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I've a 100 Euro bet on with my friend that he won't complete this game in 3 days. >>>Day 3<<<

Death Count: 242
Iudex Gundyr - Defeated
Vordt of the Boreal Valley - Defeated
Curse-rotted Greatwood - Defeated
Crystal Sage - Defeated
Deacons of the Deep - Defeated
Abyss Watchers - Defeated
High Lord Wolnir - Defeated
Old Demon King - Defeated
Pontiff Sulyvahn - Defeated
Yhorm the Giant - Defeated
Aldrich, Devourer of Gods - Defeated
Dancer of the Boreal Valley - Defeated
Oceiros, the Consumed King - Defeated
Champion Gundyr - Defeated
Ancient Wyvern - Defeated
Dragonslayer Armour - Defeated
Lorian & Lothric
Soul of Cinder
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Welcome back, Unkindled Ones, for the grand finale. I will be updating the key highlights as we proceed throughout the game over these next few and final hours, as well as the death count. To make things easier to follow, I will have (updated) to the left of the most recent text below. The times I update may not be 100% accurate, but fairly close.
For anyone who doesn't know what this is all about, check out the link below.
https://www.reddit.com/darksouls3/comments/heepr2/ive_a_100_euro_bet_on_with_my_friend_that_he_wont/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
For anyone who missed the events of Day 1, check out the link below.
https://www.reddit.com/darksouls3/comments/hg43r5/ive_a_100_euro_bet_on_with_my_friend_that_he_wont/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
For anyone who missed the events of Day 2, check out the link below.
https://www.reddit.com/darksouls3/comments/hgqdbm/ive_a_100_bet_on_with_my_friend_that_he_wont/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
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11:00 - Once again, I must apologize for the two day break in between. Here in Ireland, 364 days of the year are cold and wet, even when it's dry, so I sure as hell wasn't missing out on an opportunity to make the most of that one day that contained a sweltering 8°C (46.4°F for our American friends) heat wave. The deadline will be @ 1:00am as we started an hour later than originally planned. Weapon update: Lothric Knight Sword & Shield. Let's get into this.
11:10 - She bangs, she bangs, oh baby. When she moves, she moves, I go crazy. 'Cause she looks like a Hungarian belly dancer but she slices you up like a chicken in a rotisserie. Like every Outrider Knight in history.
11:44 - She prances elegantly across the room with the natural grace of the Ballerina that she is, executing a faultless arabesque and flowing like water over a smooth river stone, leaving her onlooker mesmerized and in awe, wondering who this pulchritudinous Dancer is. Their eyes meet for the first time. His heart begins to beat faster and faster, reaching dangerously high levels, on the verge of exploding in his chest. He gasps, almost forgetting to breath. It feels like he's being consumed by the gaping mouth of a great ocean. She advances toward him, one foot in front of the other. Controlled movements, never withdrawing her eyes from his. She's a hair's breadth from him now. He's never witnessed such magnificence. His lips part, words ready to escape to ask this enchantress her name. She slowly lifts her elongated fingers to his mouth, as if ready to hush his eager lips. Then she stabs him in his face and he dies.
12:29 - It could be the rustiness after taking a two day break or it could just be the encounter itself. He's struggling with this one, a lot. Her movements are off-putting and he's finding it difficult to understand her attack patterns.
13:05 - We're at a standstill here folks. Although progress is being made, it's not being made quick enough. Every death is costly minutes lost and the clock is ticking. 15-0 Dancer.
13:58 - And that's all she wrote. This Dancer was clearly not made for the stage. She suspends her head in shame as she is jeered off the platform after failing to impress the judges after 20 attempts.
14:05 - He's swung a sharp left and has decided to make his way to the Consumed Kings Garden in hope of defeating two bosses consecutively in quick succession. Time is his greatest enemy right now. To stand a chance of making it through Lothric Castle and the Archives, he'll need to do this with haste.
14:39 - The Pus of Men are misunderstood lovable abominations that only desire love and affection. With their mahoosize claw like appendages reaching out for a friendly handshake, they find themselves being set ablaze yet again by another terror-stricken, mismatched armour wearing dingbat.
15:04- The lift shortcut has been activated. It's time to meet Ocerios and baby Ocelotte, wherever he is.
15:54 - "Ahh, you ignorant slaves. Finally taken notice, have you? Of the power of my beloved Ocelotte, child of The Joy and The Sorrow." There's more than meets the eye(or lack of them), with this scaleless, clammy, staff weilding naked Wyvern-man. After consuming copius amounts of cocaine in phase 2, which would explain his dillusions, he begins bouncing off the walls on all fours like the absolute mad man that he is. Unleashing a plethora of swipes, bites and tail whips, he's establishing just why he has King in his name. He's certainly no push over so far and it shows.
16:33- The Consumed King has been dethroned. The key to this encounter was using his shield to absorb the barrage of blows in phase two. He's ready to make his way to the Untended Graves to face Gundyr for round two. I have shown him the secret passage as he'd have no knowledge of how to get there otherwise. But first we're going to take a short break. Be back soon.
17:12 - After spending months training away in a Muay Thai camp in southern Thailand, the Tin-Man has returned with seething vengance on his mind. Displaying a whole new moveset of quick dodges, open handed bitch slaps and a roundhouse kick that would give Chuck Norris a run for his money, this herculean trash can is here to pick up todays garbage.
17:47 - When his eyes glow red, he means business. These newly learned attacks are proving to be more than a handful right now. He's barely been able to secure one successful hit during Gundyr's second phase onslaught. He's in trouble with this one. Will his first boss encounter with Gundyr also be his last?
18:50 - Round 13: With a quick left jab to the midsection, followed by a right uppercut to the big man's chin, Gundyr finds himself face down eating dirt. He'll have to hang up his gloves after this one.
18:55 - With four bosses remaining, he's decided to go on a Wyvern hunt in Archdragon peak. He wants to get this one out of the way so that he can soley focus on the remaining two areas. Seeing as he has absolutely no idea how to get here, I'll show him the way...of the Dragon.
19:16 - He traverses across the grey expanse of stoney peaks, breathing in lungfuls of crisp frigid air. Step by step, he meticulously picks out his footing placement amongst the coarse, uneven, rocky terrain. He sees a white marbled mausoleum in the distance, it's a welcomed sight indeed. The conception of a place to rest his beaten and broken body gives him purpose to push on. He forces his weary legs to take another step. Almost there. Suddenly his body is met with an icey chill as a great shadow looms above. A low hiss resonates, causing the ground around him to tremble. Enter: Ancient Wyvern.
19:40 - After quickly learning that his sword attacks only tickled the serpentines scaley hide, he navigated his way around the rafters and delivered a deadly plunging attack to the Wyvern's cranium, casuing instant death. Back to the Bonfire.
19:45 - My personal favourite area of the game that also happens to have my personal favourite boss encounter. Lothric Castle can be a fairly time consuming place for new players to navigate their way around, and time is something he is very short on right now. With little room for error and three difficult encounters remaining, this might come down to the wire.
20:30- Subsequent to being toasted like a marshmallow outside of the castle, he made his way to the right sided entrance where he fought his way through an ambush of Hollow Assasins and proceeded to free the corrupted parasitic Wyvern from eternal torment.
21:23 - His second meeting with the Boreal Outrider Knight went scantly better than the first. Much emphasis on the word scantly. He traded blows with charged up super Knights within the castle walls and found himself passage toward the Archives, only to be stopped in his tracks by a formidable foe.
21:35 - The sky shone bright with a brilliant ember red glow. The Pilgrim Butterflies glided amidst the clouds, as if swimming upstream like Salmon in the fall. The beauty of it all was short lived when pulsing waves began to emanate from their frail wings in the direction of a heaped metallic pile of dismantled armour below. One by one, the pieces began to build upon themselves, until there stood a ten foot hollow behemoth weilding a lightning infused Greataxe and a mammoth sized shield, almost as tall and wide as the hulking brute iself. It found itself at the mercy of its new masters. Obeying. Under submission. Ready to kill.
22:27 - 8 shield bashes to the face later, he got the upper hand and melted down that armour into a brand new teapot. With the clock against him, he's heading into the final area of the game.
22:39 - Thousands upon thousands of old paper creations, stacked upon one another. I doubt you could even imagine it. He stands in awe, marvelling at the vast repository of books surrounding him. So much wonder, and knowledge, and secrets... oh the secrets, hidden away between their covers, like two forbidden lovers. In the far off distance, he hears echoing, an old familiar cackling, resounding in his ears. It can't be. It can't... Two ice cold frostbolts to the side of his head quickly remind him that the Witch Bitch is still very much alive and kicking. Welcome to the Grand Archives, my man.
23:25 - After turning himself into a human candle, he proceeded to make his way through the Archives whilst being groped by Cursed Claws, pounced on by more Hollow Slaves, and impaled by lumbering Gargoyles. Harry, Ron and Hermione won't make his final hurdle towards the Twins an easy one.
23:47 - Incest is best. A motto held dearly by these two edgy teens. A brotherly love like no other, the Twin Princes. These guys gave me absolute hell on my first playthrough and I expect they will do the same here. While it is possible to take down two more bosses within this time 01:00am time frame, it's highly unlikely.
00:00 - One hour remaining.
00:10 - 7 deaths in quick succession has given him insight as to what to expect from this encounter. The unpredictability of Lorians instant teleportation and double horizontal slashes is proving difficult to read, with a follow up combo catching him off guard every so often, resulting in a quick death.
00:30 - "This spot marks our grave. You may rest here, too, if you like." He may have no choice but to take Lothric up on his kind invitation. 30 minutes to go with phase 2 only being reached once. He's accepted defeat at this point but is still giving his all for the remaining time left.
(Updated) 1:00 -And that brings us to the end of our journey, Unkindled ones. Sadly, the Princes could not be taken down but I'm sure with a few more attempts, that'll change. Although he's failed to meet the requirements for this bet, he can hold his head up high because that was a damn good valiant effort. He's experienced his first taste of Dark Souls and he isn't leaving dissapointed.
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To those who are wondering if he actually enjoyed playing the game or was doing it for the money? The cash was a big incentive in the beginning, there's no question about that, but he thoroughly enjoyed it from start to finish. He does plan on completing the rest of it within the next day or so, as well as attempting the Nameless King. He will then do a second playthrough, playing at his own pace. He may have lost the bet but the world of Dark Souls has won him over. As for the 100 Euro, well, I didn't accept it and I never planned on doing so, and I know he would have done the same thing. A pint will suffice when we're out some night. I just wanted to introduce my friend to this phenomenonal game and for him to experience how amazing it is, and I've done that. That's enough for me.
To you guys and girls, thank you for joining us on this journey these last few days. I hope that you enjoyed reading my commentary as much as I did writing it. It's been a blast. Being new to the Dark Souls community myself and Reddit in general, I've gotta say that I'm loving the highly entertaining posts and the community itself. I'm not sure if I'll do something to this extent again, as it's left me mentally broken, but I will stay active. So keep it up everyone, and most importantly, stay safe.
submitted by Seefy8 to darksouls3 [link] [comments]

I've a 100 Euro bet on with my friend that he won't complete this game is 3 days. >>>DAY 1<<<

Death Count: 73
Iudex Gundyr - Defeated
Vordt of the Boreal Valley - Defeated
Curse-rotted Greatwood - Defeated
Crystal Sage - Defeated
Deacons of the Deep - Defeated
Abyss Watchers - Defeated
High Lord Wolnir
Old Demon King
Pontiff Sulyvahn
Yhorm the Giant
Aldrich, Devourer of Gods
Dancer of the Boreal Valley
Dragonslayer Armour
Oceiros, the Consumed King
Champion Gundyr
Lorian & Lothric
Ancient Wyvern
Soul of Cinder
For anyone who was following my previous post on Wednesday, I will be updating the key highlights every few hours as we proceed throughout the game over the next 3 days, as well as the death count. To make things easier to follow, I will have (updated) to the top left of the most recent text below. The highlight times I update may not be 100% accurate.
For anyone who doesn't know what this is all about, check out the link below. https://www.reddit.com/darksouls3/comments/heepr2/ive_a_100_euro_bet_on_with_my_friend_that_he_wont/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Day 2: https://www.reddit.com/darksouls3/comments/hgqdbm/ive_a_100_bet_on_with_my_friend_that_he_wont/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Day 3: https://www.reddit.com/darksouls3/comments/hikegq/ive_a_100_euro_bet_on_with_my_friend_that_he_wont/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
GMT+1 Standard Irish Timezone for people wondering.
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9:55 - We begin. Character creation finished. He's playing it safe and has gone for a Warrior class and has chosen a Life Ring as his burial gift. He tells me he will pump most of his points into leveling vigor, endurance and strength for this play through.
10:10 - He's hit his first speed bump and died twice to the Crystal Lizard before killing it. On route to Gundyr.
10:40 - Fourth times the charm. After dying to Gundyr's snako form 3 times, he made use of his Firebombs and is now on the way to meet the Fire Keeper for the first time.
11:15 - If there's anyone who knows how to get under a new player's skin, it's crazy naked katana man. I can already see the frustration starting to sink in. I think he's beginning to see the monumental challenge that lies ahead.
12:01 - High Wall of Lothric is currently handing out free ass whoopings and my friend is the lucky winner. Although he has died quite a few times, I'm starting to see improvement. He's beginning to use his shield properly and the timing of his attacks and dodges are getting a lot better. He realizes his playstyle so far has been too eager and hasty, so he's playing with more caution.
12:43 - Vordt is down. After being surprised by Vordt's quick change of pace in phase two, he came back for the second attempt more prepared and downed him with ease.
13:35 - "Who the fuck is throwing these spears down here". I intervened after watching him wander around like a lost sheep for the best part of an hour. It became slightly painful to watch. I've given him my first and last tip on how to operate the lift to the giant. Weapon update:Broadsword and kite shield.
14:15 - Hacked and slashed and cut down to size to be used as firewood. Cursed-rotted Greatwood posed little threat and was taken down on the first try.
14:38 - The Boreal Outrider Knight is always there to keep players smugness in check after becoming too cocky from one shotting the previous boss.
15:17 - Hears thumping sounds in the distance. Getting closer, closer, closer. Thud thud thud thud THUD! I hope you enjoy seafood.
15:36 - He's struggling with this area a lot. Lycanthropes, Giant Crabs, the Black Knight, the two npc's outside of Farron Keep. It's been quite a messy affair so far.
16:15 - It's an encounter you breeze through or struggle with. With 7 deaths and counting at the hands of Crystal Sage, right now he's the latter.
16:40 - The Wicked Witch of the West has had a bucket of water thrown in her face and Dorothy breathes a sigh of relief. Even though he's hit a road block in the last couple of hours, he's enjoying the game immensely. That adrenaline rush and exhilarating feeling after defeating a boss you've been struggling with is unlike any other, and he's just had his first taste of that.
16:58 - A lung full of fresh air and some contemplation is in order after these last few hours. We'll be back shortly, ladies and gentlemen.
17:32 - And we're back. Weapon update: Lothric Knight Sword and Grass Crest Shield. He's chosen to take the path to the Cathedral rather than tackle the swamp first. Despair awaits.
18:00 - Whilst maggots were feasting upon his skin and his torch was tucked comfortably away in his inventory, he couldn't understand why his health was depleting for no reason. A good friend would have probably explained to him why. But I just sat there. Smiling.
19:05 - It's like he's reliving my nightmare all over again. I remember my first time traversing through this area. It wasn't pleasant. Losing my balance on the rooftops, being sliced and diced by Grave Wardens, receiving an uppercut from a Giant as my first friendly welcome to the Cathedral, having Hollow Slaves fall upon my head, sluggishly dragging my feet and rolling, covering myself head to toe in Giant's excrement. I don't envy anyone who experiences this for the first time.
19:40 - "Shame on you, you greedy guts. Thought you could outwit an onion?" Thankfully, after poking away at the Giant's chained ankles for the best part of 10 minutes, there wasn't anything too dangerous lurking below as the bridge began to lower.
19:55 - Here in Ireland we're a bit funny about priests. So to be trapped in a room with several of them at once... It's a bit unnerving to say the least. He'll want this encounter to be over and done with as soon as possible.
20:03 - Countless Deacons lay scattered around him, wide eyed and still. This one was over as quickly as it began.
20:07 - Poison, poison and more poison. What a wonderful time we're going to have. cues Swamp Thing music
20:45 - Trudging through the endless wetlands, growing confused and disoriented whilst searching for the first of 3 ritual fires to burn. We've all been there.
21:32 - As he ascended his way to the top of Mr.Wolf's not so huffed and puffed and blown down house, he did not expect to get clobbered by a Stray Demon's over-sized club. With his attacks being as slow as the grotesque monstrosity himself, he was dispatched of quite easily. Now with the lookout being free from danger, he can scan his surroundings for the one remaining ritual fire.
22:03 - After being very vocal about how much he detests this area, the three fires are burning. And that only means one thing.
22:39 - clang clang clang The sound of steel on steel indicates there's nothing good that awaits him behind the double wooden doors. He pushes it open only to be greeted by pointy hatted men stabbing each other in the abdomen. This one is going to be rough.
23:30 - The Abyss Watchers have proven to be his biggest obstacle yet. With over 13 hours of gaming done today, bloodshot eyes are begging for rest and a lapse in concentration levels has resulted in inevitable death. He's struggled to cope with the quickness of the Watchers sword movements and double teaming efforts, but has managed to transition into phase 2 a few times.
(Updated) 00:03 - And there it is. After 90 grueling minutes and 15 attempts later, determination and presistance pays off and awards him with his first cinders of a Lord.
Someone is in need of a well needed rest so he can wake up and experience the anguish all over again tomorrow. Thank you to everyone who has joined in today. We'll be back again tomorrow @ 11am GMT+1. Look out for the same title as above ending with Day 2.
Goodnight, Unkindled ones.
submitted by Seefy8 to darksouls3 [link] [comments]

Online gambling legislation and regulation. Starting your own gambling product.

Online gambling legislation and regulation. Starting your own gambling product.

Mobile gambling
If you plan to develop an app with the ability to deposit and withdraw real money, then such a product automatically falls into the category of gambling and you will need to license your business for successful operation.
Mobile and Web Based Apps
So let’s talk about the different kinds of online gambling apps available on web and mobile. We’ll be covering both free-play gaming apps and real money casino app games you can find for iOS, Android devices and web browsers.
Mobile gambling is more common for poker, casino, bingo, and skill games. They have advantages in terms of a low barrier to enter the market, instant liquidity, product knowledge, and marketing expertise, minimal infrastructure costs, and the ability to bring a brand to the market quickly. Consequently, this form of gambling does not sit neatly with jurisdictional boundaries. Multiple gambling opportunities are available, including betting on various events and markets, in a relatively simple format. Gambling products can also be integrated into betting on television shows or virtual racing and sports games as well as offering lotteries, bingo, poker and casino games.
Most Popular Gambling Apps
Sports betting, casino, poker and lotteries are the most popular forms of online gambling. However, other forms are available too. These include the following: Bingo, slot machines, different card games, roulette and other game of chance. One of the best things about online gambling and betting apps is the number of choices you have.

Sports Betting

Betting means making or accepting a bet on the outcome of a race, competition, or other event or process, the likelihood of anything occurring or not occurring, or whether anything is or is not true. Today most sports betting is done via mobile-friendly sites and apps.
Today most sports betting is done via mobile-friendly sites and apps.
The introduction of live betting for sports like soccer and tennis means that bettors who are sitting inside stadiums watching games can now pick up their mobile devices and find real-time betting value with the best sports gambling apps. This has really unlocked a door to the future of sports gambling and the popularity of online gambling apps.

Poker

Many sites offer free poker, where no real money is wagered, although in some cases players can accumulate credits that can be exchanged for prizes. This is the case why people are going to play for real money. There is an ongoing debate over whether poker should be classified as a game of chance or skill. The parameters of legal poker playing are still unclear and differ between jurisdictions. Since you are not gambling with money, I’m pretty sure under the law it’s just a video game for now.

Blackjack

Blackjack is the game of choice to many high-rollers and do you know why? Because blackjack is a challenging, logic and skill-based game where your thinking, strategy, and calculations determine the outcome of the game.

Bingo

Bingo is one of the most popular and socially accepted games in the world. Bingo is a traditional form of gambling that has seen considerable innovation in recent years. It is also the only form of gambling recognized in the Gambling Act that does not have a specific statutory definition, the Act providing simply that “bingo” means “any version of that game, irrespective of by what name it is described”. Bingo must be played as an equal chance game. For game to be classed as “bingo” it must meet the Act’s definition of “equal chance gaming” (as opposed to casino gaming). Thus, it: must not involve playing or staking against a bank, and must be a game in which the chances are equally favorable to all participants in the sense that each ticket or chance has the same probability of success as any other.
Licensed bingo is a well-regulated and socially responsible form of gambling that takes place in a safe environment. Many sites offer multiple forms of bingo with different features, types of games, and costs of play. These sites often cater specifically for women and some research suggests that they may appeal to markets who would not typically engage in traditional forms of gambling.

Slots

Slot machine is one of the most beloved game among the gambling community and it has been a part of the industry for a long time. They provide fun and entertainment and their simplicity allows gamers to start playing at once. This can play out in different ways depending on the machine you’re playing. For instance, there’s Pick a Fortune, a five-reel, 20 line game that puts players right in the studio of a television game show, including the potential to play a Deal or No Deal-style bonus round. A super trend over the past few years is mobile-friendly slot games. These apps and websites were developed to enable players to enjoy their favorite games on their smartphones at any time. Another dominant slot trend is licensed branded slots that are based on popular movies, television, and musicians.
Virtual Money vs Real Money
Let’s find out the difference between social gambling and real money gambling, as well as the differences between gambling through apps and gambling through a web browser. It can be quite confusing trawling through all the casinos, slots, and lotteries available, both through your mobile web browser as well as through mobile app stores, in the form of downloadable apps.

Virtual money

The main difference between virtual money and real money gambling is that the in-game virtual currency in social games and gambling-type games is used only like credits that are not paid out as winnings or anything given to player in cash, making these games exempt from gambling regulations.
Virtual money is loaded on user game accounts via in-app purchases in mobile applications or the game balance funding from a card via web based applications.

Real money gambling

Real money gambling via your mobile device is only allowed in countries where laws have been passed that allow for this type of gambling online, or there are no laws in place that prevent it. The payment systems are the legal way of services payment in the gambling app, performing as the intermediary between the gambling facility and the client. With their help, users replenish deposits and withdraw funds to personal accounts in financial institutions. If the application uses the payment system of a well-known brand, that gives players additional confidence in the resource. Nowadays, there is a wide range of payment systems, some of which operate all over the world, other systems are oriented towards the citizens of one or several countries. A number of services accept money of different world currencies, while others allow currency transactions of one state only.
What is an Online Gambling Licensing
The internet has a global audience, there’s no single piece of legislation that covers the legality of online gambling for the entire world. Mobile gambling doesn’t typically accept customers from every single country in the world. It often focuses on certain specific regions.
Instead, most countries have their own local laws that deal with the relevant legal and regulatory issues.
Ultimately, questions of legality all go back to the location of the casino or where the website operates out of. In closed regulatory systems, such as Italy, France, and the Netherlands, licenses, and advertising rights are limited to domestic providers, which must be located within their country’s geographical boundaries and these are only permitted to offer some types of products. Some jurisdictions, for example, Norway, Sweden, and Canada legalize and regulate online gambling, but this is limited to a single site that is owned by the government. Under such an approach, the government becomes the operator and regulator and all revenues are returned to the government.
Remote gambling is generally permitted. That means that an operator that is licensed may provide gambling services to citizens in the country via all forms of remote communication (and using equipment that may be located in the country or abroad). Equally, a remote operator may be licensed to offer gambling services to citizens in any jurisdiction in the world using equipment located in the country. The law provides that, for each type of gambling (betting, gaming, and participating in a lottery), there will be two forms of license available: remote and non-remote forms (land-based). If you provide facilities for remote gambling, online or through other means, and advertise to consumers you will need a license from the licensing jurisdictions or local licensing authorities. Before an online gambling site signs up its first customer, before it accepts its first bet before the first card is dealt, it must be licensed by a recognized governmental entity.
Certain regions in the world have specific legislation in place that allows them to license and regulate companies that operate online gambling sites or provide industry services (such as the supply of gaming software). These regions are referred to as online gambling jurisdictions or licensing jurisdictions.
Depending on what type of entertainment you are going to implement in your internet establishment, you will have to apply for the corresponding permissions. Online gambling laws in Europe vary from one country to the next. The industry is well regulated in some countries and less so in others. There are several online gambling jurisdictions located in Europe. Some of these are members of the European Union (EU), and thus subject to the various rules and regulations of that body, while others are independent. Each of these jurisdictions has an authority that’s responsible for approving gambling sites for licenses that enable them to offer their services legally. They also regulate their licensees.
Countries that Provide Gambling Licensing
Today there are lots of licensing jurisdictions located all over the world and offering different terms for their customers. Depending on the country, licenses can be local, international (distributed in several countries), have a different set of documents for registration, costs of registration and further support, various operating conditions and other special details.

Which gambling license is both internationally recognized?

The government of Ireland offers casino operators, software, and service providers in the gambling industry, with a gambling license that allows gambling operators to conduct business related to casino, lotto, and other gaming-related activities. Ireland Gambling License is one of the most popular license for online casinos worldwide. Ireland has long been recognized as one of the preferred locations for Online Gambling operators to base their operations. This success has been due to a combination of factors, such as a progressive legislative system, political stability, first-rate telecommunications facilities, and a well established financial services industry. A wide range of gambling sites operates out of Ireland including sports betting, casino sites, poker, bingo, and more.
In stark contrast, the UK is the largest regulated market for online gambling in the world, and corporations are already comfortable exploiting the intersections of gambling and gaming, betting in-play, social gaming, Bitcoin, financial trading and spread betting, betting exchanges, e-sports and, most profitably, mobile gambling. 40% and 60% of online gambling in the UK took place in Gibraltar.

International licensing

Europe is home to the following online gambling jurisdictions: Alderney, Gibraltar, Isle of Man, Malta. Malta is currently the country that is most accommodating to gambling companies, and the license offers whitelisted online gambling in sports and casino games in many European territories. But takes an extreme amount of time in paperwork and background checks. Also, you pay 5% of all your gross profit to the EU.
Among countries offering gambling licensing services, the attention should be paid to Curaçao jurisdiction, which is considered to be one of the most promising for the online gaming business.
Curaçao Internet Gaming Association (also known as Curaçao eGaming) is both a regulator and a licensor, and its licensing works worldwide except Curaçao itself, USA, France and Netherlands. Using Curacao as an example, let us examine in detail the process of obtaining a license, the necessary documents and expenses.
How to get a License on Curaçao
  • Documents necessary for company registration:
  • criminal record;
  • passport scans;
  • bank account confirmation;
  • documents proving payments for utility services.
After the company is registered, an operator can apply for the license providing the following documents:
  • a document certifying the right of domain possession;
  • description of games planned to be used in the project;
  • a list indicating countries of potential operation;
  • illustration of server locations to be used in the project;
  • a copy of the agreement with a software provider.
Gambling license cost:
  • Bank account opening $1000
  • Company registration $3600
  • Company management per year $3600
  • Application processing fee $1000
  • License fee per year $4800
  • Equipment/software fee starting from $1500
  • Server maintenance per year $6000
Apart from that pay for technical support and maintenance every year. The entire license issuing process takes between 2-4 weeks. Curacao Internet Gaming Association (CIGA) also has the power to review a license and, if it finds that an operator has breached a license condition, has the power to impose a range of sanctions including revocation of the license.
Apple and Google Gambling Rules
You’ll be surprised at the limited number of real money gambling app options available on the AppStore and Google Play Store. Most real money casino gaming is done through gambler’s mobile web browsers and not through mobile gambling apps that you’ll find for iPhone and Android phones. Apple allows online gambling applications in a few forms, and not just in places where it is explicitly permitted. They do not allow any payments through the applications – those have to be done on the websites. Apple has far stricter developer guidelines for iOS apps than Google does for Android apps, so it’s fine to assume that whatever you choose to download from iTunes is usually safe, secure, and meets a certain standard.
Any real money casino in the iTunes app is required to have proper licensing and permissions before Apple will approve the app for use or downloads. While Google Play is technically regulated, it is much more loose in what can be hosted.

Apple Store

Gambling, gaming, and lotteries can be tricky to manage and tend to be one of the most-regulated offerings on the App Store. Apple has rules for apps that support real money wagering, including sports betting and poker. Those apps and lotteries must have necessary licensing and permissions in the locations where the App is used, must be geo-restricted to those locations, and must be free on the App Store, and Apple rate even simulated gambling apps as appropriate only for users 17-years-old and up.

Play Store

Google keeps the reigns tight. To be able to successfully upload apps to the Google Play store, developers need to have a valid license for the specific countries they are targeting and comply with their regulations. The app must be free to download and must prevent under-age users from gambling in the app. As a final precaution, all gambling apps are required to display prominent information regarding responsible gambling practices. This brings its policy in line with the Apple App Store.
Countries where gambling is illegal
It is also important to remember that while gambling is growing rapidly in many places, in others it is totally or partially prohibited. As well as in the majority of the US, sports betting is illegal in India, Pakistan, and China, three of the largest gambling markets in the world. Most countries have rules against gambling. Almost all Islamic countries prohibit gambling of every kind, but many turn a blind eye to online gambling or simply do not have regulations in place for this grey area.
In the United Arab Emirates, however, any kind of gambling is prosecuted. National lotteries are the only legal forms of wagering on the Asian country’s mainland. Cambodia, North Korea strictly forbids online and offline gambling amongst its own citizens but allows tourists to participate in these activities.
Qatar is the strictest country of all when it comes to gambling laws. All forms of gambling activities are considered illegal, and even sports betting is not permissible.
Starting your own gambling product
Numerous online casino platforms in the market offer fantastic casino games like bingo, poker, roulette, and many more.
If you have an idea, but don’t know where to start, we advise you begin with a Minimal Viable Product (MVP) to pilot your proof of concept for investors. MVP spotlights your core features and lets your investors know there are bigger and better things to come.
For MVP you do not need a large team, just a few people are enough to create a fully functioning prototype. In the case of successful numbers of your prototype, the further development of a full-fledged product will require more team, resources and time, however you will be sure that your development and your costs will pay off.
submitted by Fgfactory_ua to gamedev [link] [comments]

Would you like to know how my categorized list of erotic books turned out?

I have tried my best to go through as many comments as possible and categorized the books into 4 categories.
I added title, author and a short plot summary to each book so it is easier to navigate. Hope you like the list and feel free to add a comment if you feel a crucial book is missing and I will add it as soon as possible.
BDSM🏏- which is a more forced love/sex category
Fantasy🏹- which range from alien abduction, werewolves, witches to cyborgs.
Romance🍷- romantic flirtatious relationships
Lesbian🌸- for the girls who prefer girl on girl action.
I also got a tip for the website literotica.com where amateur authors write stories.
And I got a tip about an app with amateur authors “inkitt”
BDSM/ Forced/ Kidnap 🏏
Tears of Tess by Pepper Winters Girl is kidnapped and sold as a sex-slave to a rich powerful man with a desire for power and control.
Unmasqued by Colette Gale Colette Gale’s Unmasqued is a retelling of the story of The Phantom of the Opera which adds erotic sexual scenes, a good dose of BDSM, and a whole new ending.
The claiming of sleeping beauty by A.N Roquelaure Here the Prince awakens Beauty, not with a kiss, but with sexual initiation. His reward for ending the hundred years of enchantment is Beauty's complete and total enslavement to him
Slave to sensation by Nalini Singh In a world that denies emotions, where the ruling Psy punish any sign of desire, Sascha Duncan must conceal the feelings that brand her as flawed. To reveal them would be to sentence herself to the horror of “rehabilitation”
Story of O by Anne Desclos a young and beautiful Parisian fashion photographer, O, who wants nothing more than to be a slave to her lover, René. The test is severe—sexual in method, psychological in substance…
Kushiel’s Dart by Jaqueline Carey Sold into indentured servitude as a child, her bond is purchased by Anafiel Delaunay, a nobleman with very a special mission...
Keep me by Anna Zaires Abducted at eighteen. Held captive for 15 months. It reads like one of those headlines. And yes, I did it. I stole her. Nora, with her long dark hair and silky skin. She’s my weakness, my obsession.
To command and collar by Cherise Sinclaire Determined to find the human traffickers preying on Shadowlands’ submissives, Master Raoul gets himself invited to a small slave auction.
Captive in the dark by C. J Roberts Eighteen-year-old Olivia Ruiz has just woken up in a strange place. Blindfolded and bound, there is only a calm male voice to welcome her. His name is Caleb, though he demands to be called Master.
In too deep by Brenda Mason With an alcoholic and incompetent mother, Janet, Nora was tasked with raising Emerson; and had never known any support from anyone else. Janet refuses to believe the desperate plea of her daughter's regarding her new husband. She blames Nora when the accusations come to light.
Innocence by Lee Savino I’m king of the criminal underworld. I always get what I want. And she’s my obsession. Cora is new to the city of sin. Her innocent blue eyes beg for me to claim her. I’m ruthless. A beast.
Club shadow lands by Cherise Sinclair Her car breaks down and she seeks shelter in a house who is a BDSM club. Master Z hasn't been so attracted to a woman in years. But the little sub who has wandered into his club intrigues him. She's intelligent. Reserved. Conservative. After he discovers her interest in BDSM, he can't resist tying her up and unleashing the passion she hides within.
Warlord by Delta James He is a warlord, never defeated in battle, and he has come to take what he wants. He means to conquer not just Rowan's lands, but her beautiful virgin body as well, and her efforts to defy him merely result in her being mounted and claimed with her well-spanked bare bottom still burning.
Twist me by Anna Zaires He is a dominant sadist. My captor is an enigma. I don’t know who he is or why he took me. There is a darkness inside him – a darkness that scares me even as it draws me in.
Caged by Clarissa Wild Locked away, I've spent years waiting for my mate. I'm pent up with need. Brimming with desire. All I want is her... That beautiful girl from the picture on my prison wall. Now she's finally here, sharing a cell.
In flight by R.K. Lilley If only it were just his looks that she found so irresistible about the intimidating man, Bianca could have ignored his attentions. But what tempts her like never before is the dominant pull he seems to have over her from the moment they meet, and the promise of pleasure, and pain, that she reads in his eyes.
Blackmailed by the beast by Georgina Carre it appears I have somehow wandered into the enchanted mansion of a beast. He is cold and harsh and cannot be transformed with a gentle kiss, but strangely, I don't want to transform him.
Fantasy 🏹🏹🏹🏹🏹🏹🏹🏹🏹
The witching hour by Anne Rice On the veranda of a great New Orleans house, now faded, a mute and fragile woman sits rocking... and The Witching Hour begins. Fiercly drawn to each other, fall in love and—in passionate alliance—set out to solve the mystery of her past and his unwelcome gift.
Magic bites by Ilona Andrews The world has suffered a magic apocalypse. We pushed the technological progress too far, and now magic returned with a vengeance. It comes in waves, without warning, and vanishes as suddenly as it appears. When magic is up, planes drop out of the sky, cars stall, electricity dies. When magic is down, guns work and spells fail.
Guilty pleasures by Anita Blake when the city’s most powerful vampire asks her to solve a series of vicious slayings, Anita must confront her greatest fear—her undeniable attraction to master vampire Jean-Claude, one of the creatures she is sworn to destroy...
A hunger like no other by Kresley Cole Sheltered Emmaline finally sets out to uncover the truth about her deceased parents—until a powerful Lykae claims her as his mate and forces her back to his ancestral Scottish castle.
The demons possession by Kirsten Fay As captain of the merchant ship Marada, Sebastian has only one goal: keep his family and his crew safe. But when a bewitching young woman mysteriously appears on his ship, he finds it impossible to focus on the job...and to keep his hands off her.
Full moon rising by Riley Jenson A rare hybrid of vampire and werewolf, Riley Jenson. Her brother goes missing and she have to find him. More werewolf than vampire, Riley is vulnerable to the moon heat, the weeklong period before the full moon, when her need to mate becomes all-consuming...
Close Liaisons by Anna Zaires In the near future, the Krinar rule the Earth. An advanced race from another galaxy. Having caught Korum’s eye, she must now contend with a powerful, dangerously seductive Krinar who wants to possess her and will stop at nothing to make her his own.
Slave to sensation by Nalini Singh Paranormal romance and urban fantasy. In a world that denies emotions, where the ruling Psy punish any sign of desire, Sascha Duncan must conceal the feelings that brand her as flawed. To reveal them would be to sentence herself to the horror of “rehabilitation”
The tricksters lover by Samantha MacLeod. About the norse god Loke becoming her lover. Got a warning about the content of this book so maybe not for the faint hearted.
Dark song by Christine Feehan. In a world where Vampires claim a soulmate. Romance and sort of kidnapping/force. It is a series.
Black dagger brotherhoos by J.R Wood vampire warriors who live together and defend their race against de-souled humans called lessers.
Dark lover by J.R Ward The only purebred vampire left on the planet and the leader of the Black Dagger Brotherhood. when his most trusted fighter is killed—orphaning a half-breed daughter unaware of her heritage or her fate—Wrath must put down his dagger and usher the beautiful female into another world.
The mark of the vampire queen by Joey Hill The vampire world believes human servants are inferior, a vital source for their varying appetites. Jacob knows a human servant is far more than that. His Mistress needs a warrior, a friend and a lover.
Captive surrender by Linda Mooney Neither she nor the Ellinod had any idea how twisted their captors were, but they soon discovered that she and the beast were at the mercy of someone who expected them to "entertain" his "customers", and entertain them well regardless of the consequences. (Captured by aliens)
Darkness dawns by Dianne Duvall In this dazzling, sensual novel, Dianne Duvall beckons readers into a world of vampires, immortals, and humans with extraordinary gifts…where passion can last forever, if you’re willing to pay the price…
Sex and the goddess by Karin E. Weiss Sex and the Goddess: An Intimate Exploration of Woman’s Erotic Spirit and Sacred Sexual Power in Myth, Legend, Life, and History (Volume One)
The darkest king by Gena Showvalter Cursed by a vengeful witch, William of the Dark will die if he ever falls in love. The darkly seductive William abducts her, holding her captive in Hell. The closer they get, the more she hungers for his touch…and the stronger a mystical desire to kill him becomes…
Half way to the grave by Jeanine Frost Half-vampire Catherine Crawfield is going after the undead with a vengeance, hoping that one of these deadbeats is her father – the one responsible for ruining her mother’s life. Then she’s captured by Bones, a vampire bounty hunter, and is forced into an unlikely partnership.
House of dark delights by Louisa Burton French countryside castle. You’ll meet a tall, seductive elf who can morph from male to female, a bewitching goddess from ancient Babylonia, a playfully lusty satyr, a djinni obligated to satisfy the unspoken appetites of any human he touches, and a vampire as sexually rapacious as he is bloodthirsty.
Lusty argonian maid Lifts-Her-Tail: Certainly not, kind sir! I am here but to clean your chambers. Crantius Colto: Is that all you have come here for, little one? My chambers?
Kushiel’s dart by Jaqueline Carey Phèdre nó Delaunay is a young woman who was born with a scarlet mote in her left eye. Sold into indentured servitude as a child, her bond is purchased by Anafiel Delaunay, a nobleman with very a special mission...
Romance 🍷🍷🍷
Mystery man by Kirsten Ashley. Alpha male style. Man comes to her bed every night in darkness. She knows nothing about him exept that she thiks he is the one.
Fourth a lie by Pepper Winters Eleanor Grace did the unbelievable. She fell for a man who trades in women, dabbles in myth, and has the morals of a cold-hearted beast.
Wallbanger by Alice Clayton The first night after Caroline moves into her fantastic new San Francisco apartment, she realizes she's gaining an intimate knowledge of her new neighbor's nocturnal adventures. Thanks to paper-thin walls and the guy's athletic prowess, she can hear not just his bed banging against the wall but the ecstatic response
Belinda blinked by Rocky Flintstone A modern story of sex, erotica and passion. How the sexiest sales girl in business earns her huge bonus by being the best at removing her high heels.
Heat wave by Karina Halle They say when life closes one door, another one opens. This door happens to lead to paradise. And a man I can never, ever have.
In bed with a highlander by Maya Banks The illegitimate daughter of the king, Mairin possesses prized property that has made her a pawn—and wary of love. Her worst fears are realized when she is rescued from peril only to be forced into marriage by her charismatic and commanding savior, Ewan McCabe.
The boss series by Abigaile Barnette When the irresistible stranger from that one incredible night turns out to be her new boss – billionaire and publishing magnate Neil Elwood – Sophie can’t resist the chance to rekindle the spark between them…
Mine til midnight by Lisa Kleypas When an unexpected inheritance elevates her family to the ranks of the aristocracy, Amelia Hathaway discovers that tending to her younger sisters and wayward brother was easy compared to navigating the intricacies of the ton. Even more challenging: the attraction she feels for the tall, dark, and dangerously handsome Cam Rohan.
Priest by Sierra Limone I broke my vow of celibacy on the altar of my own church, and God help me, I would do it again. I am a priest and this is my confession.
Gabriels inferno by Sylvain Reynard "Gabriel's Inferno" is a captivating and wildly passionate tale of one man's escape from his own personal hell as he tries to earn the impossible...forgiveness and love.
Legally yours by Nicole French he walks in to find a gorgeous redhead sitting on his windowsill. Suddenly, the idea of love at first sight seems like the most plausible thing in the world...if only the one person he wants to give his heart to would actually take it.
Bared to you by Sylvia Day Gideon Cross came into my life like lightning in the darkness. He was beautiful and brilliant, jagged and white-hot. I was drawn to him as I'd never been to anything or anyone in my life. I craved his touch like a drug. (Someone compaired this book to 50 shades)
Delta of venus by Anais Nin a book of fifteen short stories. Anais Nin’s Magical world where the characters of her imagination possess the most universal of desires and exceptional of talents.
Stranger by Megan Hart I pay strangers to sleep with me. I have my reasons.... I signed on to pick up a stranger at a bar, but took Sam home instead. And now that I've felt his heat, his sweat and everything else, can I really go back to impersonal?
Craving by Helen Hardt Talon Steel is broken. Having never fully healed from a horrific childhood trauma, he simply exists, taking from women what is offered and giving nothing in return...until Jade Roberts catapults into his life.
Playing for keeps by R.L Mathewson Done with being the world's biggest pushover, Haley decides that things are going to change starting with the aggravating neighbor who has too much charm and not enough restraint. What she didn't expect was to be sucked into his world
Skye O’Malley by Beatrice Small Follow along as Skye O'Malley is swept up in a journey filled with romance and passion that takes her from glittering Ireland, to lush Algeria, to the heart of London in pursuit of a unique and eternal love...
Flowers from the storm by Laura Kinsale The Duke of Jervaulx was brilliant - and dangerous. Considered dissolute, reckless, and extravagant, he was transparently referred to as the "D of J" in scandal sheets. But sometimes the most womanizing rakehell can be irresistible
A Lesson in thornes by Sierra Simone As Poe begins uncovering the house’s secrets, both new and old, she’s also pulled into the seductive, elegant world of Auden and his friends—and drawn to Auden’s worst enemy, the beautiful and brooding St. Sebastian.
Stepbrother dearest by Penelope Ward When tragedy struck our family, I'd have to face him again. And holy hell, the teenager who made me crazy was now a man that drove me insane. I had a feeling my heart was about to get broken again.
Real by Katy Evans He’s the star of the dangerous underground fighting circuit, and I’m drawn to him as I've never been drawn to anything in my life. I forget who I am, what I want, with just one look from him.
From Manhattan with love by Sarah Morgan when she meets gorgeous millionaire Chase Adams, she decides to channel them and act on their sizzling attraction! One magical night later, she's living the dream, but will a trip to Tiffany's make it a reality?
Baby it’s cold outside by Addison Fox Sloan McKinley travels to the heart of the Alaskan wilderness. The last thing she expects is to be lured by the town's matriarchs into their annual contest to get their grandsons married off. But Sloan can't deny the appeal of the rugged local men-Walker Montgomery in particular.
Show no mercy by Cindy Gerard Only two things can compel journalist Jenna McMillan back to Buenos Aires after terrorists held her captive there just months before: a rare interview with a shadowy billionaire and the memory of the dark and dangerous man who saved her....
The name of the game by Jennifer Dawson Gracie's year-long dry spell has her itching for a man. Responsible, health-obsessed James? Not in a million years! She needs a guy who knows how to let loose! But when James sets out to show her just how satisfying a disciplined man can be when pleasure is at stake, she learns just how sweet--and spicy--he really is.
Motorcycle man by Kristen Ashley Tyra Masters decides to chuck her old life and starts searching for something. She doesn't know what it is until she meets her dream man. The goateed, tattooed, muscled, gravelly-voiced motorcycle man who plies her with tequila and gives her the best sex of her life.
Protecting Caroline by Susan Stoker When Caroline boarded the plane to Virginia to move across the country for her new job she never expected to be seated next to the hottest guy she’d ever seen. She also never expected he’d be so easy to talk to. Neither Wolf nor Caroline were prepared for a terrorist hijacking of their plane.
If I where you by Lisa Renee Jones I began to dig, to discover this woman’s life, and yes, read her journals—-dark, erotic journals that I had no business reading. Once I started, I couldn’t stop. I read on obsessively, living out fantasies through her words that I’d never dare experience on my own, compelled by the three men in her life, none of whom had names.
Hot secrets By Lisa Renee Jones Royce Walker, a former FBI Agent, who’s opened a private security firm with his brothers, has always had the hots for the prim, proper Assistant District Attorney, but considered her hand’s off because of a family connection. However
Dirty rich one night stand by Lisa Renee Jones That's all it was supposed to be. Her. Him. Pleasure. And then a fast goodbye. He's a stranger. And yet, he's not. She knows him even though he doesn’t know her. He's the powerful attorney
This magic moment by Virna Depaul Determined to find her inner sex diva, she enlists her childhood friend, Max Dalton, to tutor her after hours. Instead, she ends up in the wrong bed and gets a lesson in passion from Max's twin brother, Rhys Dalton
Eversea by Natasha Boyd An orphaned, small-town, southern girl, held hostage by responsibility and self-doubt. A Hollywood A-list mega-star, on the run from his latest scandal and with everything to lose. A chance encounter that leads to an unlikely arrangement and epic love affair that will change them both forever.
Accidental tryst by Natasha Boyd Trystan : This is a joke, right? My life could not get more f*cked up. I’m in the middle of selling my company and on my way to a funeral and that hot mess hippie-chick stole my freaking phone
Beatiful disaster by Jamie McGuire Travis Maddox, lean, cut, and covered in tattoos, is exactly what Abby needs—and wants—to avoid. He spends his nights winning money in a floating fight ring, and his days as the ultimate college campus charmer. Intrigued by Abby’s resistance to his appeal, Travis tricks her into his daily life with a simple bet.
Lesbian 🌸🌸🌸
Tipping the velvet by Sarah Waters Historical fiction. The novel has pervasive lesbian themes, concentrating on eroticism and self-discovery.
Say please by Sinclair Sexsmith Lesbian BDSM erotica
Wetter by Harper Bliss This one was on a list of top 10 books, but i also read a few bad reviews so idk.
submitted by tyntex to u/tyntex [link] [comments]

AmunRa Casino €1000 welcome bonus and 100 free spins

AmunRa Casino €1000 welcome bonus and 100 free spins

AmunRa Casino Free Spins & Welcome Bonus
Register at AmunRa Casino now and get 100 free spins bonus! Additionally, get a €1000 welcome bonus on your first deposits. Play in the best Curacao-licensed online casino!
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AmunRa Casino Review

Amun Ra Casino has been created with Ancient Egypt in mind. It is filled with references to pyramids and statues from the area. This gives it an outstanding brand that is unmistakable. And because people have often associated Ancient Egypt with hidden treasures, it turns out to be the perfect choice for a theme.
Despite only being launched in April 2020, they already have a beautifully designed website that far surpasses the quality of its rivals. Everything is bright, glossy, and smooth. You can navigate to all of the sections on the website without any problems whatsoever. No glitches or errors present themselves, which is very encouraging. The game selection is substantial, with almost 2000 slot games on offer and many other categories available, including a live casino.
They’ve also got a pleasant welcome bonus and a few other sweeteners for current players, which means Amun-Ra is attractive not just for new players but for those who stick around as well. A loyalty program has been specially made for the most frequent and dedicated players, involving a range of tiers with greater rewards the higher you go. Another special feature on the website is also under development, which promises to give players even more chances to win. And in yet another positive note, the terms and conditions are written clearly and are simple to understand.
Sometimes it can be a burden to find out what rules apply and how you can take advantage of the offers available, but AmunRa has made sure this won’t be a problem. The player also has the option of using a live chat facility to discuss any problems they are experiencing.
This makes Amun Ra a compelling casino upon first glance, let alone once you’ve signed up. In the rest of this review, we will take you through all of the important features so that you can become familiar with, and get the most benefit from, Amun-Ra Casino. It all begins with the sign-up bonus.
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Bonuses and Promotions

AmunRa offers a multi-deposit sign-up bonus which allows new players to receive up to $1000 in additional bonus money. This gives players a great start to their gambling experience because they’ll have a higher chance of winning real money as soon as they’ve made their first few deposits. There are three further bonuses which are live at the time of writing. These are a weekly cashback, a deposit match bonus for live blackjack, and a yearly birthday bonus for all players. These add a nice touch to your experience with the casino, as you can get extra money every single week of the year. Plus, there is a tournament offering currently under development. Further details are not yet available, but it will be packed with gifts for players to win when it goes live. So make sure you keep checking their website for more information. If you’d like to know how to get access to these bonuses, you can find out more in the following sections.

Sign Up Bonus

When you’ve successfully registered with Amun-Ra, you’ll be eligible for a series of match bonuses on your first four deposits. Taken together, the bonus amounts to $1000 if you place the maximum deposit each time. The minimum deposit for each of the four deposits is $20, so be aware you will need to deposit $80 upfront to receive the minimum amount of bonus money. We’ve included the precise figures for each part of the bonus below so that you can calculate how much you’d like to deposit.
  • Your first deposit will be 100% matched up to a maximum value of $300
  • Your second deposit will be 75% matched up to a maximum value of $300
  • Your third deposit will be 50% matched up to a maximum value of $200
  • Your fourth deposit will be 100% matched up to a maximum value of $200
For the avoidance of doubt, the minimum amount you could receive in bonuses by depositing $20 each time is $65.
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Other Promotions

There are 3 additional promotions available at Amun-Ra. These are the cashback bonus, live blackjack bonus, and the birthday bonus. In this section, we will give you an overview of each one so that you know how they work and how to claim them.
The cashback bonus will grant you 10% cashback up to a cap of $1000, with the minimum amount of cashback being $5. You can claim it on any single day of each week. Cashback amounts will be credited to your real money balance upon request every Monday. To get this bonus you need to have made at least one minimum deposit that week. The formula for calculating how much cashback you’ll receive is (total deposits – total withdrawals – credited bonuses) x 10%.
The bonus for live blackjack players allows you to receive a 50% deposit match bonus up to $100. The minimum deposit is $20. Each bet is capped at $25 when playing with the funds from this bonus. This means that if you deposit the full amount, you will get an extra $50.
Every year, in the week of your birthday, you can claim a special gift so long as you have deposited at least one minimum deposit that week. The particular bonus you will receive will depend upon your activity with the casino over the past year. To claim it you will need to contact customer support using the live chat in the week of your birthday.
There is also the tournament offering, which is the special feature we mentioned in the introduction. Each tournament lasts for 24 hours and will take you on a competitive adventure to win prizes by competing against your fellow players. It looks very promising, and we can’t wait for it to go live.

Play-through Requirements (Wagering Requirements)

The general rules for the casino specify that every deposit made has to be wagered 1x. This is highly beneficial for players as many casinos set their rates much higher than this. It means that when you place the minimum deposit of $20, you only need to bet $20 before you can withdraw any winnings as real money. There is a chance this is a misunderstanding caused by the casino, but there is no mention of any other wagering rules in the terms and conditions. However, it is another story for bonus money earned through promotions. There are two specific wagering requirements relating to the sign-up bonus and the live blackjack bonus.
The wagering requirements for each deposit in the sign-up bonus is 30x, which includes your real money deposit + the bonus amount. You will need to meet each 30x requirement within 7 days of triggering the relevant part of the bonus. For example, if you activated all 4 deposit match bonuses on your first day, then you would need to wager all of the money 30x 4 times over. So when you’re claiming the welcome bonus, don’t rush ahead and grab all the deposit bonuses at once unless you are confident you could meet this requirement.
As for the live blackjack, the wagering requirements are set at a rather high 50x, and you can only meet them through that one specific game. You’ve also got to meet them within 7 days of triggering the bonus. This will be quite difficult unless you plan to place a lot of bets on live blackjack games.
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VIP & Loyalty

Amun-Ra has got a suitably themed Egyptian loyalty program based on a series of Ra-Levels. The full details about the scheme have not yet been updated on their website, but they do have a separate page dedicated to it with some intriguing information. There are silhouettes of a few Egyptian gods, and it looks like players can unlock them after earning a certain number of comp points. Each god comes with one or more gifts, as a symbol of a present is placed next to the name of each god. Only the first gift for the first god is revealed. You’ll get 10 free spins when you earn 20CP and unlock the god Ptah. The points and names of the other gods are as follows:
  • 40CP – Taweret
  • 80CP – Thoth
  • 150CP – Tefnut
  • 300CP – Reshup
More details may be provided as the casino develops its website, or it may be that the other gifts are deliberately kept secret so that they’re a surprise for players when they unlock the corresponding gods.

The AmunRa Casino

At the current time, Amun-Ra does not contain a sportsbook for players to place bets on sporting fixtures. This may change in the future if the casino decides to rebrand or expand, and as soon as we hear about a sportsbook is available, we will write a review of it and put the link here. In the meantime, please feel free to check out our other sportsbook reviews.

How to Start Playing

Luckily, Amun-Ra provides a page with all the details about their registration process. A wide range of countries is restricted on the casino, which includes the United States of America, Australia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, Ireland, Italy, France, Turkey, Spain, Slovakia, and Lithuania. The full list is available on the website. You will need to be at least 18 years of age to join. Here is the process you need to follow to successfully join Amun-Ra:
1. Click the blue Join Now button in the top right corner of the website 2. Provide your date of birth, first and last name, registered address, correct email address, and telephone number 3. Create a username and password 4. Register one of the approved payment methods and make the minimum deposit 5. Select the game you’d like to play and begin enjoying AmunRa
The casino has the right to verify your identity. This means your address, contact number and email address must be correct, and any identity documents provided to the casino must be genuine. The casino does this as part of their Know Your Customer procedure and to prove your age.
If they are not satisfied with you, they can refuse registration and close and/or close your account, but if you do everything according to the instructions, there should be no problems.

Payments

The casino accepts deposits and withdrawals from a variety of methods, including cards and e-wallets. The minimum deposit on Amun-Ra is $20, and the minimum withdrawal amount is also $20. You can withdraw a maximum of $7500 a week and $15000 a month. The casino has the right to divide anything over $15000 into monthly installments.

Deposit methods

There are 11 deposit methods at Amun-Ra, and here is the full list:
• Visa • Mastercard • Paysafecard • Trustly • Klarna • Maestro • Skrill • Neosurf • Neteller • Rapid Transfer • Interac Online • ecoPayz
The processing time for all of these methods is instant, and there are no extra fees charged for transactions.

Minimum & Maximum Deposits

Each of the deposit methods listed above has a minimum deposit amount of $20 except for Interac Online. They have a minimum deposit amount of $10, but this is irrelevant as the casino has a general minimum of $20. The maximum deposit amount varies, and they are listed below alongside each method:
• Visa – $4000 • Mastercard – $4000 • Paysafecard – $1000 • Trustly – $5000 • Klarna – $2500 • Maestro – $4000 • Skrill – $10000 • Neosurf – $10000 • Neteller – $4000 • Rapid Transfer – $4000 • Interac Online -$4000 • ecoPayz – $4000

Casino payout

The casino has a slightly smaller number of withdrawal methods, with a total of 8. They are listed below, along with their payout speeds. Each one has a minimum withdrawal amount of $10 and a maximum of $4000, except for Paysafecard, which has a maximum of $250.
• Visa – 1-3 banking days • Mastercard – 1-3 banking days • Paysafecard – instant • Trustly – instant • Bank Transfer – 1-5 banking days • Skrill – instant • Neteller – instant • ecoPayz – instant
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Casino Games

Amun-Ra provides a comprehensive selection of games across many different categories. These are video slots, blackjack, table games, video poker, jackpot, and Egyptian-themed games. They also provide a live casino for a more immersive experience, along with separate sections for new and for popular games. We will explore the slots, table games, and live casinos in the following sections so that you can get a taste of what’s available. You can also rest assured that the site is organized well and everything is easy to find.

Casino Slots

Video slots comprise the majority of the games on offer at Amun-Ra, and these are the ones you will probably spend most of your time using. Amun-Ra currently makes use of 27 game providers including Microgaming, Quickspin, NextGen, Betsoft Gaming, Sapphire, Fantasma, and Yggdrasil. All of the games cover plenty of genres and themes, such as dance, beaches, birds, outer space, romance, dragons, and royalty. Of course, there is also the section dedicated to Egyptian games. They include Book of Dead, Eye of Ra, Max Quest: Wrath of Ra, Enchanted Cleopatra, Legacy of Egypt, Egyptian Fortunes, and more. You can find out which slots are the best according to players using the popular section. Some of the most popular slots include Sweet Bonanza, Buffalo King, Starburst, Rise of Merlin, and Narcos.

Casino Table Games

Amun-Ra offers three main table games, which are blackjack, roulette, and video poker. There are separate pages for each one on the website. The blackjack section is enormous, with over 120 games available. Blackjack Bonus, American Blackjack, Red Queen Blackjack, 21 Blackjack, Blackjack Classic, and Infinite Blackjack are just a few of the types of blackjack on offer. The roulette section is somewhat smaller with just over 80 games, but this is still plenty. Versions of the game at Amun-Ra include Rapid Automatic Roulette, Roulette Master, Silver Roulette, Gold Roulette, Zoom Roulette, and Roulette Royal. Finally, there are 23 video poker games available, featuring choices such as Kings or Better, Joker Poker, Tens or Better, and Deuces Wild.

Live Dealer Games

The live casino at Amun-Ra is one of the largest on the market, with over 200 games. However, there is not much variety. Most of the games are versions of classic titles like blackjack and roulette. Speed Blackjack, VIP Roulette, Common Draw Blackjack, Blitz Blackjack, Standard Blackjack, Blackjack Ruby, American Roulette, and Auto Roulette are a few of the versions available. Several baccarat games are available such as Speed Baccarat and Salon Prive Baccarat, along with a few other games like Super Sic Bo and Side Bet City. The game show Mega Ball is also featured in the live casino. Unlike some casinos, Amun-Ra offers games from more than one live provider, and the choices available for those who want to play blackjack are particularly worth noting. There are simply more than you’d ever expect, and that dovetails nicely with the blackjack match bonus.

Mobile & Apps

Amun-Ra Casino does not currently offer a mobile casino application for either iOS or Android devices, which is a disappointment. However, they do provide a tailor-made experience if you use your phone’s browser. This in-browser version of Amun-Ra mimics the website very closely and has all of the same functionality. It is also free from technical difficulties, which can sometimes make mobile casinos challenging to use. A menu on the side of the website gives you all of the options, and the main screen follows the same layout as it does on a computer. You’ll find the promotions listed at the top, followed by the game categories and then further information about the casino. This makes it simple and quick to use, which is always helpful when you’re busy.

Security & Licensing

This casino is owned by N1 Interactive Ltd, which is registered in Malta with the number C 81457 at the address given at the bottom of their website. They are licensed and regulated by the Malta Gaming Authority with the license number MGA/B2C/394/2017, which was issued on 01/08/2018. For added protection, you can secure your account with two-factor authentication to minimize the risk of it being misused.

Customer Support

To get in touch with Amun-Ra, you can do one of two things. You can email them at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]), or use the live chat facility on their website which can be accessed by pressing either the help button in the bottom right corner of the live chat button in the bottom left corner. Live chat is available 24/7. They also have an FAQ page to help with common queries, which you can find in the links at the bottom of the page.

Betopin’s Verdict

AmunRa casino sets an example to the rest in terms of its slick design, ease of use, and visual appeal. No casino is perfect, but this one comes very close. Everything works as it should do, the terms and conditions are easy to follow, and several solid bonuses are provided both for new and returning players. The tournament system looks particularly promising. They’ve managed to strike a balance between being too intense with graphics, and being too plain.
This balance is exactly right. Players will enjoy using the website, but not be distracted by it whilst they’re getting on with gambling or administrative tasks within their account. Plenty of support is available from Amun-Ra, and there is no shortage of intriguing games to maintain interest, even after you’ve been signed up for a long time. The only minor drawback is that the loyalty program is somewhat unclear. The information has not been given regarding how players can accumulate comp points and claim rewards. And by only revealing one of the rewards, there is an element of mystery, but it also doesn’t give the player anything specific to work towards. Overall, this is a casino that could become one of your firm favorites as soon as you begin using it. It has all the games and features that you would expect from a top-quality online casino.
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An Overview of Arizona Primary Races - Part 1: Statewide and Congressional Races

Welcome back to my omnibus compendium of Arizona’s upcoming primary races in the style of my 2018 summaries (that’s just LDs 21-30, links for 1-20, Congressional, and statewide races are in that post). The primary is set to take place August 4th – early voting ballots should be mailed out on or around July 6th.
Arizona’s a really interesting state (I may be a hair biased), since it not only is home to 2-3 swing House seats and a high-profile Senate race, but also tenuous majorities in both state houses that could – theoretically – neuter Ducey’s trifecta this fall. And counties have their races this year as well, and I’ll highlight some of the fireworks ongoing in Maricopa.
If you’re interested about which district you live in, check https://azredistricting.org/districtlocato. If you want to get involved with your local Democratic party, find your legislative district on the previous link (NOT CD), and then search for your LD’s name at this link. Feel free to attend meetings, they’re a great way to get involved with candidates and like-minded individuals. If you wish to donate to a “clean elections” candidate (mentioned in the post as “clean”), you will have to live in that candidate’s legislative district to give qualifying $5 contributions (check here if anyone needs it in your area), but they are allowed to accept a limited amount of “seed money” from people outside of the district. The three CorpComm candidates can take $5’s statewide.
If you do not want to vote at the polls, you will need to request an early ballot using the website of your county’s recorder prior to July 4th. Example links for Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal. Others available if needed.
Race ratings for listed primaries will be listed as Solid/Likely/Leans/Tossup and are not indicative of my own preference for that seat. I’ll denote my personal primary preferences at the end of this series, as well as the best Republican ticket for the Dems if someone here really really wants to pull a GOP ballot in the primary. I do not advise it, but since I can't stop ya, you'll get my best suggestions.
Write-in candidates have yet to file, which could give us an outside chance at getting some Libertarians on the ballot (the Greens have lost their ballot access).
If you have any questions about voting in the primary, which races are the most contested, and how to get involved with other Democrats in Arizona, feel free to PM me.
All fundraising numbers here are as of 12/31/2019 – although Q1 numbers are dropping within a week or so. I’ll probably post a quick update after signature challenges are done and all Q1 numbers are in the books. Candidates who are partially self-funding have how much they’ve given to themselves listed after their COH as an indicator of how much of their own cash they’re pouring into the race. Not all of it, obviously, is still on hand.
ALL OPINIONS ARE MY OWN SOLELY IN MY CAPACITY AS A VOTER IN ARIZONA, AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF ANY ORGANIZATIONS I WORK/ED FOR OR AM/WAS A MEMBER OF. THIS POST IS IN NO WAY ENDORSED BY THE ARIZONA DEMOCRATIC PARTY OR ANY SUB-ORGANIZATION THEREOF, OR ANY FILED CANDIDATE.
Statewides
Without further ado, the statewide races! Or more precisely, race. (US Senate is counted as a congressional)
Corporations Commission
I know this is what each and every one of you has been waiting for, the Corporations Commission! (hereafter CorpComm)
Yes, just like Arizona is the only state in the country with an elected mine inspector, it is also only one of 14 which has an elected Public Utilities commission. The AZ Constitution explicitly calls for this because, to quote Wikipedia: “its drafters feared that governors would appoint industry-friendly officials”.
Unfortunately, that is not the case. Even though the commission is elected, lax-er campaign finance laws permit for public utilities to spend massive amounts of money on pro-utility candidates. The commission then raises utility rates, which means more money going to the utilities, and more money to spend on pro-utility candidates. And so on and so forth. The former chair, Susan Bitter-Smith, was removed due to a corruption complaint in 2017.
Therefore, corruption by the utilities is a big issue in this race, as well as how much to focus on renewable energy policies. An interesting side-effect is that far more candidates for CorpComm are signing up for public funding, which locks them into some pretty strict rules (thanks to the GOP legislature and voters in 2018).
The commission is a five member board, staggered so that three seats are up in presidential years, and two are up in midterm elections. Because of this, incumbents Sandra Kennedy (D) and Justin Olson (R) are safe until 2022.
Moderate Republican Bob Burns did not file run for re-election (he was kinda pro-solar and viciously anti-corruption, I’ll miss the guy), while definitely-not-moderate Andy Tobin was tapped by Ducey to lead the Department of Administration (HR, procurement, accounting, etc. for state agencies and replaced by 2018 AZ-02 GOP nominee Lea Marquez Peterson ($7K COH, clean – hereafter LMP). Boyd Dunn ($39.5K COH) is the one Republican elected in 2016 who is trying to return for another term.
LMP’s decision to run clean – instead of “traditional” (not taking public funds) – is quite odd for established GOP candidates. This could be a sign of changing voter attitudes, pointing to corruption being a larger and larger issue for both GOP and Dem. voters.
There are three Dems running for the three seats. Former commissioner and 2016 and 2018 CorpComm nominee Bill Mundell ($10.6K COH, clean), teacher and education activist Shea Stanfield ($4.7K COH, clean), and Tolleson Mayor Anna Tovar ($1.8K COH, clean). All 3 progress automatically to the general election. Tovar in particular is a big get for Dems – she was a former Senate Minority Leader and it’s a great sign that she’s back in the fight and wanting to run statewides
I’d be remiss if I didn’t quickly touch on my dislike of Mundell – the 2018 CorpComm primary was very contentious due to Mundell persuading his runningmate Sandra Kennedy (and not the other way around, as I had wrongly assumed back then) to going very negative against the other Democrat in the race, Kiana Sears. Mundell lost that primary to Sears and Kennedy (2 seats were up then), but his attack campaign was strong enough that Kennedy and Sears were driven from being pleasant acquaintances (both being liberal black women in utility-related politics) to not being on speaking terms. Sears lost that race – it’s anyone’s guess how much of that was due to the ugly primary. The uncontested nature here should help Dems somewhat from cannibalizing one of their own.
On the Republican challenger’s side there are quite a few candidates. Outside of Dunn and LMP, former legislator David Farnsworth ($6.7K COH) is the chief candidate, and seems set to come into this race with a decent amount of legislative connections and backing. But Kim Owens ($2.5K COH) has stronger experience claims – having spent 3 terms on the Salt River Project Council (basically a mini CorpComm), as well as 5 terms on a school board. The SRP connections come at a cost though, as they don’t play well in this political climate. And despite being endorsed by Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-AZ, CD8), Owens has been taking some flack from further-right organizations for her past work on the George Bush and John Kasich presidential campaigns.
Other candidates in the Republican race include 2018 failed candidate Eric Sloan - who is making a visible outreach to the Trumpier side of the party and is running in opposition to clean energy mandates ($3.5K COH, clean) and Nick Myers ($1.7K, clean), who ran for HD12 in 2018 on a platform of banning all public schools. It’s again noteworthy that Sloan and Myers – who both eschewed clean funding in 2018 (and as far I can remember one of the two had strong negative words about the program) – are now running clean. Neither is favored in the primary but Sloan could theoretically muscle himself into 3rd place with enough pro-Trump rhetoric.
The general will probably see both groups of candidates more or less match the generic ballot statewide, but the campaign finance rules in Arizona could play an interesting role. Democrats will naturally be at a disadvantage due to locking themselves into rather restrictive campaign finance rules (can’t raise over a certain amount, banned from using specific party resources, etc.) - but so will LMP or Sloan/Myers if they win. And while the Democrats will all be operating alone, LMP (or the two oddballs) wont be able to do the same things GOP candidates running traditional can do – both from a stance of political pragmatism and of legality. That could lead to some disjointedness that the GOP definitely doesn’t want.
The two sides are evenly matched in terms of candidate quality – LMP and Tovar, Dunn and Mundell, and Stanfield and Farnsworth are all roughly comparable – but this may tilt slightly in the Dems’ favor if one of the other GOP candidates makes it on.
hunter15991 Rating: Dems. unopposed. Solid Dunn, Likely LMP, Leans Farnsworth. Leans GOP general.
Congressional Races
Ok, you've had your veggies. Time for the fun stuff.
Congressional District 1
CD1 is one of 2-3 districts that the national parties are probably focusing in on for this cycle (R+2, Trump+1, Sinema+4). On the Democratic side, Representative Tom O’Halleran ($918.8K COH) is running for re-election. Originally a Republican legislator, O’Halleran slowly veered left as the state party veered rightwards, and is now on the liberal end of the Blue Dog Democrats.
O’Halleran faces a tougher primary than he’s used to (not a high bar to clear, though) in the form of Flagstaff City Councilwoman Eva Putzova ($15.2K), running strongly to O’Halleran’s left. Putzova’s campaign got off to a bit of a rocky start, and while she’s found her footing she still significantly lags behind O’Halleran in COH and in name recognition outside of Flagstaff. While Flagstaff is the largest and most liberal city in the district, it’s still <10% of the total population of this very rural district. Putzova will be able to close the margins O’Halleran set against a similar further-left candidate in 2016, but O’Halleran’s strong connections with the indigenous communities that make up 25% of the district’s population (and therefore close to 50% of the Dem. voting base there) should put him over the line in August. A 3rd big name Dem., former State Senator Barb McGuire, has filed to run for her old Senate seat in SD8 instead and dropped out from the AZ-01 race.
On the Republican side it’s an absolute recruiting nightmare, even worse so than in 2018 when outsider perennial candidate Wendy Rogers beat out theocratic legislative superstar Steve Smith. The current frontrunner for this race is Tiffany Shedd ($112.3K COH), a farmer and shotgun coach who took a distant last place in the GOP primary here in 2018. I’ve linked not to her website but to her announcement video, where she gives the lamest voice-over possible, throws out countless trite references to how horrible it is that “a 29 year-old girl from New York is telling us what to do at the border” (whoever could that possibly be?), and insinuates (but never says) that she once shot at a band of men approaching her farm. It’s worth watching.
I should add at this point that while her video goes on and on with immigrant race-baiting and references to “the wall”, no part of AZ-01 is even in the same county as the US-Mexico border. These are tactics 2018 nominee Wendy Rogers (more on her in the legislative section) loved to use, and she lost to O’Halleran.
Shedd snagged the endorsements of people like Kevin McCarthy and Jon Kyl rather early on, dissuading former baseball star Curt Schilling from running and consolidating the active field of candidates around her (which is good, because one guy who bailed on the race – Safford Vice Mayor and former Army paratrooper Chris Taylor - could have been quite dangerous, especially with his Spanish fluency). Shedd is the only Arizonan in the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program, listed as “On The Radar” (their lowest tier). The two other Republicans who have qualified for the ballot (pending signatures) are businessman Noel Reidhead ($35.4K COH) and Apache County Supervisor Doyel Shamley (no reports yet filed). Reidhead seems to be a hair more charismatic and professional than Shedd, but stands little chance building anti-establishment cred vs. Shedd, especially taking into account whatever infrastructure she has from her 2018 run. Shamley too could theoretically pose Shedd trouble with his past political experience as a Republican in a very Democratic county (although it’s very polarized, and he lives in the blood-red Mormon area), but he is also quite a conspiracy theorist (all 4 links are worth a read). Shamley also has only ~10.3% buffer on his petition signatures (it’s recommended to aim for at least 25% if not far more) and could be knocked off the ballot by a stiff breeze.
In the general it’s looking like it’ll be O’Halleran vs. Shedd, and without significant GOP backup from IE’s and downballot races it looks like Tom may blow the barn, er, shed doors off this next push by the GOP to oust him. This could shift towards Leans if Shedd posts a good quarter or two of fundraising and ups her digital game.
hunter15991 Rating: Likely O’Halleran, Likely Shedd. Likely O’Halleran general.
Congressional District 2
Moving right along to another GOP mess, CD2. Incumbent Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick ($621.1K COH) was admitted into an alcohol rehab program last fall, which sparked some thoughts that this district may end up being close. Republican candidates however have yet to create any sort of spark in this seat this year (well, outside of one vaguely threatening to shoot Kirkpatrick – upstanding citizen whom we’ll get to in a second).
Kirkpatrick is being primaried by former State Department official Peter Quilter (no reports yet filed). His issues page puts him as roughly rank-and-file with the rest of the party, so I’m a bit curious as to why he filed to run against an ideologically similar incumbent – but that’s his prerogative. Quilter started signature collection rather later and is also in danger of getting bounced off if someone challenges them.
On the GOP side it’s another AZ-01. I’m not even entirely sure who the frontrunner is, it’s that chaotic and stupid. Is it Shay Stautz ($65.6K COH), a rather mild-mannered former university administrator and national security expert, but whose $65.6K warchest includes $60K of his own money and who sits awfully close to falling below the signature line? Is it Brandon Martin ($9.2K), 2018 2nd place finisher and Army vet who seems to lead in the endorsement and signature game, but who has an atrocious burn rate and who has a tendency of insinuating people should shoot the Congresswoman currently representing the seat once held by Gabby Giffords? Is it Joseph Morgan ($4.6K COH), who has a respectable enough background as a newspaper columnist and nonprofit assistant and whom Martin considers his chief rival (judging by his press release claiming Morgan “flip flops on sanctuary cities), but who hasn’t tweeted since October and whose fundraising is abysmal? ($22.2K raised despite filing in February) I guess it isn’t Noran Eric Ruden (no reports filed), who filed late, has little online presence, and in general seems to be doing little campaigning – but with how bizarre the other candidates are Ruden could surprise me.
Whoever Kirkpatrick faces in the general is again going to be limping badly without outside GOP support. And this time the turf isn’t a Trump+1 rural district that’s slowly inching left, it’s a Clinton+5 seat situated in the suburbs of Arizona’s 2nd largest (and decidedly liberal) city. For competent state legislators this’d be a rather tall ask, for the motely crew the GOP have assembled above it’s almost a suicide mission.
The alcohol rehab issue with Kirkpatrick and potential fallout stemming from that is the only reason I don’t currently have this at Solid D. I realize the national and state party will get behind one candidate at some point but I don’t know how they could feasibly pull off this one given they triaged a significantly stronger candidate in 2018 – against a non-incumbent Kirkpatrick – who then lost to Ann by 10 points.
hunter15991 Rating: Solid Kirkpatrick, Tossup GOP (Statuz/Morgan/Martin). Likely Kirkpatrick general.
Congressional District 3
Bit of a snoozefest here (thankfully for me since it’s then shorter to write). Incumbent Raul Grijalva ($211.2K) is running for another term, although he may retire after this next term which would set off a lot of drama in the district. He has no primary opposition and faces OIF Marine and current “Executive Protection Agent” (looks like a cross between a security consultant and bodyguard) Daniel Wood (no reports filed). Running in a D+13, Clinton+29 minority-majority district when your issues page consists solely of the words “Immigration - Coming Soon” is a bold plan. It’s also an insanely foolhardy one.
hunter15991 Rating: Uncontested primaries. Solid Grijalva general.
Congressional District 4
For every yin there is a yang, and in CD3’s case it’s its neighbor to the north, CD4. The current incumbent is far-right Congressman Paul Gosar ($222.6K), whose greatest hits need no introduction. I sat in on a conservative club’s meeting on campus and heard that, in his words, a “Justice Democrats Deep State Plant” was going to primary him soon, and to not fall for what she was spreading.
Well, sure as anything, he did get a primary challenger mere hours after that meeting ended, former McSally staffer Anne Marie Ward ($13.3K COH – no relation). Ward’s website points to her wanting to tack slightly closer to the center than Gosar (again, low bar to clear), in an effort to attract the youth back to conservatism. Her issues pages seems to possibly be purposefully vague. While I’d love for Gosar to be replaced someone less likely to fly to the UK to meet neo-Nazis or author resolutions thanking Hungarian autocrats for their leadership, Ward doesn’t look like she’s going anywhere in a hurry 6 months after she announced.
The Democratic side also poses no threat to Gosar. The nominal frontrunner is nurse Delina DiSanto ($13.3K COH), who lost to Dr. David Brill last year and was, coincidentally, the GOP nominee in CO-03 back in 2004. DiSanto’s political metamorphosis doesn’t end there, back in 2018 she hammered Brill for not supporting M4A enough, but her issues page this year seems very dialed down. DiSanto is being challenged by perennial candidate Stu Starky (no reports yet filed – though they should have since he declared in June). Starky is most noticeable for his Hail Mary Senate run against John McCain in 2004 (McCain won by 56 points), as well as multiple House runs in the late 90’s and apparently considered filing for President once. When he filed I saw his social media had a lot of pro-Green Party stuff in the past, but oddly enough his issues page now has a strong focus on deficit reduction of all things, and advocates for a public healthcare option.
Regardless, none of the 3 other candidates in the race can stop Gosar at this point, and I highly doubt any will ever be able to.
hunter15991 Rating: Solid Gosar, Likely DiSanto. Solid Gosar general.
Congressional District 5
To quote my 2018 writeup: “I promise the fun stuff comes back soon enough. CD5 is something like CD4, except instead of a rural stretch of mountains filled with rednecks, it’s picturesque rows of suburban mansions filled with Mormons. Freedom Caucus nut and former President of the AZ Senate Andy Biggs ($481.8K COH) is the incumbent, having won the seat in a contentious primary in 2016.”
Yeah, not much has changed here. We’ll see what redistricting brings.
The three Dems vying for the seat are businesswoman/animal rights activist and 2018 nominee Joan Greene ($4.2K COH), teacher Jonathan Ireland (no reports filed) running on a standard Bernie-style platform, and attorney Javier Ramos (refusing to take donations, no filings), who’s running a very weird race and seems to be actively avoiding harping on his legal career.
I was impressed when Greene cracked 40% in 2018. There is no way any of these 3 could crack 50% in this district. Biggs’s only threat is in a primary, which he has escaped.
hunter15991 Rating: Biggs uncontested, Likely Greene. Solid Biggs general.
Congressional District 6
Told y’all the fun stuff was coming.
On paper, CD6 isn’t the most flippy of districts. Incumbent GOP Representative David Schweikert ($278.5K) has held the Democrat running below 40% for three straight elections after taking it from former Tempe mayor Harry Mitchell in the 2010 wave election. The candidate endorsements by azCentral for the 2016 Democratic primary bemoaned the lack of strong candidates, calling the eventual nominee “less unqualified for the job”.
But he had his margin cut to just 10 points in 2018 – a sign of swinging suburbs like Scottsdale – and this seat is one of the early few on the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” list this year.
On the Dems. side, 2018 nominee Anita Malik ($46.2K COH), trying to improve on her 10 point loss in 2018. Malik, in my mind, is not the frontrunner in this primary, although I didn’t think she was last year and got stung. Dr. Hiral Vyas Tipirneni ($911.9K COH) is running for CD6 this time round, after two close elections (1 special, 1 general) in neighboring CD8. Hiral has been ribbed somewhat for this district hop, but I buy her justification – her work and community connections are all in CD6, and despite being registered in CD8 her house is so close to the boundary line that I think a small portion of her backyard is in CD6. Joining Malik and Tipirineni are businesswoman and 2x legislative candidate in the 2000’s Stephanie Rimmer ($67.5K COH, $114.5K self-funded), and businessman/former McCain legislative staffer Karl Gentles ($80.3K COH).
Malik and Tipirneni were great friends during the 2018 election, but they’ve rather soured now that they’re running against each other. While Gentles and Rimmer have strong ability for growth, I believe the race will come down to Malik and Tipirneni, and I think Tipirneni ends up taking the win in that regard. Malik enters the race with decent name rec. and has a decent bloc of progressive supporters and volunteers, but Hiral has a massive fundraising advantage (Malik anecdotally hates calling for donations) – far greater than Dr. Heather Ross’s in 2018 when she lost to Malik. Tipirneni is also quite beloved by the AZ Republic (judging by their glowing endorsement of her in the fall of 2018) – this is bad news for Malik because the Republic’s endorsement of her was seen as what pushed her across the line in the 2018 primary (Ross led narrowly in absentees, and Election Day ballots – the only ones post-endorsement – broke to Malik).
In the general, Hiral has all the ingredients going for her. Schweikert is running under the shadow of a House Ethics investigation, is doing atrociously in fundraising, and would be going up against a well-known campaigning and fundraising machine in the form of Tipirneni. Hiral’s drive can be seen by the fact that her first campaign office was opened in last November, a full 51 weeks before the election (typically they’ve opened around here in the spring or early summer). Downballot Dems. in the area are improving sizably in terms of fundraising, and enthusiasm is high. The seat is R+10, but McSally only one it by 3 in 2018, and that’s far too close for comfort if I’m David Schweikert. A private internal (I plied it out of a GOP friend of mine who works in his legislative office) shows Schweikert up by ~7-8, which when adjusting for the fact internals always slant in the commissioning campaign’s favor points to quite the close race. I can definitely see this race entering tossup category, especially if Tipirneni is the nominee.
I’ll close with another anecdote about just how scared Schweikert is of Hiral from the same staffer friend – news broke to Schweikert of Hiral’s announcement back last spring during a staff meeting in his office. Schweikert, on hearing the news she had filed, turned even more pale than he normally is and left the room in a fluster. My friend said he could hear him yelling after he left.
I hope he does the exact same on November 3rd.
hunter15991 Rating: Leans Tipirneni, Schweikert uncontested. Leans Schweikert general.
Congressional District 7
The next two aren’t going to be all that interesting, so due to time constraints I’ll be a hair shallow on them. Incumbent Congressman Ruben Gallego ($859.3K COH) is uncontested on the Democratic side, and faces token GOP opposition in this deep blue district from businessman Josh Barnett ($634.64 COH) and community activist Nina Becker (no reports filed). Neither is particularly far above the signature minimum and if/when Gallego feels cheeky, both could be sued off the ballot.
hunter15991 Rating: Gallego uncontested, Likely Barnett. Solid Gallego general.
Congressional District 8
Once the site of a heated race between Tiprineni and Debbie Lesko ($379.2K COH), the district is on no one’s radar this time around. Lesko faces no GOP opposition in the primary, and the 3 Democratic candidates in the general – former HD22 candidate and businessman Michael Muscato ($14.4K COH), Army veteran Bob Olson ($39K COH, self-funding $50K), and former Litchfield Park City Councilman and City Manager Bob Musselwhite ($844 COH). Olson and Musselwhite ran in past years, with no real success. Musselwhite could theoretically have made a decent enough bid at the nomination either now or in past years, but doesn’t really seem to like campaigning and until recently shied away from his political experience in-district – a bizarre thing to do to say the least.
CD8 has a few intriguing candidates on its Dem. bench – most notably State Superintendent Kathy Hoffman – but for the time being it’s Lesko’s fiefdom to lose. I probably guess the Dem. nomination goes to Muscato, as he’s the only one of the 3 Dems really campaigning.
hunter15991 Rating: Leans Muscato, Lesko uncontested, Solid Lesko general.
Congressional District 9
Home stretch everyone! 1 more district before we fawn over Mark Kelly.
Greg Stanton ($615.8K COH) is the incumbent Democrat in the district. A former Mayor of Phoenix, Stanton was initially considering what is now Sinema’s Senate seat (the two aren’t on the best of terms) before national Democrats persuaded him to instead contest the Congressional seat Sinema had vacated. Stanton easily defeated radiologist Steve “Welfare recipients are like starving pets” Ferrara in 2018, and mostly dissuaded the GOP from fielding a serious candidate this year.
Stanton is facing a primary from the left from “science activist” and quasi-perennial candidate Talia Fuentes-Wolfe (no reports filed). Fuentes ran against Stanton in 2018 (after being the Dem. nominee in CD5 in 2016), but was removed from the ballot over signature validity issues – per friends of mine on the Stanton campaign, massive amounts looked like they were written in the exact same handwriting.
Stanton could be vulnerable to a legitimate challenge from the left (someone like State Rep. Athena Salman or State Sen. Juan Mendez), but Fuentes poses no significant opposition. If she is not removed again for signature validity issues or legal issues with her campaign finance reports that the Stanton campaign offered to ignore in 2018 (that would have led to criminal penalties for Fuentes and her treasurer), she doesn’t have much of a base of support in the district (hell, her website hasn’t been updated since 2018). Talia’s been prone to what I will diplomatically call “eccentric outbursts” at local activists and volunteers (some as young as college sophomores) and hasn’t made many friends in the area. I will leave specific interactions out of this post to avoid dunking on her too much, but feel free to PM me for details.
On the Republican side, 2016 nominee and 2018 candidate Dave Giles ($336 COH) is sticking his head into the meatgrinder again. Giles lost by 20 to Sinema in 2016 and by 27 to Ferrara in the 2018 primary – normally I wouldn’t see him going anywhere again this year. But he has a chance to out-Trump the other two candidates. Pharmacist Nicholas Tutora (no reports filed) is a good equivalent to Ferrara in 2018 – conservative, but not spamming pics of him with Trump everywhere like Giles. He’d be a strong candidate in the primary if he posts a couple good quarters of fundraising, but given that he never filed his Q4 report I doubt things are looking all that rosy for him. Meanwhile, Dr. Sam Huang (no reports filed) is a current Chandler City Councilman also angling to become the CD9 GOP nominee. Huang has by far the best background of the 3 (the only one with political experience) and has both a geographic (Chandler) and demographic (Taiwanese-Americans) base of support, and is probably the most moderate of the 3.
However, both of those advantages are significantly neutered by the layout of CD9. Most of Chandler is in CD5, and the CD9 portion is generally more liberal than the CD5. And while having strong support among the Taiwanese community is a strong plus, it’ll probably be more than cancelled out by the unfortunate racial stigma Asian-Americans are facing during the COVID19 crisis. I would not put it past Giles to racebait about Huang, and I think the GOP primary base here may lap that up.
In the general Stanton could have been slightly spooked by a well-funded Huang campaign, but I just don’t see Huang making it. And even so, the district is simply galloping to the left at too fast of a pace for the GOP to keep up – the one or two candidates who could plausibly do it (Tempe Councilwoman Robin Arredondo-Savage, State Sen. Kate Brophy McGee) are off doing their own thing. Arredondo-Savage could pose a threat in 2022 if she decides to run in a redrawn district, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.
hunter15991 Rating: Solid Stanton, Tossup GOP (Huang/Giles). Solid Stanton general.
US Senate
Thanks for staying with me through this post. Here’s what you’ve all been waiting for.
Martha McSally ($7.66M COH) is the incumbent Senator, having been appointed by Governor Doug Ducey (R) after Sen. Jon Kyl left the seat in the winter of 2018 (who himself had been appointed when Sen. John McCain passed in September 2018). McSally, as you all know, lost the 2018 Senate election to Kyrsten Sinema, and it raised some eyebrows when Ducey appointed her to this spot. The rumor – which has some validity to it – was that Ducey purposefully selected a weak McSally to fill the seat so that she’d lose in 2020, so that he himself could run for it unimpeded in 2022. Ducey was on track to appoint himself when Kyl was going to leave, but due to a come-from-behind win by State Sen. Katie Hobbs (D) in the Secretary of State race (who’d become Governor if Ducey vacated the seat) his plans were dashed.
McSally is despised by the Kelli Ward bloc of the party, and there was a big hubbub when businessman Daniel McCarthy ($34.9K COH, self-funding $149.6K) filed to run against her last fall. While he has the made the ballot – no small feat – he has yet to really turn on the self-funding spigot. Maybe this will change in the coming months, but for the time being it doesn’t really look like he’s ready to go full bore against McSally. She’s currently on track to easily win the primary, although it’ll be interesting to see – if McCarthy never does go all-in – just how many votes his skeleton candidacy will still win. I’d bet at least 1/3rd of the GOP primary base, to be honest.
McSally’s fundraising has been very impressive, leading all competitive GOP Senators nationally and raising the 6th most among all Senate candidates this year. It is therefore a delicious twist of fate that her sole Democratic opponent – astronaut and gun control advocate Mark Kelly ($13.61M COH) has raised the most among any Senate candidate – challenger or incumbent – this cycle. Yes, that’s more money raised and COH than Mitch McConnell or John Cornyn, who have had since 2015 to fundraise. It’s more COH than McSally and Sen. Thom Tillis (R, NC) COMBINED.
It’s a lot.
Kelly also holds strong support among Democratic base by virtue of his past work with Giffords PAC and his marriage to former Rep. Gabby Giffords (who was shot in the head during a 2011 assassination attempt) – beloved by even some Republicans.
McSally has been polling 7-8 points behind Kelly on the RCP average and has been trending ever so slightly downwards since the start of the campaign. The GOP could very well retain this seat in the fall, but polling, fundraising, the national climate, and a non-empty GOP primary are all big thorns in McSally’s side, as well as a fractured base of support (exacerbated by the fact that Kelli Ward is now AZ-GOP chair).
Personally I think Ducey knew exactly what he was doing when he appointed McSally. She’s no longer a rising-star fighter pilot – one of her engines is on fire, she’s taking flak from friendly forces on the ground, and she’s coming in for one hell of a crash landing.
AZ Dems attitude about this race is a simple one. To quote a favorite line of Gabby and Mark’s:
“Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.”
hunter15991 Rating: Likely McSally, Kelly uncontested. Leans Kelly general.
Hope you’ve enjoyed this read! I’m going to try to knock out Maricopa County candidates today (and possibly other large counties like Pima) and get to the legislative ones this weekend. Any update due to signature challenges or fundraising reports dropping should come closer to the end of the month.
I’ll be splitting up my “endorsements” (both Dem. and “best-case R”) on each page and then again all at once at the end of this series. They’ll be listed in the comments, for posterity.
submitted by hunter15991 to VoteBlue [link] [comments]

Android TV box that can do love tv with DVB-S and DVB-T?

I'm looking for an Android TV box that I can watch all apps and also live TV with. I live in Ireland so get some channels via DVB-T and some via DVB-S.
Is there an Android TV box that can do that? Ideally with the tuners built in but I don't mind getting separate USB ones also if that will work. I'm thinking Nvidia Shield would be best bet but wanna make sure the tuners would work.
submitted by Usheen1 to AndroidTV [link] [comments]

Zoom CEO Eric Yuan Is Giving K-12 Schools His Videoconferencing Tools For Free

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2020/03/13/zoom-video-coronavirus-eric-yuan-schools/?subId1=xid%3Afr1584152044402jhi&fbclid=IwAR2XiHAjhJcgxIP3FfUr7zwNe1GulL60t6euYhi2-XFdEmBwymVqIYxc-E0#28fa9f144e71
On Thursday, on the heels of Zoom's biggest day ever for downloads the day before, CEO Eric Yuan was taking the time to remotely sign up schools to free accounts of his videoconferencing software. First was a prestigious school in Silicon Valley, then two schools in the Austin, Texas area.
“They told me they’d connect with my team, and I said, ‘no, I’ll do that for you,’” said Yuan, reached by Zoom at the San Jose, California-area home that is now his office for the foreseeable future. “I did it manually myself.”
As the Covid-19 virus sweeps across the planet, leading to quarantined cities and shut-down schools, Zoom has emerged as one of the leading tools to keep businesses up and running and students learning. On Wednesday, the most recent day for which data is available, 343,000 people globally downloaded the Zoom app, 60,000 in the U.S. alone, according to mobile intelligence firm Apptopia — compared to 90,000 people worldwide and 27,000 in the U.S. just two months ago. (Zoom doesn't share such numbers and wouldn't comment on a third party report.) And overnight, having already removed the time limit from video chats using Zoom's free service for affected regions in China and elsewhere, Yuan took another measure to help mitigate the impact of the coronavirus: he decided to remove the limit for any K-12 schools affected in Japan, Italy and the United States.
Students or teachers who fill out an online form using their school email addresses and are then verified by Zoom will have any accounts associated with that school’s domain also gain unlimited temporary meeting minutes, according to a site set up for the process overnight. The free Basic accounts are also available by request in Austria, Denmark, France, Ireland, Poland, Romania and South Korea, a spokesperson for Zoom said. "Given that many K-12 schools are starting closing, we decided to offer Zoom access to all K-12 schools in the country starting tomorrow," Yuan wrote in an email overnight.
Such generosity is nothing new for Yuan, who was known to hook up nonprofits and other institutions in need with prized free access to Zoom’s online video communications since he cofounded the business in 2011. But now his leadership is taking on global importance as Zoom has become one of the most in-demand software tools for the work-from-home economy.
Zoom is far from the only tool standing to benefit from this trend. Analysts point to others like file-sharing service Dropbox, e-signatures business DocuSign and emergency communications business Everbridge as obvious fellow cloud companies that will likely see a boost in usage as the world moves even more online. But few are as richly valued as Zoom, whose shares are up 77% since it went public in April 2019, making Yuan a billionaire. Last Wednesday, the company reported an earnings beat and year-to-year revenue growth of 78%, GAAP operating margins of 5.6% and non-GAAP earnings per share nearly double analyst consensus — and still saw shares dip, though they remained up 24% for the past month as of Thursday’s market close, versus a 27% drop for the S&P 500.
Zoom isn’t just a focus for Wall Street, either. On Twitter, it’s become a viral theme. “Just got an email from a prof: ‘As a reminder, you are required to wear clothes during Zoom meetings.’ Rules are made when they become necessary, not before,” one Twitter user quipped to more than 84,000 likes. “I’m seeing a lot of funny tweets now, so this is something new,” says Yuan, who retweeted that one, but not the viral tweet from Box CEO Aaron Levie, or the viral joke about presidential debates happening over Zoom.
With the increased demand has come another question: can Zoom possibly keep up? “Is your platform prepared for practically every college class in America to be using it? Simultaneously? Asking for a whole lot of friends,” tweeted academic Dr. Adrienne Keene.
Yuan, the entrepreneur who knows that answer best, is unperturbed. He’s already working on new features for Zoom focused on a work-from-home lifestyle, from better face lighting to a lecture tool for professors, while he continues to roll out Zoom free to affected schools. Above all, he argues it’s actually a pretty great time to work at Zoom. “I feel like overnight, this is one of the catalysts where in every country, everybody’s realized they needed to have a tool like Zoom to connect their people,” Yuan says. “I think from that perspective, we feel very proud. We’ve seen that what we are doing here, we can contribute a bit to the world.”
Since Zoom went to a work-from-home policy nine days ago, Yuan has been learning how it holds up as a full-time remote tool firsthand. So far, he’s pretty happy – if a bit worn down by the volume. “On the one hand, we like working from home; we’re using our own services,” says Yuan. “On the other hand, somehow, I do not know why – maybe because of the recent demand, maybe the working at home – we just have more meetings working at home than in the office.”
Yuan says Zoom first started to brace itself for huge changes when the Covid-19 virus disrupted business in China starting in January. At that time, customers like Walmart and Dell started to reach out with concerns, Yuan says, wondering if their local employees would be able to move full-time to communications through Zoom. In the run-up to going public, Zoom had trained staff on responses to natural disasters, though the company didn’t anticipate such a disaster would come through a pandemic. Zoom’s servers – distributed across 17 data centers globally, which Zoom operates itself – have so far been able to handle the increased volume of videoconferences and calls.
In those data centers, Zoom operates a cloud architecture using auto scaling, a method that monitors usage of applications and makes it easier to add more computing power when demand increases, then ratchet it back down to save costs when demand drops. Zoom’s data centers were set up to handle surges of traffic of 10x the normal, or 100x, says Yuan. “The beautiful part of the cloud is, you know, it’s unlimited capacity in theory,” he says. And by employing engineering teams across the globe, including in China and Malaysia, Zoom has technical talent able to remotely monitor its systems around the clock. Yuan says any mental images of Zoom technical staff forgoing sleep to keep your weekly team meeting running are unbacked by reality. “Working the whole night is not scalable,” he says.
Zoom is already working on new features from user feedback from the work-at-home surge. One would be a tool, inspired in part by consumer apps like Instagram and Snapchat, that would provide a filter that frames a user’s face in better lighting, or with blemishes tuned out. “We want to have a touch up to your appearance just from one feature,” says Yuan.
Another feature that has moved up on the product pipeline came from feedback from a professor using Zoom to host lectures for his class. The new lecture-focused feature would make it so that every student’s video was appearing as though shot from the same angle, allowing the teacher to see how students are reacting – and who is paying attention – like they were physically in class.
Yuan doesn’t agree with the skepticism of reporters like The Intercept’s Sam Biddle, who recently warned that Zoom’s software offers “attention tracking” that marks attendees who haven’t had Zoom open or top of their screen for more than 30 seconds. Is a future of Zoom calls from home more invasive than office life? To Zoom’s creator, there’s a key distinction between an online meeting you take on the fly – perhaps while grabbing a coffee, or in transit – versus a work-from-home environment. There, he’s betting staff will want to see each other. “I can feel very lonely now,” he says.
How much Zoom stands to profit from calamity is another sensitive subject. Originally from Shandong Province in eastern China, Yuan doesn’t have family left in China who are affected by the virus, but he says he’s concerned just like any parent still dropping their kids off at school. Yuan says the decision to make free Zoom use unlimited in affected regions – first China, and now Italy and in K-12 schools – was unanimous among his direct reports. “I told the team that with any crisis like this, let’s not leverage the opportunity for marketing or sales. Let’s focus on our customers,” he says. “If you leverage this opportunity for money, I think that’s a horrible culture.”
Culture is important to Yuan, who built Zoom after running engineering for Cisco’s competitive product, Webex. (For more on Zoom’s rise, see Forbes’ feature story from last year: Zoom, Zoom, Zoom!) That’s left analysts optimistic, but uncertain, how much Zoom’s business will benefit from its current surge, as much of the new use is believed to be among free users who may or may not convert to paying customers over time. “Zoom is being a good corporate citizen,” says Sterling Auty, an analyst at JPMorgan Equity Research. “They are not looking to take unfair advantage. They are looking to help and we think that goodwill carries a long way.”
submitted by adotmatrix to China_Flu [link] [comments]

An Overview of Arizona Primary Races - Part 1: Statewide and Congressional Races

(Reposting to take it off of VB)
Welcome back to my omnibus compendium of Arizona’s upcoming primary races in the style of my 2018 summaries (that’s just LDs 21-30, links for 1-20, Congressional, and statewide races are in that post). The primary is set to take place August 4th – early voting ballots should be mailed out on or around July 6th.
Arizona’s a really interesting state (I may be a hair biased), since it not only is home to 2-3 swing House seats and a high-profile Senate race, but also tenuous majorities in both state houses that could – theoretically – neuter Ducey’s trifecta this fall. And counties have their races this year as well, and I’ll highlight some of the fireworks ongoing in Maricopa.
If you’re interested about which district you live in, check https://azredistricting.org/districtlocato. If you want to get involved with your local Democratic party, find your legislative district on the previous link (NOT CD), and then search for your LD’s name at this link. Feel free to attend meetings, they’re a great way to get involved with candidates and like-minded individuals. If you wish to donate to a “clean elections” candidate (mentioned in the post as “clean”), you will have to live in that candidate’s legislative district to give qualifying $5 contributions (check here if anyone needs it in your area), but they are allowed to accept a limited amount of “seed money” from people outside of the district. The three CorpComm candidates can take $5’s statewide.
If you do not want to vote at the polls, you will need to request an early ballot using the website of your county’s recorder prior to July 4th. Example links for Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal. Others available if needed.
Race ratings for listed primaries will be listed as Solid/Likely/Leans/Tossup and are not indicative of my own preference for that seat. I’ll denote my personal primary preferences at the end of this series, as well as the best Republican ticket for the Dems if someone here really really wants to pull a GOP ballot in the primary. I do not advise it, but since I can't stop ya, you'll get my best suggestions.
Write-in candidates have yet to file, which could give us an outside chance at getting some Libertarians on the ballot (the Greens have lost their ballot access).
If you have any questions about voting in the primary, which races are the most contested, and how to get involved with other Democrats in Arizona, feel free to PM me.
All fundraising numbers here are as of 12/31/2019 – although Q1 numbers are dropping within a week or so. I’ll probably post a quick update after signature challenges are done and all Q1 numbers are in the books. Candidates who are partially self-funding have how much they’ve given to themselves listed after their COH as an indicator of how much of their own cash they’re pouring into the race. Not all of it, obviously, is still on hand.
ALL OPINIONS ARE MY OWN SOLELY IN MY CAPACITY AS A VOTER IN ARIZONA, AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF ANY ORGANIZATIONS I WORK/ED FOR OR AM/WAS A MEMBER OF. THIS POST IS IN NO WAY ENDORSED BY THE ARIZONA DEMOCRATIC PARTY OR ANY SUB-ORGANIZATION THEREOF, OR ANY FILED CANDIDATE.
Statewides
Without further ado, the statewide races! Or more precisely, race. (US Senate is counted as a congressional)
Corporations Commission
I know this is what each and every one of you has been waiting for, the Corporations Commission! (hereafter CorpComm)
Yes, just like Arizona is the only state in the country with an elected mine inspector, it is also only one of 14 which has an elected Public Utilities commission. The AZ Constitution explicitly calls for this because, to quote Wikipedia: “its drafters feared that governors would appoint industry-friendly officials”.
Unfortunately, that is not the case. Even though the commission is elected, lax-er campaign finance laws permit for public utilities to spend massive amounts of money on pro-utility candidates. The commission then raises utility rates, which means more money going to the utilities, and more money to spend on pro-utility candidates. And so on and so forth. The former chair, Susan Bitter-Smith, was removed due to a corruption complaint in 2017.
Therefore, corruption by the utilities is a big issue in this race, as well as how much to focus on renewable energy policies. An interesting side-effect is that far more candidates for CorpComm are signing up for public funding, which locks them into some pretty strict rules (thanks to the GOP legislature and voters in 2018).
The commission is a five member board, staggered so that three seats are up in presidential years, and two are up in midterm elections. Because of this, incumbents Sandra Kennedy (D) and Justin Olson (R) are safe until 2022.
Moderate Republican Bob Burns did not file run for re-election (he was kinda pro-solar and viciously anti-corruption, I’ll miss the guy), while definitely-not-moderate Andy Tobin was tapped by Ducey to lead the Department of Administration (HR, procurement, accounting, etc. for state agencies and replaced by 2018 AZ-02 GOP nominee Lea Marquez Peterson ($7K COH, clean – hereafter LMP). Boyd Dunn ($39.5K COH) is the one Republican elected in 2016 who is trying to return for another term.
LMP’s decision to run clean – instead of “traditional” (not taking public funds) – is quite odd for established GOP candidates. This could be a sign of changing voter attitudes, pointing to corruption being a larger and larger issue for both GOP and Dem. voters.
There are three Dems running for the three seats. Former commissioner and 2016 and 2018 CorpComm nominee Bill Mundell ($10.6K COH, clean), teacher and education activist Shea Stanfield ($4.7K COH, clean), and Tolleson Mayor Anna Tovar ($1.8K COH, clean). All 3 progress automatically to the general election. Tovar in particular is a big get for Dems – she was a former Senate Minority Leader and it’s a great sign that she’s back in the fight and wanting to run statewides
I’d be remiss if I didn’t quickly touch on my dislike of Mundell – the 2018 CorpComm primary was very contentious due to Mundell persuading his runningmate Sandra Kennedy (and not the other way around, as I had wrongly assumed back then) to going very negative against the other Democrat in the race, Kiana Sears. Mundell lost that primary to Sears and Kennedy (2 seats were up then), but his attack campaign was strong enough that Kennedy and Sears were driven from being pleasant acquaintances (both being liberal black women in utility-related politics) to not being on speaking terms. Sears lost that race – it’s anyone’s guess how much of that was due to the ugly primary. The uncontested nature here should help Dems somewhat from cannibalizing one of their own.
On the Republican challenger’s side there are quite a few candidates. Outside of Dunn and LMP, former legislator David Farnsworth ($6.7K COH) is the chief candidate, and seems set to come into this race with a decent amount of legislative connections and backing. But Kim Owens ($2.5K COH) has stronger experience claims – having spent 3 terms on the Salt River Project Council (basically a mini CorpComm), as well as 5 terms on a school board. The SRP connections come at a cost though, as they don’t play well in this political climate. And despite being endorsed by Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-AZ, CD8), Owens has been taking some flack from further-right organizations for her past work on the George Bush and John Kasich presidential campaigns.
Other candidates in the Republican race include 2018 failed candidate Eric Sloan - who is making a visible outreach to the Trumpier side of the party and is running in opposition to clean energy mandates ($3.5K COH, clean) and Nick Myers ($1.7K, clean), who ran for HD12 in 2018 on a platform of banning all public schools. It’s again noteworthy that Sloan and Myers – who both eschewed clean funding in 2018 (and as far I can remember one of the two had strong negative words about the program) – are now running clean. Neither is favored in the primary but Sloan could theoretically muscle himself into 3rd place with enough pro-Trump rhetoric.
The general will probably see both groups of candidates more or less match the generic ballot statewide, but the campaign finance rules in Arizona could play an interesting role. Democrats will naturally be at a disadvantage due to locking themselves into rather restrictive campaign finance rules (can’t raise over a certain amount, banned from using specific party resources, etc.) - but so will LMP or Sloan/Myers if they win. And while the Democrats will all be operating alone, LMP (or the two oddballs) wont be able to do the same things GOP candidates running traditional can do – both from a stance of political pragmatism and of legality. That could lead to some disjointedness that the GOP definitely doesn’t want.
The two sides are evenly matched in terms of candidate quality – LMP and Tovar, Dunn and Mundell, and Stanfield and Farnsworth are all roughly comparable – but this may tilt slightly in the Dems’ favor if one of the other GOP candidates makes it on.
hunter15991 Rating: Dems. unopposed. Solid Dunn, Likely LMP, Leans Farnsworth. Leans GOP general.
Congressional Races
Ok, you've had your veggies. Time for the fun stuff.
Congressional District 1
CD1 is one of 2-3 districts that the national parties are probably focusing in on for this cycle (R+2, Trump+1, Sinema+4). On the Democratic side, Representative Tom O’Halleran ($918.8K COH) is running for re-election. Originally a Republican legislator, O’Halleran slowly veered left as the state party veered rightwards, and is now on the liberal end of the Blue Dog Democrats.
O’Halleran faces a tougher primary than he’s used to (not a high bar to clear, though) in the form of Flagstaff City Councilwoman Eva Putzova ($15.2K), running strongly to O’Halleran’s left. Putzova’s campaign got off to a bit of a rocky start, and while she’s found her footing she still significantly lags behind O’Halleran in COH and in name recognition outside of Flagstaff. While Flagstaff is the largest and most liberal city in the district, it’s still <10% of the total population of this very rural district. Putzova will be able to close the margins O’Halleran set against a similar further-left candidate in 2016, but O’Halleran’s strong connections with the indigenous communities that make up 25% of the district’s population (and therefore close to 50% of the Dem. voting base there) should put him over the line in August. A 3rd big name Dem., former State Senator Barb McGuire, has filed to run for her old Senate seat in SD8 instead and dropped out from the AZ-01 race.
On the Republican side it’s an absolute recruiting nightmare, even worse so than in 2018 when outsider perennial candidate Wendy Rogers beat out theocratic legislative superstar Steve Smith. The current frontrunner for this race is Tiffany Shedd ($112.3K COH), a farmer and shotgun coach who took a distant last place in the GOP primary here in 2018. I’ve linked not to her website but to her announcement video, where she gives the lamest voice-over possible, throws out countless trite references to how horrible it is that “a 29 year-old girl from New York is telling us what to do at the border” (whoever could that possibly be?), and insinuates (but never says) that she once shot at a band of men approaching her farm. It’s worth watching.
I should add at this point that while her video goes on and on with immigrant race-baiting and references to “the wall”, no part of AZ-01 is even in the same county as the US-Mexico border. These are tactics 2018 nominee Wendy Rogers (more on her in the legislative section) loved to use, and she lost to O’Halleran.
Shedd snagged the endorsements of people like Kevin McCarthy and Jon Kyl rather early on, dissuading former baseball star Curt Schilling from running and consolidating the active field of candidates around her (which is good, because one guy who bailed on the race – Safford Vice Mayor and former Army paratrooper Chris Taylor - could have been quite dangerous, especially with his Spanish fluency). Shedd is the only Arizonan in the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program, listed as “On The Radar” (their lowest tier). The two other Republicans who have qualified for the ballot (pending signatures) are businessman Noel Reidhead ($35.4K COH) and Apache County Supervisor Doyel Shamley (no reports yet filed). Reidhead seems to be a hair more charismatic and professional than Shedd, but stands little chance building anti-establishment cred vs. Shedd, especially taking into account whatever infrastructure she has from her 2018 run. Shamley too could theoretically pose Shedd trouble with his past political experience as a Republican in a very Democratic county (although it’s very polarized, and he lives in the blood-red Mormon area), but he is also quite a conspiracy theorist (all 4 links are worth a read). Shamley also has only ~10.3% buffer on his petition signatures (it’s recommended to aim for at least 25% if not far more) and could be knocked off the ballot by a stiff breeze.
In the general it’s looking like it’ll be O’Halleran vs. Shedd, and without significant GOP backup from IE’s and downballot races it looks like Tom may blow the barn, er, shed doors off this next push by the GOP to oust him. This could shift towards Leans if Shedd posts a good quarter or two of fundraising and ups her digital game.
hunter15991 Rating: Likely O’Halleran, Likely Shedd. Likely O’Halleran general.
Congressional District 2
Moving right along to another GOP mess, CD2. Incumbent Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick ($621.1K COH) was admitted into an alcohol rehab program last fall, which sparked some thoughts that this district may end up being close. Republican candidates however have yet to create any sort of spark in this seat this year (well, outside of one vaguely threatening to shoot Kirkpatrick – upstanding citizen whom we’ll get to in a second).
Kirkpatrick is being primaried by former State Department official Peter Quilter (no reports yet filed). His issues page puts him as roughly rank-and-file with the rest of the party, so I’m a bit curious as to why he filed to run against an ideologically similar incumbent – but that’s his prerogative. Quilter started signature collection rather later and is also in danger of getting bounced off if someone challenges them.
On the GOP side it’s another AZ-01. I’m not even entirely sure who the frontrunner is, it’s that chaotic and stupid. Is it Shay Stautz ($65.6K COH), a rather mild-mannered former university administrator and national security expert, but whose $65.6K warchest includes $60K of his own money and who sits awfully close to falling below the signature line? Is it Brandon Martin ($9.2K), 2018 2nd place finisher and Army vet who seems to lead in the endorsement and signature game, but who has an atrocious burn rate and who has a tendency of insinuating people should shoot the Congresswoman currently representing the seat once held by Gabby Giffords? Is it Joseph Morgan ($4.6K COH), who has a respectable enough background as a newspaper columnist and nonprofit assistant and whom Martin considers his chief rival (judging by his press release claiming Morgan “flip flops on sanctuary cities), but who hasn’t tweeted since October and whose fundraising is abysmal? ($22.2K raised despite filing in February) I guess it isn’t Noran Eric Ruden (no reports filed), who filed late, has little online presence, and in general seems to be doing little campaigning – but with how bizarre the other candidates are Ruden could surprise me.
Whoever Kirkpatrick faces in the general is again going to be limping badly without outside GOP support. And this time the turf isn’t a Trump+1 rural district that’s slowly inching left, it’s a Clinton+5 seat situated in the suburbs of Arizona’s 2nd largest (and decidedly liberal) city. For competent state legislators this’d be a rather tall ask, for the motely crew the GOP have assembled above it’s almost a suicide mission.
The alcohol rehab issue with Kirkpatrick and potential fallout stemming from that is the only reason I don’t currently have this at Solid D. I realize the national and state party will get behind one candidate at some point but I don’t know how they could feasibly pull off this one given they triaged a significantly stronger candidate in 2018 – against a non-incumbent Kirkpatrick – who then lost to Ann by 10 points.
hunter15991 Rating: Solid Kirkpatrick, Tossup GOP (Statuz/Morgan/Martin). Likely Kirkpatrick general.
Congressional District 3
Bit of a snoozefest here (thankfully for me since it’s then shorter to write). Incumbent Raul Grijalva ($211.2K) is running for another term, although he may retire after this next term which would set off a lot of drama in the district. He has no primary opposition and faces OIF Marine and current “Executive Protection Agent” (looks like a cross between a security consultant and bodyguard) Daniel Wood (no reports filed). Running in a D+13, Clinton+29 minority-majority district when your issues page consists solely of the words “Immigration - Coming Soon” is a bold plan. It’s also an insanely foolhardy one.
hunter15991 Rating: Uncontested primaries. Solid Grijalva general.
Congressional District 4
For every yin there is a yang, and in CD3’s case it’s its neighbor to the north, CD4. The current incumbent is far-right Congressman Paul Gosar ($222.6K), whose greatest hits need no introduction. I sat in on a conservative club’s meeting on campus and heard that, in his words, a “Justice Democrats Deep State Plant” was going to primary him soon, and to not fall for what she was spreading.
Well, sure as anything, he did get a primary challenger mere hours after that meeting ended, former McSally staffer Anne Marie Ward ($13.3K COH – no relation). Ward’s website points to her wanting to tack slightly closer to the center than Gosar (again, low bar to clear), in an effort to attract the youth back to conservatism. Her issues pages seems to possibly be purposefully vague. While I’d love for Gosar to be replaced someone less likely to fly to the UK to meet neo-Nazis or author resolutions thanking Hungarian autocrats for their leadership, Ward doesn’t look like she’s going anywhere in a hurry 6 months after she announced.
The Democratic side also poses no threat to Gosar. The nominal frontrunner is nurse Delina DiSanto ($13.3K COH), who lost to Dr. David Brill last year and was, coincidentally, the GOP nominee in CO-03 back in 2004. DiSanto’s political metamorphosis doesn’t end there, back in 2018 she hammered Brill for not supporting M4A enough, but her issues page this year seems very dialed down. DiSanto is being challenged by perennial candidate Stu Starky (no reports yet filed – though they should have since he declared in June). Starky is most noticeable for his Hail Mary Senate run against John McCain in 2004 (McCain won by 56 points), as well as multiple House runs in the late 90’s and apparently considered filing for President once. When he filed I saw his social media had a lot of pro-Green Party stuff in the past, but oddly enough his issues page now has a strong focus on deficit reduction of all things, and advocates for a public healthcare option.
Regardless, none of the 3 other candidates in the race can stop Gosar at this point, and I highly doubt any will ever be able to.
hunter15991 Rating: Solid Gosar, Likely DiSanto. Solid Gosar general.
Congressional District 5
To quote my 2018 writeup: “I promise the fun stuff comes back soon enough. CD5 is something like CD4, except instead of a rural stretch of mountains filled with rednecks, it’s picturesque rows of suburban mansions filled with Mormons. Freedom Caucus nut and former President of the AZ Senate Andy Biggs ($481.8K COH) is the incumbent, having won the seat in a contentious primary in 2016.”
Yeah, not much has changed here. We’ll see what redistricting brings.
The three Dems vying for the seat are businesswoman/animal rights activist and 2018 nominee Joan Greene ($4.2K COH), teacher Jonathan Ireland (no reports filed) running on a standard Bernie-style platform, and attorney Javier Ramos (refusing to take donations, no filings), who’s running a very weird race and seems to be actively avoiding harping on his legal career.
I was impressed when Greene cracked 40% in 2018. There is no way any of these 3 could crack 50% in this district. Biggs’s only threat is in a primary, which he has escaped.
hunter15991 Rating: Biggs uncontested, Likely Greene. Solid Biggs general.
Congressional District 6
Told y’all the fun stuff was coming.
On paper, CD6 isn’t the most flippy of districts. Incumbent GOP Representative David Schweikert ($278.5K) has held the Democrat running below 40% for three straight elections after taking it from former Tempe mayor Harry Mitchell in the 2010 wave election. The candidate endorsements by azCentral for the 2016 Democratic primary bemoaned the lack of strong candidates, calling the eventual nominee “less unqualified for the job”.
But he had his margin cut to just 10 points in 2018 – a sign of swinging suburbs like Scottsdale – and this seat is one of the early few on the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” list this year.
On the Dems. side, 2018 nominee Anita Malik ($46.2K COH), trying to improve on her 10 point loss in 2018. Malik, in my mind, is not the frontrunner in this primary, although I didn’t think she was last year and got stung. Dr. Hiral Vyas Tipirneni ($911.9K COH) is running for CD6 this time round, after two close elections (1 special, 1 general) in neighboring CD8. Hiral has been ribbed somewhat for this district hop, but I buy her justification – her work and community connections are all in CD6, and despite being registered in CD8 her house is so close to the boundary line that I think a small portion of her backyard is in CD6. Joining Malik and Tipirineni are businesswoman and 2x legislative candidate in the 2000’s Stephanie Rimmer ($67.5K COH, $114.5K self-funded), and businessman/former McCain legislative staffer Karl Gentles ($80.3K COH).
Malik and Tipirneni were great friends during the 2018 election, but they’ve rather soured now that they’re running against each other. While Gentles and Rimmer have strong ability for growth, I believe the race will come down to Malik and Tipirneni, and I think Tipirneni ends up taking the win in that regard. Malik enters the race with decent name rec. and has a decent bloc of progressive supporters and volunteers, but Hiral has a massive fundraising advantage (Malik anecdotally hates calling for donations) – far greater than Dr. Heather Ross’s in 2018 when she lost to Malik. Tipirneni is also quite beloved by the AZ Republic (judging by their glowing endorsement of her in the fall of 2018) – this is bad news for Malik because the Republic’s endorsement of her was seen as what pushed her across the line in the 2018 primary (Ross led narrowly in absentees, and Election Day ballots – the only ones post-endorsement – broke to Malik).
In the general, Hiral has all the ingredients going for her. Schweikert is running under the shadow of a House Ethics investigation, is doing atrociously in fundraising, and would be going up against a well-known campaigning and fundraising machine in the form of Tipirneni. Hiral’s drive can be seen by the fact that her first campaign office was opened in last November, a full 51 weeks before the election (typically they’ve opened around here in the spring or early summer). Downballot Dems. in the area are improving sizably in terms of fundraising, and enthusiasm is high. The seat is R+10, but McSally only one it by 3 in 2018, and that’s far too close for comfort if I’m David Schweikert. A private internal (I plied it out of a GOP friend of mine who works in his legislative office) shows Schweikert up by ~7-8, which when adjusting for the fact internals always slant in the commissioning campaign’s favor points to quite the close race. I can definitely see this race entering tossup category, especially if Tipirneni is the nominee.
I’ll close with another anecdote about just how scared Schweikert is of Hiral from the same staffer friend – news broke to Schweikert of Hiral’s announcement back last spring during a staff meeting in his office. Schweikert, on hearing the news she had filed, turned even more pale than he normally is and left the room in a fluster. My friend said he could hear him yelling after he left.
I hope he does the exact same on November 3rd.
hunter15991 Rating: Leans Tipirneni, Schweikert uncontested. Leans Schweikert general.
Congressional District 7
The next two aren’t going to be all that interesting, so due to time constraints I’ll be a hair shallow on them. Incumbent Congressman Ruben Gallego ($859.3K COH) is uncontested on the Democratic side, and faces token GOP opposition in this deep blue district from businessman Josh Barnett ($634.64 COH) and community activist Nina Becker (no reports filed). Neither is particularly far above the signature minimum and if/when Gallego feels cheeky, both could be sued off the ballot.
hunter15991 Rating: Gallego uncontested, Likely Barnett. Solid Gallego general.
Congressional District 8
Once the site of a heated race between Tiprineni and Debbie Lesko ($379.2K COH), the district is on no one’s radar this time around. Lesko faces no GOP opposition in the primary, and the 3 Democratic candidates in the general – former HD22 candidate and businessman Michael Muscato ($14.4K COH), Army veteran Bob Olson ($39K COH, self-funding $50K), and former Litchfield Park City Councilman and City Manager Bob Musselwhite ($844 COH). Olson and Musselwhite ran in past years, with no real success. Musselwhite could theoretically have made a decent enough bid at the nomination either now or in past years, but doesn’t really seem to like campaigning and until recently shied away from his political experience in-district – a bizarre thing to do to say the least.
CD8 has a few intriguing candidates on its Dem. bench – most notably State Superintendent Kathy Hoffman – but for the time being it’s Lesko’s fiefdom to lose. I probably guess the Dem. nomination goes to Muscato, as he’s the only one of the 3 Dems really campaigning.
hunter15991 Rating: Leans Muscato, Lesko uncontested, Solid Lesko general.
Congressional District 9
Home stretch everyone! 1 more district before we fawn over Mark Kelly.
Greg Stanton ($615.8K COH) is the incumbent Democrat in the district. A former Mayor of Phoenix, Stanton was initially considering what is now Sinema’s Senate seat (the two aren’t on the best of terms) before national Democrats persuaded him to instead contest the Congressional seat Sinema had vacated. Stanton easily defeated radiologist Steve “Welfare recipients are like starving pets” Ferrara in 2018, and mostly dissuaded the GOP from fielding a serious candidate this year.
Stanton is facing a primary from the left from “science activist” and quasi-perennial candidate Talia Fuentes-Wolfe (no reports filed). Fuentes ran against Stanton in 2018 (after being the Dem. nominee in CD5 in 2016), but was removed from the ballot over signature validity issues – per friends of mine on the Stanton campaign, massive amounts looked like they were written in the exact same handwriting.
Stanton could be vulnerable to a legitimate challenge from the left (someone like State Rep. Athena Salman or State Sen. Juan Mendez), but Fuentes poses no significant opposition. If she is not removed again for signature validity issues or legal issues with her campaign finance reports that the Stanton campaign offered to ignore in 2018 (that would have led to criminal penalties for Fuentes and her treasurer), she doesn’t have much of a base of support in the district (hell, her website hasn’t been updated since 2018). Talia’s been prone to what I will diplomatically call “eccentric outbursts” at local activists and volunteers (some as young as college sophomores) and hasn’t made many friends in the area. I will leave specific interactions out of this post to avoid dunking on her too much, but feel free to PM me for details.
On the Republican side, 2016 nominee and 2018 candidate Dave Giles ($336 COH) is sticking his head into the meatgrinder again. Giles lost by 20 to Sinema in 2016 and by 27 to Ferrara in the 2018 primary – normally I wouldn’t see him going anywhere again this year. But he has a chance to out-Trump the other two candidates. Pharmacist Nicholas Tutora (no reports filed) is a good equivalent to Ferrara in 2018 – conservative, but not spamming pics of him with Trump everywhere like Giles. He’d be a strong candidate in the primary if he posts a couple good quarters of fundraising, but given that he never filed his Q4 report I doubt things are looking all that rosy for him. Meanwhile, Dr. Sam Huang (no reports filed) is a current Chandler City Councilman also angling to become the CD9 GOP nominee. Huang has by far the best background of the 3 (the only one with political experience) and has both a geographic (Chandler) and demographic (Taiwanese-Americans) base of support, and is probably the most moderate of the 3.
However, both of those advantages are significantly neutered by the layout of CD9. Most of Chandler is in CD5, and the CD9 portion is generally more liberal than the CD5. And while having strong support among the Taiwanese community is a strong plus, it’ll probably be more than cancelled out by the unfortunate racial stigma Asian-Americans are facing during the COVID19 crisis. I would not put it past Giles to racebait about Huang, and I think the GOP primary base here may lap that up.
In the general Stanton could have been slightly spooked by a well-funded Huang campaign, but I just don’t see Huang making it. And even so, the district is simply galloping to the left at too fast of a pace for the GOP to keep up – the one or two candidates who could plausibly do it (Tempe Councilwoman Robin Arredondo-Savage, State Sen. Kate Brophy McGee) are off doing their own thing. Arredondo-Savage could pose a threat in 2022 if she decides to run in a redrawn district, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.
hunter15991 Rating: Solid Stanton, Tossup GOP (Huang/Giles). Solid Stanton general.
US Senate
Thanks for staying with me through this post. Here’s what you’ve all been waiting for.
Martha McSally ($7.66M COH) is the incumbent Senator, having been appointed by Governor Doug Ducey (R) after Sen. Jon Kyl left the seat in the winter of 2018 (who himself had been appointed when Sen. John McCain passed in September 2018). McSally, as you all know, lost the 2018 Senate election to Kyrsten Sinema, and it raised some eyebrows when Ducey appointed her to this spot. The rumor – which has some validity to it – was that Ducey purposefully selected a weak McSally to fill the seat so that she’d lose in 2020, so that he himself could run for it unimpeded in 2022. Ducey was on track to appoint himself when Kyl was going to leave, but due to a come-from-behind win by State Sen. Katie Hobbs (D) in the Secretary of State race (who’d become Governor if Ducey vacated the seat) his plans were dashed.
McSally is despised by the Kelli Ward bloc of the party, and there was a big hubbub when businessman Daniel McCarthy ($34.9K COH, self-funding $149.6K) filed to run against her last fall. While he has the made the ballot – no small feat – he has yet to really turn on the self-funding spigot. Maybe this will change in the coming months, but for the time being it doesn’t really look like he’s ready to go full bore against McSally. She’s currently on track to easily win the primary, although it’ll be interesting to see – if McCarthy never does go all-in – just how many votes his skeleton candidacy will still win. I’d bet at least 1/3rd of the GOP primary base, to be honest.
McSally’s fundraising has been very impressive, leading all competitive GOP Senators nationally and raising the 6th most among all Senate candidates this year. It is therefore a delicious twist of fate that her sole Democratic opponent – astronaut and gun control advocate Mark Kelly ($13.61M COH) has raised the most among any Senate candidate – challenger or incumbent – this cycle. Yes, that’s more money raised and COH than Mitch McConnell or John Cornyn, who have had since 2015 to fundraise. It’s more COH than McSally and Sen. Thom Tillis (R, NC) COMBINED.
It’s a lot.
Kelly also holds strong support among Democratic base by virtue of his past work with Giffords PAC and his marriage to former Rep. Gabby Giffords (who was shot in the head during a 2011 assassination attempt) – beloved by even some Republicans.
McSally has been polling 7-8 points behind Kelly on the RCP average and has been trending ever so slightly downwards since the start of the campaign. The GOP could very well retain this seat in the fall, but polling, fundraising, the national climate, and a non-empty GOP primary are all big thorns in McSally’s side, as well as a fractured base of support (exacerbated by the fact that Kelli Ward is now AZ-GOP chair).
Personally I think Ducey knew exactly what he was doing when he appointed McSally. She’s no longer a rising-star fighter pilot – one of her engines is on fire, she’s taking flak from friendly forces on the ground, and she’s coming in for one hell of a crash landing.
AZ Dems attitude about this race is a simple one. To quote a favorite line of Gabby and Mark’s:
“Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.”
hunter15991 Rating: Likely McSally, Kelly uncontested. Leans Kelly general.
Hope you’ve enjoyed this read! I’m going to try to knock out Maricopa County candidates today (and possibly other large counties like Pima) and get to the legislative ones this weekend. Any update due to signature challenges or fundraising reports dropping should come closer to the end of the month.
I’ll be splitting up my “endorsements” (both Dem. and “best-case R”) on each page and then again all at once at the end of this series. They’ll be listed in the comments, for posterity.
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