How to Read Sports Lines | SportsRec

Win, Win, Win then Lose Everything *need advice*

Hey everyone, I’ve been using this reddit for a while, mainly to make myself feel better by hearing about others similar (or in many cases, very much worse situations). I’ll give you a short background on myself and gambling;
Since I was about 5 years old I’ve been exposed to gambling. My father bet, my family bet, and anyone close to me gambled. I always knew they lost money but for me it seemed different. After I got older around 16-17 I started gambling on fantasy football leagues. $20 here and $20 there for the potential return of hundreds was amazing. I won a few of those and even won my freshman year of college March madness tournament that raked in $500+! Soon after this I found a bookie that offered online wagering. I won some and loss some, but my weeks never ended with winning or losing more than $200. One week I even won $900 betting NBA, NHL, and NFL was my speciality (I’m a favorites whore to say the least lol) On top of the world and thinking I knew what I was doing I started to increase my wager size. Soon after I realized that my EV (expected value) became negative placing sports wagers and I turned 21 with about a clean slate and $4K saved up. Good summer job that raked in nearly $12k last summer and then I started to go to the casinos...
While I had everything under control and never lost more than $400 in a night and won as much as $1200 in my first night gambling at Atlantic City, I still felt positive that I could beat the house. I knew I loved gambling but never admitted I had a problem. I was winning money for Christ’s sake, but I. Was. Addicted.
Over the last 9 months I was going to the casino 5-6 nights a week. I thought I had things under control by cashing out when I hit my goal $200/300/400 and trying to leave when I would lose my cash I brought with me (usually max $350) BUT I COULDNT ACCEPT A LOSS. I’d say about 75% of nights I would cash out up my goal, but on bad nights...I’d hit the ATM 3 or 4 times until my withdrawal limit of $1000 was reached that night. Going home pissed off and sad was the worst but it made me appreciate winning so much more..and I always seemed to make it back. One night I lost $950 and the following week I won 6 nights in a row pocketing more than $2000. The casino I regularly used told me I was up close to $7000 on their rewards system since I was using them, and I’ve been to casinos across NY, WV, and even PA never being down or up more than $500, but I did have my go to casino which had me UP.
Starting in January things took a turn for the absolute worst. I lost $2500 in 2 weeks at my favorite casino and resorted back to online gambling. I started to win $1000+ a week and some weeks I would lose $1200+ but I still had money in my bank to keep me afloat. A few bad weeks and I started really stressing. My savings hit about $3000 and I graduated college a year ago. Student loans started to hit and my gambling to pay these off got more severe. I started making stupid plays and betting more than anyone should ever have to on basketball lines, tennis sets, and even volleyball. My bank account hit $1500 from the $15k I had less than 9 months prior (rent, student loans, and other expenses was what I attributed it to, but I know I’d have a lot more $ if I didn’t gamble)
Covid-19 quarantine hits and there are no casinos, no sports, and nothing to gamble on. I start going stir crazy as I am 100% addicted. Fanduel and DraftKings offer casino Promotions with their RNG platforms!?
I make my deposits and start winning instantly. $1000 here and $1800 on one of my best nights. I now have $4500 in my bank and can finally relax, right?? No. I start increasing my bets and the random number generator (RNG) turns into a rigged number generator. I start depositing more and more to try and make back the money I had at one point and the system keeps taking my money. One night I deposited $1600 into my account and lost it all. A couple weeks later and trying to stop gambling here and there, but only being successful for 5-6 days at a time before relapsing, I need help.
I want to stop gambling but I feel like that is who I am. I no longer have the funds to gamble and my bank account is at $1000 that I can’t touch. I have 2 jobs right now bringing in close to $2500 a month. I just want to be happy and enjoy life again without the urges to gamble but it’s too accessible. Gambling is a losing hobby, you lose money, friends, relationships, but most importantly your mind. Where do I go from here? How do I stop gambling for longer than a week? What’s life like on the other side of gambling? ...these are questions I ponder everyday. Thanks for reading and I wanted to thank you all for sharing your stories.
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[COMETS HARVEST] Utica Comets (33-21-3-2) vs. Charlotte Checkers (32-22-4-0)

THE COMETS HARVEST

 
Good afternoon Canucks Nation, it's time for another catch-up with the Farm!
 
Full disclosure, I am incredibly hungover. Last night I met up with a cousin of mine, whom I had not seen in over four years!
Like the genius I am, I didn't eat anything prior to meeting up, and then I went on to have seven or eight High Life IPA's thanks to my good friends at the Brewhall in Vancouver!
 
So yeah, expect run-on sentences, grammatical inconsistencies, and spelling errors? you bet!
 
Last night the Utica Comets eked out a 2-1 regulation victory over the Checkers, even after doing their usual second-period collapse where they got outshot 12-to-5.
 
Fortunately, stalwart rookie netminder, Michael Di Pietro, put up an impressive 33-save performance, posting a 0.971 save percentage and a 1.00 goals-against average.
 
Tonight, it looks like Cull will be giving Mikey a bit of a break, as Jake Kielly looks to get his first AHL start of the season.
 
One of the more notable things to note from the Comets win last night was Justin Bailey getting crushed along the end-boards by Cavan Fitzgerald. Last night's Game highlights, including the hit on Bailey, and Lind stepping up to "fight" Fitzgerald..
 
Although this is far from the same team that won the Calder Cup last season, the Checkers are a much tougher team than their record would indicate. Comets coming away with four points off this double-header weekend will do wonders for their playoff push.
 
The Comets record in the second game of back-to-backs remains at seven wins, nine losses, and one shootout loss.
Slightly under a 0.500 points-earned-percentage
 
THE STARTING LINEUP
 
LW C RW
Baertschi (#47) Camper (#19) Boucher (#24)
Bailey (#95) Hamilton (#36) Lind (#13)
LeBlanc (#3) Stevens (#16) Perron (#27)
Stevenson (#26) Graovac (#44) Jasek (#9)
 
LD RD
Sautner (#6) Rafferty (#25)
Petgrave (#22) Chatfield (#5)
Teves (#4) Eliot (#52)
 
G
Jake Kielly
 
INJURY REPORT -- -- -- -- --
Dylan Blujus David Pope (concussion) Vinny Arseneau (done for the season) Jonah Gadjovich (ill) Carter Bancks (lower body) Olli Juolevi (hip soreness)
 
Healthy Scratches -- --
Guillaume Brisebois (technically) Nikolay Goldobin (vet) Seamus Malone
 
Goldobin gets the veteran-scratch for a third consecutive game. Have to feel for the guy, but hard to ignore how ineffectual he has been at 5-on-5.
 
With Blujus out with injury, Sautner slides back in with Rafferty as the team's top pair. He took a dirty hit in the first period from last night's action and is feeling the effects today. That opens the door, again, for Josh Teves and Mitch Eliot to come into the lineup to try and impress the bench boss for more ice-time.
 

1st period

 
[Comets in White]
 
 

The score at the end of the 1st period: 1-0 Checkers

 
Not sure I like Graovac on the first powerplay unit, the guy simply doesn't have the legs to chase down pucks along the wall.
Overall, it was a bit of a hot-and-cold period of play from the Comets. To start, the team was giving up some high-danger scoring opportunities, but by periods-end, they managed to reel the Checkers back.
Both teams are doing well at holding each other to the outside perimeter for shots.
Have to feel for Kielly, a bit, on that opening-goal as there was literally nothing he could do to stop that one. Penalty-killers have to do better at clearing space around Kielly's net, so he has clear sight-lines on the puck.
The dreaded enemy of the Comets, the second-period, could mean a comeback opportunity, or a full collapse. Fingers crossed its the former. Points are critical these days as two teams behind them in the standings, the Binghamton Devils and Laval Rocket, are both on decent win streaks to put them in contention for playoff spots. The Comets already got two points off this conference-foe, but another point or two could be all the difference between getting in or falling out.
 

2nd Period

 
 

The score at the end of the 2nd period: 2-1 Checkers

 
So tilting, realizing I didn't have sound captured through the first twenty minutes of play.
Despite how dull the period was, the Comets did well to generate shots on goal, as they held the Checkers to just five total. One of those being a goal, but, HEY! Can't save 'em all!
Concerning that, Baertschi went down the tunnel with the athletic trainer seemingly unprovoked. Fingers crossed that this isn't concussion-related.
Kole Lind and Justin Bailey have had really impressive games so far, but have been unable to capitalize on any of the multiple scoring chances they've created.
 

3rd period

 
 

The score at the end of the 3rd period: 2-2 Tie

 
Fantastic battle from the Comets to even things up at two apiece
I originally had a point in my second-period musings that said the Comets shouldn't bank on getting another powerplay to try and even things up. But sure enough, that's exactly what it took, and Reid Boucher, once again, proves the COmets hero.
Loved the compete level from Kole Lind that entire third period. It genuinely felt like he was on the ice for 90% of the time — an impressive game from him to turn this game on its head for Utica.
 

Overtime

 
 

Final Score: 3-2 Utica Comets

 

Scoresheet

 
Period Team Goalscorer Primary assist helper type
1st CHA Ryan Bourque Joey Keane Gustav Forsling PPG
2nd CHA Mark Cooper Clark Bishop Jacob Pritchard 5v5
2nd UTI Reid Boucher Brogan Rafferty Carter Camper PPG
3rd UTI Reid Boucher Tyler Graovac Carter Camper PPG
OT UTI Kole Lind Brogan Rafferty -- 3v3
 

Takeaways

 
 

Comets Three Stars

HM: Carter Camper
 
The Comets Trajectory?
 
The Comets win tonight moves them into second place, as they edge the Rochester Americans on regulation-wins. The Comets will look to maintain that place in the standings when they return home this upcoming Wednesday, as they take on division-rival, the Syracuse Crunch.
 
As always, if you want to read up on this Comets Harvest or the 2018-19 Farmies editions, you can find them all at my Comets Harvest Blog here
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[COMETS HARVEST] Utica Comets (31-21-3-2) vs. Rochester Americans (31-18-4-5)

THE COMETS HARVEST

 
The Utica Comets are inside the final 20 games of the season, and holy guacamole, do they have a month in store for them!
 
Two 3-in-4's to start the month, then a Tuesday game that immediately follows a double-header weekend. Afterwards, it's a triple header, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, mid-month, concluding with two more 3-in-4's at the close of March and start of April.
 
Did I mention that only nine of those thirteen games are against divisional opponents? Meaning, the Comets can't afford to slip up anywhere this month. A losing streak at any point this month could mean a freefall out of a Calder Playoff spot.
 
Hot off the heels of a disappointing drubbing by the Laval Rocket, the Comets will start this month against the North Divisions, second-place, Rochester Americans, an all too familiar foe of the farms.
 
The Comets' last game against the Amerks was an interesting one. Despite getting thoroughly out-attempted at 5-on-5, the Comets managed to earn two big points via the shootout.
There is an asterisk on the game, in that, the Comets arguably should have won in regulation. The referees missed a blatant trip against Sven Baertschi as he drove with the puck towards the empty-net. The non-call denied the Comets an automatic empty-netter goal-for, and on the ensuing 6v5, the Amerks managed to score in the final 28 seconds to force extra-time.
 
By no means did the Comets play a clean game against the Amerks. Getting out-attempted more than two-to-one across all-strength-situations means the team was basically in survival mode all game.
 
Out-attempted two-to-one is the common thread between all of the Comets/Amerks matchups this season.
 
Out of their seven-game head-to-head this season, the Comets have out-attempted the Amerks at 5-on-5, wait for it,
...once
 
No surprise, the only thing that has been separating wins from losses in this seven-game series, is goaltending.
 
The Comets are already seeing what can happen if they ride their goalie too hard. Mikey Di Pietro was making his ninth straight start for the Comets against Laval, pairing that with a blatantly lethargic Comets team in front of him, was a breeding ground for disaster.
 
Perhaps the past few days off has allowed the Comets to refill the stamina bars. Well, at least we hope they have because with two teams nipping at their heels for the third and fourth-place playoff spot, they can't afford any more performances like they had against Laval. Its Crunch time. But not literally Crunch time, because it's actually Amerk time ...you know what, you get the idea! Let's get into tonight's matchup!
 
THE STARTING LINEUP
 
LW C RW
Baertschi (#47) Camper (#19) Boucher (#24)
Lind (#13) Hamilton (#36) Bailey (#95)
LeBlanc (#3 Stevens (#16) Perron (#27)
Malone (#17) Graovac (#44) Stevenson (#26)
 
LD RD
Petgrave (#22) Rafferty (#25)
Sautner (#6) Blujus (#8)
Teves (#4) Eliot (#52)
 
G
Michael Di Pietro
 
INJURY REPORT -- -- -- -- --
Vinny Arseneau (done for the season) David Pope (concussion) Lukas Jasek (lower-body) Carter Bancks (lower-body) Olli Juolevi (hip soreness) Jonah Gadjovich (illness)
 
Healthy Scratches
Nikolay Goldobin (veteran)
 
So Stefan LeBlanc gets to slide back into the lineup, and impressively, moves into the top-9 alongside Stevens and Goldobin. Like the makeup of the line, a strong forechecking presence from LeBlanc could be a great compliment.
 
Goldobin gets the veteran scratch, which, I'm sure, is delightful for him.
 
Pretty surprised that Eliot and Teves can barely crack a healthy Comets roster, but when the Comets are down two d-men, they get paired together. It makes me question if its a matter of trust with Trent Cull, or if its a matter of skill. Both Teves and Eliot have looked perfectly adequate in the AHL this season. Obviously, when they are healthy, the Comets' third pair is a tough spot in the lineup to crack. It makes me wonder why Eliot and Teves weren't sent down to Kalamazoo to play out the entire season to get ample ice-time.
 
Have to feel for Olli Juolevi, man, injuries have just completely fucked up this kids' career path. Hip soreness for the second/third time this season is a bad look.

1st period

 
Comets in their Away whites
 
 

The score at the end of the 1st period: 1-0 Comets

 
That was a really fast-paced period of hockey, with zero penalties issued and only a few couple timeouts.
Comets still struggle mightily against the speed and size of the Amerks squad. The Comets do try to match the physicality brought by the Amerks, but, as you could see in a couple of those streamables, Amerks play a heavy game that even the veterans and toughest Comets players can't match.
Comets still electing to play that heavy four-deep in the o-zone style that gives opponents a jarring number of odd-man rushes-against.
 

2nd Period

 
 

The score at the end of the 2nd period: 1-1 Tie

 
Yikes, that was a rough period of hockey displayed by the Comets. After 40-minutes of action, the Comets find themselves getting outshot 30 to 17. Rochester is a volume team, who uses their speed and size to open up space for shots on goal. Utica is an opportunistic team, who uses their speed and vision to capitalize on errors for scoring chances. Unfortunately, Utica's approach to generating offense requires them to actually be in the offensive zone. Rewatch that streamable of the Comets standing still as the Amerks generate shots towards the net. The Comets fade the second they don't regain the puck in their zone.
 

3rd period

 
 

Final Score: 3-1 Utica Comets

 

Scoresheet

 
Period Team Goalscorer Primary assist helper type
1st UTI Stefan LeBlanc John Stevens -- 5v5
2nd ROC Taylor Leier Jean-Sebastien Dea Jacob Bryson PPG
3rd UTI Sven Baertschi Carter Camper Ashton Sautner 5v5
3rd UTI Tyler Graovac Justin Bailey Brogan Rafferty EN
 

Takeaways

 
 

Comets Three Stars

 
The Comets Trajectory?
 
Comets return this weekend for a double-header road trip against David Ayers' Charlotte Checkers, I won't be on recap duty for the Friday game, however, as I'll be meeting up with family whom I haven't seen in over four years! So expect another Comets Harvest, for Saturday's game only!
 
As always, if you want to read up on this Comets Harvest or the 2018-19 Farmies editions, you can find them all at my Comets Harvest Blog here
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Keeping it in Perspective - Games 58-62

For those of you picking up the Perspective posts for the first time, here is your catch-up reading....
Original Post
Update #1
Update #2
Update #3
Update #4
Update #5
Update #6
TLDR: I'm breaking the Habs' season down into 5-game segments and adding in some statistic-based introspective to help you weed through the hype and hysteria and come out sane on the other end.
This segment was a rough one so let's not waste any time and just rip off the bandaid...
Games 58-62 (ARI-BOS-PIT-DAL-DET)
Target Points: 6
Actual Points: 1
Surplus Points: -5
Total Deficit/Surplus: -12
I'd love to sugar-coat how bad this segment of games went but sugar-coated crap is still crap. This week was all about blown leads and blowouts. Somehow we managed to relinquish leads of 2-0 to ARI, 3-0 to DAL and 2-1 (and 3-1) to DET. Sometimes I wonder if I'd be happier if I'd turned off the TV at the 10:00 mark of the 2nd Period of every game and just called it a night. Throw in a pair of 4-1 losses to PIT and Pastrnak & Co and we manage to limp away from this week with 1 point. (Cue Harry Doyle - "1 Point? That's all we got...1 goddamned point?"). For a team with 2x 8-Game Winless streaks on their record already, dropping another 5 straight was strangely unexpected and painful. With a deficit of -12 points and only 20 remaining games, we now need 9 of every 10 available points to hit the season goal of 98 points. .900 hockey seems like a lot to ask from a team barely cruising along at .500 and with a losing home record.
Still, there were positives on the week highlighted by the returns of Drouin, Byron & Weber, the 2nd (& conditional 4th) we acquired on the Scandella deal, and the ongoing emergence of Nick Suzuki. A few positive notes on our super-rookie:

With those happy thoughts firmly in mind, let's move forward to the next segment of games.
Games 63-67 (WAS-OTT-VAN-NYR-CAR)
If I'm a betting man, I'm laying down even odds that Ovi breaks his slump and notches 699 & 700 on Thursday. With MB finally acknowledging the fact that we're not making the playoffs and starting to convert assets into futures, I expect the positive energy surrounding the team to begin to wain. If we drop both the WAS and OTT games, I also expect we'll be shopping for a new Head Coach once the trade deadline passes. Frankly, even 2 wins may not be enough to save CJ's considering the volume of leads we've proven incapable of protecting. The only x-factor is Geoff Molson's willingness to swallow $5M/season for the remainder of CJ's contract. Moving on, it's difficult to handicap the VAN-NYR-CAR games as we really have no idea which players will still be wearing the CH come Monday afternoon. We could be seeing a steady diet of Weal/Cousins/Weise for the foreseeable future.

For the deep dive this week, I'm actually revisiting the PJ Stock comments from last week where he critiques Trevor Timmins' inability to scout and draft 70-point players. Assuming that a 70-point scorer is the benchmark for a successful draft, I wanted to take a look at how many of these magical unicorns have actually been available to Timmins at the time of the Habs' first draft pick. After all, criticizing Timmins for not being able to draft Jonathan Toews 3rd overall in 2006 seems a bit harsh considering we didn't get a pick until 20th. (Full Disclosure: I originally posted this in the PJ Stock/Trevor Timmins discussion post but there were a few additional points I wanted to add so my apologies for those of you who may be reading this again.)
Let’s talk actual numbers:
Considering that we obviously can’t draft a 70-point player that was drafted before we got our 1st pick in a draft year, let’s take a look at how many 70-point players were drafted AFTER our 1st pick. I’m omitting the ridiculous 2003 greatest draft in history because EVERYBODY missed out on a dozen 70-point scorers. For the record, here are a few of the 2003 later picks that were passed over in the first round (further proving that scouting, drafting and developing is NOT an exact science), Bergeron (45), Weber (49), Backes (62), Pavelski (205) & Byfuglien (245).
When you look at the players who have become 70-point scorers, the vast majority of them were drafted within the top 15 picks of their draft years. Montreal's average 1st round draft position during the Timmins years has been 19th.
Before the list, I also took a look at how prevalent 70-pointers are in the NHL. Since 2004/05, there are on average 29.5x 70-point scorers every season or 1 per team. So why haven't we had any of these players? We actually have. Domi in 18/19 (72), Plekanec in 09/10 (70), Kovalev in 07/08 (84) & Koivu in 06/07 (75). In addition, the Timmins-drafted Pacioretty had seasons of 65-67-64-67 from 11/12-16/17...not quite 70 but not far off.
Here's the list of all of the eventual 70-point scorers who were available to TT after our 1st pick:
2004 - Krejci (63)
2005 - Kopitar (11), Neal (33), Stastny (44). FYI we drafted Price 5th and our next pick was 45th
2006 - Giroux (22), Foligno (28), Marchand (71)
2007 - Benn (129)
2009 - O’Reilly (33)
2010 - Kuznetzov (26)
2011 - Kucherov (58), Trochek (64), Gaudreau (104)
2012 - Hertl (17)
2013 - Guentzel (77)
2014 - Point (79)
2015 - Aho (35)
2016 - DeBrincat (39)
There are a total of 18 players here that we actually could have drafted; an average of just over 1/year.
I would argue that we didn’t actually "miss out" on the 2005 crop of 70-point scorers since we got Price and didn’t pick again until they were off the board so make that number 15 for an average of exactly 1/year.
Consider as well that 3 teams who drafted these eventual 70-point players TRADED THEM before they hit that mark. (Stastny, Foligno, O’Reilly). This suggests that even after they’ve drafted the player, a team doesn’t always know what they have.
Stock makes it sound like teams draft these later picks with full knowledge of what they’ll become and therefore it must be easy to identify, draft & develop these players when in reality, 1 team every year gets lucky enough to pick in the right spot to find a gem.
If Stock thinks he’s figured out the draft cheat code for 70-point players, why haven’t we hired him yet?
I'll check back in after the CAR game and we'll take stock of how the team looks from a personnel & points perspective...until then, Vive Les Glorieux!
Edit: Koivu brain fart
submitted by Et-Le-But to Habs [link] [comments]

[COMETS HARVEST] Utica Comets (5-0-0-0) vs. Binghamton Devils (2-3-2-0)

THE COMETS HARVEST

 
Merry weekend to all in Canucks nation! Tonight couldn't be a better night for Canuck-hockey. As those of us in BC hunker down for windstorm 2k19, what better way to spend the evening than by watching the Farm-team try and make it an unprecedented six in a row to start the season.
 
Tonight the Comets see the return of Ashton Sautner as well as the season debut of Adam Gaudette. Despite his impressive pre-season, and solid play in his few NHL starts, his play wasn't enough to warrant a long-term look with the club. Gaudette joins a club that has been dominating the AHL in goalscoring to start the season.
Since moving to center full-time, Lukas Jasek has shown to have decent chemistry playing alongside Sven Baertschi and Nikolay Goldobin. Most would assume Gaudette would move to a line with Baertschi, in an attempt to rekindle their pre-season chemistry. But it might not be the optimal move for the club long-term.
 
Tonight's opponent for the Comets are their Division Rivals, the Binghamton Devils. Binghamton comes into tonight's game after having ended a four-game losing streak, Wednesday night, in a 4-1 victory over the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins.
 
LW C RW
Boucher (#24) Camper (#19) Lind (#13)
Goldobin (#77) Jasek (#9) Baertschi (#47)
Bailey (#95) Gaudette(#88) MacEwen (#15)
Arseneau (#18) Perron (#27) Bancks (#34)
LD RD
Brisebois (#55) Rafferty (#25)
Juolevi (#48) Sautner (#6)
Teves (#4) Chatfield (#5)
G
McIntyre (G)
 
Adam Gaudette, rocking number 88, slots between the all-speed-pair of Justin Bailey and Zack MacEwen. I'm looking forward to seeing what those three can put together tonight. If this line uses their speed like I know they can, I'm going to call them the Gigawatt-line.
Disappointed to see Blujus get benched, but understand he has it tough playing behind Sautner, Chatfield, and Rafferty. Blujus, honestly, played like a guy who should be in the regular lineup over Chatfield or Sautner. He plays like a pro, chipped in offensively, played physical, and was sound in the defensive-end. I do hope Blujus gets an extended look with the d-corps as the season progresses along. I like his ability to contribute all-over as opposed to someone like Chatfield, who plays physical, skates hard, but has offense evaporate on his stick.
Seamus Malone looked OK in his first games since returning from IR. Given how incredibly deep the Farm is right now; however, he'll need to absolutely light it up in his opportunities to get himself a consistent spot in the teams bottom-6.
 
RE: INJURY REPORT
 
Injury Report --
Jonah Gadjovich(upper-body) Tyler Graovac (knee)
 
Healthy Scratches -- -- -- -- --
Stefan LeBlanc Dyson Stevenson Dylan Blujus Seamus Malone Wacey Hamilton (vet) Richard Bachman
 

1st period

 
Comets in their Green/White Thirds'
 
 

Score at the end of the First Period: 2-0 Comets

 
The Comets, once again, start with a dominant period of hockey. The fourth line with Francis Perron centering has been a threat every-time they've been on the ice too. Really liking what I'm seeing from Perron tonight, he'd otherwise been quiet to start the year. This is his first "noticeable" effort. Josh Teves is looking good tonight as well, showing crisp skating and puck control. Brisebois and Sautner are a reliable pairing, but neither are moving the needle offensively; I think Brisebois had 2-3 shots that each sailed high and wide of the goal. Otherwise, the team looked good to start, a few giveaway blunders, but McIntyre has been solid. Comets outshot the Devils 12-to-6 after 20 minutes of play.
 

2nd Period

 
 

The Score at the end of the 2nd Period: 3-1 Comets

 
Well, the Comets regained the two-goal lead. However, the second period was quite messy — really bizarre play-reads by the Comets blueliners. The forward groups also appear to be struggling to gain and establish a cycle in the Devils zone. Comets were out possessed and outshot 12-to-10 after 20 minutes of play. They start the third with a minute-and-a-half of powerplay time.
 

3rd Period

 
 

Final Score: 5-1 Utica Comets

 

Scoresheet

 
Period Team Goalscorer Primary assist helper type
1st Utica Carter Bancks Francis Perron -- 5v5
1st Utica Vincent Arseneau Francis Perron Brogan Rafferty 5v5
2nd Binghamton Chris Conner Michael McLeod -- 5v5
2nd Utica Reid Boucher Olli Juolevi Nikolay Goldobin PPG
3rd Utica Vincent Arseneau Carter Bancks Francis Perron 5v5
3rd Utica Kole Lind Carter Camper Reid Boucher EN
 

Takeaways

 
Big Vin spent the majority of his pro career in the ECHL until he earned a 20 game PTO with the Comets in 2017-18. Last season, Arseneau surprised many when he ended up 9th in team goalscoring after playing only 38 games. After six games this season, Vin has picked up three goals, and one assist after six games exclusively playing on the fourth line. The guy can hit hard, can score beauty goals, and can transition the puck. He's a legit threat whenever he's on the ice because I don't think opponents expect a 6'2" 216-pound left-winger to be able to transition the puck as well as he can.
This isn't a THRILLHOIAF "call-him-up" campaign or anything. This is just a write-up showing my appreciation for Arseneau's game, and overall improvement as a role-player who's become one of the Comets more underrated offensive threats. Granted, it is still incredibly early in the season; There are still 70 games remaining on the schedule. Regardless, I still liked what I saw from the big guy tonight.
 

Comets Three Stars

HM: Carter Bancks
 
The Comets Trajectory?
 
The Comets head out on the road Saturday night when they visit the Hershey Bears. Last season, the Bears and Comets split the season, with the Bears outscoring the Comets six-to-four after two games. Saturday's meeting will be just one of two games the two will play this season. The Comets leave for Hershey at midnight tonight, so exhaustion will likely be an important factor in the team's play tomorrow.
 
As always, if you want to read up on this Comets Harvest or the 2018-19 Farmies editions, you can find them all at my Comets Harvest Blog here
 
If you want a more condensed version of Comets recaps, you can now find MORE of my writing at thesinbin.net
submitted by THRILLHOIAF to canucks [link] [comments]

Fire Fenton

No, seriously. Fire this fucking guy.
Just read the most recent Russo Q & A on The Athletic site and it's made me even more upset at how piss-poor Fenton has done in his first year as GM. I've said it multiple times, but almost any member of this sub with half a brain could've done a better job than Fenton has.
Let's look at the Top 5 "Low"-lights of his tenure here:
1. Trading Granlund for Fiala.
As it turns out, Granlund was only available to one team, the Nashville Predators. This is because Fenton had his eyes set specifically on his guy, Kevin Fiala. Now, I have no issues with Fiala and think he'll develop into a Top 6 winger, but the fact that Fenton was only listening to offers for Granlund from one team is just asinine. You can't gauge the value of a player if you're hell-bent on trading that guy for one specific player. Not to mention that he didn't even ask Poille for a fucking pick back. What GM doesn't get a pick back as insurance when trading their best forward for an unknown commodity? It was a horrible trade that really makes me weary of Fenton's abilities to make beneficial trades.
2. Trading Nino for Rask
Nino finished his season with a stat line of 14 Goals, 16 Assists in 36 games with the Hurricanes.
Rask finished his season with a stat line of 2 Goals, 1 Assist in 23 games with the Wild.
This trade from the very start was one that was marked with the reactions of, "Huh?" across the NHL. Fans of the Hurricanes had all but settled with the fact that Rask would be a buyout candidate in the off-season. So what does Fenton do? Well of course, he trades our 3rd best winger for him! I understand that Nino had a string of about 80+ games where he just wasn't performing, but you absolutely do not go out and trade a 26-year old winger because he's had a bad season. You definitely don't go and trade him for a fucking buy-out candidate. Nino has the potential to be a 30-30 guy, you're seeing it in Carolina. We all knew this, but Fenton didn't. This guy seemed to think he could get a grasp of what this team was based off of half a season of games. He doesn't have a fucking clue what the value of these players should be.
3. Selecting Filip Johansson with our 2018 1st Round Pick
Fenton came in really strong to start his career here. So strong that he drafted a late 2nd roundeearly 3rd rounder with his first pick. He identified that this team was really lacking at D and we definitely needed to reach to start developing more. I didn't have a problem selecting a defenseman with the pick though. In fact, 6 of the next 8 picks were for defensemen. I'd be willing to bet that few GMs had Johansson in front of any of them though.
4. Signing Staal to an extension at the deadline
Russo released that Boston was interested in sending a 1st + a player to Minnesota for Staal. Having already traded away Nino, Coyle, and Granlund, this trade should have been a no-brainer for Minnesota. We're clearly in the process of a rebuild and adding a 1st rounder for someone that could very likely re-sign here in the summer anyways is a great move. You'd have to be an idiot not to do this. Then, Minnesota signs Staal to a 2-year extension? So we trade away our forward core to get younger and we're clearly going to be a worse team for the next few years. However, Fenton thought it'd be a good idea to not trade away the only 30+ player on this team that has any value. It just makes absolutely no sense why you would not make that trade. If you want Staal, you approach him in the offseason and inquire about signing him. If you don't get him, that's fine. This team is in a re-build at this point, we'd only benefit from a few years of Top 10 picks.
5. Not trading Zucker
I like Zucker a lot, I'd love to have him on a competitive team. This team is not that. Fenton is clearly building a team that has a core of forwards that are 20-23 years old. Guys that will be similar in age to Kaprizov when he comes over. That's a fine plan and all, but we should probably start drafting high-end 18 year old forward prospects that could be in the NHL in 2 years. How do you do that? You acquire 1st round picks for your players, you draft forwards, and you finish in the bottom 10 of the league so you have a chance at the top pick. After trading Granlund and Nino, this is the route we should've taken. Maybe Fenton still trades Zucker in the off-season for a better 1st than Calgary's would've been, but he's already lost out on so much value.
Realistically, we should've gotten these additional picks in the trades that Fenton made/should've made:
1st for Nino
1st+ for Granlund
1st for Staal
1st for Zucker
2nd/3rd for Coyle (trade with Boston should've been contigent on making it further into the playoffs. I guarantee you Boston wouldn't have a problem giving a 1st in that trade on the condition that they win the Cup)
Our prospect pool would have been re-vamped and although we'd be stuck with Suter and Parise's contracts during a re-build, we would've just cleared $20M+ in space for the future. That money could've been used to re-sign Spurgeon, trade and sign for high-end forwards, and/or sign high-end UFAs to play alongside Kaprizov in 2020 or 2021.
Instead, we have a team that is very likely going to be good enough to be a bubble team and nothing else. This team got worse this season, but we still have the talent to be a decent team. Decent teams don't win Cups and this team isn't going to with Fenton at the helm.
submitted by SplurgingSpurgeon to wildhockey [link] [comments]

Prospect Writeup: Joe Velen

Overview:
Joe Veleno is a 19 year old center most recently from the Drummondville Voltigeurs out of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL). Veleno also played for the Saint John Sea Dogs, also of the QMJHL, before he was traded to Drummondville in the middle of the 2017-18 season. He was selected by the Detroit Red Wings 30th overall in 2018 NHL Entry Draft. Infamously, he is one of the 6 players granted Exceptional Status to play as 15 year olds in Canadian Hockey League (CHL). Veleno is currently listed standing at 6’1’’ and weighing in at 191 pounds.
Stats:
https://www.eliteprospects.com/playe271713/joe-veleno
Also here is a look at how Veleno compared against the Q last season. I wonder why I would link that… https://www.quanthockey.com/qmjhl/en/seasons/2018-19-qmjhl-players-stats.html
Development:
Veleno began his recorded hockey career playing two seasons with the Lac St-Louis Lions, one year with their Bantam AAA team and one year with their Midget team, in 2013-14 and 2014-15 respectively. Following from that, he became one of the six-ever players awarded by the CHL Exceptional Status, which essentially means that this player is so much better than his peers, he qualifies to not only to play in the CHL, but also as a 15 year old. Not only that, he was the first player to be given that status from Quebec. This puts him in a small list with players like John Tavares and Connor McDavid to also receive this honor. Following this event, Veleno was drafted 1st overall in the 2015 QMJHL Entry Draft by the Saint John Sea Dogs. Before he even laced up his skates to begin his CHL career, the expectations were sky-high for Veleno.
In his first season with Saint John in the 2015-16 season, he put together a stat-line of 13-30-43 (Goals-Assists-Total Points) in 62 games, good for 8th on the team. He also helped the Sea Dogs reach the 3rd round of the President’s Trophy with a line of 6-1-7 in 17 games. While this was not the “Exceptional” start that has been unfairly placed on his shoulders, he certainly demonstrated he belongs in the CHL.
In the next season, 2016-17, Saint John loaded up and where a dominant team all season and in the postseason, enroute to a President’s Cup championship. In his second season, Veleno was still only 16 for much of the season, and he potted 13-27-40 in the regular season while he posted 8-3-11 on that Cup run, through 45 and 18 games respectively. This is where the narrative that Veleno lacks offensive acumen starts to take shape. While for almost any other 16 year old he had a very good season, he was not able to force Saint John to play him in a bigger role. However, that Saint John team was very old, with the 8 players who scored more than him all being at least 19 to start the season, if not 20. By all accounts Veleno continued to play well
Veleno’s 2017-18 season, the one leading up to his draft, would see the beginning of what would become a dramatic shift in his career. He was named the captain of Saint John to start the year and went on to score a respectable but once again less than “Exceptional” line of 6-25-31 in 31 games. That Saint John team was hugely decimated and even though Veleno only played 31 games, in what would be his final season for the Sea Dogs, he still ended up 5th in their end of season scoring. At around the midpoint of the season, Veleno was dealt to the Drummondville Voltigeurs for three first round picks. Following that, his production noticeably took off, finishing the regular season with a line of 16-32-48 in only 33 games. What a difference playing on a team with Maxime Comtois makes, eh? This brought his regular season totals to 22-57-79 in 64 games, finishing one point behind some guy named Alexis Lafrienère. Veleno also helped propel Drummondville into the 2nd round of the playoffs and scoring 5-6-11 in 10 games.
Due to the concerns with his overall offensive production, that he did not tear the Q apart leading up to his draft year, he slipped all the way to Detroit at 30th over all. Now in his D+1 season, Veleno’s offense finally took off and showed the hockey world some of that much-maligned “Exceptional” talent. And it was glorious! To call his season anything short of dominant would be an under-statment. In a mere 59 regular season games, Veleno scored 42-62-104 good for 4th in points (behind 2 older players and 1 point behind Lafrienère, with each of those players playing more games than Veleno). Veleno lead the league in points per game (P/GP) at 1.763 for players who played in half of the games or more (looking at you Comtois!). After doing a bit of digging, that would put Veleno’s 18 year old season as the best scoring output in the Q since Nikolaj Ehlers and Conor Garland both hit 1.9 P/GP in 2014-2015. While I am sure Lafrienère is going to set the world on fire next season, we should feel at least slightly decent about what Veleno did. I will say however that Veleno’s offense cooled down a bit in the playoffs as Drummondville went out in the 3rd round and Veleno scored a decent line of 8-9-17 in 16 games.
Before moving on, one thing I will briefly cover has been the string of quiet performances he has had playing for Canada internationally. He has represented Canada in the World Hockey Championships (WHC) U17 in 2015-16, as well as the World Junior Championships U18 in 2017-18 and U20 tournaments in 2018-19. At the U17 he scored 1-3-4 in 5 games, at the U18 0-3-3 in 4 and finally the U20 with 0-2-2. None of these results were particularly impressive, although it seems as if Veleno is not well liked by the Canadian hockey king-makers and seems to have been poorly used. Even when he is not scoring, Veleno is skilled penalty killer and back checker, and it’s not like Canada has been doing well internationally as of late. Not like it was the best way for me to watch Veleno live or anything. I’m not salty, I swear!
Obligatory 2018-19 Highlight Video Link for the Lazy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UvFDExSL54
Also, here is 2017-18 because I’m nothing if not generous! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POmfjeAYL88
Projection:
Coming into his draft year, Veleno was seen as a solid bet to make the show, but that he would top out as middle six pass-first center who can be very good on the Penalty Kill (PK) and also helpful on the Power Play (PP). From what I remember reading, as projections came out closer to the draft a lot of hockey fans, media and even NHL scouting staffs thought he was a high-character, high-motor player who could skate like the wind but had a poor shot and lacking the offensive acumen to be a true top six (or at least 1st line) NHL forward. However, just before the start of his draft year, Veleno was solidly inside many people’s top 10 or 15. Go figure.
The superlative “200 foot player” is one that comes up a lot when people in the industry, be it media, coaches, General Managers or players, talk about in regards to how some players play the game. While that term is over used quite a bit, in this case I think it exemplifies the type of player he can round out to being at the NHL level. Veleno is a very hard working player and is a force on the PK and in his own zone. However, he also possesses elite speed and thrives in using it in addition to his creativity to find ways to get shots off. This is exemplified by the fact that he was tied for 2nd in the Q with 7 short handed goals last season, which was 1 more than he scored on the PP! This not say he is a slouch on the PP, as he has consistently been a difference maker for both Saint John and Drummondville on the PP, but more in the role of a facilitator.
Watching shift-by-shift and highlight videos (as well as few games), I was consistently blown away at his vision, and I appreciated the fact that he never took a shift off even if the bounces weren’t going his way. He is someone who is always looking to make a play with the puck and find an open teammate. While I do not want to say that he has put to bed the concerns about his offensive game, I don’t think any player in 2018 exceeded expectations more than he.
Finally, I would say that Wings fans the world over should be immensely excited by Veleno. While I am loathe to use this term, if his offense carries over against men in the American Hockey League (AHL) this upcoming season, the term “star” may start to be applicable. While his leadership, skating, effort and defensive play all seem translatable, and are why at worst he will be a good top nine player, it is his vision and passing ability that makes me excited. If I had to find a few non-Wings to compare him to, I think Jonathan Toews would be the absolute peak he could become, while among players just drafted I see him as similar to Alex Turcotte but with less injury concerns.
TLDR; I spent too much time summarizing a 19 year old’s hockey career, go read it!
submitted by 2MGoBlue2 to DetroitRedWings [link] [comments]

Breadispain's NHL DFS Overview

Slate Overview
Example
Matchup | Back-to-Back | Points (Halved) | Goals per Game Average, Expected Goals per Game, Shooting Percentage, Corsi for Percentage, Shots per Game Average | Goals Against per Game Average, Expected Goals Against per Game, Save Percentage, Corsi Against Percentage | Powerplay Percentage, Penalty Kill Percentage | Games Played Over Last 2 Seasons, Wins, Goals, Ceiling, Floor, Average | Vegas Odds | Win Percentage | Projection (WIP) | OveUnder Expectation
Data Breakdown
The data above is entered in part by me from ShrpSports results over the previous two + current season and part automation from various other sources for the season. It’s also worth taking the time to look at recent data from Natural Stat Trick for each team as the season goes on. In general I’d also advise serious restraint during the month of October while lines and systems are settling and the sample size is small. The whole point of using data to build your lineups is to reduce randomness, so save your money for when the league is more predictable. There’s enough variance in DFS hockey to worry about already.
You’ll likely notice there’s little consistency between xGF/60 (expected goals for per game) and GF/G (actual goals for per game). You can read a very in depth article about this here, but my TL;DR is that it’s moderately better at predicting actual goals for than Corsi, but not actually so useful as to matter to me on a nightly basis. It does tend to stand out to me if there’s a drastic disparity between what’s expected and what’s delivered in anticipation of some positive regression from underachieving teams, but that’s about it. That’s also to emphasize Corsi (read more here), a metric measuring the number of shots attempt made, also isn’t very strongly correlated with goals scored. What I personally do like Corsi for is determining how much it diminishes the opposition from scoring, as they’ll possess the puck less often. SF/G (shots for per game), SA/G (shots against per game) and GAA (goals against average) are definitely factors I consider when making my goaltender selections, as you want a goalie that faces a lot of shots but lets few into the net. Though Vegas odds is a good way of determining where the chalky plays are likely to be tonight, it’s at best a 60% crapshoot for which team will actually win and Vegas does not care a bit whether your goalie lets in 4 in 20 shots for that win. Finally, though I also take this with a grain of salt, I personally place a lot more weight on past performance between two teams than what their overall data implies, especially if there’s a player that tends to perform especially well vs a specific team. I’m gradually trying to hone a projection system that factors in historical data, Vegas odds and advanced metrics as a predictive tool, but while it’s been marginally more effective than Vegas odds or historical data alone (roughly 64.85% vs 59% this season), it’s still no substitute for personal analysis.
Tournament Slates
Typically the main NHL slates are Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, though there are some better slates that pop up on the off days depending on scheduling that week. In general the larger the slate, the bigger the prize pools. Since a larger slate means more players are on the ice, that generally decreases specific player ownership. Though that increases your chance of your players having lower ownership if they go off, it also makes it more difficult to pick players that score more than the rest of the field since there’s a higher probability more goals are scored. (And that’s what makes it fun!)
It’s my personal preference to play single entry contests or low entry contests on larger slates than MME (mass multi-entry) GPP’s (guaranteed prize pool tournaments) because it levels the playing field while still ensuring a decent ROI (return on investment) if you place highly. That is, it’s a better metric for actual skill, which is how this whole gambling enterprise is being marketed. If the max entries for a tournament is set at 150, you can bet there are several sharks playing 150 different options to maximize getting a top return via optimizers and the like. If I were running a paid site with the information I share here for free, I’d likely throw up a branded logo on all my entries and try to cash in the top 50 each night for visibility too. Those entry fees partially pay for themselves through winnings and act as free advertising for your monthly/annual subscription services and ad revenue, etc. as well.
I’d say if you ask 80% of DFS players how/why they play, they’d answer that they just play for fun. That is, roughly ⅘ of the players are casual ones. That’s not to say ⅘ of the entries are from casual players, but a lot of people are making lineups based around a minimal knowledge of the league (hockey is least watched of the DFS sports), always betting on the home favorite or whichever game they’re watching that night, etc. (And you know what? If you stick to that consistently, it’s not even a terrible strategy. If your home team has a 50% chance of winning each night and you’re watching every game, to hell with advanced stats and just play your team based on the eye test.) It goes without saying though these players do not have the same chance of winning vs well-researched multi-entry accounts though.
If you’re having a rough go at the larger tournaments, try a smaller field or playing on the off nights. Some people perform better when there are less options available to them. Maybe you’re more of a cash game player. Discover what works for you.
GPPs vs Cash
GPP’s and cash are entirely different beasts. In GPP’s you’re looking for highest upside to get the most amount of points possible and win the tournament. In cash, you’re looking for the highest floor to ensure you’re above the fold. That’s a very different strategy. In general, play cash for security and GPP’s for the thrill.
Cash Strategies
I honestly never saw the appeal of cash games (multipliers, 50/50’s, etc.) until this season but I like that it offers a stable increase to my bankroll when the GPP’s are running cold. If you also want a peek into what the hivemind is thinking on any given slate, cash games are a better look into how the average player views DFS in general. Here be where you find your Kucherov’s and MacKinnon’s with 50% ownership every night, along with whatever hot hand value play happens to be in favor. This is hardly a hot take, but in my opinion you’re better off selecting three two man stacks on the powerplay with a “guaranteed” goaltender win and the best defensemen you can afford on the slate because it offers you some correlation without bottoming out if your line goes cold.
GPP Strategies
When I first started playing DFS the minimum contest payout was 2.5x your bet and there were a lot more random lineups in the field. That meant as long as you won 50% of your entries you were at least moderately profitable, and could generally afford to play more entries as a casual player as a result (and because the entry fees themselves were typically lower). Nowadays you’re looking at $4-4.44/entry for the Fanduel breakaway with a $8 return and a higher rake (corporate profit) with top-loaded prizes. On Draftkings things aren’t much different, with a $3 sniper getting you a minimum $5 return or an $8 two-man advantage getting you $16. Even within the basic instructions for beginners they recommend you try line stacking now. Simply put, it’s more difficult to win money than it used to be, which is another reason why I prefer the single and low entry tournaments nowadays.
Line Stacking
Since there are so few goals scored in a hockey game and most of those goals correlate with an assist, you typically want to pick players with good linemates and powerplay correlation. That’s DFS 101. Whether you can actually afford to stack two lines together is another matter entirely. I’ve built a basic tool that’s free to use if you want to check it out: Fanduel and Draftkings Line Stacker
Depending on whether you play on Fanduel or Draftkings will determine what kind of strategies are available to you, as there are tighter salary constraints on Draftkings but looser restrictions. On Fanduel, you’re capped at 4 players from each team. On Draftkings, you only need 3 different teams represented, so you can technically play the entire top six from one team instead. Despite that, you cannot do the 4-4-1 stack available on Fanduel, where you pick two lines with their corresponding defensemen and a goaltender. Instead, you have to opt for a 4-3-1 stack, either using the utility position for a punt play (typically not ideal) or alternating one of the defensemen from a different team (preferable).
I don’t like to break up line stacks because I’ve been playing long enough to see it come back to haunt me, but there’s always an argument for dropping an underperforming third wheel or due to salary constraints.
In General
This should all go without saying, but players that shoot more are likely to score goals, players with more minutes on the ice have more opportunities to get points, and players with good linemates are more likely to pick up assists. It’s also easier to score goals against weak opponents.
Defensemen
Though there are also points awarded for blocked shots, even the top shot blockers aren’t very DFS relevant on shot blocking alone unless they’re priced near floor and are against a high volume team. With so few 40+ point defensemen available any given season, and some of the more prolific point producers (Letang, Hedman) tending to be quite streaky, I generally only like to pay up for high salary defensemen that offer a high floor in all formats, while otherwise sticking to those on the top powerplay unit. Again, this is hardly a revelation, but you do often see lineups where people have two garbage defensemen to squeeze together two highly priced lines. Know that you’ll need at least another goal from those forwards to compensate for your back end unless you get a lucky bounce.
Goaltenders
I feel like a lot of DFS players, especially high volume players, tend to consider their goaltender an afterthought and despise the idea of building from the goaltender out. That’s a huge gamble in my opinion, considering your goaltender is often one of the most expensive players on your roster by default and has the ability to put up the most amount of points every night. This is the single hardest position to target because you not only need a win (while the winningest goalies are still hovering around 60% winrate), but that goaltender has to face a lot of shots while also allowing few goals against. For this reason I tend to isolate two or three goaltenders I’ll target every night based on expected goals against, expected shots against and the probability of a win, and then it’s boom or bust for me.
TL;DSummary
You want to target lines where at least two players are correlated on the powerplay on a team with high GF/G and/or PP%, against teams with low CF%, high SA/G, high GAA. and/or low PK%, ideally where your lines are home ice so they can determine which opposing lines they’ll target. Beyond that, you’ll want to look into whether those lines have been under or over-performing expectations or have any history together whatsoever. I place additional weight on narrative games (reaching a milestone, versus their former team, rivalries, etc.), as well as historical performance than most consider. You’ll also want a correlated defenseman for one or both lines, and a goaltender with a high expected SA/G and low GAA, that all fit within your salary constraints.
(It’s easier said than done, of course.)
Additional Resources
Fanduel and Draftkings Line Stacker: My own hobbled together linematching tool. I don't know of a similar tool available right now and I find it handier than an optimizer. Also: free.
ShrpSports: See how well teams have performed against each other historically.
Daily Faceoff: Your best source for lineups, injury news and starting goaltender information.
Daily Fantasy Nerd: I use this daily for an overview of who’s hot/cold in the last five games for shots on goal, ice time and points, though it’s worth doing a deeper dive to see whether those points came from a single outlier game.
Awesemo : as much as I’ve alluded to being generally bitter about DFS subscription services, and while their content is a bit too optimization and MME content based, they do have great analysis on linematching and generally better content than the big rivals like Rotogrinders, etc.
Corsica Hockey and Natural Stat Trick: though I detest Corsica’s player rankings (see their current ranking of leading defensemen Chabot, as an example), I use both of these sites for advanced stats and occasionally the latter for line-matching data and post-game analysis.
LeftWingLock’s Line Production Tool: Basically line matching for dummies. See which linemates have produced the most and let in the fewest over the last 3 or 10 games.
Linestar FD/DK App : Linestar comes the closest to developing a DFS tool that actually correlates with how I build my lineups. They offer everything from analysis on value plays, recent performance in varying metrics, historical data vs opponent, change in salary, salary disparity between platforms and much, much more.
eDraft’s Defense Consistency: A decent tool for finding consistent defensive production, among other things.
NHL.com Multipoint Stats: A quick look at whether there are multi-point performance outliers from overall DFS production.
And, of course, Fanduel and Draftkings where you’re going to be winning all this money from :)
Why Are You Doing This?
It hadn’t really occurred to ask myself this question, but writing it out when I have the time helps me filter through the noise a bit to determine my lineups. I also simply love hockey and there are few people that actually care about this sort of thing. (I mean, uh, access to information! Be the change you want to see in the world!) I don’t really know. I can’t imagine I’m giving up much of an edge by sharing this with you and I’m going to do it anyway, so if I can help you out, perhaps the better question is: why not do this?
submitted by breadispain to dfsports [link] [comments]

TIFU by deciding to consume edibles before a flight

Obligatory this happened about 1.5 years ago
My girlfriend & I took a trip for about three weeks in the USA back in January 2018, we had come to the end of our trip where we stopped in LA for 3 days to watch a NHL game then fly home. My girlfriend & I decided that we could not endure a 15-hour flight from LA to Melbourne, so as we did with a previous trip home from Amsterdam – we got some weed brownies.
The very 1st time we did this trick it worked like a charm, we ate, checked in, got through security, boarded, watched a movie and fell asleep.
We both went to the store where a lovely budtender explained to us the different types of cookies, strains, varieties, etc. she then kindly showed us what was on offer. After much debate we finally decided on the variety of cake we would like, to which the budtender responded “how strong would you like it?”, there was a 250mg, 500mg & 1000mg. I smoked a little through university, and every now and again & my girlfriend would smoke on the odd occasion. My girlfriend said the 1000mg would be a great idea to get to sleep quicker and knock us out, the budtender also agreed even though I mentioned multiple times that we don’t do this often; I insisted we took the safe bet and decided on the 250mg each.
Fast forward to the Uber on the way to the airport, we open our treats and take a few bites. Instantly, the tastes overwhelm my mouth, soft, sweet, and a bit weedy. We both feel a bit apprehensive as we hoped we had our timing right, last time it took about 1.5 hours to kick it so we expected the same. We arrive at LAX, grab our bags and got to the check-in desk, put through our bags and made our way to security. We walk to security laughing and giggling about how many burgers we could eat before leaving but then we arrived at the line… it was at this point where it all suddenly took a turn for the worst.
This enormous feeling of regret moves throughout my entire body, my fingers are tingling, my mind is racing, my heart is thumping a million miles an hour - I can literally feel the sweat dripping off my forehead. I turn to my girlfriend silently and watch her try to generate saliva with absolutely no luck.
In absolute disbelief, the brownies had not only kicked in way earlier than I thought but had taken the driver seat of my entire central nervous system.
I knew that we weren’t taking any weed through security but I couldn’t help shake the feeling that we were being watched, every movement, every thought was under surveillance by TSA. I explained to my girlfriend that we just need to make it past the checkpoint and we would be safe to which she did not respond. We patiently wait in line for what would have been 20 minutes but felt like close to a journey to Mars. I practice my breathing and constantly try remind myself that weed is just a plant, whilst my girlfriend, on the other hand, is on the verge of a breakdown – we carry our bags to scanners gripping on for dear life.
I was shitting myself, not only am I frightened by security for no tangible reason but I needed to figure out a way to walk and talk at the same time. I muster the courage and unpack the electronic devices from my bag and take off my shoes (which I found extremely odd), as well as assisting my now temporarily disabled girlfriend. We both walk through in silence, the security gives us a nod, a small win in what is the beginning of a living nightmare.
I collect my bag and slowly put my shoes back on, my girlfriend looks at me and asks where is her bag to which I can see it has been pulled aside - we both freak out once again. That feeling I mentioned earlier about regret quickly re-enters my body and I can hear my internal voice quietly say “you’ve really fucked up this time lol”.
Once again, we waited for what seemed like an eternity, both panicked and frightened. The TSA asks who owned the bag, we both silently approached, not saying a single word. The lady at the TSA lady looked at us in pure disappointment, explained to us that the bag was fine and we were free to go. Our collective heart race took a slight decline, from either adrenaline, anxiety, panic, paranoia, or, a mixture of all four.
At this point, we don’t even know what to do with ourselves, our appetite completely disappeared, and, we couldn’t enjoy one last drink in peace. It was pure survival game from here on out.
We had about another hour till we needed to board however we first needed to locate our gate. Attempting to control my legs let alone find my ticket, or, read a screen was beyond impossible. These feelings just kept coming back and forth, I would be fine for a minute and everything would somewhat settle down, but next thing I know the switch got flicked back on again. We managed to recuperate and tell ourselves that we will be fine, we show a bit of team work and manage to find our gate number.
Usually when I have smoked weed in the past it would reach the peak and come down after that.
Not with edibles though, these fuckers just took it to another level.
At our gate we sit down and catch our breath until the paranoia creeps right back in the door, “what if people know we are high”, “is my breathing too loud”, “are my eyes red”, “why do people love watching people get attacked by sharks on TV?”. We both look to each other and decide our next move, we spot in the corner of our eye a great piece of carpet floor, in the corner, hidden away in the darkness, we claim it as our home base until boarding starts. It was a sigh of relief, but also where it got really weird.
I put my headphones in and try catch up on the news from the past couple of weeks, whilst my girlfriend asks me to put on some whale noises for her on YouTube (weird flex but okay). Once again, it genuinely feels like eternity, I get up a couple of times to go throw up in the bathroom with no success and check the mirror to see if my face is actually melting. I lie back down throw a jumper over my forehead, switch on a time for the remaining 30 minutes and switch to the next article. It was revolving the military and the middle east - I catch my girlfriend also looking at the phone and I asked if she wanted to watch, she replied with “are you fucking serious watching that in an airport?”, I was shocked and could not under what she was on about, I look at her shaking my head and resume watching. My girlfriend asks to change the music on her phone because she is freaking, I change it to another music playlist and go back to my video. Move on to the next thread it is a about planes, fuel prices, engines etc. I get another tap on my shoulder and look up to see her saying “I don’t think you should be watching that in here”, I said “watching what?” (I don’t think either of us know how loudly we were speaking, but in reality, we would’ve been whispering, but it felt like yelling to me), she replies, “terrorism, are you plotting something?”.
I proceed to freak out once again, as I think she has blurted out that I’m planning some radical movement in LAX. Paranoia heightens again. I calmly explain to her that it’s the news but she continues to dismiss me and begins to panic, I realise time hasn’t moved a single bit and we still have 20 minutes to go. I lie back down, with both of us in complete distress.
It is time to board, finally, after what has been the most awful experience of my life, where my brain was the equivalent of a root vegetable, we had somehow made it. Glory, the final destination, where we can sit down & relax. The flight attendants knew, other passengers knew, hell I think the pilots even knew that we were high. As I smiled with my eyes half closed trying to work my way through the cabin.
We got to our seats and at this point my girlfriend was still convinced that I was a terrorist, what probably didn’t help is that as soon as we took off, I decided to watch a movie… American Sniper
I turn around again to see the look of horror and I take off my head phones, so my GF could speak to me; “I am frightened that you are watching that, why are you doing this?”, I continually said “what are you on about?”, after much back and forth, it subsided - she also did ask me “have we taken off yet?” half an hour into our flight, before she closed her eyes and fell asleep. The food cart came around, I ate and began heaving down packets of chips and water from the back area.
We wake up as we land… still stoned albeit less than when we left. We grab our bags and walk off, similar to the TSA staff, the airline staff look at us in pure disappointment. The high is a lot more manageable and we both aren’t rendered completely useless.
The entire experience was beyond terrifying, it was a genuine nightmare; if this was at 250mg I can’t imagine what would happen at 1000mg. 8.5/10 probably would do again.
TLDR: Ate edibles before going on a flight through LAX, way too strong and couldn't handle it, my gf thought I was plotting to destroy our flight.
submitted by camsirhc1 to tifu [link] [comments]

Current Content and User Engagement Woes

This is going to be a long read, but I hope people can relate to some of the frustrations and have additional suggestions to keep the conversation going. Trying not to focus on gameplay or tuners...a lot of varying opinions there.
Quick background...NHL is really the only game I play. Last year I also bought Madden on sale around Xmas to see what the hype was about and then again this year. I played some MUT before NHL was released and then switched all efforts over to HUT. I made this post last season about my eyes being opened to the incredible amount of content offered in MUT, which I'll allude to often below when looking for ways to improve the game. I know other ultimate team games (ie. Non-EA:The Show or EA:FIFA) have features I am not privy to and would love to hear about them.

The Attempted Fix NHL 18

I think most people on here are on the same page that NHL 18 did not go well from a market perspective. The most casual of players enjoyed it because they were able to pick up cards for very cheap...play a couple solo challenges and you could pick up Ice Stamkos and Kucherov. Many people, including myself, were left with very little to do as end-game teams were available very early on due to the number of players and card types hitting 99 early on in the year. What contributed to it?
Attempted Market Fix in 19:
Long story short, IMO, that is a huge list and EA went too far. In an attempt to stabilize the market, which it definitely has, the game has become boring with very little to do or things to cheer for. Let's go into some details below.
First off, credit where credit is due. Bravo on:

Events and Content Release to Date

Evolution Set - No complaints on the set construct besides it being one and done. Choice packs at different levels is a nice way to do it. The solo challenges around it were just brutal. Tedious star requirements to pull two random jersey cards? Boo. The "release of additional Evo cards after receiving feedback" via packs only over 24 hours is not a great solution. Evo Burns is already a ghost on the AH.
Halloween - The best set released yet. Solid Big Buff MSP card. The only odd part was the required specific gold rare or gold common player for the team builder set. Why randomly pick one player like that to allow people to login at 5:01 and price lock? At least make the team builder set "X amount of gold common or silver rare players"...not one specific gold common. That just gets price locked as well.
Digital 6 - This is where I start to question if person creating these sets ever takes a look at the current market. Again randomly requiring a gold rare card...although that was moot point for this set as everyone collecting the Rask, Kadri, etc. cards dumped as soon as the details were released and flooded the supply. Gold collectibles are already rare with people building alumni sets. It seems odd to have 5 required for what is more or less a rookie/intermediate level set with 86 cards. Ditto on the solo challenges...Superstar is absolutely infuriating to play against. No MSP card either? Hard pass.
Weekend Alumni Releases - Underwhelming may be the best summary here. Mostly low rated cards, an abundance of high goalies, and available only in packs.
$100/500k - Controversial, but this has been the only good pack release of the year. There was definitely some sticker shock at the $100 price tag. Look at the price fo these guys now...whether you bought the pack or not, it ended up releasing an almost perfect amount to the market. Selanne, Leetch, etc. are always available and have maintained the value, even increasing slightly. The more recent "available in any pack" Forsberg, Pronger, and Potvin release that everyone asked for? Be careful what you wish for...I bet people ripped hundreds of dollars worth of packs and have nothing to show for it. They are extremely rare to find on the AH and 99.9% of people will never have that elusive Forsberg on their team without a re-release. Bring these packs back.

Game Modes/Features/Sets

Event Objectives - We are about to hit the two month mark of NHL 19 next week. There has been exactly ONE set of event objectives for ONE collectible. ???
Draft Champs - Completely neglected game mode. A single set of trading in 5 loan players for an 82. The only time I have seen people in there was trying to get a sneak preview of new cards and then forfeiting the draft. Brutal. Mimic Madden and make it X amount to enter and actually have good pack/coin rewards.
Comp Seasons vs Hut Champs - Too similar using the same scoring system. Why not mimic the MUT Weekend League Rewards for Hut Champs? Just total win count will get you to different reward tier levels with a max of 25 games. Go down a few goals early? No stress, quit and start the next game.
Playoffs - RIP?
Gold/SilveBronze Collectible Use - It is very odd to me that there are only two sets to currently use gold collectibles in. The first being the alumni upgrades, which one would never do unless you are in the 1% building a 99 MSP (others would just buy the upgraded player). The second is the oddly designed Digital 6 set discussed early. I would venture to guess a majority of the people, including myself, just build the collectibles and auction right away. MUT has a number of year long and often updated sets, including one of the HUT fan favorites, to use your collectibles in: Flashback Sets.
MUT "Series" Releases - Large content drops to keep the game fresh...Example being Series 3 released Nov. 2. What did this include?
  • 100 New Solo Challenges with a 91 OVR reward.
  • Multiple set updates to keep them relevant to current cards levels. ie. 50 trophies for a 89-91 overall player.
  • One month objective list that rewards a Legend pack.
Solo Challenges - Where are they? Browsing the sub, there are a number of people who want to participate in HUT, but not play online. There is very little for them to do. Look at the available solos in MUT right now...that is 934 to be exact. And most are fun too...some full games, but most situational challenges...ie. "you are up by 4 with 30 seconds to do and Tom Brady on the 2 yard line...shut down the Pats to win this solo". I know situation challenges are not possible in 19 per flop, but it should be near the top of the list for NHL 20. In the meantime, I think I speak for all when I say these four solo challenge items are terrible:
  • Superstar Level - I am a D1 player with a pretty good record...I HATE playing the AI at this level...I can't imagine what newer players think. The tic-tac-toe passes they make are not possible using normal controller input.
  • Untracked Stats - Looking at you blocked shots and breakaway goals. Doing a challenge while blind is no fun.
  • Faceoff % - Can win 80% of face-offs against humans but under 50% on pro and up. Just not enjoyable.
  • PP Goals - Maybe this one is already gone? Have not played solos in a while. Ragging around trying to get the AI to take a penalty is just tedious.
Team of the Week - Branching off of the solo challenge section above...let's compare how HUT and MUT treat TOTW:
HUT
  • Cards are released and you have a small chance of pulling in packs.
MUT
  • Cards are release and you have a small chance of pulling packs.
  • Two solos are released where you obtain a random TOTW player and a TOTW collectible.
  • Obtain the other TOTW offensive or defensive players to complete the new TOTW Master set.
  • Hang on to the TOTW collectibles for a free TOTY set trade-in player.

Keeping the Game Linked to the NHL

MovembeEvo - Most of the people playing here are big hockey fans in real life as well. Take a look at the weekly sub posts for NHL 16/17/18 during Movember (and Evo) and then continuing throughout the rest of the NHL season. A ton of people discussing upcoming milestones, investment potential, who is playing with who and who is playing well (Guentzel on Crosby line...must buy guys). People were monitoring games each night and reporting back on potential POTG thresholds or injuries. It was really fun.
Look at the price of the Evo cards...they are so much higher than they should be considering the single synergy and max 2+ upgrade per month. What does that tell you? People want their Movember and Evo cards. Hitting refresh right at 5pm and seeing three of my starters get TOTW? Sweet!
MUT Predictor - Not sure if it has been in MUT yet this year, but last year there were weekly solos where you earned tokens to participate in an NFL pickem game that weekend. Based on how many you get right, you would earn coins/players/packs and the rewards increased throughout the year. How fun would it be to play some solos during the week to get tokens and then pick the following examples before a full Saturday slate of games:
  • Will Patrick Kane record two or more points?
  • Will the Sabres beat the Flames?
  • Will Holtby record 30 or more saves?
  • Will the Stars have over 10 penalty minutes?
  • etc.
"Temperature Cards" - AndrasteX Think MovembeEVO's are too OP? Create a card type that can go up AND down based on how said player is performing.

Final Thoughts

Amend the +2 Overall Per Month - _endlessmike had it written out somewhere but I can't find it. Some really good lower overall players will never be relative for a majority of the year with a +2 upgrade (ie. Pettersson). There are better ways to slow the average overall explosion like Ovi last year.
Bring Team Collections Back - Over the years, the "team collection" morphed from 1) collect all items of a team to receive reward packs 2) collect subset of team + collectibles to receive legend 3) alum card + collectibles for upgraded alum/legend. The "team collection" portion is completely gone and was a fun longer term goal reminiscent of collection physical hockey cards back in the day.
Diversify the Game Changers - Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe a majority of the game changers are YouTube and Twitch streamers. Understand that they are great from a marketing perspective; ie they get free points -> open packs on their videos -> people watch videos -> people buy packs. Win/win for both. However, sometimes I wonder if they are as passionate about the game as a bunch of the Reddit, Discord, etc. guys are. Sometimes have a major smh moment when they open packs on a stream and the don't know what the collectibles are for....eh. Don't get me wrong, a lot of those guys are great, it just seems to be a very limited perspective.
If you made it to the end, thanks for reading. Long story short, I love this game and love all of you guys. Definitely my favorite hobby and just want to Make HUT Great Again. Cheers.
submitted by poleman14 to NHLHUT [link] [comments]

Understanding the world of online betting can be a daunting task for the sports betting novice. You’re met with a wall of numbers, dots and dashes before you even get started. The key to enjoyable betting is in knowing how to read the odds. We’ll break it all down into manageable chunks, covering the different bets and odds, and how to read Any time you look at game lines for the four major American sports you’ll see a point spread, a moneyline and a total. All three of these betting options incorporate American odds (also called moneyline odds), so learning how moneylines work is a good starting point. Not only will any of these NHL betting sites be easy to use, but you will enjoy spending time on it. Customer Service. Last but not least, high-quality customer service is a must in the world of online gambling. These online NHL betting sites provide a variety of contact options and are available to help 24/7. How to Read Odds. If you bet on sporting events, you must be able to read odds and understand what they mean. Furthermore, you need to quickly calculate the potential winnings for different bets, especially if the odds are changing while the event unfolds. Odds tell you the likelihood that an event will occur (a team... NB: in this example, the line betting and total betting is cast at a decimal (e.g. 3.5) this means there is zero chance that the line can be split and that a refund is required. Parlay betting. Parlay betting is also popular in basketball where you bet on a combination of teams in order to get the biggest returns for your stake.

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