Betting on Baseball Run Lines - Legit Tips and Strategies

Attempt to Prove the MLB Run Line Betting System Theory

Attempt to Prove the MLB Run Line Betting System Theory

Link for reference
Hypothesis #1: One can maintain a profitable betting system by betting the -1.5 Run Line for the Favorite and the -1.5 Adjusted Run Line for the Underdog in any given game.
Hypothesis #2: If not all games are profitable given the above system, then one should be able to at least identify those games which are more likely to turn a profit, and maintain a profitable betting system by only betting on games which fit that criteria.
Summary
Betting a combination of the -1.5 Run Lines for the Favorites and Underdogs is not profitable in the long term for any MLB games.
Approach
Normally, in order to prove or disprove a betting system theory like this, one has to gather, process, and analyze years worth of data – odds and results for thousands of games. This can be a difficult endeavor for several reasons.
Luckily, in the case of Major League Baseball, there is a much more convenient option.
Ever notice that sometimes the most dangerous offense in the league can be going up against a 4.55 ERA journeyman and get shut out? And every once in a while Clayton Kershaw will get knocked around for 5 innings before leaving early with 6 earned runs? We all know that scoring in baseball, possibly more than any other sport, is subject to a huge number of variables…and random luck.
It has been shown by baseball sabermetricians that the distribution of runs scored in baseball can be very closely approximated by a Negative Binomial Distribution (NBD), which is a well-known mathematical function used to model special types of discrete distributions. NBD has to be modified a bit to comply with baseball, but once the proper adjustments are made, it’s nearly a perfect fit. Prior to encountering this MLB Run Line Betting System Theory, I had built a model that incorporated this concept, and I’ve retrofitted that logic for our purposes here.
The following graph is an example of the Probability Mass Function (PMF) as defined by NBD for a Home Team having an average expectation of 10 runs scored vs. an Away Team having an average expectation of 2.5 runs scored.
IMAGE #1
Number of runs scored is along the X axis, and % Probability of the team scoring that many runs is along the Y axis. If these 2 teams were to play each other – let’s say – 10,000 times under the exact same conditions (same lineup, starting pitcher, days rest, home ball park, etc.), the Home Team’s longer curve shows that they would be expected to score a higher number of runs more often than the Away Team. Meanwhile, the Away Team’s curve has a higher peak, but a shorter distance, meaning that they’ll be expected to score a smaller number of runs most of the time. On any given day, the Away Team might outscore the Home Team, but over the long term, all of the individual scores will add up to the curve you see here, and the Home Team will score a higher number of runs more often than not.
Ten runs to 2.5 runs is obviously an extreme example to illustrate the differences between high- and low-scoring teams. Let’s take a look at a more realistic example – Home Team with an average expectation of 5 runs vs. Away Team with an average expectation of 4 runs.
IMAGE #2
Okay, what the hell does this have to do with proving or disproving this theory? Well, using the same Probability Mass Function used to generate these sample graphs, I can model the probable scoring outcome of any given game. All I need is the expected runs scored for Team A and Team B.
Now you might be thinking, well that’s perfect because most books provide the Team Total O/U numbers per team. Yes, but unfortunately, I don’t believe those are very usable for this purpose. There seems to be a few layers of rounding and line shading going on, so the Team Totals aren’t very reliable. Here is what I did instead:
  1. Use Team A and Team B’s Moneyline odds to calculate the implied win probability for each team.
    IMPORTANT: Don’t forget to calculate and remove the vigorish across both Moneyline odds. Otherwise, your probabilities will be artificially under-inflated.
    Example: ML odds of -190 and +178 translates into Expected Win Probabilities of 64.6% and 35.4%, respectively.
  2. Using these Win Probabilities, perform a backwards application of the Pythagorean Win Expectation Formula to reverse engineer the respective Expected Run Totals for each team.
    In our example, these Expected Run Totals turn out to be 4.38 and 3.12.
  3. Repeat #1 and 2 for every game being analyzed.
Now that I have a list of Expected Run Totals for each team in every game, I can calculate the probability of:
• Team A -1.5 Run Line Wins
• Team B -1.5 Run Line Wins
• Neither Team A nor Team B -1.5 Run Lines Win (both lose)
And by Performing a sum-product of the Probabilities X Potential Profit for each of these three scenarios, one can calculate the Expected Value (EV) of this system for every game.
Conclusions
I followed this approach for every game available on BetOnline and Heritage yesterday and today, and here is what I found:
• Every single game is -EV using this theory. There were no exceptions. This means that, while you might win occasionally due to variance and random luck, you should expect to lose money over the long run.
• The average EV across all games was -0.20 units.
• The best EV for a single game was -0.06 units. While close to break even, this is still a long-term loser.
• Heritage had one game that was a strange outlier (-0.99 units). If that outlier is removed, the average EV across all games increased to -0.15 units.
• Heritage performed slightly better than BetOnline (-0.13 vs. -0.17), which I suppose should be expected due to it having lower % juice across all bets.
Further Research
If the results were even slightly promising, I would invest more time performing this analysis across many more dates, games, and sportsbooks. Admittedly, just 2 days of games across 2 sportsbooks is a very small sample size. Furthermore, I would move on to testing a massive amount of real-life historical game data - odds and scores. However, the results seem to be confirming what we should already know – that sportsbook odds are designed to be -EV by their very nature, and it is impossible to create a +EV scenario simply by adding two -EV wagers together.
If anyone wants me to analyze some games that they believe might be good candidates to break this rule, I can reproduce the calculations easily in Excel. Just send me a list of games, with each row having the following columns:
• Sportsbook
• Game Date
• Team A Name
• Team B Name
• Game Total (from sportsbook)
• Team A Moneyline Odds (from sportsbook - American format preferred, decimal format acceptable)
• Team B Moneyline Odds (from sportsbook - American format preferred, decimal format acceptable)
• Team A -1.5 Runline Odds (from sportsbook - American format preferred, decimal format acceptable)
• Team B -1.5 Runline Odds (from sportsbook - American format preferred, decimal format acceptable)
submitted by djbayko to sportsbook [link] [comments]

MLB Run Line Betting System (Theory)

I have a theory that I'd like to get some feedback on. For any given MLB game, if for the favoirte you take their -1.5 run line, and on the underdog take an alternate spread -1.5 run line, you are very likely to have two plus lines here. In fact the underdog's -1.5 line will have a much more positive line. If you bet on these two plus lines, and the winning team wins the game by more than 1 run, then you will net positive money. If the winning team only wins by 1 run, you would lose both bets. I just ran the numbers on the 2015 and 2016 MLB seasons to determine how many games were won by more than 1 run. In 2015 70.89% and in 2016 71.7% of games met this 2+ run criteria. This excludes playoff games for these two seasons. I am wondering if this type of play could yield a net positive return. Perhaps the concept could be used to only bet on games where the difference in the two teams scores is expected to be larger. Wondering if I'm on to something here or its a load of crap since this success rate is only just above 70%.
submitted by HDfried to sportsbook [link] [comments]

[Sports] - Running bet: Vegas sets line for Ravens' Jackson | ESPN

[Sports] - Running bet: Vegas sets line for Ravens' Jackson | ESPN submitted by AutoNewspaperAdmin to AutoNewspaper [link] [comments]

[Sports] - Running bet: Vegas sets line for Ravens' Jackson

[Sports] - Running bet: Vegas sets line for Ravens' Jackson submitted by AutoNewsAdmin to ESPNauto [link] [comments]

Has anyone played Diceball (a Craps variant)?

We're making a trip to the Netherlands and the casinos there don't have Craps but they have this game called Diceball that seems similar enough to scratch that itch.
Basically you make a "Run Line" bet and if you can make 4 consecutive rolls without rolling a 7, you get paid 1:1 and you keep going. There's a "Grand Slam" side bet which pays more if you make more Runs.
The part that seemed interesting to me was they have a bet similar to Place bets but they all pay 1:1 and some include two numbers (2 or 5, 3 or 4, 6, 8, 10 or 11, 9 or 12). They also have Hard Ways bets (including 2 and 12) that pay 5:1 but they stay up if you roll it Easy and only lose on a 7.
submitted by Branical to Craps [link] [comments]

I want better Internet, virgin media already have a line to the home being used by others, i want my own personal line/connection and virgin media will not run a second line, who is my best bet?

Currently using BT with the 14-24mbps paying £35 for internet that never peaks 16mpbs... HELP PLEASE!
I have tried using BTs site to see if i can get the 100mps average deal but it will never show up when im on upgrades and im not sure if thats because there isnt a line to the house for it (they had to run a new line for the current one i have) or if its because my area cannot have those speeds, im not rural i live in a town 15 minute drive from a large city on the south coast.
submitted by LulzAtDeath to unitedkingdom [link] [comments]

Sports Betting 101: MLB Run Line Explained

Sports Betting 101: MLB Run Line Explained submitted by thephxoracle to u/thephxoracle [link] [comments]

Delta Air Lines bets on AI to help its operations run smoothly in bad weather

submitted by GeorgeYDesign to techcrunch [link] [comments]

@TechCrunch: Delta Air Lines bets on AI to help its operations run smoothly in bad weather https://t.co/330oYvvIom by @fredericl https://t.co/sMHP3ak6jq

@TechCrunch: Delta Air Lines bets on AI to help its operations run smoothly in bad weather https://t.co/330oYvvIom by @fredericl https://t.co/sMHP3ak6jq submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

What Is The Run Line In MLB Betting?

submitted by thephxoracle to u/thephxoracle [link] [comments]

Sports Betting Picks - Minny Run Line -120 (Minny is 19-5 off of a loss, RL is a nice 16-8 after a L and they are the best road team over the last 6 weeks with a wRC+ of 140+) Easy Money from CheatSheetPros!

Sports Betting Picks - Minny Run Line -120 (Minny is 19-5 off of a loss, RL is a nice 16-8 after a L and they are the best road team over the last 6 weeks with a wRC+ of 140+) Easy Money from CheatSheetPros! submitted by CheatSheetProscom to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

We've been running spreads and money lines for over 20 years. And now we've come to Reddit to share the love… Place your bets people! 🤑 #CrazyAboutTheOdds

We've been running spreads and money lines for over 20 years. And now we've come to Reddit to share the love… Place your bets people! 🤑 #CrazyAboutTheOdds submitted by Unibet_US to u/Unibet_US [link] [comments]

[Sports] - MLB betting tip: Why you should stay away from the run line | NY Post

[Sports] - MLB betting tip: Why you should stay away from the run line | NY Post submitted by AutoNewspaperAdmin to AutoNewspaper [link] [comments]

[Sports] - MLB betting tip: Why you should stay away from the run line

[Sports] - MLB betting tip: Why you should stay away from the run line submitted by AutoNewsAdmin to NYPOSTauto [link] [comments]

Sports Betting 101: What is a Baseball Run Line?

Sports Betting 101: What is a Baseball Run Line? submitted by WagerTalk to WagerTalk [link] [comments]

Sports Betting 101: What is a Baseball Run Line?

Sports Betting 101: What is a Baseball Run Line? submitted by WagerTalk to WagerTalk [link] [comments]

Bittersweet Arnautovic moment in training - hits the crossbar from halfway line on a bet with Noble, then runs like his balls are chaffing.

Bittersweet Arnautovic moment in training - hits the crossbar from halfway line on a bet with Noble, then runs like his balls are chaffing. submitted by 404randomguy404 to FantasyPL [link] [comments]

Does Pitching Change Effect ML?

im not sure if my parlays are fucked up now cause the braves changed their pitcher, it's saying:
PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [905] LOS ML-170 ( ACTION ) (PCHG) [919] TOR -135 ( ACTION )
I'm sure a pitching change would result in 'No Action' for the run line, but not sure if it would the money line. if it does result in No Action for the money line i might consider making the same parlay again with the new pitcher.
EDIT: I think i found my answer (thanks, google):
Baseball wagers are accepted in the following manner: For game money/total/run-line betting there are three options to choose from: 1. 'Action' - team against team, regardless of the starting pitcher. 2. 'One specified pitcher' - a wager on or against one specific starting pitcher, regardless of the other starting pitcher. Specified pitcher must start or wager is deemed no action. 'Listed pitchers must start' - a wager that specifies both starting pitchers. Any variation constitutes no action.
since i picked 'ACTION' I'm assuming I'm good and the parlays stand as is?
submitted by SomeJerkoff to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Sports Betting Tips: How to Bet the Run Line in Baseball?

Sports Betting Tips: How to Bet the Run Line in Baseball? submitted by WagerTalk to WagerTalk [link] [comments]

I bet most of the people complaining about Sleeper in Gambit run/double jump in a straight line when they invade.

Seriously though, 90% of the invaders I see in gambit run straight at the enemy team and do a big double jump off a high point on the map.
“Hey! Team! A glowing red guardian is slowly falling in a straight line toward us... maybe we should shoot them!”
You’re easy to kill with any gun when you do that, and you make it REALLY easy for sleeper to charge up and pop you when you move in a slow arching predictable straight line.
submitted by dax268 to DestinyTheGame [link] [comments]

Las Vegas odds at Wynn for Game 163.

Dodgers are favored to win tomorrow straight up but not on the runline.
They are predicting a high scoring game.
What bet would you make?

Moneyline Bet:
Rockies +150
Dodgers -165

Run Line Bet:
Rockies +1 1/2 -150
Dodgers - 1 1/2 +130

TOTAL RUNS OVER & UNDER BET:
OVER 7. -120
UNDER 7. EVEN
submitted by fastmxsx to Dodgers [link] [comments]

Has anyone run the numbers on betting on Reverse Line Movement? Is it a myth?

I've heard from friends about it and it seems to win more often than not but what about long term? Or is it a fool's strategy?
submitted by LaughsWithYou to sportsbook [link] [comments]

What is a Run Line in baseball betting? Rick Renteria White Sox Win Rate Run Line Over Under Betting Angles 6-26-2020 MLB Betting Strategy - Run Line Betting Tips l Picks & Parlays

They also played in 56 one-run games, well above the mean of 47.8. The Colorado Rockies played to an average of 10.17 runs per game, and they only played 41 one-run games. Line Shopping. As always with sports betting, be very aware of the prices that you are paying for run-lines. Run lines present an interesting betting opportunity for baseball fans or anyone who prefers to wager against the spread. Analyzing the run line can be complex at times, but it can be a highly profitable bet for those willing to put in the effort. Betting the run line percentages. Those teams playing way below 30% average will play more one run games to get back closer to the average.The team I would not bet on the run line is the Astros. The Astros have 28 one run games for the season. Teams will play an average of 48 one run games a year (plus or minus 4 games). Sports betting on the Internet can be a thrilling experience for anyone. If you want your sports betting experience to go off without a hitch, however, you need to find the right website. Thankfully, the Internet is home to quite a few appropriate sites that can provide users with top-notch experiences. The 1.5-run spread never changes with the standard MLB run line, but the corresponding moneyline odds do. For example, the following is a moneyline listing for a typical MLB game: New York Mets +145 Philadelphia Phillies -155 In this scenario, you would have to risk $155 to win $100 betting the Phillies as favorites.

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What is a Run Line in baseball betting?

MLB Best and Worst Win Rate Run Line Over Under Betting Angles Past 3 Seasons 6-30-2020 - Duration: 4:20. Tony's Picks 2 views. New; 4:20. Mix Play all Mix - Tony's Picks YouTube; Aaron ... Free MLB Betting Strategy and Tips for MLB Run Line Wagers from Expert Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy from Picks & Parlays Free daily sports picks! Get today's free sports pick! We have free sports ... What is a Run Line in baseball betting? How does the run line differ from the MLB money line? Baseball betting expert, bookmaker, and Doc's Sports very own pro Handicapper Raphael Esparza explains ...