Jiujitsu, but I feel those names are both bad and inaccurate, so we’ve adopted this name instead.
For 3:
· Fight the Landlord (3 players): This is the best 3-player version of the “Big 2” family of games from East Asia. Big 2, or climbing games, are a race to empty your hand before your opponents. There is wide room in choosing what to play when, and how to break up your hand, meaning you will be making both difficult and important decisions throughout each and every round. Highly addictive, and good hand play will nearly always beat out a lucky deal.
The rules get a bit lengthy when it comes to what cards can be led, so you will either want to make a crib sheet or simplify the rules to mirror Tichu (below). The game will play just as well.
· 99) (2-4 players): Another trick-taking game (see note below) on my list. The mechanism for bidding in this game (in a nutshell, removing three cards from your hand) is simple, but introduces asymmetric, hidden information and requires you to make trade-off choices between your desired hand and your desired bid. This adds a bit of crunch to the model without making the game inaccessible to new or more casual players.
For 4:
· Scotch Bridge (Really 4 players, but can stretch to 3-6): Also known as Oh Hell, Pratt & Whitney, La Podrida, and others. This is a trick taking game, and I nearly universally dislike those (see note below), but it wins me over for two reasons. First, you aren't trying to win the most tricks but rather to value exactly the strength of your hand and then hit that bid - which means you are engaged in every single hand. Secondly, the handsize will range from 1 to 13, and each handsize meaningfully changes the feel of the game. 13 is a pure test of trick taking skill, 1 is a Mexican stand-off with your chips on the table, and 7 in the middle is a wild ride of big bets and lady luck.
As noted, this game has numerous variations. Most make little tweaks to the scoring, max handsize, and order of hands. In general, I prefer a positive form of scoring (10 for hitting your bid, 1 for each trick, penalty for how far you missed your bid, etc.) and playing hands from 1 to 13 and back again.
· Tichu (4 players): In my opinion, the best of the Big 2/climbing games. Same as Fight the Landlord, the goal of the game is to be the first to empty your hand, but it requires skillful play in knowing when to play, when to pass, and what to lead. You can never go on autopilot in this game. Tichu is played in 2 vs. 2 partnership and has elegant rules for scoring, both of which make this one of my favorite games of all time.
A note on the game – It is technically designed and published by a Swiss designer. However, if you research it, he played more the role of an editocurator, (quite masterfully) going through regional variants of Big 2, compiling the best, pulling in some scoring rules from other games, and polishing it all into the glistening pearl it is.
A note on the deck - it requires four jokers. You have three options 1) Find two decks with the same backs and mark up the jokers 2) Equally mix two decks so there is an even mix of two card backs, again including and marking up all four jokers, 3) Removing the jokers and using the four 2’s as the jokers, with a crib sheet in the middle of the table mapping the four suits to the jokers. Or you can buy a Tichu deck.
5-6 Players
· Fossil (4-8 player): This is an auction game using a deck of cards. Winning a bid will net you points but losing a bid will constrain your future options - as well as provide key information to your opponents. These decisions are the core drivers – what to set out for auction and when to throw down on someone else’s auction. In the end, the game is a mixture of psychology, strategy, and luck, leaving room both for clever play and for big moments when everyone groans and laughs around the table.
It can play 4-8, but plays best at 5-6. The first game or two generally feels casual and luck driven, but as the game clicks you may start seeing how you can influence the state of the table by choosing what to auction, or how the timing of your bid can win or lose you the hand. Like Khmer, this game grows on you over the first couple of games.
· Napoleon (5-6 Players): This is a Japanese trick-taking (see note below) game. What makes it stand out is the hidden role. Each player bids individually, then the winner (Napoleon) declares a Secretary card. Whoever is holding this card is secretly on Napoleon’s team, unbeknownst to everyone (including Napoleon). This leads to bluffing and deduction during play, with players uncertain about when to win a trick and when to ditch their low cards. It’s an excellent knife twist in the side or what is too often a rote playing-out-of-hands in standard trick taking, and it creates a social environment ripe for discussion and laughter at the end of each hand.
Napoleon is very similar to Briscola Chiamata, but in my opinion plays better as it removes some unnecessary complications from that latter game. It also draws comparisons to Schafkopf/Sheepshead, but again I think this one does it better.
· Skull & Roses (4-8 players): This is a pure bluffing game – think Poker without hands, only you, your opponents, and your wits. If that doesn’t capture it for you, just accept that this is amazing. You all place cards on the table until someone starts bidding, then it’s a gamble for who thinks they can flip the most cards without revealing a skull. The tension comes because, if you win the bid, you have to flip ALL of your own cards - so if you’ve played a skull, you lose. But, if you play all roses, you’re making it easy on your opponents. Choose wisely when you want to bid to win, and when you want to bid to entrap your opponents.
The game is usually played with coasters, but just as easily you can give each player one face card as their Skull and three numbered cards as their Roses. Or mark up any stack of two sided, identical objects in your house – I’ve heard of people playing with sweetener packets at Denny’s.
1) A note on trick-taking:
I don’t like it. Pure trick-taking – think Vanilla Whist – is not devoid of skill, but it IS quickly masterable and rarely surprising. A set of skilled players will play the same hand the same way every time, can guess the outcome before play even begins, and state it with certainty after 2-3 hands have revealed voids or singletons.
Most trick taking games, therefore, overlay something else to add interest. Things like complex bidding (Bridge, Skat) make the games inaccessible to new players, and turn them into objects of study more than play. Things like small hand sizes (Pitch, Euchre) throw the game into heavy luck, and often throw you into the backseat, passively throwing cards on the table until you are dealt a hand worth playing. This is fine to keep your hands busy while you drink, but isn’t what I look for when Gaming (with a capital G).
Nonetheless, I’ve included four trick-takers. My criteria are straightforward:
  1. You have to be able to bid and play whatever hand you get. Games like Spades and Scottish Bridge don’t ask you win as much as you can, but rather to exactly value your hand. Playing a bad hand can be just as engaging and difficult as playing a good hand.
  2. They need a single, straightforward twist to add interest. Napoleon adds a hidden role and uncertain partnerships. 99 asks you to secretly remove cards from the game, manipulating suit length, while trying to deduce what your opponents have removed. Hearts asks you to consider and risk when to win a trick and when to lose. These all give you something to think about throughout the game, sometimes require you to shift tactics midgame, and don’t require a course of study to properly learn (I’m looking at you, Bridge).
I anticipate the comments will contain passionate counter-arguments. So play and make up your own mind. I’ve played a lot and am now offering the best advice I can.
When you want to chat and pass time:
None of these games are chutes and ladders. But they do offer more luck and simpler decisions, for the most part, allowing you to while away hours and spend as much time talking to your opponent as you do thinking about the table.
2 Players
· Cribbage (2-4 players): Cribbage plays out in two acts. You and your opponent(s) lay cards on the table, trying to hit or avoid certain sums, with a few bonuses for creating pairs or runs. Then you look at your hand (and the crib) to make combinations worth points. There’s a bit of a list to remember, for what scores you points, but with that mastered the game settles into an easy rhythm of regular dopamine hits and little pegs on a board. Hitting 15 and hunting for your melds is utterly enjoyable. This is the perfect game to crack open a bottle of something together and seamlessly move back and forth between chat and play.
· Spite & Malice (2-4 players): This game feels like Spit - without the frantic pace, slapped hands, and bent cards. It’s also like multiplayer solitaire, except reverse to how that term is usually used. The rules are built on real solitaire, but you will be very much intertwined with your opponents. Hence the spite, and the resulting malice. I know couples who play this frequently, keeping a running score for the entire year.
3 Players
· Shed / Palace (3-5 players): This game goes by many names, not all of them polite. I was taught it as “Screaming Yoda” and it was over twenty years before I learned that the game was known worldwide by other names.
Anyway, Shed is a race to get rid of all your cards. Instead of a winner, there is one loser (the last one). The rules for playing cards are simple, and sometimes you’ll be forced to pick up 20 cards all at once. But it’s fine, everything’s fine. You’ll get it back.
The game plays out in multiple acts and often swings back and forth, lending it excitement and perpetual hope. Not overly strategic, but engaging and fun from start to end.
4 Players
· Canasta (4 players): The Archetypal Argentinian game. Canasta is an ageless, breezy, push your luck game of set collection and making odd faces at your partner across the table, trying to read their mind without communicating ("May I go out?" "No." "G****n you what a f**** mess why didn't you play your Canasta before.")
It feels a bit like Rummy, as you are drawing and discarding to collect sets of cards with your partner, and trying to out-collect your opponents. However, the team dynamic, the scoring rules, the wild cards, and the end-game make this an entirely different animal.
The game has a frustrating amount of rules – though they are all simple, the sheer number means some time to learn and then time to familiarize/memorize. As is the way with most longstanding, cultural games. Nothing that a crib sheet and a few run-throughs can’t solve.
· Cuarenta (4 players): Now hop over to Ecuador, and this is the national game. The central conceit is much simpler than Canasta – play one card onto the table, trying to capture the cards already on the table by creating matches or runs. But, as with Canasta, there is then a laundry list of footnotes to be memorized with edge cases and scoring.
That said, once digested, the game is simple, breezy, and endlessly entertaining. You’ll do better if you can calculate odds and count cards, but at the same time you can still enjoy yourself (and still win) by just playing your cards and sipping your drink.
· Hearts & Spades (4 players): As mentioned, I’m generally not a fan of trick taking (see note above). I include these because they don’t overinflate themselves. They know they are simple trick-taking games, they add a touch of spice for interest, and just leave it at that. The result in both cases is a pleasant way to pass the time.
For Hearts, the good bit is the shifting winds, trying to decide at each point when you are trying to win and when you are trying to lose. Each hand is a puzzle, how to throw your hearts at other people, how to win those tricks with your high cards at the right time, etc.
For Spades, the central challenge is in correctly valuing your hand, then playing to hit that value. Keep in mind that others may start tanking their own tricks to hit their bid, which makes the ground under your own feet increasingly unstable. Depending on how the cards come out, you may find yourself scrabbling for just one more trick, or suddenly shifting to trying to lose because someone had an unexpected void – it’s that agility that comes from the shifting landscape and the fact that every hand is a chance to play THAT hand that makes Spades a game worth playing.
When you want to Laugh and have fun:
Sometimes you want to laugh more than you want to win. Sometimes you just want to have fun, without taking on any stress. These are those games.
2 Players
· Cabo) (2-4 players): This plays better at 3-4 but is the only one I’ve found for the bucket that does work for 2. At it’s core, it is a bit of memory, luck, and playing the odds – you are swapping facedown cards around the table, but you don’t get to look at all your cards. So you need to figure out what you have, what your opponents have, and choose the moment to strike - when you think you have the lowest hidden total.
Cabo is a relatively modern game, but even so there are a handful of different origin stories and many minor rules variations. Play one set of rules to start and, if you like it, you can check out all the possibilities and stick with your favorite.
3 Players
· Ricochet Poker (3-8 players): It’s a light betting game – can play with quarters or crackers, whatever you like. The game is simple and draws from poker rules. Each round you get one more card and have to decide whether you want to pay to stay in or fold. It’s more accessible than poker, so is easy to “wing it,” but you still get the agony and thrills that come from winning or losing the pot.
· Manipulation Rummy (2-4 players): If you are familiar with Rummikub, this is that game exactly but with two decks of cards (instead of tiles). If you aren’t – this builds on the foundation of Rummy, but all melds are played onto the table. Where it shines is the fact that you can break, reform, and rearrange ALL the cards on the table on your turn, in order to find a place for more cards from your hand. The joy is in hunting for that one opportunity on the table so you can wow everyone when it comes to your turn.
4 Players
· Cockroach Poker (3-6 players): This is properly a game that should be purchased, but in these times you can make a deck using two decks of cards – 8 each of 8 numbers (I recommend A, K, Q, J, 7, 8, 2, 3… it’s a cognitive psychology thing, just humor me). You’ll be passing cards facedown around the table, asserting (truthfully or falsely) what the card is. The game is in correctly guessing when someone is lying or telling the truth, as well as in the politics of not being the last person at the table to receive a card (after everyone else has already seen it). Every time you lose a challenge, the card goes face up in front of you. Collect too many cards, and it’s game over. This one is amazing.
5-6 Players
· Eleusis (4-8 players): I originally learned this as “Delphi,” a streamlined version that is more appropriate for kids. This version has more teeth to it and should delight all ages. One player takes on the role of god (think Zeus) and secretly writes down a law that all cards played must follow. All the other players must then, by trial and error, figure out that law and get rid of their cards. This is harder than it sounds. What makes it work is that Eleusis has a number of scoring rules that put balance into the game – you want the rule to be hard but not too hard, etc.
This game will earn many rounds of play. What is nice is it also has a co-op feel. Yes, you are all trying to be the first to guess and play your cards, but on the other hand you are all in it together trying to decipher the divine law you’ve been given.
submitted by MurphMurp to boardgames [link] [comments]

Psycho Betting and Stats 301-Degenalytics Question

!!!!DISCLAIMER:!!!!
Before you even start watching this for entertainment and see if you get offended by this un-P.C. content. Don't be a pussy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igsb3ejgbL8
If you can't handle it, leave this thread. If you can, then you may proceed to the next level.
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📰📜Story📜📰:
I've been scatter-brained, ire-filled, soul-searching and lost after a 7-day Degen Marathon that brought a shit load of misfortunes. I used to hate social media, but I've learned how to wield the soc. med. sword like a fucking Degen Jedi. I'm going to promote an honest cause where I seek to be victorious in the end. Just you watch you fucking doubters, haters, blockers, scammers. How much grit and intellect would the average fucking person have to endure what I've gone through in the last fucking 48 hours and still come out alive with a sense of greater purpose?
Had about $400 to $500 in righteously earned bonus dollars earned through impossible grinding degen mission that came pretty close to accomplishing (91%).
I would have had some imaginary >$600 BR by now, but instead the roll-over deadline caused the entire deposit to be forfeited and I manage to salvage some $100.
Due to a bonus rollover scheme, 80U of my balance was stuck in bonuses and if I fail to accomplish the roll-over by the deadline, it all gets forfeited.
With a $500-$600 balance, I could have somewhere at $900-1000 by now after a 20-2 W-L record on European football on Wednesday.
How did I get that record yesterday, by sampling a bunch of solid pre-game picks and live betting using my own fucking brain. I consult with the finest in capping. With $10-$20 bet sizes, That would have put me up maybe $15x16 = +$240 at minimum. $1000 was the imaginary bank roll. As of today, betting with $1 units, after Monday-Wednesday's successful run, while Tuesday was a -$50 blip, I converted $100 to about close to $200 (40U).
🤪🤑Psycho Betting🤑🤪:
I learned the art of psycho betting. Taking some well-advised 10U and 30U psycho bets that put my bankroll up a significant amounts, but a big loss does the opposite. Yesterday I manage to hit 4 grand 30U slams in a row, however many on juiced lines, so each $30 bet one returns about $15-20. Thus my bankroll grew nearly +100 units and sits close to $200 from the initial $100 I manage to salvage after that bonus robbery.
If you want to fucking learn the art of Psycho-Betting to the extremest and be successful at it, fucking put in $100 in Bovada (remember to use money that you can afford to lose) and get that fucking bonus for the purpose of looting the bookies in a successful vengeance scheme. This guy is a fucking Artillery: https://twitter.com/GoTimeCappers.
Fucking hit more than 4x30U grand slams yesterday and some 10-20U cherries on top. I tailed his free picks and other through consultation [Haha fucking reddit/sportsbook will probably ban me for promoting another tout, :)].Of course with my $1.5U size on a crippled bank roll, I cannot grow it to as much as I wanted to using GoTime's techniques. I would have been at another +$400 if I had $6 units. It's a high risk and high reward system, but if you are confident with your picks you go big on it. If you lose it, then you grind back with smaller 10U and 20U bets to try to get back to part to be able to do another 30U bet. The goal is to be like 2-1, 3-0 on 30U grand slams a day. There is some level of sustainability and back up plans to execute in case the 30U bet did not work out. It is very improbable for you to lose 10 in a row on well researched picks that the experts in the community have common agreement on. A lot of the times, the lines shift to reward you less for the pick since big money is already on the pick.
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!!!!!DISCLAIMER: DO NOT READ BEYOND HERE IF YOU HATE MATH OR HAVE AN IQ OF < 89!!!!!
Use the chart on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_classification
Here is a Nice Calculation to do:
📚📑💻Stats 301 Question in Degenalytics💻📑📚**:**
Lastly I asked anyone in the past few days to do a Stats 301 question with Degenalytics Context: To fucking determine the probability that an avg Joe with a $100+100 Bonus Bank-roll or $500 + 250B bank roll can actually pull off the $3000/$7500 grind in some number of N months betting with supposedly 2 full months of real sports (N-2) getting Obliterated by COVID-19. I want you to give me an analytical calculation or a simulation of your work and give me all the possible scenarios.
Then give the final verdict of if that number converges to 0.000% or 100.00% that the average Joe would succeed his false-hope mission for a successful rollover.
In other words think of it like this: If the average joe bets his entire bank roll 12 or more times (roll-over is not x10 because of bookie juice), what is the probability that he will still end up in the green? Also assign a tilt probability factor that the Average Joe would go on some emotional tilt spree to end up bust again? And make it even harder by eliminating 2-3 full months of real sports (N-2.5) and having to bet on Bovada's limited shitty ass lines and shitty live odds.
If you fucking want to eliminate the -2.5 months, then allow the average joe the freedom to bet on N months of e-sports [hahah] and see where that goes.
I had a bad experience betting on e-sports for 2 months and only end up -15-20U. I'm not saying that I lost because I suck at e-sports betting or I tailed the wrong people. The Bovada lines are super shitty and limited. Most of the time, on live esports, all you see are dashed out lines as if they fucking know what the rigged result is and prevent people from doing hedge bets or try to bet opposite spreads when they are winning to guarantee an insurance 1-1 with minimal damage incurred to their bank-roll. The live betting experience on e-sports on the Bovada platform is so bad that you are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Fucking hell Bodog/Bovada even offered me a $250 deposit on 100% bonus after the Rudy Gobert day in Mid March. They advertised the joys and wonders of getting rich betting off esports.
I was so tempted to deposit, however I kind of over-slept and missed out on the dead-line so they closed the bonus offer. Pretty good relief that I did not fuck-up my real credit card and bank account by falling for that scam again. It was an accidental Grace of God moment to fucking avoid that E-sports deposit marketing scam.
BONUS Questions:
A: Calculate the number of months needed and number of successful bets required for the conservative degen 1u bettor to grind out the roll-over playing
$2.00 tug of war with the bookie.
B: Calculate the odds that a professional capper who knows how to adjust unit sizes (1u-5u), do parlays once a while, will succeed the roll-over in some
N-2.5 months or add some e-sports to have fun to keep the N factor.
C.1: Calculate the conditional probabilities for the bettor succeeding in the mission if on the first few days of betting:
i) He loses bet 1 for about $20.
ii) Wins bet 1 for about $20 to earn $17.5.
iii) Goes on a 3 game losing streak
iv) 5 game losing streak
v) Positivity case: The guy got lucky and nearly doubled his bank roll on a decent run from day. Up +100U or $200. [I'm sure that out of bad discipline the average Joe would still go -200U in the long run with a pretty high probability.]
C.2: Determine the mathematical scheme on how the Bookies can use your first few losses to eventually put you in a 60+:40- (Greater than 60% locked in bonus, less than 40% of your deposited money). Bonus:Locked funds ratio.
The Jinx-King answer: It converges to zero [hahaha], but I really am interested in know what other scenarios math and stats people have come up. And your mathematical approaches and formulae used to generate possible scenarios and probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that for the average Joe,the answer is 0.00% success rate. Bodog/Bovada knows this exactly and refuses to put a hiatus on the roll-over deadline. Instead they keep it going so that people can try to wager on e-sports and lose their entire bank roll. They are only interested it getting 100% of your locked funds so that they can buy expensive cruises, yachts, beach mansions, resort packages, etc in Aruba or some other tropical place. Where you got millions of desperate Americans, Canadians in struggling economies with lost jobs and zero positive cash-flow. About 10% or so or perhaps even more deposit money into off-shore gambling websites hoping they can roll-over their bank-roll some ridiculous number of times and make a few bucks to put food on the table.
In fact, it makes matters worst being jobless, having zero cash flow and having locked funds in scamming bookies. If you are not good at casino or sports-betting games, you would have:
A: Lose your entire deposit for failing to grind it out properly.
B: Not grind it out on time on whatever dead-line the roll-over was.
C: Even if you did successfully grind that shit out using conservative 1u betting and play $2 tug of war with the bookie, you will end up just wasting your time grinding it out for hours and hours on end. It would have been better for you to fucking find a job at some farm helping out with harvesting crops or work in meat plants so that food does not go to waste. I bet you I can make more money than your $2 tug of war in one a day picking off cans and bottles off the streets in some exercise walking/running/biking + collection routine then selling it to the recycling center for $0.05-0.25 a unit. Trust me at my university, I spot maybe about 50-200 empty/partially driven cans and bottles left on desks, lecture halls, the floor, libraries, work areas, etc. Supposed that I harvested that shit, I would be making $5-$20 a day collecting it all and going to the recycling center once every week.
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⚖Conclusions⚖:
The fucking company knows this COVID-19 closure shit and want to use it to their advantage to continue to rob millions of their customers. Last week, I tried to call customer service, chat help, email, etc. and management has spoken to plead my case to delay the roll-over dead-line in a pro-rated time frame so that customers with locked balances can resume betting with their full balance when Game 1 of any Major League Sport actually returns. They give me the same bull-shit over and over saying they decline my request. For what reason?
  1. The terms and conditions written in fine print for accepting the bonus conversion challenge. "Rules are Rules."
  2. They were aware my deadline of June 22 at 19:23 ET was approaching soon. They knew I was on a mission to salvage my bank roll before they yank out the 60-75U trapped in bonus balances (i.e. Ghost money). By the end of it, I realize I made a foolish mistake. Most of my wins were just from bonus money and I was rewarded $0.00 on righteous wins on expired bonuses.
Therefore Bonus money only earns bonus money which put my entire bank-roll in a 80:20 ratio where the bookies control 80U in ghost money. By the end of the roll-over deadline, they get to yank out 80U of my balance at the deadline and left me with about $100 (20U) bank roll to regrind.
  1. They knew I was winning consistently making solid picks.
During my 110 hour marathon over the brutal grind of losing more than 70 hours of work, leisure and recreation; 35 hours of sleep; to a fucking impossible grind of trying to roll over some 60% of $7500 on sports I have little knowledge of capping (i.e. E-sports, Table Tennis, European football) after a few days of studying the game, I was picking up my stride to grind it to 91%. They fucking knew that if I had another day to grind, they would be coughing up +$600-800 of withdrawable balance to my account.
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Bio:😎📚🎓👨‍🎓
I am a Fucking PHD Candidate (2-6 months from graduating and not having to pay another round of BS tuition) who does a shitload of mathematics, statistics, simulations, mathematical physics, wrote scientific papers. I've won T.A. Awards, Government/Provincial/Institutional level scholarships, Conference presentations, with even Undergrad honors back in the day. DM me if you need a fucking CV to prove my fucking credentials.
Why am I able to write a lot of shit? Because my fucking brain operates on some max level Intel Xeon chip on overclock mode and I cannot do much to shut it down other than going to sleep. They only way is to write articles that I think might benefit the community.
I have a crazy interest in sports and Degen'ing. I love to fucking put action on sports games, be proud about making the correct calls on the outcome of games before it happens, and then boast to my circle of competitive friends about who's the fucking Boss. As tabboo as society think us degens are, I think this absolute BS. There is a pure enjoyment in watching sports and having action on it. It is nice to get paid beer money to cover a round for your buddies, or earn that rent money over a successful night of betting on shit you actually enjoy watching. Fuck I rather make $300 for one evening of enjoying sports rather than working a 9-5 dull job to try to afford rent/mortgage. If I can fucking pay off all my monthly expenses in 3 fucking successful nights of 3 hr sessions of sports matches, that would be ideal. I would take the lather over a 9-5 rat-race grind.
Overall I am "PRO" in the debate for local single sports betting bookies to be established in Canada. Get these fucking scamming off-shore books like bodog/Bovada who contribute only contribute "Bagel" to the Canadian Economy, but instead make it worst by scamming the masses of hard working or desperate people to leak out some sum of billions of dollars of national GDP. Probably the same applies to all American States, that people should not have to cough up their hard earned $$$$ to off-shore scamming bookies. I shall write an article about this later to justify my arguments later.
Ultimately I my goal is to obliterate or negate the influence of all the cons, scamming bookies, and false touts out there who are just interested in stealing people's $$$. To write out full studies on exposing their schemes in an objective lens.
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Calling me out: (Think I cannot track these pussy downvotes? I know you cowards 😂😜😎)
If you think I'm full of BS, then send me a personal DM to have a 1v1 argument the same way that Stephen A debates sports with Max Kellerman. You can downvote me or flame me with empty hate talk all you want on public threads. But don't be a fucky pussy by avoiding a debate with me. Trust me, I'm going to win and be the last one to state a real point that you will have no comeback for [haha]. Lastly, if you are open to discuss or debate with me about some issues, do some resarch/exploration, betting strategies, etc., I would love your collaboration in some projects I got going on.
Ultimately, I should help every honest worker strive towards Degen success or if not, just to purely enjoy putting action on sports games. If you are too full of yourself, then you are on your own, I bid thee adieu, and wish you all the best. However you will be absolutely declined to all services and counsel I work to provide to friends for free.
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Social Media📺🎬
Some extra Resource to how I got to this point in my mission.
Here it is for starters:
June 23, 2020: The Impossible Pursuit Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Tuesday)
June 24, 2020: Doubling Bank roll and rewarded Bagel: Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Wednesday)
June 24, 2020: How can you win 5 in a row and lose it all simultaneously? Reddit/sportsbook/What is your most impressive win?
Full Twiiter: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5
All my media: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/media
Discord: ????? To be solved.
Challenges: Got a few right in progress now and a couple of drafts I am working on.
The Jinxking Crusade (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275516258822131714?s=20
Turns out many people cannot withdraw anything out of Bovada/bodog due to some website glitches. Will try to recover a bankroll to attempt a withdrawal, however I am likely to have the same issues too. They will make some lame excuse to not give me a cheque. Definitely no point of pursuing anything in bovada/bodog if they refuse to give you withdrawables. The goal is to get their website off outta here. As well as get them out of advertisements. They definitely pulled off some "Get the fucking money and run scheme" and you will likely not see your money again. GG
The Jinxking Challenge (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275661929940467713?s=20
Want to expose a bad tout who over prices the service and has a mediocre record? Tail and fade to call their their BS or mediocre non profiting record out. Also good for finding legitimate winners too. This will be a mission to expose shitty touts on Twitter the way Penn & Teller exposes BS in the market.
submitted by jinxking0p5 to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Bankroll Management Part II

Bankroll Management – Part II
Thanks for all the feedback yesterday on Part I. Continuing our journey through bankroll management, now is a good time to discuss the Kelly Criterion in further detail.
The Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy that will maximum median wealth expectation over the long term. Betting more than the Kelly Criterion suggests will lead you to suboptimal results. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth and was formulated by scientists John L. Kelly and Claude Shannon in 1956.
Calculating Kelly
We have a workbook to calculate the Kelly Criterion yourself. For American odds, the following formulas are used:
Kelly formula
For example, if you are getting +200 on a bet but your winning percentage is 40%, your Kelly Bet Allocation would be calculated as:
Kelly allocation example
And if you’re getting -250 on a bet that you win 75% of the time, your Kelly Bet Allocation would be calculated as:
‍Kelly allocation example 2
What Happens If We Bet More Than the Kelly Criterion?
In the example introduced in Part I (1,000 bets, -110 odds with a true 55.0% win probability), the Kelly Criterion states that a bet of 5.5% of your bankroll would maximize wealth expectation in the long run.
What happens if you want to bet more than the Kelly Criterion? Well, if you bet 1.5x Kelly Criterion (or 8.25%), 66% of the time you will wind up worse off than if you bet 1.0x Kelly (Full Kelly). Starting with a bankroll of $1,000, the distribution of potential outcomes based on bet size is displayed below.
Range of different outcomes based on Kelly multiples
After 10,000 bets, you will be worse off 90.6% of the time.

Bet Size Probability of being worse off than 1.00X Kelly
1.00x Kelly -
1.25x Kelly 74.3%
1.50x Kelly 90.6%
1.75x Kelly 97.6%
2.00x Kelly 99.6%
As the number of wagers grows, the less likely it is to have an outcome where betting more than 1.0x Kelly would yield better returns.
Phrased differently, over a 10,000-game sample size, you would only be better off betting 1.5x Kelly if you exceed your true win percentage and win at least 55.7% of your bets. The likelihood of this happening (if your true win % is 55.0%) is approximately 9% and shrinks as you increase your sample size.
In the long run, your winning percentage converges to the true win probability, which is the median of the distribution of potential outcomes. As a result, the Kelly Criterion is determined as the percent of bankroll wagered to maximize median wealth in the long run. Unless you’re not planning to bet for very long, there’s no reason to wager more than the Kelly Criterion.
Key Assumption
The Kelly Criterion relies on one very important assumption: that you know your true win probability with absolute certainty.
In a casino game like blackjack or craps, the true probability of an outcome is known (assuming fair dice/deck). We know that the probability of rolling a 12 (2 sixes) in craps is 1/36.
Dice outcome chart
The challenge when betting sports: When someone says that the Dodgers have a 67.0% probability of beating the Diamondbacks, that person is estimating this probability using historical data and mathematical models. There is no way of knowing with absolute certainty what the win probability is for the Dodgers. This presents a challenge because it leaves you vulnerable to overbetting.
Uncertainty of True Winning Percentage
Due to the uncertainty around true win probability, many people argue that a Full Kelly betting strategy is too aggressive. We tend to agree.
Let’s assume that you have an NBA model that you believe predicts every regular season game (1,230 games) against the spread at a 55.0% winning percentage (highly unlikely that you can find this much value in every game, but let’s use this as a simple example). You start with $1,000 and bet all 1,230 games at Full Kelly allocation of 5.5% of your bankroll. Let’s say, however, that you were slightly overconfident in your model, and the actual true win probability is 54.0% (still very good). Despite having a winning model, your Full Kelly bet allocation should be only 3.4%, and you have therefore been betting the equivalent of 1.62x Kelly.
How does overbetting affect your expected results? We’ve summarized the results below.
Strategy Comparison
You have a situation here where, despite having a winning model, you have a higher chance of losing money because of an imprecise estimate of your winning percentage. Therefore, we generally suggest that you either 1) estimate your winning percentage more conservatively, or 2) practice using a “Fractional Kelly” approach towards bankroll management.
Fractional Kelly Betting
Fractional Kelly betting is just as it sounds – betting a fraction of what the Kelly Criterion suggests as optimal. Below we’ve plotted various bet allocations for your NBA model with a 54% true win percentage.
Risk Return Profile of Kelly Multiples
Yes, there is always a chance of losing money. However, we want to only accept that risk if we are being fairly compensated with the expectation of making money. If you’re not receiving incremental returns, you should not take on more risk.
For instance, let’s compare the bankroll management strategies of 0.5x Kelly betting vs 1.5x Kelly betting. Both strategies have a median expected final bankroll of ~$1,600. By betting 0.5x Kelly, however your chances of losing 20% or more of your bankroll are only 10%, while betting 1.5x Kelly would result in you losing 20% or more of your bankroll around 33% of the time. Therefore, the 1.5x Kelly betting strategy is dominated and is never recommended.
Let’s borrow a term from modern portfolio theory and say only bet allocations between zero and Full Kelly are on the efficient frontier. Therefore, these are the only bankroll management strategies that should be considered. We’ve plotted the efficient frontier of bet allocations below.
Efficient Frontier of Betting Allocations
Personal Risk Appetite
It’s worth noting that even with a precise estimate of true winning percentage, using a Full Kelly bankroll management system might be too aggressive for your personal preferences. That’s fine – your bankroll management system should be tailored to your desired to risk-return profile, and everything at or below a Full Kelly strategy is a valid bankroll management strategy.
Let’s say that you’re risk averse, and your objective is to minimize the chances of losing 20% of your bankroll. You decide that you don’t want greater than a 5% chance of losing 20%, so you can choose a 0.25x Kelly Fraction as your desired bankroll management strategy.
Simultaneous Wagers
The above calculations assume that all bets are independent of one another and that no bets are occurring simultaneously. If you have simultaneously occurring wagers, such as betting on the Lakers and the Patriots at the same time, you should consider betting a little less than the Kelly Criterion suggests.
Example: Consider a situation in which you have 20 bets that you want to bet 5% of your bankroll on. If you bet them all simultaneously and lose all 20 bets (hey, it can happen!), you’ve lost your entire bankroll. If those wagers had happened sequentially, the Kelly Criterion would have told you to bet less money after each loss and you still would have 36% of your bankroll remaining.
The calculations are little trickier and beyond the scope of this article. For further reading, you can check out “Algorithms for optimal allocation of bets on many simultaneous events” by Chris Whitrow. (Reader beware, unless you have a good handle on multivariable calculus, the paper may seem like a foreign language.)
What If I Don’t Know My Winning Percentage?
This Kelly Criterion discussion builds the framework around the upper bound of your bet sizing with a known winning percentage. If you don’t have a reasonable estimate of your winning percentage on a particular bet, I urge you to be very conservative with your bet size. Until you are confident in your estimated win percentage of a bet, I would suggest limiting your bet size to 0.5% to 1.0% of your bankroll.

submitted by cleatstreet to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Calculating odds for home casino horse racing game.

For a casino game night, I'm trying to build a horse racing game. The game should be simple to play, but still fun for everyone. My idea was a game board with 6 horses, a '27' round lap (got a big board with that, so that would be easiest to use), a dice for each horse (or 6 decks of playing cards using the Ace to 6 cards) and two extra dice. One of the extra dice determines what horse gets a bonus roll each round, and the 2nd dice is the neutral dice to determine the bonus steps.
Now, I want to make it a little more interesting with different starting positions. I want 1 horse to start at +3, 4 horses at 0 and 1 horse at -6. So basically, the board is actually 33 steps (first on 34 and up wins).
So I made the following Excel spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSAfaiaqMIPbsSj4_M6DLexkzwLJ6w1ePCwwog64fGiWY6KcZ4k8A4eW5r6Kobz1sWbeJYBzYdhrNgL/pub?output=xlsx
The problem is that I do not know how to calculate the extra roll. I would assume the extra roll would have bigger impact on the odds of horse number 6 (starting at -6), but that is just my guess.
I did a test run with 133 runs (read; counted) without the extra roll ended up with horse 1 winning 51 times (~38% win), horse 2-5 winning 81 times (~61% chance win, ~15% each), and horse 6 had 1 win in 133 runs, (~1% chance)
Payout would be '3/2' for horse 1, 11/2' horses 2-5, and '99/1' for horse 6. (100 games with 6 players, all betting $2 on a different horse each game, this would result in $17 a profit for the casino)
Some aditonal rules that shouldn't really affect the odds; After two rolls, players have the option to double down. Players who join during a race can still bet, but not after 2 rolls. The payout is always '1/1' for a late bet on any horse. You can only bet on 1 horse .
In case of a draw (for example, horse 1 on 34, horse 2 on 35 and horse 3 on 35, horse 1 would lose, and horses 2 and 3 would keep rolling until one of them rolls higher.
So my question; are my odds correct? Would the odds be influeced by the extra roll? And how do I simulate games (with and without bonus rolls), for example 1 million games, to see a clear view of winning chances?
submitted by HarryNohara to askmath [link] [comments]

Analysing the past and theories for the future of Modern Day (May contain spoilers)

Edit: For clarification, I’ve avoided topics or plots I know to have been resolved in the games or elsewhere, Here I am attempting to string together unanswered questions from the lore in a meaningful way.
Okay so this is a pretty long theory and requires revisiting some themes from the narrative that haven’t entirely been explored, explained or completed as of writing.
We’ll also need to establish a few things to flesh out where I think the Modern Day narrative is going. Some of these are vague references so bear with me.
The fate of Desmond:
There is foreshadowing as early as AC3 as to what is now occurring in the present.
One piece of dialog worth noting is this very odd interaction between Desmond and William that will become more interesting later on.
Desmond: ‘It just keeps happening over and over again’
William: ‘what does?’
Desmond: ‘Everything’
Minerva also explains this to us clearly at the end of the game.
Including that Juno had twisted the eye towards another purpose. Ie: her own purposes, planning the domination of ‘her’ world.
Minerva: ‘Divination through numbers, there is a pattern to existence, to comprehend the calculations is to tame time. This was my focus. And so I built the eye to aid us . But she (Juno) turned it towards her own ends.’
Further, we have established what the grand temple is, and what it does. It is a vessel for transference of the mind. Essentially a huge computer system to store an Isu (or other) consciousness. But for that consciousness to leave requires a price to be paid.
‘we forged a new vessel, one that might endure. It proved easy enough to enter. But to leave. To leave required something more… something wrong*. And so this too they abandoned.*
I wondered, though.. were they right to turn away?’ – Juno describing the capability of the grand temple.
Juno is describing the grand temple in this scene, a vessel that might endure to store consciousness.
And the price that must be paid to leave is a life, which Desmond paid when he touched the orb and released Juno into the world.
Here’s where the theory starts. Desmond didn’t ‘die’ when he touched the orb. His body did, yes. But his mind transferred into ‘The Grey’
How do we know this? Lets run through it.
Into The Grey:
“...Into the Grey - the digital frontier, the singularity - the space in which she dwells being both made of light and the embodiment of darkness.” Part of the credo of the instruments of the first will (AC Black Flag)
These themes are touched on starting with Black Flag and well into Unity, and I believe they paint a very clear picture that not only Desmond, but Clay are alive within the worlds data networks.
Let’s first return to that security breach memo but focus on a different part of the text.
From Database: 14. Security Breach Memo
\122\145\147\151\156\141\112\165\156\157: TheWorldIsTendingThis.BePatient.InDueTimeAllWillPlugin.NoneWillLeave.NotOne.NotClayNotDesmondNot.AllAreHereWithMe.AllLiveInBliss.SoMustYouDoAsWell.SoMustYouAll.SamplesCollect.DataProvide.ToReviveMyRace.TheHiddenTwelve.ToRemakeMyWorld.
So we have this very interesting memo, which is clearly Juno communicating and specifically mentions that Clay and Desmond are alive. If that’s not enough we have the following.
This next entry I think is the most interesting, I believe it directly hints at not only Desmonds existence, but that he’s actively working towards something from within ‘The Grey’
Database: 16. Chat Log
Chat Log: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]); [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
-Message sent at 3:27pm-
V.DACOSTA: Mel. Got a minute?
M.LEMAY: Sure.
V.DACOSTA: You've been briefed on the security breaches?
M.LEMAY: Broad strokes. I have a meeting @ 17:00 to learn more.
V.DACOSTA: I'll be there. Just a heads up though - expect some panic.
M.LEMAT: ??? What's going on?
V.DACOSTA: A new breach this morning. Something we've never experienced before.
M.LEMAY: Is it bad?
V.DACOSTA: Probably. Not sure yet. Someone slipped right through our firewalls with one of the most well coordinated attack we've ever seen. Seventeen seperate servers compromised simultaneously in perfect unison, each via completely separate backdoor programs.
M.LEMAY: Meaning?
V.DACOSTA: Meaning somehow a single entity was capable of launching 17 completely independent attacks rather than one attack on 17 targets - the equivalent of someone playing and winning 17 separate chess games in the span of a few seconds.
M.LEMAY: Assassins?
V.DACOSTA: I can't imagine how. They have good tech, but they're never so blatant and they never split their priorities. This was a massive data sniff perpetrated by a single person or small group.
M.LEMAY: What did they take?
V.DACOSTA: They didn't TAKE anything, but they scanned almost everything. Genetic memory archives, precurses analyses, raw DDS data. Lots of things people on the outside shouldn't even know about. They were looking for something, but I can't be sure if they found it.
M.LEMAY: Could it have come from the inside?
V.DACOSTA: That's what we assumed. What makes the whole thing strange, though, is that the data seems to have been moved around Abstergo's servers multiple times over the course of the attack. Shuffled, reorganized, and most likely altered.
M.LEMAY: Meaning what?
V.DACOSTA***: It's hard to explain. It's almost as if two parts of a single program - one on the inside and one on the outside - just... sort of "joined up" and came to life, so to speak.***
M.LEMAY: Talk to me like I'm 5. What does that mean?
V.DACOSTA: It's going to sound nuts...
M.LEMAY: Try me. I'm getting used to it.
V.DACOSTA***: It's almost as if some sort of rogue bot or AI program is actually "living" in the network, so to speak. Moving freely around our servers. And somehow it has found a way to slip in and out of our network without tripping our alarms.*** We only managed to notice this time because we were going over the packet logs one by one today.
-Last messge sent at 3:34pm-
V.DACOSTA: You there?
-Last message sent at 3:54pm-
M.LEMAY: Sorry, I had to make a phone call. Your last message sent me spinning.
V.DACOSTA: Thought it might. Any ideas?
M.LEMAY: One. I hope I'm wrong.
V.DACOSTA: OK.
M.LEMAY: Have you done any research into Digital Cognizance Imprints?
V.DACOSTA: I studied the Kaczmarek case about a year ago. Is that what you mean?
M.LEMAY: That, but possible on a far greater scale. Are you coming to the meeting tonight?
V.DACOSTA: Sounds like I should.
M.LEMAY: You'd better.
V.DACOSTA: K. See you there.
Okay so let’s unpack that.
We have 17 simultaneous attacks from 17 different sources on 17 targets AT THE SAME TIME.
As if some sort of program joined up and came to life. A rogue AI living in the network.
While it’s possible that these attacks are Juno, I just don’t believe it is.The symbolism involved with the repetition of the number 17 is just too glaringly obvious to ignore.
Juno even mentions at the end of Black Flag that
‘Signal is still too weak, and I am spread thin. Unfocused. Like static’
This wasn’t Juno, It was Desmond.
And let’s not forget, Desmond learned from the best.
Desmond discusses this with his father in voice messages left on his phone, Clay passed on all his knowledge directly to Desmond before disappearing:
‘he PASSED THEM to me.. just before he died, or got deleted, or whatever. Everything he’d learned, everything he’d seen’
‘right before he vanished, clay passed on his memories. To me… he showed me everything HE had seen, and lived through’
TL;DR – Desmond Miles is alive.
The Hidden Twelve:
In Unity one of the security breach memos reads thusly.
\122\145\147\151\156\141\112\165\156\157:TheWorldIsTendingThis.BePatient.InDueTimeAllWillPl ugin.NoneWillLeave.NotOne.NotClayNotDesmondNot.All AreHereWithMe.AllLiveInBliss.SoMustYouDoAsWell.SoMustYouAll.SamplesCollect.Dat aProvide.ToReviveMyRace.TheHiddenTwelve.ToRemakeMyWorld.
Now it’s pretty hard to be sure what Juno was referencing here but I believe it refers to the twelve apples of eden that the Isu sent skyward, as mentioned in AC3.
The apples weren’t just used to control humans but they (Isu) discovered that if enough people willed a thing to occur at the same time then the apple made it so.To protect against the coronial mass ejection, the Isu sent one skyward.
‘We resolved to send one into the sky where it might illuminate us all. Once placed, a sentence would be uttered: Make us safe’
‘But it never came to be. We sent a dozen of them skyward – but there was no way to maintain control. To direct the beam. To enthrall the world. To speak the words’
Why would these need to be sought out? Well Juno says it herself
‘when enough sat in thrall and were told to believe their thoughts took on form’ – (edit) Juno discussing how the apples of eden were used to control humans, but another use was discovered in that they could manifest thoughts if enough people willed it at the same time.
Further
However, in Origins we look to the sky, at a number of stone circles. 12 stone circles to be exact, and what is revealed once all are discovered?
Segment 6 of the Empirical Truth
You can read it all here: https://assassinscreed.fandom.com/wiki/The_Empirical_Truth#Eesfet%20Oon-m'Aa%20Poo
Why is this important? Because it literally spells out how to change reality, to alter time.
“It could escape the code*. It could do that leap, and make possible a decision that defies the order of things that are.”*
The Empirical Truth
The current modern day has been foreshadowed for a long time.
Put simply, the Isu have been playing with time and twisting the fate of the world.
Why is this important? Because in doing so they broke something.
They used their machines to find Desmond, in a desperate bid to stop the coronial mass ejection and to save the world. But it was never meant to be.
‘he saw Minerva and Juno, and Tinia trying to work out their… calculations’.
‘They had these tools.. these powerful machines… that could predict POSSIBLE FUTURES… not what was GOING to happen, but what uh… what COULD happen… probabilities. And … well they spent a lot of energy trying to figure out what was the most likely scenario for the future. Their’s and ours. And in the end I guess they figured I was their most likely candidate… some guy named Desmond, living at the beginning of the twenty-first century of the Common Era… but which Desmond was the right one? Because, you see, probability is a weird thing… it can branch out in so many ways… which version of me did they need? Was it the Desmond who got married early and had a son… the one who stayed single in New York .. oor was it the Desmond who moved to San Francisco to be a waiter or maybe it was the me who never ran away from his parents in the first place. The First Civ had countless variations to chose from but… in the end.. the lucky one was me. I’m the Desmond their best calculations spit out… I’m the Desmond they left their messages for… and I guess I have to live with that honor.’
- Desmond Miles discussing Clays memories in voice recordings
So what is the Empirical Truth? Well it broadly refers to the idea that everything is a simulation, nothing is real.
Edit: To clarify here, To say nothing is real I believe this refers to the flow of time.
“Time is a system that defines what comes to be. That is how we understand it.
The Code is Time, and Time is Code. As you scratch the surface and uncover the truth, ask yourself if there is something more? Something else.”
That suggests that time is flexible, the flow of time and physics to the Isu are fluid, laws can be bent and broken.
It also speaks to the idea that the Isu predictions that led to Desmond activating the orb and preventing the coronial mass ejection were flawed. They thought that outcome would save the world, but:
“Then, on the morning of December 22nd 2012, humankind was graced with yet another morning. They never knew that on the previous day, the world almost ended.
We thought that would have been enough.
And it was until it wasn't.
Time is unyielding. It always corrects itself*.”*
We’re also introduced to the idea of time as nodes, and that there are fixed points in time that cannot be altered:
“Nodes are static, changeless.
And the wave function collapses the paths into nodes which branch out. Again, and again, and again.
And so I wonder. Can you feel the wave collapsing, trying to course correct Desmond's act of defiance?
The incoming node needs the world to end.”
“The node is near.
Perhaps you knew. Perhaps you felt it too.
That the world is closing in on you.“
It’s clear that Desmond, under Isu instruction was attempting to stop what cannot be stopped. That the incoming node NEEDS the world to end because that is as it should be, however there’s an out.
Layla is given the direction to:
“(Break the code. Break the Node.)”
Additionally it is made clear that the Isu removed from humans the ability to truly understand time, the 6th sense.
“We removed our ability to read those stories from your original template.”
“We have six senses, you have five. Can you guess the one missing?
[...] (Overload your mind's capacity)“
“The real cage is not around you. It is in you. Your mind will not allow you to wander in uncharted territories.
A Faraday cage, for the mind. A concealed strait jacket.”
And something I consider extremely important going into Valhalla:
“The Animus was humankind’s first unconscious attempt to explain what it could not see. Understanding genetic memories, an eye into history.
But the Animus bears a fatal flaw. It follows the rules from those who embrace Order just as we did. It allows you to witness – but not alter.
Your Animus is different. As is the mind that imagined it. It could escape the code. It could do that leap, and make possible a decision that defies the order of things that are.
Wake up.
Be the chaos that comes to be. Gods are just like you and me.
Remember.
Nothing is real.
Everything is permitted.”
And then we’re introduced to Alethia, an Isu who believes that they have meddled long enough, and humans deserve to know the truth. And thus we’re put through a series of simulations showing the difference between order, chaos, and the flaws of the Isu.
And Layla has recovered the staff of Hermes, a piece of eden that managed to preserve Kassandras life until she passed it to Layla and can (possibly?) alter time.
The (Possible) Future
The way I see the Modern Day moving forward in Valhalla is something of a hard reset on the ‘end of the world’ narrative. Or as Darby has suggested, to set us up for the next game.
Layla will close the loop on the incoming node and prevent another world ending catastrophe, probably in the context of ‘Ragnarok’ and probably in a DLC.
Will this mean a new MD protagonist in the future? Yes I think so. Layla has (or will) have served her role by the end of Valhalla.
Who will it be? I think it’s likely to be Elijah. Desmonds Son.
I also think its probably that before the end of Valhalla we see Desmond or interact with him in some form, how that plays out for him I don’t know.
Personally I’d like to see Layla go back in time and actually interact with him in 2012.
It’s possible that somehow with a combination of the Koh I Noor, Ankh and Shroud of eden Desmond could be made corporeal at some point in the future but I think the only person with a vested interest in that would be either William Miles or Elijah.
It’s also possible that narratively, whatever does Layla in-Animus could physically alter time and work as an in-universe ret-con to prevent desmond from ever touching the orb in the first place in parallel with some other preventative measure to stop the world from ending. Although I reckon that would be pretty weak to completely ret-con everything since the end of AC3.
Basically with the story in the current state it’s in, I think all bets are off and pretty much all the cards are on the table in terms of what can be done, and what is likely to be done.
I’m excited to see what happens and where we go from here!
Thanks for reading 😊
Edit: fixed a few typos
Edit 2: Updated a few things for clarification. (still vague as mud I know)
Edit 3: updated a few more little bits for clarification after discussion
submitted by AzzyAus to assassinscreed [link] [comments]

Skyblock: Potato War 3 (FINALE) Entire Script

"There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare." -Sun Tzu, The Art of War
DISCLAIMER
The following events were done by deranged individuals with complete disregard for their own physical and mental well-being.
Please do not attempt this at home.
My name is Technoblade and I'm the fastest skyblock player alive.
To the outside world I'm an ordinary Minecraft youtuber, but secretly I've spent the last year fighting to maintain my spot as the number 1 potato farmer in Skyblock.
Opposing me is Squid Kid, the former rank number 1. A man whose obsession with potatoes is rivalled only by my own.
In my last video I talked about how the newly added rabbit pet could at its highest level could increase the amount of potatoes my minions made by 30% but I knew Squid would watch my video to find out my tactics so I left out a few of the finer details.
See the boost from rabbit pets isn't the same as flycatchers or catalysts, you have to be there.. on the island for the boost to take effect. Once you log off or go to somewhere else on skyblock that boost is gone until you come back.
But while I was experimenting with the rabbit pet I uncovered a few interesting facts about how the boost works for instance:
Rabbit pets can boost other people's minions if you're visiting their island as a guest, but minions can only get boosted by one rabbit at a time so you cant just get 20 accounts with rabbit pets for infinite potatoes. The third thing I found was the most interesting and this is what Squid Kid didn't know. If there's multiple rabbit pets on the same island which one boosts the minions? You'd think it'd be the strongest one but it's not!
If there's multiple rabbits the minions will be boosted by the one belonging to whoever's been on the island the longest. So hypothetically speaking if someone went to their island with their level 100 rabbit when someone was already there with the level 1 one, they wouldn't get their rabbit's 30% boost, they'd get the level 1's 0.3% boost.
Unrelated fun fact, did you know that squid kid's island is still open to visitors? Yeah that's right we're doing this again...
So I bought a new Minecraft account, slapped a level 1 legendary rabbit pet onto it and shipped it off to Squid Kid's AFK pool! I knew I had to maintain absolute secrecy- I didn't even tell my goons about this because I knew once Squid got wind of this it would be trivially easy for him to prevent it.
I waited until the day I released the second Potato War video to start, after that video tourists flocked to Squid Kid's island to see it for themselves, my alt blended right in.
Everday my alt would sit there in Squid Kid's afk pool to maintain rabbit priority in fact it usually had the rabbit pet deactivated during the day since you don't need to have the pet out to keep priority and since the rabbit was deactivated if squid checked his minions during the day he'd find nothing wrong with them.
But every night around 2am Squid would leave his account AFK and go to bed and that's when I'd strike overriding his rabbit pet boost for the rest of the night and yes I memorized Squid's sleeping schedule, I mean at this point how is that even a question of course I did but unfortunately complications soon arose.
Squid and I had both been rushing to get our rabbit pets to level 100 and I had a pretty heavy lead and I figured it'd take Squid several more weeks to get his there, but unfortunately and unknwon third party got there first and sold his level 100 legendary rabbit directly to Squid.
Of course he didn't forget to brag about this victory on stream.
Squid: "Oh my oh my, you know who doesn't have a level 100 pet, yikes he has a level 99 rabbit pet, he's poor, it's only level 99 I'm screaming ahhhhhhhhh."
Little did he know that while he was flexing on stream, my alt was right there on his island overriding his level 100 bonus.
But my problems didn't stop there you see, Squid got an alt account to AFK with his rabbit pet on his island while he was doing other things and since the alt account had no reason to ever leave his island it became much harder to keep control of pet priority and sometimes when I had priority he'd end up kicking everyone from his island because it was too full for his alt account meaning I had lost priority for the rest of the day.
I was going to counter this by spending $30 to buy his alt MVP++ since that rank can bypass guesting limits #ad but unfortunately on March 20th my alt was kicked and Squid's island was closed forever.
The jig was up but by that point I'd already achieved my objective. The two weeks it took to realize what was going on cost him about 2 million potatoes.
Bit of a tangent but I'm pretty sure I lost a few fans over the rabbit pet because everyone would just be hanging out, they'd just be chilling on my island with their level 30 rabbits activated and I'd come see that and I don't care if it's intentional or not but they're sabotaging my potatoes! So I'd kick them out of my island to get priority back and they they'd come back 10 seconds later like:
"Why did you kick me Technoblade? I just wanted to meet my favourite youtuber :("
And I'd be like woah woah relax dude relax it's not a big deal, I have a really good reason I just can't tell you because it is a secret and then you're like:
"It's okay Technoblade I know the reason.. It's because you hate ME SPECIFICALLY I'll just go leave forever now."
And I'm just like WAIT come back noooo so Squid closed his island which meant I couldn't sabotage him anymore, but what if I told you that was also part of my master plan?
You ever noticed how my island has been open to visitors during the potato war? In the last video I explained:
"I made an AFK machine on my island so planted potatoes would keep growing even why I wasn't online."
I was actually using an advanced technique there called LYING, this clip of the AFK pool was from November, I didn't even make the manual farm until January!
You might recall from the first Potato War video depending on whether there's people on the island or not. Because if no one is on the island, Hypixel's not gonna waste resources keeping that server online so they are going to close the server and then when you come back they're gonna go oh well it's been 7 hours and it's gonna run a calculation and give you 7 hours worth of stuff.
But as we've seen before that calculation isn't perfect, so I ran an experiment and I found that when someone's on my island I get 10% more potatoes! And there was only one thing boosting my minions by 10%.. the Farm Crystal.
The farm crystal is an external buff so it's not included in the offline calculation so if there's at least one person on my island and Squid's island is empty I'd get 10% more potatoes! Now it was easy to get people to AFK on my island, what was difficult was getting people off of Squid's island.
You see even months after the first potato war video came out when the initial hype was starting to die down a bit there would be at least one of my own viewers AFK on Squid's island every night. You know.. as a joke! Sometimes I would be on Squid's island on an alt account and I'd see someone in the chat:
"I'm gonna go AFK to help Technoblade win the potato war!"
And I'd beg them, I'd be like "no dude please, please he fixed that months ago, that doesn't hurt him anymore and they'd be like:
"I'M HELPING"
and AFK all, Squid Kid was getting boosted by my own viewers and there was nothing I could do to stop them because what was I going to do, announce that AFKing helped him? Then even MORE people would AFK! I realised that the only way to stop this from happening would be to get Squid to close his own island to visitors without him realising that that's what I wanted all along.
It took four long months but it finally happened, but anyways back to this tweet, so Squid says he closed his island because someone filled his potion system with rookie axes.
A common trolling method in SkyBlock is to fill people's inventories with useless items like boats, but the rookie axe is even worse for players like Squid Kid who use the skyblock add-ons mod which has a feature which makes it very difficult to drop tools out of your inventory.
The point is to stop people from accidentally dropping weapons worth millions of gold, but it also applies to the rookie axe sold in shops for 12 coins, so basically someone dumping a ton of rookie axes into your hopper system is the worst thing someone can do to you in skyblock.
Now I've always been interested in psychology, in fact I almost majored in it so after 6 months of stalking Squid, I had developed a bit of a psychological profile of this man.
I know how he TALKS, I know how he THINKS and when I saw this tweet I instantly knew that thiis man was LYING. Now don't get me wrong I completely believe that somebody dropped rookie axes into his hoppers because it was me but that's not the real reason he closed his island after all I'd been dropping rookie axes into his hoppers for weeks, but he sent that tweet eight minutes after he kicked my alt.
So I get to thinking, why would Squid lie about that? And I realize Squid knows I monitor his tweets, but what he doesn't know is that that was my alt account from his perspective that could have been some random guy with a rabbit and if that was the case I'd have no idea rabbits could be used that way.
As such him lying in that tweet could only mean one thing, he's about to sabotage ME! So i held a stakeout on my island and guess what I found a few hours later, a brand new skyblock account AFKing with a level 1 legendary rabbit. Truthfully I could have stopped squid before he even joined my island but I wanted to catch him in the act because I'm always getting comments saying:
"OMG Technoblade why are you so mean to Squid?"
They don't understand, this is WAR there's no holding back! I know that and Squid knows that, the only difference is that I'm 20 steps ahead, he's playing skyblock while I'm playing Deathnote.
He thinks he can outsmart me with my own strategies because he is yet to realise that he is but a puppet and I the puppeteer DANCE POTATO BOY! DANCE!
So anyways I got on my secret alt account and sent his secret alt account a party invitation and then I DMed him on discord Yo dude accept my invite!
Squid: "Well this is awkward.."
He actually did accept my invite and we had a lovely conversation and then I BANNED him from my island get OUT of here you trued again with another account a few days later, I don't have any proof that this account is him but look at that username "Stinky Bozo" That's a pretty unusual word in fact I've only heard one person say it:
Squid: "Bozo, Bozo, you are Bozo Bozo, nice one Bozo, you're a freaking Bozo Bozo"
Yeah that's right get out of here, I did eventually close my island, but not before I made sure I wouldn't lose potatoes.
After that I moved on to the next phase of my master plan if I wanted to farm more potatoes I'd have to start farming pumpkins, but wait a minute Technoblade, that's the wrong vegetable! Wait.. what do you mean it's a fruit?
Whatever at this point we pretty much maxed out the output of our minions the only thing left to work on was the speed we could farm potatoes by hand! The farming skill gives more crops as you level up so I decided to grind it to the highest level.
I did the math and found that farming potatoes is so incredibly inefficient at levelling up farming that it was actually more worthwhile to build a whole pumpkin farm.
I began the construction of a pumpkin farm large enough that by the time I finished farming it in full, the pumpkins at the beginning would have already regrown. I don't even want to tell you how long it took to build this.
And so I began farming day after day at times I'd farmed for so long without break that the people watching thought that I was botting, word of my pumpkin farming soon reached Squid who began farming pumpkins himself, but he only saw the surface level of what I was doing.
You see I wasn't just levelling up my farming skills I was also levelling up multiple legendary rabbits. There's a reason I wanted to stop people from AFKing on Squid's island even after he started AFKing himself and it's because it's almost IMPOSSIBLE for one man to AFK every hour of the day because servers restart, the game can update, your internet can go out and if you're asleep or doing something else you'll be missing out on those bonuses until you get back.
Even the most dedicated individual might only average 20 hours of AFK coverage per day and those 4 hours alone without the rabbit pet and farming crystal cost you 100 thousand potatoes and over time, that adds up.
To fix this flaw, I got multiple level 100 rabbits some leveled myself and others purchased for tens of millions of coins and then distributed to goons in diverse timezones. I set my island so only guild members could visit and I had my head goon code a discord bot that automatically pinged them within five seconds of the rabbit account leaving my island at which point one of them could log into the island themselves and boost my minions until I got back.
After a few weeks we both reached farming level 50. On May 4th there was a pet update which added among other things the elephant pet which at its highest level could increase crop yield by 25%. Ordinarily a buff to manual farming would be bad for me since it allows squid to catch up that much more quickly, but I had a plan.
The reason farming potatoes by hand is so inefficient is because when you break potatoes they don't grow back so 2/3 of the time you spend farming is spent replanting the potatoes you just harvested. Squid Kid and his viewers spent many hours trying to find a workaround to this even building an elaborate redstone machine in an attempt to somewhat automate replanting, but in the end they failed to find a better method and continued farming normally:
Squid: "I should be able to plant five (potatoes) at the same time, why is it so dang slow it takes forever"
What if I told you I found a way, you see back in January I had an idea, what if I had the minions plant for me. At the time this was impractical for two reasons,
One, I didnt have enough farming bonuses for it to be worth sacrificing the minions normal output, but this was solved when i got farming level 50 secondly potato minions were simply too slow, but since then they've buffed fly catchers, added the rabbit pet and added foul flesh, a new fuel source which buffs minion speeds by 90% even then the potato minions weren't quite fast enough to keep up, but I thought to myself if they're only going to be planting they don't need to waste an upgrade slot on a super compactor, so I spent another 250 million coins to get 48 total flycatchers.
Squid and I both started farming potatoes but his method could get at most 200 thousand potatoes per hour whereas my method with double flycatchers even after subtracting the amount the minions would have made themselves could get 410 thousand potatoes per hour. For the next three weeks Squid farmed hours every day but I was farming at the same time.
Squid: "What are the odds he's farming right now, five bits I bet techno is doing the same thing just has like a 130% faster way to do it"
In this time I expanded my lead by another 5 million potatoes, but at this point Squid and I had been farming potatoes for almost a year and we were still farming hours every day with no end in sight neither of us wanted this to continue so we came to an agreement.
Whoever got to 500 million potatoes first would win the potato war. Hypixel even pitched in saying he'd give a surprise to the winner. Now I was only at 300 million potatoes at this point, but I figured I had this in the bag I mean I've been tracking Squid's potato count, I accounted for his afk coverage by having the discord bot track his alt accounts logins and I knew how much he was farming by hand because I was monitoring his farming experience.
With a 45 million potato lead and a farming method twice as fast as his own, what could possibly go wrong?
JUNE 6
Things go very wrong, it was just a small update with a few quality of life changes, you know like an enchantment which replants crops after you farm them and an item which automatically compacts items in your inventory so you don't have to spend time on that. You know, two minor changes which just so happened to buff Squid's farming method from 200 thousand potatoes to 1.2 million potatoes (per hour) and my farming method becomes WORTHLESS.
Suddenly my 45 million potato lead goes from insurmountable to yes Squid could farm that in a couple days, Squid starts putting in crazy hours:
Squid: "If I do 12 hours a day can he keep up absolutely not, people say Technoblade never dies but I'm putting him in the grave."
Meanwhile I'm sitting here in shambles, I was out here with my lab coat on doing the science coming up with new never before seen potato farming techniques and this man just goes admins please replanting is too hard and they buff his farming method six-fold!
Was that it? Eight months of plotting and scheming just to fail in the final stretch? NO i couldn't except that, I was going to win this war whatever the cost. I immediately drank three months of mystical mushroom soup and got to work expanding my old potato farm. A project which would take 25 hours over the next couple days.
I knew I was playing the game as intended when I realised that the only reason I ever put on one of the strongest armour sets in the game was to use its 3% speed bonus to optimize tilling dirt. For the next two weeks I did nothing except eat, sleep and farm potatoes, there were only three interuptions each of which cost me millions of potatoes. The first was a dentist appointment and the second was when I had to play in Minecraft Championships.
Squid: "What do I message him? Was it worth your time losing MCC? ehehehheheehhe" "It took me 2 hours to lose MCC but it'll cost you 9 months to lose the potato war, kayyyyyy RELAX, RELAX, hello?"
Besides that there was only one other time:
"I had to go to the store the other day, I had to interrupt my potato farming because my dad was like hey can you go to the store and pick up my medicine and I was like, can I really tell him that I'm not getting his medicine because I need to farm potatoes? Can I really? Look I'm an atheist, but when God sends me to hell I want him to hesitate, okay? I want him to hesitate for a few seconds.
But Squid was also farming several hours a day and he had evem found a way to maxmize his afk coverage. He started sleeping with his headphones on and had his goons wake him up via discord call whenever his alt left his island.
As someone with a discord bot tracking his online activity I can tell you right now that that man is telling the truth. He was waking up multiple times per night, I don't know why he didn't just use backups like me, he actually revealed to me later on that one of my original goons betrayed me and gave him one of our internal documents and the list of backup pet users is literally RIGHT there at the top of the first page I have no idea how he missed it.
But anywas squid logged off an hour and a half ago, he should be entering REM sleep just about now it would be a real shame if someone woke him. I didn't actually wake him up because I wasn't sure if intentional sleep deprivation was legally considered torture or not so I decided to shelf that strategy for the time being.
And after sacrificing two weeks of my life I finally reached 500 million potatoes.
"WE WIN THEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESE"
Squid was shocked:
Squid: "He's at 499? No he's not, dude there is actually like, it's not possible! NOOOOO it's not, this can't be reaaal!"
Squid had been certain that he was right on my tail.
Squid: "I don't know how fr behind I am, 100% less than 30 million"
And yet when I won the war I had a lead of over 88 million potatoes. How did i do it? It's just as Sun Tzu says:
"All war is deception." -Sun Tzu
You see I knew after the second potato war video things were gonna get more difficult from here on out, because at this point Squid had a full on organization backing him he had goons, a cabal of billionaires funding his every move, 100s of stream viewers on how to farm potatoes more quickly and reporting on my every move so in that video I prepared my final trick. I hid my true potato count.
The number shown in my video wasn't edited, but it didnt include the millions of potatoes left uncollected in my minions. I also said that my minions now produce 1.58 million potatoes, but they're actually producing 1.75 million because the rabbit pet doesn't actually boost your minions by 30%, it boosts them by 43% why? I don't know it's probably bugged and Squid couldn't realise the real number when he got a level 100 rabbit of his own because he was being sabotaged!
But the biggest reason my lead expanded by that much was because over those two weeks, while Squid averaged 8 hours of farming per day, I averaged 11!
Squid: "I just can't believe how much he's farming."
MenacingBanana: "The admins were legit saying that Techno is just like so focused, it baffled them at how like just insane he was he had no breaks!"
Squid: "I swear to god this Technoblade dude is focused on another level"
Towards the very end Squid had one of his goons write a program to chart how much I was farming by tracking how much experience my elephant pet had, but by then it was too late. Once I won the war there was nothing left to do except celebrate my victory with grace and humility.
Squid: "OHHH MY GOOOOSH he's doing a little emote on me ooohh my not like this come onnnn, was was this necessary?"
"Watch me dance Squid Kid you looose! You lose the WAR!"
After the war the admins added a temporary NPC to the skyblock hub, the potato king it gave out a new talisman which boosted potato minions by 5%, a basket for the top 1000 potato farmers and to me, the POTATO CROWN engraved upon it:
"All men can see the tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved." -Sun Tzu, The Art of War
That NPC is gone now, I took too long to edit this video! I gained a lot from the Potato War; patience, discipline, carpal tunnel. I guess my main regret is that I bribed Squid's discord admin to give my alt permission to see into his secret text channels and then HE NEVER USED THEM ALL YEAR!
With the war over Squid took down his potato minions and my fields have gone unfarmed while we were enemies I still respect Squid Kid, I understand now that it is only with a worthy rival that once can reach their fullest potential, while he may have lost the war, he's gone from 70 subscribers to having tens of thousands of fans so it can't be said that he's lost completely. For my part I've realized now that rank number isn't an achievement, it's a prison which forces you to dedicate your life to defending a temporary title, but now with the war finally over... I'm free
*Wandering Nomad plays whilst Techno begs for subs*
Well I guess we are done here :) If you got down this far I wouldn't mind an upvote, I spent too long doing this.
submitted by ethwoo to Technoblade [link] [comments]

Sports Betting Odds

If you are brand new to gambling, among those very first affairs which you ought to do is study how sports betting odds get the job done. It truly is critically essential as it enables one to fully grasp just how probable an event is to come about, and also exactly what your prospective winnings will probably undoubtedly be. In the beginning, it might seem perplexing, but study our guidebook and then let's clarify it for you personally. In gaming, chances signify the ratio involving the numbers by celebrations into some bet or guess. So, chances of 3 to 1 inch signal the very first bash (the bookmaker) bets three times the total staked from the next party (that the bettor).
Just how Can Sports bet Odds Perform?
Sports betting chances are intended to, so in a glimpse, provide people a notion of just how likely it really is that every team will triumph in addition to just how much you will produce using a prosperous wager on such final result. To put it differently, you need to utilize these to have yourself a fast concept of this underdog, and your favoured.
To make a decision as to what chances they supply, bookmakers consider a reach of facets. This may possibly incorporate everything from exactly what additional Sportsbooks are presenting right through to the consequences of prior matchups. They will fix those chances in real-time, dependent on facets such as harms and also the current weather, in addition to that the quantity of cash supplied by bettors on just about every final result.
What Exactly Is Probability?
Even the most introductory amount, gambling supplies you with all the skills to anticipate the results of the particular celebration, also when a forecast is not right, and you will acquire more money. To almost any specific occasion, there really is a particular selection of results. Simply take rolling out a stunt for example.
If a person rolls a dice, then you can find just six potential consequences. Hence, in the event you gamble that anyone rolls a '1 ', then there will be really a 16.67% opportunity which will take place. What gambling chances simply do is demonstrate the way the event is really to occur. so, a portion, i.e. 4/7, as the huge majority additionally offers you the capacity to look at them as decimals. Yet again, why do not we discuss? We all will eventually become evident.
Odds - What to Pick?
Selecting which arrangement of chances to produce if online sports betting is down to some question of private taste. This may most likely, however, perhaps not at all times, function as the form of chances associated by at which your home is. We have to find most of the sports betting internet sites give the choice to decide on which form of chances that you wish to see if you are taking a look at setting a bet. In addition, there are chances calculators out there that are able to enable you to switch between several kinds of odds. The very main point is the fact that it will not matter which kind of chances you prefer to make use of: you will not get or shed additional dollars by deciding upon a particular means of seeing chances. It hence creates the best way to pick the one which you're most relaxed together and utilize it if potential.
Strategies for Putting a Wager
You learn more on the topic of calculating betting, along with different techniques they can be displayed, then you should use this advice in your favor if setting the next wager. Under, you are going to discover a couple of our best hints for employing your new-found awareness about this subsequent bet you put!
  1. Do Not Be Scared to Look Around
Many Sportsbooks will upgrade their chances predicated on real-life effects quicker than some others. Equipped with all the wisdom the way to exactly calculate prospective winnings, then you are able to find out exactly what constitutes the absolute most rewarding wager for you personally, in case you wind up profitable.
  1. Check out frequently
It is crucial that you maintain a watch out for your likelihood, preferably utilizing a smartphone or tablet in the event that you should be about the go. In the event you notice chances switching fast in one path then it really is probably something that has shifted (e.g. weather conditions, spot, or some essential accident). This may possibly influence that which you right back into the competition, or how far you really bet.
  1. Gauge the danger
Utilize exactly what you understand about chances to discover that which you look at as a decent degree of hazard in case gambling in an underdog. $1 wagered on 20/1 chances, as an instance, somewhat very low hazard stake regarding maximum drawback. Many bettors could but feel uneasy gambling $100 on 100/1 chances (in spite of the massive possible benefit) since the chances are stacked so heavily towards you personally.
  1. Remain in the understand
Be sure that you benefit from insider understanding. Bookies, say, may possibly only possibly not be around date up what is happening in upcoming NFL fittings in contrast to a super fan who considers breaking-news reports. This really is the reason it could be of help to bet to a game you are a real lover of or do your homework before setting your stake.
submitted by ofagames to u/ofagames [link] [comments]

GTA Online Casino Inside Track Horse Racing glitch SOLO works for PC (maybe XBOX AND PS4 as well?)

  1. Go to Diamond Casino
  2. Walk up to the cashier and exchange for chips if you don't have any
  3. Go to Inside Track Horse Racing
  4. Click on Place Bet (Single Event)
  5. Check horse odds
  6. Disable internet connection
  7. Bet any amount on any horse and it will say unable to establish connection to rockstar servers
  8. Enable internet connection and bet max on your horse
  9. Repeat until you have enough money
This is reviving the reset horse odds glitch that used to exist before this was patched.
Picture guide here: https://imgur.com/gallery/fuGSpfW
Instructions are pretty simple. Use any method to disable/enable your internet connection whether it is pulling the plug or using a 3rd party program it is up to you. Just repeat step 5/6/7 until you get your desired odds. Make sure to reenable your internet connection before betting when your horse is favorable.
Note: You need to disable your internet when you are about to refresh the race (horse list). Reenable your internet when you have the horse you want to bet on. DO NOT have your internet disconnected for too long or it will kick you from the game. It shouldn't take too long to cycle through the line ups. Just do it quick and use a macro or a script.
For example if you see double evens (which is considered the worst lineup) bet any amount on any horse (provided that you have already disabled your internet). Cycle through the list until you find a good lineup and before placing a bet, reenable your internet.
DISCLAIMER: I am only posting this as a guide and I bear no responsibility if you lose money betting. This glitch works as is and does not guarantee you a win in any way. You are just pushing the odds into your favor easier.
Use this link for how to disable/reenable your internet connection: https://www.reddit.com/gtaglitches/comments/gt3vgm/pcimproved_apartment_glitch_improvement_bette
If you don't know which horse to bet use this guide:
https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
EDIT: Easiest way to block connection is through Windows Defender Firewall. If you are not tech savvy enough I or someone can create a batch file to do this all at once or even an AHK file but here are the steps to do this.
  1. Open Windows Defender Firewall by pressing start menu and typing "Windows Defender Firewall" (without quotes) and it should be the first option.
  2. On the left side click Advanced Settings
  3. On the left side click Outbound Rules
  4. On the right side click New Rule...
  5. Select Program
  6. Select your GTA5.exe in Steam folder or Epic Games folder
  7. Select Block the Connection
  8. Profile can be all checked
  9. Type in the name such as GTA block
  10. On the right side Enable/Disable the rule to connect/disconnect
submitted by fortnite-reddit to gtaglitches [link] [comments]

[Cryoverse] The Last Precursor 005: A Terran's Mercy

The Last Precursor is a brand new HFY-exclusive web-serial which focuses on the exploits of the last living human amidst a galaxy of unknown aliens. With his species all but extinct and only known as the ancient Precursors, how will Rodriguez survive in this hostile universe? Make sure to read the earlier chapters first if you missed them!
Join the TLP Discord!
Previous Part
Part 001
.......................................
Fleet Commander Orgon the Unkillable, leader of the Tarus II subjugation force, stands behind First Officer Megla as she browses countless records inside the Dragon Breath's database. Her reptilian slit-eyes flick from right to left as she scrolls through countless walls of text, searching for the information her commander requested.
"Still nothing?" Orgon asks, as he evaluates the information she currently has onscreen.
"I've only had an hour, Fleet Commander. Even if I had months, I still might not be able to scan all of our records. The best I can do is skim while searching for references to Terrans or Humans. I haven't yet found anything."
Orgon exhales through his nose. "Blast. There's nothing worse than facing an enemy we know nothing about. This Terran is no ordinary foe. I can see in his eyes that he's slain countless battle-hardened warriors. We can't afford to annoy or trifle with a beast like him, especially when he possesses such a powerful vessel."
Officer Megla continues to tap on dozens of buttons as she peruses the Dragon Breath's records. However, she also shows her intelligence by splitting her attention perfectly while conversing with her commander. "Kyargh! Commander, if I may. I suggest we execute a tactical retreat. We've already sent a coded transmission to the Thülvik. Since we haven't a chance of defeating the Terran's warship, we should take advantage of its immobility and leave. Our scans reveal its engines have degraded to non-operational status. With any luck, it won't be able to pursue us."
Orgon gazes at the back of Megla's head. "I can't do that. We've already failed the Thülvik once today. Twice, if you count allowing that advanced stealth vessel to escape our grasp. A third humiliation might result in an execution for me and a court martial for all of the bridge crew. We must make inroads with the Terran to bring him and his crew to our side. If we can present the Thülvik with even a hint of alliance with this vessel's owner, we will reap the rewards."
"I understand your position, Commander," Megla mutters, "but even so, we're fooling around with volatile gamma-rays. This Terran is extremely dangerous and ruthlessly calculating. At the start of the conversation, it seemed as if he hadn't even heard of the Kraktol, yet by the end, he had us dancing in his palm. Even with a vessel like his, that is no mean feat."
A moment of silence follows.
Commander Orgon narrows his eyes.
"...Hadn't even heard of the Kraktol."
"Commander?"
Megla glances back at the Commander, only to frown as she spots a look of intense concentration on his face.
Orgon the Unkillable strokes his scaled chin, his expression turning more complicated every second. "Who in the galaxy, especially in the adjacent sectors, knows nothing of the Kraktol? Is not our control of the Outer Rim growing tighter each year?"
The First Officer nods. "Kyargh! Of course, Commander. The claws of the Kraktol loom over the Fifth Spiral Arm. Ever since our acquisition of Rylon's Precursor shipyard, our advance has become unstoppable. None dare to oppose us. Even the Core worlds utter our name with fearful whispers."
Commander Orgon glances around the Dragon Breath's bridge, at the many officers and crew members dutifully following his commands.
"Indeed. The Thülvik might punish me for failing to wipe out our ancient enemies, but the Kessu pale in comparison to the value of this fleet. Perhaps I've been looking at this situation wrongly from the very beginning."
Her concentration broken, Officer Megla turns in her seat to stare up at her Commander. "I don't follow."
"Think about it," Orgon mutters. "This Terran... how could his people enter our space without any of us knowing? How could he acquire such a highly advanced vessel under our guarded watch? It's not as if he flew the Juggernaut into the cloud and held position there. He must have found it within the last several years. Perhaps he and his crew have been working to restore its functionality."
"More importantly," Orgon continues, "perhaps he didn't. Officer Megla. Continue searching the records. This time, I want you to narrow your search parameters. Scan all collected information we've obtained regarding the Precursors. I want information regarding their appearance and biology. In particular, I want to know if we ever found out their species' name."
Megla's complexion turns ashen. Her bright-yellow scales dim noticeably, flushing orange from the dread circulating in her veins. "Commander... you can't mean..."
"Follow my orders," Orgon replies, his voice a whisper. He glances at a couple of other nearby officers, both engaged in a quiet conversation as they monitor the Juggernaut vessel's activities. "It's only a hunch, and I can't make any strategic decisions based off a mere whim. Assemble a kill-switch transmission with my hypotheses. Have it transmit directly to the Thülvik in the event of the Dragon Breath's imminent destruction. We don't want to send any unsubstantiated rumors her way without evidence, but if we should perish to this Terran, then we might as well give the Thülvik a lead."
Megla lowers her head. After a moment, she returns her attention to her computer's screen. "Yes, Commander. I understand."
Orgon pats his First Officer's shoulder. After staring vacantly at her screen for a moment, he turns away and heads to his Tactical Officer's station.
Could it be? Orgon wonders. Might the Terran be a Precursor himself? That should be impossible. If fifty thousand of their kind have survived, and with a vessel as advanced as their Juggernaut... the galaxy will soon experience a crisis. The Rodaks won't be able to stop them, nor will the Mallali, the Buzor, or the Avaru.
The Fleet Commander's jaw presses together tightly. I am no historian, but even I know the fables of the Precursor wars. Star-detonation-beams. Planet-obliteration-cannons. Some say the Precursors were a species hellbent on violence and carnage, while others claim they were all unscrupulous warriors who slew one another in countless bloody wars. I am... afraid. If the Kraktol are the first to face this Juggernaut vessel... we will also be the first to perish.
The first of many.
Orgon slows to a stop behind the red-scaled visage of his Chief Tactical Officer, Soren Mudrose. The female Kraktol dutifully carries out Orgon's previous orders, drawing up multiple possible lines of attack against the Precursor Juggernaut.
"Officer Soren. Report."
Orgon slows to a stop at her left. He scans all three of the giant holographic displays placed before his Tactical Officer and waits for her response.
The Tactical Officer turns to Orgon and presses her palms together respectfully. "Kyargh! Commander, I have not yet come up with any guaranteed successful attack vectors, but I've managed to complete a few that increase our odds of success to greater than five percent!"
Orgon nods. "Five percent... it will have to suffice. Elaborate."
Officer Soren rubs her claws together nervously. She turns back to her console and taps several buttons, bringing up virtual images of the Kraktol fleet and the lone Juggernaut vessel. "Based upon our scans, we estimate the Juggernaut only has somewhere between five and twenty-five weapons online. We don't know what their condition is, what ammunition they use, or what their offensive power is. However, I have increased the damage vectors of our enemy to the maximum, just to be safe."
"This is certainly the right time to overestimate our enemy," Orgon says, his tone grave. "Continue."
"Kyargh! I took the firepower of the Thülvik's personal flagship and gave it a damage output of one thousand percent. If we assume the Juggernaut vessel is capable of unleashing that much devastation, then every cannon-barrage will take out the critical systems of our mid-level battlecruisers, and cause severe damage to the Dragon's Breath. It should take three salvos from these long cannons positioned on its stern to obliterate our flagship. If we attempt to shield the rest of the fleet with our ship, we can rush forward at mark ten point seven, then travel along this vector here until..."
The Tactical Officer spends the next few minutes detailing several attack strategies to her commander. However, each one only makes his expression fall further and further.
"...It seems our best bet is your third strategy," Orgon mutters. "We must deploy as many of our interceptors and bombers as possible. With so few functioning weapons, the Juggernaut vessel might not be able to destroy them all in time before they arrive at its hangar bay. We can land inside and begin combat with its internal security forces."
Orgon's stomach begins to churn uneasily. "There's only one problem with that strategy, Officer Soren. We don't know how competent the Terrans are at hand-to-hand combat. We don't know how powerful their conventional weapons are, nor do we know anything regarding their military tactics. Even if we somehow end up outnumbering them four-to-one upon entering their hangars, they will still have a tremendous advantage against us."
Officer Soren sighs. "...Commander. Given how advanced the Juggernaut ship is, don't you think they will possess Combat Armor far surpassing ours? This is why I outlined a lander invasion as the third strategy and not the first. I believe that if we engage them in ground warfare, their technology will rip us to pieces even if their tactics prove sub-par. I can't emphasize enough how terrible of an end we might suffer if we fight them on their territory."
"We haven't many options," Orgon growls. "Aerial combat is a non-starter. The Juggernaut is likely a carrier-type battleship with countless interceptors, all of them superior to ours. Even if we assume 99% of them are nonfunctional scrap-heaps, we have to assume that just one highly advanced interceptor will reduce our whole fleet to rubble. You need only recall how the stealth-ship evaded the attacks of 100 interceptors for several minutes, and that was without any other allies providing covering fire. Furthermore, the stealth-vessel was even less-advanced than that Juggernaut, and therefore, its support craft."
Orgon's tongue pokes at the back of one of his teeth. The Commander shakes his head wryly as he imagines several possible ways his fleet could end up destroyed when confronting the Juggernaut.
"I'm afraid that of all the options you've laid out, Officer Soren, sending as many transport ships as possible to their hangar might be our best bet for pacifying the Terrans. If our enemies possess advanced Combat Armor, or if their weapons vastly outstrip ours, our troops will fall. Perhaps fleeing might be our best option for survival, but we will only end up delaying the inevitable. I would rather perish in glorious combat if it gives us a chance to take out these 'Terrans' while they're weak, than to give them time to repair their vessel. Once the Juggernaut's engines come online, the Thülvik herself will be at risk, as will the rest of the galaxy."
Orgon squeezes Officer Soren's shoulder. His touch conveys a deep sense of despair, as well as a resignation that his end may soon arrive.
"Do what you can to streamline your third plan, Officer Soren. Transmit the relevant tactics to the rest of our fleet. We will wait for the Terran's response. If their Admiral decides to attack, we must execute the invasion without delay. Every second wasted will mean countless deaths among our ranks."
Officer Soren nods quickly. "Kyargh! Yes, Commander! I will devote myself to this plan, even if it spells our bitter end."
"Good."
Orgon the Unkillable pulls his claws away from Soren's shoulder. He continues walking around the Bridge, chatting with one crewman after another, finalizing his plans.
Eventually, the Chief Navigator, Officer Gorlax Stormfang, speaks up. "Commander Orgon! We've received a hail from the Terran vessel."
Orgon glances at Gorlax from his position at a nearby console. Without delay, he walks away from the crew-member and trots over to his chair, then sits down.
It takes a few moments for the Commander to steady his nerves. Once he exhales his tension away, Orgon nods at Gorlax. "Onscreen."
Blip.
The viewscreen activates, this time showing six Terrans, all seated at different bridge stations, focused intently on their work. Admiral Rodriguez stands by himself, with nearly two dozen Kessu flanking him on his right and left. The tiny little creatures only serve to emphasize how tall and powerful-looking the Terran is, giving the Kraktol an unintentional frame of reference for his stature.
Decked out in a navy blue admiral outfit, Commander Rodriguez stands at attention, his hands folded behind his back.
"Commander Orgon. I've just returned from my hangar bay, where I met these Kessu for the first time. We had a discussion I would describe as... illuminating. Suffice it to say, I've found your claims of a stolen vessel laughable. Have you any explanation for lying to me? Any that I might find reasonable, I mean."
Orgon doesn't flinch. He assumes the air of a Commander, no longer bothering to kowtow to the Terran. "I do not, Admiral Rodriguez. I owe you nothing, as the galaxy is a treacherous place. Countless unscrupulous enemies lurk in the Void, so you can hardly blame me for attempting to minimize the risk to my crew and fleet. Would you not do the same if our roles were reversed?"
A faint smile appears on the Terran's face. "Let's cut to the chase. You lied to me, but I suffered no damages. I'll cross it off my tally just to be a good neighbor. My crew have always spoken of my generosity, so I'd hate to disappoint them. On the other hand, these Kessu have suffered greatly as a result of your violent ways. You attacked their world, murdered their families, and committed horrific acts of genocide against their people. As a man of principle, I find your actions abhorrent. What say you in your defense?"
Orgon tilts his snout slightly upward. The crocodile-alien glances at the Kessu with a barely-concealed look of hatred.
"My defense? Those little wretches skulking at your feet are the mortal enemies of the the Buzor and the Rodaks. Along with the Dakkit, the Varot, and countless other species among the Mallali, the Kessu turned my people into second-class citizens in the galactic courts. They hounded us, enslaved us, and tortured us. The infamous Sky Cats played the role of scientists and explorers, but in secret, they were barbarous monsters who left horrific atrocities in their wake no matter where they went."
Orgon continues. "My people want our revenge. We deserve it. We suffered endlessly for tens of thousands of years at the hands of the filthy Futh who have sought shelter on your vessel. I'll admit that I did lie at first. I lied that these children of the Sky Cats stole a vessel from me... but that was a mere technicality. They've stolen countless Kraktol lives in their pursuit of power, and when the time comes, they will stab you in the back as well. Destroying their species was a merciful act, one which will spare the galaxy much heartache in the future."
Orgon finishes speaking. He nods slowly at Admiral Rodriguez, waiting for the human's reply.
However, José doesn't immediately respond. Instead, he glances at the shivering figures of the cat-aliens beside him, all of whom stare at the Kraktol commander with terror-filled eyes.
"Hmm. I was not aware of your previous conflict with the Kessu," José murmurs. "Your argument is compelling. Have you any evidence of your claims?"
"Of course."
Orgon turns to his left to look at Megla, his First Officer.
"Have our synthmind compile a brief summary of events regarding the Kessu-Kraktol genocides during Alonis's Reign."
"Yes, Commander."
However, when Orgon returns his attention to the viewscreen, he instead witnesses José's hands moving a thousand miles per hour, manipulating countless holographic images in the air before himself.
"No need," Admiral Rodriguez replies, his voice as tranquil as a mid-summer's day. "My synthmind has already provided the information you mentioned."
Orgon blinks twice in surprise. "It did? How?"
The Admiral's smile widens. "How do you think, Commander? My synthmind is countless epochs more advanced than yours. Naturally, she extracted the information and compiled it for me."
The Terran speaks in a matter-of-fact way, but his words cause a deep, terrible chill to pervade Orgon's bones.
That... that can only mean... his synthmind must have hacked our data stores! And if it could breach such sensitive information, there's no reason the Terran can't simply seize control of my entire fleet.
Several realizations click into place in the back of Orgon's mind.
What else could this mean? Has the Terran been spying on us the whole time? Does he know about our planned attack vector? Does he even, perhaps, know that I suspect he's a Precursor?
Orgon doesn't voice any of his thoughts. The mere prospect of them being a reality threaten to give him conniptions.
In the worst-case scenario, the Terran wouldn't only be able to seize control of my vessel, but the entire Kraktol fleet! We would be powerless against him! He wouldn't need to fire a single shot to defeat us!
Orgon's yellow-tinted scales shift to orange as he fails to keep his emotions in check. A quick glance around the room reveals looks of shock among several of the senior officer's faces as they, too, come to similar realizations.
However, the Terran's expression flickers between boredom and disinterest. He scans the files stolen from Orgon's ship and nods.
"I see. It seems that either your claims are true, or you've known of my existence for hundreds of years and this is a truly clever and well-planned ruse. Not to insult your intelligence, but I find the latter far less likely than the former."
With a wry chuckle, José pushes away all of the holo-files with a wave of his hand.
"Commander Orgon. I understand that you have a blood-grudge against the Kessu. However, my fellow Terrans have a saying. 'Do not punish the son for the father's crimes.' These Kessu at my feet, have they harmed you? Have they brought ruin upon your cities? Have they enslaved your people? Tell me, Commander, what crimes these primitive, innocent villagers have committed against you."
Orgon balls his claws into fists. "Hmph. Innocent? They robbed my people of our livelihood for countless millennia. Perhaps not those specific Kessu, but their forefathers did. Everything the Kraktol have now, we earned ourselves. We obtained no remuneration from the Kessu. Why do you wish so desperately to protect the descendants of thieves, marauders, and pirates? Do Terrans not understand that evil runs in the blood?"
"I acknowledge your pain," José says. "That is why I have listened carefully to your grievances. Were I an uncaring soul, I'd have blasted you out of the sky. Let me instead revise my question. Do any Kessu remain who personally caused injuries to the Kraktol, or have they all perished to the annals of time?"
"Graugh!" Orgon snarls. "The ones who hurt my people are dead! They've all died! All that remain are their descendants, children who lived decent lives off the labor stolen from our backs! I care not what your 'Terran sayings' and folklore suggest, Admiral Rodriguez! If you wish to shelter these Kessu, then so be it! Do not chide me like a newly-hatched spawnling. Do not speak down to me as if my people's suffering is some ancient wound we must casually set aside! Our entire history comes from pain! It has forged us into the mightiest Rodaks in the galaxy!"
Orgon rises to his feet. His words boom throughout the bridge, making the hearts of his crew soar. His passion-filled speech inflames their anger, reminding them of the pain they've suffered, and all the reasons they continue to fight.
"The Kraktol will never give up on our revenge, Admiral Rodriguez! So long as the Mallali control the Core, the Rodaks will fight back against their oppressive regime! Who are you to pass judgment on me when two hours ago, you hadn't a clue who the Kraktol and Kessu even were?! A self-righteous zealot, that's who! Hmph!"
Commander Orgon breathes heavily. His eyes bulge in their sockets, enlarged due to the cold blood furiously pumping through his body. The changes in his physical condition make him appear three times more threatening than before, as if he might snap and attack the viewscreen at any moment.
Several seconds pass before Admiral Rodriguez responds.
"In that case, you leave me no choice. As of this moment, I will place the Kessu under my protection. If the only restitution you will accept for the sins of their ancestors is blood, then that is a price I won't allow them to pay. These Kessu are not the ones who harmed you. They may have benefited by the trauma caused to your people, but they had no say in that matter. I will also place the rest of their species under my protection as well. I will excuse the violence you've committed against them prior to our meeting, but after today, any further acts of undeserved aggression will force me to take military action on their behalf."
José nods at Commander Orgon. "Go. Take your fleet and leave. I've nothing more I wish to hear from you."
Commander Orgon balks.
The Kraktol leader stares at the Terran in disbelief, his confusion growing by the second.
The Terran is letting us go? No! He's dismissing us as if we were unruly hatchlings! After all that tough talk of us facing his wrath, why would he tell us to leave?
Unable to understand the Terran's motivations, a spark appears in the Commander's eye.
Ah. Could it be? Is the Terran not as strong as he claims? Might he actually be afraid of my fleet, after all? Perhaps he wishes to intimidate us because he lacks the firepower to back up his feeble words.
Before José can disable the communication feed, Orgon lifts his head to meet the Admiral's gaze.
"Graugh! You, Terran... do you really wish to make an enemy of the Kraktol empire? Your ship is impressive, but can it match up to the might of ten thousand Imperator-class battleships? Why do you always seek to intimidate me with mere words? What are you so afraid of that you wish for us to leave you in peace, hmm?"
Orgon's thoughts return to his first interaction with the Terran.
That's right. This human initially referred to my ships as 'death machines.' Does that not confirm he is secretly afraid of me? He seems to know everything about me, yet he keeps his secrets clutched against his chest.
Admiral Rodriguez frowns. "I think you're misunderstanding something, Commander Orgon. I do not fear you, nor your so-called 'Kraktol Empire.' I am one of Ramma's Chosen, and so, I serve a higher creed. I protect the innocent and uphold justice blindly. I would slay my own brother if Ramma's Creed deemed it necessary. Therefore, I have determined that protecting the now-helpless Kessu from your fleets is of the utmost importance, yet, at the same time, I cannot deny that you have acted according to your own circumstances. I will not retroactively punish you, but I will give you the opportunity to change your ways."
The Admiral continues. "If you slay the Kessu, you will only further a cycle of violence. Those who survive, if any, will grow up to resent you. Someday, when you perish to the tides of time, those same Kessu will fall upon your descendants with an executioner's axe, confident in their righteousness. What then? Shall the cycle continue a fourth time? A fifth?"
José shakes his head. "Instead, I will forcibly end the violence here. I will show you with my actions that I am willing to forgive and forget, while allowing this lesson to percolate in your minds. Ideally, given time, you may be able to let go of your hatred. You may even go so far as to forgive the Kessu for the evil of their ancestors, though you will neither condone nor forget what happened. That is what you must do to relieve yourself from the pain of your past."
The Terran finishes speaking. His words seemingly echo infinitely on the bridge of the Dragon's Breath, making the ears of all its officers ring.
Orgon's eye twitches.
"Forgiveness. You want the Kraktol... to forgive the Kessu?"
"That is your choice," José replies. "Whether you do so or not is up to you. Likewise, my decision is to protect the Kessu, as the current generation and many previous generations have not committed such heinous acts. That is why we should leave each other here, today. I will allow you to leave my space, undamaged. I'm sure you've calculated the firepower of my vessel several times. You know that if push were to come to shove, you would not win in a firefight."
"I believe there has been enough death and destruction today," Jose adds. "Return to Kraktol space. Leave here, and do not continue any further attacks on Kessu-controlled worlds, however many there may be. If you do, you will find that my mercy has a strict upper limit."
Without waiting for a reply, José waves goodbye. "Farewell, Commander Orgon. I hope we meet next time under better circumstances."
A moment later, the viewscreen cuts off, once again initiated at the Terran's end.
Orgon's shoulders slump. He glances around the bridge at the mixture of expressions on his crew-member's faces. Anger, acceptance, and confusion alike run rampant among their ranks.
Chief Navigator Gorlax sits back in his chair and stares through the plexi-window at the black Void outside, the endless expanse of space stretching to infinity and beyond. His eyes reveal complex emotions as he wrestles with the idea of forgiveness in the face of the hatred he's carried his whole life, versus the realization that attempting to murder all the Kessu will require combatting an enemy the current Kraktol fleet may never stand a chance of beating.
First Officer Megla's yellow scales flush brighter than ever as her emotions run hot. The look on her face tells Orgon everything he needs to know. She wants blood, and no exchange of words will ever change that reality.
Tactical Officer Soren, meanwhile, bears an introspective look. She operates on a more logical level than many of the rest of the crew, allowing her to set aside her emotions in the pursuit of her goals. She taps the end of her snout silently, pondering whether engaging the Terran now and risking the fleet's destruction would be worth the risk if it meant obtaining his technology and killing the Kessu.
Nobody says a word.
Orgon sits in his chair and gazes at the window for over a minute. Eventually, he comes to a decision.
"Everyone. We have a choice to make. I wish to hold a referendum vote regarding our next course of action. All members of the Dragon's Breath bridge-crew are eligible. Nobody else."
The Commander blinks twice before continuing.
"We have a 5% chance of seizing control of the Terran vessel and killing the Kessu. Likewise, we now have a 100% chance of fleeing and escaping with our lives. However, if we flee, the Thülvik will punish us severely for abandoning the Kessu extermination mission, failing to capture the stealth vessel, and failing to obtain the Juggernaut vessel. Needless to say, whether we stay or flee, we have a high likelihood of losing our ranks or our lives."
The Commander holds up both of his clawed fists.
"Raise your right fist if you wish to attack the Terran's vessel, fight his crew, and potentially seize everything he owns for ourselves. Raise your left fist if you would rather leave with our tails tucked between our legs. Perhaps the Thülvik will show us mercy."
Guilty looks appear on several crew-member's faces. More than a few of the Kraktol appear hesitant at attacking the Terran's ship. Its superior firepower and advanced hacking capabilities don't escape their notice.
However, returning to the Thülvik empty-handed gives them similarly tremendous worries. Even if she only punishes a minority of the crew, most of them will be those serving on the bridge.
Eventually, to even Commander Orgon's surprise, every single Kraktol raises their right fist. Despite their misgivings and fears, the bridge-crew decide to stay united against the terrifying alien menace. If they flee, they might have to face the Terran on far less optimal terms, when he has repaired his vessel's flight functionality and several other primary systems.
With a nod, Commander Orgon smiles. He lowers his fists and settles more comfortably into his chair.
"Graugh. You are all brave warriors. If we must die, then we will go out like warriors. We will continue seeking our revenge, regardless of the Terran's honeyed words. I thank all of you for your fortitude... you are the best crew a Commander could ask for. Now, Navigator Gorlax, Tactical Officer Soren... transmit the attack command to the rest of the fleet. We will begin our assault in twenty seconds."
"Aye, Commander."
"Yes, Commander!"
Gorlax and Soren nod in unison. They turn to their stations and begin tapping hundreds of buttons at once.
Suddenly, something unexpected happens.
The ship's internal lights flicker. All of the viewscreens on the Dragon Breath's bridge deactivate and reactivate a moment later, but now, they glow an ominous red.
The bridge's bright blue lighting shifts to the color of blood.
Overhead, a female synthmind speaks.
"How unfortunate. The Admiral gave you the choice to retreat, but you turned him down. You will soon realize what a big mistake you have made. Now, it is too late to change your mind. The Admiral is very displeased."
Orgon leaps out of his chair. His blood turns to ice as he fails to recognize the strange, alien voice speaking overhead. "Officer Megla! The kill-switch! Activate it at once!"
"I already tried!" Megla exclaims. She helplessly taps on her useless computer screen, leaving nothing but claw-marks on its surface. "I'm locked out! I can't warn the Thülvik!"
"Yes, you are, and no, you cannot," The Synthmind affirms. "Do not worry. My Admiral is not a cruel man. He will grant you a fair chance to fight for your lives. Now, if you will excuse me, I need to calculate the landing coordinates for your vessels. You will soon join the Admiral in his hangar bay."
The ship's inertia dampeners stutter for a moment, causing the crew to fly out of their chairs as the Dragon's Breath begins traveling at low-impulse power toward the Bloodbearer's awaiting hangar.
Orgon's scales turn an ashen shade of grey.
The Terran is bringing us directly to his ship's hangar?! He intends to fight us in fair combat?! Oh, no! That was supposed to be our best bet of overwhelming him! He must have his entire military force inside with an ambush waiting for us! That filthy Futh!!
No matter how Orgon curses in his mind, all he can do is watch helplessly as his entire fleet begins flying toward the Bloodbearer, their controls inaccessible to the pilots onboard.
The Terran awaits.
Next Part
.......................................
Author Note:
Klokinator here! I am also the author of The Cryopod to Hell. The Last Precursor takes place in the [Cryoverse] which TCTH spawned. You do not have to read TCTH to enjoy TLP. However, I highly recommend it if you enjoy HFY themes, but be warned it will take some 200 parts to get to the relevant HFY elements due to the nature of the story. (A similar structure involving very few humans fighting against vicious demons that have taken over the galaxy.)
If you like this story, please consider subscribing to my Patreon! I am very poor and presently jobless due to Coronavirus, so every dollar helps. You get access to Cryopod artwork, and plenty of other exclusive posts, with more to come soon.
Thank you!
submitted by Klokinator to HFY [link] [comments]

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