I keep hearing "Deflation before massive inflation"
So what can we do about it? Any ideas are welcome. It has a lot of "what if's"... It depends how tax and law play out with it.Historically speaking:
Commodities and things people use every day become expensive,
Luxury goods fall in value.
Inflation wipes out all savings, there is often a rush to spend money while it has value. "Bank runs" and "Bank Bail in's" where the bank will limit your withdraws to prop up the bank temporarily. Sure here the FDIC may insure it, but its nothing if your money is losing value by the hour and it takes months to get it actually into your hands. And many countries have issues with a person holding cash..."You're automatically a drug dealer! >your money is now drug money! >Asset forfeiture" ...I cant count how many times this happens.
People yell " physical gold and silver!" ... yeah, those do hold value well, however the gov does tax that at 26-30% when sold, and will often ban its use in dire times. ....huge grey / pirate area.
Mining stock is the same in the tax range, and nearly anything you "resell", imposed taxes and royalties can be added leaving you high and dry.
Precious metal holdings have been banned in the past, even here in the USA...aka Government confiscation.
Nationalization of Precious metals mines have happened.
Edit: I now realize there are many ways stocks can play out.
Real Estate will raise in value hugely, However so will the taxes, longer contracts at fixed rates benefits the lendee.
Things that you use, if you can stock or invest in it.
-I stock bulk diesel for my cars while following historical averages to buy cheap.
-Rotating food stock
-Extra maintenance items, including the big things like a roof on your home if its coming time. Not joking I have a spare water heater and backup heating options, along with minor parts and filters to fix them. Same with cars and engines, (spark plugs, filters (all different filters), oil, cheap sensors that usually go bad and are only 4-10$ each, 1-2 extra alternator per vehicle, belts, mowing belts, bearings, grease, ... and I've literally had to use everything on that list and reorder.)
Things that directly pay you back or are insurance. Saving money is making money.
-Security, Locks, Alarms, Cameras, people steal.
A deep freezer for instance can stock food you use and buy on sale.
Solar energy and solar heating supplements energy you use anyways
Rainwater can be collected and used rather than buying from a source.
A cooking gadget vs eating out.
Tools and learning to fix things vs hire.
House insulation.-Better insulative windows, and sealing.
Bidet on toilet (lol serious though...)
Your education can be a huge one, not just for prepping but also in your work.
Things that prevent rot, fire, flood / humidity, or failure. Humidity is a silent killer to many preps. (water sump pumps, dehumidifiers, leak prevention, fire extinguishers / sprinklers, )
Things that last and can be resold on the street if need be. This list can be huge, you have to balance it with liquidity, what you use but can also sell before it goes bad / fails.
Honestly and unpopularly, Things that can avoid tax when the price inflates out of control and you wish to sell. The numbers can be so distorted in both price and taxing of income. Eggs for instance, in many countries from Weimar Republic of Germany to Venezuela, increased 15,000%+, So that $15,000 egg / $150,000 dozen that you sold from your chickens gets taxed in the highest tax bracket? (which can go into the 90% range if rules aren't changed for the massive inflation) Taxes usually try raising during this and many companies flee the country, add robots / machines, or downsize as the result of more taxes making work and jobs even more of an issue. .. honestly history shows the whole thing being a cluster-duck in so many ways. Alternative currencies pop up, actual trades happen and go unreported, crime even shifts when things get too bad, again with Venezuela, I read that criminals were moving to other countries because the people were too poor to even make anything robbing! You can also have a business where you write off so many things that you would use anyways. The numbers get... err... odd, play the game.
It is usually around 10 years of chaos before things start "stabilizing." and even then, so much damage has occured.
This is a serious thing that has happened to once prosperous people / civilizations in the past...don't think you're exempt, especially when the numbers are at historical limits in many countries. Invest in yourself and what you use regularly.
DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir). Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance. Inspiration Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out. A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing. Data Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors. Google Search Trends \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months \"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months Brokerage data Robinhood SPY holders \"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement TD Ameritrade Excerpt Media cnbc.com Alexa rank CNBC viewership & rankings wallstreetbets comments / day investing comments / day Analysis What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well. However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so. SPX daily Rationale Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market. Sentiment & Magic Crayons As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality. From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities. SPY daily Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data. There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend. This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level. VIX Daily Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so. Putting Everything Together Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180. tldr; we've reached the top EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested. 5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level 5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing. 5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts 5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play. 5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30. 5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit. 5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30. 5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again 5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p 5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend. 5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there. 5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
COVID-19's Economic Impact in Canada: a collection of stats on jobs losses, investment returns, consumer confidence, interest rates, housing, and future forecasts
Over the past few weeks, the COVID crisis has hurt the Canadian economy and the average Canadian's financial situation in more ways than one. I tried to tally up the damage by going through the info that's been published thus far (by Stats Can, the Bank of Canada, the Parliamentary Budget Officer, news sites, etc.), and have put together some visualizations and commentary on the data. In summary:
Stats Can's March labour force survey showed that 3.1 million Canadians had their job situation impacted negatively during the survey period (March 15 - March 21); that's ~16% of Canada's total labour force
1 million Canadians lost their jobs; 0.8 million had a job but didn't work any hours; 1.3 million had a job but worked less than half of their usual hours
Canadians worked 15% fewer hours in the month of March vs February; the impact was highest in Quebec (-19%), and lowest in Newfoundland and Labrador (-8.4%)
As of April 13th, nearly 6 million Canadians have applied for CERB or EI (reported by the CBC)
Investments (2020 year-to-date returns)
Stock markets are down by roughly 15 - 20% (TSX Composite is down by 17%)
Bond markets are roughly flat
Gold is up by 14% (as investors tend to flock to gold in times of economic uncertainty)
Bitcoin is down by 4%
Canadian oil prices are down by ~70%
Google search volume in Canada for the terms "recession" and "layoff" are the highest on record, even surpassing the search volume during the 2008 recession
The Conference Board of Canada's "Index of Consumer Confidence" registered the largest monthly decline ever in March
The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate 3 separate times in March, dropping the rate from 1.75% to 0.25%
The rate hasn't been this low since the 2008 recession
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board showed a 16% decline in home sale volumes in the Greater Toronto Area in the second half of March
RBC Economics expects that “Canada’s housing market will slow to a crawl this spring”, and that housing prices will face a temporary set-back — with an estimated 2.9% year-over-year price decline in the second half of 2020
Post-COVID Economic Forecasts
On April 9th, Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer released a “scenario analysis” report on the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy.
It’s estimated that the federal government’s responses to the COVID crisis will have a total cost of over $105 billion
As a result, Canada’s budget deficit in the 2020-21 fiscal year will rise to $185 billion, or roughly 8.5% of GDP
Canada’s budget deficit hasn’t been this high (based on % of GDP) since the 1984-85 fiscal year
In 2020, Canada will have real GDP growth of -5.1%, and an unemployment rate of 12.4%; for context, Canada's real GDP only declined by 3.3% in 2009
The number of unemployed Canadians will rise from 1.2 million (Q4 2019) to 3.1 million (Q3 2020)
These points are addressed in chart form at the link above. You can download a spreadsheet which contains all of the source data / charts. There's also a summary of the emergency response initiatives announced by the federal government (CERB, GST credit, CCB one-time payment, the 75% wage subsidy, etc.), and thoughts about steps that Canadians can take today to improve their financial situation. I'll continue to update the page as new economic stats roll-in, and as the government announces new initiatives. I'd love to hear your thoughts about COVID's economic impact in Canada. Also, please feel free to share any other stats, articles, or reports that you think are relevant!
Accumulation by institutions: Overlay the NASDAQ chart over bitcoin and you see incredible increase in correlation since November 2019. What has happened here? Simple, the retail investors/miners who have been selling for the last 3 years have been selling to institutions, rather than fellow retail investors. Bitcoin did not die, it was just entered a bear market where money traded hands from retail and into institution's hands.
Buy the rumor sell the news: digital dollar. For those of you who do not know, there has been strong bipartisan interest in the United States creating their own digital currency, using blockchain technology. There was legislation hidden for the creation of this digital dollar inside one of the early stimulus bills that almost passed.
Technical analysis: If it bitcoin breaks 10.5k, expect an explosive price pump to 14k, and I honestly don't think 14k will be very strong resistance, I honestly would expect the most serious level of resistance will be around 19-20k. If bitcoin fails to break 10.5k, expect a shakedown to the 20 week moving average which currently is around 8.2k.
Gold fundamentals are bitcoin fundamentals, both are stronger than ever: The idea of having a currency that is finite, and divorced from any centralized bank or government is super attractive in the post covid world we live in today. Countries have getting a little too comfortable pressing the print button to print their way to riches. On the very long time frames, birth birthrates are freefalling on the global level, especially among the wealthiest countries whose currencies' supply are inflating exponentially to record highs. The supply of unbacked fiat will at some point surpass the demand and we will see the age of centralized banks come to an end.
Bitcoin has already overtaken silver: Bitcoin has a market cap about 4 times larger than silver, and gold has a market cap about 75 times larger than bitcoin. Bitcoin has plenty of room to grow in this niche, and the digitization of it's nature could allow for it to expand in many areas where gold can not.
The inflation rate gets cut in half every four years: it's current yearly inflation rate is 1.80%. In four years, the inflation rate will be approximately 0.9%. In 8 years, the inflation rate will be at ~0.45%, etc... Even if the demand stays the same for gold and bitcoin, bitcoin will overtake gold's market cap in a few decades just by looking at the stock to flow ratio of both commodities.
What A Day: Stitt Down And Shut Up by Sarah Lazarus & Crooked Media (07/15/20)
"If it’s Goya, it has to be good." - Ivanka Trump, violating federal ethics rules
Bean Here Before
With hospitals filling up and businesses shutting back down across wide swaths of the country, the Trump administration seems to have no pandemic strategy beyond sowing confusion and flogging beans.
The U.S. confirmed 67,417 new coronavirus cases on Tuesday, a new daily record. Cases have increased in 41 states over the past two weeks, Texas and Florida each recorded record numbers of coronavirus deaths yesterday, and an influential model now projects a national death toll of 224,000 by November 1.
From here on out, we’ll have to take those updates with a (chunkier) grain of salt. The Trump administration’s move to cut the CDC out of hospital-data collection means that all COVID-19 patient information will be sent to a database that isn’t open to the public. That reporting system is just as cumbersome as the CDC’s and doesn’t solve any of its real problems, but it sure does raise questions about whether researchers, modelers, and health officials will have access to the data they rely on to make projections and public-health decisions. (It also means a multimillion-dollar contract for the private firm TeleTracking, which we look forward to learning is owned by Jared Kushner’s frat brother’s father-in-law or whatever.)
Administration officials have also doubled down on their campaign to publicly discredit Dr. Anthony Fauci. “He has been wrong about everything I have interacted with him on,” wrote White House trade advisor Peter Navarro in a USA Today op-ed, omitting that his favorite expert is literally a guy he made up. White House officials weakly disavowed the op-ed and claimed Navarro went rogue, which is reportedly (you may wanna sit down) a lie. Fauci pushed back on the attacks in an interview with The Atlantic: “I cannot figure out in my wildest dreams why they would want to do that.” An evergreen take.
Meanwhile, life comes at you fast.
Gov. Kevin Stitt (R-OK), who attended President Trump’s rally in Tulsa and rarely wears a mask at public gatherings, has tested positive for coronavirus. “I was pretty shocked that I was the first governor to get it,” said Stitt, calmly reaching both hands towards a hot stove. Stitt has resisted a statewide mask order, and after testing positive said that he’s still "not thinking about a mask mandate at all."
Twenty-five states plus Washington, DC, have now issued mask mandates, with Alabama becoming the latest to do so on Wednesday. Walmart announced that customers will be required to wear masks at all U.S. stores, which could have a ripple effect among other retailers—Kroger has already followed its lead. CDC Director Robert Redfield said on Tuesday that the U.S. could get the pandemic under control within two months if every American wore a mask; that feat would also likely require the federal government to take on a role beyond “hour-long presidential rants in the Rose Garden,” but masks would be a start.
The Trump administration condemned the country to a second surge of infections by refusing to coordinate a national response, leaving even the best state leaders to adopt piecemeal solutions by trial and error. Rather than try a different tack the second time around, Trump has committed to undermining widely trusted health experts and hiding the data that makes even those local decisions possible.
Look No Further Than The Crooked Media
Last week the Adopt a State program sent out our first Call to Action emails, and (without a hint of bias here) Florida crushed it. Team Florida has already raised upwards of $42k to support a Virtual Voter Registration Program—that will help reach 400,000 Floridians, which could cover Trump's margin of victory almost four times over. We'll be sending each state team new calls to action every week via email, so keep checking your inbox and getting those actions done. And if you haven’t already signed up, head on over to https://votesaveamerica.com/adopt and join the thousands of volunteers looking to flip some swing states.
Under The Radar
The new head of the Postal Service has implemented major operational changes that could slow down mail delivery. Postmaster General and Trump donor Louis DeJoy instructed employees to leave mail behind at distribution centers as needed to avoid delaying mail carriers from completing their routes, a change from postal workers’ traditional mandate to not leave letters behind for the next day. DeJoy cited the agency’s need to cut costs, but the decision could chase away more customers and put the Postal Service in a deeper financial hole. It could also prove disastrous in November, when voters could lose access to mail-in ballots due to slow delivery. The Treasury Department has continued to hold a $10 billion emergency loan hostage until USPS gives in to Trump’s political agenda, and Congress has yet to provide additional funding.
Fatal drug overdoses are likely surging during the pandemic. Drug deaths in the U.S. reached record numbers in 2019 after falling the year before, and the pandemic may be worsening the resurgence. A report in May found overdose rates have increased by an average of 20 percent across six states in 2020, and recent drug tests have found a substantial increase in illicit drug use, as well as a geographic spread of fentanyl. Overdoses were increasing before the pandemic, but it’s definitely not helping: Social isolation puts addicts at greater risk, treatment centers have been disrupted, and people who have overdosed are more likely to avoid emergency rooms out of fear of infection.
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Is That Hope I Feel?
SHE’S OUT OF THE HOSPITAL. Leaders in Asheville, NC, voted unanimously to provide reparations to the city’s Black residents. Virginia has become the first state to adopt statewide emergency workplace safety standards in response to the coronavirus. British artist Marc Quinn erected a statue of a Black Lives Matter protester in Bristol, on the plinth that used to hold a statue of slave trader Edward Colston.
I applied price discovery algorithms to 5 Min OHLCV data from Bitmex and CME contracts and Bitstamp, Coinbase, HitBTC, Kraken, Poloniex, Binance, and OkEx BTCUSD/BTCUSDT markets from March 2016 to May 2020. Some exciting results I got was:
Before the 2017/18 bull run, Bitfinex dominated the price discovery process. They started the run. But as the price increased, trades on other exchanges, Binance and Bitstamp played a more dominant role in leading the price up.
Since then, CME Contracts and Bitmex contracts have had an increasing role in price discovery. Today Bitmex and CME Contracts play the most substantial role in determining the direction of Bitcoin price.
In 2020, market dominance by Bitmex has been negatively correlated with price. Dominance by Bitfinex, Huobi and OkCoin has had high positive correlation with price.
Price discovery is the overall process of setting the price of an asset. Price discovery algorithms identify the leader exchanges whose traders define the price. Two approaches are most famous for use in Price Discovery. Gonzalo and Granger (1995) and Hasbrouck (1995). But they assume random walk, and a common efficient price. I do not feel comfortable assuming random walk and common efficient price in Bitcoin Markets. So I used this little know method by De Blasis (2019) for this analysis. This work assumes that "the fastest price to reflect new information releases a price signal to the other slower price series." I thought this was valid in our market. It uses Markov Chains to measure Price Discovery. Without going into the mathematical details the summary steps used was:
Data is first grouped into a daily interval. Then inside each daily interval's 5-minute candles, the change in prices between the current time t and previous time t-1 is calculated. The difference across the same time t across all exchanges in a given day is juxtaposed to create an initial matrix.
The initial matrix is used to create a Transition Matrix, which measures the probability of price changing to something else at time t+1 for its state at t.
Then other Markov Chain based algorithms are used to measure the influence an exchange at time t had over all other exchanges' price movement at time t+1 individually.
Reduction and normalization is done to this data. In the end, each exchange receives a single number that sums to 1 for a given day.
De Blasis (2019) names this number Price Leadership Share (PLS). High PLS indicates a large role in price discovery. As the sum of the numbers is 1, they can be looked at as a percentage contribution. I recommend reading the original paper if you are interested to know more about the mathematical detail.
Andersen (2000) argues that 5 Minute window provides the best trade-off between getting enough data and avoiding noise. In one of the first work on Bitcoin's Price Discovery, Brandvold et al. 2015 had used 5M window. So I obtained 5M OHLCV data using the following sources:
Poloniex, Bitfinex, Binance and HitBTC: Exchange's API through CCXT.
CME: Okay, this was was supposed to be tricky and expensive. I broke a TOS and scraped the data for free, removing the expensive part from the equation. I will not go into detail about where I scraped this data.
Futures data are different from other data because multiple futures contract trades at the same time. I formed a single data from the multiple time series by selecting the nearest contract until it was three days from expiration. I used the next contract when the contract was three days from expiration. This approach was advocated by Booth et al ( 1999 )
I can't embed the chart on reddit so open this https://warproxxx.github.io/static/price_discovery.html In the figure above, each colored line shows the total influence the exchange had towards the discovery of Bitcoin Price on that day. Its axis is on the left. The black line shows a moving average of the bitcoin price at the close in Bitfinex for comparison. The chart was created by plotting the EMA of price and dominance with a smoothing factor of 0.1. This was done to eliminate the noise. Let's start looking from the beginning. We start with a slight Bitfinex dominance at the start. When the price starts going up, Bitfinex's influence does too. This was the time large Tether printing was attributed to the rise of price by many individuals. But Bitfinex's influence wanes down as the price starts rising (remember that the chart is an exponential moving average. Its a lagging indicator). Afterward, exchanges like Binance and Bitstamp increase their role, and there isn't any single leader in the run. So although Bitfinex may have been responsible for the initial pump trades on other exchanges were responsible for the later rally. CME contracts were added to our analysis in February 2018. Initially, they don't have much influence. On a similar work Alexandar and Heck (2019) noted that initially CBOE contracts had more influence. CBOE later delisted Bitcoin futures so I couldn't get that data. Overall, Bitmex and CME contracts have been averaging around 50% of the role in price discovery. To make the dominance clear, look at this chart where I add Bitmex Futures and Perp contract's dominance figure to create a single dominance index. There bitmex leads 936 of the total 1334 days (Bitfinex leads 298 days and coinbase and binance get 64 and 6 days). That is a lot. One possible reason for this might be Bitmex's low trading fee. Bitmex has a very generous -0.025% maker fee and price discovery tend to occur primarily in the market with smaller trading costs (Booth et al, 1999). It may also be because our market is mature. In mature markets, futures lead the price discovery.
Table 1: Days Lead
Out of 1334 days in the analysis, Bitmex futures leads the discovery in 571 days or nearly 43% of the duration. Bitfinex leads for 501 days. Bitfinex's high number is due to its extreme dominance in the early days.
Table 2: Correlation between the close price and Exchange's dominance index
Binance, Huobi, CME, and OkCoin had the most significant correlation with the close price. Bitmex, Coinbase, Bitfinex, and Bitstamp's dominance were negatively correlated. This was very interesting. To know more, I captured a yearwise correlation.
Table 3: Yearwise Correlation between the close price and Exchange's dominance index Price movement is pretty complicated. If one factor, like a dominant exchange, could explain it, everyone would be making money trading. With this disclaimer out of the way, let us try to make some conclusions. This year Bitfinex, Huobi, and OkEx, Tether based exchanges, discovery power have shown a high correlation with the close price. This means that when the traders there become successful, price rises. When the traders there are failing, Bitmex traders dominate and then the price is falling. I found this interesting as I have been seeing the OkEx whale who has been preceding price rises in this sub. I leave the interpretation of other past years to the reader.
My analysis does not include market data for other derivative exchanges like Huobi, OkEx, Binance, and Deribit. So, all future market's influence may be going to Bitmex. I did not add their data because they started having an impact recently. A more fair assessment may be to conclude this as the new power of derivative markets instead of attributing it as the power of Bitmex. But Bitmex has dominated futures volume most of the time (until recently). And they brought the concept of perpetual swaps.
There is a lot in this data. If you are making a trading algo think there is some edge here. Someday I will backtest some trading logic based on this data. Then I will have more info and might write more. But, this analysis was enough for to shift my focus from a Bitfinex based trading algorithm to a Bitmex based one. It has been giving me good results. If you have any good ideas that you want me to write about or discuss further please comment. If there is enough interest in this measurement, I can setup a live interface that provides the live value.
For Trading JULY 16th GS Earnings a Beat Prop-Trading Helps NASDAQ Still Weaker TWTR HACKED Today’s market got off to a decent start with the futures indicating a gain of about 500+, but it didn’t live up to its promise, falling back and reaching up “only” 428 and making that high by 9:45 and trading sideways to lower and making a low around 12:15 at + just 50 before turning back up to make a lower high +240 and selling off again, but making a late gain back to +310 before the last little selloff to close +227.51 (.85%), NASDAQ +61.91 (.59%), S&P 500 +29.04 (.91%), the Russell +50.05 (3.5%) and the big winner, DJ Transports +424.96 (4.56%). Market internals were strong with the NYSE A/D 5:1 and NAZ 4:1 with slightly higher volume than yesterday. The DJIA was 25:5 with the big gainer BA, +55 and UNH the big loser -31 DP’s. There was plenty of good news from the Beige Book gains, Industrial production +5.4% v 4.6 est., import / export gains and mortgage apps +5.1%. Tomorrow we have Initial and continuing claims, retail sales, Phili Fed, NAHB housing and business inventories. Plenty to obsess about! Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/hEiml2wDNeA SECTORS: Goldman Sachs (GS) reported great numbers, buoyed by proprietary trading and while the stock traded as high as $225.24, it couldn’t hold those gains and finished $216.90 +2.89 (1.35%). So, as I mentioned in tonight’s video (link above) the airlines and cruise lines were propelled higher by the news from Moderna (MRNA) that their vaccine produces twice the antigens as those from patients that have recovered from the illness. MRNA finished $80.22 +5.18 (6.9%) after trading as high as $88.37. The airlines were AAL+1.87 (16%), DAL +2.49 (9.5%), LUV +.60 (2.2%), while the cruise lines were CCL +2.44 (16.2%), RCL +10.21 (21%), and NCLH +3.17 (20.6%). If I had to pick one that I’d go with, it would be none of these. I think the play will be in EXPE $90.23 +7.76 (9.4%) since people will need to book regardless of what they want to do or where they want to go. The TWTR hack of several high profile users, Obama, Biden, Bill Gates, Kanye West and Elon Musk was a crypto scam announcing a giveaway that required the sender to deposit .1 BTC in order to receive .2 BTC back…yeah, right…I’m so sure Joe Biden wants to double my money! And, the HOMERUN of the day was the Australian Biotech, Genetic Tech (GENE), whose “Severity Risk Test” was updated on a webinar. The stock was as low as $1.41 earlier this year and closed on Tuesday @ $2.26 and opened the day today @ 2.75 and ran up to $10.30 before closing $5.67 +3.41 (150.89%). Clearly a homerun! FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN +1.71, BGS -.27, FLO -.13, CPB -1.06, CAG -.37, MDLZ -.19, CALM -.14, JJSF +2.11, SAFM +1.77, HRL -.27, SJM -1.31 and PPC $16.53 +.30 (1.85%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +1.69, ABBV +1.60, REGN -8.49, ISRG +22.46, GILD -.44, MYL +.43, TEVA +.88, VRTX +1.28, BHC +1.25, INCY -.05, ICPT +1.93, LABU +4.17 and IBB $142.74 +2.48 (1.77%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.24, CGC +.81, CRON +.67, GWPH -3.99, ACB +1.11, CURLF +.10, KERN +.42, and MJ $13.64 +.38 (2.87%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +9.94, GD +2.64, TXT +1.05, NOC +5.21, BWXT +1.24, TDY +21.12, RTX +2.73 and ITA $165.19 +5.58 (3.5%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.39, JWN +1.12, KSS +1.88, DDS +1.73, WMT +.37, TGT +1.59, TJX +2.57, RL +4.23, UAA +.87, LULU +4.19, TPR +.95, CPRI +1.35 FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -5.74, AMZN -86.00, AAPL +.61, FB -.53, NFLX -.38, NVDA -8.78, TSLA -5.80, BIDU -.69, CMG +33.98, BABA +.25, CAT +2.62, BA +6.32, DIS +1.74, and XLK $107.64 +.58 (.54%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.54, JPM +.99, BAC +.52, MS +1.32, C +1.60, PNC +2.89, AIG +.76, TRV +.79, AXP +2.54, V +2.72 and XLF $24.15 +.47 (1.98%). OIL, $41.20 +.91. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and we finally did that today. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.38 +.79 (2.16%). GOLD $1,813.80 +.40. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,829.80. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market while we have been back in the Silver (SLV) calls @ $ .92 from Friday. Silver rallied from a down overnight session and the calls closed $1.40 +.12. We also added a GLD 7/24 170 call position @ $1.22 that finished $1.54 -05. BITCOIN: closed $9,190 -120. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.48 - .25 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading JULY 17th NFLX Misses, Poor Guidance NASDAQ Still Weaker ECONOMIC #S STRONG Today’s market got off to soft a start with the NASDAQ futures down as much (points, 2.4X percent) and all of the averages fell to the lows of the early trade in the first 15 minutes and the only one NOT to rally was the NASDAQ. It continued lower for another 2 hours and finally made it back to the high of the day around 1:30, although still down and fell to a new low by 3:00 but rallied into the close to finish -136.39 (.50%), NASDAQ -76.66 (.73%), S&P 500 -10.99 (.34%), the Russell -10.71 (.72%), and the DJ Transports +53.95 (.55%). The DJIA was 17:13 Down with the big losers being BA -63DP’s, AAPL -33, MSFT -29 and V -21 DP’S. The overall internals 7:6 down on the NYSE and 3:2 on the NASDAQ while volume was slightly lower. The early morning employment numbers were better with initial claims 1.3million and continuing claims 17.338. Retail sales gained 7.5% vs 5.2 expected, ex-autos and gas they were 6.7%. Business inventories were in-line at 2.3 and NAHB housing index was 72 +14 vs 62 expected. All in all, a good showing, even if the market didn’t react to the upside. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/kCN9QYyQnWc SECTORS: NFLX was the feature this afternoon with a disappointing report after the close. While they had a beat on earnings, it wasn’t as good as the “whisper number” and the forward guidance for Q3 was a major miss. The stock had closed $527.39 +4.13 (.79%) but immediately fell to $449.65 before bouncing back a bit to its current level of $473.00 -54.49 (10.33%). PPG reported with a beat on lowered expectations, always an issue for me, while the year over year sales were lower by 24%. Nonetheless, the stock, well off the March low of $70, closed 115.26 -.36 but rallied up to the current level of $120.02 +4.80 (4.17%). The airlines and cruise lines gave up all of yesterday’s pointless gains when the CDC said that there would be no cruise ships in U.S. waters until at least October. This sent the big 3 down with NCLH the big loser -16%, CCL -9.8% and RCL -7.6%. Airlines fared no better with AAL, who sent out 25,000 layoff warnings -7.4%, LUV -4.3%, DAL -4.7% and JBLU -4.6%. After the close AAL and JBLU announced a customer-share agreement to help in the Northeast. I can’t emphasize this enough, at least one or two of these companies will chapter. All of the equity and debt being raised will saddle these companies and mortgage all of their assets. It does not add anything to their ability to create earnings, but just to survive until things get back to “normal,” whatever that actually means. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.15, BGS +.35, FLO unch., CPB +.34, CAG -.15, MDLZ +.94, KHC +1.25, CALM -.39, JJSF +1.85, SAFM +1.38, HRL +.71, SJM +.20, PPC +.09, KR -.10, and PBJ $32.39 +.09 (.28%). BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -4.07, ABBV -.58, REGN -.53, ISRG -3.80, GILD -.24, MYL -.14, TEVA -.44, VRTX -4.55, BHC -.34, INCY -2.67, ICPT +1.43, LABU -2.10, and IBB $140.70 -1.92 (1.35%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.15, CGC -.06, CRON -.17, GWPH -.17, ACB -.73, CURLF -.18, KERN -.27, and MJ $13.35 -.29 (2.13%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +1.24, GD +2.25, TXT -.15, NOC +2.89, BWXT +.77, TDY +1/05, RTX -.84, and ITA $163.47 -1.72 (1.04%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M -.32, JWN -.17, KSS +.23, DDS +.42, WMT +.85, TGT +.27, TJX +.62, RL +.41, UAA +.05, LULU +.57, TPR -.22, CPRI +.10, and XRT $45.68 +.29 (.64%). FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -11.88, AMZN -42.84, AAPL -5.75, FB -.39, NFLX -43.68, NVDA -5.24, TSLA -57.97, BABA -6.21, BIDU -1.77, CMG -3.65, CAT +.19, BA -9.44, DIS -1.92, and XLK $106.31 -1.33 (1.24%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS -2.40, JPM +.28, BAC -.75, MS +1.48, C -.36, PNC +2.07, AIG +.78, TRV +1.36, AXP -1.28, V -3.11, and XLF $24.15 UNCH. OIL, $40.93 -.47. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and we finally did that today. The stocks were LOWER with XLE $37.21 -.17 (.45%). GOLD $1,800.30 -13.50. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,829.80. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market while we have been back in the Silver (SLV) calls @ $ .92 from Friday. Silver rallied from a down overnight session and the calls closed $1.10 -.30. We also added a GLD 7/24 170 call position @ $1.22 that finished $ .79 -.76. BITCOIN: closed $9,145 -45. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.31 - .16 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
Chainlink Price explodes - Reasons for the increase in LINK Price
Chainlink (LINK) is currently the most popular Defi project. The LINK rate has almost doubled in the past 3 weeks and hit a new all-time high of $ 8.48. As a result, the market capitalization rose briefly to over $ 2.5 billion and placed LINK in 8th place at CoinMarketCap. Of course, many are wondering how such a sharp rise in share prices could occur. https://preview.redd.it/8c4avufatsa51.png?width=337&format=png&auto=webp&s=5fa98b24c647e46df8fd75333bb62071e7499fbb Therefore, today we take a closer look at the possible reasons for the strong LINK Pump. If you are looking for cryptocurrency exchange with zero spot trading fees and Leverage trading engines that are ten times faster as compared to other cryptocurrency exchanges, VisitPhemex Exchange Basically, there are currently three main factors that have led to the LINK price increase. This includes the human psychology of pricing, high-profile partnerships, and a generally strong dynamic in the altcoin market. In addition, the increasing trading volume may have fueled the LINK price increase.
Then on July 6th, the time had come. The LINK price exceeded its previous record high of $ 5.31 and entered the pricing phase. This phase leads to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in most markets. The way up is clear and has no natural resistance that could be identified by technical chart analysis. Exactly this fact leads to the fact that many speculators get in and fear to miss something, are almost ready to pay any price. Therefore the current Chainlink price increase could be irrational and encounter a hard correction. Within the last seven days, after the old all-time high was broken, the price exploded by over 40%, rising from $ 5.31 to $ 8.48. The LINK price is currently around USD 7.76. The trading volume of LINK also rose to a level that has not been observed since April 2020. At that point, the bitcoins price recovered from its strong sell-off to around $ 3,750. During this period, the demand for cryptocurrencies from retail investors rose by leaps and bounds. Some analysts believe that the LINK price could rise to USD 10 in the next few weeks. However, this statement should be treated with caution.
Partnerships stimulate business
Over the course of this year, Chainlink has entered into many high-profile partnerships with companies in the crypto sector. Chainlink partnered with Nexo on July 8th. Nexo is a crypto credit company with around 800,000 users. Chainlink is to make its Oracle solutions available to the company. Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov said: We are excited to bring Chainlink's secure and reliable Oracle solutions to Nexo's popular credit platform so users can independently check the interest rate and collateral rates they should receive on the blockchain. Over the past two months, Chainlink has partnered with blockchain projects and companies like Matic Network and Hedera Hashgraph. Chainlink was also mentioned in a Google blog post entitled Building hybrid blockchain/cloud applications with Ethereum and Google Cloud. LINK does not miss a partnership and therefore remains on everyone's lips. Feels like every major crypto company is already included as a partner. This attracts a lot of attention and thus increases interest in Chainlink.
Altcoin and Defi Momentum bring LINK up
The Altcoin market has shown its strong side in recent weeks. While the Bitcoin price was rather sideways, some altcoins have exploded. Chainlink is just the tip of the iceberg. Many other projects, especially from the Defi Space, were able to grow properly. DeFi is on everyone's lips and investors are looking for the next “insider tip” to quickly make a few 100%. The crypto market is becoming increasingly irrational and money is being thrown from one project to the next. It is strongly reminiscent of 2017 and 2018 at the ICO hype. The strong hype and greed can be felt and makes a timely correction more and more likely. Many are already talking about an Altcoin Season and are currently seeing LINK and many other Altcoin projects outperforming BTC. How long the situation lasts and whether further profits can be achieved with LINK is in the stars. But you should keep in mind that Chainlink has increased by over 450% in the last 3-4 months. This could lead to strong correction.
New Lands, or New Eyes? | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - April 2020
The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes. - Marcel Proust, Remembrance of Things Past This is my forty-first portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $697 582 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $40 709 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $76 583 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 563 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $174 864 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $31 505 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $215 805 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 625 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 323 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 904 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $119 458 Secured physical gold – $19 269 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $12 234 Bitcoin – $158 360 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 144 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 435 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 471 Total portfolio value: $1 694 834 (+$127 888 or 8.2%) Asset allocation Australian shares – 40.9% (4.1% under) Global shares – 21.7% Emerging markets shares – 2.2% International small companies – 3.0% Total international shares – 26.9% (3.1% under) Total shares – 67.8% (7.2% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 4.5% International bonds – 9.9% Total bonds – 14.4% (0.6% under) Gold – 8.2% Bitcoin – 9.3% Gold and alternatives – 17.5% (7.5% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. Comments This month featured a sharp recovery in the overall portfolio, reducing the size of the large losses experienced over the previous month. The portfolio increased by over $127 000, representing a growth of 8.2 per cent, which is the largest month-on-month growth on record. This now puts the portfolio value significantly above the levels of a year ago. [Chart] The expansion in the value of the portfolio has occurred due to an increase in Australian and global equities markets, as well as substantial increases the price of Bitcoin. This is effectively the mirror image of the simultaneous negative movements last month. From a nadir of initial pessimism in late March, markets have generally moved upwards as debate continues about the path of a likely economic recession and recovery from Coronavirus impacts over the coming year. [Chart] First quarter distributions from the Australian and Global Shares ETFs (A200, VAS and VGS) were received this month. These were too early to fully reflect the sharp economic activity impacts of the Coronavirus and lockdown period on company earnings. Despite this, they were significantly down on a cents per unit basis on the equivalent distributions last year. Totalling around $2700, these distributions formed part of new contributions to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS). The rapid falls in equity have many participants looking forward to a return to normalcy, or at least more open to the pleasing ideas that nerves have been held in a market fall comparable to 2000 or 2008-09, and that markets now represent clear value. As discussed last month, there should be caution and some humility about these questions, if some historical perspective is taken. As an example, the largest global equity market in the world - the United States - remains at valuation levels well above those experienced in previous market lows. Portfolio alternatives - tracking changes under the surface A striking feature of the past year or so has been the expansion of the non-traditional or 'alternatives' components of gold and Bitcoin as a proportion of the overall portfolio. Currently, when combined these alternative assets form a greater part of the portfolio than at any point over the past two years. The chart below shows that since January 2019 the gold and Bitcoin component of the portfolio has lifted from around its long term target level of 10 per cent, to now make up over 17 per cent of the portfolio. In the space of the last four months alone, it has lifted from 13 per cent. [Chart] With no purchases of either gold or Bitcoin over the period, the growth in the chart is the result of two reinforcing factors: A substantial fall in the value of the equity portfolio - reaching nearly $200 000 since the recent February market peak has naturally and mathematically led to a commensurate increase the proportion of other assets. Increases in the value of gold and Bitcoin - have also played a role with a total appreciation of around $150 000 across the two assets over the past 16 months. In fact, the value gold holdings alone have increased by over 40 per cent since January last year. Further appreciation of either gold or Bitcoin prices, particularly if any further falls in equity markets occur, could easily place the portfolio in the same position as experienced in January 2018. At that time these alternative assets made up 1 in every 5 dollars of the portfolio, an unusual, and in that case temporary phenomenon. This represents a different portfolio and risk exposure than that envisaged in my portfolio investment plan. Yet, equally it is critical to recall what the circumstances would likely be for this to arise. Simultaneously high gold and Bitcoin prices are more likely to occur in a situation of severe capital market dislocation, or falling confidence. On the other hand, should confidence and equity market growth be restored, both of these portfolio components could fall back to lower levels. It is difficult to tell which state of the world will eventuate, a key reason for diversification across asset types. United States government debt is already at record levels - equivalent in real terms to levels last seen when it emerged out of the Second World War - despite no similar national effort having being undertaken. Future inflation can potentially partly manage this burden, however, the last sustained episode of persistently high inflation rates during the decade of the 1970s spelt negative real returns. Where investors expect future inflation or financially 'repressive' policies of inflation exceeding interest rates, the economic growth required to 'grow out' of debt can be affected. At this point, my inclination is to address this circumstance gradually through time by re-balancing of distributions and new contributions, rather than to realise capital gains by selling assets at one, or several, points in time. Chasing down the lines - falling average spending in lockdown Since the implementation of lockdown restrictions, average credit card expenditure has fallen by nearly 30 per cent. This has taken credit card expenditure to lower than any similar period in the past six years. Partly as a result of this - as the chart below shows - a new development is occurring. The previously fairly steady card expenses line (red) is now starting to bend down towards, or 'chase', the rolling average distributions line (in blue). [Chart] The declining distributions line is a result of some previous high distributions gradually falling outside of the data 'window' for the rolling three-year comparison of distributions and expenditure. This intriguing picture will probably change before a cross-over occurs, as lockdown restrictions ease, and as the data feeding into the three year average slowly changes over time. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 77.7% 104.6% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 94.8% 127.6% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 76.0% 102.3% Summary Last month market volatility theoretically took progress down to below most of my financial independence benchmarks on an 'All Assets' (i.e. portfolio and superannuation assets) basis. This position has reversed this month. As markets have recovered and with additional spare time in the lockdown period, I have continued to seek out and think about different perspectives on the history and future of markets. Yet it must be recognised that there is a natural limit to the utility of these ponderings. The shape of the future is always uncertain, and in this world, confident comparisons and analogies with past events can be perilous. Comparisons with past periods of financial market crises miss the centrality of government action as a causal influence on the path of virus affected economies and markets. A virus and recovery is not the same as a global financial crisis originating in housing finance markets addressed through monetary and fiscal stimulus. Most developed country governments have quickly applied the same, if not larger versions of responses as applied in the global financial crisis, a distinguishing step that also makes analogies with the great depression era problematic. Similarly, a pandemic is not hitting and interacting with the shattered economic and health systems of the 1918-19 Spanish flu. Overlaying all of this is the imperfect and partially disconnected relationship between the economy today, and equity markets that discount and focus on the future. This makes all history's lessons more than usually caveated and conditional. One avenue for managing through these times is to focus on what does not change - the psychological difficulty of accepting alterations in financial circumstances and the capacity of markets movements to cruelly surprise us in both timing and direction. One of the best texts to read to get a sense of both of these in such times is Benjamin Roth's A Great Depression Diary. This tells of the day-by-day changes observed in everyday urban life and investment markets, from the point of view of an American small retail investor living through the times. This month also saw the exciting news that Pat the Shuffler and Strong Money Australia are combining efforts to produce a new podcast. Speaking of which, Big ERN's reflections on the current implications of sharemarket market movements for seekers of financial independence have been filled with insight and wisdom. This interesting piece (video) - the latest in a 'virus' market series - from New York University's Professor of Finance Aswath Damodaran on asset performances through the past few months - is a more technical and detailed discussion of how markets have re-priced businesses and profits. Finally, the recently released Hmmminar interview series provides a more heterodox set of speakers and ideas on current markets, presented by Grant Williams. Unlike predicting the future, seeking out different perspectives on it is perhaps the easiest it has ever been in history. While it is not always possible to change the course taken, it is possible to look at the same horizon with new eyes. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
On July 14, 2020, join Binance as we kick off our third anniversary with one of the biggest blockchain events of the year. Get the latest news and updates on all things blockchain and crypto, and take an exclusive look at what’s coming next at our “Off the Charts!” Virtual Conference, a blockbuster 10-hour live event with multi-regional programming that brings together 80+ influential speakers, including leading blockchain and crypto innovators, business and technology leaders, influential academics, and key policymakers. Expect to hear the latest insights on the blockchain ecosystem from some of the industry’s most prominent leaders and visionaries. Join our can’t-miss event with powerful talks, breakthrough panels, opportunities to win prizes, and much more. The “Off the Charts!” Virtual Conference will feature five segments with spotlights on regions making a significant impact in the space: Europe & the UK, Asia-Pacific, Russia & CIS, Africa & Middle East, and North America & LATAM. Discover an array of keynotes, panels, and fireside chats, on these following themes and more:
Powering Crypto Growth: Local blockchain trends and evolving technologies that are transforming crypto awareness and adoption.
Crypto Meets Traditional Finance: Exploring opportunities for integrated and parallel development.
Blockchain and Global Health: Crypto’s appeal in today’s volatile environment.
Policy and Regulation: Spearheading community initiatives through cooperation and investment.
Trading Strategies and Technical Analysis: Training and insights to improve your trading.
Hear from these speakers and more:
Akon - Chairman & Co-Founder, Akoin
Cliff Liang - Director of Solutions Architecture, Amazon
David Ferrer Canosa - Secretary for Digital Policies, Government of Catalonia
Don Tapscott - Executive Chairman, The Blockchain Research Institute
Oleksandr Bornyakov - Deputy Minister, Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine
Perianne Boring - Founder and President, Chamber of Digital Commerce
Changpeng Zhao (CZ) - Founder & CEO, Binance
He Yi - Co-Founder & CMO, Binance
Aarón Olmos - Economist, Olmos Group Venezuela
Alex Saunders - CEO & Founder, Nugget's News
Anna Baydakova - Reporter, CoinDesk
Anton Mozgovoy - Head of Product, Jthereum
Apolline Blandin - Research Lead, Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance
Beniamin Mincu - CEO, Elrond
Bobby Ong - Co-founder, CoinGecko
Brendan Eich - CEO & Co-founder, Brave Software
Bruno Diniz - Managing Partner, Spiralem Innovation Consulting
Calvin Liu - Strategy Lead, Compound Labs
Camila Russo - Founder, The Defiant
Carlos Rischioto - Client Technical Leader & Blockchain SME, IBM
Carylyne Chan - Interim CEO, CoinMarketCap
Catherine Coley - CEO, Binance.US
Charles Hayter - CEO, CryptoCompare
Charles Hoskinson - Founder, Cardano
Charlie Shrem - Host, UntoldStories.Com
Chimezie Chuta - Founder, Blockchain Nigeria User Group
Darius Sit - Partner, QCP Capital
David Ferrer Canosa - Secretary for Digital Policies, Government of Catalonia
Denis Efremov - Investment Director, Da Vinci Capital
Don Tapscott - Executive Chairman, The Blockchain Research Institute
Eric Turner - VP, Market Intelligence, Messari
Erick Pinos - Americas Ecosystem Lead, Ontology
Ernesto Contreras Escalona - Head of Business Development, Dash Core Group
Eugene Mutai - CTO, Raise
Genping Liu - Partner, Vertex Ventures
Hany Rashwan - CEO, 21Shares AG
Harry Halpin - CEO, Nym Technologies
Hongfei Da - Founder, Neo
Igor Runets - CEO, BitRiver
İsmail Hakkı Polat - Cryptocurrency & Blockchain Lecturer, Istanbul Kadir Has University
Jamie Burke - CEO, Outlier Ventures
Jiho Kang - CEO, Binance.KR
John Izaguirre - Europe Ecosystem Lead, Ontology
John Khenneth Parungao - COO, SwipeWallet, Inc.
Jon Karas - President & Co-Founder, Akoin
Jorge Farias - CEO, Cryptobuyer
Joseph Hung - Director of Market Strategy, Klaytn
Joseph Lubin - CEO, ConsenSys
Juan Otero - CEO, Travala.com
Justin Sun - Founder, TRON & CEO, BitTorrent
Kristina Lucrezia Cornèr - Managing Editor & Head of Features, Cointelegraph
Ken Nakamura - CEO, GMO-Z.com Trust Company
Konstantin Goldstein - Principal Technical Evangelist, Microsoft
Kyle Samani - Managing Director, Multicoin Capital
Thamim Ahmed - Researcher, University College London
Tom Lee - Head of Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors
Tyler Spalding - CEO, Flexa
Veronica Wong - CEO, SafePal
Viktor Radchenko - Founder, Trust Wallet
Winpro Yan - Chief Editor, Mars Finance
Yele Bademosi - CEO, Bundle Africa
Zhuling Chen - COO, Aelf Blockchain
Stay tuned as speakers and more themes are announced in the coming weeks! For more details, read our blog posthereand visit our event websitehere. During the livestream, we will be holding special #BinanceTurns3activities for viewers and giving away limited-edition prizes, swag, and collectible NFTs at various points throughout the livestream. Availability is limited! Register today! Binance Awards 2020 Join Binance as we celebrate the standout innovators and businesses that have made sizable contributions, both to our community and to our blockchain ecosystem. Winners will be announced during our live event, and results will be published on our blog afterwards. Register on Eventbrite today and tune in to the “Off the Charts” Virtual Conference on July 14, 2020, from 9:00 AM to 7:00 PM (UTC). -------- Thank you to our partners for helping make this event possible!
On March 15th, the Federal Reserve started the first round of its stimulus plan to stabilize the tumultuous economic conditions caused by the country-wide shut down due to COVID19. Significant was a $700 billion round of Quantitative Easing (QE) and the cutting of interest rates effectively to zero percent. The reaction of the stock market and most asset classes was to continue its downward trend that had started in late February. The Federal Reserve continued to make smaller policy changes during the next 8 days until March 23rd when it announced its “extensive new measures to support the economy”. In short, the Fed is expanding its QE program announced on March 15th and will be making additional expansions in the future as needed. This time Wall Street reacts positively, as March 23rd was the starting point of a historic bull run.
The Breaking of the 60/40 Model
The 60/40 model of portfolio allocation has been a traditional portfolio management strategy used for over 30 years. The strategy states to put 60% of your funds into stocks and the remaining 40% into high quality bonds. The philosophy behind this investment strategy is that by having your portfolio diversified this way, you won’t take a huge hit if your stocks go down because you’ll have returns from bonds to make up for it. This is a strategy generally used by people with low risk tolerances, or people who don’t want to constantly keep their eyes on the markets. Over the past few decades, the 60/40 model has demonstrated a good amount of success; however, there are many who believe the chances of this strategy continuing to function successfully into the future are very low. Both JP Morgan and Bank of America have released statements on the decline of the 60/40 portfolio. JP Morgan strategists have stated “In the zero-yield world, which we think will be with us for years, bonds offer neither much return nor protection against equity falls,” referencing the fact that the majority of government bonds are trading at yields below 1%. In a research note titled “The Death of 60/40” Bank of America strategists had this to say, “The challenge for investors today is that both of those benefits from bonds, diversification and risk reduction, seem to be weakening, and this is happening at a time when positioning in many fixed-income sectors is incredibly crowded, making bonds more vulnerable to sharp, sudden selloffs when active managers rebalance.” So, with diminishing trust and poor returns from bonds, many investors are looking for other assets to replace the 40% hole in their portfolios. Many are increasing their percentage allocated to stocks in addition to investing in Gold and other metals as a protection against inflation. Many investors are also looking to Bitcoin.
Asset Reallocation Flowing from Bonds to Stocks
The historical runup in stock prices, specifically for the tech heavy Nasdaq, started on March 23rd. With the NAS100 index up close to 60% (from $6,584 to $10,616) in less than 3 months. It's not showing any signs of slowing down. In the opinion of QuantifyCrypto, the major reason for this is the flow of capital that would normally be going into bonds is now going into stocks. Yes the Fed stimulus is positive, but can you say the market conditions are actually better for stocks when there is still uncertainty in the future? While some stocks are fundamentally better due to COVID19, this is not true for most stocks. The next chart shows the price movement of the NASDAQ 100 Index for 2020. NAS100 Daily Chart from Trading View
Asset Reallocation to Cryptocurrency – When?
When asked about the current demise of the 60/40 portfolio model, veteran investor Dan Tapiero stated there could be “nothing more bullish for gold and bitcoin,” and that we are in the midst of the “beginning of the end for [government] bonds as a functioning productive asset class. Traditional 60/40 portfolios will need to find a new defensive asset to replace a portion of the 40%.” It seems that other players in the world of finance are saying similar things, hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC in May that Bitcoin is a “great speculation” and that he has one to two percent of his assets in Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tend to have higher volatility than stocks. Three days before the Federal Reserve started making its announcements, Bitcoin went down over 50% in a single day. High volatility and a full price recovery continued in April and May, with Bitcoin closing on May 30th at ~$10,440. Until this point, there had been a high correlation between the NASDAQ 100 and Bitcoin as shown in the chart below. NAS100 Daily Chart with Bitcoin (blue line) added Since June 1st, Bitcoin has clearly lagged while stocks have continued their upward climb. While Crypto has been stagnant and down since May, the fundamental picture has never been better:
The Central Bank stimulus response is inflationary to Fiat currencies, this is positive for non-inflationary assets like gold and cryptocurrency.
The lack of new funds moving into bonds is flowing into stocks. When the stock market advance slows or starts to decline, the flow into other assets classes will start to increase.
The full deflationary impact of the Bitcoin halving still has not kicked in.
Corporate adoption and use cases for cryptocurrency is accelerating (Future article).
Before COVID occurred, 2020 was looking like a very strong year for Bitcoin and Altcoins. This price strength is likely to return.
As government bonds continue to trade with yields below 1%, it is safe to say that more and more people will be abandoning the traditional 60/40 strategy. While it’s too early to determine what the new percent strategy will become, with Bitcoin presenting a clear solution to the problems with bonds and the diminishing value of cash, portfolio managers may very well be using cryptocurrency to solve their diversification requirement.
The platform Quantify Crypto provides live cryptocurrency prices, technical analysis, news, heatmaps and more. Our flagship product is the trend algorithm, designed to be on the correct side of significant cryptocurrency price moves. We are a new site, please check us out and let us know what you like and do not like about the site. None of this is meant to be financial advice and I do not have any financial expertise. John Barry worked at the New York Stock Exchange for over 23 years, it was as a developer supporting computer systems, not as a stock trader. Alex Wason is an intern working for Quantify Crypto Full discloser: John Barry owns Bitcoin and has stock positions.
CryptoDiffer teamHello, everyone!We are glad to meet here:Max Freeman (@maxfreeman4), Project Lead at Epic CashYoga Dude (@Yogadude), PR&Marketing at Epic CashXenolink (@Xenolink), Advisor at Epic Cash Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash Thanks Max, we are excited to be here! Yoga Dude PR&Marketing at Epic Cash Hello Everyone! Thank you for having us here! Xenolink Advisor at Epic Cash Thank you to the CryptoDiffer team and CryptoDiffer community for hosting us! CryptoDiffer teamLet`s start from the first introduction question:Q1: Can you introduce yourself to the community? What is your background and how did you join Epic Cash? Yoga Dude PR&Marketing at Epic Cash Hello! My background is Marketing and Business Development, I’ve been in crypto since 2011 started with Bitcoin, then Monero in 2014, Ethereum in 2015 and at some point Doge for fun and profit. I joined Epic Cash team in September 2019 handling PR and Marketing. I saw in Epic Cash what was missing in my previous cryptos — things that were missing in Bitcoin and Monero especially. Xenolink Advisor at Epic Cash Hello Cryptodiffer Community, I am not an original co-founder nor am I a developer for the Epic Cash project. I am however a community member that is involved in helping scale this project to higher levels. One of the many beauties of Epic Cash is that every single member in the community has the opportunity to be part of EPIC’s team, it can be from development all the way to content producing. Epic Cash is a community driven project. The true Core Team of Epic Cash is our community. I believe a community that is the Core Team is truly powerful. EPIC Cash has one of the freshest and strongest communities I have seen in quite a while. Which is one of the reasons why I became involved in this project. Epic displayed some of the most self community produced content I have seen in a project. I’m actually a doctor of medicine but in terms of my experience in crypto, I have been involved in the industry since 2012 beginning with mining Litecoin. Since then I have been doing deep dive analysis on different projects, investing, and building a network in crypto that I will utilize to help connect and scale Epic in every way I can. To give some credit to those people in my network that have been a part of helping give Epic exposure, I would like to give a special thanks to u/Tetsugan and u/Saurabhblr. Tetsugan has been doing a lot of work for the Japanese community to penetrate the Japanese market, and Japan has already developed a growing interest in Epic. Daku Sarabh the owner and creator of Crypto Daku Robinhooders, I would like to thank him and his community for giving us one of our first large AMA’s, which he has supported our project early and given us a free AMA. Many more to thank but can’t be disclosed. Also thank you to all the Epic Community leaders, developers, and Content producers! Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash I’m Max Freeman, which stands for “Maximum Freedom for Mankind”. I started working on the ideas that would become Epic in 2018. I fell in love with Bitcoin in 2017 but realized that it needs privacy at the base layer, fungibility, better scalability in order to go to the next level. CryptoDiffer team Really interesting backgrounds I must admit, pleasure to see the team that clearly has one vision of the project by being completely decentralized:) Q2: Can you briefly describe what is Epic Cash in 3–5 sentences? What technology stands behind Epic Cash and why it’s better than the existing one? Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash I’d like to highlight the differences between Epic and the two highest-valued privacy coin projects, Monero and Zcash. XMR has always-on privacy like Epic does, but at a cost: Its blockchain is over 20x more data intensive than Epic, which limits its possibilities for scalability. Epic’s blockchain is small and light enough to run a full node on cell phones, something that is in our product road map. ZEC by comparison can’t run on low end devices because of its zero knowledge based approach, and only 1% of transactions are fully private. Epic is simply newer, more advanced technology than prior networks thanks to Mimblewimble We will also add more algorithms to widen the range of hardware that can participate in mining. For example, cell phones and tablets based around ARM chips. Millions of people can mine Epic that can’t mine Bitcoin, and that will help grow the network rapidly. There are some great short videos on our YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQBFfksJlM97rgrplLRwNUg/videos that explain why we believe we have created something truly special here. Our core architecture derives from Grin, so we are fortunate to benefit on an ongoing basis from their considerable development efforts. We are focused on making our currency truly usable and widely available, beyond a store of value and becoming a true medium of exchange. Yoga Dude PR&Marketing at Epic Cash Well we all have our views, but in a nutshell, we offer things that were missing in the previous cryptos. We have sound fiscal emission schedule matching Bitcoin, but we are vastly more private and faster. Our blockchain is lighter than Bitcoin or Monero and our tech is more scalable. Also, we are unique in that we are mineable with CPUs and GPUs as well as ASICs, giving the broadest population the ability to mine Epic Cash. Plus, you can’t forget FUNGIBILITY 🙂 we are big on that — since you can’t have true privacy without fungibility. Also, please understand, we have HUGE respect to all the cryptos that came before us, we learned a lot from them, and thanks to their mistakes we evolved. Xenolink Advisor at Epic Cash To add on, what also makes Epic Cash unique is the ability to decentralize the mining using a tri-algo model of Random X (CPU), Progpow (GPU), and Cuckoo (ASIC) for an ability to do hybrid mining. I believe this is an issue we can see today in Bitcoin having centralized mining and the average user has a costly barrier of entry. To follow up on this one in my opinion one of the things we adopted that we have seen success for , in example Bitcoin and Monero, is a strong community driven coin. I believe having a community driven coin will provide a more organic atmosphere especially when starting with No ICO, or Premine with a fair distribution model for everyone. CryptoDiffer team Q3: What are the major milestones Epic Cash has achieved so far? Maybe you can share with us some exciting plans for future weeks/months? Yoga Dude PR&Marketing at Epic Cash Since we went live in September of 2019, we attracted a very large community of users, miners, investors and contributors from across the world. Epic Cash is a very international project with white papers translated into over 30 languages. We are very much a community driven project; this is very evident from our content and the amount of translations in our white papers and in our social media content. We are constantly working on improving our usability, security and privacy, as well as getting our message and philosophy out into the world to achieve mass adoption. We have a lot of exciting plans for our project, the plan is to make Epic Cash into something that is More than Money. You can tell I am the Marketing guy since my message is less about the actual tech and more about the usability and use cases for Epic Cash, I think our Team and Community have a great mix of technical, practical, social and fiscal experiences. Since we opened our YouTube channels content for community submissions, we have seen our content translated into Spanish, French, German, Polish, Chinese, Japanese, Arabic, Russian, and other languages Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash Our future development roadmap will be published soon and includes 4 tracks: Usability Mining Core Protocol Ecosystem Development Core Protocol Epic Server 2.9.0 — this release improves the difficulty adjustment and is aimed at making block emission closer to the target 60 seconds, particularly reducing the incidence of extremely short and long blocks — Status: In Development (Testing) Anticipated Release: June 2020 Epic Server 3.0.0 — this completes the rebase to Grin 3.0.0 and serves as the prerequisite to some important functional building blocks for the future of the ecosystem. Specifically, sending via Tor (which eliminates the need to open ports), proof of payment (useful for certain dex applications e.g. Bisq), and our native mobile app. Status: In Development (Testing) Anticipated Release: Fall 2020 Non-Interactive Transactions — this will enhance usability by enabling “fire and forget” send-to-address functionality that users are accustomed to from most cryptocurrencies. Status: Drawing Board Anticipated Release: n/a Scaling Options — when blocks start becoming full, how will we increase capacity? Two obvious options are increasing the block size, as well as a Lightning Network-style Layer 2 structure. Status: Drawing Board Anticipated Release: n/a Confidential Assets — Similar to Raven, Tari, and Beam, the ability to create independently tradable assets that ride on the Epic Blockchain. Status: Drawing Board Anticipated Release: n/a Usability GUI Wallet 2.0 — Restore from seed words and various usability enhancements — Status: Needs Assessment Anticipated Release: Fall 2020 Mobile App — Native mobile experience for iOS and Android. Status: In Development (Testing) Anticipated Release: Winter 2020 Telegram Integration — Anonymous payments over the Telegram network, bot functionality for groups. Status: Drawing Board Anticipated Release: n/a Mining RandomX on ARM — Our 4th PoW algorithm, this will enable tablets, cell phones, and low power devices such as Raspberry Pi to participate in mining. Status: Needs Assessment Anticipated Release: n/a The economics of mining Epic are extremely compelling for countries that have free or extremely cheap electricity, since anyone with an ordinary PC can mine. Individual people around the world can simply run the miner and earn meaningful money (imagine Venezuela for example), something that has not been possible since the very early days of Bitcoin. Ecosystem Development Atomic Swaps — Connecting Epic to other blockchains in a trustless way, starting with ETH so that Epic can trade on DeFi infrastructure such as Uniswap, Kyber, etc. Status: Drawing Board Anticipated Release: n/a Xenolink Advisor at Epic Cash From the Community aspect, we have been further developing our community international reach. We have been seeing an increase in interest from South America, China, Russia, Japan, Italy, and the Philippines. We are working on targeting more countries. We truly aim to be a decentralized project that is open to everyone worldwide. CryptoDiffer team Great, thank you for your answers, we now can move to community questions part! Cryptodiffer Community You have 3 mining algorithms, the question is: how do they not compete with each other? Is there any benefit of mining on the GPU and CPU if someone is mining on the ASIC? Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash The block selection is deterministic, so that every 100 blocks, 60% are for RandomX (CPU), 38% for ProgPow (GPU), and 2% for Cuckoo (ASIC) — the policy is flexible so that we can have as many algorithms with any percentages we want. The goal is to make the most decentralized and resilient network possible, and with that in mind we are excited to work on enabling tablets and cell phones to mine, since that opens it up to millions of people that otherwise can’t take part. Cryptodiffer Community To Run a project smoothly, Funding is very important, From where does the Funding/revenue come from? Xenolink Advisor at Epic Cash Yes, early on this was realized and in order to scale a project funds are indeed needed. Epic Cash did not start with any funding and no ICO and was organically genesis mined with no pre-mine. Epic cash is also a nonprofit community driven project similar to Monero. There is no profit-driven entity in the picture. To overcome the revenue issue Epic Cash setup a development fund tax that decreases 1% every year until 2028 when Epic Cash reaches singularity with Bitcoin emissions. Currently it is at 7.77%. This will help support the scaling of the project. Cryptodiffer Community Hi! In your experience working also with MONERO can you please clarify which are those identified problems that EPIC CASH aims to develop and resolve? What’s the main advantage that EPIC CASH has over MONERO? Thank you! Yoga Dude PR&Marketing at Epic Cash First, I must admit that I am still a huge fan and HODLer of Monero. That said: ✅ our blockchain is MUCH lighter than Monero’s ✅ our transaction processing speed is much faster ✅ our address-less blockchain is more private ✅ Epic Cash can be mined with CPU (RandomX) GPU (ProgPow) and Cuckoo, whereas Monero migrated to RandomX and currently only mineable with CPU Cryptodiffer Community
the feature ‘Cut Through’ deletes old data, how is it decided which data will be deletes, and what are the consequences of it for the platform and therefore the users?
On your website I see links to download Epic wallet and mining software for Linux,Windows and MacOs, I am a user of android, is there a version for me, or does it have a release date?
Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash
This is one of the most exciting features of Mimblewimble, which is its extraordinary ability to compress blockchain data. In Bitcoin, the entire history of a coin must be replayed every time it is spent, and comprehensive details are permanently stored in the blockchain. Epic discards spent transaction inputs and consolidates outputs, storing neither addresses or amounts, only a tiny kernel to allow sender and receiver to prove their transaction.
The Vitex mobile app is great for today, and we have a native mobile app for iOS and Android in the works as well.
Cryptodiffer Community $EPIC Have total Supply of 21,000,000 EPIC , is there any burning plan? Or Buyback program to maintain $EPIC price in the future? Who is Epic Biggest competitors? And what’s makes epic better than competitors? Xenolink Advisor at Epic Cash We respect the older generation coins like Bitcoin. But we have learned that the supply economics of Bitcoin is very sound. Until today we can witness how the Bitcoin is being adopted institutionally and by retail. We match the 21 million BTC supply economics because it is an inelastic fixed model which makes the long-term economics very sound. To have an elastic model of burning tokens or printing tokens will not have a solid economic future. Take for example the USD which is an inflating supply. In terms of competitors we look at everyone in crypto with respect and also learn from everyone. If we had to compare to other Mimblewimble tech coins, Grin is an inelastic forever inflating supply which in the long term is not sound economics. Beam however is an inelastic model but is formed as a corporation. The fair distribution is not there because of the permanent revenue model setup for them. Epic Cash a non-profit development tax fund model for scaling purposes that will disappear by 2028’s singularity. Cryptodiffer Community What your plans in place for global expansion, are you focusing on only market at this time? Or focus on building and developing or getting customers and users, or partnerships? Yoga Dude PR&Marketing at Epic Cash Since we are a community project, we have many developers, in addition to the core team. Our plans for Global expansion are simple — we have advocates in different regions addressing their audiences in their native languages. We are growing organically, by explaining our ideology and usability. The idea is to grow beyond needing a fiat bridge for crypto use, but to rather replace fiat with our borderless, private and fungible crypto so people can use it to get goods and services without using banks. We are not limiting ourselves to one particular demographic — Epic Cash is a valid solution for the gamers, investors, techie and non techie people, and the unbanked. Cryptodiffer Community EPIC confidential coin! Did you have any problems with the regulators? And there will be no problems with listing on centralized exchanges? Xenolink Advisor at Epic Cash In terms of structure, we are carefully set up to minimize these concerns. Without a company or investors in the picture, and having raised no funds, there is little scope to attack in terms of securities laws. Bitcoin and Ethereum are widely acknowledged as acceptable, and we follow in their well-established footprints in that respect. Centralized exchanges already trade other privacy coins, so we don’t see this as much of an issue either. In general, decentralized p2p exchange options are more interesting than today’s centralized platforms. They are more censorship resistant, secure, and privacy-protecting. As the technology gets better, they should continue to gain market share and that’s why we’re proud to be partnered with Vitex, whose exchange and mobile app work very well. Cryptodiffer Community What are the main utility and real-life usage of the #EPIC As an investor, why should we invest in the #EPIC project as a long-term investment? Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash Because our blockchain is so light (only 1.16gb currently, and grows very slowly) it is naturally well suited to become a decentralized mobile money standard because people can run a full node on their phone, guaranteeing the security of their funds. Scalability in Bitcoin requires complicated and compromised workarounds such as Lightning Network and light clients, and these problems are solved in Epic. With our forthcoming Mobile Mining app, hundreds of millions of cell phones and tablets will be able to easily join the network. People can quickly and cheaply send money to one another, fulfilling the long-envisioned promise of P2P electronic cash. As an investor, it’s important to ask a few key questions. Bitcoin Standard tokenomics of disinflation and a fixed supply are well proven over a decade now. We follow this model exactly, with a permanently synchronized supply from 2028, and 4 emission halvings from now until then, with our first one in about two weeks. Beyond that, we can apply some simple logical tests. What is more valuable, money that can only be used in some cases (censorable Bitcoin based on a lack of fungibility) or money that can be used universally? (fungible Epic based on always-on privacy by default). Epic is also poised to be a more decentralized and therefore resilient network because of wider participation in mining. Epic is designed to be Bitcoin++ Privacy, Fungibility, Scalability Cryptodiffer Community Q1. What are advantages for choosing three mining algorithms RandomX+, ProgPow and CuckAToo31+ ? Q2. Beam and Grin use MimbleWimble protocol, so what are difference for Epic? All of you will be friends for partners or competitors? Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash RandomX and ProgPow are designed to use the entirety of a CPU / GPU’s unique processing capabilities in a way that other types of hardware don’t work as well. You can run RandomX on a GPU but it doesn’t work nearly as well as a much cheaper CPU, for example. Cuckoo is a “memory hard” algorithm that widens the range of companies that can produce the hardware. Grin and Beam are great projects and we’ve learned a lot from them. We inherited our first codebase from Grin’s excellent Rust design, which is a better language for community participation than C++ that Beam currently uses. Functionally, Mimblewimble is similar across the 3 coins, with standard Confidential Transactions, CoinJoin, Dandelion++, Schnorr Signatures and other advanced features. Grin is primarily ASIC-targeted, Beam is GPU-targeted, and Epic is multi-hardware. The biggest differences though are in tokenomics and project structure. Grin has permanent inflation of 60 coins per block with no halvings, which means steady erosion of value over time due to new supply pressure. It also lacks a steady funding model, making future development in jeopardy, particularly as the per coin price falls. Beam has a for-profit model with heavy early inflation and a high developer tax. Epic builds on the strengths of these earlier mimblewimble projects and addresses the parts that could be improved. Cryptodiffer Community Some privacy coin has scalability issues! How Epic cash will solve scalability issues? Why you choose randomX consensus algorithem? Xenolink Advisor at Epic Cash Fungibility means that you can’t distinguish one unit of currency from another, in example Gold. Fungibility has recently become a hot issue as people have been noticing Bitcoins being locked up by exchanges which may of had a nefarious history which are called Tainted Coins. In example coins that have been involved in a hack, darknet market transactions, or even processing coin through a mixer. Today we can already see freshly mined Bitcoins being sold at a premium price to avoid the fungibility problem Bitcoin carries today. Bitcoin can be tracked by chainalysis and is not a fungible cryptocurrency. One of the features that Epic has is privacy with added fungibility, because of Mimblewimble technology, Epic has no addresses recorded and therefore nothing can be tracked by chainalysis. Below I provide a link of an example of what the lack of fungibility is resulting in today with Bitcoin. One of the reasons why we chose the Random X algo. is because of the easy barrier of entry and also to further decentralize the mining. Random X algo can be mined on old computers or laptops. We also have 2 other algos Progpow (GPU), and Cuckoo (ASIC) to create a wider decentralization of mining methods for Epic. Cryptodiffer Community I’m a newbie in crypto and blockchain so how will Epic Cash team target and educate people who don’t know about blockchain and crypto? What is the uniqueness of Epic Cash that cannot be found in other project that´s been released so far ? Yoga Dude Pr&Marketing at Epic Cash Actually, while we have our white paper translated into over 30 languages, we are more focused on explaining our uses and advantages rather than cold specs. Our tech is solid, but we not get hung up on pure tech talk which most casual users do not need to or care to understand. As long as our fundamentals and tech are secure and user friendly our primary goal is to educate about use cases and market potential. The uniqueness of Epic Cash is its amalgamation of “whats good” in other cryptos. We use Mimblewimble for privacy and anonymity. Our blockchain is much lighter than our competitors. We are the only Mimblewimble crypto to use a unique cocktail of mining algorithms allowing to be mined by casual miners with gaming rigs and laptops, while remaining friendly to GPU and CPU farmers. The “uniqueness” is learning from the mistakes of those who came before us, we evolved and learned, which is why our privacy is better, we are faster, we are fungible, we offer diverse mining and so on. We are the best blend — thats powerful and unique Cryptodiffer Community Can you share EPIC’s vision for decentralized finance (DEFI)? What features do EPIC have to support DEFI? Yoga Dude PR&Marketing at Epic Cash We view Epic as ideally suited to be the decentralized digital reserve asset of the new Private Internet of Money that’s emerging. At a technology level, atomic swaps can be created to build liquidity bridges so that wrapped Epic tokens (like WBTC, WETH) can trade on other networks as ERC20, BEP2, NEP5, VIP180, Algorand and so on. There is more Bitcoin value locked on Ethereum than in Lightning Network, so we will similarly integrate Epic so that it can trade on networks such as Uniswap, Kyber, and so on. Longer term, if there is market demand for it, thanks to Scriptless Script functionality our blockchain has, we can build “Confidential Assets” (which Raven, Tari, and Beam are all also working on) that enable people to create tokenized assets in a private way. Cryptodiffer Community If you could choose one celebrity to promote Epic-cash, who that would be? Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash I am a firm believer that the strength of the project lies in allowing community members to become their own celebrities, if their content is good enough the community will propel them to celebrity status. Organic celebrities with small but loyal following are vastly more beneficial than big name professional shills with inflated but non caring audiences. I remember the early days of Apple when an enthusiastic dude named Guy Kawasaki became Apple Evangelist, he was literally going around stores that sold Apple and visited user groups and Evangelized his belief in Apple. This guy became a Legend and helped Apple become what it is today. Epic Cash will have its OWN Celebrities Cryptodiffer Community How does $EPIC solve scalability of transactions? Current blockchains face issues with scalability a lot, how does $EPIC creates a solution to it? Xenolink Advisor at Epic Cash Epic Cash is utilizing Mimblewimble technology. Besides the privacy & fungibility aspect of the tech. There is the scalability features of it. It is implemented into Epic by transaction cut-through. Which means it allows nodes to remove all intermediate transactions, thus significantly reducing the blockchain size without affecting its validation. Mimblewimble also does not use addresses like a BTC address, and amount of transactions are also not recorded. One problem Monero and Bitcoin are facing now is scalability. It is evident today that data is getting more expensive and that will be a problem in the long run for those coins. Epic is 90% lighter and more scalable compared to Monero and Bitcoin. Cryptodiffer Community what are the ways that Epic Cash generates profits/revenue to maintain your project and what is its revenue model ? How can it make benefit win-win to both invester and your project ? Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash There is a block subsidy of 7.77% that declines 1.11% per year until 0, where it stays after that. As a nonprofit community effort, this extremely modest amount goes much further than in other projects, which often take 20, 30, even 50+ % of the coin supply. We believe that this ongoing funding model best aligns the long term incentives for all participants and balances the compromises between the ends of the centralized/decentralized spectrum of choices that any project must make. Cryptodiffer Community Q1 : What are your major goals to archive in the next 3–4 years? Q2 : What are your plans to expand and gain more adoption? Yoga Dude Pr&Marketing at Epic Cash Max already talked about our technical plans and goals in his roadmap. Allow me to talk more about the non technical 😁 We are aiming for broader reach in the non technical more mainstream community — this is a big challenge but we believe it is doable. By offering simpler ways to mine Epic Cash (with smart phones for example), and by doing more education we will achieve the holy grail of crypto — moving past the fiat bridges and getting Epic Cash to be accepted as means of payment for goods and services. We will accomplish this by working with regional advocacy groups, community interaction, off-line promotional activities and diverse social media targeting. Cryptodiffer Community It seems to me that EpicCash will have its first Halving, right? Why a halving so soon? Is a mobile version feasible? Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash Our supply emission catches up to that of Bitcoin’s first 19 years after 8 years in Epic, so that requires more frequent halvings. Today’s block emission is 16, next up are 8, 4, 2, and then finally 0.15625. After that, the supply of Epic and that of BTC stay synchronized until maxing out at 21m coins in 2140. Today we have a mobile wallet through the Vitex app, a native mobile wallet coming, and are working on mobile mining. Cryptodiffer Community What markets will you add after that? Yoga Dude PR&Marketing at Epic Cash Well, we are aiming to have ALL markets Epic Cash in its final iteration will be usable by everyone everywhere regardless of their technical expertise. We are not limiting ourselves to the technocrats, one of our main goals is to help the billions of unbanked. We want everyone to be able to mine, buy, and most of all USE Epic Cash — gamers, farmers, soccer moms, students, retirees, everyone really — even bankers (well once we defeat the banking industry) We will continue building on the multilingual diversity of our global community adding support and advocacy groups in more countries in more languages. Epic Cash is More than Money and its for Everyone. Cryptodiffer Community Almost, all cryptocurrencies are decentralized & no-one knows who owns that cryptocurrencies ! then also, why Privacy is needed? hats the advantages of Private coins? Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash With a public transparent blockchain such as Bitcoin, you are permanently posting a detailed history of your money movements open for anyone to see (not just legitimate authorities, either!) — It would be considered crazy to post your credit card or bank statements to Twitter, but that’s what is happening every time you send a transaction that is not private. This excellent video from community contributor Spencer Lambert https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0blbfmvCq\_4 explains better than I can. Privacy is not just for criminals, it’s for everyone. Do you want your landlord to increase the rent when he sees that you get a raise? Your insurance company to raise your healthcare costs because they see you buying too much ice cream? If you’re a business, do you want your employees to see how much money their coworkers make? Do you want your competitors to trace your supplier and customer relationships? Of course not. By privacy being default for everyone, cryptocurrency can be used in a much wider range of situations without unacceptable compromises. Cryptodiffer Community What are the main utility and real-life usage of the #EPIC As an investor, why should we invest in the #EPIC project as a long-term investment? Xenolink Advisor at Epic Cash Epic Cash can be used as a Private and Fungible store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account. As Epic Cash grows and becomes adopted it can be compared to how Bitcoin and Monero is used and adopted as well. As Epic is adopted by the masses, it can be accepted as a medium of exchange for store owners and as fungible payments without the worry of having money that is tainted. Epic Cash as a store of value may be a good long term aspect of investment to consider. Epic Cash carries an inelastic fixed supply economic model of 21 million coins. There will be 5 halvings which this month of June will be our first halving of epic. From a block reward of 16 Epic reduced to 8. If we look at BTC’s price action and history of their halvings it has been proven and show that there has been an increase in value due to the scarcity and from halvings a reduction of # of BTC’s mined per block. An inelastic supply model like Bitcoin provides proof of the circulating supply compared to the total supply by the history of it’s Price action which is evident in long term charts since the birth of Bitcoin. EPIC Plans to have 5 halvings before the year 2028 to match the emissions of Bitcoin which we call the singularity event. Below is a chart displaying our halvings model approaching singularity. Once bitcoin and cryptocurrency becomes adopted mainstream, the fungibility problem will be more noticed by the general public. Privacy coins and the features of fungibility/scalability will most likely be sought over. Right now a majority of people believe that all cryptocurrency is fungible. However, that is not true. We can already see Chainalysis confirming that they can trace and track and even for other well-known privacy coins today such as Z-Cash. Cryptodiffer Community
You aim to reach support from a global community, what are your plans to get spanish speakers involved into Epic Cash? And emerging markets like the african
How am I secure I won’t be affected by receiving tainted money?
Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash Native speakers from our community are working to raise awareness in key markets such as mining in Argentina and Venezuela for Spanish (Roberto Navarro called Epic “the holy grail of cryptocurrency” and Ethiopia and certain North African countries that have the lowest electricity costs in the world. Remittances between USA and Latin American countries are expensive and slow, so Epic is also perfect for people to send money back home as well. Cryptodiffer Community Do EPICs in 2020 focus more on research and coding, or on sales and implementation? Yoga Dude PR&Marketing at Epic Cash We will definitely continue to work on research and coding, with emphasis on improved accessibility (especially via smartphones) usability, security and privacy. In terms of financial infrastructure will continuing to add exchanges both KYC and non KYC. Big part of our plans is in ongoing Marketing and PR outreach. The idea is to make Epic Cash a viral sensation of sorts. If we can get Epic Cash adopters to spread the word and tell their family, coworkers and friends about Epic Cash — there will be no stopping us and to help that happen we have a growing army of content creators, and supporters. Everyone with skin in the game gets the benefit of advancing the cause. Folks also, this isn’t an answer to the question but an example of a real-world Epic Cash content — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtAVEqKGgqY a challenge from one of our content creators to beat his 21 pull ups and get 100 epics! This has not been claimed yet — people need to step up 🙂 and to help that I will match another 100 Epic Cash to the first person to beat this Cryptodiffer Community I was watching some videos explaining how to send and receive transactions in EpicCash, which consists of ports and sending links, my question is why this is so, which, for now, looks complex? Let’s talk about the economic model, can EpicCash comply with the concept of value reserve? Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash In V3, which is coming later this summer, Epic can be sent over Tor, which eliminates this issue of port opening, even though using tools like ngrok.io, it’s not necessarily as painful as directly configuring the router ports. Early Lightning Network had this issue as well and it’s something we have a plan to address via research into non-interactive transactions. “Fire and Forget” payments to an address, as people are used to in Bitcoin, is coming to Epic and we’re excited to develop functionality that other advanced mimblewimble coins don’t yet have. We are committed to constant improvement in usability and utility, to make our money system the ease of use leader. We are involved in the project (anyone can join the Freeman Family) because we believe that simply by choosing to use a form of money that better aligns with our ideals, that we can make a positive change in the world. Some of my thoughts about how I got involved are here: https://medium.com/epic-cash/the-freeman-family-e3b9c3b3f166 Max Freeman Project Lead at Epic Cash Huge thanks to our friends Maks and Vladyslav, we welcome everyone to come say hi at one of our friendly communities. It is extremely early in this journey, our market cap is only 0.5m right now, whereas the 3 other mimblewimble coins are at $20m, $30m and $100m respectively. Epic is a historic opportunity to follow in the footsteps of legends such as Bitcoin and Monero, and we hope to become the first Top 5 privacy coin project. Xenolink Advisor at Epic Cash Would like to Thank the Cryptodiffer Team and the Cryptodiffer community for hosting us and also engaging with us to learn more about Epic. If anyone else has more questions and wants to know more about EPIC , can find us at our telegram channel at https://t.me/EpicCash . Yoga Dude Pr&Marketing at Epic Cash Thank you, CryptoDiffer Team, and this wonderful Community!!! Cryptodiffer TEAM Thank you everyone for taking your time and asking great questions Thank you for your time, it was an insightful session Spread the love
For Trading JUNE 25TH COVID-19 Sends Market Lower Oil and Gold Close Lower Russell & Transports Lead Decline Today’s market was a debacle from the start and all day it just continued to get worse. The DJIA finished -710.16 (2.72%), NASDAQ -222.20 (2.19%), S&P 500 -80.96 (2.69%), the Russell, the biggest loser was -49.60 (3.45%) followed closely by the Transports -282 (3%). Market internals on the NYSE was 7:1, while NASDAQ was a tamer 4.5:1. On the DJIA all 30 were down with BA -76, UNH -59, GS -47, V -45, AAPL -44 and MMM-40 DP’s. Volume was slightly lower than yesterday. All S&P sectors were lower with energy, financials, & industrials were the weakest while utilities were the least bad…I really hate to put it that way. We added some CVS 7/67.50 calls on the decline with an average price of $1.16 and they finished $ .69, and the NEM 7/17 $60’s @ 1.55 and added to on Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94 this morning. They closed the day $1.99. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/BiGKoiGKXVw SECTORS: The news of COVID-19 surges in cases to new highs has set the market on its ear. There are now 9 “hot-spots” that include CA, AZ, TX, FL, MI, AR, WI, SC, NC., and NY, NJ, and CT have put travelers from those places on 14 quarantine. Later in the day NV started mandatory masks for everyone in casino/hotels. For a look at how ALL the states are doing use this link: https://rt.live/ Airline, cruise lines, hotels and resorts all took it on the chin on the news. As I mentioned in my video (link just above), there was an article in Barron’s online this evening talking about Southwest Air (LUV) having started a fare war. Not exactly the truth since they have 2 annual “Fare Sales” early in the year for summer travel and summer for holiday travel. But the article also mentioned Allegiant Air (ALGT) $107.89, a budget carrier with an all AIRBUS fleet and well positioned to compete in the coming cutthroat recovery. Their margins were 21% and the expected burn rate of only $2 million a month for Q2 turned cash-flow positive as of May. Definitely one to watch since it’s also very close to support around $100. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -2.26, BGS +.43, FLO +.09, CPB +.28, CAG +.08, MDLZ -1.28, KHC -.34, CALM +.13, JJSF -5.41, SAFM -3.75, HRL +.10, SJM -.69, PPC -.49, KR +.65 and PBJ $30.70 -.25 (.83%). BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -5.09, ABBV -2.12, REGN -23.72, ISRG -33.56, GILD +.74, MYL -.22, TEVA -.36, VRTX -4.62, BHC -.87, INCY -2.19, ICPT -3.26, LABU -3.77, and IBB $136.25 -2.40 (1.73%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.34, CGC -.51, CRON -.18, GWPH -3.40, ACB +.31, CURLF -.27, KERN -.10 and MJ $13.17 - .39 (2.88%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -11.70, GD -7.75, TXT -1.55, NOC -4.10, BWXT -2.07, TDY -8.14, RTX -2.84 and ITA $160.71 -7.38 (4.39%). RETAIL was LOWER with M -.46, JWN -1.22, KSS -1.50, DDS -.90, WMT -1.08, TGT -1.85, TJX -1.75, RL -2.81, UAA -.50, LULU -6.46, TPR -.90, CPRI -.83, and XRT $41.58 -1.52 (3.53%). FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -31.98, AMZN -39.41, AAPL -7.58, FB -8.74, NFLX -10.21, NVDA -9.60, TSLA -50.78, BABA -2.75, BIDU -2.33, CMG +4.14, CAT -4.24, BA -12.58, DIS -4.74, and XLK $102.26 -2.37 (2.26%). FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -7.65, JPM -3.13, BAC -1.09, MS -1.09, C -2.43, PNC -4.48, AIG -1.75, TRV -3.33, AXP -4.17, V -6.22, and XLF $22.98 -.84 (3.53%). OIL, $38.01 -2.36. Oil was lower all day and couldn’t manage to hold any rally and fell right thru immediate support. I mentioned in last night’s video that it appears that prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00 but it will have to reverse quickly. The stocks were lower with XLE $37.11 -2.18 (5.55%). GOLD $1775.10 -6.90 It was a clean breakout and a continuation of the rally today, closing practically on the highs. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, and additional 50% @ $1.30 on Friday. We sold half on the 100% Up Rule @ $2.94 yesterday and we closed $1.99 today. BITCOIN: closed $9,285 -375. After trading back to 9,180 we tried to rally and failed. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $10.20 -.74 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading JUNE 9th NASDAQ at New High, S&P + For Year U.S. DOLLAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN Today’s market was just another day dominated by a single stock, at least initially, and BA was its name. Early in the day, when the NASDAQ was due lower, BA had added almost $200 DP’s to the average and after a while the rest of them got pulled along. At the end of the day, the DJIA was +461.46 (1.7%), NASDAQ +110.67 (1.13%), S&P-500 +38.46 (1.2%), the Russell +29.74 (1.97%) and the DJ Transports +179.89 (1.82%). Market internals were strong with NYSE A/D 4:1 while NASDAQ lagged 2.6:1 while volume was higher. The DJIA was 25 up /5 down with BA adding $173 DP’s and the next highest gainer was MCD +38. There were no other major movers, but BA is up another $7.00 in late trading. All 11 S&P sectors were higher with energy, real estate, utilities, and industrials while the least up were materials and technology. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/jkbGKvNZ2FM SECTORS: The big news was no news initially with BA piggy backing on all of the airline and hospitality stocks recent recovery and the planned reopening of the American economy. BA was trading up about $17 pre-open but by the time the bell actually rang it opened that 17 and immediately added to those gains and by the end of the day it had traded $234.20 and finished +25.07 (12.2%). But it wasn’t done there, in afterhours trading it touched 238.50 and is currently only .01 off that price. Last Monday it had traded $144 and has gone on a 6-day tear of $95 or 66%. And that doesn’t take into account that on its recent decline it went from a high of 446 to a low of 89, so at today’s close we are up 170% since late March. But, the most amazing thing about today’s moves were the fact that at least one company, HTZ, has actually declared bankruptcy and after trading $ .40 just 10 days ago after the filing, it started at $.80 last Thursday and today managed to close $5.53 +2.96 (115%) and is currently trading $6.70 +1.17 in after hours. Yes, I did say it declared bankruptcy, and yes there are those who will speculate on just about anything, but $6.70 is a touch pricey when 99% of bankruptcies end with the equity owners being wiped out! And, last, I would have thought that this one was the HOMERUN of the DAY this morning when I talked about it pre-open, ENOB, Enochian Biosciences, when the news of their cure for HIV was the topic of discussion. I had it $17.00 +12.88 or 312%, but the best it could do was to open $12.67, hit $13.43 and then start to slide. It finished $6.06 +1.94 (47%) and is a few cents lower in afterhours. With today’s action in hospitality and Oil related names it probably doesn’t make the top 50 stocks with that gain. FOOD SUPPLY: was HIGHER with TSN +1.65, FLO +.45, CAG +.51, MDLZ +1.08, KHC +1.03, CALM +.37, JJSF +3.49, SAFM +6.57, LANC +2.42, GO -1.33, HRL +.11, SJM +3.73, PPC +1.99 and PBJ $32.14 +.51 (1.61%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB -5.46, ABBV +.75, REGN +7.04, ISRG -.06, GILD +.32, MYL +1.22, TEVA +.06, VRTX -.68, BHC +1.26, INCY +1.07, ICPT +4.40, LABU +2.65 and IBB $133.20 +1.85 (1.41%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +1.16, CGC +1.49, CRON +1.45, GWPH +2.98, ACB +2.01, PYX +1.40, NBEV +.33, CURLF +.13, KERN +2.04 and MJ $15.27 +1.23 (8.76%). DEFENSE was HIGHER with LMT + 3.75, GD +5.53, TXT +1.43, NOC +4.90, BWXT +2.73, TDY +3.44, RTX +2.35 and ITA $193.84 +6.97 (3.73%). RETAIL was HIGHER with M +2.17 +24.74%) on the news that it raised $4.5billion in financing, JWN +1.34, KSS +3.42, DDS +2.11, WMT -.49, TGT +.84, TJX +.49, RL +.69, UAA +.78, LULU -4.72, TPR +.72, CPRI +2.43 and XRT $45.35 +1.00 (2.25%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +8.48, AMZN +43.00 (1.73%) on news of a new high price target of $3,300, the highest on the street, AAPL +1.30, FB -.03, NFLX -3.60, NVDA -5.70, TSLA +58.84 (6.64%), BABA -.61, BIDU +2.62, CMG -5.71, CAT +2.60, BA +33.99 (16.55%), DIS +2.39, and XLK $101.92 +.51 (.50%). FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +2.39, JPM +2.40, BAC +.52, MS +.63, C +3.13, PNC +2.97, AIG +3.14, TRV +3.14, AXP +3.67, V +.29, and XLF $26.74 +.50 (1.91%). OIL, $38.19 -1.36. Oil has managed to trade $40.44 today and fell back to the 5-day MA and closed there. We are trading up about .50 tonight and the stocks didn’t even blink at the decline. In fact, people came after every little depressed stock and many have moved several 100% in the past few days. The stocks were higher and XLE was $47.39 +2.55 (5.69%). METALS, GOLD: $1,705.10 +22.10. After trading down to $1671 last week we had a bounce higher today and although it was an “inside-day” we closed at the highs. The action in the US$ is projecting higher prices for the metals, but it does not necessarily trade with the dollar on a day by day basis. Support is around Friday’s lows. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM yesterday @ $58.86. BITCOIN: closed $9,780 -20. After breaking down from just over 10,000 and trading as low as 8630 last Tuesday we have been clawing our way back toward 10,000. Last week we traded over $10500 but fell all the way back to the lows, but we’ve moved back toward $10,000. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $11.58 + .33 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
Last year everyone was going bonkers for Bitcoin, and that’s no surprise, seeing as how the number one cryptocurrency had an absolutely explosive price performance in 2017. Things have cooled off in 2018 as prices fell significantly, however many are still bullish about Bitcoin’s long-term potential. Buy Bitcoin. Purchase Bitcoin using a credit card or with your linked bank account via an online exchange. Learn More. Use Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Send real money quickly to anywhere in the world, basically for free. Learn More. Play Games with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Bitcoin Games is a provably fair gaming site. via CoindeskAccording to Glassnode, there are now just 103 addresses holding at least 10K Bitcoin (BTC-USD) - that's the lowest amount since May 2019, and down 8% over the last 2.5 months.At Bitcoin Statistics. Current Bitcoin (Bitcoin) price is 9163.78 USD. It has a current circulating supply of 18,437,700 BTC coins and a Market Cap of $168,959,000,000 USD. Bitcoin stock price is up by (0.48%) today.$13,548,000,000 USD worth of Bitcoin (BTC) has been traded in the past 24 hours. You can follow Bitcoin (BTC)'s progress by adding it to your favourites and creating a free portfolio Bitcoin Statistics. Current Bitcoin (Bitcoin) price is 9155.02 USD. It has a current circulating supply of 18,437,800 BTC coins and a Market Cap of $168,799,000,000 USD. Bitcoin stock price is up by (0.21%) today.$13,861,700,000 USD worth of Bitcoin (BTC) has been traded in the past 24 hours. You can follow Bitcoin (BTC)'s progress by adding it to your favourites and creating a free portfolio
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