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Offseason Review Series Day 9: The Baltimore Ravens

Ravens

Division: AFC North 2015 Record: 5-11 (3rd)

Overview

Coming into 2016, the Ravens have more question marks than the Riddler. Is our QB healed? Is our young WR star healed / re-injured healthy ? Are Steve Smith Sr., Terrell Suggs, Dennis Pitta, Crockett Gilmore, Maxx Williams, Justin Forsett, or indeed anybody who was a week-one starter last year healed? How the Ravens bounce back from one of the most injury-ridden seasons in recent history will be one of the most compelling stories of the season. If fans hold their breath every time one of last year’s injured players takes a hit, we’ll all turn blue and pass out before the end of the first pre-season drive.
Coaching changes in the secondary and front-seven mean that our defense could perform at just about any level and nobody would be surprised. New faces at safety and a fresh infusion of talent in the trenches suggest our most severe depth problem is at CB. Far more important than who plays will be how they play as a unit. Giving up long TD drives late in the half was our ugly signature move last season, and has plagued John Harbaugh’s Ravens his entire tenure here. It needs to change now.
Protecting the front office’s investment in Joe Flacco was the offense’s off-season priority this year. We took a left tackle with our top-ten pick, and we have so much depth at TE and RB that other teams may get starters or solid backups from our camp cuts. Giving Joe weapons downfield looks like it probably was on our shopping list as well -- picking up veteran Mike Wallace already looks like a savvy insurance policy after Perriman’s close call with his knee, and Ben Watson may yet take the field in place of Dennis Pitta. Will the left side of our line gel in time for week one? Will anybody besides Kamar Aiken be a reliable WR target for Joe this year? Let’s find out.

Coaching Changes

The biggest coaching change was the addition of Leslie Frazier, a Super Bowl winning DB from the 1985 Bears, former head coach of the Vikings, and former DC for the Bengals (among others). He’ll be coaching the Ravens’ secondary this year. John Harbaugh has long lamented the Ravens’ tendency to let teams drive with impunity at the end of the half, and we have to face Antonio Brown and A.J. Green twice a season each. Bringing Leslie Frazier in to challenge the DBs to do better is an A+ hire.
We lost linebackers coach Ted Monachino to the Colts, who intend for him to serve as Chuck Pagano’s defensive coordinator. The Colts get a B+ for this pickup in my book -- our linebacking has been a strength even without old #52 around, and Monachino probably gets a lot of the credit.
Clarence Brooks coached our defensive line and is our longest-tenured coach with over 10 years’ experience. His fight with esophageal cancer -- including radiation and chemotherapy -- is unlikely to leave him healthy enough to endure the physical toll that NFL coaching takes on a body. He’s been retained with the title of ‘senior defensive assistant’ and it’s hard to see whether that’s a sinecure or whether he’s expected to contribute.
To fill his shoes, the Ravens have brought in Joe Cullen, who has been influential in improving teams like the Buccaneers, Jaguars, and Browns, and whom the Buccaneers were considering for DC. Say what you like about those teams’ offenses in the last few years, but they’ve all had solid defensive line play, and that’s what we expect to get from hiring Cullen. With Brooks’ coaching foundation, Cullen should be able to find some youth & nastiness on our roster and continue to help the Ravens’ D-Line be a fearsome front. I give this hire a B for now.
With Frazier solidifying our secondary, Matt Weiss is moving from DB coach to LB coach (probably coaching coverage) and Don ‘Wink’ Martindale (OLB coach last year) will be leading the linebacking coaching staff. Martindale has been a DC for the Broncos before and shouldn’t have any problem with a leadership role; Weiss has a little more to prove but may improve our linebackers’ coverage skills. Until we see the unit working together, there’s no way to predict what kind of chemistry that arrangement will have; I give those moves an Incomplete until I can see some results.
Speaking of incomplete, Marc Trestman hasn’t really had a full season for us to honestly judge his progress as OC. What we saw last season looked good until our starters began imploding, exploding, losing limbs, etc.: Flacco was on pace for his first 4,000-yard season and even rotating in second- and third-string players, we were just below the NFL average in points and yards. We’re all eager to see whether his offense works better with a healthy slate of players.
Scott Cohen is taking a title change from coaching consultant to coaching assistant and opponent analyst. I’m a firm believer in using an adversarial mindset to discover an enemy’s weaknesses, and great organizations throughout the NFL amaze their opponents when they do this well. The Patriots are infamous for it, and Aaron Rodgers always credits the Packers’ scout team with helping him to prepare for what he’ll face each week. That said, I have no idea whether he’ll be any good at it! He gets a C until I see us get rid of our most obvious tendencies (e.g. starting every drive with a pass to Juszczyk).
While we’re talking about coaches, it’s a good time to point out that Brian Billick has the most regular-season wins of any Ravens coach with 80, but John Harbaugh currently has 77. This year expect a fourth-quarter announcement when Harbs passes our other Super-Bowl-winning coach to take the throne.

Free Agency

Players lost/cut
Player Position New team
Courtney Upshaw OLB ATL
Kelechi Osemele OG OAK
Daryl Smith LB Released
Will Hill S Released
Chris Canty DE Declined 2016 Option
Marlon Brown WR Waived
Defenders like Upshaw almost never get to stick around Baltimore for long. A long-armed edge-setter and pass deflector who can come through with sacks like this one is going to have a market value far in excess of what notorious penny-pincher value-seeker Ozzie Newsome is willing to shell out. Osemele was one of the NFL’s best guards over the last two seasons, but with the Ravens choosing early in a class full of O-Line talent, Ozzie elected to let K.O. walk away as well. Will Hill got us the kick-six against Cleveland and a couple of game-saving INTs, but his career here hasn’t been anything stellar; most fans believe we’ve upgraded by grabbing Eric Weddle. Chris Canty has performed well in a veteran role, but played just over 32 games in three seasons and never put up flashy numbers; it’s possible that we’ve seen the last of Canty in an NFL uniform. Marlon Brown looked like the future of the Ravens’ WR corps, but a failed physical cost him his spot.
Players signed or extended
Player Position Old Team Length Contract Value
Morgan Cox LS Ravens 5 years $5.6M
Joe Flacco QB Ravens 3 years $66.4M
Shareece Wright CB Ravens 3 years $16M
Justin Tucker K Ravens 1 year $4.57M (franchised)
Kamar Aiken WR Ravens - 2nd Round Tender
Albert McClellan ILB Ravens 3 years $3.75M
-- -- -- -- --
Eric Weddle S Chargers 4 years $26M
Mike Wallace WR Vikings 2 years $11.5M
Ben Watson TE Saints 2 years $8M
Trent Richardson RB Indy 1 year $625k
-- -- -- -- --
Fans of the Steelers and Bengals have already announced that they’re going to follow the Browns’ lead and make 2016 a rebuilding year. Why? Well, the Ravens have re-signed the most critical piece of their team to a great high-value deal. I’m talking, of course, about our Pro Bowl long snapper Morgan Cox -- arguably one of the best players in the league at what /nfl agrees is the single most important position on the team.
...Alright, I’ve gotten that out of my system. Restructuring Joe Flacco’s deal and getting Justin Tucker franchised secure for us two young Ravens who are both already on the Ravens’ Top 20 all-time scoring list. Flacco’s a franchise QB who will grow into a Top-10 veteran, and we’re paying market value for him. Tucker has captured the hearts of Ravens fans in a way that few other kickers ever have -- Matt Stover and Josh Scobee being the obvious exceptions. It will be interesting to see how the Ravens use Tucker’s leg with the new kickoff rules. Kamar Aiken was our leading receiver last year; while he’s unlikely to put up numbers quite that flashy again, he’s now spent most of a season going up against #1 CBs -- so expect to see him absolutely brutalize the weaker depth chart guys as a slot WR. Wright and McClellan both add veteran depth to our defense, and their occasional appearance on Special Teams highlight reels doesn’t hurt.
If you don’t already know the answer, ask Broncos fans how well Ozzie Newsome poaches veteran talent from other teams. They’ll be happy to see that we grabbed Pro Bowl safety Eric Weddle from their hated rivals in San Diego. We also got Mike Wallace as insurance against Perriman’s injuries persisting and shallowing out our WR depth chart, and right now that’s looking like a brilliant move. Similarly, Ben Watson shores up our roster in case Williams, Gilmore, or Pitta aren’t able to stay healthy or perform during camp. Trent Richardson was spotted at a variety of Baltimore-area businesses before he signed his “prove-it” deal for no money down; whether Ravens fans will see him at The Gap this fall has been a matter of debate. Every one of these veterans could boom or bust, and Ravens fans should trust Ozzie and DeCosta to write low-risk papers for all these guys.
My only quarrel with Ozzie’s off-season moves is that the TE and RB signings seem to heavily overstock our roster at positions where we already have considerable starting-caliber depth. Perhaps with Joe’s injury last season, our offense will focus more on players who can excel at those positions and also pass-block? I trust Ozzie, though, and give the whole slate of moves a solid B+.

Draft

Ozzie Newsome led several GMs through the NFL Draft do-si-do, moving down twice in the second to pick up additional middle-round picks. Our juggernaut of five fourth-rounders (trades & comp picks) make this draft class look like an armload of lottery tickets. If even half of them pan out, we’ll be a threat to hang unexpected losses on a lot of other teams.
Round Number Player Position School
1 6 Ronnie Stanley OT Notre Dame
2 42 Kamalei Correa OLB Boise State
3 70 Bronson Kaufusi DE BYU
4 104 Tavon Young CB Temple
4 107 Chris Moore WR Cincinnati
4 130 Alex Lewis OT Nebraska
4 132 Willie Henry DT Michigan
4 134 Kenneth Dixon RB La. Tech
5 146 Matt Judon DE Grand Valley St.
6 182 Keenan Reynolds WRB/PQB/LS Navy
6 209 Maurice Canady CB Virginia
Ronnie Stanley was a solid first-round pick; passing on Laramy Tunsil was a no-brainer for our front office after his (cough cough) respiratory issues and Bisciotti’s stance on domestic violence. Correa and Kaufusi both project as long-armed pass-rushers with run-stopping potential, building depth behind Suggs and potentially replacing Upshaw, but it’s always tricky to evaluate pass rushers before they play in the pros. Tavon Young is an undersized CB who competes physically to make up for his height -- he wore the coveted #1 jersey at Temple, where the team awards the single-digit jerseys to the top nine toughest players on the squad. (For comparison, their RB who wore #5 last year went back into the Notre Dame game nursing what looked like a broken rib, and scored a goal-line TD.) A DB with toughness like that is going to find a spot on Harbaugh’s roster.
Chris Moore is a WR who definitely has a 9-route and a post route in his bag of clubs to go with Joe Flacco’s Dragonball Toss, and he contests the catch well. The knock on him is that he may struggle to learn NFL-caliber route-running for routes that bend or turn sharply. Lewis & Henry figure to be depth players at their positions as rookies, but the rumor is that John Harbaugh got the inside scoop on Willie Henry from his brother at Michigan, and with the right spark in camp, he could pass Timmy Jernigan on the depth chart. RB Kenneth Dixon could surprise everyone and earn a spot -- his breakaway speed and his uncanny balance remind me of Ray Rice. If he doesn’t get a RB spot, he could shock our first few opponents as a deceptively fast punt return man. Judon and Canady are more likely depth guys who will have to work hard to make the team. And of course, Ensign Keenan Reynolds has been given permission from the Secretary of Defense to play in the NFL rather than immediately serving his active-duty obligation -- we’re all looking forward to seeing whether he picks up some KPR duties, gets a depth spot at WR, or does something else entirely. His training as an option QB gives us a trick-play option that we’ll almost certainly put on tape specifically so the Patriots have to prepare for it.
We also snagged eleven UDFAs, any of whom could be Ravens in September. Be honest with yourself as a fan: they rarely make the 53-man roster, but there’s always a chance that Ozzie found us a diamond in the rough. Our haul this year includes a poly-lingual tackle from Colorado, a guard (Jarell Broxton) from Baylor, a pair of centers from Harvard and Duke to keep up the team’s GPA, a “camp leg” kickepunter for special teams drills, and a brace of linebackers and trench defenders to serve as rotational guys. Broxton has the most long-term experience at guard; with Osemele and possibly Monroe leaving, he has the experience at what may be a position of need. Our other O-line prospects could also compete for the reserve guard spot: Center Anthony Fabiano is a former teammate of starter Kyle Juszczyk and has played every position on the O-Line; his smarts & versatility might help his stock. Duke center Matt Skura seems less likely but will get a fair shot at the job. You can look at each one’s résumé and see a guy who’s obviously just there to provide a body for camp drills… or you can watch the tape and convince yourself that you’re seeing an NFL starter. The pros know how to evaluate talent better than we do, so sit back and keep an eye on the pre-season games.

Other Offseason News that Affected the Team

At the end of last season, the Ravens looked like Napoleon’s Army returning from Stalingrad in the dead of winter, or Washington’s Continental Army dragging their asses around eastern Pennsylvania before the battle of Trenton. We were far and away the most critically-injured team, with nearly our entire starting offense on IR, as well as key players at each level of the defense. So the off-season has largely been about rehabilitating those injuries:
  • Joe Flacco (QB) tore an ACL and MCL. His recovery has been largely private, so we don’t know how well he’s coming along. Not throwing passes during OTAs or conducting offseason “chemistry” drills with his WRs and TEs is never a good thing, but he probably will be healthy by camp.
  • Dennis Pitta (TE) is an absolute cipher. If he’s good to go, he’s a starter; otherwise we keep him parked on IR or even IR-DR for $3.2M ‘early retirement’ money.
  • Breshad Perriman (WIR), last year’s first-round pick, is coming back from a hard-to-describe series of leg or knee injuries, the rehabilitation of which is a matter of intense debate and speculation. having a possible ACL injury examined, with the long-term prognosis unclear as of this writing. It takes a Jesuit, a psychic, and two Federal prosecutors to get a straight answer out of Coach Harbaugh on Perriman’s current recovery status. He could start week one, or start the season on IR; but may potentially earn our coveted “designated to return” spot.
  • Terrell Suggs (LEO) blew out an Achilles in week 1, and has been recovering well. The biggest question for him is whether he has enough left in the tank to put in another NFL-caliber season. He’ll be trying to rush the QB and chase down RBs on a pair of Achilles tendons that have both been torn during his football career.
  • Steve Smith Sr. (WR) also blew an Achilles, and spent the off-season icing up. Nobody has ever made a dime betting on Smith’s career to be over, but eventually if you keep predicting it, you’ll be right. Is this year that year?
  • Nick Boyle (TE) showed flashes of talent before being suspended four games last year for PEDs. This season he’s out for another ten games for the same reason. Coach Harbaugh will likely use the suspension doghouse as a ‘free’ 54th roster spot, in case we lose a TE like Dennis Pitta mid-season. If our TE situation is still solid late in the season, though, expect Boyle to get cut.
Last but not least, the Ravens will all be wearing a #25 patch on their uniforms this season to honor the memory of CB Tray Walker, who died in a dirt-bike accident in March at the age of 23.

Projected Starting Lineup

Position Starter Backup Depth (if applicable)
QB Flacco Mallett Reynolds?
RB Forsett Allen Taliaferro
FB Juszczyk - -
TE/Y Pitta/Watson Gilmore Williams
WR1/Z Aiken Perriman Moore
WR2/X Smith Sr. Wallace Daniel Brown
LT Stanley Lewis Hurst
LG Jensen Broxton? -
C Zuttah Urschel -
RG Yanda Jensen -
RT Wagner Lewis Hurst
LEO Suggs Correa ?
DE Guy Urban Kaufusi
DT Williams Jernigan Davis
ILB Mosley Brown Orr
OLB Dumervil Z. Smith Correa
CB J. Smith Wright Young
S Weddle Webb Lewis
K/P/LS Tucker Koch Cox
KR Clay Ross Dixon
PR Clay Campanaro? Reynolds
The Ravens have long been famous for our defense, but since the departure of Lewis & Reed after SB47, Ravens fans have been looking to Joe Flacco and the offense to help carry the load. Joe has always had at least one legitimate weapon but has rarely also had a deep threat and a reliable TE; when he had Boldin, Smith, and Pitta, we won a Super Bowl. This year we appear to have depth at all of those positions, but depth doesn’t matter if the guy at the top of the chart isn’t good enough. If Joe can find three pass-catchers he can trust, we have a shot at winning 10 or more games. He’ll also need an offensive line he can trust, and that’s still up in the air.
The story in the running game is much the same: we are prepared to take advantage of whatever the O-Line will give us. We have plenty of depth at RB, plenty of players who might surprise us with their talent, but no obvious superstars in sight. A good offensive line, especially under the Kubiak-derived offense we use, can make even a shabby RB look good. Every Ravens fan will be watching the preseason games with interest, scrutinizing the replays for something to clear away the fog and show us a future we can believe in.
Defensively we lack starter-caliber depth at the cornerback position, and have some interesting questions at safety. Weddle was an All-Pro (is he still?) and Webb may turn out to be very good at safety (especially as Frazier & Weddle coach him up). Elam and our other safeties are good-not-great. Jimmy Smith can be a shutdown superstar or a merely good CB, but we don’t know which one we’ll get now that his Lisfranc is healed up. Shareece Wright is not a star but played very well, and Will Davis looked good before his ACL injury. Further down the DB roster, though, you find replacement-level talent or unproven rookies. If our defensive front struggles to generate pressure without Clarence Brooks’ coaching, our secondary is going to have a very long year going up against Antonio Brown (twice), A.J. Green (twice), Tom Brady, and even Tyrod Taylor.

Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

Position groups:
  • QB - Our elite dragon is back! The completeness of his recovery from the ACL injury is the strength or weakness of this position group. It’s hard to overstate just how much of our performance this year is predicated on Flacco’s healthy return from ACL/MCL rehab.
  • Backfield - We have a ton of depth at RB this year. Justin Forsett is 30 this year and needs to watch his back. Javorius “Buck” Allen is our most likely backup. Trent Richardson has been out of football for a year but is still young and could earn a spot as a pass-blocker or goal-line back. Terrance West and Lorenzo Taliaferro have both shown the ability to carry the load as a backup or potentially a starter. Terrance Magee (LSU) and Kenneth Dixon (La. Tech) could push the Louisiana rivalry during camp and either one could surprise us. It’s anybody’s job.
  • OL - John Harbaugh is none too pleased with Eugene Monroe’s offseason remarks about marijuana. He’ll start the five best linemen, and so the question is whether Ronnie Stanley will steal Monroe’s job, or whether Monroe will stay at LT and Stanley will do a rookie season at guard. Just before deadline, Harbaugh admitted in a press conference that the Ravens were shopping Monroe for a trade, which appears to leave the LG position open. Jensen, Hurst, and Urschel are battle-tested reserves but it seems unlikely that we’d keep all of them around with the rookies we’ve drafted -- watch for Alex Lewis to challenge the sometimes-disappointing Hurst for the role of Stanley’s LT understudy. LG starter and chemistry in the absence of Osemele is the looming question, but we have starters and three viable backups.
  • Pass catchers - Historically, receiving is a weak spot for us: the Ravens always seem to have a good-but-really-old guy, a fast guy on the outside, and a bunch of guys from the plumbers’ union on the depth chart. Depth at TE is a blessing for the bunch formations we use frequently. We have reasonable depth at WR as well, but it’s all unproven, aging, or just-barely-good-enough. Even if Mike Wallace returns to his prime, Steve Smith Sr. comes back 100%, Perriman is injury-free or Chris Moore steps up to fill Perriman’s shoes, and Kamar Aiken continues to perform, Joe Flacco might still only have the third-best receiving corps in the AFC North.
  • DL - A good defensive line can mask a lot of problems in the secondary, and when ours is not injured we have one of the most stacked DL depth charts in the league. Terrell Suggs is our aging LEO who still knows how to bring down a gazelle. Brandon Williams is a early-career NT coming into the last year of his rookie deal, and he knows that planting Andy Dalton or Ben Roethlisberger on national TV is a great way to get paid. Carl Davis was the player whose bear-paw blocked the Browns’ kick for the win last year, and he’ll have to rotate in with Timmy Jernigan and maybe Willie Henry. It’s not clear that we have anyone who can replace Suggs’ physical gifts on the edges. Bronson Kaufusi was an early draft pick and might have what it takes to leapfrog the oft-injured Brent Urban and Kapron Lewis-Moore, if he himself can stay healthy. We saw a lot of our defensive depth last year (since our offense couldn’t stay on the field) so we have a comparatively deep and experienced bench -- few stars, but no obvious weak links either.
  • LB - Ravens fans still remember some amazing linebacking corps from the early ‘00s. Nobody can ever replace #52, but C.J. Mosley does as much as any mortal man can. Even non-fans put him in the conversation with Luke Kuechly for best ILB in the game today. Dumervil on the edge still has some gas in the tank but needs a good scheme to compensate for his rust and get him to the QB early. You’ve probably never heard of Zach Orr but he’ll likely see more reps and could have a good year as well. Kamalei Correa is listed as OLB but might surprise everyone by making a splash rotating to ILB (he could just as easily rotate to LEO if Suggs doesn’t return to form). Za’Darius Smith could have a second-year growth spurt and dazzle everyone with flashy play off the edges.
  • Secondary - Cutting Will Hill and not picking up Matt Elam’s fifth year deal were both easy moves for Ozzie to make financially. CB Lardarius Webb has had back issues, but still excels when he can keep the play in front of him; he is also one of the only DBs left who studied under Ed Reed, so it’s no surprise that he’s enjoying the transition to safety. Will he slot in with Eric Weddle and leave Kendrick Lewis in reserve? Will we play some more three-safety defense? The Ravens’ secondary has been an area of concern since Ed Reed left, and this year is no different. Let’s see if Leslie Frazier and a couple of Pro Bowlers can start scaring opposing QBs into holding the ball a bit longer.
  • Special Teams - The Wolf Pack is one of the best Special Teams units in the NFL. Justin Tucker has excellent accuracy inside the 50 and the leg to make attempts from further away. Sam Koch changed the game by being able to ‘show’ one style of punt and then deliver multiple other styles, frequently pinning opponents inside the 10. Our elite long snapper Morgan Cox rounds out the Wolf Pack and provides a consistent anchor for the unit. Coach Harbaugh’s pedigree as a special teams coach means that players who can contribute on teams get the last few roster spots -- that emphasis means the Ravens give up comparatively few punt and kick return TDs. Can Justin Tucker learn to pin opponents deep on kickoffs, or will we play conservatively and settle for touchbacks?

Schedule Predictions

  • [email protected]: Week one marks Tyrod Taylor’s homecoming to Baltimore. The defense will need to keep Buffalo from getting a lead; Rex’s teams play very well with a lead. (L)
  • [email protected]: Week 2, we travel to Cleveland and pick up a win. They’re in rebuilding mode and we’re not. (W)
  • [email protected]: The Jags are a Florida team that beat our farm team last year by kicking a FG on an unearned untimed down. They don’t keep it within 3 this year. (W)
  • [email protected]: Oakland demolished our secondary last season, but 🎺🎺🎺 BAH GAWD KING, THAT’S ERIC WEDDLE’S MUSIC! Watch for our new safety to keep Amari cooped up, and put the brakes on Carr. (W)
  • [email protected]: Another Battle of the Beltways! I sound like a homer picking us to win so many, but our schedule is front-loaded with teams that we can beat. So we’d better. (W)
  • [email protected]: A tough contest. Last time we had their number and out-schemed them in an embarrassing beat-down. This year it’s more of a one-score game. I’ll give this road game to the Giants. (L)
  • [email protected]: We host the Jets for our second week in a row at the Meadowlands. I say “host” because they’re off in Buffalo or something the week before. So we’re basically the home team. I honestly don’t think Geno gets it done against our pass rush. (W)
  • BYE couldn’t be more ideally placed.
  • [email protected]: In the absence of sleeper agents on Special Teams, it is traditional to split the series home & away. The Ravens are at home and coming off a bye, so we’ll take the (W).
  • [email protected]: Does a rejuvenated Browns squad steal a win from a Ravens team that had to pay for their nail-biter division win in bumps and bruises? ...No. No they don’t. (W)
  • [email protected]: The Cowboys have never beaten the Ravens. This year, as long as Romo is healthy, they finally get the win. (L)
  • [email protected]: I’d love to tell you guys that we’re going to thrash the Bengals, but we’re not. We’ve kept it within one score of them every time, but it’s always a goddamn deep ball to A.J. Green in the 4th, or a shitty flag, or both, that holds us back. More of the same. Buy extra whiskey. (L)
  • [email protected]: Speaking of Florida teams that beat our second string last year, Miami beat our decimated roster only because a phantom OPI call negated a TD pass to Daniel Brown. Who? That’s right. I expect that this year, if Miami even sees him, it’ll be because we’ve decided to put him in during the 4th quarter of a thrashing. Watch the Ravens play three solid quarters and then put some goofy stuff on tape just to make Belichick game-plan against it the next week. (W)
  • [email protected]: Nobody but Tom Coughlin & Eli Manning strike fear in the hearts of Patriots fans like John Harbaugh & Joe Flacco do. It’s a regular season matchup, and a Monday Night Game to boot, so watch us make it close and then fritter away a shot at a solid win. John Harbaugh coaches our defense to keep hitting Brady until we get flagged, and then back it off just a little bit, so expect at least one Raven to be fined, ejected, or suspended for a vicious but ba-a-a-a-asically legal sack. Listen closely as Gruden avoids saying “that really deflated his balls”, and watch Harbaugh call at least one pass to Juszczyk in the flat just so Gruden can talk about SPIDER 2 Y BANANA. (L)
  • [email protected]: We’re at home against a weak Eagles team that probably won’t even be playing for a playoff spot at this point, and I suspect most people would give the Ravens the edge. (W)
  • [email protected]: It is written that we split the series. Who am I to argue? (L)
  • [email protected]: It is also written that we spend Week 17 in Ohio. The NFL wants us playing the Bengals on the road every Week 17 and I can’t figure out why. Key personnel on the Bengals are dinged up -- or resting for the playoffs!? -- but Baltimore’s bench is full of guys who know how to adjust when someone gets carted off. We steal this (W) from Cincy, throw everyone’s brackets into disarray, and stagger into the playoffs at 10-6. If Andy Dalton’s going to win a playoff game this year, it’s going to have to be as a Wild Card team on the road.
Now, we haven’t talked about … strangeness. Strangeness is blowing the Pats out of the water and then dropping an easy home game to Philly. Strangeness is going into the bye wondering how the hell Geno Smith’s backup QB burned us for 300 yards and 3 TDs, and then handing the Cowboys their first loss of the season a few weeks later. Strangeness is beating Cincy 37-10 at home, and then letting the Dolphins beat us 14-9 the next week. If we get hot -- or in a rut -- you’re going to be swapping around W’s and L’s in places you never dreamed of. You can’t predict strangeness.
That said, the AFC North has averaged two teams in the playoffs over the last ten years, and there’s no reason to think it’s going to change this year. Barring major injuries or suspensions, I think the Steelers and Bengals probably make it in this year ahead of us. That doesn’t mean we couldn’t end up with the third WC spot, or catch a break if one of them stumbles. I think Pittsburgh’s bench is shallower than ours, especially on defense, so that late-season game could be a bloodbath rather than the perennial struggle. The Bengals lack mental discipline - watch for teams to test their hot-headed players to provoke the new suspension rules. (I’m looking at you, Ryan Brothers’ defense. I’m looking at you, Steve Smith Sr. I’m looking at you, completely expendable Patriots training staff carrying booklets of oddly-specific Cincinnati-themed insults.)
So: realistically, the Ravens finish with 9 wins and squeak into a WC or a bone-headed play early in the season comes back to bite us as we drop that WC spot to an opportunistic AFCE team that holds the head-to-head over us. Or maybe, just maybe, we beat Cincy in Week 17 and secure a well-earned playoff spot with 10 wins. As always in the AFC North, it’s going to come down to the last two minutes of the last week of the season.

Training Camp Battles to watch

The biggest training camp battle will be for the running back position. We have Forsett, who’s been a starter before but suffered a gruesome injury to his forearm last season in the same game where we lost Flacco. His age and injury potentially open the door for anybody -- will Trent Richardson finally prove himself? Will Lorenzo Taliaferro or Buck Allen step up from their backup roles and show starter talent? Or will Terrance Magee or Kenneth Dixon lap them all with youth and enthusiasm? Before we have any pre-season tape, you’d be a fool to bet on any of them. We’re not going to keep all six of them on the roster, so fifth prize might be a season stashed on IR pink slip.
The left side of the offensive line is another assignment the fans will be watching. Eugene Monroe is last year’s veteran starter at the LT job, but Harbaugh doesn’t like his public stance on marijuana and the team has been frustrated with his difficulty staying on the field. Just yesterday, Harbaugh admitted that he’s shopping Monroe around for potential trades. If Monroe stays, expect to see Stanley slotted in at LG for a year to develop. Reserve LG Ryan Jensen (or reserve C John Urschel) could move into a starting spot with Stanley on the outside if Monroe leaves Baltimore, but that leaves us shallow at reserve guard. Also keep an eye on 4th-round pick Alex Lewis to potentially beat out James Hurst for the reserve LT position. Harbaugh has been cryptic as ever, promising that he’ll start the five best guys, but he has also made it clear that a #6 overall pick like Stanley is expected to earn himself a starting job.
At wide receiver, a lot of our junior depth players from last year will now be trying to protect their spots from Mike Wallace and Chris Moore, both of whom are auditioning for the role of speedy WR alongside Breshad Perriman. Kamar Aiken’s performance last year probably earned him a spot, and Steve Smith Sr. will have to have a leg amputated before he stops competing. That leaves Mike Campanaro, Daniel Brown, and rookie Chris Moore the favorites to earn maybe two total depth positions. Everyone else wearing a WR number is on notice: learn to play good special teams, or pack your bags.
On the defensive side of the ball there aren’t as many questions -- we’ve done a decent job of retaining talent and buying depth where we didn’t have it. The line has plenty of big bodies with a fairly uniform level of talent, barring injuries. The array of defensive backs is less of a question than how well they can perform as a unit (although watch Will Davis, back from an ACL, to try to beat Kyle Arrington for a spot). One place to look is in the trenches at defensive tackle, where Timmy Jernigan could lose his starting job or face slightly fewer snaps if Willie Henry shows up loaded for bear.
The best way to make John Harbaugh’s roster if you’re on the bubble is to be a standout on Special Teams. Our presumptive returners, Kaelin Clay and Jeremy Ross, need to keep an eye on our long-shot DBs, WRs, and RBs. Keenan Reynolds and Kenneth Dixon both have the athleticism to get a returner job, and Tavon Young’s small stature -- a liability at CB -- combined with his physicality could make him a stealth favorite for PR.

Discuss Offensive and Defensive Schemes

Offensively, the Ravens have a West Coast offense built on a zone-blocking scheme inherited from Gary Kubiak’s time with the team. We run lots of traditional “11” groupings (1 RB, 1 TE) and rotate our fullback into our “21” package (FB, RB, TE). In 11, we favor bunch formations: they dare the defense to single-cover our deep threat, and put a tangle of confusing routes underneath on the strong side. A trailing TE can come under the formation like a pulling guard and turn an obvious passing formation into a variant on the Power-O run. From 21, we love play-action passes to the fullback. All of the trickery underneath exists to set up the play that everyone in the NFL knows is coming: Flacco’s deep ball, which we typically unleash on first-and-ten once we get inside the opponent’s 45. Completion rates on the deep ball vary based on receiver, route, and defender technique, with the “go” route (the Torrey Smith DPI Special) having about a one-in-three chance of completion, and angled routes like a post being more like a fifty-fifty proposition (but with higher risk of INT). We build our offense around the threat of Joe’s arm -- which keeps defenses deep for our runs and short game -- and delivering on that threat as soon as they ‘cheat shallow’ to try to take away the dink-and-dunk game.
Defensively we show a 4-3 Under, which challenges the opponent’s protection starting at the pre-snap read and gives your defensive front a one-gap play style. LEO (Suggs) is a pass-rusher and run-blocker on the strong side who can decide whether to pressure the outside edge or cut underneath and inside. The 1-technique NT has to go straight up against the center and play two-gap, while the 3-tech NT can pick his gap and go man-on-man. Jernigan and Williams will share those inside responsibilities with Carl Davis and rookie Willie Henry; other than Brandon Williams none of them is a proven starter. Lawrence Guy was last year’s standout DE, but this year he figures to share snaps with Brent Urban or Bronson Kaufusi. With the coaching changes in our front seven, the key is going to be veterans like Suggs coaching continuity on behalf of Clarence Brooks. Never underestimate the effectiveness of DB blitzes from these formations, especially after showing double-A-gap pressure on multiple sequential downs. Our tendency last year to drop giant lumbering DEs into coverage (a key feature of the old ‘Fire Zone’ blitz) was a liability -- QBs knew when it was coming and targeted the DE. We need to do a better job of applying and disguising pressure this year, or we’re sunk.
Shoutouts to those who helped:
  • First priority, an overflowing purple helmet full of gratitude for skepticismissurvival for organizing this, and to Hail_to_Caesar for taking the time to write up a detailed post about a team they’re not even cheering for this year. SKOL to both of you!
  • A huge thanks to /ravens for saving me a ton of research with the great sidebar information, and for answering my “Open Mic” thread with additional information I would have missed for sure. That goes double for the mods who edit the sidebar and keep the subreddit full of good reliable sources.
  • Also thanks to my friend & copy-editor Cory M., who was a great help to me both for his knowledge of the Ravens and his excellent writing.
Link to hub
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Tech Mission Tuesday - Brief Detour Edition

Today we’re taking a brief break from the conventional tech trees to look at the tanks available from the personal missions mechanic, as well as discuss some basic missioning tips. All of these vehicles are premium vehicles in a manner similar to the CW reward tanks. They will accept any crew of the nation and class without penalty, have the standard XP bonus based on tier, but do not have a credit bonus. So, without further ado, the prize of the bunch…

Object 260 - Tier 10 Soviet Heavy

Well hello there, my dear.
The 260 is an odd bird. Initially referred to as “a better IS-7”, I can’t support that assessment. It takes properties from the IS-7, IS-4, T110E5, and even the 110. Comparing/contrasting with its two sisters in the Soviet tree makes the most sense, however.
Hard numbers.
With but a couple exceptions, the hull is an IS-7. Seems to be the same pike, same lower plate, same raw thickness, same sides, same 30mm skirts, etc. The sides behind the skirts aren't curved like the IS-7, rather they are a linear slope meeting with a vertical plate, which results in a tiny bit more unsloped armor low on the side hull, but this does not seem a consequential difference. The thing that does seem to matter is the triangular plate over the driver's head. It's 45mm instead of the IS-7's 140mm. It is sharply sloped, yes, but you can still get some rounds through there that wouldn't go through on the IS-7.
The turret trends more towards the IS-4 than the IS-7. It is quite strong frontally, but shares the 30mm roof that is easy to overmatch, though it is both a bit higher up and not sloped forward like the IS-3/IS-4, making for a more difficult shot. The cheeks are mildly sloped but a whopping 350mm thick, so will largely not be a concern. The sloping bits above and below them are a very sharply sloped 170mm, similarly quite strong. The biggest problem is that the turret has a large overhang, and this overhang can serve as a shot trap that redirects rounds into the 45 and 30mm armor sections below it. I have had a few rounds do this very thing. It's not common and it doesn't ruin the vehicle, but it is something to keep in mind. The mantlet has a small, flat 250mm section and a well sloped 150mm top and bottom, covering an exceptionally large zero armor hole surrounded by more 350mm armor. The starboard cupola is 120mm, but well sloped and quite small. Turret sides are lightly sloped and range from quite strong to decent in three horizontal bands of armor measuring 185mm, 210mm, and 240mm (top to bottom). Overall the turret isn't as good as the IS-7's (what tank's is?), but it is still solid. The two things that most readily set the 260 apart from its sisters are the mobility and gun. The gun is somewhat akin to the IS-4's, save that it is much less clumsy and fires APCR primary. HEAT and HE are the same. The APCR has slightly lower effective penetration than the IS-4's AP round, but is 34% faster at 1,259 m/s. It's not quite tier 10 medium velocity, but it's markedly faster than any standard AP (and many premium APCR) round. Also, like tier 10 mediums, it has very low penetration dropoff of only 15mm. The best improvement is the handling. It blooms less and aims faster, more like an E5's gun than the IS-7's. Unfortunately you can only carry 30 rounds, and unlike the IS-7 there is no "strictly better" round, so you may find yourself out of the type of ammo you really want more often than other vehicles. I currently carry 20/8/2. Gun depression is -5° instead of the -6° of the IS-7 and IS-4. Not great, but workable. The reason I referenced the 110 earlier is, like the 110 vs the IS-3, the 260 trades the IS-7's raw damage for better DPM and more precision. The gun handling is sufficiently good that I have not mounted an EGLD on top of the Vstab, but rather vents. Optics could be useful as well. To taste, I suppose.
The most attractive part of the tank, I think, is the mobility. The terrain resistance values aren't stellar, but they're not the "shopping cart in the mud" values the IS-7 has, and you get an additional 14.3% horsepower, as much as the 50B, while weighing about 7 tons less than the IS-7. While the IS-7 requires a downhill slope, a good tailwind, and rocket assist to reach its top speed, the 260 will actually see the far side of 50 kph now and then. An IS-7 hull, even one slightly weakened, moving around at that speed is an intoxicating thing. I've always found it a cruel irony that the heavy capping the Soviet "speed" tree isn't fast, but manages to be better protected than the "armor" heavy (which is also not fast). The 260 is mobile enough, I venture to say, to deserve the "heavium" tag. It easily outstrips IS-7s and keeps pace with 50Bs.
Having had it for a couple months now I've had it used in both CW and tournaments to great effect. In CW it has run with Soviet mediums for extra muscle and armor, 50Bs for sustained firepower and armor, T110E5s for extra armor, and IS-7s for IS-7 things. In tournaments it's often used in place of an IS-7, as it is fast enough to not hold 50Bs back.
Pros
Cons
Is it a better IS-7/IS-4? - I don't think that's a good way to think about it. It's different enough from its sisters, trading some good traits for other good traits, that calling it a better or worse anything is insufficiently nuanced. If anything I would call it a tier 10 110, though there is difference enough to warrant an asterisk on that comparison.
Was it worth it? - I'm going to cop out on answering this. The value of your time and the enjoyment you'll get out of the vehicle are subjective measures, I can't decide that for you. I can say that I think the vehicle is solid and has use. It's not a useless crappy trinket like the Stug IV. For all the cash, XP, premium time, equipment, consumables, female crew members, and tanks I got, I would say the missions were worthwhile to me.
Obligatory .gif.

T-55A - Tier 9 Soviet German Medium

Not many surprises to be had here, it’s nearly identical to the T-54, but it accepts German crews.
The general trend is a T-54 that trades the glacis plate for slightly better gun stats and other improvements. I haven't done any sort of comprehensive mobility comparison, but the T-55A didn't feel sluggish. It shares the D-10T2C with 201mm AP penetration, which means the muzzle velocity is a bit low at 895 m/s, but not the end of the world.
It uses German crews, but Russian camo, and the carousel icon is a weird mix of Soviet and Chinese colors. Can't put any inscriptions on it, all the space is taken up by spotlights, toolboxes, poster tubes, etc.
Overall, pretty good. Not as good at bullying lower tiers, but still quite competitive. Not much more to say, mostly just a small variation on a well known vehicle. It does have better nuclear protection than the T-54, so that's a thing. I guess.
Pros
Cons

T28 HTC (Nexus One) - Tier 7 American Tank Destroyer

Probably the most unique of the four vehicles, the T28 HTC resembles an anti-tank bunker on tracks. It's not terribly fast, but it is markedly quicker than its tier 8 counterparts, you can actually break 20 kph! It is a casemate TD, but the comically wide traverse of 30° to either side can help compensate somewhat. Depression is less than spectacular, only -4°.
The cannon is a 105mm, with the traditional 320 damage but only 181/224mm penetration. This is not as good as the T29’s 105mm, but not crippling. Rate of fire is improved over the T29, making for decent sustained DPM. 320 damage a shot is quite dangerous to lower-tier vehicles.
Thanks to being tier 7 instead of 8, the armor on this T28 isn’t useless. The flat frontal plate is quite thick, and the sloped section, while thin, is extremely well-sloped. The MG mounts on either side are weak and should be hidden whenever possible. The cannon traverse range allows you to hide both of them while cornering. The roof, side, and rear armor is terrible, but as a casemate TD you were basically done if they shot you there anyway.
While not a spectacular vehicle, it occupies its own niche and is fairly enjoyable, even if you're like me and tend to dislike casemate TDs.

StuG IV - Tier 5 German Tank Destroyer

Take everything redeeming about the StuG III G and get rid of them, then bolt on some skirts so your tank looks like this spider. Congratulations on achieving your first branch of personal missions!
Armed with the 7.5cm L/48, a gun that makes the American 76mm M1A2 look good, this TD fails to impress in about any way. Get rolling on the T28 HTC, nothing to see here.

Personal Missions

I had something nice written up with the vehicle used for every mission I accomplished, then they up and changed the missions on me, so I’ll keep this more general. Will cover recommended vehicles, missions notable for frequent questions or difficulty, and miscellaneous notes. These are written with an eye towards the T-55A and Object 260 versions, as they are more difficult. Understand that certain characteristics may change at the lower levels.

General

If you need to do something to a target one or two tiers higher than you, keep in mind that tier 6 or 7 vehicles can platoon with pref 8 premiums for better target population.
If you need to shoot arty or lights, platoon with arty or lights. These two classes are somewhat balanced per team by the matchmaker.
If you don’t have a recommended vehicle you can try to substitute, but I make no promises. An ability and willingness to bring the best tool for the job will go a long way towards smoothing your path through the missions.
Turn on assault and encounter modes if you haven't already. They make some missions easier.

Light Tanks

Recommended Vehicles
For all missions that don’t require some thousands of spotting damage, I recommend using tier 6 or 7. The view range advantage that a T37 or Type 64 has over tier 6/7 heavies is just too great to ignore.
Platoon with artillery! If you need spotting damage or kills they are at your beck and call. Additionally, targets that go dark may still count for your spotting damage if the shooter fired before the target disappeared. Coordinate with your fire support! Mark the targets you know you’re spotting and use those new ribbons that pop up.
Buy camo paint. Unlike the camo net you don’t give up anything to do so, it’s a straight upgrade and can save your butt.
Play the map lottery. Spotting damage is more possible than you think, but there are going to be maps where it’s not realistic (hello Himmelsdorf). Redshire, Malinovka, and the Prokhorovkas are choice, but not the only possibility.
Notable missions
Since the re-organization there aren’t really many inordinately difficult light missions, though LT-9 can be frustrating. Use low tiers and wait for a map that allows you to rush to a spotting position at a choke point. Malinovka is a good example, I got LT-9.4 with 10 spots in the first couple minutes.

Medium Tanks

Recommended Vehicles
Notable Missions
MT-4 - Shots that immobilize a vehicle and then hit the hull count.
MT-9 - Platoon a tier 6/7 with a pref 8 to boost number of targets. T-34-85 recommended.
MT-11 - 3002 M or E-50.
MT-12 - R̵ͯ̾̈́̒̓ű͇̉̑n̼̜ͤ ͇̖̹̙̹̻͊̔͛̄͛͞f̲͖͍̠̻̫͔ͯa͖̱̲͍͓̯̓ͭr̠̞̜͇̰̃ͤ͠ ̪̗̫̜̺͔̿̾ḁ̢̫̹̺̙ͥͤͬn̡͈ͮͣ̃d̮̙͎̻͓̤ͩ̎̃ͬ̑̚ ̳͗ͤ͒́̈́f̴̄ͮ̄̐a͔̔̎̓͞ş̦̰̞ͯͦt͎̫̜̦̥̫ͫ̊̾̉ͦ,̮̪̞̫̠̹̟̾͂͆͛ ̠̗̞̝̺̅̓͋ͦͨ̍͠ͅf̶̒̓o̠̺͔͗̀͜ō̢͎͖͒̉̔ͧ͂l̑ͭ̄̔ͯ̇ͤ҉͉̮̙̭̞i̷̅́̂̆̑ͣs̮̗̹ͮͭ͆̐́ͦḣ̞̠̘̗̉͆ͤ ̘̲̫͍̹ͭͯͪ̃̂ḫ̿̚ú̮̤͚̹̀̅̄̍͝ͅm̰̙͎̩͓̬̏̔̄́̉̍͜ͅa̜͍̘̠̪ͥͫ̔̔̽n̙͉͔̈ͣ̇̆͟.̻̗̮̟ͩ̂̓̕ͅ You will hate this mission, or you’ll get it on the first try...twice in a row. It took me 100-200 matches for the T-55A and Object 260. Platoon a 6 or 7 with pref 8 to get upper-tier targets. Lower tiers are more flammable. A compromise between module damage and rate of fire is key, meaning the Comet is probably the single best vehicle to pick.
MT-15 - BatChat probably the best bet, it offers the most amount of damage on a particular target in the short available window, the ability to get to where that target is, and the ability to get out when you're done.

Heavy Tanks

Recommended Vehicles
Notable Missions
HT-4 - KV-2 HE. Laugh.
HT-7 - AMX 50B. Best way to reliably cause enough damage and then rack up the cap/defense points.
HT-9 - FCM or 50 100.
HT-12 - VK 4502 Ausf B. I cannot stress this enough. Why struggle when this tank lets you practically fall into the mission? HE impacts don’t count for damage. Track hits do if they continue on to bounce off the hull.
HT-15 - The lower versions can be done on damage alone, but when you hit 14k it’s much more feasible to rely on a combination of damage dealt, deflected, and received. I used the Maus each time.

Tank Destroyers

Recommended Vehicles
TD-2 - FV215b 183
TD-4 - This mission is bugged in an unknown manner. Being unspotted is not a requirement.
TD-6 - Highest tier you have w/ APCR rounds (for muzzle velocity)
TD-8 - Hellcat
TD-10 - Same as TD-4
TD-15 - Highest tier you have that you’re comfortable and competent in. I used the 263.

Artillery

Note: I didn’t do the Object 260 artillery missions.
Recommended Vehicles
SPG-11 - T92/CGC
SPG-15 - Recommend tier 8/9 vehicle, hit the softest up-tier targets you can. Any lower and you may not hit minimum damage, any higher you have an XP penalty.
TTT Repo
submitted by StranaMechty to WorldofTanks [link] [comments]

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