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Best Way to Recover Money Lost in Casino

Go ahead and type “I lost all my money at the casino” on a random search engine. You will see hundreds of results – this is one of the common search phrases of all gamblers. We all play, we all win, but we also all lose: Lost money at casino is a situation that will happen to you too sooner or later.

Since we cannot escape from it, let’s try to look at this problem from different angles: Why did we lost a lot of money at casino? How can we cope with lost money at casino situation? And more importantly, how to get back money lost at casino, is it possible? In this article, you will find the answers to these questions and more.
Why You Lose Money at the Casino
Casinos can be a great pastime. They have something for everyone. If the thrill of spinning slots isn’t your thing, maybe you’d prefer doubling down at the blackjack table. When you win, it feels awesome; that’s the appeal that brings people to the casinos in the first place.
While it’s fun to win, we all have our losing streaks. Sometimes we lose a lot. I once lost $100 in 10 minutes at a video poker machine. We’ve all heard of the house edge, but is it possible to increase your own edge? We’re about to shed some light on the situation. With a little luck, you’ll be able to turn your fortune around. Here’s why you lose money at the casino.
Your Bankroll Management Isn’t What It Should Be: Managing your bankroll is the most important thing you can do at the casino. We all want to bet big on the games. After all, the bigger the bet, the bigger the win. The problem is you can’t guarantee a win every time. You can’t even guarantee a win every dozen games. If you have a bankroll of $60 and lose three $20 bets, you just blew through your whole budget in two minutes.
Take into consideration how long you want to play. If you’ve got a bankroll of $60, why not split it into smaller bets of $1 per hand? At least this way, you’ll get to play 60 rounds and stand a stronger chance of winning. The rewards may be smaller, but you’ll get a lot more entertainment playing two hours than two minutes.
You’re Playing the Wrong Games: This may seem like a silly thing to say, but you might be playing the wrong games. If you’re losing every time, you might want to try something new.
When you’re selecting a casino game, it’s important to consider the house edge. In general, finding a game with a lower house edge gives you better chance of winning. If you’re used to luck-based games like slots or roulette, you might want to try skill-based games like blackjack or video poker.
In fact, video poker is a really good choice for machine players. Slot machines can vary in regard to house edge, ranging between a low of 5% and a high of 30%. With Jacks or Better video poker, you will recover 99.54% of your money throughout your lifetime. Add in a lifetime of comped drinks, and you’ve made out like a bandit.
You’re Using a Failing Strategy: Many people search for casino game strategies. You’ve probably done it yourself at one time or another. The problem with a lot of strategies is that you either have to be an expert player with a spreadsheet of numbers in your head, or you need a massive bankroll.
Don’t fall into the mindset of thinking, “Well, if I use this system, it’s bound to work in the end.” We do not recommend counting cards or increasing your bet after every loss. Unless you’re a billionaire with a near-unlimited bankroll, those are losing strategies. Unless you have unlimited money, you cannot beat the house, period.
Casinos know these strategies don’t work. You can almost see the curt smile on the dealer’s face as you double your bet again and again. Instead of using a strategy like this, manage your bankroll in the ways noted earlier. Be smart about it.
You’re Trying Too Hard to Regain Losses: While there are some skill-based games, casinos are all about luck. You’re going to suffer losses along the way. Even professional gamblers cannot guarantee they’ll always win, because gambling relies on a certain amount of luck. Don’t let a loss or a losing streak get to you.
It’s common for players to suffer a loss and then start throwing out higher bets without thinking. You need to remain logical and, again, manage your bankroll effectively. Casino gaming should be fun. If you get angry or stressed, it’s time to stop. Don’t throw away everything you have left in an attempt to get even. It’s not going to work. Never has, never will.
Cope With Gambling and Casino Loss
Coping with gambling loss can be challenging, especially if you are a beginner. Believe it or not, this can be as hard as grieving for the loss of a relative. In order to cope with your gambling losses, you must first accept that losing is perfectly normal while gambling. Everybody loses, even professional players. So accepting that losing money gambling is not the end of the world is important: This happens to every player out there. But if this is especially hard for you and you feel an urge to keep gambling, you may have an addiction problem. In this case:
Stop gambling immediately. There is no such thing as “less gambling” for addicts. You must stop gambling, period. Take advantage of the responsible gaming practices of online casinos. You can put self-exclusions on your account and limit your budget, game time, and even the game categories you can play. Use these tools to limit yourself.
Do not try to cover your losses by playing more games. We said “stop gambling” for a reason. The majority of addicts keep gambling because they think that “playing one more game will cover all of their losses”. This is wrong and a dangerous approach. If you continue to gamble, you may lose more: There is no guarantee that you will win this time. And continuing the same habit will just make the problem bigger.
Face the consequences. Losing money at gambling will have lots of consequences, especially if you surpassed your budget. Your stress levels will increase and you will have problems in relations with your loved ones. Almost 99% of addicts try to hide their losses but this will just make everything worse. Talk to your loved ones, make sure they know about the situation, and face the consequences. Yes, it will be hard but it is mandatory: Recognizing your problem and sharing it with your loved ones is the first (and most important) step of coping with gambling losses.
Get professional help if needed. No matter where you live, you can find an organization that is ready to help you with your problem. It can be Gamblers Anonymous, Gam Care, or Problem Gambling CA – there are professionals out there who are ready to help you, free of charge. Join one of these programs and don’t hesitate to ask for help.
Once again, the suggestions above apply to addicts – not casual gamblers. If you are fine with the fact that losing is a part of gambling and there is no way to avoid it, there is no problem: As long as you respect your budget and control yourself, gambling can be a fun hobby.
Will A Casino Give Your Money Back?
And now, let’s continue with the obvious question: How to recover lost money from casino? Is this possible? Can you still take something back for lost money at casino?
The short answer is no. And you already know this: No casino (or online casino) will refund your money just because you lost. Remember that these are called “games of chance” for a reason. The operators do not guarantee any winnings and you cannot take your losses back. Do you go to the betting booth after losing a sports bet and ask for your money back? It is the same principle: Lost money online casino (or land-based casino) won’t be refunded, period.
There is only one scenario in which the answer to how to recover lost money in casino question is yes: Fraud. If your account is hacked and a third party used your balance to play games, then yes, the casino may choose to refund your losses. However:
This is not mandatory. The casino may not choose to refund your losses even if you can prove that your account is hacked. Proving a hack is harder than you think. The majority of players who lost try to use this excuse, and we do not know even a single case where the casino accepted a hack really happened.
Hire a Funds Recovery Expert: Best Way to Recover Lost Money At Casino
You may be tempted to use a chargeback. But you know how chargeback option works: If you used a credit card to pay for something, you can always put a chargeback order and get your money back – as long as you did not receive the goods. In this case, the refund is done by the bank itself, not the merchant. So, is this a way to recover lost money at casino?
Simply put, no. Chargeback feature is useful, but only if you did not receive something for the payment you made. When such a claim is issued, the payment provider asks the merchant to send the proof of delivery. If you purchase a PC, for example, and the seller cannot prove that the delivery is made, sure, you can get your money back. Only a funds recovery expert will be able to help you recover money lost in casino.
Only a Funds Recovery Expert Can Help You Recover Your Money
The same thing goes for e-wallet payments too. They are even pickier than the banks, and we do not know of a single case where the e-wallet provider accepted the chargeback claim for gambling losses.
Overall, the best method that works everytime is hiring a Funds Recovery Expert, and the funds recovery expert we have personally used and recommend is - [email protected]. The answer to how to recover lost money in casino question is still “you can’t”. Use the chargeback bonus if you want constant refunds – that’s the only thing you can do. So send your request via email to - [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
submitted by pattinsonrobert to u/pattinsonrobert [link] [comments]

Casino Joy 200 free spins bonus on registration! (Promo codes)

Casino Joy 200 free spins bonus on registration! (Promo codes)

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The Diamond Casino & Resort: Los Santos - Grand Opening Megathread

GTA Online's brand new Diamond Casino & Resort will be available July 23rd.

News & Information Directly from Rockstar

- GTA Online: The Diamond Casino & Resort (Trailer)

- The Diamond Casino & Resort Grand Opening - July 23rd (Newswire)

[Casino Trailer]
Experience Excellence. The Diamond Casino & Resort opens for your enjoyment in the heart of Los Santos this Tuesday, July 23rd.

Opening Soon

[Casino Image]
The massive construction project on the corner of Vinewood Park Drive and Mirror Park Boulevard is nearing completion, radically changing the skyline of Los Santos forever. When the brand-new Diamond Casino & Resort opens its doors, one and all are welcome inside to play, or just to stay in the most luxurious residence in the entire state. More than just a place to let go of your inhibitions and your sense of the passage of time, The Diamond is the one-stop destination for quality entertainment, high-end living and a range of experiences you won’t find anywhere else.

The Casino

[Roulette Table Image]
If you're looking to dive into the action, the casino floor has a selection of activities to enjoy. Play against the house using Chips in Three Card Poker, Blackjack and Roulette. Slot Machines with a variety of prizes are also at your fingertips, while Inside Track offers a lounge to watch and cheer along with friends as the drama of virtual horse racing unfolds. Spin the Lucky Wheel in the lobby for chips, cash, and clothing or even the new Truffade Thrax supercar that can be found whirling on the podium during opening week. And be sure to check back each week to see what new high-end vehicle can be won. Check Rockstar Support for details and limitations.
Guests looking to push the limits of high-end resort fashion can also choose from the carefully curated rotation of new clothing and accessories in the Casino Store.

The Penthouse

[Penthouse Image]
Sitting atop The Diamond is an oasis of luxury for those shopping for a lavish pied-à-terre or just a feature-laden property in which to entertain friends. The Master Penthouse that sits beside the Roof Terrace with infinity pool and stunning views entitles the owner to VIP Membership status including access to VIP Lounges, High-Limit tables, plus a range of special services via the Penthouse phone including aircraft and limousine services and more. Renovate your residence with several upgradeable floorplans including a private Spa with a round-the-clock personal stylist, a Bar and Party area perfect for hosting raging Member Parties and featuring private retro arcade games, and a Media Room to enjoy games of Don’t Cross the Line and contemporary Vinewood cinema like Meltdown and The Loneliest Robot In Great Britain. As an owner, you can select the Penthouse’s color palette and patterns, and cement a place among the LS nouveau riche with a range of modern art from the Casino Store – from refined portraiture to pop art and daring modern sculpture – that can all be moved and placed around your property.
With a Master Penthouse you’ll also become a member of The Diamond family, and the family business needs your attention. Help property owner Tao Cheng and The Diamond staff protect their investment from the clutches of a corrupt family of Texan petrochemical magnates in a series of all new co-operative missions. Each mission pays out special Awards for first-time completion and hosting the entire story thread will reward you with a highly coveted, brand-new vehicle free of charge. You can also pickup additional work and odd jobs to earn extra cash and chips with a quick phone call to the Diamond’s head of operations, Agatha Baker.

Twitch Prime

[Another Penthouse(?) Image]
As part of the Rockstar Games Social Club x Twitch Prime Benefits program, all GTA Online players who link their Social Club account with Twitch Prime and claim their Twitch Prime benefits by the end of day on July 19th will be able to purchase the Master Penthouse for free in the Diamond Casino & Resort, as well as receive GTA$1.25M and up to 15% extra GTA$ on purchases of Shark Cash Cards.
Visit Twitch Prime and sign up to receive these perks and more coming soon, and visit the Social Club Events page to keep up with all special events, bonuses, and more in GTA Online.

Stay Tuned

[New Supercar Image, presumably the Truffade Thrax]
Visit to see more details on what The Diamond has to offer, including Penthouse comforts, membership perks, and so much more.
We're also extending last week's bonuses through July 24th, so make the most of your time on the Stunt track – or contract as a Bodyguard/Associate on lucrative Business Battles, VIP Work, Sell Missions and more – and we'll see you at the grand opening.

Check out this website. Seriously. It's a real website and it will give you a fantastic "in-character" look at what the update will bring. This website is better designed and more attractive than some real businesses' websites, believe me.


[Imgur Mirror]
Experience Excellence

A Luxury Casino & Resort In The Heart Of Vinewood

You've heard the rumors. You want to believe them, and there's only one way to find out. Abandon your preconceptions. Let go of your inhibitions, your doubts, your sense of proportion, your credit rating. The rumors didn't begin to do it justice. Welcome to The Diamond. Grand Opening July 23.


[Imgur Mirror]

Casino and Resort Membership

The Diamond is everyone’s playground. Invest in a Standard Membership today and you’ll be a lifelong partner in our project to meaningfully raise the standard of living for the one percent.

VIP Membership

At The Diamond, there are members, and there are members. And if you want to be the latter, you’re only a penthouse key away from enjoying the kind of status that only systemic elitism can provide.
Experience Preeminence

Parking Garage

This is not merely a garage. It’s not merely a maximum security, subterranean storage unit. Think of it as an air-conditioned, custom-built, expertly curated museum, where our clients can admire each other’s collections in peace and comfort.
Experience Accidents


Step out of our front door, right into your front seat: our valets are available 24/7, and are trained to never to look in the trunk, never to open the glove compartment, and never to ask questions.
Experience Incontinence

Champagne Service

Our client code of conduct states that if any member is seen ordering a bottle of our finest champagne, spraying half of it over the most exclusive clientele in the state, and downing the rest straight from the bottle, our security teams are obliged to loudly applaud.
Experience Turbulence

Aircraft Concierge

Going up? Let our concierge service take care of all your pre-flight checks, so you can step right into the cockpit with the engine ready for takeoff.
Experience Maintenance

Cleaning Service

We recruit our housekeepers from the most respected crime scene cleanup teams in the state. There is no bodily fluid or potentially infectious material they can’t remove in the time it takes you to find an alibi.
Experience Convenience

Limousine Service

Leaving The Diamond can be a traumatic experience, but we know how to cushion the blow. Our resident guests can order a Diamond Limousine to take them almost anywhere in the state, free of charge.
Experience Irrelevance

Members Party

Why go to the party, when the party can come to you? If you’re one of our resident members, you only need to click your fingers and we’ll provide the drinks, the music, and the dozens of close personal friends.
Experience Flatulence

VIP Lounge

Available exclusively to our resident members, this is the inner sanctum of indulgence, the apex of affluence, the pinnacle of privilege, the high point of high society.
Experience Arrogance

High Limit Tables

Welcome to the grown-up table: resident guests are entitled to play in our high-limit suites.

The Penthouses

[Imgur Mirror]
Experience Residence

The Penthouses

A penthouse at The Diamond is not just a palace. It’s your palace. If you want a private spa, you can have it. Home cinema? Consider it done. Your own personal bar, private arcade cabinets, and office space? Just say the word: Diamond.
Experience Prominence

Master Bedroom

Silk sheets, fresh air bottled on the summit of Mount Chiliad, and round the clock access to the greatest roof terrace in Los Santos.
Experience Adolescence

Spare Bedroom

We all have that one friend. With a spare bedroom, they’ll have somewhere to crash that isn’t your bidet, and with access to their personal wardrobe they won’t have to keep borrowing your clothes.
Experience Fragrance

Spa Room

Your private spa comes with a round-the-clock personal stylist and a hot tub infused with extract of jojoba and a dissociative anesthetic.
Experience Interpretive Dance

Bar & Party Area

Why go to a night club, when a night club can come to you? The most exclusive venue in town is the one where you’re in charge of the guest list.
Experience Incompetence

Arcade Games

Time to dig out the high-waisted jeans and the fluorescent headband: Diamond Casinos have the exclusive rights to classic arcade games Invade and Persuade II and Street Crime: Gang Wars Edition.
Experience Correspondence


Sometimes you need to take care of your affairs, but there’s no reason you should have to leave the lap of luxury to do it. All of our offices come with a gun locker and a hidden safe as standard.

The Casino

[Imgur Mirror]
Experience Affluence

The Casino

Here, your dreams are reality, and your reality is a dream. Here, every whim can be satisfied, every fantasy fulfilled – no impulse control, no windows, no clocks, and no clearly labelled exits. Welcome to the Diamond standard.
Experience Eminence

Table Games

Don't be fooled. Roulette, blackjack, poker - at The Diamond, these aren't games. Every card dealt, every spin of the wheel, every polished quip, every gasp of the crowd, every delusion of grandeur: this is art.
Experience Overconfidence

Slot Machines

Here at The Diamond, we understand the fine art of the slot machine. We recognize the split-second reflexes, the years of research and training, the rock-solid intuition and the towering IQ that make a true master. That’s right. We’ve been waiting for you.
Experience Subservience

Inside Track

Horse racing is the sport of kings, and Inside Track is the only way to experience it – the drama, the majesty, the excitement, the perfectly simulated aroma of freshly cut turf and hot manure - all without leaving the comfort of a bespoke, air-conditioned suite.
Experience Tumescence

Lucky Wheel

Some people say that fortune favors the brave. Here at The Diamond, we’d rather say that destiny favors those with a full membership. Spin the wheel once a day, and you’re guaranteed a massive dose of self-importance every time.

Casino Store

[Imgur Mirror]
Experience Incontinence

Casino Store

Exclusive fashion. Unique designer artwork. There are some things in life that money can’t buy. But don’t fret. Our in-house store offers a rotating selection of tastefully curated items that can be purchased with Chips.



  • The newly renovated casino is located at the racetrack in east Vinewood Hills, by the highway. It is owned by Tao Cheng.
  • Brucie is making a return as a character in this update
  • In the casino you can play a number of games, including:
    • Three Card Poker
    • Blackjack
    • Roulette
    • Slot Machines
    • Retro Arcade Games (?)
  • There is a wheel you can spin once per day in order to earn prizes like RP, GTA$, discounts, clothing, and even high-end vehicles.
  • There is a horse-racing and betting component, although it is unclear if it is only simulated and interacted with via the "Inside Track" room of the casino, or if the horse racing actually takes place in the game world, instanced or not.
  • The casino has a penthouse/residential component to it. Owners of the Master Penthouse can upgrade their residence with a private spa, a bar and party area, and a media room. Residents will also be able to spend chips on art and collectibles at the Casino Store which can be used to decorate the penthouse.
  • As a penthouse resident, you will get access to the business aspect of the casino, requiring you to work with Cheng to prevent a rich Texan family from taking over the casino. In addition to this storyline, you can do side jobs for the casino to earn GTA$ and chips.
  • The casino has a store that accepts chips as payment. You can use the chips to buy collectibles and decorations for your penthouse as well as clothing and accessories.

If you think I should add something to the summary, please let me know in the comments.

Also, if there is any other detailed information I can include elsewhere, I'd love to hear it. Particularly in analyzing the videos and screenshots and identifying new cars, etc.

submitted by OcelotWolf to gtaonline [link] [comments]

[V7E10 Spoilers] Volume 7 Episode 10 Review

And so we come to the final four! Today's episode marks the final month of Volume 7, and like every Volume before it, this year is only ramping up the intensity. We're going to follow the episode's example and race towards the excitement in today's review!

Episode 10: Out in the Open

Instead of opening on a visual, the episode engages us with sound first. We hear the chaos of Mantle before we can see it. The opening thrums of a cello immediately put us on edge and set the tone for the following sequence. The wide shot that follows encapsulates a dozen different scenes of danger and despair. Unlike the attacks at Argus or way back at the Breach, this episode spends a good long while showing us the terror of a Grimm attack from the perspective of Remnant's ordinary citizens.
Our view focuses on a single street where a few Atlas soldiers actually manage to slay some Beowolfs and allow a few innocents to retreat. However the situation is fleeting, and as the Grimm pour in from the side streets behind them, the soldiers all eventually fall. The battle in the air is equally chaotic. Squadrons of Mantas unleash their missiles at airborne Grimm, even as a few members of the flight are engulfed in flame. I regret using the term "hellscape" so much in my reviews these past months, because only now does it seem to truly apply.
The camera brushes past the oncoming Grimm and assumes an "over-the-shoulder" position behind a crowd of scared civilians before finally cutting on a shot of the Megoliaths pouring through the hole in the outer wall. This long take is easily my favorite single cut in the entire show. We go from a wide establishing shot to a turbulent and hectic display of heroics before assuming the POV of the very citizens our heroes are fighting to protect. We've seen the Grimm attack settlements, and several in the community even commented on the Grimm's perceived impotence, but this episode's opening establishes quickly and clearly that the Grimm are to be underestimated at one's own grave peril.
Our heroes enter the scene just as a lone Sabyr descends on a Faunus family. Nora enters like an action hero, and the Grimm is quickly slain, but the gang's smiles are quick to fade; all victories are fleeting tonight. Elsewhere, Blake lures a Megoliath and several smaller Grimm into position, dodging lunges with several different dust-fueled shadow clones. Blake leads the Grimm right into Elm, who proceeds to YEET THE MAMMOTH 30FT IN THE AIR HOLY SHIT. A few timed charges from Yang seal the deal, but every team is already breathing heavy. Speaking from experience, nothing tires you out as quickly or thoroughly as sustained combat. Yang voices her concern that the Mantle shelters won't be large enough to protect all the civilians, reminding everyone of the larger battle being fought.
Clover and Qrow coordinate the fight from a rooftop, but a sudden call from Ironwood redirects the two Huntsmen to parts unknown. Without further elaboration, the two veterans leave their post. At the outer wall, civilians are running out of escape routes. Several are literally backed against a wall, and as Nora turns to assess the situation, both she and the viewers are treated to a panning shot of the rest of Mantle's districts turning red. This camera angle expertly puts us in the shoes of Nora and the other Hunters, making the accusations that follow hit even harder. The civilians start to panic, and Nora tries to allay their concerns, but there's just too many worried citizens. Just as the crowd seems on the verge of rioting, Robyn appears across the city's countless screens.
Collected and sympathetic, Robyn heralds the start of Ironwood's groundbreaking message, confirming it's validity with her Semblance. As Ironwood starts to speak, the din of battle falls away, giving the General's words room to echo. Ironwood quickly names Salem as the Grimm's ultimate master, and highlights her goal of dividing and demoralizing humanity. Robyn cuts in to name Watts and Tyrion as the perpetrators of Mantle's murder spree and the heating grid's failure. Ironwood starts to build up steam again, bolstering the population and calling for everyone to unite and fight back together. The General's normally stoic facade starts to break as he grows more emotional and empowered. For all his lack of pomp, Ironwood is not without passion.
The General confesses to diverting supplies to the Amity Project, and announces the new CCT is ready to launch. Finally, Ironwood tells the frightened masses that his air fleet will be diverting from Amity to evacuate everyone to Atlas. Nora turns to see the once scared crowd cheering, and finally the episode's tone seems to change.
Plenty of characters get smaller moments during Ironwood's speech. Ren gets to use his new grappling cables to deliver some Death from AboveTM while Jaune manages to just shove an entire charging Sabyr against a wall. Blonde boy is stronk. Vine uses his Semblance to part an oncoming tide of Grimm against the sides of a street, and Jaune even gets a small leadership moment. Using his kid-shepherding skills from primary school, Jaune tames the panicked adults and reassures the scared kids into an orderly evacuation.
Elsewhere in the city, our villains have their own reactions to Ironwood's speech. Neo and Cinder sit stunned in their hotel room as Watts and Tyrian are named, while Watts himself can't understand how Ironwood hid Amity from him. Josh Grelle takes the cake for his performance, however, as Tyrian screeches with sudden anger, unable to comprehend how the Grimm unified Salem's enemies. Watts once again proves his plotting skills, and quickly adjusts to the change in circumstances. Seeing a weakness, Watts tells Tyrian that "our tin soldier's heart has cost him his mind," and asks him to distract Atlas forces in Mantle for as long as possible. As Robyn reassures the civilians in sector 17 that she'll personally assist them, Tyrian sees his own chance to exploit the heroes.
Back in the Hotel Room, Cinder's nearly as angry as Tyrian. Cinder says she "can't believe those idiots beat us here," that "Vacuo was the next target," and that Salem's "timeline has changed." Now looking worried, Cinder confirms that Neo saw Oscar holding the lamp, then sends her to retrieve it. Neo protests by way of adopting Ruby's image, but Cinder only reacts by getting angrier. "We get what I need first! Then we get what we want!" Neo pouts, but Cinder just smiles, telling Neo that Ironwood's predictability is going to lead them right to the Winter Maiden.
There's a lot of subtext in this scene, which helps us understand the duo's objectives. Cinder knows securing the Relic will ingratiate her to Salem, and so she sends Neo to accomplish this first. Meanwhile, Cinder has her own goal of accumulating the Maiden mantles. Finally, when she's finished her other tasks, Cinder will pursue her grudge with Ruby. However, things aren't so simple for Neo. Cinder's behavior demonstrates repeated hints of the arrogance that has characterized her since Volume 2. Her failure at Haven has made her cautious, but she still responds to disobedience and non-compliance with anger, and she still considers Watts and Tyrion, who have until recently been single-handedly toppling a government, to be idiots. Cinder still classifies everyone around her as either incompetent pawns, pathetic weaklings, or enemies to defeat. Her casual assuredness as she takes Neo's Scroll shows how little Cinder values the opinions of others.
Neo is understandably shocked and angry. Neo's own motivations don't extend past revenge, and Cinder may be the best vehicle available for that revenge, but Cinder's own behavior shows that there is no love lost between them. Other gestures like rolled eyes, rocked hips, and the quick, unprepared catching of a thrown Scroll show that Cinder still only barely respects her own ally. Given this rift, I doubt Neo has given up on her own revenge against Cinder. She just may have to wait a little longer for it.
Back in Mantle, the evacuation is in full effect. As citizens are loaded, we hear a deep rumble and see a streak of green light fly across the sky. At another landing site, we hear a second boom, followed by a delayed streak of flying green light. Just as Ruby and Harriet are bringing their own group of citizens to their LZ, we finally see the source of the noise. Standing between them and safety is an elder megoliath, bristling in rage. The build up to this Grimm's reveal is handled superbly well. Like earlier in the episode, we hear the Grimm before we see it. We also get enough clues to start asking questions, but the answers come quickly enough so as to not slow the episode's pacing down. By the time the giant Grimm is revealed, we already know that our heroes are about to fight a mini-boss of sorts, and that Penny will be key in taking it down.
The fight begins and Penny and Harriet quickly engage. Ruby stays back, closes her eyes, and begins to meditate like she learned in Volume 6. A leitmotif of Indomitable clues us in that she's trying to draw on her Silver Eyes. Unfortunately, the distractions of the larger conflict make focusing not practical, and Ruby starts to fight conventionally. In a rather gutsy move, Penny tries to grapple with the titanic Grimm. However, the elder megoliath is no Bullhorn, and Penny is flung away by her own strings. Ruby rushes to help, but Penny's cheery response tells us there's nothing to worry about. When the two reengage, it's with a plan in mind.
Harriet tries to stall the Grimm, but she's a lightweight in a heavyweight fight. Penny squares off and pins the goliath down with a beam attack, all while subtly super-heating a section of the Grimm's tusk. Suddenly, Ruby swoops in, severs the heated tusk, and with Penny's help, trips the gigantic Grimm onto it's own spear. The entire sequence happens fast, but the double-impact of the Grimm's final fall sells both the physical and narrative weight of the impact. Fun fact, lots of martial art movies use the same technique, showing the same hit twice, to give viewers more time to process the blow and thus equate it with more importance.
With the mammoth defeated, the cowering citizens are quick to cheer for Penny, restoring her reputation as the "Protector of Mantle." Penny signals Robyn that their evacuation site is clear, and the show once again uses radio transitions to transition between scenes. Robyn is finishing her own duties, and sends her Huntresses away while she searches for stragglers. Her isolation reminds us of Tyrian, and we trope-savvy viewers think we know what's coming when Tyrian emerges from the shadows. Tyrian thinks that he's cornered Robyn into one of the 1v1 fights he's so good at, and chooses to gloat a little to Robyn. His showboating gives Clover and Qrow enough time to spring their trap, beginning the reveal of the episode's twist.
Amidst Mantle's chaos, a single Manta slips away to Amity Colosseum. In contrast the overbearing cacophony of Mantle, Watts walks through the unfinished corridors of the stadium in silence. He's slightly hunched, looks almost underwhelming, and has only the howl of the wind and the hollow echos of his own footsteps to accompany him. He reaches the main arena, and remarks that the actual communications tower looks far from finished. Suddenly, security shutters spring to life, trapping Watts in the center ring. It takes a comparatively long time for them all to close, however, which gives the viewers more time to appreciate the build up to Ironwood's entrance. Once again, we hear Ironwood before we see him, though when the General does appear, he's grinning like the cat who caught the canary, and his bombastic theme music is swelling to life behind him.
Finally, Watts recognizes Ironwood's trap, and turns to face the General as he enters the ring. However, Watts is far from frightened, and uses his rings to interface with Amity's network, activating the ring's biome system. Ironwood tries to outright shoot Watts, but the hacker blocks the bullet on a small hardlight buckler. Just as the General becomes the fourth member of the "Use Adult Words" club, the biome roulette wheels stop spinning. In the episode's final shot, the Tetris-shaped platforms of the Gravity Dust biome rise from the stadium's innards. Watts draws his own weapon, a rather archaic looking revolver, and confidently tells Ironwood that he won't go down without a fight.


This week's RWBY content is a transitional episode brilliantly disguised as a combat episode. Salem's secret is out, the Grimm are being fought directly in Mantle, civilian evacuations are underway, and most importantly, all of the major "duels" are now set up and ready to start. By taking the time to tie up some of the smaller plot threads, the combat heavy end of this Volume can dedicate it's focus to the smaller, more plot-critical fights that RWBY is famous for. That's not to say everything's resolved; we still have three episodes left. There were three episodes between Penny's death and the Volume 3 finale, and many important story beats still happened in that time. Without knowing what lies ahead, I would instead say that Volume 7 has reached it's climax. All the factions (save Cinder) are known, and everyone is on a collision course with each other. Next week's fights will start determining which side claims victory for the whole volume.
If the last episode was the heroes finding their footing, this week shows them throwing their first punch. They've taken direct action before, but now their conflicts are coming into the open. This episode was great on my first viewing, but it wasn't until my second watchthrough that I fully appreciated the ingenuity of Ironwood's plan. First, the General played to his strengths as the defender. He generally knows what the villains are after, but they could use their secrecy to approach their objectives from any angle. To successfully flush Watts and Tyrian out of hiding, Ironwood needs to give them clear paths to their goals without making the opportunities so obvious that the villains will suspect a trap. To do this, he plays on their own expectations, while at the same time showing how far he's come as a character. He also knows they work well together, and wisely separated his bait so as to isolate each villain before crushing them with overwhelming force. This is how you show Ironwood is a tactically competent general.
Ironwood's most consistent character trait has always been his dedication to those he protects. He took direct approaches to problems, making hard choices regardless of the consequences. It's what caused him to bring his fleet to Beacon in Volume 2, and why he spends the time after Beacon edging closer to authoritarian rule. That is the Ironwood that the world has always seen, and after Ironwood's change in Volume 7, it's a view that's now outdated. Ironwood has learned to trust in others, to share his load and rely on his friends to help him. Now that he doesn't have to do everything alone, he can trust others to do their part in stopping Salem. He trusts the citizens to resist Salem's influence, he trusts that Robyn, Qrow, and Clover can handle Tyrian, and he trusts that he can dedicate his full attention to kicking Watts' smug ass. I'll expand on this in the predictions section, but tying Ironwood's impressive deception into the Volume's main theme makes the payoff even more satisfying.
Similarly satisfying is Ironwood's speech to the kingdom. Ever since he announced his plan at the beginning of the Volume, I knew the reveal was going to be significant, but I really enjoyed how Ironwood presented his case. He outlined Salem in broad strokes, but he didn't try to hide information. He emphasized unity and coopeation, and as he did so his own professional demeanor gave way to a barely contained battle cry. Ironwood does care deeply about his people, and that is the side of James Ironwood that the Kingdom got to see.
Finally, I have to say a word about the cinematography and filmcraft in this episode. The CRWBY really pulled out all the stops, from subtle musical cues and using sounds to foreshadow, to the truly astounding camera work throughout this entire episode. What started as a humble passion project on a shoestring budget now demands both your attention and respect. The professional care and attention to detail is on full display, and I am fully confident that if nothing else, the final three episodes of Volume 7 will be similarly well-made. Everyone on the production team, from voice actors and animators to rigging artists, writers, and storyboarders deserve a round of applause.


This Episode contains a lot of obvious clues and a few subtle hints at what may be coming, so I'm going to approach more certain topics first and tackle my more wild theories at the end.
Obviously we've got a few fights coming next week. First and foremost is Clover, Qrow, and Robyn vs. Tyrian. This fight has been partially foreshadowed by the opening since V7E1, and every pro Hunter present has a good mix of ranged and melee options. The fight itself will be in an alleyway, which is both visually distinct from Amity and focuses on a simplified, more confined style of back-and-forth combat. Of course, all bets are off if Tyrian turns tail and runs or if the fight spills out onto the rooftops of Mantle. First impressions tell me that Tyrian is about to have a bad time. His Semblance largely negates the numerical advantage the heroes enjoy if he can quickly eliminate a few combatants, but the combination of both Clover's good luck "buff" and Qrow's bad luck "debuff" tip the odds heavily against Tyrian. I've talked in previous reviews about how I don't think Clover is a traitor, so I don't think he'll turn on Qrow and make this a 2v2, but his absence in the opening could indicate he'll be the first fighter disabled by Tyrian. Either way, while I think Tyrian can put up a good fight, I think it's more likely he'll try to flee. He's too outnumbered to be able to cleanly kill all three Hunters.
The fight between Ironwood and Watts is the last fight I'm absolutely certain about. I think the biggest clues about this fight come from the weapons both men are carrying. In a world of fantastic gun-scythes and combo polearm-trident-railguns, Ironwood and Watts are having an old fashion gunslinger's duel. For Watts, his antiquated choice of weapon actually makes a lot of sense. A man who spends his days manipulating technology would want the most reliable, tamper-proof firearm he could get. Ironwood has always carried "Due Process" like the arbiter of order that he is. Like the knight errant or the classic western hero, Ironwood is a champion for his beliefs, and beliefs are what matters in the fight to come.
It's no coincidence that Watts and Ironwood are butting heads. Ironwood's entire arc this Volume has been about the trust necessary to spread the truth, and Watts is the physical embodiment of the lies Ironwood has had to overcome. There battle is a physical struggle, yes, but it is also the ideological battle of opposite beliefs. Can the truth outshine any obstacle, or is truth just what the victor decides it is? That's the real battle being fought here. Between the ultimate thematic conflict of the volume and the promise of a brightly lit fight between two master Huntsmen, this fight is what I'm most excited for in the coming weeks.
Next we have Neo and Oscar's conflict. In terms of a fight, I think the two are fairly comparable. Neo is an expert in stealth and subterfuge, and is a highly experienced fighter. Oscar doesn't suspect an attack, but he has been growing closer and closer to fully melding with Ozpin, potentially granting him more fighting experience than anyone else on Remnant. Additionally, Oscar's Semblance was foreshadowed in the mid-season, much as Jaune's Aura Boost was, and now would be an ideal time to reveal it. The biggest concern after this week is that Neo will impersonate one of the heroes to get close to Oscar. This may work, but given Neo's Ruby impersonation, the viewers will already be on high alert for anything suspicious when Oscar's on screen. It wouldn't make for much of a twist unless her disguise is very well hidden.
Alternatively, Neo might not be going for Oscar at all.
Winter is the only member of Ironwood's team that is unaccounted for, and many fans (including myself) have guessed she has left to guard the Winter Maiden, putting her on a collision course with Cinder. Cinder's method of locating Fria may simply boil down to trailing Winter, Ironwood's most trusted lieutenant. However, it's possible Cinder herself might be trailed by Neo, looking to betray Cinder and secure the Maiden powers for herself. In the end, Cinder remains this Volume's largest wild card, threatening to turn Ironwood's cunning victory into a staggering defeat. We don't know what the fight over the Winter Maiden Mantle will even look like. For all we know, Winter has gone to Fria's bedside to kill her, securing the powers in Atlas' time of need (though I do think this specific possibility is less likely). Whatever happens, I'm excited to see Winter fight again, and I know Cinder's presence will have significant consequences for the Volume as a whole.
Now that we've talked about the immediate future, it's time to put on our tin-foil hats. I'm about to drop my craziest theory yet, and I can't decide whether I would be thrilled or horrified if it came to pass. Based on Cinder's comments, we learned that Salem's original plan was to crush Vale, then Mistral, then Vacuo, and finally Atlas. Cinder's been out of the loop for a while, but she recognizes that Salem has had to accelerate her plans. Initially, I thought this meant that Salem delayed her plans in Vacuo in order to stop the heroes from succeeding in Atlas. I mean, last we saw she was growing an army of flying monkeys and promising to "do the job herself." Didn't I say last year that Salem's new flying monkeys would be perfect shock troops for attacking the airborne city of Atlas? Perhaps.
What if she didn't change her plans? What if Ironwood defeats Watts, launches Amity, reestablishes communications...and Vacuo doesn't answer? What if Salem took her army to Vacuo as planned, all while the heroes were still blind and deaf? Now the tables have turned, and the heroes will become the infiltrators while Salem defends what she has conquered.
It's pretty far out there, and I doubt Mistral would fall so recently after the heroes left, but I figured I'd toss the idea out there. I can't think of a more shocking reveal at the end of Volume 7. On the other hand, shocking reveals alone don't make good shows. We'll have to wait and see, but if Luna's Law of Inverse Emotions has taught me anything, it's that you should expect the knife to twist when victory seems certain.

Loose Threads

Here's where I put all the small thoughts that didn't have a place in the larger piece:

And that's going to do it for today's review! If you liked my writing, consider checking my Masterpost out [HERE]. As always, thank you very much for reading. Constructive criticism and discussions are welcome below as always. We're in the final stretch here people, I hope everyone's buckled up!

Be safe, be creative, and be excellent to each other!
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Vetting may not work. Proactive boundaries do.

Vetting is the relationship strategy where a man takes a list of values and qualities he prefers in women and uses it to assess the viability of the woman he is currently dating so that he can know if she is worth committing to over the long term. The quintessential strategy for the type of men who readily identify with being traditional and conservative within a modern and liberal society. Note, these are little ‘l,’ and little ‘c.’ This isn’t about tribal politics, this is about men. The vetting strategy is thrown around as if its the same strategy men have used throughout history, when in reality it’s a horrible mental model; a narrative guys use to provide comfort for the grim reality that relationships all end, and most end well before the man is ready to move on, or his children have had the full biological father experience.
Vetting is a horrible strategy for the following reasons:
  1. Men do not know what they want in life. Men have a wonderful ability to rationalize what the world offers, transforming it what men wanted all along. A vetting list is guesswork and post hoc rationalization.
  2. Vetting a woman is vetting for values. The question is, whose values? Men today are instilled with feminine values, created by and for women to meet their own needs, not his.
  3. Vetting only works if everyone is doing the same and is immunized from everything else.
  4. Vetting for values is a narcissistic fantasy, and serve to hide the true nature of women and men in order to live in the narrative it presents. By the time the masks come off it’s too late.
  5. Vetting creates an ego investment, where a man ignores anything that is outside of his vetted criteria. If the list is wrong, it’s an attack on a mans ego, and he will fight tooth and nail to protect it.
  6. Even if the masks are off, and humans are naked and honest in their interactions (which they aren’t) vetting offers a snapshot into someones values, not a longitudinal assessment. It has the same longevity as an MBTI assessment; it’s astrology for the educated.
  7. Vetting is often done to the exclusion of actual relationship strategies. Boundary enforcement is far superior and doesn’t require a lifetime of instilling feminine values in a man in order to understand them.
Men do not know What they want in life. The idea of taking a man at his most inexperienced and encouraging him to develop a list of qualities that give him the best choice in a long term relationship is naive. Vetting is touted as mitigation of risk, but risk is a wonderful container word that we can fill with whatever feelings we want. What exactly is a man risking?
Is it financial risk? Most men will parrot the line of divorce bisecting a mans fortune, but this is post hoc rationalization, not the core reason. The kind of man who is able to build a fortune has the tools to build two. The kind of man who is unable to build a fortune doesn’t have the fortune to lose. Clearly it isn’t about financial hardship.
Is it about the risk of losing so much time to a poor connection? Men age well, and assuming their lives have been a constant path of improvement in the ways that matter most, we don’t lose so much time that our lives will end alone in a house of cat food at boxed wine. A strong theme is that men are being raised as defective women, and the idea of men aging like women, approaching that wall where we transform from young virile men into cold angry spinsters is a female insecurity. Men in their 30s, 40s, and 50s, with the assumption that putting in a modicum of effort are constantly growing into more valuable men, have many options throughout their lives. If a woman were to pull the plug, men are in a far better position to trade up in life. The amount of women who desperately search for high value men is at an all time high, we only need to reach out. A large part of having longevity in a relationship relies on a man being a womans best option. If you are one woman’s best option and she forgets, you can be another woman’s best option.
A real risk exists, in that a man can lose access to her children. Men cannot have children, they can only sire children. We get to be involved in the child's life at the behest of their mothers. And while this sounds callus, one of my mentors in this space gave me a wonderful piece of wisdom. “The majority of time you spend with your children will be with them as adults.” I should hope a mans primary concern with life isn’t his ability to babysit the kids, or coach a little league game for their sake, since we know it’s to soothe his own soul. The risk is in not being able to watch them grow up, or to be unable to raise them in the way you wish you were raised as a child. You weren’t raised that way and you turned out alright, which makes my point. Many of us had fathers who didn’t get to watch us grow up, and made up for lost time when we got older. I never got the privilege, my father died just before I turned eighteen. I’ve never held that chip on my shoulder, I turned out alright
The risk is ones ego. Most men who tout vetting as a relationship strategy tend to be early into their relationships. It’s not that a man knows it works, it’s that he hopes it worked, even though it was largely guesswork and coming to terms with the person that took interest in him.
Our ego tells us that this one of a kind girl is the kind of girl that we carefully observed and concluded that she was one of a kind, one in a million of her kind. For most men, the one of a kind girl wasn’t one of a kind, she was the one girl who kind of showed us any affection at all. The girl we were the kind of man that she was able to attract, he was her niche.
She had a specific type of man she could attract, and we let life happen to us.
And this is why vetting does not work. Vetting implies we are taking control over our lives, and in reality, most men are letting life happen to them, and vetting provides a narrative that allows a man to pretend he doesn’t sail to wherever the winds decide to take him. For the inexperienced man (most men) he doesn’t get to decide, others will decide for him and he has to come to terms with that, hence, vetting.
It doesn’t help that men are attached to wonderful container words such as: valor, honor, sacrifice, hardship. Military men are familiar with the phrase ‘Embrace the suck,’ as much of a military mans career is about enforced hardship in order to achieve a higher goal. It feels good, so many civilian men love to pretend their ability to keep a woman is akin to fighting the Nazis in Normandy.
“Sure, I would have served if it wasn’t for these flat feet, embrace the suck, Susan.”
Those container words are filled with values. A list used for vetting is a checklist of values, and those values did not come out of a vacuum. Men are not born with values inherent to them, they have to be taught, they have to be instilled in him. Who are the gatekeepers to values? Increasingly this is the pervue of women. Women create values, values by women, and for women. They may benefit a man, but in any situation where the values that benefit a man contradict the values that benefit a woman, the womans values win out, always.
The values in a mans life, the ‘should wants,’ or the ideological structure (not root words idea, ideal, logical.) Find me a social structure that creates these values that isn’t heavily influenced by women, and I’ll show you one that is about to. Women have invaded every male space and taken it over, often to the thunderous applause of the thirsty men who are happy to have the validation of their feminine gods to shine upon them. Paleolithic men loved to have structures that encourages women to join them, since women meant tribal longevity. That primal instinct is totally unprepared for a world of almost nine-billion people in peaceful societies removed from all natural threats. A mans deference to the female imperative is the diabetes of our value system, too much of a good thing is bad for us.
Men aren’t able to teach men anymore. The decimation of the family unit over generations has all but removed the man from the household, replaced with a substitute teacher father, who has Damocles sword over his head should he want to establish boundaries. “You’re not my real dad!” Right, his job was outsourced to cheap dad 2.0 labor. Pedophilia has pushed our removed many male teachers for young children. When I was a child I had a half a dozen male teachers before I got to high school, my nephew has none. Of the fathers that remain (half of the biological and step fathers) a great many are emasculated to the point of being wonderful feminist allies, codependent men who aren’t in a position to lead themselves, let alone lead the next generation of men to some measure of happiness. I know this because my generation wasn’t lead, and now we are in the position to pass on the lessons we didn’t learn to the generation that won’t stand a chance. I have a feeling a lot of dads will disagree with this and it warms my heart. You’re part of the solution, and this isn’t about you. The kind of person who reads this is so rare as to be a statistical outlier. I also know many of those dads are insecure, class conscious patriarch wannabes, the emperor wears no clothes, but one desperately needs him to be in a parka in order to convince himself that he’s happy.
There used to be other institutions that offered guidance outside the household. Church used to, though the pastors are now pastoresses. The church is running out of spaces for men so they coddle the women. It’s a common trope that the worst of women seek the church for absolution, and the church promises to get the flock to ‘man up and marry those hoes.’ Can you tell me that the church will fill mens heads with virtues that benefit him above all?
So without the influence of men, a cadre of women are spending the child's formative years instilling their feminine values onto him. It’s not malicious, they don’t know any different, nor should they. Men are raised as if they are women, is it any wonder they come out defective? The emasculated dads, the 2.0 not my dads? They are the cheerleaders, the allies. They parrot the same feminine attitudes and may as well grow breasts and own the role.
And many do.
So the needs of women are preached to men when they are young children, unencumbered by the needs of men. They are increasingly being removed from the household, the schools, and the churches. More and more women are spending more and more time around children, and raising men as if they were defective women, instilling the values that most resonate with women. We cannot expect any vetting to overcome the underlying values that created it. Though it does make women have a much easier time identifying these plow horses, looking to hardship and sacrifice for their next fix. First hit is free.
The thing about insecure men looking for assurances in their women is they don’t have the confidence in their own criteria. I’d suggest there’s something in our DNA that nags us, in the back of our head, a feeling that something is wrong, but not able to pinpoint exactly what it is. Mans ego soothes that, instead looking for the herd to reinforce and validate the values that were given to them by their women, codified in a list that is largely guesswork, in hopes of avoiding a risk that is poorly thought out, which is really the search for permanence in an impermanent social structure. We all die alone, the only difference is the spread between death and alone.
A man raised by men or influenced by men would be more accepting of the responsibility that comes with this. Female values search desperately to insulate responsibility, offload it onto authority, onto consensus, onto the rules. The modern relationship is like a virus set upon the traditional conservative values. Mind you, the thing about traditional conservative values is that they aren’t traditional, nor conservative. Modern men pretending they are traditional, based on advertisements from the Donna Reed show and Norman Rockwell Americana paintings, used to sell cigarettes and vacuums. Consumption culture doesn’t conserve, and the tradition was an aspirational one that actual tradition had to be convinced was the norm. A man isn’t the traditionalist, he is Norman, the symbol of relationships from a fictional time.
Vetting doesn’t work because it requires a cartel in his society. Everyone has to play by the same rules, and women just don’t. They don’t have to, it’s codified into law. Most family breakups aren’t from infidelity, or abuse, or some very reasonable criteria for their dissolution. They are broken up because, most of the time, the wife isn’t haaappy. Remember that sacrificial nobility referenced earlier? Those are his rules, not hers. Cartels never work, the instant one party can break the rules for personal gain, they do. Vetting can’t work when only half the society respects the values. Normans aspirations only work when Norman is the norm.
Does anyone know what one of the biggest indicators that a woman will divorce/separate are? It’s whether she has divorced friends. No one can vet a girl based on whether she has friends who will divorce in the next 5 years, or whether you’ll be required to move to a city and all new new friends and co workers are divorced women. As much as we like to think we are impervious to the influence the people around us give, we aren’t. I just wrote down the multitude of ways men have been raised with female values. Women are more prone to follow the herd then a man will ever be. It’s as large a difference between the sexes as there is the disparity in testosterone production between the sexes.
Thats the thing about vetting, or the vales checklists. Not only do I argue they aren’t effective, but it’s clear even the people who swear by them don’t have confidence in their efficacy. The mathematics of our world work whether it’s daytime or night, whether you’re in Africa of Asia. The value checklist only works if everyone has the same values, and homogeneous social groupings are basically extinct. I’d argue the Mormons, the Amish, and some of the backwater cultures on the dark continent are the last vestiges of it, but that doesn’t help anyone. A mass exodus will only water down what they have curated for themselves.
This all implies that the players are acting in good faith and honesty with each other.
In reality, vetting only serves to obfuscate the real people involved, encouraging masks, slowing down the period of getting to know the real person behind them. By the time the masks come down, it’s too late, the vetting has done its purpose already and it’s too late.
Earlier, when I suggested that the values that underlie a vetting checklist are build by women, for women? This couldn’t be any more clear than in seeing them work in practice. A man who is vetting a girl for a relationship doesn’t hide the fact he’s vetting a girl, in fact most men can’t shut up about their damned checklist. Two types of women will hear it, the first kind is the woman who has options, she sees one guy with a huge list of what she has to do, a shopping list to which the common answer is ‘you can’t tell me what to do!’ And she’s right. Any decently attractive young woman today doesn’t have to listen to a man ever, and no man has the ability to incentives her otherwise. The only tools he has are his value, and the tall buff guy on Tinder is much hotter, and has a much shorter list of criteria and he will win. Even chasing him will win, a mans list just isn’t any fun. However, once a woman has gotten to the tail end of ‘I wasted my 20s’ and wants out of the sexual marketplace (or worse yet, the sexual marketplace asks too much of her to continue) those same guys are sitting there with their lists. Clearly they are really good lists, look at how many women didn’t meet their criteria? No worries, girls have known whats on that list since they were seventeen. They throw away the bar dresses, grab a sun hat and a summer dress and take a few Tinder phis in a wheat field. Make sure she braids her hair and always stare:
Down and to the left, down and to the left. That’s a Kennedy assassination joke, and I worry it’s too obscure for anyone to catch.
Every man who played the field in his 20s and 30s knows these women. He’ll scroll through social media and see the girl he used to call up when he struck out on a Friday night, all of a sudden her bio looks like the Little House on the Prairie. “Wait, is this the same girl who I watched deep-throat a whiskey bottle last month?” No, it’s the virginal good girl who just wants a relationship, to settle down and have a family. And Norman will look at his list, look at her, and be so impressed with his luck.
“She is exactly what I’ve been looking for, she meets the list 100%” of course she did, when you follow the recipe you generally get the same dish as the one on the picture. She may believe that’s her now, shes highly invested in believing it, so why wouldn’t she? And for a year, two at most she will be. But the thing about masks is people cannot wear them forever. At some point she reverts back to her normal self, and the guy looks at someone who doesn’t resemble the girl on his list anymore. His ego will hide that from him, for a little while, but you can’t keep that up forever either. How do I know this so well? Hundreds of these guys are finding their way to this space via a Google search that has some variation of:
‘Hey Google, why won’t my wife have sex with me anymore?’
And it’s not just the girl wearing a mask either. The guy has his own mask, the one of the great guy with high standards, he’s loyal, he’s committed, and his greatest goal in life is to be the father of her children. It’s a narcissistic fantasy. He doesn’t want to raise a happy child into a functional adult, he wants to be a dad, and those aren’t the same thing. It’s OK if you don’t know the difference, because your kid will. Meanwhile the man gets to live his narcissistic fantasy, for a little while. He spent his adult life searching for this perfect woman, that value list stapled to his head like a party game. Read my wishes, fit the mold, and get what you want. Once a guy gets there, it all starts to sink in. His identity was created by women, for women. It’s not natural feeling. He may not know why he has this narcissistic fantasy, but after a while others go off script, others start to act like they have their own desires, their own values, and their own incentives to act in their own best interest. This isn’t supposed to happen!
After the first child, maybe before, maybe after, the girls honeymoon phase, or her mask comes off. Once it comes off she looks at that man beside her and realizes he doesn’t measure up to the kind of man that got her wet. She just doesn’t feel like it anymore, so she stops being his fantasy, his symbol to fetishes. The sun hat is replaced by a pixie cut, the cunt dressed replaced with a moo moo, the sweet femininity is replaced by a nagging battle Axe. The marriage is often replaced by a wealth transfer via divorce and accusations that he abused the kids. Never mind it’s not true, the courts have to act in the child's best interest, best not to take any chances! And once all this sinks in, the guy passes by any opportunities to take his balls back and start becoming an advocate for his own best unrests, once it’s too late, he finds out he’s been Zeroed Out.
This is narcissistic rage. It’s not pain, pain is when you drop a hammer on your foot. It’s not anger, anger is when someone else drops the hammer on your foot. Rage doesn’t make it to the frontal love, narcissistic rage is the limbic brain realizing that others aren’t adhering toe the narcissistic fantasy, they aren’t acting as the symbols of that fantasy, and the man can no longer fetishes them as set pieces in his one man play. Norman: The musical, no longer showing. This rage manifests in many ways. A man turns to the bottle, a man turns to nose candy, or turns to a barrel in the mouth. The lucky only rewrite their narcissistic fantasies, plume the women for daring to have agency and looking quickly for her replacement. Repeat until dead, free sandwich if you get the marriage card stamped 4 times.
Vetting doesn't work because vetting isn’t an action. It’s building a narcissistic fantasy wherein everyone gets to play their part until they get what they want, then the masks come off, we meet the real person bend them, and potentially have the narcissistic fantasy turn into narcissistic rage.
The man who gets married 2, 3, 4 times, he avoids all this by his ego investment. The mask comes off but his ego puts it right back on. She isn’t lying about working late, when she comes home to immediately have a shower it’s because she’s tired and it helps her sleep better. She isn’t texting someone else, you can trust her because you vetted her properly. Clearly you’re the best man in the world, she wouldn’t dare leave you for another man. Oh that guy? Yeah, you’re way better than him, so she couldn’t be lying about just being friends.
Vetting doesn’t work because our egos will work overtime to ensure anything and everything a woman does outside that list will conform to that list, the alternative is to admit we were wrong, the list is wrong, and that we were living a lie. We can’t have that, so it must be some other convoluted explanation!
So we have a list of values that were largely guesswork, put together by a man who lets life happen to him and rationalizes it as a preference. The values that underlie the list are created by women, for women, and increasingly with less and less male influence when it matters the most. It vets for values that only have meaning if the social groups we belong to act as a cartel, which they never do. The list is really just a script for an unrealistic play that two people agreed to do for a year or two until it becomes too hard to pretend, and even when it happens, a man will most likely pretend it’s everyone else's fault but his own that anything went wrong.
For some men they rewrite the narrative on the fly, their ego defends them against living in a lie by changing the lie. Miller lite masculinity, named after the flavorless beer is a great safeguard against coming to terms with a false fantasy crashing down. Instead of exploding outward, raging against the failed scripts outside, they go inside. The man isolated himself in the man cave, isolated from the family he vetted for. He turns from chasing women and family to chasing fantasy football, growing a beard, driving a truck, drinking beer, smoking a pipe, jerking off to fine leather, doing anything and everything to hide from the fact that his narcissistic fantasy is a lie. Norman 2: Electric Boogaloo is born.
Even if all of that isn’t true, and everything happens in the exact opposite way, it wouldn’t make any difference. People could be honest, cartels could work, the list could be foolproof and the values congruent with a mans best interest and it still wouldn’t matter. Vetting is about as useful as MBTI, astrology for the educated. It offers a snapshot into a persons life instead of the longitudinal assessment everyone hopes it to be.
What is MBTI? The Myers Briggs Type Indicator. It’s a pop-psychology form of astrology. Instead of Sagittarius there’s introversion, instead of Scorpio there’s sensing. How does this relate to vetting, or value lists? It’s because they don’t predict anything, they merely assess a person at a moment in time. People change, relationships change people, and the person you were with 5 years ago isn’t the same person you are with now. We can be generous and call it growth, or we can not and call it divergence. The point is, the values you vet for are not the values she will have after your first child, after you put a ring on her, or after the divorce papers are served. MBTI has a half life of 6 weeks, that means that if you give a hundred people an MBTI assessment, in 6 weeks half of them will test differently. Now it is pop-psychology, on par with phrenology, it’s got more rigor than your damned list. What do you think the half life is of your value assessments? What do you think your skill is when it comes to accurately assessing a girls values?
People shed their cells and replace them all the time. The person you knew seven years ago is almost entirely a completely new person, a Ship of Theseus in real time. When a man vets a girl, he isn’t assessing her long term commitment to his fantasies, he is assessing her ability to fulfill them today, right now, and merely hopes that it will carry onto the future. I’d say the divorce rate is a good indicator as to the longevity of vetting, but it’s no longer very good at it, people know the jig is up, and stopped even testing their lists. I don’t blame them, I consider myself among them. Do you really think you were smarter, more rigorous, a better judge of character than half the men that came before you? Maybe you are, are you also better, smarter, more rigorous than the ones who beat the odds and live out quiet lives of desperation inside of their marriage? Any smart man shouldn’t have that same level of certainty.
If the list, the values, the qualities you measured today have no guarantees of being there tomorrow, why even bother with the list, it’s just a crap shoot. Oh, so it increases the odds? OK, and betting on red or black instead of a specific number has better odds in roulette, the house takes it all in the end. Surely men are smart enough to figure out a better way.
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How to Succeed As a Professional Poker Player

In previous posts I have explained my attitude regarding My Lottery Loopholes Review roulette systems that can be obtained either for free or for a payment on the Internet. If you decide to employ the following system I would urge you to repress old gambling habits and just apply in a professional manner what you are about to learn. If I had to evaluate the following system according to end results, I would give a 7 out of 10 and mind you, this is the highest mark I have ever given to a system found on Internet.
The roulette is a random number generating engine. It produces numbers constantly and that's necessarily leads to pattern repetition. A simple pattern could be to generate the same category of numbers, i.e. even numbers. I have seen a roulette producing as many as 24 even numbers in the row.An attitude share by all players in the world is to follow the trend.
Does the roulette give even numbers? Just follow its whim for as long as it last and you will be on the plus side, unless you are the last one to find out , resulting in at least one losing general, if you follow the above strategy then you are a trend follower and most players that use past data in their betting strategy are followers. Still, there are some players that although they take past data under consideration they bet against the revealed pattern and are named accordingly breakers.If I had to choose a similar betting strategy I would choose to be a breaker.
Using breaking gives a bigger confidence in our bets since the breaker can bet against a bigger range of patterns that cannot go on for ever. But better to give an example Doubling your bets is not considered the best betting strategy and following 4 unsuccessful attempts you should abort and wait for a new pattern to arise in order to start a new betting set. Otherwise you run a huge risk of losing the full betting capital.There are more complicated combinations than red/black. Odd/even together with colors, columns, dozens, areas so on and so forth and the more complicated the combination the faster it will break.
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10 Reasons Why CS:GO Doesn't Suck As Much As You Think

A YouTube channel by the name of Valve Guides just released a video titled "10 Reason Why CS:GO Sucks Right Now". I've seen a few videos like this from various channels, and have been getting increasingly frustrated at the misinformation these videos come with. Most importantly, I've become sad that people seem to have completely given up on CS:GO when it is currently better than it has ever been (as CS:GO, and arguably as a Counter-Strike game in general). So I've made this post in an attempt to counter the points in that specific video, while also explaining my frustrations in general at what I've heard over the past few weeks from other YouTubers and players.
  10 - Messy Gameplay   What? 1.6 was one of the clunkiest FPSs of its time, the pacing was pretty good but there were some stupidly-busted mechanics like wallbangs through insanely thick walls, not being able to move AT ALL after being shot (meaning first shot = kill 90% of the time, allowing for little counterplay other than reaction times), insanely reduced first-shot accuracy (especially due to that insanely huge crosshair that you couldn't really modify without some technical knowhow - further increasing the skill floor for first-time players), etc.   By "1.6 is clunky" I mean to say the movement system didn't mesh well with the object of the game. Bunnyhopping is a prime example of how the game was artificially sped up when the pacing of the rounds would've been much slower without them. By pacing of the round I mean, how much action is going on in a specific time frame (1 round or 30 seconds, etc.).
CS:GO's pacing is controlled by grenades currently, whereas 1.6 was more about the "glitches" like Bunnyhopping, wallbanging and "tagging" which isn't a glitch but arguably overly powerful. I don't know much more about 1.6's systems but I can say that after about 100 hours I just had the feeling that I had less control over my movement in 1.6 due to these more advanced systems (that I didn't, at the time, have the tools to learn about) than I do currently in CS:GO. This is more opinion based than the rest of the piece, and I feel like people are taking it out of context. I was just trying to tone down the 1.6 nostalgia-tinted glasses that seems to be going around where people are saying that 1.6 was 1000x better in every aspect and was the best competitive shooter in history (that title goes to Quake 3 btw ;).   9 - Balance issues   This one I'll agree with, there are things that can still be balanced but I think griping on this now, at a time where Valve has been at its most active in reaching out to the community and actually acting on our suggestions, is kind of mean-spirited and preaching to the choir at this point. Hitboxes are better than ever, they're actually trying to fix jumpshotting, spraying, first-shot accuracy, etc. in a meaningful way. xx   He also says something here I want to touch on. "Changes to a weapon can reduce your incentive to come back and continue playing." Really? If changes in a video game that force you to re-learn a skill stop you from wanting to play that game, fine, but you're in the insanely small minority. That's what video games are, constantly changing, ever-evolving. They're young, they aren't like most sports that have been around for a century or more and have fine-tuned their rules over that period of time. So it's just kind of a part of every game, not just CS - and it's something you have to deal with as a competitive player. If you don't want to, that's up to you, but it doesn't make CS:GO "suck".
8 - Skin Betting Ban   So this is part of the community SURROUNDING the game, not about the game itself. But I'll still say something about it.   Betting on sports in general has always been a touchy subject, especially in North America (where a lot of CS:GO fans are located currently - not all, just saying the majority of betting sites were located here, etc.). So it makes sense to continue the trend in NA and specifically the US to just outright ban it and force them to act illegally. It reduces the chance of under-aged people wanting to bet - by reducing the popularity, and reducing the # of legitimate players (i.e. streamers and pros) that advocate it. But it also de-legitimizes betting which was a large source of income for the CS:GO scene. So banning it has some positives and some negatives. The best route here would be for Valve to release an official betting system using skins and not just the "Pick 'Em" system they have now - similar to what CSGOLounge used. I still believe that the roulette-style sites are straight-up casino gambling and should always be illegal, regardless of currency used (skins, money, chips, w/e). Again, doesn't even come close to making the game "suck". I also don't really understand how Valve banning all betting sites (which are definitively illegal) makes the whole scene look "shady". If anything it has the opposite effect to onlookers in that it creates a sense that Valve have some control over the scene and want to legitimize eSports.   7 - Scandals   sigh Again, community - not the game itself. All communities have bad eggs. CS:GO is the biggest FPS in terms of eSport popularity, hands down. But it isn't the biggest eSport. DotA, League and Starcraft also have their fair share of scandals, so it's no big surprise to anyone that CS:GO has had some as well. It is also the first extremely large FPS eSport, whereas DotA and League have Starcraft 2 to thank (partially) for paving the way for their popularity, and their ruleset (as well, Riot in particular has done a stellar job in cracking down on illegitimate practices, reducing the # of scandals as the years have progressed). CS:GO happens to be the youngest large eSport out there, so the # of scandals currently should go down as things subside (and indeed they seem to be dying down, the last big one I can remember was IBP throwing as well as some fishy stuff going on at a tournament that I can not recall currently, over the summer IIRC). AGAIN, does not make CS:GO as a game suck. Just means it's a growing eSport and as such, Valve should be doing things to crack down on illegitimate behaviour...which it has been doing, and continues to do. Some might say too little too late, or not fast enough, but I prefer to say better late than never, or better a little than not at all.   6 - Toxic Community   Every multiplayer video game since WoW has had a toxic community. It's literally a meme at this point. Saying a game sucks because it has a toxic community is like saying a slice of bread sucks because it has a crust. It comes with the territory, and there's not much the developemanufacturer can do to avoid this. It's up to the end-user to tailor their own experience. With bread, you have a knife capable of cutting the crust off. With video games, developers give you the ability to mute your fellow gamers if you find their actions distasteful. It's not a fantastic solution because it requires effort of the end-user, and in gaming it hinders your ability to play competitively, but it is a solution. You can also play with friends to cut out the issue entirely, and you can make friends by adding people you find that are kind or communicative in solo-queue to your list and continuing to play with them. I just joined/started to form an ESEA team with some random guy I met while solo-queueing who happens to live <2 hours away from me.   So yeah, again - doesn't mean CS:GO sucks - just means the community is large enough where the toxicity is more noticeable. Just like every other major eSport (League, DotA, Starcraft . . . even larger MMOs like EvE & WoW, and casual FPSs like CoD and Halo, as he mentioned in the video).   5 - Hackers   Okay so this seems to be a heated topic in CS:GO for some reason, when it has never been in any game before...even though the # of hackers I've witnessed in CS:S, and other games like ArmA, DayZ, Battlefield, America's Army, and Call of Duty is far greater than I've ever seen in CS:GO. Maybe it's because the hackers have a greater impact on the game, due to matchmaking having ranks and people putting so much emphasis on having a good rank. Or maybe it's because the game itself takes longer to complete than most eSports, so you have more riding on it. Not sure.   But I will say that the # of hackers in CS:GO is on the decline, and continues to be due to tremendous efforts by Valve. Despite what many believe, VAC actually does its job! gasp I know, hard to believe. But it does its job, and does it well. It acts in secrecy because it must, if it gives status updates of any kind it also gives coders a way to discern in what way they are being detected and allows for hackers to stay ahead. By operating in secrecy, it allows Valve to catch up to the hackers (or attempt to) and detect many hacks at once (which is why bans come in "waves" - when a system is detected VAC takes several days to collect data on as many people using the hacks with that system implemented as possible, and bans them all at once).   I will also say that Valve has taken a good starting point with the Prime Matchmaking system. I have noticed a significant drop in hackers in my games at the DMG-LEM range (where I've been since Prime started, and for many months prior) since its release, and I know that even though the # of hackers in GE is higher, it still seems to be less for most people across the board. There are also 3rd-party clients that help to alleviate this issue, but I won't give them too much credence as they aren't truly a part of CS:GO as a game.   So while yes, CS:GO has cheaters, Valve as a developer is doing a good job (in my humble opinion) at deterring and punishing cheaters, and can't be held accountable for every single time you witness a cheater in a game. Especially if it isn't a blatant cheater, due to human error in accusing people of cheating they can't spectate, which I think creates this image that the problem is larger than it appears.   I also want to address the video here. It makes light of VAC by spouting a meme at the end (unprofessional, and more importantly demonstrates ignorance of how VAC actually works). But the video also states that some pros have made it to LAN tournaments (I think that's the inference by saying "pros make it to ESEA"?). There's been no proof that any pro has used a cheat during a tournament. There are a few that come to mind (KQLY, and I know of at least one other whom I can't recall the name of) but I can't recall any time where there was video proof of cheats. (#FreeKrimz #ImNotAProfessionalYouTuberSoICanMeme)   4 - Deranking Updates   Ranks don't mean anything. I repeat, ranks don't mean anything. Pros don't care about their ranks. Really good players shouldn't (and often don't) care about their ranks. The ONLY rank that counts right now is ESEA, and that's a new thing. It only matters because S Rank is a way for players to showcase their skills, and reaching that really is a testament to how good you are and can potentially launch an eSport career.   But to say that CS:GO sucks partially because Valve balances their rank update to better distribute skill across their ranks is ludicrous. There's really no other way to put it, and no way I can articulate why it's wrong other than to say that balancing your game is important, and allowing people to play against those with the same rank is paramount to the success of a game. Just think of it this way - if you deranked, that means MOST people at your rank ALSO deranked. So everyone that WAS Supreme was deranked to LEM (or whatever the case was with the literally one time this happened in the past 2-3 years). It's a good point that players might become disinterested after seeing their hard work "go to waste", but honestly it only goes to waste if they quit, because only then will the work have been for nothing. Losing your rank doesn't strip you of the skill you acquired. So it shouldn't matter what rank you are, only how good you perceive yourself to be. And if a random image next to your name validates your perception of yourself, you might want to look deeper at why you play CS:GO in the first place.   3 - Lack of Support   I said a lot of what I would normally say here above at #9, in that Valve has been more active with updates and support in the past year than from launch to the beginning of this year, but I also want to add one more thing. The narrator mentions in the video that TF2 received way more support than CS:GO has. And I want to explain why that's total bullshit. &nsp; The first major update that added new content to TF2 was 4 months after its release, however of course many updates were done prior on balancing. CS:GO had maybe a dozen updates in the months prior to its release (I can't find any evidence this was so for TF2 but correct me if I'm wrong). And the first major update (a new mode) came 2 months after release (competitive matchmaking and skill groups). Another mode (DM) was launched 2 months after that, and the first map 3 months after that. There have been consistent updates at least once a month since release, seen here (since launch) and here (since December 2013).   A few specifics to address. VAC bans I've already covered, but the reason pros are banned is because they are high-priority targets as they affect revenue streams on a greater scale, and proof is the only thing required. To VAC ban someone who plays the game normally, you can't go around banning everyone with proof because that would take forever (hence the Overwatch system), so VAC banning is automated to when it detects a cheat. Valve doesn't need to detect a pro player's cheat client to have them VAC banned. Problems that take months to fix is a moot issue now, as they have proven they can be fast at fixing issues when they are presented in a meaningful and easy-to-reproduce way. And for the console version, he already covers why that's again a moot issue. I'd also add that very few people most likely play CS:GO on console, and that Valve developers can choose which projects they want to work on which most likely led to the decline in updates for that platform. An excuse and not a reason, but yeah, I can see his point here - it kinda sucks to abandon part of your playerbase, however small it is. But seriously, #PCMasterRace.   2 - Bad Updates   Again, another moot point. Valve just recently introduced a Beta platform that has been used to great effect in reducing the number of issues an update causes when pushed to the live servers. None of the problems he lists have been since that was implemented. And again, he says "Months to fix issues" where again this has changed.   1 - Betraying Trust   I don't really have much to say here, because everything he said is true but I don't think Valve ever betrayed our trust in them to the point where the game ultimately sucks. They are still trying to win our trust back, and for some of us have succeeded. And I choose not to believe that they ever willingly chose to betray our trust. I truly believe that all changes they've made is with their community (and bottom line) in mind. And it would be very bad for their bottom line to betray their community on a fundamental level. I think they did that a few times, but never willingly, because Valve operates as a business first and foremost and business operate under the true meaning of "The Customer is Always Right" which means that the customer knows what they want, give it to them mentality. In gaming, developers have to be careful because not all their customers want the same thing, so it is a fine line in knowing what to do and what not to do, but it does come down in the end to our faith in their ability to create a solid game.   And in the end, I truly believe Valve has done that. They continue to support it through major tournament pots and prizes, major updates fairly frequently (one to two a year, that continue to produce content for a month or two due to the nature of the drops these updates bring), and balance changes (that admittedly are sometimes done poorly). Again, I truly believe that Valve want the best for this game and for its community, and I believe that they have shown that in the past few months. They have shown that they believe in their community, and they have shown that they have the ability to do CS:GO's community justice. And I don't think that making a video that says CS:GO straight-up sucks is the best course of action, and I've been seeing quite a few videos to this end.   If you truly cared about Counter-Strike and its playerbase, you wouldn't say the game is terrible and tell people not to play it, because that will just cause Valve to abandon it all together. Encourage them to speak out about what they dislike without completely dismissing the game as a lost cause (which is what, in my opinion, saying a game is fundamentally "bad"/sucks, does). Encourage them to educate themselves on the development process, on the ins and outs of the game's mechanics, and how to give your own input like many redditors have done in the past. And in general, just enjoy the game for what it is without worrying about the future. Because currently, in many people's opinion, the game is quite fun to play. I know it is for me.
TL;DR: CS:GO doesn't suck, it really hasn't ever sucked - at least not for quite some time. Valve has proved itself worthy again, in the last few months, by releasing Prime Matchmaking, Beta Versions of updates, and timely fixes for issues found by the community. The game is in quite a good spot, with quite a few gripes about the game (mechanically-speaking) being non-issues now. So, with that in mind, I disagree that making videos such as the one listed above is really helping anything. In fact, I believe it's a detriment to CS:GO as it might make people shy away from the game where they otherwise wouldn't have.  
In short: Play the game. Inform yourself about the ins and outs of what is and isn't possible for Valve to do, and what is and isn't realistic in terms of expectations for updates, and the timing of those updates. And give constructive criticism in whatever form you can. But please, don't abandon this game. Help make Counter-Strike great again.
EDIT: Thanks to everyone who has participated (and continues to participate) in the discussion! I think I've said all I wanted to say, if you have questions look in my comment history for my opinion and if you don't see it feel free to PM me and I can explain anything unclear about my opinion specifically.
But I think we can all agree that ValveGuides was just view-baiting with the title and content, the arguments for each of the points (except #10 it seems) are all flawed, and most of you understand the point of my post. Some were just here to fanboy 1.6 and complain about how bad CS:GO is in comparison, and I understand that nostalgia and time spent playing a game you loved when you're younger can taint your opinion so I won't take it too harshly the amount of illogical and false statements made. I'll stop replying to comments on this thread, though. Have a good night everyone!
submitted by SoupOrJuice13 to GlobalOffensive [link] [comments]

Would this work, or is it really just a form of the Gambler's fallacy?

submitted by Sentinel147 to math [link] [comments]

The Safety Paradox: What history can teach SpaceX about a crippling trap.

This is pretty long, so feel free to jump straight from the Introduction to the Conclusions section at the end if you're not in the mood, but at least review the body of material if you intend to comment.
I. Introduction.
Elon Musk famously advises engineers to think by First Principles and avoid thinking by analogy, since in engineering the only absolutes are physics; everything else is circumstantial. As a philosophy, this approach has enabled SpaceX to repeatedly make leaps in technology that industry incumbents had considered absurd until they were achieved. But, ironically for a space company, nothing occurs in a vacuum - engineers are subject to economics, and economics to politics.
Politics is where human spaceflight - both public and private - encounters a troublesome and dangerous phenomenon: The Safety Paradox. Stated simply, safety improves quickest with increasing flight experience, but politics demands safety up front before it will authorize the risky first steps to gain that experience. The more political the decision-making process, the higher the bar for initial safety tends to be, and the more crippling the resulting paradox is - producing safer first flights, but badly compromising the capacity to evolve from there.
As a private entity, SpaceX has considerable latitude to take risks with its own resources, but has chosen - or finds it economically necessary - to rely almost exclusively on the funds of NASA's Commercial Crew program to develop its first-generation human spaceflight capability via Dragon 2. The resulting political dependency has subjected it to an increasing degree of the Safety Paradox as NASA demands greater and greater up-front guarantees at the expense of future capability.
The reason we can call it a Paradox is evident in the fact that NASA has not flown astronauts on an American spacecraft since 2011, and yet is still content to demand a greater level of initial flight safety by an order of magnitude than it had ever demanded before. In other words, having no flights whatsoever is treated as a legitimate "safety state" rather than being the least acceptable condition, so it finds itself attaching conditions to an activity that result in the activity not happening at all.
This is a radical departure from the mentality that made human spaceflight viable in the first place...
II. Cutting the Gordian Knot - Vostok 1.
The flight of Yuri Gagarin in 1961 was not in any domain that a rational human being would call "safe." The unknowns were so vast despite animal test flights, and the reliability of the Vostok rocket so bad, that the odds were seen as basically 50/50. And as every step of the way was both purely political and extraordinarily expensive, there is no chance that anything other than a totalitarian superpower in a state of acute paranoia would authorize such a flight.
Fortunately, that's exactly what it was, so the Soviet Union brought out its best and brightest as potential ritual sacrifices, picked one to spin the roulette wheel with a bet on Red (capital R), and lit the candle. Had Gagarin died, it's unlikely that the program would have been stood down until the engineers proved what had gone wrong and fixed it - we can reasonably say they would mostly likely have launched again and again until it worked, learning as fast as they could, but also launching as fast as they could. That was the mentality that put the USSR in a position to be first.
The shock Gagarin's flight produced in the United States was accentuated by the radical difference of standards - NASA, despite its relative boldness, found itself with the early makings of the Safety Paradox due to a democratic political system. Bizarrely, while the US government pissed away human lives by the dozens testing experimental aircraft, space was so high-profile that Air Force risk-management SOP was considered non-viable. And because it was assumed the same attitude must prevail in Moscow, the only way Americans could imagine the Soviets launching would be if their technology was far ahead of ours.
It wasn't. They just accepted the risk and flew. And that - the decision to fly despite the risks - is what allowed their technology to then leap ahead of ours. But the misimpression Gagarin's success created led the US to believe that human spaceflight was safer than it was, leading to approval of our own initial human flights on systems that would be laughed out of the room as suicide devices today. And yet the decision to Go opened humanity to an entirely new context.
Had either the Soviet Union or the United States operated on the principles that now strangle NASA and its commercial contractors, nothing at all would have happened. Without the experiences generated by those flights and the later missions they enabled, no amount of ground testing and mathematical modeling could ever have justified launching a human into space to the standards being applied now. There would be no human spaceflight, period.
Which is why, for NASA today, there isn't. They would rather hitchhike on half-century-old Russian spacecraft than on American craft 3x better, for the Bizarro World reason that it's not 10x better, resulting in a circumstance that's 0x better. If a time traveler handed them a bunch of Saturn Vs and Apollos for free, they would not be allowed to fly them - but they would be allowed to fly the craft that lost the Space Race (Soyuz) simply because they've been around longer. Such an irony is a profound demonstration of the madness of the Safety Paradox.
Lesson #1 for SpaceX: Go.
If NASA doesn't want to go, then go alone and deal with them later. Shame their timidity with successful boldness, inspire them with the speed of learning from failures, and use the experience to improve what you can offer them. Go, go, go.
There's no other way to break an institution out of this kind of torpor. NASA was only ever allowed to go because the Soviets did; NASA will only be allowed to go today when SpaceX does, and Congress sees the futility of standing in its way.
III. Safety Paradox by design - one reason the Soviets fell behind in the race to the Moon.
The Soviet designers were not crazy, of course - they did what they could to make a safe spacecraft, but there were just too many unknowns to calculate against to do that in the earliest years. So they built very simple, rigid, highly automated craft and left very few decisions to cosmonauts. That let them get ahead temporarily, but eventually became an impediment.
With their comfortable lead in the early years of the Space Race, the USSR started feeling the nag of risk-aversion. Because they had built such rigid systems, and were able to build better and better models for it, they were not so impressed at first with the "crazy cowboy nonsense" of Gemini and Apollo - a couple of true "pilot's spacecraft." There were just so many unknowns involved in leaving that many decisions up to astronauts.
Soviet designers felt that Apollo was suicidal, and would virtually guarantee the death of the crew. They were so disturbed by its design that even after the successful completion of the lunar program, they needed extraordinary assurances to okay the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project docking mission in 1975.
How did the US become so maverick, switching places with its opponent in the Space Race? The political demand to overcome the Soviet lead had given American engineers leeway to go on drunken spending sprees and design by the seat of their pants, which forced them to put a lot of faith in the hands of the crew. The result were spacecraft designed to be tools of the crew rather than passive transport mechanisms.
Was Apollo rigorously qualified by modeling and testing before it flew? Hell no. They just made sure it worked, in the most pragmatic sense, without even fully knowing why it worked (e.g., see the history of F-1 qualification vis-a-vis combustion instability), and for the more abstruse imponderables gave more power to the astronauts to figure things out on the fly.
And it worked. Over, and over, and over, with only one near-catastrophe. But today's NASA is not allowed to fly on "it works." Reality is not sufficient. In fact, despite having successfully sent people to the surface of the Moon six times, Saturn V + Apollo was so poorly qualified in pure data terms that - as mentioned - today's NASA would not be allowed to fly them even if they were handed a bunch of them for free.
Safety Paradox mentality is deeply embedded in what historian and futurist Yuval Noah Harari calls "Dataism" - the ideological veneration of data over the human reality it's supposed to serve. It's a manifestation of dysfunction in modern institutions in all walks of life - everything from the military, to police departments, to schools, feeding corrupt statistics games while the reality falls apart. And apparently NASA is no exception. A theoretical safety number on a paper is more important than the reality that it's not even flying, so there's nothing to even do "safely."
But for that number to actually mean have to fly!
Lesson #2 for SpaceX: Human spaceflight is most robust when it's exactly that - human.
A spacecraft should be a tool of the people riding in it, empowering their flexible intelligence, not a trap completely bound to the fallibility of its designers. Even if that makes the models impractical to rigorously calculate, it works, and makes Lesson #1 much more profitable to implement.
For human spaceflight to finally break through, SpaceX and other commercial providers will need to demonstrate more common sense than NASA, and refuse to follow it down the rabbit hole of crippling Dataism.
IV. Go Fever - the other pincer of the Paradox.
But what about Shuttle? Wasn't Shuttle bold and flexible? Doesn't its ultimate failure of both economics and safety argue against the above points? Hardly. Shuttle was the Safety Paradox incarnate. Let's start out with the fact that people often forget:
  • Shuttle was a retreat from the Moon back to Low Earth Orbit.
Ostensibly the reason for cancelling Apollo was that lunar missions cost too much, but if that was the actual motivation, why wasn't the goal of the next program to develop a cheaper lunar architecture? Why not modify Saturn V and Apollo to be increasingly cheap and safe? Why, in fact, was Shuttle not only optimized for LEO, but incapable of even being modified for anything more ambitious?
Simply put, LEO is safer than the Moon - or at least looks that way to the political mentality. Likewise, not flying at all is safer than LEO, and people with that kind of mind have delivered us this necrotic "safety" in spades - a condition they appear determined to keep us trapped in as long as possible. But upon cancellation of Apollo, there were still a lot of jobs on the line, so they compromised at the time and sought to define the bare-minimum mission that would still (superficially) justify the expense while allegedly reducing risk.
There was an implied promise that once Shuttle made LEO safe and affordable enough - once the numbers reached some arbitrary but unstated point - then NASA would be allowed to go back to the Moon. But it was bullshit. Even if Shuttle had succeeded at both objectives, the goalposts would simply have been moved in LEO - which is exactly what has happened - rather than triggering a return to the Moon.
Since there have only been 6 Moon landings, there isn't enough Data (capital D) to rigorously prove how safe it is, and there are enough unknowns still involved that it's not practical to prove by modeling, so to the Safety Paradox mentality, you cannot justify landing on the Moon again - maybe ever again.
So, back to LEO. But once retreated to LEO, the Safety Paradox revealed its deadly irony...
  • Shuttle risked more for less, simply because there was more data available to work with about LEO flight.
Somehow, in the institutional minds that calculate risk, they decided that flying seven people at once with almost no abort modes, next to two solid rocket boosters, on an orbiter with a gigantic heat shield, would be safer than sending 3 people to lunar orbit on a vastly simpler craft with all sorts of abort modes. They had enough Data on LEO that they were comfortable doing this - the Holy Numbers were saying it was safe, so it must be safe despite otherwise obvious conceptual flaws.
When disaster did finally strike, did they think "This is not as safe as we thought, so we might as well be ambitious"? Of course not. Because now that the data showed it was unsafe, and their safety goals unrealistic, they didn't adjust their goals to reflect the reality of what they were trying to do - they just flew a lot less often, doubling down on an unsafe and expensive architecture in order to make the numbers theoretically fit.
When history repeated itself, they retreated even further, and now here we are - the country that landed people on the Moon is not allowed to even fly them to LEO. Not even on spacecraft that are radically safer than Shuttle, because the Commercial Crew contractors don't meet an arbitrary number in modeling dictated by politics rather than common sense.
It's a case study in how Dataism makes political institutions ignore reality and produce perverse results. E.g., Congress in the 1970s onward refusing to go back to the Moon because it's "too expensive" and "not safe enough," even though Shuttle's activities in LEO proved to cost more and be less safe per dollar than Apollo.
Lesson #3 for SpaceX: Lack of ambition is not safer. It's deadly.
When you let theoretical safety numbers dictate what you intend to do rather than deciding first and then figuring out how, the result is an inevitable downward spiral of capability and a crippling of future improvements. By forcing SpaceX to abandon landing legs for the Dragon 2, NASA crippled a key enabling feature for making the spacecraft rapidly reusable.
By allowing NASA to do that rather than pursuing the capability in parallel at its own expense, SpaceX is screwing itself out of years of time and flight experience, offloading its plans likely into the far side of the next decade in the form of BFS. And if they are lucky enough to build a human-carrying BFS and actually launch one with people in the 2020s, how are they going to manage the massive risk and expense involved if Dragon 2 with landing legs is a Bridge Too Far to cross independently?
Accepting NASA's irrational demands means that SpaceX will be acquiescing to an inferior product than what they're capable of - one that is less safe and more expensive than it could be, and crippled from improving because NASA refuses to navigate the Safety Paradox to fulfill its actual purpose as an agency. And they will absolutely be blamed as a company for the consequences when the fictional "safety" NASA demands collides with reality.
When people die in a SpaceX craft, will the company be able to say the failure was toward a purpose, or like Shuttle-era NASA, will they be forced into existentialist excuses that they delivered what the customer demanded?
Let Boeing play that pathetic game. SpaceX has the capacity to lead both industry and institutions alike, and to show NASA the right way to do things. To accept NASA's money in order to perpetuate its mistakes is ass-backwards.
V: Conclusions
  • There's no substitute for doing. No number in a spreadsheet replaces actual, physical achievement. Amazingly, decades of torment from Congress have deranged NASA into not believing this. SpaceX must not allow itself to be contaminated with this mentality. If it can, it must find a way to rescue its Commercial Crew partner from politically-imposed stupidity; and if it can't, it must circumvent them to keep its own human spaceflight plans viable.
  • Human spacecraft are tools of humans, not the other way around. Rigid, unambitious designs in service to the control-freak Dataist ideology of institutions are crippled from the start, and a waste of time. SpaceX should not allow its technology to be crippled for the sake of revenue streams that become pointless in the process. Such approaches are inherently unsafe, and inherently doomed to low flight rates that make safety evolution slow at best.
  • Safety is not a goal, it is a tool to achieve a goal. The minute safety is treated as a goal in itself, doing anything becomes increasingly impractical until you're doing nothing at all. The objective determines the acceptable level of safety, not the other way around. That is, if you actually intend to succeed. SpaceX must always be guided by this, and find a way to rehabilitate NASA's pitiful risk-aversion or else work around it.
submitted by KubrickIsMyCopilot to SpaceXLounge [link] [comments]

If you ever find yourself handling blue dollars, it may already be too late

I don’t have a gambling problem. That’s the first thing I want known. It’s also what they all say, right? No, I’m not addicted to gambling, but I have a co-dependency issue with someone who is.
I’m not the coolest guy on the block, and I’m not particularly good at anything. Ted is, though, and we’ve been best friends since we were four. He’s the one who always pushes forward blindly into adventures, and I guess I’m the one who always gets him back out when things go sideways. There’s always been an element of luck to our continued physical and financial survival, but never more than now.
We’d flown out to Napa Valley for a friend’s wedding—and already ditched the reception party at around eleven. I could hardly afford to do anything; I’d only been able to come because Ted had bought me a ticket. Because I was only there on his generosity, I followed him to the quiet and rather empty bars that sparsely dotted the area. It was beautiful country, filled with vineyards and history, but it was not a party town. This frustrated Ted, of course, who began plying locals with drinks in order to interrogate them about local hotspots. “Somebody has to be having fun in this town,” he would say with a grin.
One bitter old man finally spoke up at the third empty bar we invaded. “There’s a casino, if you really need it that bad.”
We looked at our phones, but Google Maps showed nothing.
“It won’t be on any map,” the old man said, scowling at us. “Just go south from here and you’ll find it.”
Behind our informant, I saw an unhappy look on the bartender’s face. That should have tipped me off—but Ted was already thanking the old man and heading for the door. I followed quickly, ignoring the uneasy feeling in the pit of my stomach.
Driving through the rolling hills at night was a claustrophobic and confusing experience. Our phone signal dropped, and we found ourselves driving purely by instinct. West? South? East? It was impossible to know for sure. We stuck to the sole road until it turned to dirt underneath the wheels. That’s when I almost called the whole thing.
But Ted pulled up outside a graveyard and pointed. “Look! Cars!”
And he was right: two dozen cars were parked on the grass next to an unassuming old church that had all its windows boarded up. He’d only caught the sight across the graveyard and through the trees because he’d been looking so intently. Triumphant, he said, “That’s a hidden party if I’ve ever seen one!” and carefully drove the car between the headstones to reach the improvised parking area.
I climbed out with trepidation. Even up close, the century-old church looked dilapidated, dark, and abandoned. “Come on, this is too much.”
Ted wasn’t having it. He ran right up and pushed open the front door—and bright light and the sounds of electronic games burst forth. In a moment, he was gone, and I was left to step across the high grass alone. The fact that there was actually a hidden casino here lifted my spirits a little; maybe it was all just a gimmick to encourage people to drink and gamble more.
Funny—it still sounded quiet and looked dark until the moment I cracked the door open.
The light and noise swallowed me, and I blinked repeatedly until my eyes and ears adjusted. I was almost disappointed to find that the expansive place within was exactly the same as any of the casinos Ted had made us visit in Vegas last year. Vaguely old timey red and gold carpets ran lush under warm lighting, and drunk businessmen and their accompanying younger dates played at scattered locations throughout. An old lady glared at me, defending her slot machine, and pulled the lever only after I moved past.
Finally relaxing, I shrugged. Whatever. We weren’t going to be robbed or stabbed here. This was still Napa Valley, after all.
In fact, they were rather accommodating. A wonderfully attractive waitress came by, said hello to me, and offered me a free drink on the house. I took it with bashful surprise.
Ted was already moving about the place to scout the best games and tables. I caught up to him, drink in hand, and he settled near a roulette table. “Let’s just watch for a bit,” he said quietly. “Make sure everything’s on the level. Hidden in a church like this, I doubt they stick to gaming commission codes.”
That made sense. We watched and listened for a bit, enjoying the taste of free drinks and the sight of pretty girls, as middle-aged businessmen won and lost with varying degrees of frequency. One pepper-haired Asian suit went on a lucky streak, getting the crowd all riled up—himself included. While onlookers shrieked with excitement, he bet it all.
He lost.
“Heh, seems legit,” Ted told me. “I’m gonna head over to the blackjack tables for a minute.” And he moved off to begin playing.
“That was everything I had,” the Asian businessman said, dismayed. The two girls that had been clinging to his arms disengaged and began to look disinterested. Hurriedly, he made a motion to a casino manager, and the well-dressed but subtly subservient facilitator brought him a small suitcase. It clicked open with a rush of air, and I watched as the unlucky gambler pulled out bundled stacks of blue dollar bills.
That was odd. They were American dollars—same faces, designs, and everything—just dark blue instead of green. Was this fake money? Some sort of in-house system? Come to think of it, I saw no chips, just money. If these were the replacement for chips, why all the care to make them so similar to real dollars?
The gambler in question did not have the same qualms. He gladly placed the stacks on the table. The crowd grew energized again, and the girls began showing him attention once more.
Feeling a little strange, I moved off, seeking Ted. I found him at the blackjack table as he won a hand.
Grinning, he pumped a fist. “I like this place. Come on, play.”
“I don’t have any money for this,” I told him, sheepish.
“Here’s some.” He handed me a hundred dollar bill. I took it and sat, but secretly stashed the hundred and pulled the last of my own cash reserves from my wallet. As I always did, I would return his money back to him when he wasn’t looking. He never made me feel bad about it, and he had a high-paying job besides, but I just couldn’t stomach leeching off of someone else like that.
We played a few hands while still enjoying free drinks; I drank slower to remain soberish, but Ted guzzled away, having the time of his life. He lost quite a few hands, but played well, and actually started accumulating more money than he’d come in with. I, in contrast, lost all of my meager cash rather quickly.
Upon the loss of my last dollar, a suited man with slicked-back hair and a politician’s grin approached and leaned down between us, an arm on the back edge of each of our chairs. He spoke with a thick Middle Eastern accent, although his skin was pale enough that it was uncertain what region he was from. “Gentlemen, welcome. I don’t think I’ve seen you grace our establishment before. I am Malcom.”
“Nice to meet you,” Ted said. “This place is great. Love the free drinks.”
“Yes,” Malcolm said with a widening grin. “A small expense in the face of a casino’s profits. I am not a greedy man.”
“So you’re the owner?” I asked, not wanting to be left out.
“Yes, but think of me as your friend.” He finally moved back and stood upright. His gaze shifted to me. “I see you are out of money. Would you like to keep playing?” He motioned a manager over, and a briefcase was opened before me, complete with the stacks of blue dollar bills I’d seen before.
I glanced over awkwardly.
Ted was suspicious, but open to the idea. “What are these?”
“They represent debt,” Malcolm said graciously.
“Interesting.” Ted looked to me. “You should do it, Ryan.”
But that was not my name. “I think I’m alright, Jason,” I replied. What did he have in mind? I imagined he was planning to use these blue dollars, if needed, and then slip out. They couldn’t make us pay back a debt if they had no idea who we were.
Accepting my refusal, Malcolm ordered the suitcase closed and withdrew. “Good luck, gentlemen.”
I was left with a chill and a shiver.
From then on, I could only sit and watch as Ted gambled, talked up girls, and had a good time. The free drinks were no longer offered to me, and, indeed, none of the patrons or employees would so much as look at me. I should have noticed, but, again, my life was often lonely. I simply accepted it.
We moved from game to game, eventually ending up back at roulette, and Ted soon found himself in a situation we had witnessed earlier: energized crowd, streak of lucky wins, and a potential for a huge payoff. Despite my whispered warnings, he bet everything he had. The ball bounced, the numbers were called, and I sighed.
He’d lost.
Malcolm returned with a grin I imagined to be rather hungry, and the suitcase was offered to Ted.
Someone in the crowd squeezed my forearm in warning, but by the time I looked, it was impossible to tell who had done it. “Don’t. Let’s go home.”
“Come on, Ryan!” he shouted back. I could tell he still intended to rip off the establishment. “Let’s have some fun!” Reaching down, he eagerly pulled out two armfuls of blue dollar stacks, most of which he pawned off on me. I held them as he bet blue money on another roll. It might have been my imagination, but the stacks felt subtly warm.
He won—thankfully—but that quickly led to more bets, and I watched with a sinking feeling as my load of blue dollars shrank. The eyes of the crowd were upon us very intently now, and Malcolm seemed to be staring solely at Ted—grinning only when Ted looked his way.
“We should go,” I said again, but Ted ignored me.
There were a hundred opportunities to leave, but Ted took none of them. At long last, his final blue dollar went to the house. At that point, he whispered his intent to me, and I took off running after him a heartbeat later. I made it to the door and burst into the cool night air, but Ted remained just within.
“What are you doing?” I shouted to him. “Get out here!”
He seemed horrified. He stared down at his feet as they toed the red-and-gold carpet’s edge. “I can’t! I can’t leave!”
Malcolm approached calmly behind Ted, flanked by two suited managers.
Sensing something was wrong, I leapt forward and kept the church door from closing—but I made sure to remain just outside. “Malcolm, what the hell is this?”
The grinning man gave a small laugh. “I told you that my money was a form of debt. People like your friend here never listen. They think that they can cheat the house. Perhaps that would be possible if the house, in this case, were not a demon. But it is—I am—and he is now indebted.”
I stared up at him, trembling, but it seemed that I was not in direct danger. The next question was obvious. “What does he owe?”
“The same thing that is always owed,” Malcolm told me, his grin widening along his cheeks in a starkly inhuman manner. “Each blue dollar represented a portion of his soul. If even one remained, there was a chance he might win it all back, and more, thus I would not technically own him. With not even one blue dollar left, he has no chance of escape. He is mine.”
Looking past him, I saw the patrons and the employees watching us. I understood: they were all his. The Asian businessman I had seen gambling had been one of us, free, but no longer. I looked back to Malcolm, thinking about his explanation of chance. “So you operate by rules then?”
“Of course. I am a demon, rule-bound by nature. This type of thing must be enacted fairly.”
Ted still struggled with the invisible threshold, his eyes on me, his expression desperate.
“How do I get him out?” I asked, my pulse racing. If the roles had been reversed, I was sure Ted would have had a plan, but I had no idea what to do.
Malcolm laughed softly for a full five seconds before answering. “There is nothing you can do except leave. To buy back even a single blue bill, he must have money. He has no money, therefore he cannot buy back the single blue bill required. Believe me when I tell you that this is not my establishment’s—how do you Americans say?—first rodeo.”
Ted began screaming, but a gesture from Malcolm silenced him. Ted continued moving and opening his mouth, certainly, but no noise came out.
Heart thudding in my chest hard enough that I feared I might pass out, I reached in my back pocket and slipped out the hundred dollar bill. “How many of his blue dollars will this get me?”
“It must be his money, not yours,” Malcolm replied, his expression uncertain for the first time since I’d seen him.
“It is his!” I shouted. “He gave it to me to hold!”
A manager whispered in Malcolm’s ear, and a frustrated sigh followed. “At current exchange rates, that hundred will purchase twenty-one of his blue bills.”
The other manager opened the suitcase, showing twenty-one loose bills, and I scooped them up before dropping the hundred in their place. Without warning, Ted’s screams became audible again, and he fell forward into the graveyard with me. Grabbing him by instinct, I kept him from falling completely down, and Malcolm stood staring at us with anger. Now that his careful veneer was fading, I could see ghastly undertones in his skin, and the pale outlines of numerous gnarled horns on his head—and on the heads of the managers beside him.
Ted accepted the twenty-one blue dollars from me and stood, slowly recovering his wits and breath. “Jesus, they had me.” He gripped my shoulder. “You got me out! You got me out! You always do. Thank you, thank you.”
I nodded and began backing away from that unhallowed place. “There was no way we could have known.”
“Care to make another wager?” the demon at the church door asked. “Now that you know what we are, there are greater winnings available. How would you care for immortality? Perhaps the power of flight? Or precognition? We can gift you these things, assuming you win enough.”
Ted stopped following me and turned to look back at Malcolm’s charred face.
A terrible sinking feeling overcame me. “Don’t!”
“Imagine how much we could win if we could see the future!” Ted said, still frozen in place. “We’d be set for life!”
“He’s lying!” I shouted.
“I cannot lie,” Malcolm replied with amusement. “You know this.”
“I’ll just bet twenty,” Ted called back. “I’ll still have the one, so I’ll still be free!”
I kept screaming, but Ted staggered toward that open door and pushed within. Fully gruesome now, Malcolm gave me a maggot-filled smile—and the door shut of its own accord.
Opening and closing the rotted wood a few times, I discovered nothing but a musty and abandoned church within. I could also now see that the cars parked outside were rusted and ancient, with models ranging from modern to classic. Those that had come here over the last fifty years had never left. Surely I wasn’t the first to turn down the blue soul money? How had I never heard of—
The old man at the bar.
His bitterness.
He’d lost somebody here, to this place, to Malcolm, and Ted had been an obviously doomed soul from the start. Telling him had simply sped up the inevitable.
I began the long walk home. I was alone now, but that was no longer my biggest fear. I’d done my part. I’d pulled a lucky last-minute move and saved Ted from a demon uniquely suited to his flaws—but he’d chosen to go back anyway. There was nothing I could do but go on alone and wonder when my own particular brand of demon would fall across my path. On that day, I, too, would be lost. Thus was born Malcolm’s demonic confidence: even with friends to offer one last chance at escape, we are all human.
We are each our own doom.
submitted by M59Gar to nosleep [link] [comments]

Best Roulette Strategy To Win 2020  Dozen and Split Bets  Roulette Tricks to Win Every Spin ROULETTE DOZEN BETTING STRATEGY Roulette low progression betting system with a dozens and colors strategy. ROULETTE Dozen Strategy ROULETTE Strategy for Dozen

Betting on any one of the three dozen grid boxes is very easy to do and these options are clearly marked out on the Roulette table. 1 st dozen = 1 to 12; 2 nd dozen = 13 to 24; 3 rd dozen = 25 to 36; One of the biggest advantages to this betting strategy option, besides how easy it is, is the fact that you automatically cover one third of the table in a single bet. The most common betting systems that players use for roulette are geared towards Red and Black, but after that it is probably the Dozens and Columns. To cover them quickly, there are three different Dozen bets on the roulette table marked as: 1st 12, 2nd 12 and 3rd 12. There’s also 3 Column bets marked on the table as 2 to 1. Betting on Dozens and Columns is great. There are so many combinations on can use to beat the roulette. Bet only one Dozen or two dozens or Two dozens and two Columns simultaneously or even… Well, the possibilities are limitless. Follow the last two dozens that hit? Or bet for the sleeper column and the […] The most common betting systems that players use for roulette are geared towards Red and Black, but after that, it is probably the Dozens and Columns. To cover them quickly, there are three different Dozen bets on the roulette table marked as 1st 12, 2nd 12 and 3rd 12. There are also 3 Column bets marked on the table as 2 to 1. Dozen Betting Strategy is quite simple. In an online casino, roulette is controlled by a random number generator (RNG), and in a land-based casino, roulette is subject to probability theory.. The essence of the Dozen betting strategy is as follows. The chances of winning a certain number in roulette are small, but dozens are constantly changing.

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Best Roulette Strategy To Win 2020 Dozen and Split Bets Roulette Tricks to Win Every Spin

On this roulette strategy, I will go on low progression betting system, with 2 dozen and one color. This strategy goes from low winnings to low losses, and I will try to get a small profit The simplicity of this strategy is easy to execute in online Roulette you nend to put all your bet in quick time you can't manage 8-10 place in 15 second so this system allows you to put just 3 ... roulette betting rules roulette betting tips roulette betting on 2 dozens roulette betting pattern roulette betting strategies that work roulette betting system 99.4 success rate roulette betting ... Roulette This is the best roulette Winning system is played ever. The system works well in online Roulette as well as live casino games. Predicting the next number is impossible in Roulette but we ... Here on this roulette game, I will bet on two dozens, with the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 betting sequence. This is not a very good strategy in case of a serie of loosing numbers ...