r/Bitcoin - Cheap money was the cause of the bull market

Starting with almost nothing, I made almost $500,000 gambling with Bitcoin. I then lost it all in about 60 seconds. I am now $50k in debt and will most likely lose my job, my visa status, my fiancee. AMA.

EDIT: 01/12/14
EDIT: Thank you all for taking the time to read this. The overwhelming majority of your responses have been very supportive, and I feel that I got a lot of perspective. I am in tears right now, because in my self-loathing state I really did not expect so much positive feedback. I need to come clean to my fiancee, because that is the one variable that I can control.
This is a story of luck, hope, greed, despair, stupidity. Over the past 10 days I have gone one a rollercoaster ride of the full spectrum of human emotion. I am trying to live down what happened, and maybe this AMA will help me. I feel this can work both ways too, and I am grateful for any advice I receive. Hopefully also it will help you!
I say that I hope my story will help you and I really mean that any of you, because let me start off by saying that I am not a gambler, and I have never even exhibited gambling tendencies before. I am a risktaker and I enjoy new experiences, but I have always considered myself responsible and I have a sound understanding of the maths behind gambling. I know that the house always wins. But after what happened to me, how quickly I got sucked in, how much money I made, and how it all ended just days later, I honestly do not feel that I was fully in control of my actions. If it happened to me, it can happen to you too, and I sincerely hope that after reading this, it never will.
Let me give some more specific details, so that you have a more complete picture. I will fill in the rest in response to your questions.
EDIT: I ran out of space for proof, please see comments.
So this is pretty much my story. I meant for this to be short, but I now I'm almost at the word limit. I hope there is still room for questions!
I realize that there are a lot of people who will say that I had it coming, and I fully accept that. The truth is that I am a bad person, and it was not even some conflict of good and bad, this was just all bad. I lose as a human being, and I deserve nothing but the worst of what life has to offer me in the future. And if I sound incongruently cheerful, it's probably because the gravity of the situation has not fully sunk in yet. Trust me, I am not cheerful. I have literally lost everything, I am suicidal, and there is literally no silver lining here. So please reserve your judgment; I will be judged to the fullest extent over however long a time I have left to live.
Gambling details:
1 Some of the names and places may be fictitious.
2 I was never a gambler, but I do have a degree in math: there's around a 90% chance that you will top up by 10% if you combine basic strategy with martingale. The inherent variance, 3/2 payouts and doubling makes the whole process very confusing to an untrained eye, and it's not that obvious that you are using a cheap and flawed betting system. Scraping a small profit is very easy and fun. I guess I just wanted to impress my fiancee and her friends.
3 The bad beats with Blackjack were mainly due to variance. The problem with Blackjack is that the house edge is calculated by considering a large number of hands with the same starting bet. But with martingales, getting a 3/2 payout is more beneficial with higher bets; likewise having to split/double is good with higher bets, but not good if you're up against the max bet. So the luck further compounded by variance of the bet amount with respect to the starting hand. In roulette the house edge is worse, the but game is a lot more homogeneous.
4 I gave bitZino about 6 months of their earnings from last year in just under one minute: http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/01/bitcoin-based-casino-rakes-in-over-500000-profit-in-six-months/
5 The probability of a run of 7 black is just under 1%, which is a number that we can relate to, it's 1 in 100. Pretty unlikely. If your luck sucks you might hit it a few times. The probability of 10 blacks is just under 0.1%. So if you hit one of the above, then only count is 1 in 10 times. Your luck has got to really suck to hit that more than once. The probability of an initial run of 12 black is around 0.02%, which is just ridiculously low. The probability of 20 black is about 0.0001% which is astronomically low. Disregarding the 2 reds, since I hit the max limit, so not really a fair account, but still. This is almost impossible.
submitted by WinnerAndLoser to IAmA [link] [comments]

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