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If the money line (straight up) for the favorite is -1000, is that pretty much a lock/guarantee that they are going to win?
Sorry if this may sound like a stupid question, I’m relatively new to sports betting. For example, the money line for this Saturday’s game, Notre Dame (vs BC) is -1000 (correct me if I’m wrong) well at least on fanduel. I’m thinking about going balls deep on Notre Dame but always have that what If in my mind and gets me scared. Are these pretty much locks/safe bets that I should not be worrying about? submitted by drinkyafkingmilk to sportsbook [link] [comments]
ChazSpearmint's Top 53 Big Board
submitted by chazspearmint to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]
Hey guys. I posted my three-round mock a couple days back and it went pretty well. In doing so, I came with a big board and explanations for each player and I thought I would share to supplement it. It's a Top 53 big board; that number has nothing to do with NFL rosters or anything, it's just that's the point that I had to cut it off. I wanted to stop at an organic point that made sense. I'll also add comps to current NFL players for the most part.
- Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State: What is there to say? He's the most dominant edge rusher I've seen in some time and has elite pass-rushing traits to pair with elite level production on the biggest stage in college. I guess he's a little one-dimensional at times but if I could just casually jog around opposing OTs, I wouldn't worry about my number of moves either. I'm not overthinking this. Pro Comp: Danielle Hunter
- Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson: In the modern NFL, off-ball linebackers really aren't at a premium position and don't tend to be terribly difficult to replace in terms of production. That is not the case with Isaiah Simmons. A nightmare to block, create separation from, break a tackle from, or just generally gameplan against, I've never seen a defensive player at his size do what he can do athletically. I think he's a once-in-a-generation type of player and we should appreciate him while we have him. Pro Comp: I'm not even going to try
- Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State: Jeff is one of the most pro-ready CBs I've seen come out in a while. Some have gotten on about his 40 time but I think that's wildly overblown. He excels in man coverage and is silky smooth and fluid. He plays high level, mistake-free football and cancels out anyone he's covering. He has the length and positional understanding to play zone as well making him very valuable to DCs running mix coverages. He has All-Pro potential. Pro Comp: Marshon Lattimore
- Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn: If you're a stat whore, you are going to completely miss the appeal of Derrick Brown. For anyone who watched Auburn's defense last year, you know instantly the type of impact Derrick Brown has. He was able to blow up the run against constant double and sometimes triple teams often using nothing more than his brute force and sheer athleticism. He's never going to be a 6 sack per year guy, but that's not why he's on the field. He's one of those guys who "magically" makes everyone else's job easier. He sets 'em up, they knock him down. He won't go as high as #4, but there's no way he gets out of the top 10. Pro Comp: Linval Joseph
- Joe Burrow, QB, LSU: I was one of the most skeptical Joe Burrow Stans at the beginning of the year. I refused to believe that same QB I watched in 2018 was any better than the year before, the new offense just made it easier to put up numbers. I watched every game from Florida onward and as much as I tried, it's been hard to pick him apart. He's really fucking good. He may not wow with any single trait except pinpoint accuracy and elite pocket presence, but he does everything at a very high level. Teammate quality be damned, Joe's the real deal. Pro Comp: Tony Romo
- CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma: CeeDee is one of those players that grows on you the more you watch him. He doesn't have elite speed, let's get that out of the way. But everything else he does at an elite level. He's a silky smooth route runner with a good catch radius and hangs on to nearly everything. I think a large part of Baker, Kyler, and Jalen's success has had some part to do because of how easy Lamb made it for them. His numbers don't pop out necessarily, but that's due to how Oklahoma plays. Make no mistake, he'll be a #1 for a long time. Pro Comp: Deandre Hopkins
- Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa: I'll be honest, I really didn't get the Wirfs hype to start the season. The first game I watched was the Michigan game live and all I noticed was Nate Stanley getting the ball and then proceeding to run for his life every down. As I've watched more, I've noticed he was largely the only good thing about that OL. Hyper athletic, silky smooth in pass pro, and a nasty player in the run game, he's the entire package. I don't really care that he allowed 2 sacks last year or that he's only played RT; when you have the traits Wirfs does, you jump on it right away. Pro Comp: Lane Johnson
- AJ Epenesa, DL, Iowa: Epenesa is one of the most misunderstood players in this draft. Any team that drafts him as a 3-4 edge rusher is going to be sorely disappointed when he becomes a (consistent) 7-8 sack per season kind of guy. Epenesa's best work comes on stunts and breaking down double teams on the inside to work his way to the QB. Players with his kind of power, speed, and length combination are rare. Play him on the edge at your own risk; play him inside at the 3 or 5T and you may have an All-Pro. Pro Comp: DeForest Buckner
- Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama: After Wirfs, I think Wills has the highest ceiling out of all the tackles in this draft. I've actually followed Wills since he was tearing up the Lexington high school scene in Kentucky and his progression has been insAane. He continues to get leaps and bounds better every season. Always a very physical player in the run game, he's been very good in the pass game on his way to allowing just one sack last year. He didn't always face the opposition's best rusher, but it doesn't matter. Projecting to LT shouldn't be a problem. Pro Comp: Taylor Lewan
- Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama: Jeudy is arguably the most established collegiate receiver in this draft. The 2018 Biletnikoff winner has had a ton of hype around him even before Tua won the starting job at Alabama. An unreal route runner with a sneaky gear change in his acceleration, he's certainly a threat to take it to the house on every play. I have questions about his play strength and his ability to win outside against the NFL's best, but we'll let his unbelievable production against the SEC's best CBs speak for itself. Pro Comp: Amari Cooper
- Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: Tua has to be the most famous player in the draft, right? There's good reason for it: he's put together arguably the greatest statistical two-year run of any college QB since what? Tim Tebow? Ever? He's small in stature but makes up for it with a quick release, good footwork, insane deep ball accuracy, and fantastic timing. There are obviously concerns about his injury history but people bring up valid complaints against his composure playing from behind and his ability to compete without elite supporting members. I won't dismiss them, but they're certainly not enough to knock him any lower. Pro Comp: Drew Brees
- Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina: There may not be a more imposing physical specimen outside the Top 5 than Javon Kinlaw. Standing 6'5" and 325 (the same size as Derrick Brown) but moving like a defensive end, Kinlaw is a matchup nightmare for anyone on the interior OL. He is tenacious in getting into the backfield and has been productive as a pass rusher. I question his effort and consistency in production at times but not to the point that it's a major problem. If he can keep that motor on even 15% more often, he's going to be hard to pass up. Pro Comp: Chris Jones
- Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia: AT has to be one of the safest picks in this entire draft. A multi-year starter at LT for the Dawgs, he's been consistent in pass protection and very physical in the run game throughout his time. I think he lacks the foot speed to excel against the absolute fastest speed rushers but he has very good technique and does little poorly. He may never been a top 5 OT but he'll be a left tackle you won't have to worry about replacing for 10 years. Pro Comp: Mitchell Schwartz
- Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin: Taylor has been a workhorse at Wisconsin the last 3 years as they continue to churn out yet another elite RB. Superficial scouts may see a 4.39 and think he's just a speed runner but he's much more. Very physical, hard to tackle, fantastic balance and vision, and developed nicely in 2019 in the pass game, he's become a do it all back. I'm personally not worried about the workload and I think you take the best back first. That shouldn't be controversial. They don't make many like JT and we may look back and wonder why we didn't put him in the conversation with Zeke, Saquon, and Fournette. Pro Comp: Adrian Peterson
- Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma: In another draft where you didn't have some superhuman lab creature ahead of him, Murray would be getting a lot of attention for his play at linebacker. Far more than just a mike/sam who can play downhill, Murray is a very effective pass rusher and has all the twitch you need to be successful covering RBs and TEs to boot. Having been the pulse of an improved Oklahoma defense over the past season, a lot of that starts with Murray. Pro Comp: Demario Davis
- Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE, Penn State: One of the currently most slept on edge rushers in the class in my opinion. Many will cite YGM's lack of discipline in the run game but I think it's well overblown. He sets a very good edge when he's patient and has arguably the best size/speed/power combo outside of Chase Young. There isn't a more consistently productive edge rusher in this class at the P5 level despite drawing lots of attention from teams all year long. I really hope people keep sleeping on him because he fits my Titans perfect at #29. I think GM's will wise up by April though. Pro Comp: Chandler Jones
- Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama: I have been one of Ruggs' most vocal critics over the past few months as I was curious how fast he actually was. I had a strong feeling he wouldn't break the record but I though anything between 4.28 and 4.35 was in play. He exceeded those expectations. I still think he may be relegated to the slot often and I question his ability to win outside and grow on his limited production. He has insanely quick feet to match that top end speed, though, and has done a good job hanging onto the football. Ultimately, dude's fast. And speed sells. Pro Comp: Desean Jackson
- K'Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU: Chaisson is one of the most intriguing prospects in this draft to me. There might not be a rusher that is more disruptive in terms of just running at you and beating you after Chase. Injuries have slowed him down and he didn't really produce until midway through the season. He finished very strong, though, and I would bet on him to continue that trend in the league. His athletic gifts are undeniable and will give him continued opportunities to succeed. Pro Comp: Shaquil Barrett
- Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama: Brother of Stefon, Diggs clearly has some of the good family genes in him. His ball skills are possibly his best attribute and he attacks the ball like a wide receiver. Beyond that, he has all the measurables you want with great size and length and good speed for the position. He's tailor-made to play outside and has a good punch and is sticky in man coverage. People cite how JaMarr Chase wrecked him, and he did. But Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase wrecked everyone and that's a high standard to hold him to. Ultimately, he's coming off a great year and will be a great press-man CB at the next level. Pro Comp: Xavier Rhodes (before he sucked)
- Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU: Coming off a fantastic year on the title-winning Tigers team, Jefferson has gained a lot of notoriety since December. Thanks to three high level postseason games- where he racked up 30 catches for 448 yards and 5 TDs- and a very good combine performance, JJ is skyrocketing up boards. What people forget though is that he's been doing it all year. He's got great size and uses it very well attacking the ball aggressively (he won a ridiculous 92% of contested catches last year, almost double any other receiver in the class) and rarely drops passes. He has very good top speed, is a smooth route runner, and has a good release. Sure, he only ran at #2 CBs for a lot of the year, but he is a ridiculously complete receiver and, honestly, I may have him too low. Pro Comp: AJ Green
- CJ Henderson, CB, Florida: Henderson is one of my favorite CB prospects in this draft and the sky is the limit on his potential. Often lumped together with failed Florida CBs of yesteryear (Quincy Wilson, Hargreaves, Teez Tabor, etc), it's foolish to gloss over this guy. He's an absolutely unreal springy, twitchy athlete with all the size and length you could want. He does a great job staying in front of 90% of plays and has the make-up speed you want in your OCB. He delivers a great hit when running downhill as well. You may knock him due to some big plays allowed in 2019, which he needs to correct, but is due partially to randomness, IMO. If he averages anywhere close to his 2018 play, he'll be a great pickup at #21. Pro Comp: Marlon Humphrey
- Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson: Higgins has been one of the most productive receivers in CFB over the last 3 years and has made life very difficult for opposing CBs. Using his impressive size constantly to his advantage, he's an elite jump ball winner and an eraser for inaccurate QBs. I have questions over his top speed after he declined to run at the combine, but he certainly looks fast enough to get the job done in the NFL. He doesn't always separate but when you have the catch radius and sticky hands he does, you can get away with it. He'll never be the best receiver in the league but he's very safe and you'll never have to doubt having an option on the outside. Pro Comp: Mike Williams
- Josh Jones, OT, Houston: I'm a big Josh Jones Stan as well. At Houston, he excelled in both pass protection and run blocking on a team that didn't have much to play for early on in the year. He's a pretty athletic tackle prospect with an opportunity to play at either spot. He needs to improve his anchor to not get off balance but I think experience and anticipation will help. I think people saying he's this year's Andre Dillard may be right; he doesn't have the highest pedigree but when you have a guy that big who can play like he does, you take him. Pro Comp: Jake Matthews
- Zack Baun, OLB, Wisconsin: Baun may not be the most naturally gifted athletes but he's one of the most productive defenders in this class for good reason. He's a very complete defender who excels at doing a variety of things. Largely ask to play as an edge rusher at Wisconsin (but off-ball as well), he is exceptional at getting after the passer. He came in light to the combine all but confirming the move to OLB, but a team wanting to use him like Seattle used Bruce Irvin could see a lot of success. He has good instincts, a few good rush moves, and is fast enough to cover out of the backfield. Some say he's a so-so tackler but I haven't seen it. Take him and be prepared to get a little creative. Pro Comp: Clay Matthews
- JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio State: What a career Dobbins has had at OSU. Two years ago he was already on draft boards as a potential scat back in the NFL. After a not-as-hoped progression in '18, he really showed his colors last year. Dobbins has developed into an electric and dominant runner who excels at finding a crease and smacking the hole. He ran like a man possessed this year on his way to a 2,000 yard and 21 TD season. He still retains that scat back ability though, flipping out of the backfield to constantly hoard free yards by being a nightmare for opposing LBs. He's a little undersized but he's bulked up in recent years. And his breakaway speed is may not as good as you'd think. But he's a wicked player and will have a long career. Pro Comp: Dalvin Cook
- Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU: I was a critic of Fulton early on in the evaluation process but he's slowly started to prove me wrong. Besides a tough game against a very potent pass attack in Clemson and a so-so one against Alabama, Fulton was one of the best lock-down CBs all year. He had one of the best pass-defense ratings in CFB all year. The large questions for me around Fulton have to do with him staying in front of the football. He didn't seem to get his head turned around quick enough on film and that gives me pause for someone moving on to the next level. Still, he did it against CFB's best last year and he certainly has the speed to do it. A little undersized, he still has a good press and will be successful. He reminds me of another LSU CB who came out a couple years ago with similar concerns. Pro Comp: Tre'Davious White
- Patrick Queen, ILB, LSU: Arguably no player improved their stock more through the national championship game than Patrick Queen. On many radars already, he exploded onto the scene after they called his name again and again against the nation's best. A very physical mike linebacker who loves playing downhill, he possesses elite athletic traits you want in a modern linebacker and delivers a ferocious boom when he times it right. He struggles with gambling at times, though he will develop as he becomes more experienced. Discipline can be taught, but that type of athleticism can't. Pro Comp: Rashaan Evans
- Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor: After an extremely impressive combine, Denzel Mims is rapidly ascending draft boards across America right now. If you weren't already looking, though, that's on you. After putting up nearly 3,000 yards the last 3 seasons at Baylor, Mims has been one of the most established threats in the Big12 for a while. A very long receiver with obviously great top speed and a great catch radius, there's very little that Mims can't do. There's very few receivers who come into the draft so pro-ready as blockers as well. I have concerns about his drop rate (8% is a little high) but he was reliable in 2019 and I forsee that not being a big issue in the leauge. Pro Comp: DeVante Parker
- Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon: Herbert has been one of the most polarizing prospects throughout this past season. Depending on who you ask, what he was able to achieve at Oregon may be very impressive or somewhat underwhelming. Same for his performance at the Senior Bowl. I don't feel as strongly, but I don't think Herbert will be a top 10 QB. He has the tools: a very good arm, good mobility, solid mechanics, is accurate for the most part. But, as many note, the game still looks like it moves too fast for Herbert. He's slow to process a lot of reads and struggles under pressure at times. I don't think he'll be horrible, for the record, and I think he has a big will to win. He's still worth a top 10 pick for a QB-needy team because he can lead a lot of teams to very be successful. But for all his good traits, there's just obviously something missing and I'm not sure if he'll ever acquire it. Higher floor, but lower ceiling than many think. Pro Comp: Sam Darnold
- Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama: McKinney moves on from a great career at Alabama as a hyper-athletic, hard-hitting safety who finds the ball well. Don't let his combine fool you: he's much faster than 4.6. In a class where there aren't any great surefire safety prospects, McKinney will make some team very happy with his consistency in play. He needs to get better in coverage but he's the level of athlete that you believe it's teachable. He's not the sexiest pick but you can count on him as a good, versatile safety for years to come. Pro Comp: Shawn Williams
- D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia: Many may scoff that I have Swift as the RB3 in this class but I still have him as one of the best 32 players. It's a testament to the depth of this class. Swift played in tandem with a combination of Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, and Elijah Holyfield for his first 2 seasons but really burst onto the scene as the guy in '19. He's a very twitchy, patient back who is expertly able to make defenders looked stupid with some violent cuts and spins. He's a very good back catching balls out the backfield and one of the best route runners in the class. Less so than the others, he doesn't have one thing that I think he's elite at but he does everything proficiently. It doesn't matter as much to me, but some teams will fall in love with the fact that he's only seen 400-odd touches in college, too. I don't think he's dominant, but he's certainly a feature back for most teams in the league. Pro Comp: Miles Sanders
- Cole Kmet, TE, Notre Dame: There's our first TE on the board. When I watched through Kmet's tape at first, I'll be honest: I was a little bored. Kmet isn't exactly the flashiest player in this class and you won't see him wowing fans week-after-week with highlight plays. He is, though, extremely polished coming into the league. He obviously very big and moves well for his size. He's very sure-handed and is a very good in-line blocker. He only burst onto the scene this season, so there will be some doubts whether he can keep it up. But if you want sound TE play and a guy that just quietly does what you need him to, he's your man. Pro Comp: Mark Andrews
- Grant Delpit, S, LSU: I really feel for Grant Delpit because it's very tough to go from a top 5-10 pick to a fringe first rounder. He hasn't done himself any favors this year, though. Infamous for many missed tackles this year, he also didn't flex his incredible ball skills the way he did in '18 and struggled with a nagging ankle injury. Despite all of this, he's still one of the best athletes in the draft and has all the size you want for someone playing safety. He's rangy with good make-up speed and still can deliver a pop when he does find the ball carrier. For all his problems tackling, I don't see it as an effort problem and that's important to note. He may hurt you, but he's also worth a significant gamble and can be a perennial Pro-Bowler. Pro Comp: Marcus Williams
- Chase Claypool, WR, Notre Dame: Chase is one of my draft crushes since the middle of the season. If you want to watch a guy take over, just watch his 4th quarter performance against a good Virginia Tech secondary (I think it was before their starter got hurt). Claypool is a big guy for the position but I was stunned when he came in at 238. Still, he moves very fluidly and has great hands. He's an underrated route runner with great YAC ability. Of course, he also uses his size very well and is a proficient jump ball winner. I have questions about his hands in the past but in 2019 he was reliable. He was the only offensive threat and helped carry that Notre Dame offense to a 11-2 record. He needs a little polish but his God-given ability is off the charts. Pro Comp: Kenny Golladay
- Mehki Becton, OT, Louisville: Becton is an absolute freak. A guy standing at 365 lbs has no business running a 5.1 forty. That's just stupid. He paved the way well all year for a resurgent Louisville rushing attack and just moved guys as he wanted all year long. You also can't help but notice how well he moves for his size: he won't win Dancing with the Stars, but he he's got good footwork. The only issue I have with Mehki lies in his effort/conditioning. It's hard to tell if he took some plays off because he was gassed or if it was because he didn't have effort, but he can't do that in the NFL. He may also struggle with the absolute best speed rushers. But guys with his size, quickness, and long arms are rare. He's still likely a first rounder. Pro Comp: Donovan Smith
- Terrell Lewis, EDGE, Alabama: Terrell Lewis is a lab-creation on the edge. The blend of his length, speed, and power is special. On his day, he is able to effortlessly glide through, around, over, etc opposing tackles at will. He struggled in the 2nd half of the season for Alabama and failed to register a sack after the Tennessee game. He plays undisciplined often and shows a poor repertoire of counters when his first move doesn't work. He weighs in well but is very lanky and looks very thin out there. He's missed a lot of time due to injury in his career each season he's played. It doesn't matter. When Lewis gets downhill and gets a step to a tackle, it's over. He's not my favorite prospect and comes with much risk, but there's no denying his top level ability if he can grow and stay healthy. Pro Comp: Montez Sweat
- James Lynch, IDL, Baylor: I'm one of the biggest James Lynch fans in this draft. Lynch may not have the athletic profile of some of the other players on this list but by George is he not one of the most effective and refined players you have to choose from. After bursting on the scene as the best player on a dominant Baylor defense in 2019, he was a load to handle in the middle for opposing defense all year on his way to 13 sacks. He has a nasty initial punch that takes guards off balance and lives in the backfield. He won't get that at the NFL but for a 3 or 5 technique, he'll excel and is a very balanced defender. Very high floor on this one. Pro Comp: Cam Heyward
- Neville Gallimore, DT, Oklahoma: On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, you have an absolute freak in Neville Gallimore. Gallimore was able to shed 30 lbs last offseason to transition from a nose tackle to a more effective 3T and boy did it pay off. He was good before but he looked much more explosive this season and that showed through at the combine. Able to use his elite get off to get you off balance and his natural power to push through, he was able to live in the backfield. His only questions lie in the consistency of his effort. But if he can find another level in his motor and continue to condition, the sky's the limit. Able to play either a 3T or shade nose position at the next level easily. Pro Comp: Kenny Clark
- Michael Pittman, WR, USC: Sometimes being an elite football player is just in your DNA. Pittman was a star at USC this past season after the team was relegated to their 3rd(?) starting QB early in the year. Slovis played well but it was in no small part to Pittman. Making highlight catch after highlight catch, he also wowed me with his quick feet and ability to get separation as well. He has an incredible contested catch rate and rarely drops the ball, creating a formula that makes almost any receiver successful in the league. There will be some questions about PAC12 DBs he faced, but it's silly. Pittman is one of my favorite receivers in the draft and wherever he lands in the 2nd round will be getting a steal. Pro Comp: Mike Evans
- Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU: Ross has been a nfl_draft favorite for several months now but his stock in the public eye is finally starting to match perception. Blacklock excelled as a 3T at TCU last season and was able to use his tremendous athleticism to get in the backfield. He's very natural as a pass rusher and when he beats the guard to the first step, he's gone. A little small, he does get off balance at times. And there will be some concerns about injuries that have derailed him in the past. Still, when he's on his game, there are few better. Now that I think about it, I feel sorry for the talent that Big 12 guards saw last year. Pro Comp: Larry Ogunjobi
- Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU: Another Horned Frog makes his way onto the board here and it's for good reason. Despite his size, Gladney feasted last year with TCU on his way to a productive 2019 campaign. A very intelligent player with very good speed, it takes quite a bit to get past Gladney in either man or zone. There will be some concerns whether his lack of size will keep him from playing OCB in the NFL but smaller CBs have done it and regardless there is a great future for him in the nickel as well. Physical and consistent, there's always a place for those CBs. A so-so combine doesn't deter me. Pro Comp: Kyle Fuller
- Justin Madubuike, DT, Texas A&M: I. Love. Madubuike. My board is mostly set but he may continue to go up because the more I watch, the more I love. The guy has elite get off on the defensive line and has elite production in the SEC to match. 11 sacks and 20 TFL in the last 2 seasons is nothing to sniff at. He uses his great burst and mean punch to quickly accelerate past guards like they're not there. He's an efficient run defender and a great pass rusher. He needs to improve his work against double teams and add some to his frame but come on. The guy's a stud. Pro Comp: Gerald McCoy
- Ashtyn Davis, S, California: Another favorite of people on the sub, Ashtyn Davis has everything you could want out of a prospect. To match his top-level athleticism, he's a safety with great instincts and ball-skills with very high character that appears very coachable. I have soft spot for former walk-ons and he's one of those guys that's grinded to get where he is. He has good size, to boot. He doesn't have many primary areas he struggles with but he can continue to develop against the run. He's a guy that can certainly sneak into the first round if the right team lands in the right situation. Pro Comp: Kevin Byard
- Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU: The 3rd Horned Frog in 5 spots, but Reagor finally settles in. I was a huge fan of Reagor when I started on the film and it's hard not to notice his incredible burst and top speed. Some will cite his so-so combine but I have no problem believing he's much faster than that. IMO, there's two things that separate Reagor from your traditional speed-demon prospect. First, he is one of the better 50/50 ball winners in this class and that's saying something. He has not let his height/weight keep him from attacking the ball catching it at full extension. Second, he is an extremely poor cutter for his natural speed. There's a lot of wasted movement and he nukes his own acceleration. Looks a little uncoordinated even. Still, he has a future in this league even with his limited route tree and drop problems. You can't take your eyes off him for one second. Pro Comp: DK Metcalf, minus a few inches
- Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado: Very receivers in CFB the last two years have been as electric as Laviska Shenault. Able to play out wide, out of the slot, out of the backfield, or even in the wildcat, Viska uses his large frame and athleticism to power through defenders at will. As a receiver, he lacks quite a bit of polish. His route running can be sloppy and his hands can be questionable. But his YAC and running ability in general will keep him in the league for a long time. He's the type of guy you want to get the ball in space and let him go. Tackle at your own risk. Pro Comp: AJ Brown
- Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State: The last in a very difficult group of WRs for me to sort through, Aiyuk isn't far behind the others. After coming through the junior college ranks, Aiyuk burst onto the scene for ASU posting nearly 1200 yards and 8 TDs last year with an absolutely stupid 18 yards per catch. He is able to beat press on the outside (if you can get your hands on him) and use his incredible speed and acceleration to glide in between defenders rather effortlessly. He's pretty sure handed, though I wouldn't bank on him to go for many jump balls. Still, even if in the slot, Aiyuk will be a problem for opposing DCs for several years due to his ability to break one at any given time. He's a top 20 pick in most drafts. Pro Comp: DJ Moore
- AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson: AJ is another in a long line of Clemson CBs that are really great on paper but on tape you just don't know about. Few had a more impressive showing at the combine and he assured scouts of his legit OCB size to match with elite athleticism. On film, he shows to be a very willing tackler and can deliver some pop on unsuspecting ball carriers. Still, you have to worry about Terrell as a gambler at times and he does seem to get lost in coverage. He was beat pretty badly in the NCG but I don't hold that against him. Ultimately, I think his level of play held him back and I'm confident he can adapt at the next level. Whether he will is up to him but there's no doubt he has all the tools to do it. Pro Comp: Byron Jones
- Albert Okwuegbuman, TE, Missouri: The Big O was arguably the most heralded TE prospect coming into the past season but, like many flashy players before, he was exposed a little on film throughout the year. An absolute terror in the red zone with incredible big-play ability and obviously elite top-end athleticism, Albert has a lot of traits you want in a feature TE. He is, of course, a very inconsistent blocker and his lack of effort at times is concerning. There's no reason a TE that big and that athletic doesn't dominate on every play. You put Kmet in Albert O's body and you have a top 10 pick. Still, you have to hope the right coaches and environment can bring the best out of him. I wouldn't want to line up across from him on any given play. Pro Comp: Jimmy Graham
- Kyle Dugger, S, Lenoir-Rhyne: Dugger is one of the great mysteries of the draft to me. Coming from a D2 school where he looked like Ed Reed playing against Pop Warner kids, it's really hard to judge how good this guy actually is. He had a great combine and that was one of the first benchmarks I needed to see him hit. He measured well, ran well. He clearly has good ball skills and has big plus upside as a return man at the next level. He's very powerful and used his size well. It's hard to say much more because right now he's mostly a blank canvas. But he's an incredible athlete and we could be talking about a future Pro Bowler. Pro Comp: Rayshawn Jenkins
- Cesar Ruiz, IOL, Michigan: Our first interior lineman sneaks on the board and it's well deserved. Cesar Ruiz starred in the middle of the Michigan OL the past couple seasons and is known for his consistency. He may not wow you with his athleticism but he's a very willing run block and very consistent pass protector. He's a cerebral player in the middle who plays very physically. It may not sound like the most glowing recommendation, but consistency is what you want the most from your interior lineman. He has as good a shot as any player to be a consistent Pro-Bowler. Pro Comp: Rodney Hudson
- Kenny Willekes, EDGE, Michigan State: One of my favorite prospects in an otherwise rough edge class. Another former walk-on for MSU, Willekes has been one of the most productive edge defenders the last 3 seasons on his way to 50(!) TFLs and 23.5 sacks. Knocked for his athleticism, I don't totally understand why. He looks a little slow footed at times but at others is quick to blow right through tackles and even tight ends. He's very disciplined in the run game and his sack totals have gotten better each season. He's an absolute terror to block and projects best as 3-4 strong-side OLB. Pass on him because of his size if you want, I hope he suits up for my team next year. Pro Comp: Jordan Jenkins
- Antoine Winfield, S, Minnesota: He may be pint-sized but he packs a mean punch. Playing safety for the Golden Gophers the last 4 season, Winfield burst on the scene this year after recording 7 picks on the year. Despite his small stature, he is not afraid to deliver some physical hits and plays very downhill. He excels in zone coverage but isn't to be picked on in man either and has little trouble reading the play. I have questions about how he will hold up after injuries derailed his previous two seasons, but he has football in is blood. I don't know if he'll hold up in the league, but he'll be damn good when he's out there. Pro Comp: Tyrann Mathieu
- Julian Okwara, EDGE, Notre Dame: The last on the list is an explosive edge rusher who comes downhill as well as on the list. I am pretty critical of Okwara's lack of production- just 15 sacks and 20 TFLs in the last 3 seasons- and 2019 wasn't his best. He struggles to stay on the field. He gets stonewalled too easily. But when you turn on the tape, you know why he's so highly sought after. When he gets going at tough speed, you can't adjust to him. You almost can't see him coming. There's nothing gradual to his game. He either gets there quickly, or he doesn't at all. He needs to work hard on adding counters and becoming more physical. But if he can supplement that at all, he can be a dangerous pass rusher in the NFL. Pro Comp: Harold Landry
That's it guys. Hope you can glean something from it. Let me know where I screwed up in the comments. Lol. Cheers.
First and only Mock Draft (1rd w/trades)
If you believe Ian Rapoport the media is putting out some very poor mocks to what GMs expect. Here's my crack at a chaos draft and the only mock I'll be doing this season. Let me know what you think, if you're happy with how your team made out, etc. submitted by adam38ike to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]
CIN -Joe Burrow qb LSU
Okay so this is going to be an odd mock, but not that odd. Cinci takes qb1 with the first.
WSH- Tua Tagovailoa qb Bama
Redskins pull the same move the Cardinals did a year ago and take their actual heir to the offense after a disappointing year from Haskins.
DET- Chase Young edge OSU
The best edge defender in the class fall to Matt Patricia and co. Not a whole lot of teams that couldn’t use a player like Young.
NY- Jerry Jeudy wr Bama
Who really knows what Gettleman is thinking? Possibly trying to replicate what he had in OBJ the Giants take one of the top tier receivers early.
MIA- Andrew Thomas ot Georgia
Washington already threw this whole draft into chaos with one pick. Regardless however, the Dolphins are rolling with Rosen for a year and using their draft capital on non qb positions in this mock.
LA- Justin Herbert qb Oregon
While I tried to incorporate a lot of chaos into this draft, this pick seems the most sensible me regardless of what happens in the first five picks.
CAR- Isaiah Simmons db Clemson
Most athletic tweener we’ve seen so far. Shouldn’t drop out of the top ten even if it’s a crazy draft.
ARI- Tristan Wirfs ot Iowa
Most athletic tackle in the class and a serious need.
JAX- Jedrick Wills ot Bama
While it’s true the Jags have lots of holes everywhere, its hard to find premier talent at the tackle position.
*TRADE* CLE gives pk 10 (1300) for Den pk 15, 77, 95 (1375)
DEN- Henry Ruggs III wr Bama
The broncos jump ahead of the other receiver needy teams to grab their selection of the big three receivers. This speed in Tandem with Lock’s arm is a scary thought.
*TRADE* NYJ give pk 11, 48, 120 (1724) for SF pk 13, 30 ( 1750)
SF- CeeDee Lamb wr Oklahoma
Whoop whoop! Back to back trades here as the Niners leapfrog the Raiders to grab one of the big three wide receivers.
LV- Jeffery Okudah db OSU
Not a bad consolation prize for striking out on the top three wideouts in the draft.
NYJ- CJ henderson db Florida
Cornerback is glaring need for the Jets. If it’s true that front offices don’t see a huge gap between Okudah and Henderson I’m sure they won’t mind missing out on Okudah to pick up a second first rounder.
TB- Mekhi Becton ot Louisville
Probably my least favorite pick to make in this draft. If you truly believe his athletic traits will have an immediate impact however, he’s probably the guy who can most help out TB12
Cle- Kenneth Murray lb Oklahoma
Missing out on the top three tackles sucks, but I’m assuming here that they dislike Becton and would rather accumulate some draft capital. Murray has received nothing but praise through the draft process and sounds to be the makings of a future defensive captain.
ATL- Javon Kinlaw idl SCAR
This guy moves mountains. Really I don’t think he should fall out of the top ten, but here he is.
DAL-Jaylon Johnson db Utah
With the departure of Byron Jones, Dallas could definitely use some help at the cornerback position. Most would consider this a huge reach, but hey that’s why we’re here right?
MIA- AJ Epenesa edge Iowa
No qb for Miami again. Instead they get the edge rusher from Iowa who for some reason has been free falling down boards.
*TRADE* LV pk 19,91 (1011) for IND 34,44 (1020)
IND- Jordan Love qb Utah State
Thirty-eight year old Phillip Rivers is not the long term solution. He may or may not be able to help the Colts contend this year but he can definitely help groom the quarterback to steer ship. Colts get back into the first round to get a five year deal for a future qb.
JAX- Grant Delpit db LSU
Every mock I’ve been reading lately leaves this guy out of the first round. He’s an elite ball hawk and in a regular offseason I’d be surprised if he lasted this long in the first round.
Phi- Justin Jefferson wr LSU
I think any other pick besides wideout here and Philly might get burnt to the ground.
Min- Derrick Brown idl Auburn
He shouldn’t last this long, but he does because teams simply can’t help themselves. Bargain for the Vikings.
NE- Zach Baun lb Wisco
Who knows what Belichick is thinking? Whoever he picks will probably turn into a stud. Maybe he trades this pick for every single fourth rounder and they all become pro-bowlers.
NO- Patrick Queen lb LSU
I mean NO has a really complete roster. With Indy jumping ahead for Love, this is a guy who can be a top tier talent and won’t be absolutely forced into starting right away.
Min- Kristian Fulton db LSU
Another team with cb needs. I don’t think many expect Fulton to get this far down the first round but that’s alright. Minny with another steal.
MIA- Cesat Ruiz iol Michigan
Another Lineman? You bet. Ruiz a center at Michigan also played guard for more than a handful of games and is one of, if not THE, top interior linemen in the draft. An unlikely destination but I’m sure Rosen is going to appreciate the help.
SEA- Darnay Holmes db UCLA
A guy who can come in and start at nickel right away, this pick would surprise a lot of people who have Holmes stuffed way down their big boards.
Bal- Laviska Shenault JR wr Colorado
Injury? Bust potential? Positionless? Maybe all of those things, but if there is one team that knows how to use and adapt to unique skill sets it’s Baltimore. Just look at Lamar and marquise who are thriving under Harbaugh and Roman.
TEN- Jordan Elliot idl Mizzou
No Gallimore, No Blacklock, No Davidson. JE is criminally underrated and the Titans land a guy who is going to become a nasty tandem with Simmons.
GB- Chase Claypool wr Notre Dame
Packers finally get another wideout for Rodgers. Logical position choice considering all the good linebackers were taken but most would be surprised to see Claypool sneak into the first round ahead of other talents like Mims, Reagor, or Aiyuk.
NYJ- Austin Jackson ot USC
Jets finally get a piece for their line at a pick where they feel it isn’t a reach. Trading for the Niners first round pick allows them the fifth year rookie option at a premier position. Jackson, who came into the season with literally no offseason program or training, still excelled and was likely not even in top tier form.
*TRADE* KC pk 32 (590) for MIA pk 39, 141, 154, 173, 251 (602)
MIA- D’Andre Swift rb Georgia
Here we see the importance of that fifth year option. Miami gives up some of their massive capital to go up and take the first running back off the board.
Value of a Half Point and Getting the Best Number
Value of a Half Point and Getting the Best Number submitted by cleatstreet to sportsbook [link] [comments]
It's crazy to think we've already watched 8 weeks of NCAAF and 7 weeks of the NFL season, so this may seem late, but I’d like to offer you a refresher on conditional probabilities and how they can be used in betting football.
At its core, sports betting is about estimating the probability of an event occurring. To find value, you then compare your estimate with the implied probability of the payout that is offered from a sportsbook. For example, if you estimate the probability of Notre Dame covering the spread against Michigan to be 55.0%, it’s probably worth a bet if you can get -110 odds on Notre Dame (52.4% breakeven probability). Conditional Probabilities
However, what is often oversimplified is the fact that your estimate is actually a conditional probability
. Your estimate of 55.0% probability of Notre Dame covering is conditional
on the fact that 1) the teams that are playing are Notre Dame and Michigan (duh), 2) that Notre Dame is a 3.5-point underdog, and 3) whatever else is an input into your model. If Notre Dame were a 1.0-point underdog instead, which is where the current spread is, your probability would be different. This is what makes totals and spreads incrementally harder to model than money lines
. Betting a money line, you only need to consider the odds (set by a sportsbook) and the probability of the team winning. Betting the spread, however, requires you to account for the odds and the probability of a team covering the spread, both of which (the odds and the spread) are set by the sportsbook.
To complicate things further, in football, scoring is usually done in increments of 3 and 7. This causes football scores to fall on certain stores much more frequently than others, resulting in a unique distribution of the margin of victory. You likely have heard of the phrase “key numbers” (such as 3, 7, 10, 14 and 21) which are the most frequent margins of victory in NCAA football, accounting for almost 30% of outcomes over the last five seasons. Below, we’ve displayed the frequency of occurrence of the 10 most frequent outcomes in NCAA football, representing almost half of games played. https://imgur.com/a/f7mbksF
The frequency of a game ending in a 21-point margin is historically around 4 percent, but Team A could be on the winning or losing side of that game. So with this data, we should be able to conclude that the likelihood of a Team A winning by 21 points is approximately 2 percent, right? Not quite.
For example, Oklahoma is playing Kansas State on Saturday. Oklahoma, as the favorite, has a much higher likelihood of winning the game by 21 points than Kansas State.
So let’s look at the frequency of winning by 21, conditional
on being the favorite. Of the 4,157 games played over the last five seasons, 32 games were a pick-em, leaving 4,125 instances where there was a favorite and an underdog. There were also 165 instances of a game ending in a 21-point victory, of which 132 of them were won by the favorite. Therefore, conditional on being a favorite, the frequency of winning by 21 points has been 3.2%
(132/4125) over the past five years.
Unfortunately, this is not enough to say that a team that is favored by 21 points has a 3.2% probability of pushing. Not all favorites are the same, as some are small favorites and some are large favorites. What we’d like to do is isolate the games that feature a 21-point favorite, or thereabouts.
Over the last five seasons, there have been 219 games featuring a favorite between 20 and 22 points. (Note: we used 20-22 rather than 21 for the sake of increasing our sample size, and therefore our confidence in these insights.) In those 219 games, the favorite won by exactly 21 points on 15 occasions, or 6.8% of the time
. While we don’t know with certainty that this represents the true probability of pushing a bet as a 21-point favorite (as there are many other factors in a game), we are much more comfortable with this figure than any of the figures calculated above. Value of a Half Point
Let’s assume that you want to bet Cal v Utah on Saturday and some books have Cal +21 at -110 while others have Cal +21.5 at -125. Which is the better bet?
Using our push percentage of 6.8%, this turns into a simple arithmetic problem to determine the sportsbooks’ hold. By taking the sum-product of each outcome and the respective payout, we can determine the expected return and expected hold. As you can see below, it is more advantageous for us to lay -125 to get that extra half point to avoid the push. https://imgur.com/a/YpSCGDQ Getting the Best Number
Of course, none of this matters unless you have the option to bet both of those lines. This is one of the fundamental reasons why I’ve previously advocated having accounts at multiple sportsbooks.
Hopefully this provides some insight into how to choose lines! As always, please leave feedback in the comments below!
2020 National Championship Odds
submitted by OpenVisionZ to CFBVegas [link] [comments]
What Clemson's Drop To Number Two Means, Historically Speaking
submitted by ShamusJohnson13 to CFB [link] [comments]
So, as we all know, Clemson dropped from No 1 to No 2 in the AP Poll after a very narrow victory over the Tar Heels. This isn't the first time a team has dropped after a win, either, as shown by this quote here: “The No. 1 team has won and dropped in the rankings 90 times since the AP poll started in 1936, including four times when there was a tie for No. 1.”
Now, of course this had me curious: how did
those teams turn out? Were they winners or were they clearly overrated? And how does that impact what we saw on Sunday? So I went through and found all the AP No 1 teams that dropped to No 2 after a win and wrote them here with the date that it happened and where they ended up in parentheses.
The teams that dropped:
Nov 14, 1937- TCU (won title)
Nov 20, 1939- Tennessee (finished 2nd)
Dec 4, 1939- Texas A&M (won title)
Dec 11, 1939- Tennessee (see Nov 20, 1939)
Nov 11, 1940- Cornell (finished 15th)
Nov 3, 1941- Minnesota (won title)
Oct 19, 1942- Georgia (finished 2nd)
Oct 30, 1944- Notre Dame (finished 9th)
Dec 2, 1946- Army (finished 2nd)
Oct 13, 1947- Notre Dame (won title)
Oct 27, 1947- Michigan (finished 2nd)
Oct 11, 1948- Notre Dame (finished 2nd)
Oct 18, 1948- North Carolina (finished 3rd)
Nov 1, 1948- Michigan (won title)
Nov 8, 1948- Notre Dame (see Oct 11, 1948)
Oct 23, 1950- Army (finished 2nd)
Nov 13, 1950- Army (see Oct 23, 1950)
Oct 15, 1951- Michigan State (finished 2nd)
Nov 12, 1951- Tennessee (won title)
Nov 19, 1951- Michigan State (see Oct 15, 1951)
Oct 6, 1952- Michigan State (won title)
Sep 27, 1954- Oklahoma (finished 3rd)
Oct 25, 1954- Oklahoma (see Sep 27, 1954)
Nov 1, 1954- Ohio State (won title)
Nov 15, 1954- UCLA (finished 2nd)
Oct 10, 1955- Maryland (finished 3rd)
Oct 24, 1955- Michigan (finished 12th)
Nov 7, 1955- Maryland (see Oct 10, 1955)
Oct 22, 1956- Oklahoma (won title)
Nov 12, 1956- Oklahoma (see Oct 22, 1956)
Nov 19, 1956- Tennessee (finished 2nd)
Oct 14, 1957- Oklahoma (finished 4th)
Oct 28, 1957- Oklahoma (see Oct 14, 1957)
Nov 25, 1957- Michigan State (finished 3rd)
Sep 29, 1958- Ohio State (finished 8th)
Oct 6, 1958- Oklahoma (finished 5th)
Oct 13, 1958- Auburn (finished 4th)
Oct 3, 1960- Ole Miss (finished 2nd)
Oct 10, 1960- Syracuse (finished tied 19th)
Oct 17, 1960- Ole Miss (see Oct 3, 1960)
Oct 9, 1961- Iowa (finished unranked)
Oct 16, 1961- Ole Miss (finished 5th)
Oct 1, 1962- Alabama (finished 5th)
Oct 15, 1962- Alabama (see Oct 1, 1962)
Nov 2, 1964- Ohio State (finished 9th)
Sep 20, 1965- Nebraska (finished 5th)
Oct 25, 1965- Arkansas (finished 3rd)
Oct 17, 1966- Michigan State (finished 2nd)
Nov 25, 1968- USC (finished 4th)
Oct 26, 1970- Ohio State (finished 5th)
Nov 9, 1970- Texas (finished 3rd)
Nov 16, 1970- Notre Dame (finished 2nd)
Sep 16, 1974- Oklahoma (won title)
Sep 23, 1974- Notre Dame (finished 6th)
Oct 6, 1975- Oklahoma (won title)
Sep 12, 1977- Oklahoma (finished 7th)
Sep 26, 1977- Michigan (finished 9th)
Dec 3, 1979- Alabama (won title)
Sep 13, 1980- Ohio State (finished 15th)
Sep 13, 1982- Pittsburgh (finished 10th)
Oct 25, 1982- Washington (finished 7th)
Nov 17, 1987- Oklahoma (finished 3rd)
Sep 29, 1992- Miami (FL) (finished 3rd)
Oct 20, 1992- Washington (finished 11th)
Nov 3, 1992- Miami (FL) (see Sep 29, 1992)
Sep 6, 1994- Florida (finished 7th)
Sep 13, 1994- Nebraska (won title)
Nov 1, 1994- Penn State (finished 2nd)
Oct 31, 1995- Florida State (finished 4th)
Sep 22, 1997- Penn State (finished 16th)
Oct 20, 1997- Penn State (see Sep 22, 1997)
Nov 10, 1997- Nebraska (finished 2nd)
Oct 1, 2000- Nebraska (finished 8th)
Sep 2, 2001- Florida (finished 3rd)
Oct 7, 2001- Miami (FL) (won title)
Nov 3, 2002- Miami (FL) (finished 2nd)
Sep 30, 2007- USC (finished 3rd)
Sep 2, 2008- Georgia (finished 13th)
Oct 18, 2009- Florida (finished 3rd)
Oct 25, 2009- Alabama (won title)
Dec 5, 2010- Oregon (finished 3rd)
Sep 25, 2011- Oklahoma (finished 16th)
Oct 12, 2014- Florida State (finished tied 5th)
Nov 8, 2015- Ohio State (finished 4th)
Sep 29, 2019- Clemson (???)
While being toppled midseason despite winning is not a death sentence (see 2009 Alabama and 2001 Miami among others, it’s definitely not a good sign for the team in question. Of the 74 previous teams to have been bumped, only 15 have gone on to win the AP Title, just a little over 20%. I don’t need to tell you that those aren’t great odds, and those odds only get worse (only 6 titles between 46 teams). Sure, that’s still better odds than ending up unranked like 1961 Iowa (when polls were only top ten until the final poll, where they became top twenty), but it’s clear that whenever the AP Poll shuffles a top team down, that usually means some major flaw reared its head. Will Clemson fix this issue and become the 16th team to win a title after a drop like this? Only time will tell, but if history has anything to say about it, I wouldn’t bet on it. Despite it supposedly being easier for teams like this to win the national title during the CFP era, the only two teams to suffer this (2014 FSU and 2015 OSU) would not win. Florida State would do this
in the Playoff while Ohio State ended up on the outside looking in. Even going back to the beginning of the BCS era, only two teams have finished number one despite this slide (2001 Miami and 2009 Alabama). Based on that alone, Clemson is as likely to wind up in ranked in the teens as they are to win a Natty.
Tldr; While not necessarily bad news, history generally doesn’t look to kindly on number one teams dropped in the polls after a win.
Iowa Pre-Flight was robbed of a title in 1943. Just sayin’.
During the 1950’s the “Number One Team Wins But Still Drops In The Polls” occurred 22 times. If you were to count backwards from today using that as a benchmark, you’d find yourself seeing Washington slip to Number 2 in 1992.
On November 27, 1967, Indiana (4th) was ranked higher than Alabama (8th)
There was a magical 3 week period in 1990 where Virginia was ranked number 1 in the AP Poll. They finished 23rd.
Since the turn of the millenium, having multiple instances of this has only occurred twice, in 2001 and 2009. We are currently tied with the longest drought of multiple occurrences of this in one season since the AP Poll’s inception (the other time being from 1982-1992)
The average final resting place of the team this happens to is 4.84, with a high of 1 and a low of unranked. Teams usually finish in the top 4.
This is the first time this has happened to Clemson. Oklahoma has had to deal with it 12 times. The next closest is a tie between Ohio State and Notre Dame (6).
WORK In prog
submitted by ZandrickEllison to romoadventureclub [link] [comments]
On our MTV Challenge Accepted podcast
(link in bold
) we have a segment where we discuss this question. Whose stock went up? Whose stock went down? Here were our winners and losers this week.
[OC] Which awards are locked in? Which are still up for debate? a glance through the odds and campaigns in each category
It feels like it's been 5 years since we've seen actual NBA basketball, which may make awards debates and campaigns more difficult. Wait, who was playing well again...? Dennis Schroder? Seriously? Huh. Okay then.
As we soldier back into the bubble, there's a risk that awards voters will forget about that early part of the season (aka the vast majority) and fall victim to recency bias. Given that, we wanted to glance through the major races and determine which -- if any -- awards may still be in debate.
For this exercise, I'm using the current odds as listed by an online betting site (bovada). Note: the percentages do NOT add up to 100%
because online betting sites like your money. MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo: - 3500 (97%)
LeBron James: +600 (14%)
is the race over?
This betting site heavily favors Giannis Antetokounmpo, although some other metrics have it closer than that. Basketball-reference's MVP tracker lists Giannis at 50.7% and LeBron at 17.3%.
I'm more inclined to believe the latter and that LeBron James would be closer to 15-20% odds. No doubt, Giannis is a worthy MVP. He's been a dominant force (again) for the top statistical team in the league (again.) He's racking up 30-14-6 in only 30.9 minutes per game. In most circumstances, he'd win this award in a walk.
That said, you can never discount "narrative," and LeBron James has a few of those going for him. The Lakers have vaulted up to the # 1 seed in the West, outperforming preseason expectations. James has played exceptionally well, and even led the league in assists. Partly because of that, James' camp has successfully gotten the media to buy into the storyline that he made a sudden transition to point guard (ya know, because he had always deferred to his point guards like Mo Williams and Mario Chalmers in the past...)
More than that, James may benefit from this strange corona-bubble. He's been a leading advocate for continuing on, and as always, players tend to follow his lead. I can see more than a few media members giving James an MVP vote for "saving the season." All in all, I expect this vote to be closer than it should be (and I expect poor James Harden to finish well behind where he should as well.)
So James will get some votes, but can he actually win the award? I wouldn't rule it out. The Lakers are currently 3 games behind the Bucks for the # 1 overall seed. It's hard to imagine Milwaukee losing enough to slip, but it's not Wallace Shawn inconceivable either. If the Lakers somehow manage to catch them, then I actually think LeBron will win MVP. Of course, it's more likely the Bucks will hang onto the # 1 seed, and Giannis will hang onto MVP. But again, I don't think it's a stone cold lock -- yet.
Rookie of the Year
Ja Morant: - 3500 (97%)
Zion Williamson: +850 (11%)
is the race over?
It should be. Zion Williamson is freakin' amazing, but he's played 19 games so far. That's 40 less than Ja Morant, who has played stellar ball for a rookie from a small school, and somehow led the Memphis Grizzlies to the 8th seed.
Still, we can't rule out the risk of recency bias and a wild overreaction from the media. Williamson has a chance to lead the Pelicans up to the 9th spot, at which point they'd play Morant's Grizzlies. If Williamson can lead New Orleans to two victories over Memphis in a row -- and thus leapfrog them in the standings -- then it's very feasible the media would throw their vote his way. The media (and the league as a whole) tends to like this Zion fella, if you haven't noticed.
Dennis Schroder: - 220 (69%)
Montrezl Harrell: +190 (34%)
Lou Williams: +450 (18%)
Derrick Rose: +3000 (3%)
is the race over?
Simply put: no. It's still a three-man race in my book. The Clippers' Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell finished 1-2 last season, and are right back in the thick of things this year. Among the two, it's harder to justify Williams' winning for the third season in a row. He hasn't played as well as last year, and hasn't been as big of a focal point for the Clippers' game plan. He hasn't looked as engaged this season, and even debated missing the bubble.
With Sweet Lou taking a slight step back, it's opened the door for Dennis Schroder. He's having a career season in terms of efficiency. In fact, it's hard to understate his jump this year. In his six previous season, his career high TS% was only 53.3%. This season? He's vaulted up to 57.3%. The question is: have enough voters noticed? OKC has been a feel-good story this year, but Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tend to get the most credit for that.
Overall, I wouldn't be surprised if voters get lazy and just fall back on the highest scorer among the three. And even by those standards, the race is wide open. Schroder is at 19.0 PPG, Williams is at 18.7 PPG, and Harrell is at 18.6 PPG. A strong (or bad) week or two in the bubble may tilt this race in any direction.
Defensive Player of the Year
Giannis Antetokounmpo: -500 (83%)
Anthony Davis: +200 (33%)
Rudy Gobert: +2800 (3%)
is the race over?
Even among savvy and analytically-inclined media members, "defense" is still something of a mystery to quantify. We see a lot of herd mentality emerge for DPOY voting, with candidates needing to stake their claim early on and campaign all season long.
In terms of storylines and narratives, it felt like Anthony Davis had the early momentum. He's a wrecking ball (1.5 steals, 2.4 blocks) who helped improve the Lakers' defense from # 12 to # 3 this season. Still, Giannis Antetokounmpo has steadily built his case for a double MVP + DPOY, and currently ranks as the betting favorite on this site.
Personally, I believe it's a closer race than these numbers suggest. At the same time, I'm not sure what their play in the bubble is going to do about it. More likely, it'll be an influential media piece (like Zach Lowe pushing for Marc Gasol) that may get voters ushering on one side or another.
Bam Adebayo: -150 (60%)
Brandon Ingram: +250 (29%)
Luke Doncic: +500 (17%)
Jayson Tatum: +900 (10%)
Devonte Graham: +1000 (9%)
is the race over?
Again, this race feels "too close to call" to me. John King and David Chalian may be tallying up the counties all night long.
Earlier this season, I looked back at previous Most Improved winners and tried to find some common threads. On average, the winner improved from 11.7 PPG to 19.6 PPG (roughly +8 points.)
Historically speaking, Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum fit close to those templates. Ingram has swelled from 18.3 PPG to 24.3 PPG in his first season in New Orleans (+6). Tatum has made an even bigger leap, going from 15.7 PPG to 23.6 PPG (essentially our exact +8). Of the two, I may lean more to Ingram myself. Tatum's taking more shots and more threes, but he was already considered a proven star prior to this. Ingram had been more of a question mark before, but has now established himself as a potential max player. The key for him has been an improved FT%. In his first three seasons, he shot 62%, 68%, and 68% from the line. This year, he's up to 86%. That's major progress, and represents a massive difference in his efficiency "floor." Still, you wonder if Ingram's momentum peaked too early. Ever since Zion Williamson came back, it feels like Ingram has been an afterthought in the media.
Conversely, Bam Adebayo's reputation within the media is still surging. He's been a major reason for the Miami Heat's success this year, nearly doubling from 8.9 PPG to 16.2 PPG (+7.3 overall.) He's also doubled his assists (from 2.2 to 5.1). If you wanted to nitpick Adebayo's candidacy, you may suggest he was pretty darn good already. A lot of the statistical upswing comes from an increase in minutes, from 23.3 to 34.4 this year.
Overall, I'd say Abebayo is the favorite, but I wouldn't lock it in yet. A player like Brandon Ingram could get hot and have a few 40 point games, at which point the momentum may swing back in his favor.
When anthropology professors
99 cent store free agents: Point Guards
The NBA offseason is always filled with exciting storylines like star free agents and blockbuster trades.
But rather than dwell on the obvious, this series intends to do the opposite: focus on the lower-profile free agents who may have some value to teams. No NBA player is actually "99 Cents," of course, but these are all players who may be bargains based on their perceived market.
This "99 Cent Store" series has been open for business for the last two offseasons. In the past, we've highlighted names like Fred VanVleet (pre breakout), Christian Wood, and Davis Bertans. Not all of the items turn out to be gems (is Nerlens Noel still not a DPOY candidate yet?), but the returns have been largely positive so far. Let's see if we can keep that momentum going this season.
99 cent store Langston Galloway, Detroit Pistons, UFA, 28 years old
In last year's 99 Cent Store, we hyped up Seth Curry (Steph's brother) as a possible value free agent. Seth didn't have the size and skill set of a traditional point guard, but the NBA isn't always craving traditional point guards these days. A lot of star SGs, SFs, PFs, and even Cs have the ball in their hands, so teams need to fill the court with a supporting cast that can complement them and provide spacing. Effectively an undersized SG, Seth's excellent shooting appeared to be a perfect complement to a ball-dominant superstar. Seth ended up going to Dallas on a moderate contract, and had a strong season for them in that role.
For those same reasons, we'd recommend Langston Galloway as a potential bargain add. We're not going to suggest that Galloway is as good as Seth Curry as a player or as a shooter, but his skill set is related. He's not Steph Curry -- he's not Seth Curry -- he's on the opposite side of the family tree. He's like the random third cousin who shows up at the barbecue and hogs all the mac n' cheese. Still, if he got the address, then he must have some relation to the family we know and love.
Galloway would share some DNA in the sense that he's also a "point guard" who's more of an undersized shooting guard by nature. He doesn't have the ball skills or playmaking to run an offense. At all. However, he can be effective if operating as a 3+D guard. Players like Patrick Beverly and George Hill are the premium prototypes of that skill set, and Galloway is the 99 Cent store generic brand. He's an above-average as a shooter (36.7% from three for his career), and above-average as a defender, where his 6'8" wingspan helps his cause. And while it feels like Galloway has been around forever, he's still only 28 years old. He probably has 2-3 years left of usefulness in his role. There may be 1 or 2 teams that would start Langston Galloway (in a limited role), but almost every team could use him as part of the rotation.
HOU. Russell Westbrook and James Harden are ball dominant and salary-cap dominant players, making depth a constant struggle for the team. Backup PG Austin Rivers can probably get more money than he's due on his player option ($2.4M) even in a COVID-market, possibly creating another hole. Galloway would make sense as a replacement here, seeing as how he'd be able to play in a lineup with either Westbrook or Harden.
LAL. Avery Bradley may be skipping the playoffs, but there's still a chance the Lakers can win the title with some combination of Alex Caruso and Rajon Rondo at PG anyway. But what happens if it doesn't work out? What happens if Bradley and Rondo (both of whom have player options) get shuffled out? In that case, Galloway and Caruso could tag-team and provide a decent and low-cost 3+D guard spot for next year.
MIN. The Timberwolves tried the "no PG offense" for a majority of the season, and it didn't work out so hot. Now, they'll be handing the reins over to D'Angelo Russell full time. Galloway could be a nice backup for Russell; the two would have enough size to play some minutes alongside each other as well. You have to figure Gersson Rosas will prioritize shooters like Galloway as well. The team wants to play MoreyBall (top 3 in 3PA), but doesn't have the personnel yet to pull it off (bottom 3 in 3P%).
Yogi Ferrell, Sacramento Kings, UFA, 27 years old
He may be fairly anonymous now, but there was a time when the name "Yogi Ferrell" was a big deal in college basketball. The bluechip recruit immediately stepped into the starting lineup for Tom Crean's Indiana Hoosiers, helping to lead the team to a # 1 seed that first year on campus. But then a funny thing happened: the college star actually stayed in college. Ferrell would go on to play all 4 years (starting 137 of 137 games) for Indiana.
Through it, Ferrell developed the negative narrative that he was a "college player." Only 6'0" with average length and athleticism, he didn't have the look of a future pro. The NBA dismissed him, leading him to get undrafted. He's hung around since then, but his buzz has dwindled and dwindled. He played this past season as Sacramento's 3rd PG, only logging 11 minutes per game. Maybe they were right -- maybe he was never cut out for the NBA.
Then again... are we sure about that? Ferrell may not be the prototype, but he still has some virtues. Among those strengths: "basketball." He's a savvy, steady field general who has an above-average shot. He's hit 36.5% from three and 83.8% from the line over the course of his NBA career. He's not going to carry the load (14-4-4 per 36 minutes), but he's not going to rock the boat either. In fact, he only averages 1.5 turnovers per 36.
The concern with a player like Ferrell would be his limited size and athleticism, a combo that tends to translate into awful defense. But again, we haven't seen much evidence of that. Effort and basketball IQ can help overcome athletic weaknesses, and that appears to be the case with Ferrell. Limitations and all, Ferrell has registered only a -0.2 defensive box plus/minus.
Overall, this profile doesn't suggest any huge upside or any hidden "star" potential. But at the end of the day, this store isn't about star potential -- it's about value. Ferrell is a high-end third PG who can potentially be a true # 2. He'd make sense on a team like Orlando as a potential replacement for their own steady eddie backup D.J. Augustin (also a free agent.)
clearance rack Gary Payton II, Washington Wizards, UFA, 27 years old
On paper, you may wonder why Gary Payton II wasn't a bigger deal entering the NBA Draft. After all, we're talking about the son of an NBA superstar who had been productive in college. In his last season at Oregon State, he averaged 16.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, 7.8 assists, and 2.5 steals (!) How the heck did someone with that pedigree go undrafted?
Unfortunately for Payton, two factors worked against him. For one, he was a poor shooter. Second, he was "over-aged." After spending some time in community college with Jeff Winger and Dean Pelton, Payton would be a 24-year-old rookie, a major knock against him and his perceived upside. That criticism may have proven apt; Payton has not improved as much as a young pup may have. His three-point shooting has sagged around 25-30%, a major problem in today's NBA. In general, he's a below-average offensive player, averaging just 10-6-4 per 36 minutes.
That said, Payton does have some virtues on the other end. He's not quite "The Glove" (basketball-reference even dubs his official nickname "The Mitten"), but he's definitely a good defender. He's 6'3" with a 6'8" wingspan, and has proven to have sticky hands himself. After averaging 2.8 steals over two years at OSU, he's at 2.2 per 36 in the NBA. He makes some sense when paired together with a ball-dominant SG like a James Harden or Devin Booker or Bradley Beal. No, we're not talking about as a starter, or even as a lead backup, but as a 3rd PG who can add a different skill set to a bench. In that context, he's worth a roster spot. Is a 13th man not worth reading about to you? Well then, get the F out of our store, ya snob! This is what the 99 Cent Store is all about.
featured item E'Twaun Moore, New Orleans Pelicans, UFA, 31 years old
Collectively, NBA fans scratched their heads in confusion when the New Orleans Pelicans doled out $8.5M a year for anonymous E'Twaun Moore. After all, this was an unheralded a player, a R2 draft pick, a player who hadn't cracked 10 PPG in any of his first six seasons in the league. For all we knew, he was an NBA2k generated player.
Three years later, the contract doesn't look much better. Moore got buried this past season in a crowded Pelicans lineup, averaging only 18.8 minutes per game. He doesn't appear to be a part of the franchise's future plans at all. Moore will be tossed out into the darkness, left with no home, and perhaps no chance of matching that $8M salary ever again.
However, we have to be mindful as NBA fans not to lump in an "overpaid" player as a synonym for a "bad" player. Someone like Tobias Harris may not be worth his salary, but he's still a good starter. On a lower level, E'Twaun Moore may be the same way. Perhaps he's not worth $8-10M a year, but he's actually a solid addition to a rotation (even if the Pelicans squeezed him out.)
Moore's primary virtue is as a 3+D wing. At first glance he's not big enough for that role at 6'4", but he's aided by a pelican-like wingspan that stretches to near 6'10". He's not a great defender (now at age 31), but he's passable at both the SG and SF spots. Offensively, he'll help you as a spacer. He's hit on 39.0% of his threes for his career, and had actually gotten up to 42% and 43% the prior two seasons before he lost some rhythm this season.
That combination of skills makes Moore a good rotation player, and perhaps even a low-end starter on the right team. I wouldn't expect him to get "overpaid" again, but that's precisely what earns him a place in our store. He's a potential bargain buy right now.
BKN. SG Joe Harris is an excellent shooter, but he's also a free agent. Will the Nets pony up to keep him around? Or will he be jettisoned like others from the pre KD-Kyrie era? If he is, then E'Twaun Moore makes sense as a cheap replacement.
MIL. The shooting guard spot is the biggest question mark for the Bucks, and this offseason may add to the murkiness if Wes Matthews (player option) or Pat Connaughton (UFA) leave town. E'Twaun Moore would be a sensible filler, and platoon with Donte DiVincenzo.
SA. Do Gregg Popovich and the Spurs want to contend for the playoffs in 2020-21? Do they want to blow it up? TBD. But if their intention is to go for that 8th seed again, Moore may be an upgrade on smaller Bryn Forbes, who struggles on the defensive end.
99 cent store Shaquille Harrison, Chicago Bulls, UFA, 26 years old
Coaches and front offices love to tout that "defense is half the game!" That is, until it's time to actually pay a defensive player. Or draft a defensive player. Or even invite a defensive player onto the roster for a fully guaranteed contract.
Shaq Harrison has been dealing with that struggle for his entire professional career. Coming out of Tulsa, Harrison always had the chops defensively. He's long and agile enough to guard 1s and 2s and even some 3s. The trouble is: shooting was never his strong suit. Even as a senior, he only hit 19.5% from deep in the NCAA. Yikes. That's a surefire recipe to go "undrafted," which is exactly what Harrison did.
Since then, Harrison has been trying to improve his shot, the key for him to stick on an NBA roster. This past season, we've started to see some glimmers of progress there. He shot a career-high 38.1% from three, and a career-high 78.0% from the line. Now to be fair, those were both extremely small sample sizes (16-42 from three, 39-50 from the line), but it's still encouraging nonetheless. Because if Harrison can become a passable shooter, then his defensive abilities give him inherent value. He's legitimately one of the better perimeter defenders in the league. ESPN's real plus/minus listed his impact as a +2.5 on defense, which ranked as the 9th best player in the entire NBA (out of 503 qualifiers.) If a coaching staff feels confident in their player development and their shooting coaches, then Harrison would be an intriguing investment to make.
clearance rack John Konchar, Memphis Grizzlies, 24 years old
Last year, I included Philadelphia PG-SG Shake Milton in this column, causing Sixers fans to riot and demand that I mention the team had the right to extend his two-way contract if they wanted. The team did, and Milton will prove to be a bargain for them over the next few years. Similarly, the Memphis Grizzlies will have that opportunity to keep two-way player John Konchar on the team should they want. But if they don't, I'd be eyeing Konchar as a possible roster addition.
No doubt, there are reasons to doubt John Konchar's NBA prospects. He comes from a school that's so small that they didn't even know what to name it (shifting a few times before settling on "Purdue Fort Wayne"). And at the risk of being politically incorrect, we should also mention that he's white. NBA GMs don't exactly sit up and salivate when they see an undersized (6'5") white wing player walk into the gym.
All that said, Konchar has been productive time and time again. As you'd expect, he can hit the three pointer. But what's most intriguing about Konchar is his playing strength. He may be only 6'5" (6'7" wingspan) but he plays much bigger than that. As a college senior, he grabbed 8.5 rebounds a game and blocked 0.9 shots to boot. He also converted 62.9% of his field goals in two-point range. It may have been low level competition, but he flat-out bullied his opponents.
Naturally you'd presume: there's no way he can do that in the pros! But so far, so good. Konchar put up similar numbers in the G-League this season, hitting 56.5% from the field and grabbing 8.3 rebounds per game (in 30 minutes a night.) From there, you'd presume: there's no way he can do that in the actual NBA! Well, in his 160 minutes of NBA action, Konchar shot 65.7% from the field and averaged 9.9 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Clearly, it's too early to take this as gospel. But eventually, we're going to have to presume something else: maybe this dude is actually good. If I ran an NBA team, I'd want to run that experiment with Konchar in our uniform and not someone else's.
99 cent store Josh Jackson, Memphis Grizzlies, UFA, 23 years old
Like most of us on this sub, I have moments when I watch the NBA, watch the roster moves, watch the draft, and think: I could do that. Not play, of course, but perhaps build a team and winning roster. I've had a long and successful career in fantasy sports, so naturally a GM job would be the logical next step.
The 2017 NBA Draft was one of those moments for me. Prior to the draft, I wrote a few posts on here, explaining why consensus top prospect Markelle Fultz wouldn't have been my personal # 1 pick. Clearly, I am a genius operating on a higher plane than the Bryan Colangelos of the world. Unfortunately, the alternative prospect that I advocated for wasn't Jayson Tatum. Or De'Aaron Fox. Or even Lonzo Ball. Instead, I thought the # 1 prospect in the class was... Josh Jackson. Whoops. Turns out, Jackson became an even bigger bust than Fultz (for his original team), causing the Phoenix Suns to dump him and wash their hands clean. Turns out: I have no clue what I'm talking about after all.
But while I may have given up on my hidden genius, I'm still not ready to give up on Josh Jackson as a player. After all, no one expected Jackson to be a finished product. Back at Kansas, his shot looked funky and in need of an overhaul. Still, he had athleticism, defensive tenacity, and flashed some ball skills and passing ability. All in all, I thought he may develop into a player in the mold of a Jimmy Butler in time.
Unfortunately, his NBA career stumbled out of the gates. If you're going to be the next Jimmy Butler, you need to work at it. Jimmy Butler may be a polarizing media presence, but he's undoubtedly a hard worker. In contrast, Josh Jackson had some issues off the court that made you doubt his dedication. His shooting hadn't improved much either. Even now, he hit on only 31.9% of his threes (29.8% career.)
Still, if you're a stubborn Jackson optimist like I am, then you can see some flashes of progress here. After being humbled by a trip to the G-League and a trade to Memphis, Jackson has started to be effective again. This past season for the Grizzlies, he averaged 19.0 PPG, 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals, and 0.9 blocks per 36 minutes. He's never going to be Kawhi Leonard as a shooter, but there are ways he can be effective offensively. He converted 77.5% of his field goals inside (0-3 feet), which was up from 55% in the past, showing how improved strength and bulk may aid his game. He also shot 34.8% on corner threes -- still below-average, but better than before.
So where do we go from here? What can Josh Jackson become? If he continues to work on his craft without any problems behind the scenes, he looks like a good prospect again. After all, this is a kid who's still 23 (younger than rookie teammate Brandon Clarke.) Maybe it's too optimistic to think he can be the next Jimmy Butler, but maybe he can be a solid starter in the mold of a young Wilson Chandler. There's still some risk involved here, but it's worth an investment and gamble in the right circumstance (and for the right price.)
MEM. Jackson staying in Memphis is the most likely scenario. While the Grizzlies are in the 8th seed right now, they're still a young team. Ja Morant is 20. Jaren Jackson in 20. Jackson can fit into their timeline. The only question here is whether they already have a similar (and better) player in house in Justise Winslow.
CLE. The Memphis Grizzlies are a good young team. The Cavs are a bad young team. They need to add some more talent, especially at the wing. In theory, Jackson would be a nice complement to their undersized bomber guards like Darius Garland and Collin Sexton.
CHA. The Hornets need to find a star, somehow, some way. It's unlikely Josh Jackson becomes that star, but it's worth a shot. He's comparable to current forward Miles Bridges in terms of his worth/upside.
Daulton Hommes, San Antonio Spurs, 23 years old
Marial Shayok, Philadelphia 76ers, 24 years old
NBA general managers have a lot in common with Chris D'Elia: they like 'em young! They tend to dismiss college veterans as "over-aged" and salivate over teenagers instead. And to be fair, there's some logic there. A 22 or 23-year-old rookie likely doesn't have as much upside as a 19 or 20 year old. At the same time, not every NBA players needs to ooze with Giannis Antetokounmpo upside. Sometimes, you set the bar lower; you're just looking for a serviceable role player.
To my eye, Philadelphia's Marial Shayok is trending in that direction. He spent 5 years at college (gross!) -- the first 3 at Virginia, before transferring and playing for Iowa State in 2018-19. That last season, Shayok looked solid -- averaging 18.7 PPG with great shooting splits (50-39-88). The 6'6" wing also sported a 7'0" wingspan, which naturally makes you consider him as a potential 3+D prospect.
Still, the "age" issue prevented Shayok from going high -- landing at pick # 54 last season and earning only a two-way deal. That leverage puts the Sixers in the catbird seat here; they can bring Shayok back on a team-friendly deal, and likely will do just that after he played very well in the G-League. In fact, he averaged 27-7-5 per 36 minutes, hitting 36% from three and 89% from the line. Teams don't just let players like that go, especially when their depth is an issue already. However, if the Sixers decide to cast him aside, then Shayok should wash ashore on another team in a hurry.
Marvin Williams, Milwaukee Bucks, UFA, 34 years old
Chris Boucher, Toronto Raptors, RFA, 27 years old
Frank Kaminsky, Phoenix Suns, 27 years old
Bonzie Colson, 24 years old
Back in college at Notre Dame, Bonzie Colson felt like an anomaly. Here was a stocky 6'5" player who largely played as a smallball 5. He utilized his strength and wingspan (7'0") to bully opponents, averaging 19.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks as a senior.
Still... a 6'5" PF/C? You didn't play like that in the NBA.
Or do you...? The Houston Rockets are changing the paradigm with heavy minutes for P.J. Tucker (also 6'5") at center. Zion Williamson (6'6") will likely play a good amount of center as well for New Orleans. It may not ever be the norm, but it's not a ridiculous concept anymore. If you're an NBA team, it makes sense to at least have a lineup like that in your back pocket to break out in case of emergency.
Colson can capably fill that role (on the back-end of a roster) due to his natural savvy and his passable shooting (34% from 3 in the G-League.) Better still, he'd be dirt-cheap after some G-League and overseas stints. In fact, he may not cost much guaranteed money at all. If he shows up at camp in good shape, then there's a chance he sticks around. And let's be honest, the NBA -- and all of our lives -- are better off when there's at least one Bonzi/e around.
Nerlens Noel, Oklahoma City Thunder, 26 years old
Jakob Poelte, Mason Plumlee
Ekpe Udoh, 33 years old
Ivan Rabb, 23 years old
Langston Galloway, Detroit Pistons, UFA, 28 years old
CFP/Bowl Selection Day Announcements and Scheduled Threads
submitted by CFB_Referee to CFB [link] [comments]
We will be doing things a little bit differently this year for the Bowl Selection Day.
Bowl Announcement Thread Formatting/Rules
To make things much simpler and readable this year, we will be requiring a specific format for the thread titles to be in.
This format will be: and to play in the
Each thread will also only cover one bowl game. Even if the source is announcing multiple bowls, we want to allow for each bowl to be discussed independently of each other.
New Year's Six Bowl Games This year we will be having 8 different threads for the New Year's Six Bowls posted by CFB_Referee:
Other threads for these bowls will be removed.
- New Year's Six Prediction/Rumors/Speculation
- New Year's Six Discussion
- Rose Bowl Announcement
- Cotton Bowl Announcement
- Peach Bowl Announcement
- Fiesta Bowl Announcement
- Sugar Bowl Announcement
- Orange Bowl Announcement
Schedule This week we're going to have a busy Sunday alongside our busy Saturday for college football! We're going to have a series of official threads that merge normal Sunday threads, normal CFP weekly threads, and a few others tossed in. Threads about these topics are likely to be redirected into these threads.
What if Universities Gambled their Endowment on Football? The 2018 Endowment Stakes Retrospective
submitted by dasani3x to CFB [link] [comments]
The 2018 /CFB Endowment Stakes - A Retrospective Note: This post is best enjoyed on a desktop with old Reddit: click here
Hello all - over the course of last season I ran an ongoing series with the goal of determining what would happen if each FBS university staked their endowment on their football program. Each week, schools would gamble 50% of their endowment on the money line odds for each game they participated in.
I ran fourteen editions of this throughout the season. Unfortunately, due to work and health issues, by the end of the last season, I didn't have the time to create and submit the final post. Throughout the entire offseason, I planned on publishing the last version and it turns out I waited until the last possible week to publish content from the 2018 season. So without further ado, enjoy the last edition of the 2018 Endowment Stakes.
I tracked each and every game in 2018 with their betting implications in a Google Sheet
2018 Endowment Stake Results All amounts are in $ Billions
|Rank ||School ||Endowment ||Starting ||Growth |
|1 ||Northwestern Northwestern ||$28.72B ||$10.46B ||174.58% |
|2 ||Notre Dame Notre Dame ||$27.84B ||$11.80B ||135.97% |
|3 ||Texas Texas ||$21.23B ||$10.43B ||103.53% |
|4 ||Kentucky Kentucky ||$10.90B ||$1.28B ||751.32% |
|5 ||Ohio State Ohio State ||$10.50B ||$4.25B ||146.88% |
|6 ||Stanford Stanford ||$7.78B ||$24.80B ||-68.64% |
|7 ||Duke Duke ||$5.49B ||$6.84B ||-19.67% |
|8 ||Virginia Virginia ||$4.11B ||$8.62B ||-52.36% |
|9 ||Cincinnati Cincinnati ||$3.72B ||$1.17B ||219.43% |
|10 ||Washington State Washington State ||$2.96B ||$974.00M ||203.94% |
|11 ||Florida Florida ||$2.72B ||$1.61B ||68.77% |
|12 ||Michigan Michigan ||$2.37B ||$10.90B ||-78.26% |
|13 ||LSU LSU ||$2.04B ||$845.00M ||141.18% |
|14 ||Minnesota Minnesota ||$1.98B ||$3.49B ||-43.41% |
|15 ||Clemson Clemson ||$1.95B ||$621.00M ||213.61% |
|16 ||Syracuse Syracuse ||$1.87B ||$1.26B ||48.24% |
|17 ||Oklahoma Oklahoma ||$940.48M ||$1.65B ||-43.00% |
|18 ||Texas A&M Texas A&M ||$902.53M ||$4.53B ||-80.08% |
|19 ||UAB UAB ||$900.22M ||$425.00M ||111.82% |
|20 ||SMU SMU ||$859.85M ||$1.51B ||-43.21% |
|21 ||Wake Forest Wake Forest ||$767.75M ||$1.14B ||-32.71% |
|22 ||California California ||$716.16M ||$4.30B ||-83.35% |
|23 ||Washington Washington ||$689.87M ||$3.36B ||-79.47% |
|24 ||BYU BYU ||$643.20M ||$1.47B ||-56.24% |
|25 ||Iowa Iowa ||$586.82M ||$1.39B ||-57.69% |
|26 ||Pittsburgh Pittsburgh ||$557.48M ||$3.95B ||-85.89% |
|27 ||Army Army ||$546.00M ||$200.00M ||173.00% |
|28 ||Alabama Alabama ||$512.20M ||$683.00M ||-25.01% |
|29 ||Penn State Penn State ||$507.52M ||$3.99B ||-87.28% |
|30 ||Hawaii Hawaii ||$382.26M ||$296.00M ||29.14% |
|31 ||Wisconsin Wisconsin ||$381.38M ||$2.75B ||-86.11% |
|32 ||Buffalo Buffalo ||$333.39M ||$659.00M ||-49.41% |
|33 ||Purdue Purdue ||$323.41M ||$2.43B ||-86.66% |
|34 ||Tulane Tulane ||$322.81M ||$1.17B ||-72.43% |
|35 ||Boston College Boston College ||$285.79M ||$2.40B ||-88.09% |
|36 ||Georgia Georgia ||$278.01M ||$1.15B ||-75.87% |
|37 ||Liberty Liberty ||$276.68M ||$1.29B ||-78.55% |
|38 ||Michigan State Michigan State ||$271.72M ||$2.28B ||-88.06% |
|39 ||Oregon Oregon ||$258.00M ||$828.00M ||-68.84% |
|40 ||NC State NC State ||$252.37M ||$1.35B ||-81.31% |
|41 ||Oklahoma State Oklahoma State ||$251.68M ||$1.33B ||-81.01% |
|42 ||Temple Temple ||$248.89M ||$513.00M ||-51.48% |
|43 ||Utah State Utah State ||$236.22M ||$359.00M ||-34.20% |
|44 ||UCF Central Florida ||$220.98M ||$156.00M ||41.66% |
|45 ||Baylor Baylor ||$206.13M ||$1.23B ||-83.24% |
|46 ||Iowa State Iowa State ||$186.53M ||$839.00M ||-77.77% |
|47 ||Utah Utah ||$158.94M ||$1.08B ||-85.28% |
|48 ||Virginia Tech Virginia Tech ||$153.01M ||$1.70B ||-91.00% |
|49 ||Fresno State Fresno State ||$152.67M ||$154.00M ||-0.86% |
|50 ||Georgia Tech Georgia Tech ||$138.16M ||$1.88B ||-92.67% |
|51 ||Troy Troy ||$133.65M ||$104.00M ||28.51% |
|52 ||Ohio Ohio ||$132.83M ||$550.00M ||-75.85% |
|53 ||Arizona State Arizona State ||$132.40M ||$665.00M ||-80.09% |
|54 ||FIU Florida Intl ||$126.45M ||$196.00M ||-35.49% |
|55 ||TCU TCU ||$125.19M ||$1.52B ||-91.76% |
|56 ||Missouri Missouri ||$122.91M ||$1.00B ||-87.71% |
|57 ||Vanderbilt Vanderbilt ||$121.09M ||$4.10B ||-97.05% |
|58 ||Texas Tech Texas Tech ||$113.72M ||$1.20B ||-90.48% |
|59 ||Nevada Nevada ||$108.94M ||$334.00M ||-67.38% |
|60 ||West Virginia West Virginia ||$105.29M ||$566.00M ||-81.40% |
|61 ||USC USC ||$83.00M ||$5.10B ||-98.37% |
|62 ||Georgia Southern Georgia Southern ||$81.92M ||$50.00M ||63.83% |
|63 ||North Texas North Texas ||$76.95M ||$309.00M ||-75.10% |
|64 ||Old Dominion Old Dominion ||$72.69M ||$214.00M ||-66.03% |
|65 ||Auburn Auburn ||$66.62M ||$738.00M ||-90.97% |
|66 ||Miami (OH) Miami (OH) ||$66.06M ||$447.00M ||-85.22% |
|67 ||Tennessee Tennessee ||$58.06M ||$1.10B ||-94.72% |
|68 ||Mississippi State Mississippi State ||$50.40M ||$470.00M ||-89.28% |
|69 ||Marshall Marshall ||$49.38M ||$110.00M ||-55.10% |
|70 ||Houston Houston ||$48.16M ||$697.00M ||-93.09% |
|71 ||Illinois Illinois ||$47.97M ||$3.46B ||-98.61% |
|72 ||Appalachian State Appalachian State ||$47.54M ||$95.00M ||-49.96% |
|73 ||Charlotte Charlotte ||$46.10M ||$182.00M ||-74.67% |
|74 ||Boise State Boise State ||$45.02M ||$98.00M ||-54.06% |
|75 ||South Carolina South Carolina ||$42.91M ||$771.00M ||-94.43% |
|76 ||Arizona Arizona ||$35.71M ||$742.00M ||-95.19% |
|77 ||San Diego State San Diego State ||$35.54M ||$262.00M ||-86.44% |
|78 ||Indiana Indiana ||$34.62M ||$1.99B ||-98.26% |
|79 ||UCLA UCLA ||$32.03M ||$4.35B ||-99.26% |
|80 ||Western Michigan Western Michigan ||$31.24M ||$387.00M ||-91.93% |
|81 ||Miami Miami ||$28.46M ||$949.00M ||-97.00% |
|82 ||Colorado Colorado ||$26.10M ||$1.06B ||-97.54% |
|83 ||Wyoming Wyoming ||$24.92M ||$500.00M ||-95.02% |
|84 ||Kansas Kansas ||$23.29M ||$1.61B ||-98.55% |
|85 ||Northern Illinois Northern Illinois ||$21.54M ||$75.00M ||-71.27% |
|86 ||Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech ||$21.49M ||$100.00M ||-78.51% |
|87 ||Kansas State Kansas State ||$20.43M ||$506.00M ||-95.96% |
|88 ||Maryland Maryland ||$20.40M ||$542.00M ||-96.24% |
|89 ||UNLV UNLV ||$19.60M ||$231.00M ||-91.52% |
|90 ||USF South Florida ||$16.96M ||$442.00M ||-96.16% |
|91 ||Toledo Toledo ||$16.89M ||$416.00M ||-95.94% |
|92 ||North Carolina North Carolina ||$13.38M ||$3.90B ||-99.66% |
|93 ||Florida State Florida State ||$12.50M ||$707.00M ||-98.23% |
|94 ||Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan ||$11.45M ||$67.00M ||-82.92% |
|95 ||Nebraska Nebraska ||$10.67M ||$1.48B ||-99.28% |
|96 ||Southern Miss Southern Mississippi ||$10.23M ||$117.00M ||-91.26% |
|97 ||Ole Miss Ole Miss ||$9.20M ||$606.00M ||-98.48% |
|98 ||Akron Akron ||$7.38M ||$238.00M ||-96.90% |
|99 ||Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee ||$7.35M ||$59.00M ||-87.54% |
|100 ||UMass UMass ||$6.70M ||$768.00M ||-99.13% |
|101 ||Louisiana Louisiana ||$6.61M ||$178.00M ||-96.29% |
|102 ||Rice Rice ||$6.03M ||$5.32B ||-99.89% |
|103 ||Arkansas State Arkansas State ||$5.51M ||$55.00M ||-89.99% |
|104 ||FAU Florida Atlantic ||$4.39M ||$275.00M ||-98.40% |
|105 ||ULM UL Monroe ||$4.22M ||$23.00M ||-81.65% |
|106 ||Oregon State Oregon State ||$4.11M ||$549.00M ||-99.25% |
|107 ||Colorado State Colorado State ||$3.98M ||$330.00M ||-98.80% |
|108 ||Ball State Ball State ||$3.63M ||$193.00M ||-98.12% |
|109 ||Tulsa Tulsa ||$3.62M ||$958.00M ||-99.62% |
|110 ||New Mexico New Mexico ||$2.68M ||$423.00M ||-99.37% |
|111 ||Memphis Memphis ||$2.22M ||$199.00M ||-98.88% |
|112 ||ECU East Carolina ||$1.93M ||$208.00M ||-99.07% |
|113 ||Coastal Carolina Coastal Carolina ||$1.71M ||$26.00M ||-93.43% |
|114 ||South Alabama South Alabama ||$1.57M ||$497.00M ||-99.69% |
|115 ||Bowling Green Bowling Green ||$1.37M ||$148.00M ||-99.08% |
|116 ||WKU Western Kentucky ||$1.31M ||$126.00M ||-98.96% |
|117 ||Arkansas Arkansas ||$1.15M ||$1.00B ||-99.88% |
|118 ||Texas State Texas State ||$1.15M ||$187.00M ||-99.38% |
|119 ||Air Force Air Force ||$954.54K ||$49.00M ||-98.05% |
|120 ||New Mexico State New Mexico State ||$768.80K ||$168.00M ||-99.54% |
|121 ||Louisville Louisville ||$725.83K ||$719.00M ||-99.90% |
|122 ||Rutgers Rutgers ||$622.56K ||$1.20B ||-99.95% |
|123 ||UTSA UTSA ||$605.68K ||$162.00M ||-99.63% |
|124 ||Navy Navy ||$558.40K ||$223.00M ||-99.75% |
|125 ||Georgia State Georgia State ||$530.00K ||$186.00M ||-99.72% |
|126 ||Connecticut UConn ||$234.28K ||$422.00M ||-99.94% |
|127 ||Kent State Kent State ||$177.88K ||$111.00M ||-99.84% |
|128 ||UTEP UTEP ||$152.03K ||$217.00M ||-99.93% |
|129 ||San Jose State San Jose State ||$92.35K ||$143.00M ||-99.94% |
|130 ||Central Michigan Central Michigan ||$81.11K ||$130.00M ||-99.94% |
For all 130 teams with each week's results, please see Google Sheet
Throughout 2018, the /cfb Sports Book took home a $61.10B profit There were winners and (mostly) losers when it came to gambling this season. 17 programs added to their endowment, with Kentucky Kentucky leading the way with a staggering 751.32% growth. 113 programs lost a varying amount, with Rutgers Rutgers shedding the largest percentage of their endowment at -99.95%.
I had a great time publishing this series throughout the course of last season. While not an avid gambler myself, I am intrigued by sports betting and this was a great exercise to see the effect of money line gambling. A big thank you to all who followed along last season and left notes/feedback.
I've received a handful of PM's asking if this series will be coming back for another season. The short answer is probably no, with shifting work responsibility I don't have the capability to do this on my own. A great deal of work went into each week of posting, and I fear I don't have the capability to do this on my own this season. If you are interested in helping out and keeping the season alive, PM me and we can see if there is a way to make it work
There was some discussion throughout the season of making an interactive version of this, where users could gamble on a set of games each week; if you have the capability to manage that, please PM me and let me know
Past Editions: Week 13 Week 12 Week 11 Week 10 Week 9 Week 8 Week 7 Week 6 Week 5 Week 4 Week 3 Week 2 Week 1 Week 0 Pre-Season
Thank you again for the support on this series and have a great 2019 season!
Week 6 Watchability Rankings
We move onto week 6 in College Football, and it isn't a pretty schedule. Not too many big games, and not too many games in general, lot of bye weeks. Which ones should you watch? I've ranked all FBS vs FBS games, starting with... submitted by SportsDude012 to CFB [link] [comments]
Group of 5 Blowouts/Ugly Games 44) UTSA vs UTEP - 8:00, ESPN+: 2 of the worst teams in the country face off in the Sun Bowl this week. UTSA should have the edge here, as they have a much better run D. This will be a ground and pound game, which the Roadrunners will win.
43) Massachusetts vs Florida International - 7:00, ESPN3: In a battle of 1-win teams, FIU will be the ones getting their second win. UMass has one win this year, and that was vs 0-5 Akron last week. FIU has had much closer losses, and the home-field advantage here.
42) Liberty vs New Mexico State - 8:00, Check local listings: The first of 2 meetings between these teams this year will be terrible! Liberty has the better offense, and unless NMSU forces a shootout like they did with New Mexico, they'll win by 10+.
41) Rice vs UAB - 7:00, ESPN+: Rice may not win a single game this year, that's how bad they are. UAB has a very solid defense, and Rice can't score at all. Unless they pull off a miracle and learn how to score, they'll get dominated.
40) Ball State vs Northern Illinois - 3:30, ESPN3: NIU has had a terrifying 3 game stretch against all Power 5 teams, but now they can settle down. This is an easy nominee for ugliest game of the week. It has bad offenses, rain, and good defense.
39) Boise State vs UNLV: 10:30, CBS Sports Network: I hate putting teams as good as Boise this low, since you need to see just how good they are. Thing is, UNLV is freaking terrible. Make sure you watch the Broncos sometime this year, but not this week.
38) Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan - 3:00, ESPN+: I'm very confused about EMU. They beat Illinois by 3 two games ago, and beat Central Connecticut State by only 5 last week. They'll have a great shot at a win here, but, honestly, neither of these teams will be a factor in the MAC.
37) Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion - 6:00, ESPN+: Stat of the day: WKU is leading the East Division of Conference USA despite losing to an FCS team week one. That says more about the quality of teams in that division than anything else. Either way, they win here.
36) San Diego State vs Colorado State - 10:00, ESPN2: SDSU is only a 7.5 point favorite here. I'd rush to my Local sportsbook and place a bet on them immediately. Their D is amazing, and the offense will do more than enough to win.
35) Memphis vs Louisiana-Monroe: 3:45, ESPNU: Which will be a higher total: Number of fans in attendance, or TV viewers? Only reason I ask: Who actually cares about this game? Memphis should blow ULM outta the water.
Power 5 Blowouts: 34) Bowling Green vs Notre Dame - This game has the biggest spread for an FBS vs FBS game I've ever seen: ND is a 45.5 point favorite. Even worse, there's a high chance they cover. That how bad BGSU is, they won't have a shot.
33) Kent State vs Wisconsin - Noon, ESPNU: Kent State had a whole extra week to prepare to get destroyed. Johnathan Taylor will either dominate this defense, or get very few carries and sit most of the game. It could actually be both.
32) Georgia vs Tennessee - 7:00, ESPN: Tennessee couldn't even beat Georgia State at home, what makes you think they'll have a shot against Georgia?! Next!
31) Maryland vs Rutgers - Noon, Big Ten Network: Rutgers has already fired its head coach this year. That won't help all too much for a team that's overmatched every conference game. Maryland will recover from last week's beatdown and win.
30) Oklahoma vs Kansas - Noon, ABC: The only real reason to watch this is for Jalen Hurts's Heisman campaign. He will light up the Jayhawk D, and he will probably be sitting by the end of the 3rd quarter, at the absolute latest.
29) Illinois vs Minnesota - 3:30, Big Ten Network: One of these teams is undefeated, the other lost to Eastern Michigan. That should tell you who wins this. Minnesota hasn't won a game by more than a TD, but they'll win by a pretty wide margin here.
28) Utah State vs LSU - Noon, SEC Network: LSU hasn't stopped scoring since the season started, and they won't stop here. Utah State has racked up the yards on offense, about matching LSU, but can't score the same points. They need convert on RedZone drives to have a shot.
27) Troy vs Missouri - 4:00, SEC Network: Any game that Troy plays seems to evolve into a shootout. The lowest they've scored in a game is 35, and they scored 42 and 43 points in their 2 losses. Mizzou's D is their stiffest test yet though, so we'll see if the points will keep flowing.
Close Group of 5 Games 26) New Mexico vs San Jose State - 10:00 Fri., CBS Sports Network: New Mexico's offense will have to ground and pound it in order to win this one. SJSU has a solid pass D, but they can't stop the run. NM will also need to stop the pass, but I think they can steal a win.
25) Marshall vs Middle Tennessee - 3:30, Facebook: This is our first true look at MTSU this year. So far, they've only played Power 5 teams, or FCS teams. Their defense has looked very rocky, and if that continues, Marshall will run all over them.
24) Tulsa vs SMU - 7:30, ESPNU: SMU is ranked for the first time since the 80s, and have already beaten TCU this year. They don't have many tough games for awhile, so they may overlook some of them. If they overlook Tulsa, it could be very costly.
23) Tulane vs Army - Noon, CBS Sports Network: These team faced off in 2015 and 2017, and this game will be very similar to those. Very close, and a solid amount of points scored. Only difference? Tulane won those 2 games, Army will win here.
22) Western Michigan vs Toledo - 3:30, ESPN+: The Rockets have already picked up some nice wins this year, and here's a chance for another one. The Broncos can put up some points, and they have a solid defense. They'll have to make the most of every possession to win.
21) Ohio vs Buffalo - 3:30, ESPN+: These teams are close in nearly every statistical category, except for one. Ohio's Rush Defense isn't great, and Buffalo can run the ball. If the Bobcats can slow em down, they'll win. Otherwise, The Bulls win a close one.
Potentially close Power 5 Games: 20) Vanderbilt vs Mississippi - 7:30, SEC Network: Vandy was in a dogfight with Northern Illinois last week, and now they have another tough game here. Ole Miss knows how to score, and if they scored 31 vs Bama last week, they'll score easily here.
19) Purdue vs Penn State - Noon, ESPN: If the Boilermakers were at full health, they'd have a legitimate shot here. Instead, without their big playmaker and starting QB, they need a miracle. Penn State should win easily, but they may not cover.
18) North Carolina vs Georgia Tech - 4:00, ACC Network: With the way the Heels looked last week, they should win easily here. Only issue is it's really hard to have that kind of performance week-to-week. If they don't play like that, GT may have a slim chance.
17) Oregon State vs UCLA - 9:00, Pac-12 Network: If the Beavers win this one, we'll know UCLA is in serious trouble. Oregon State's offense has looked very solid so far, scoring at least 28 in every game. If they get past that mark, they'll win.
16) Virginia Tech vs Miami - 3:30, ESPN: The Hokies got demolished by Duke last week, and most expected a close game there. Now, they're a 2 touchdown underdog this week. The U didn't look great last time out, and if they have the same issues, it'll be very close.
15) Northwestern vs Nebraska - 4:00, Fox: Both of these teams struggled mightily last week, with Nebraska getting pounded at home and NW struggling on the road. If NW doesn't win this one, it won't look too great for bowl eligibility. Nebraska also needs a win, to show they aren't a joke.
14) California vs Oregon - 8:00, Fox: This game will be decided exclusively by the Cal defense. They didn't look great against Arizona State last week, and now have a tougher test in Justin Herbert. If they get quite a few 3rd down stops, they have a shot.
13) Boston College vs Louisville - 12:30, ACC Network: The points should be flowing here, and it should come down to the end. Both teams run the ball really well, and can chuck it when needed. It'll come down to a late FG to decide the winner.
12) Ohio State vs Michigan State - 8:00, ABC: Will Ohio State set a season-low for points and still win? There's actually a realistic chance of this. Their lowest total of the year so far is 42, and Sparty allows 15 a game. They'll win, but they may not cover.
Must-Watch Games: 11) Baylor vs Kansas State - 3:30, ESPN2: This could be one of the few defensive Big 12 games this year. Both teams have allowed 16 PPG this year, and can run the ball well. State lost a pretty important game last week, so they need this one bad.
10) Air Force vs Navy - 3:30, CBS Sports Network: Everyone loves a good triple-option battle. This game will be over within 3 hours, but there'll be plenty of drama. It will be close throughout, and it could possibly come down to some passing, ya never know.
9) Washington vs Stanford - 10:30, ESPN: If the Cardinal want a shot here, they'll have to ride their defense. Eason is a tough test for anyone, but some turnovers could lead to a close game. Stanford just needs to take advantage of said turnovers.
8) Pittsburgh vs Duke - 8:00, ACC Network: Pitt's game vs Delaware last week was only close since they rested their starters. Kenny Pickett and the rest of the offense will be ready for this battle. Duke crushed the Hokies last week, and we'll see if they have the same firepower here.
7) Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech - Noon, Fox Sports 1: Although they don't have the playmakers they had in years past, The Red Raiders should still have a shot here. If their D can make some stops and add some turnovers, they could win.
6) Texas vs West Virginia - 3:30, ABC: I'm not too impressed with Texas yet. They had a close game with Oklahoma State last time out, and now have this long road trip. Both teams are fresh off bye weeks, so they'll be rested and ready to score.
5) Arizona vs Colorado - 4:30, Pac-12 Network: This game could develop into a shootout, which is odd for Colorado. They're usually a defensive team, but they're putting up 36 points per game. Arizona is just as good on offense, so be ready for points.
4) TCU vs Iowa State - Noon, ESPN2: This game isn't the most important, but it will be very close. Both teams have solid defenses, and offenses that can score. Expect a 31-28 kind of game, and one that could realistically have OT.
3) UCF vs Cincinnati - 8:00 Fri., ESPN: This game hasn't been close the last few years, but it should change here. The Knights need to keep winning for a shot at a NY6 bowl, but Cincy has the home-field edge. It'll be closer than most years.
2) Iowa vs Michigan - Noon, Fox: If Iowa wants to be seen as a contender, here's the time to do it. They have this game, then they host Penn State. Michigan's D is very good, so Stanley will have a tough test, and may need a late drive to win.
1) Auburn vs Florida - 3:30, CBS: Is Auburn truly ready to contend for the Playoff? We'll learn if they are here. The Gators defense is tremendous, and I have faith in their backup QB. It'll be a slugfest that comes down to the wire.
MAC is going to get it done the way it's supposed to be done tonight, our NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY - (VMI +16 vs FURMAN -16)
| || | submitted by OpenVisionZ to SportsReport [link] [comments]
MAC is going to get it done the way it's supposed to be done tonight, our NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY - (VMI +16 vs FURMAN -16) will be another classic example of why they dub Roland MAC McGuillaman the most venerable betting source on the internet!
NFL EARLY INFO PLAY (FEB 02) - (SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +2 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2)
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What if Universities Gambled Endowment on Football? The Endowment Stakes Week 2
submitted by dasani3x to CFB [link] [comments]
The 2018 /CFB Endowment Stakes - Week 2 Note: This post is best enjoyed on a desktop with old Reddit: click here
Concept (Please Read): Each week, all FBS teams will gamble 50% of their remaining endowment against the money line odds. Teams do not bet against each other, but rather the /CFB Sports Book
Heavy favorites will be mildly rewarded for their wins, but upsets will propel universities up the rankings, bringing economic prosperity and opportunities to their students - that is until they lose the following week and wipe out half of their remaining endowment. How money line betting works:
If a team has negative odds, they are the favorite - Ex: Utah -220, must wager $220 to profit $100
If a team has positive odds, they are the underdog - Ex: LSU +350, must wager $100 to profit $350
Track the standings and each week's matchups in the Google Sheet
Week 2 Endowment Rankings All amounts are in $ Billions
Next Five In: Texas Texas ($1.87B), Maryland Maryland ($1.81B), Oklahoma Oklahoma ($1.71B), Washington Washington ($1.68B), Syracuse Syracuse ($1.56B)
|Rank ||△ ||School ||Endowment ||Growth ||Week 1 Profit ||Potential Profit |
|1 ||- ||Stanford Stanford ||32.94 ||32.81% ||5.88 ||Pending Odds |
|2 ||- ||Notre Dame Notre Dame ||18.33 ||55.37% ||1.17 ||1.53 |
|3 ||+3 ||Duke Duke ||12.13 ||77.27% ||4.66 ||11.88 |
|4 ||-1 ||Northwestern Northwestern ||7.72 ||-26.19% ||-7.72 ||.30 |
|5 ||+5 ||California California ||6.95 ||61.54% ||1.93 ||Pending Odds |
|6 ||+1 ||Vanderbilt Vanderbilt ||6.24 ||52.18% ||.73 ||14.82 |
|7 ||+8 ||Cincinnati Cincinnati ||5.72 ||390.83% ||1.85 ||Pending Odds |
|8 ||- ||Michigan Michigan ||5.47 ||-49.83% ||.02 ||.01 |
|9 ||+9 ||Minnesota Minnesota ||5.42 ||50.00% ||1.64 ||.44 |
|10 ||-6 ||Texas A&M Texas A&M ||4.90 ||-49.99% ||-4.90 ||.07 |
|11 ||+1 ||Penn State Penn State ||4.76 ||19.16% ||.68 ||.01 |
|12 ||-7 ||Virginia Virginia ||4.68 ||-45.76% ||-4.68 ||.97 |
|13 ||-2 ||Ohio State Ohio State ||4.27 ||0.34% ||0.01 ||.47 |
|14 ||+2 ||Illinois Illinois ||4.13 ||19.46% ||.47 ||5.99 |
|15 ||+26 ||Kentucky Kentucky ||4.11 ||221.41% ||2.75 ||Pending Odds |
|16 ||+1 ||Virginia Tech Virginia Tech ||3.66 ||221.41% ||2.75 ||Pending Odds |
|17 ||+2 ||Hawai'i Hawai'i ||3.31 ||1018.89% ||.17 ||3.73 |
|18 ||+7 ||Indiana Indiana ||2.77 ||39.29% ||.53 ||.25 |
|19 ||+1 ||Wisconsin Wisconsin ||2.75 ||0.25% ||.00 ||.09 |
|20 ||-11 ||USC USC ||2.58 ||-49.50% ||-2.58 ||1.91 |
|21 ||+1 ||Boston College Boston College ||2.53 ||5.30% ||.00 ||.53 |
|22 ||+23 ||Colorado Colorado ||2.11 ||98.33% ||.87 ||Pending Odds |
|23 ||-10 ||BYU BYU ||2.02 ||37.50% ||-2.02 ||10.11 |
|24 ||+10 ||Iowa Iowa ||2.02 ||45.49% ||.45 ||Pending Odds |
|25 ||-11 ||Pittsburgh Pittsburgh ||2.01 ||-49.09% ||-2.01 ||Pending Odds |
For all 130 Teams Ranked, please see Google Sheet
Through Week 2, the /CFB Sports Book is up $3.71 Billion This was a rough week for many universities across the country. The Sports Book profited over $11B, with fewer upsets meaning smaller payouts
Week 2 Results Duke #6 Duke storms into Evanston and takes down Northwestern #3 Northwestern. Duke is handsomely rewarded for their win with a $4.66B profit to enter the #3 spot. Fortunately for the Wildcats, their large endowment plus winnings from their Purdue matchup allows them to retain a spot in the top 5.
Penn State #12 Penn State and Pittsburgh #14 Pittsburgh have been close contenders all season, but Penn State pulled away in the battle of Pennsylvania to take home $680M and inch closer to the top 10. Penn State also gets the pleasure of sending their inner-state rival down to #25, due to Pitt's $2B loss.
Savannah State Savannah State traveled to take on Miami Miami, where they were shut down in one of the most lopsided games that will take place this season. This game is unique since the closing line for Miami was -999999, meaning they had to gamble a million dollars for every $100 in profit. The Hurricanes took home $23,725 from their nearly quarter billion dollar bet.
Clemson Clemson is going to struggle to gain much traction in the rankings this season. As heavy favorites in all their games, they will need to be perfect to grow their $651M endowment throughout the season. In a close affair with Texas A&M #4 Texas A&M (who risked a whopping $4.9B), Clemson hung on to earn $65M. Texas A&M stays in the top 10 even after their big financial loss
Liberty #23 Liberty is an interesting story. Despite being the youngest university in the FBS, they have been able to amass a $1.29B endowment. After a strong first week upset, Liberty found themselves in the top 25 and a matchup with Army Army. Unfortunately for Liberty, they fell and erased their Week 1 earnings via a $1.26B gamble gone wrong.
Hawai'i #17 Hawai'i continues to be the best investment of the year. The Rainbow Warriors have increased their endowment tenfold in their first three games, most recently in the defeat of Rice #21 Rice. Rice started the season at #8, but two losses have resulted in a $4B loss, and a quick trip out of the top 25.
Kentucky Kentucky unbelievably now find themselves in the top 25 after their shocking upset of Florida Florida. The Wildcats end the 31-year losing streak and take home a $2.75B profit of a modest $680M bet. Florida loses $800M and will have to upset some SEC foes to make their original endowment back.
Stanford #1 Stanford shut down USC #9 USC on Saturday night - at this point, The Cardinal has a lot of breathing room at the top. Barring a major, multi-billion dollar upset, Stanford can withstand not one, not two, not three, but four losses for a top 25 spot. USC lost $2.56B, but are still at the #20 spot.
Week 3 Big Bets SMU SMU has had a rough season so far, losing both games and 75% of their endowment. In Week 3, they travel to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan #8 Michigan and should they pull off the upset, they will earn a huge $24.6B profit. Meanwhile, Michigan stands to make just $10.13M
Ohio State #13 Ohio State, despite being 2-0, has managed to win just $20M, despite gambling over $2B each week. In Week 3, the Buckeyes travel to take on TCU TCU. Ohio State can earn its first meaningful winnings of nearly half a billion should they win, but the Horned Frogs can earn nearly $3 Billion should they take down Ohio State.
USC #20 USC travels to Austin to take on Texas Texas in a classic matchup. Will the Trojans right the ship and take $1.91B or will the Longhorns finally be back and climb back into the top 25 with a $576M win
Vanderbilt #6 Vanderbilt has climbed the ranks and is the leading SEC team when they travel to take on Notre Dame #2 Notre Dame. Every week we have been blessed with a top 10 matchup, and this week Vanderbilt hopes to take home $14.28B if they can upset Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish hope to cement themselves in the #2 spot after a sluggish performance against Ball State with a $1.53B win.
Auburn Auburn hosts LSU LSU Saturday afternoon - as mentioned, this experiment is most difficult for good teams with low endowments. This is an opportunity for both teams to take advantage of the closer money lines. LSU will crack the top 25 with a $2.11B win, while Auburn can earn a significant $114M payday at home.
Arizona State Arizona State shocked the Big Ten last week to jump 24 spots. Should they hold off San Diego State San Diego State, they will continue their climb with a $350M win. The Aztecs can also make a splash and right the ship with a $110M win.
Army Army opens up as favorites at home against Hawai'i Hawai'i, but don't sleep on the Rainbow Warriors! If Hawai'i can continue their streak of upsets, they will take over $3B with them on the 4,957 mile flight home. Army has a chance to continue their recovery from a week one loss with a $21M win.
Season Performance Stats
|Rank ||School ||Growth ||Current Endowment ||Starting Endowment |
|1 ||Hawai'i Hawai'i ||1018.89% ||$3.31B ||$296M |
|2 ||Cincinnati Cincinnati ||390.83% ||$5.72B ||$1.17B |
|3 ||Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan ||293.75% ||$264M ||$67M |
|4 ||Maryland Maryland ||234.82% ||$1.81B ||$542M |
|5 ||Kentucky Kentucky ||221.41% ||$4.11B ||$1.28B |
*18 Schools have lost 75% - UCLA, North Caorlina, Purdue, SMU, Arizona, Temple, South Alabama, Miami (Ohio), UConn, Western Michigan, UTEP, Old Dominion, UTSA, Bowling Green, San Jose State, Central Michigan, Western Kentucky, Northern Illinois
|Rank ||School ||Growth ||Current Endowment ||Starting Endowment |
|130 ||New Mexico State New Mexico State ||-87.50% ||$21M ||$168M |
|T-129 ||18 Schools* ||-75.00% ||Varies ||Varies |
|T-110 ||UMass UMass ||-74.22% ||$198M ||$768M |
|T-110 ||RiceRice ||-74.22% ||$1.37B ||$5.32B |
|109 ||Wyoming Wyoming ||-68.06% ||$159.72M ||$500M |
|Rank ||Conference ||Growth ||Current Endowment ||Starting Endowment |
|1 ||Mountain West Mountain West ||51.04% ||$4.80B ||$3.18B |
|2 ||FBS Independents FBS Independents ||39.84% ||$21.95B ||$15.70B |
|3 ||American American ||31.15% ||$10.06B ||$7.47B |
|4 ||Pac-12 Pac-12 ||9.84% ||$52.52B ||$47.81B |
|5 ||SEC SEC ||-2.49% ||$24.53B ||$25.16B |
|6 ||ACC ACC ||-7.82% ||$33.22B ||$36.04B |
|7 ||MAC MAC ||-7.85% ||$3.15B ||$3.42B |
|8 ||Big Ten Big Ten ||-12.87% ||$44.08B ||$50.59B |
|9 ||Big 12 Big 12 ||-21.02% ||$11.12B ||$14.08B |
|10 ||Sun Belt Sun Belt ||-42.29% ||$808.58M ||$1.40B |
|11 ||Conference USA Conference USA ||-62.72% ||$2.91B ||$7.82B |
Notes: I will be posting these storylines and information weekly at approximately 9 am on Tuesdays. If you want to help update the Google sheet with odds, please let me know. I am generally busy on Friday nights and have to update it on my phone, which isn't convenient.
If you have any suggestions or if I made any mistakes, please let me know! Once again, I have all 130 FBS teams with every single game throughout the season on a Google Sheet. Best of luck to whoever you are rooting for, I hope your donors came prepared to put their money where their mouths are!
Past Editions: Week 1 Week 0 Pre-Season
Before you comment on how eager you are to take your opponent's money, please remember that you are gambling against the house, not against each other
Track the standings and each week's matchups in the Google Sheet
Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame: Betting odds, preview and pick. New, 1 comment. when Notre Dame halted Oklahoma's 47-game winning streak with a 7-0 upset of the Sooners also in Norman. No. 16 Notre Dame can’t reach the College Football Playoff, but the Irish still are in very good shape for a New Year’s Six bowl game – unless they are upset at home by unranked Boston College on Saturday. Notre Dame opened as a 19-point favorite on the Mybookie NCAAF odds. How to Bet Boston College vs Notre Dame College Read More Compare Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Oklahoma Sooners matchups. Up to date offshore betting odds of over 30+ sportsbooks available including money lines, point spreads, totals and futures. SBRodds.com Odds released on the exact outcome of the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. The highest-paying odds on either outcome come from a Notre Dame-Oklahoma final. Clemson and Alabama, the other two semifinalists, have split the last three national championships The 2018 College Football Playoff field was announced at 12 p.m. ET on Sunday, Dec. 2, and sportsbooks posted betting odds shortly after. Alabama is a 14-point favorite over Oklahoma, while Clemson is -11.5 vs. Notre Dame.