Horse Racing Results | Today's OTB Results - Horse Betting
- Horse Racing Results | Today's OTB Results - Horse Betting
- Triple Crown schedule 2020: Dates, order, results for
- Preakness Stakes 2020 | Your Official Betting Guide by
- The Preakness 2019 Odds: Expert picks, favorites, draw
- Preakness Stakes - Best Odds & Predictions for Preakness 2020
Preview of the Jim Dandy Stakes and more
Saturday July 27, 2019 Saratoga Race Course Race: 9 (5:44 PM EST Post) Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes Mitole submitted by aspen222 to horseracing [link] [comments]
really needs no introduction as he has been taking the sport by storm of late. The son of Eskendereya has rattled seven straight, clear cut wins including back to back Grade: 1’s in his last two. This bay colt has recorded splits and final times that are off the charts good and consistent. Note the last seven speed figures as well as they range from 103 to 108. No way I try to beat him until he start showing some kinks in his armor…………………….The speedy Strike Power
is clearly at his best game (sprinting) in this spot. After this big chestnut toyed with mid level optionals two back, he blew out of the gate, set a hot early pace and only one of the best horses in training today (Catalina Cruiser) was able to gun him down late. The slight cut back in distance should only help him here. Don’t worry about his one try over this surface being a bad one, his rider that day was on some kind of kamikaze mission as he forced this horse to run a :21.1 opening quarter mile. Between this horse, and the top pick, there might an interesting battle for early supremacy…………………………… Those of you who know me know I like Imperial Hint
. This now six year old “little guy” is a running fool while winning 12 of 21 career starts. The problem is, after three straight defeats, are his best days behind him? I mean, his form *is\
* showing a noticeable downward trend………………………..Honorable Mentions
: Diamond Oops
might quietly be sitting on a big one at what will probably be some long odds too. This son of Lookin’ at Lucky has cycled back into top form and looked good coming from behind to take down a Grade: 3 at Gulfstream last time out. With a plethora of speed to his inside, stretch runners like him are always dangerous in these kinds situations………………….If Belmont surface lover Firenze Fire
couldn’t handle Mitole at Belmont Park, how will he handle him at ‘Toga? I don’t know… but he has run well, including back to back “trips” speed figures in his last two, so he deserves a “mention”…………….Mr. Crow
looks overmatched in this spot but I did notice he is 2 for 4 at ‘Toga and 2 for 10 everywhere else. Race: 10 (6:18 PM EST Post) Bowling Green Stakes
These marathon turf races are getting tougher and tougher to figure as the same group appears in the entry box and they take turns beating each other, with the winner (like normal) being the one who gets the best trip. I don’t know about you, but I’m treading lightly in this WIDE open contest. That said, I’m taking Yo Primo
, who is another in a looooong line of runners Chad Brown brings in from other parts of the world, for several reasons. First off, you get the “fresh face” angle. Now tack on first time Lasix angle, the fact he is 5 for 9 in his home country of Chile (including four Group: 1 wins), he’s been lighting up stop watches in the mornings since his arrival, and note the final times of his last two starts/wins. 10 furlongs in 1:56.3? 12 furlongs in 2:24 flat? Those are stone cold racehorse times and if he duplicates either of those races in this spot, he’ll be long gone in the stretch………………..Arklow
just missed in the Grade: 1 Man O’ War and in the Grade: 2 Belmont Derby in his last two. This stretch runner from the Brad Cox barn should be coming late once again here………………….13 time and multiple Graded Stakes winner Bigger Picture
is a threat in just about any turf race he runs in. Still another who should be coming late………………….Honorable Mentions
(and there are several due to the depth of this field): Zulu Alpha
has won five of his last 10 races and just missed in the Grade: 1 United Nations at Monmouth last time out. This six year old gelding made a brazen, three wide move on the turn but was gunned down in deep stretch by a long-shot winner. Could be tough with a better timed move by his (new) rider……………….I love Sadler’s Joy
heroic, late running moves. He habitually comes from 8, 10, 12 sometimes 14 lengths out of it early but always makes it interesting late. Although he’ll be making his first start in almost nine months it must be noted he has run big off layoffs several times in the past…………………….Channel Maker
won this race last year and likes this turf course but is a little too inconsistent for my liking……………………..Did Highland Sky
’s late running, wide tripped, close up third in his last signal some kind of return to form?.........................Argonne
has won three straight vs. lesser. Steps up and stretches out but, with so many late runners in this field, he could be a menace late if left alone on an uncontested early lead. Race: 11 (6:51 PM EST Post) Jim Dandy Stakes Global Campaign
is three for four in his career and was nothing short of brilliant in winning the Peter Pan Stakes last time out. This son of Curlin stalked a strong early pace, took over at the quarter pole, opened up on the field at that point and held sway late, beating eventual Belmont Stakes winner Sir Winston in the process. Note the internal and final fractions of that race as they included a :48.2 middle half mile and a :12.1 final furlong. Having not run in two months, he should be a fresh horse and trainer Stanley Hough, who is no babe in the woods, should have him ready to fire……………………..I’m not sure if it was the 12 furlongs or the fact that Preakness winner War Of Will
, who has had a tough campaign thus far in 2019, is showing signs of fatigue, to explain his disappointing effort in the Belmont Stakes last time out. Either way, although it might prove futile, I’m going to try to beat him here. One last thing, he has physically looked like a million bucks training for about the last week or 10 days……………….Tacitus
is a gorgeous and well bred son of Tapit who possesses a good late run, one that he has used to win the Wood Memorial, finish third in the Derby and second in the (nightmare tripped) Belmont Stakes. This gray colt sports a record of 6-3-1-1 in his career and is a must use in any exotics betting scenario…………………………..Honorable Mentions
: After winning the inaugural Oaklawn Park Invitational while getting the last furlong in about :12 seconds flat, Laughing Fox
quietly made of the most impressive mid race moves I’ve seen all year in the Preakness Stakes, totally outrunning his almost 22-1 odds in the process. This $375,000 son of Union Rags was near last and some 25 lengths off the early pace that day but methodically starting “picking off” horses one by one down the backside, swung wide on the turn for home and finished full of run to check in fifth. Note, at the end of the day, he was beaten less than four lengths. Making up some 21 lengths, especially in classic race, deserves attention…………………..Although running a very, very respectable fourth, Tax
found the 12 furlongs of the Belmont Stakes a little too much to handle. Colt by Arch cuts back to a more reasonable distance here and could be a menace………………………..Mihos
is not as bad as his last race or two would indicate. Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Race: 8 (8:30 PM EST Post) Bing Crosby Stakes Cistron
blew the doors off of his competition in his return to the dirt while wiring the field in the Kona Gold two starts back. I know that this five year old, by the ridiculously fast The Factor, blew a three length lead at the top of the stretch in his last but it must be noted he set a supersonic early pace that day and that race was also at seven furlongs. Logically, the cut back to six furlongs plays right into his lap. Big work last week should have him “revved up” for this………………..Recruiting Ready
has taken on some crack sprinters back on the East Coast, including the super-fast World Of Trouble and (getting beat by a half a length to) Catalina Cruiser his last time out. He will meet no such rivals here and figures bang up here, especially if he can adapt to the vastly different West Coast race tracks…………………. Jalen Journey
won three straight vs. lesser before being nailed on the wire by Diamond Oops in the Grade: 3 Smile Sprint at Gulfstream last time out. It’ll be interesting to see if he can hold his form with a trainer change and a move to the West Coast………………..Honorable Mentions
: Chief Cicatriz
is a win machine as his 10 for 15 career record would indicate. However, this six year old son of Munnings will be swimming in much deeper waters here………………………Air Strike
pulled a 12-1 upset when running down my top pick last time out. This son of Street Sense was 0 for his last 5 heading into that race and, although he might run well in this spot, I doubt he does it again.
By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
2019- Record: 45-128 = 35%
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%
Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** Trainer Shug McGaughey said Code of Honor
who will bypass the Grade 2, $600,000 Jim Dandy Stakes, will train up to the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers on August 24.
Owned by William S. Farish, Code of Honor was a recent winner of the Grade 3 Dwyer, following his second-place result in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby.
“I haven't decided, still on the fence,” McGaughey said. “He's made great progress here in the last few days and I'm probably leaning more towards the Travers as opposed to running in both, just to give him more time in between races.”
**** Omaha Beach
recorded his first work at Del Mar after being sidelined due to an entrapped epiglottis.
The handsome son of War Front went three furlongs in :36 3/5 Tuesday with Alex Solis aboard
"Everything's healed up and he's back in good shape," trainer Richard Mandella said. "Had a very nice first work today, :36 and a little change, and he galloped out (four furlongs) in :49. We scoped him afterwards and the throat looked good, so we couldn't be happier."
Del Mar's Aug. 25 Shared Belief Stakes, run at a mile for 3-year-olds, is a possible comeback spot for Omaha Beach.
My Bets For Belmont Day 2019
I will pass on the first race. Simply don't see anything I like. submitted by hodsct59 to horseracing [link] [comments]
2nd Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YO & Up--- Purse $90,000--- 1 1/4 Mile Inner Turf:
In this race, you should give it your best shot, as I have no clue who will win. Most of these trainers are better known as steeplechase trainers and a lot of hurdles horses turns to steeplechase after disappointing as thoroughbreds.
9)Uncle Artie(9-2) looks like the most likely win candidate against these. He has limited opportunities on grass but each one is a slight improvement over his previous. And he sports the best flats trainer in the race.
7)Azzedine(20-1) form looks terrible but he has a trainer that has won a G1 on the grass at 1 1/4 mile at Belmont(Manhattan H) in his 1st start after an 11 month break, beating Multiple G1 winner and turf champion Gio Ponti at 24-1. His last start before that break, he came within a neck of beating Gio Ponti at 53-1 in the G1 Man Of War at 1 3/8 miles. Shows how up for grabs this race is when you have to resort to a 8% lifetime winning trainer to find any type of play.
4)No Mans Land(2-1) is one who has a steeplechase trainer, but he seems to struggle on the flats. However, the horse pedigree suggests he will be around at the end.
6)Tolaga Bay(15-1) was my original choice but red flags went up when I saw his jockey wins at a mighty 5% and his trainer has a pretty impressive hurdles record but very little on his flats training.
I will probably end up passing this race and concentrate on races I like better.
Race 3: Easy Goer S----- 3 YOs---- Purse $150,000--- 1 1/16 Miles:
6)Always Mining(6-5) is the controlling speed in this race. I will toss his last as none in here has shown any ability to beat G1 types yet.
2) Dream Maker(6-1) is my choice to finish 2nd. He looks like he is returning to form after being off form and/or over matched in most of his races.
4)Outshine(9-5) is my choice for 3rd. He returns to what should be his best distance. However, he beat very little in his two wins and possibly the only decent horse he has finished in front off is Win Win Win, who now looks like he was knock off form when setting the track record at TB in his first start of the year(ran 3 fairly poor races since that effort with his 3rd behind this one being his best effort).
3)Grumps Little Tots(12-1) is my choice for 4th. Toss his last as he was eliminated at the start and he looks most eligible to jump up and improve. Irad Ortiz decided to take the mount.
Ex Box 2-6, Tri Box 2-4-6, .10 Super Box 2-3-4-6, Super Key 6 with 2-3-4 with 2-3-4 with 2-3-4.
Race 4: Just A Game(G1)--- 4 YO & Up Fillies & Mares--- 1 Mile Turf:
7) Got Stormy(6-1) is my choice to win. I have to bet her back because she ran a superb race at 12-1 in her last but got caught late by Beau Recall(10-1), costing me at least a $35K P5 and 3K P4 on Ky Derby Day(last leg of both a P5 & P4 and I had $12 & $8 invested in each with her keyed). Oh well, it happens. She has ran twice against the heavy favorite, finishing 1 and 1 1/2 lengths behind while the favorite enjoyed the better post positions both times for the grass course they were racing on. It should be equal today.
1)Daddy Is A Legend(6-1) is my choice for second. She has raced 4 times against the favorite, all while carry equal weight with her but enjoys an 8 lb swing Saturday. Her best chance to get by the favorite will be late in the running.
4)Rushing Falls(4-5) has done nothing wrong and rightfully deserves to be odds on in here. However, I have seen enough races that I know the best times to beat a heavy favorite is when others think they can not be beat(better known as over confidence). And she could possibly provide those who are looking with a bridge jumping opportunity(it occurs most often in NY, though I haven't seen one there lately).
5)Carla Temptress(20-1) will be my choice to finish 4th. She probably needed her first start in almost 6 months in her last. She was primed for an upset of the favorite at Saratoga last year, but caught a yielding turf course, making it impossible for anyone to run her down, though she tried valiantly.
Bets: WP 7, Ex Box 1-7, Tri Box 1-4-7, .10 Super Box 1-4-5-7, Super Key 7 with 1-4-5 with 1-4-5 with 1-4-5.
Race 5: Ogden Phipps(G1)-- 4 YO & Up Fillies & Mares--- Purse $700,000-- 1 1/16 Mile:
1)Come Dancing(6-5) is my choice, though I will pass the race. Her works and the improvement she has shown in her last few starts, at least to me, makes her to one to run down late.
2)Midnight Bisou(1-1) should make a valiant effort but the top choice will have to be ran down, as she will not come back to the field.
6) Mopotism(15-1) has a chance to finish second but more likely third is more reasonable place to put her.
Race 6: Jaipur Invitational(G1)--- 4 YO & Up--- Purse $400,000--- 6 Furlongs Turf:
5) Diamond Oops(30-1) will be my choice to spring the upset. He is coming out of a race where the winner is faster early on grass than the heavy favorite in here has ever ran, the perfect prep. I also thinks his bloodlines fits this distance and surface. Best of all, Mike Smith has accepted the mount, something he no longer does unless he or his agent thinks the horse is live.
2) Om(8-1) will be my choice to finish second. Om ran 2nd in the 2016 BC Turf Sprint, beaten a nose, while coming from last and having to weave his way through traffic to Obviously, making the last start of his career. He made his first start of the year in his last and after prompting the pace, flatten out late. That race should make him fit and ready to run big in here.
8)World Of Trouble(1-1) looks to be the only real speed again. But with the exception of the BC Turf Sprint where he caught a yielding course that flatters his running style, his trainer has picked easy fields for him to beat up on. This is by far the toughest field he will have faced on a firm turf. Ripe for an upset!
9) Wild Shot(30-1) will be my choice to finish fourth. I have been wondering if he would get the opportunity to show what he can do on the grass. After all, Ranter is a 1/2 sister to Pulpit and technically a full sister to Tale Of The Cat(same sire and full sisters as dams), whose foals are much better on grass than dirt. His form looks poor because he was tried on dirt against good horses for so long, but his only win against winners came in the Pat Day Mile on a wet fast(yeah right?) track, usually a good indication a horse will like the grass. Workout on grass noted.
Bets: WP 5, Ex Box 2-5, Tri Box 2-5-8, .10 Super Box 2-5-8-9, Super Key 5 with 2-8-9 with 2-8-9 with 2-8-9, Super Key 2 with 5-8-9 with 5-8-9 with 5-8-9.
Race 7: Acorn Stakes(G1) ---- 3 YO Fillies --- Purse $700,000--- 1 Mile:
7) Guarana(2-1) is my choice to win. Yes, she has only one race where she demolished a maiden field in good time. But her sire is Ghostzapper and her 2nd dam is Pleasant Home, who shocked the 2005 BC Distaff by coming from last and blowing by the field to win by 9+ lengths in good time at odds of 30-1. Beating a true G1 field is a tough task in 2nd lifetime start, but her bloodlines suggests she should be up to the challenge.
6)Proud Emma(20-1) is my choice for second. She caught the slop in her last and while she gave a valiant effort, she really had no shot at catching the runaway winner. She adds blinkers for this test and I always take notice of good works between races and she has two, indicating she should still be sharp.
4)Bell's The One(20-1) looked pretty good beating my second choice in her last, but that was in the slop which can eschewed the results. Not sure if she wants to go a mile, though her bloodlines suggests it is within her scope. However, I find it tough to completely omit her based on her races and will make her my third choice.
1)Serengeti Express(5-2) will be my 4th choice. She is the class of the field, but is known for being inconsistent. Which one will show up this weekend? Regardless, she will have company early and she has never rated or been in a speed duel, which can make what looks like a super horse into an average one.
Bets: Ex Box 6-7, Tri Box 4-6-7, .10 Super Box 1-4-6-7, Super Key 7 with 1-4-6 with 1-4-6 with 1-4-6.
Race 8: Woody Stephens(G1)--- 3 YOs --- Purse $400,000--- 7 Furlongs:
11) Wendell Fong(10-1) will be my choice to win. He has won 3 of 4 of his starts with his only loss against Alwaysmining. 2 Goods works since his last signals he has kept his conditioning and should produce his best run.
1)Honest Mischief(6-1)is my choice for second. He broke his maiden in his 2nd and last start like a horse that has some serious talent. In his first start, he was given an over confident ride(per chart comment) moved into the lead much too soon and ended up getting caught to finish 2nd. Sire is Into Mischief, a top sire but his dam is Honest Lady, a 1/2 sister to Empire Maker, and she was narrowly beaten in both the 2000 G1 Metropolitan H & G1 BC Sprint against the boys.
6) Nitrous(10-1) is my choice for third. He looks like he is starting to mature into the runner his bloodlines suggest he could be with racing experience. The pace should be lively in here and he has a chance to take another step forward.
3)Borracho(15-1) is my choice for 4th. He will still back and make one run as he has in most of his races. Throw his two 1 1/16 races out which his bloodlines suggests will not be his best distance and you see a horse who tries hard since he got a couple of races experience. His last two works are fast best works of the day and he looks ready to run his best race yet.
Bets: WP 11, Ex Box 1-11, Tri Box 1-6-11, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-11, Super Key 11 with 1-3-6 with 1-3-6 with 1-3-6, Super Key 1 with 3-6-11 with 3-6-11 with 3-6-11.
Race 9: Metropolitan H(G1)-- 3 YO & Up--- $1,200,000--- 1 Mile:
6) Promises Fulfill(12-1) is my choice to Win His last was simply a tighter to get him ready for the race his connections really wants. I simply believe no one can go with him early and have enough left to win any race and he will not stop if you try to sit behind him and wait for him to. The major difference between 3 and 4 year old years is good horses mature and become the best they can be.
5)Tale Of Silence(30-1) is my choice for second. He will sit back early and make a run for a serious share but I doubt if he is good enough to chase down my top choice, but he will try. His trainer has spent two months trying to get him in peak conditioning and it looks like he is ready, going by his last 2 works.
2) McKinzie(5-2) is my choice for third. He is in a dilemma of sorts. Does he pressure the top choice early and hope he can get by late or does he sit a couple of lengths back and watch the top choice win for fun? He is the key to the results of this race. If he does the former, I believe he will tire late and open the place spot up for a big odds horse.
4) Thunder Snow(5-1) is my choice for fourth. He does not have enough speed to challenge the top choice early, so I believe he will sit a few lengths behind a hot pace and try in vain to score an upset.
Bets: WP 6, Ex Box 5-6, Tri Box 2-5-6, .10 Super 2-4-5-6, Super Key 5 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6.
Race 10: Manhattan(G1)--- 4 YO & Up--- Purse $1,000,000--- 1 1/4 Mile Inner Turf:
5) Channel Cat(20-1) is my choice to win. He made one start this year and probably needed that start, especially since the course was listed as soft. Trainer removes blinkers for this test and he has 3 pretty good works since that effort, indicating he got something from that first effort of the year. With his solid bloodlines that suggests he is a perfect fit for this distance, definitely will take a shot.
4) Qurbaan(8-1) is my choice for second. He drew the rail at CD on their grass course on a good turf against the heavy favorite in here in their last start and it is the worse place to start from on that course and still managed to finish a close second. Now he gets the more favorable post on this course and has a real shot to turn the tables on the heavy favorite.
8) Bricks And Mortar(7-5) deserves to be the favorite but he does not tower over this field like his earnings suggest. I believe he will put in his late run but this is his sternest test this year. Therefore, while it would not surprise me to see him win, I will use him in the third slot to get him in my tri box.
3)Robert Bruce(6-1) will be my choice to finish 4th. He started in the same race as my top choice and he too was probably in need of a race. However, it is rare to see Brown work any horse so hard, especially a grass horse, so I will presume he feels the horse needs a little more conditioning to get to his fittest level. However, his works since his last also indicates, to me at least, that Brown thinks he is ready and is more in line with the works he usually puts his trainees through. After taking another look, I will keep most of my bets the same, but I will key this one on top of my bigger super.
Bets: WP 5, Ex Box 4-5, Tri Box 4-5-8, .10 Super box 3-4-5-8, Super Key 3 with 4-5-8 with 4-5-8 with 4-5-8.
11th Race: Belmont S(G1)--- 3 Yo--- Purse $1,500,000--- 1 1/2 Mile:
First, I will mention that I do not like 10)Tacitus(9-5) in this race at all. He passed four horses in the Ky Derby in the stretch(the three that got the unofficial winner taken down and Improbable). His bloodlines suggests he will not want to go this far. He sports the same fifth dam(Best In Show) as the second choice in here(War Of Will). The difference is starting with his dam and broodmare sire, his female family is heavily slant towards sprint distances. War Of Will, however, has more horses that preferred distances over sprints. If either of these beats me, all I can say it is not the first time I have been wrong and probably wouldn't be the last time. But I make money paying attention to detail and Tacitus, especially does not fit.
7)Sir Winston(12-1) is my choice for the upset. Like most horse who started their careers in Canadian, he found that the US are slightly tougher to beat. But he has gained experience with each start and has actually improved every race except the Blue Grass S but that race was ran on a track that gave front runners a huge advantage and he got caught up in trouble nearing the stretch and packed it in. So, to me, that race is a toss out and he fits good against these, based on his other U.S. starts.
4)Tax (15-1) is my choice for second. I simply think he did not care for the off track but he also reportedly came out of that race with a bruised foot. He has worked twice since being given a few weeks to heal up and while not as fast as his works pre derby, it should be enough to have him ready. His pedigree suggests he will tun all day and he has the tactical speed that wins most Belmont S. Probably the best bred horse for distance dirt in the race.
9) War Of Will(2-1) will be my choice for third. He did not show a public work before the Preakness and he does not show one since then either. Works keeps a horse fit and the public inform about how they are doing, but I can not accept low odds when I can only guess if he is doing good, regardless of what a trainer is saying or implying.
5) Bourbon War(12-1)will be my choice for fourth. I will throw his Preakness run out for two reasons. First, he was experiencing blinkers for the first time and second and most importantly, if you did not spend the majority of the race near the rail, then you had no shot to impact the Preakness. The first five finishers spent a majority of the race near the rail. Those that moved out too soon faded. The removal of blinkers and a nice work since indicates he might have a surprise for non believers. Actually, I will probably move him up into my tri box and just use War Of Will in the super.
Bets: WP 7, Ex Box 4-7, Tri Box 4-5-7, .10 Super Box 4-5-7-9, Super Key 7 with 4-5-9 with 4-5-9 with 4-5-9.
Race 12: Allowance O/C $62,500---- 3 YO & Up--- Purse $95,000--- 1 1/8 Mile Inner Turf:
5) Near Gold(8-1) is my choice to win. He will be making his U.S. debut in this race after starting his career in France. His sire, Dansili, ran 3rd in the BC Turf Mile but is probably better known over here as sire of Flintshire, 2nd twice in the BC Turf. However, Near Gold's dam, Neartica, is a 1/2 sister to Goldikova, a three time winner of the BC Turf Mile. While his trainer has only started a few horses in her career, her % will rise if she keeps getting horses bred like this one to train. Nice workout pattern for first start indicates she might know a little bit more than her winning % suggests so far.
1)Prioritize(7-2) is my choice to finish 2nd. He has ran against the best fields in his short career and is the one to beat. He ran an even race in his first start this year which should have been expected since he was off for six months. With that tightener and his works since, he should run a much improved race.
10) Bird's Eye View(6-1) is my choice for third. He should enjoy the cut back in distance and should be nearing his peak conditioning. He has spent most of his career going slightly longer but his pedigree suggest it might be just a shade too long. Nine furlongs looks like the perfect fit.
9)Holiday Bonus(15-1) is my choice for 4th. He has one second in seven starts this year, in his first start of the year. He has been off form or raced in too high of class for him. In his last, he was entered back into the class of his last win and showed speed before tiring in the stretch to run 4th in a yielding turf at 1 1/4 mile. Like my third choice, he is cutting back to a distance that should be more to his liking.
Bets: WP 5, Ex Box 1-5, Tri Box 1-5-10, .10 Super Box 1-5-9-10, Super Key 5 with 1-9-10 with 1-9-10 with 1-9-10.
13th Race: Brooklyn Invitational(G2)--- 4 YO & Up--- Purse $400,000--- 1 1/2 Mile:
6)Rocketry(7-2) is my choice to win. He has started twice this year. He ran a flat race in his first start and then finished 2nd in a 5 horse field at a distance that was a little short for him. Now he moves closer to a distance he has ran his best race in and he should be able to pick up his first win this year, especially since there is more pace signed up for this test.
9)Forewarned(30-1) is my choice to finish 2nd. He looks on paper like he has no chance, but his trainer took another horse with close to the same ability named Discreet Lover and kept trying him against top horses in NY, including placing in several graded stakes before finally blowing up the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup with a win at 45-1 late last year, beating horses like Diversify, Mendelssohn, and Thunder Snow. He has three extremely fast bullets and one near bullet work since his last start. And this field is weak compared to most G2 races, as my top choice shows the only G2 win and my 3rd choice has a G3 win showing on their past performances.
2)Campaign(7-2) is my choice for third. as mentioned above, this horse is the only other horse that has a G3 win showing on his past performance and that came in his last start. A bullet work and a 2nd best work, both at 6 furlongs, and three easier works since his last start indicates he is ready to take another step forward. I believe he represents the biggest threat to my top choice.
1)Marconi(9-2) is my choice for 4th. He has won his last two against easier in listed stakes but this represents a pretty steep move up in class in most cases but not so much with this field. However, what I like most about him is he is lightly race and there is still room for improvement as he gains more experience.
Bets: Ex Box 6-9, Tri Box 2-6-9, .10 Super Box 1-2-6-9, Super Key 6 with 1-2-9 with 1-2-9 with 1-2-9.
Previews of the Gotham Stakes; Tampa Bay Derby and more
submitted by aspen222 to horseracing [link] [comments]
Needless to say, this weekend is jam packed with big races all over the country….. But it could have been a lot bigger.
With the blockbuster news that Santa Anita Park has been closed “indefinitely” due to an alarming 21st horse suffering a life ending injury during a training session four major races won’t be run this weekend.
Affectionately known as “the Big ‘Cap”, the Santa Anita Handicap, a major three year old Kentucky Derby prep race, the San Felipe Stakes, the Grade: 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile and the San Carlos for sprinters were all slated to be run and will be rescheduled.
This statement was released last Tuesday at 10:15PM: “The Stronach Group announced the closure of Santa Anita Park for live racing and training effective immediately while the one mile main track undergoes additional extensive testing. All stakes races scheduled for this upcoming weekend, including the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap, the Grade II San Felipe and the Grade II San Carlos will be rescheduled. “The safety, health and welfare of the horses and jockeys is our top priority,” said Tim Ritvo, Chief Operating Officer, The Stronach Group. “While we are confident further testing will confirm the soundness of the track, the decision to close is the right thing to do at this time”. The additional testing of the track will be led by veteran Trackman Dennis Moore, expanding on the ground radar testing conducted earlier this week by the University of Kentucky's Dr. Mick Peterson. Measures will include utilizing an Orono Biomechanical Surface Tester, a device that mimics the impacts of a horse running at full gallop allowing engineers to see how the track holds up. These test results will be evaluated to ensure track consistency and uniformity for both training and racing. Further, The Stronach Group will be conducting a comprehensive evaluation of all existing safety measures and current protocols.
This decision comes a little late. In all my 40 years of being involved in this sport, I can’t recall a time where 21 horses have lethally broken down in such a short, 10 week time span.
I’ve been to Santa Anita several times in the past year. I walked the upper stretch, the surface seems fine.
The whole situation is both tragic and baffling. The only thing I can come up with is the weather, as I’m not sure the Santa Anita surface was designed to stand up to it. Los Angeles and surrounding areas have been pounded with rain over the last several weeks and the temperatures are much lower than normal. Past that, I am very curious to see what these tests show.
With the cancellation of those races, the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and the Tampa Bay Derby at, you guessed it, Tampa Bay Downs, will be our highlighted races of the week.
Other races we will be examining include the Honey Bee Stakes at Oaklawn Park and the Busher at Aqueduct, both for three year old fillies.
Lastly, and although I’m not a big fan of the synthetic racing surface, we will be looking at the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park for three year old males.
Aqueduct Racetrack Race: 10 (5:09 PM EST Post) Gotham Stakes
Although there are several “play against” angles in regards to the very highly touted Instagrand
, I can’t seem to pull the trigger in doing so. The $1.2 million son of Into Mischief will be making his first start in almost seven months. Will he be ready? How will he ship across the country? How will he handle going from 70 degrees in Southern California to Queens, New York where it’s expected to be in the low 40’s? How will he handle the surface change? And of course, how will he handle the mile distance when he’s never been over three quarters? I mentioned last week that Hidden Scroll was the most intriguing horse on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. If Hidden Scroll was #1, this colt is easily #2. The decision to come here was sheer brilliance by trainer Jerry Hollendorfer as he gets away from what is right now a dangerous surface and two dangerous horses in Game Winner and Improbable. It makes all the sense in the world that if you’re going to ask a horse to stretch out, why not do it at a one turn mile against what is clearly inferior competition and over a safer track? All that said, I still have no idea how good he is. He absolutely destroyed maidens in his debut and his rivals in the Grade: 2 Best Pal Stakes last summer while winning each race by 10 lengths. He’s been working well so he should be ready but remember the ultimate goal is the first Saturday in May, not the first Saturday in March. Past that, I’ll throw in my “eye test” angle as he was jaw dropping good last year and one more little tidbit. The talk around the Hollendorfer barn is they are putting this horse in the same league as the ill-fated Shared Belief. That, readers, is an enormous
compliment…………......…….Based off his Grade: 1 win last year and his strong performance in winning the Jerome last time out, Mind Control
is most likely the best three year old in New York. This handsome colt by Stay Thirsty has won three of his last four races and seems to be coming into this race in good shape. "Everything has gone according to plan. For the most part, he hasn't missed a beat. He's filled out, he's stronger, and his works have been well within himself. He couldn't be doing any better going into the Gotham," trainer Greg Sacco said………………………Haikai
is a neck shy of being unbeaten in three starts including gamely winning the $150,000 Jimmy Winfield on this track last time out and scoring higher speed figures than Mind Control…must be considered in this spot……………………….Honorable Mentions
: I really liked Not That Brady
’s last three races, which consisted of two large margin wins vs. NYSB and super game second to Tax in the Withers Stakes. Chestnut gelding by Big Brown set the pace in the Withers, was passed by Tax, but lowered his head, dug in and fought back valiantly in the process. The cutback in distance should only help him in this spot and he could easily better this rating…………………..Much Better
is a speedy, $600,000 son of Pioneerof the Nile from the Bob Baffert barn who ran huge vs. Gunmetal Gray in the Sham Stakes in January and whistled home (6 ½ furlong in 1:15.3) three in front vs. high level optionals last time out….should come out running in this spot and could be a menace………………..What do you do with Knicks Go
? On one hand he is a Grade: 1 winner and was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall, but on the other hand, albeit with excuses, he showed little in last two races. (My Play: .50 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost $30.00)
Race: 11 Busher Stakes (5:40 PM EST Post)
Like Instagrand in the Gotham, Please Flatter Me
is hard to go against in this spot. Filly by Munnings, who the owners paid $12,000 for but she has already made more than 12 times that amount, has won all three career starts “on the engine” and by a combined 18 ¼ lengths including two Stakes races. I also the liked the fact that, after ripping through the first half mile of her last, she came home the last furlong in a solid :12.3. This speedster will be stretching out in distance, stepping up in class and drew towards the outside. However, drawing the outside becomes somewhat neutralize in a one turn, mile race and she shows a pair of monster works recently….should make every pole a winning one here………………….Play “Pin the Tail on the Donkey” with the rest of this field as they are difficult to separate. ….I’ll take a shot with the well bred Always Shopping
to fill out the exacta. This good looking filly, by Awesome again out of the Grade: 1 Stakes placed Stopshoppingmaria, has methodically improved through each of her four career starts, highlighted by winning the Busanda Stakes on this oval last time out………………….Espresso Shot
is 5-2-1-1 in her career and running very well in her last two on this track, including beating a restricted Stakes field in her last. Although it took her a very pedestrian :26.3 seconds to get the final quarter mile in that race, you must note that race was in the mud. If you go back to her previous race, note how she was charging hard, late to grab second in a fairly quickly run six furlong race. A fast track and a mile distance looks to be exactly what the Doctor ordered for her here……………………….Honorable Mentions
sports a 4-2-2-0 record, has speed, draws the rail and wired a Stakes field on this oval last time out. All that said, she’s faced Please Flatter Me twice recently and has been beaten by a combined (almost) 10 lengths………………………I hate to put Oxy Lady
this far down, I really do as this might come back to bite me. This filly Oxbow ran the best race of her life in her one and only try on this surface and had legitimate excuses in her two races since (overmatched in the Grade: 1 Starlet at Los Al, yet she was only beaten by less than three lengths and probably needed her wide tripped, Rachel Alexandra Stakes effort in her last). Of course, having Castellano in the irons won’t hurt her chances either. Bottom line here is she could easily outrun this rating………………..If you want to think outside the box a little, take a look at the cleverly named Filly Joel
, who has shown improved speed for trainer “Rudy Rod” in her last three races and cuts back in distance for this race. (My Play: .50 Trifecta box using the top 5. Cost: $30.00)
Tampa Bay Downs Race: 11 (5:25 PM EST Post) Tampa Bay Derby Win Win Win
ran one of the better races by a three year old on the Road to the Kentucky Derby when he pulverized the field in the Pasco Stakes last time out. The colt by Hat Trick shattered the track record for seven furlongs when he stopped the clock in 1:20.4, which is almost unheard of for a surface that is so deep and sometimes quirky. He’s been training lights out since (49 days), signaling to me another big effort is upcoming. Although he’ll be trying a route of ground and two turns for the first time, I’m not real worried about it as a) he showed me no signs he was “done” late in the Pasco Stakes. In fact, he was moving very well in the last three furlongs, which he got in a very good :36.2, including the last furlong in :12.1 and b) note, both his grandsires were Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners, so he certainly has the bloodlines for more distance……………………The 123 days off that Dream Maker
received evidently did him a world of good. Colt by super sire Tapit decimated a field of optional NW1X in his 2019 debut at the Fair Grounds while winning by 8 ½ lengths under very little pressure from his rider. Bottom line here is he looks to be the biggest threat to my top pick in this spot…………………………………I like Zenden
in this spot too, but what’s up with his three career races being spaced so far apart? Makes me wonder. Anyway, this chestnut colt by Fed Biz won his first two career starts, with one being a minor Stakes race, before chasing (second) the talented Call Paul in his last in the Grade: 3 Swale Stakes at GP. He ran well that day being it was his first start in almost two months and Call Paul is a runner. That race should set him up very well in this spot and his past races and running style suggest he won’t have a problem with the route distance either………………………Honorable Mentions
: Well Defined
pulled off a 7-1, coast to coast upset in the Sam F Davis last time out, so he certainly merits attention. That said, a few things trouble me about him. One, he was all alone on an uncontested lead in the Sam Davis and I doubt that happens again in this spot. Two, he has a hard time putting wins back to back. Three, his recent works since have been….meh….ok, I guess………………......Outshine
is a $625,000 son of Malibu Moon who closed late to win two of his first three starts, including his 2019 debut on Feb 10. He recorded a monster work last week at Palm Beach Downs and he should appreciate the stretch out in distance here………………………….Just a few other side notes about this race
: Although he finished off the board, Sir Winston
didn’t run all that bad in his return to the dirt surface for the first time since June in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in his last…….........Tacitus
is clearly one of the best bred horses in training today being by Tapit out of five time Grade: 1 winner Close Hatches and he goes first time Lasix here……….Lastly, if you are looking for a long-shot, take a look at Dunph
, who has run very well in three of his five career starts and had legitimate excuses in the other two. (My play: $50 to win on Win Win Win, .50 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost: $80.00).
Oaklawn Park Race: 9 (5:09 PM EST Post) Honey Bee Stakes Motion Emotion
was visually impressive running high level NW1X optionals off their feet while winning by almost 7 in her last and looking like the “real deal.” She improved her record to 2 for 2 on this oval in the process. Drawing towards the inside should only help her chances, should make every pole a winning one here even with the big step up in class………………….Power Gal
is a stretch runner by powerhouse sire Empire Maker who has yet to run a bad race though four career starts, highlighted by winning the Martha Washington in her debut on this oval last time out. With rain in the forecast for Oaklawn, there are no worries about her as she can handle a wet track…………………..After poking her head in front in the drive, Marathon Queen
yielded and finished just a half length behind Power Gal in the Martha Washington. That was an impressive feat being that was just filly by Super Saver’s second career start. Logical contender with normal improvement from career start #2 to career start #3………………………Honorable Mentions
: After finishing a fast closing third in her debut, Raintree Scarlet
has rattled off three impressive wins in her last three races, including taking down a Stakes race in her last. Filly by Get Stormy steps up and stretches out but could be a menace………………………Sunset Wish
has also rattled of three straight wins before finishing a close up fourth in the Martha Washington after a troubled trip (rank early, took a minor bump and four wide on the turn). Filly by Malibu Moon could outrun this rating, especially with a cleaner trip…….Couple of long-shots to consider: Bizwhacks
is consistent and ran an enormous race in the mud last time out, consider her if it rains.. and, based off her past performances, Chocolate Kisses
might quietly be sitting on big race here. (My Play: $50 win on Motion Emotion and .50 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost $80.00)
Turfway Park Race: 11 (6:37 PM EST Post) Jeff Ruby Steaks Somelikeithotbrown
just missed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year and was a conclusive winner in 2019 debut (on the synthetics) on Feb 15. This son of the very gentle Big Brown should only be tighter for this his second start of the layoff…..logical choice here…….................….Skywire
won his racing debut on the synthetics nicely, then closed very well, late to beat optional NW1X by 6 at Gulfstream Park in his last. Good looking colt by Afleet Alex takes the next logical step in this spot……………………........Five Star General
probably needed his last in the Sam F. Davis, his 2019 debut. Colt by Distorted Humor won his last two races in 2018 and his work pattern suggests he will come out running in this spot……………..Honorable Mentions
returns to his best surface (synthetics) in this spot and executed a brazen, five wide run on the turn in his 2019 debut while finishing third to Somelikeithotbrown in his last. Threat in this spot as he should be “tighter for this” and get a little better trip………………..Dynamic Racer
has shown improved early speed in 2019. Although he was beaten fair and square by the top choice last time out, he draws the rail, likes the synthetics and you get the third start off the layoff angle as well. Merits consideration even though his trainer is 6 for 185 (3%) in synthetics surface races…………..If you are hunting a long-shot, take a look at Curlin Grey
, who is the complete opposite of Dynamic Racer as this colt has shown an improved late run in both 2019 races at Gulfstream but tries the synthetics for the first time. (My Play: $50 win on Somelikeithotbrown and .50 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost $80.00)
By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
2019- Record: 15-42 = 36% (My Plays: -$815.76)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%
Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** 62-1 shot Southwest Stakes winner Super Steed
is off the Kentucky Derby trail because of bone bruising in a front leg, trainer Larry Jones said last Sunday morning.
Albeit the injury isn't career threatening, Jones said Super Steed will require 60-90 days of rest, eliminating any chance of running in the Kentucky Derby
"He's walking, but not perfect by any means," Jones said. "We just found out yesterday afternoon that's he got the issue because I galloped him yesterday and he came back and everything was good. He came out of that last race with a little more of an issue than I realized," Jones added.
"We did some X-rays, and it just looks like if we don't stop now, we're going to run into trouble. Thank God there's no surgery, no nothing needed. Just needs rest."
Jones said Super Steed will be sent to Kentucky to recover.
**** In another development last Sunday, trainer Jinks Fires said Smarty Jones winner Gray Attempt
was no longer under consideration for the Rebel Stakes because of an undisclosed minor setback. Fires said the hope is to make the Arkansas Derby.
**** Trainer D. Wayne Lukas said last Friday that Bravazo
was scheduled to undergo surgery at Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington, Ky., to address a knee issue.
Bravazo was pointing for the $12 million Dubai World Cup on March 30 in Dubai but the problem was detected after training Thursday morning, Lukas said.
"He galloped beautifully yesterday," Lukas said. "We thought he was tender coming off the wash rack, and we just got to the bottom of it. He's already gone (to Kentucky) … he had some gravel and garbage that they wanted to clean up."
Lukas said he expects Bravazo to return to his barn by June 1.
Bred and owned by Calumet Farm, Bravazo has a 3-4-3 record from 17 starts and earnings of $2,003,528.
**** Four time champion Beholder
was confirmed in foal to sire War Front, Spendthrift Farm confirmed Friday.
The pregnancy is the third for Beholder, who produced an Uncle Mo colt in 2018, and a Curlin filly on Jan. 19.
Beholder, who won Eclipse Award titles as champion 2-year-old filly, 3-year-old filly, and two as champion older female, earned over $6 million on the racetrack.
**** Global Campaign
, the half brother to the mega talented Bolt d’Oro by Curlin, “grabbed a quarter” (stepped on one of his front feet with a back foot) during his fifth place finish in last Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes.
“He grabbed a quarter, on the meaty part above the coronet band and ripped it back, and it's going to take some time to heal up,” said trainer Stanley Hough. “(Jockey) Luis (Saez) said he wasn't even sure where it happened. Best-case scenario he's going to be out of training a couple of weeks, so he'll have to miss the rest of these type of races. But I look at it as maybe a blessing in disguise because now he'll get some time off, and by summer time I think he'll really show himself and be the guy.”
My Pedigree Thoughts-- Most Of What I Have Mentioned Can Be Found Online But Takes Hours To Research.
I will give you my opinion of every horse's pedigree that looks to be pointing to this year's derby. but I will let each of you make the final decision of who you want to risk money on. Most of my thoughts will be dead on but there are instances where I may overlook a sire but more likely it will be the dam I tend to overlook. submitted by hodsct59 to horseracing [link] [comments]
Bolt D'Oro is first up. His sire was Medaglia d'Oro, a son of El Prado. Medaglia d'Oro only G1 win at 1 1/4 mile was the Travers S where he ran the last 1/2 mile in 51 flat and was all out to hang on beating the only other graded stakes winner in the field, Repent, whose biggest win was the G2 La Derby, ran that year at 1 1/16 miles. But he also ran second in two editions of the BC Classic, Belmont S(finishing the last half in 53 2/5), and the Pacific Classic(to Candy Ride when he set the track record that he still holds in 1:59 flat). His best runners were at their best up to 1 1/8 miles, though his only runner to win at 1 1/4 mile was Songbird, who did it twice, in 203 flat and 204 flat, both on fast tracks and finishing times that are respectable for fillies but a little slow for the best colts. Bolt D'Oro dam, Globe Trot, won three times in 17 starts, all at 1 mile but no stakes wins. But her sire is A.P. Indy, giving Bolt all the distance pedigree he will need. While I would not be surprised if he won, his trainer will face pressure during derby week that he has never experienced before. It is the downfall of many, especially the first time. The more I watch his races makes me believe the trainer will try to get him on the lead, and I think he is beatable if the trainer succeeds.
Enticed is another son of Medaglia D'Oro(see above). His dam is It's Tricky, a multiple G1 winning filly up to 1 1/8 mile. However, the only time she tried 1 1/4 mile, she ran 2nd to Royal Delta, a champion 3 YO & 4 YO filly. She just recently died from foaling complications producing a Pioneerof The Nile colt, who also died. Her other foal was a year older full sister to Enticed and retired without racing to preserved the bloodlines. It's Tricky sire, Mineshaft, is a son of A.P. Indy who was Horse Of The Year in 2003 and winning at 1 1/4 mile twice in 2 attempts, the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 2:00 1/5 and the Suburban on 201 3/5, beating Volponi in the latter, pulling away at the end. His best sons were Effinex, a G1 winner at 1 1/4 mile and Dialed In, beaten favorite in the 2011 Ky Derby. Enticed trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin has experienced the pressure of derby week several times, including a 2nd in the 2005 Ky Derby with Closing Argument at 80-1, and two 4ths with Frosted and Mohaymen, both sons of Tapit. As of now, Enticed is my pick to win this year's derby and will most likely be the one I will end up betting. Knowing McLaughlin, I believe he will ask the jockey to rate this horse and make a move turning for home.
Bravazo is a son of Awesome Again, who was Horse Of The Year in 1998 when he won the BC Classic against probably the best field top to bottom ever assembled for that race, including Silver Charm, Swain, Victory Gallop and Skip Away, all multiple G1 SWs up to 1 1/2 miles. Awesome Again is a top sire and his best son, Ghostzapper, also won the G1 BC Classic on his way to Horse Of The Year in 2004. Bravazo's dam, Tiz O' Gold, is bred on the exact same lines as Tiznow but her broodmare sire, Slew O' Gold was Seattle Slew's most accomplished runner on the race track, winning the older horse TC at 4 YO after narrowing missing sweeping it as a 3 YO. While Bravazo is bred to handle 1 1/4 miles, he will need to run faster than he has thus far to be a factor against G1 competition. A likely pace setter.
Promises Fulfilled is a son of Shackleford, who ran 4th in the Ky Derby after setting the pace and then won the Preakness S, beating Animal Kingdom. His dam, Marquee Delivery, was graded stakes placed at 1 mile and 1 1/8 miles. His broodmare sire, Marquetry, won the 1 1/4 mile Hollywood Gold Cup, just lasting and beating a career G3 winner but was trounced in at least a half dozen other attempts at 1 1/4 mile, including twice more each in the Gold Cup and BC Classic. If Promises Fulfilled gets a slow pace is the only way, he will be a factor in the Ky Derby and I personally do not see that as possible. I will definitely make this one beat me.
Magnum Moon is a son of Malibu Moon, who sire Ky Derby winner Orb, a horse Magnum Moon is similar bred like. Orb's broodmare sire was Unbridled and Magnum Moon's broodmare sire is Unbridled's Song. However, there is a major difference in their female lines that could prevent Magnum Moon from getting the 1 1/4 mile distance. Unbridled's broodmare sire, Le Fabuleux, is a son of Wild Risk, a great grandson of St Simon and himself the broodmare sire of Blushing Groom(broodmare sire of Awesome Again). In Unbridled's female family under Le Fabuleux, his dams traces to Man O' War twice and more important, to La Troienne twice. Unbridled's Song was super fast and the beaten favorite in the 1996 Ky Derby when 4th to another Unbridled's son, Grindstone. Unbridled's Song broodmare sire was Caro, whose best sons were better on grass than dirt. However, Caro's daughter, Winning Colors, won the Ky Derby in 1988, mostly because the trainers of that derby gave her no respect and she got to run all alone throughout and lasted. Unbridled's Song initially was better at siring sprinters/ milers types when he first started breeding, but his progeny started getting more distance as he aged. Underneath in Magnum Moon pedigree is Giant's Causeway whose broodmare sire is Rahy, a son of Blushing Groom. So before I can dismiss this horse, I will want to see how he fares in the Arkansas Derby. Pletcher has screwed up on several top 3 YOs just before the derby and this could possibly be another one. The Apollo curse(unraced as a 2 YO) will eventually be broken and this one has the bloodlines to do it, especially with his slightly off the pace style of running.
Quip is a son of Distorted Humor, who was better as a sprinter during his racing career. He was the sire of Ky Derby and Preakness winner, Funny Cide, but Funny Cide's broodmare sire(Slewacide) had more to do with that than him. Distorted Humor can produce a distance runner but usually when he gets a lot of help from the dam. And that is not the case with Quip. Starting with his broodmare sire, Indian Charlie, his female family is loaded with sprint/miler type runners and producers. Definitely one I will not consider.
McKinzie is a son of Ky Derby winner Street Sense. However, he has the running style that resembles his broodmare sire Petionville, a son of Seeking The Gold, who found 1 1/8 miles to be his limit. Mckinzie's running style is the preferred style Baffert now tries to teach all his horses to use but I believe he would be much more dangerous if allowed to sit mid pack and make one big run. But Baffert has been burned twice using that type of tactics on favorite type horses and I do not see him changing what has worked for him 4 different times versus none(due to misjudged rides mostly). So I will try to beat this one.
Good Magic is a son of Curlin, who ran third in the Ky Derby in his 4th lifetime start, then won the Preakness and ran 2nd in the Belmont S on his way to the 3 YO Champion. He was Horse Of The Year at 4 in 2008. Good Magic's broodmare sire is Hard Spun, who beat Curlin when 2nd in the 2007 Ky Derby behind Street Sense, then ran 3rd in the Preakness and 4th in the Belmont before finishing 2nd in the BC Classic in the slop against Curlin. Hard Spun's sire was Danzig, who mostly known for siring milers but his broodmare sire was Turkoman, a son of Alydar, who was Champion Older Horse after maturing as a 4 YO. However he ran 2nd in the Travers S and 3rd in the BC Classic as a 3 YO, so he showed he preferred distance. There will be no one in this year derby that is better bred to handle a distance than Good Magic. And with Chad Brown(who learned under Bobby Frankel) as his trainer, it will be hard to bet against this one. Only downfall might be two races before the derby but Brown has proven he knows how to get them fit quickly.
Solomini is another son of Curlin(see above). His broodmare sire is Storm Cat. However, Solomini's dam, Surf Song, is an unraced 1/2 sister to Frosted but with one noted difference. She is inbred 5x5 to ultra stamina influence Princequillo. When a horse is inbred, they will often turn out closely resembling the inbred horse. She has five foals to race and Solomini is her first graded placed foal. Early in his career, Princequillo flashed speed but was unable to win often until he was claimed for $2500 and tried at distances of 1 1/4 mile and up. He set the 1 3/4 mile track record at Saratoga in 1943 as a 3 YO and was brought by Arthur "Bull" Hancock for breeding purposes. Baffert announced before the Rebel, that he would have to find another spot for Solomini because he was going to run Justify in the Arkansas Derby. Maybe worth a wager in the exacta or trifecta, but only if he gets little or no respect at the betting windows. I still believe he represents Baffert's best shot at another derby win.
Flameaway is a son of Scat Daddy, who probably is best up to 1 1/8 miles on dirt. He is better bred for grass and that is why most of his foals perform better on that surface. Flameaway's broodmare sire is Fusaichi Pegasus, winner of the 2000 Ky Derby and Mr Prospector's only son to win at 1 1/4 mile or further in a G1 race on a fast track. The only other time he raced at 1 1/4 miles was the BC Classic that year and he was no factor against Tiznow & Giant's Causeway. I see Flameaway as a pace factor only and there are quite a few I like better.
Firenze Fire is a son of Poseidon's Warrior, who did not win a stakes race past 6 furlongs. However, Poseidon's Warrior broodmare sire is Smarten who also is broodmare sire of Smart Strike. Smarten won 4 derbies as a 3 YO and ran 2nd in the Travers S and the Arkansas Derby. Firenze Fire's broodmare sire is Langfuhr, the best siring dirt son of Danzig. Langfuhr is the sire of Wando who won Canada's TC(restricted to Canadian breds) but got crushed when he raced against America's best and Lawyer Ron, who won the Arkansas Derby and several other G1 up to 1 1/8 miles. Firenze Fire has a sneaky good pedigree especially on his dam side and that makes him a possible for an underneath slot but think him winning is probably a little far fetch. He is one I will probably make beat me because I like several others more.
Free Drop Billy is a son of Union Rags, who won the 2012 Belmont S and whose only off the board finish in his career came in the Ky Derby when he got sandwiched at the start, squeezed back and had to take up but then closed with a rush to finish 7th, making up more than a dozen lengths. Free Drop Billy's broodmare sire is Giant's Causeway who has been a top runner and sire throughout his life. He has the pedigree to burn none believers and it will mostly be the type of trip he gets that determines the final outcome. While I am leaning against betting him to win, he is one I will have to consider underneath.
Snapper Sinclair is a son of City Zip, who was a solid sprinter during his racing career. I bet a lot of his horses at under a mile on dirt and usually up to a mile on grass. However, we are talking about 1 1/4 mile on dirt here and there is no way I can even consider that. Snapper Sinclair's broodmare sire is Yes It's True, another confirmed sprinter who was at his best up to 7 furlongs. And while he has a little help from other parts of his pedigree, the fact he has 2 sprinters in the 2 most important spot of his pedigree makes him a do not include in any bets for me. Pass.
Combatant is a son of Scat Daddy, who as I mentioned earlier was at his best up to 1 1/8 miles on dirt but his best runners are better on grass. Combatant's broodmare sire is Boundary, who also was a sprinter during his racing career. Boundary did sire Ky Derby and Preakness winner, Big Brown, but it was discovered after the Preakness that he was receiving monthly steroids shots, which has always been illegal in all horse racing jurisdictions because it can mask more potent drugs. When confronted, the trainer admitted to administering the steroids, leading to a 10 year to lifetime ban on the trainer. That said, Combatant does have a nice pedigree underneath that makes it hard to dismiss him. Forty Niner ran 2nd in the 1988 Ky Derby to Winning Colors and is Mr Prospector's best siring son. Combatant's dam is also inbred 3x4 to Northern Dancer and 5x5 to Native Dancer. Also, Slew O' Gold can be found on the dam side. If you like this horse, you can be sure you will get some solid odds on derby day, especially if he runs close but finishes 2nd or 3rd in his last prep. Have not yet toss him myself, waiting to see how the derby sets up.
Blended Citizen is a son of Proud Citizen, who ran 2nd in the 2002 Ky Derby and 3rd in the Preakness, beating Medaglia D'Oro. Proud Citizen is one of only a few sires that has sired 2 Ky Oaks winners, Proud Spell and Believe You Can. Proud Citizen's son, Went The Day Well, lagged near the back of the pack in the 2012 Ky Derby but was closing fastest of all at the end to finish 4th, beaten 2 1/2 lengths, making up 8 lengths in the stretch alone against I'll Have Another and Bodemeister. Proud Citizen's third dam, Arctic Dancer, is a full sister to Northern Dancer. Blended Citizen's broodmare sire, Langfuhr, was arguably Danzig's best producing son on dirt but was also a solid sire on grass. While he was a sprintemiler during his racing career including winning the G1 Metropolitan Mile, several of his foals stretched their speed up to 1 1/8 mile on dirt. With three crosses of Nearctic in his 5th generation and two crosses of Natalma(Mahmoud's grand daughter who was dam of Northern Dancer & Arctic Dancer), Blended Citizen is bred very similar to Danehill, sire of 348 SWs(most all time by one sire). However, Danehill won two sprint stakes on grass during his racing career and most of his foals were also best at sprinting up to a mile on grass. While I feel Blended Citizen best surface will be the all weather tracks and grass, there is little in his pedigree that suggest he can not perform well at 1 1/4 mile on dirt. However, he will have to run a race he has not proven capable of yet to be a factor but has the look of one that could finish in the lower have of the exotics, keying a monstrous payoff.
Strike Power is a son of Speightstown, a very fast sprinter during his racing career that Pletcher was forced to stop on twice during his racing career due to major injuries, once for almost 2 years. Speightstown still owns Saratoga track record for 6 furlongs in 108 flat and he won the BC Sprint, also in 108 flat, in the last start of his career as a 6 YO. Strike Power's dam, Gold D'Oro, won at 1 1/4 mile on grass in allowance company and showed she preferred distances of 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles on grass. Her sire is Medaglia D'Oro and she has a rare cross of 3/4 brothers Sadler's Wells and Nureyev, both top sires on grass at distances. Gold D'Oro's dam line traces back into 1941 TC winner Whirlaway. However his pedigree is tilted too much towards speed on dirt for my liking and he will be one I will leave out of my bets.
Old Time Revival is a son of Brethren, a 1/2 brother to 2010 Ky Derby winner Super Saver. Their dam, Supercharger, is a full sister to She's A Winner, dam of 2006 Ky Derby & Belmont S seconds, Blue Grass Cat. Brethren, also trained by Pletcher, won his first 3 starts including the G3 Sam F Davis S before running third in the Tampa Bay Derby and 11th in the Arkansas Derby, effectively knocking him out of the TC consideration. Brethren dam line is also the dam line of California Chrome's broodmare sire, Not For Love. However, Brethren's early career mirrors that of this year derby hopeful, Magnum Moon. Old Time Revival's broodmare sire is Congaree, who ran third in the 2001 Ky Derby after contesting the fastest pace in Ky Derby long history. Congaree would win the Hollywood Gold Cup at 1 1/4 miles and run 2nd in the SA Handicap as a 4 YO. His broodmare sire Mari's Book, a son of Northern Dancer, was also broodmare sire of Ashado, champion 3 YO filly and Champion Older filly as a 4 YO. While Old Time Revival has some more stamina influences in his dam family, he seems to prefer setting the pace and that will probably be his downfall against this type of horses. Another I will not consider, myself.
Instilled Regard is a son of Arch, who won the G1 Super Derby at 1 1/4 miles, beating a G3 quality field at best. Here is a sire that I disagree with the pedigree experts assessment on his distance abilities. The experts thinks he is a 1 1/4 mile sire but his progency says otherwise. True, he is sire of BC Classic winner, Blame but Blame's female family produced Sadler's Wells and his full brother Fairly Bridge, and Nureyev, along with dozens of others who displayed distance capabilities. Outside of Blame, Arch's other foals was good up to 1 1/8 miles but none lasted the 1 1/4 miles distance. However, his sire line is one of the best stamina influences but Arch's dam line was simply middle distance horses at best. Instilled Regard's broodmare sire is Forestry, a son of Storm Cat but who sports the same dam line as Mr Prospector, just a few generations later. This dam line was also at their best up to 1 1/8 miles and struggled at any distances past that point. However, Instilled Regard's second dam, Heavenly Prize, won 9 of 18 starts including several at 1 1/4 miles and never finished worse than third, including a solid third to Cigar while he was in the middle of his 16 straight winning streak. The Risen Star S is a toss for this horse and every other horse than ran in that race as no horse passed more than one horse throughout that race. While it is common to see no moves in a 4 or 5 horse field, it has to be at least 1 in 10,000 to see none in a 8 or more horse fields. So I am going to wait to see what he does in the Santa Anita Derby before I will be willing to totally exclude him from consideration.
Catholic Boy is a son of More Than Ready, who ran 4th in the 2000 Ky Derby. However, he never won past 7 furlongs in his racing career, though he ran 2nd in the Blue Grass S on Keeneland's notorious speed favoring track and 2nd in the Louisiana Derby against horse than proved to be a cut below the better horses of that year. As a sire, More Than Ready's foals has always been high class sprinters/milers, especially on grass but none has won at 1 1/4 mile on either surface. The only son I found of his that won at 1 1/8 miles on dirt was Verrazano, who won both the Wood Memorial and Haskell Inv as a 3 YO in blowouts. But he did not finish anywhere near the money in 3 tries at 1 1/4 miles. Catholic Boy's broodmare sire, Bernardini, won the Travers S and the Jockey Club Gold Cup at 1 1/4 mile as a 3 YO before running 2nd in the BC Classic. However, his best distance son, Stay Thirsty, had no problem handling 1 1/4 miles but his broodmare sire, Storm Bird, had a lot of influence in that. His 2nd best son, To Honour And Serve, won several G1s at 1 1/8 miles but was not close in two tries at 1 1/4 miles. So while I will not say Catholic Boy can not win(because anything can happen during a race), my money will be going on others that has family that succeeded at 1 1/4 miles or further.
Avery Island is injured and off the derby trail.
My Boy Jack is a son of Creative Cause, who finished 5th in the 2012 Ky Derby after making a strong move before hitting the invisible proverbial brick wall at the 1/8 pole. Creative Cause's sire, Giant's Causeway, had no problem with the 1 1/4 miles distance but his dam, Dream Of Summer, limit was 1 1/8 miles but she was even better at up to a mile. Her sire line is the same as Uncle Mo and this sire line is much more dangerous on grass. My Boy Jack's broodmare sire, Mineshaft, was Horse Of The Year at 4 YO and won both of his attempts at 1 1/4 miles. And believe it or not, he is the only son of A.P. Indy out of a Mr Prospector mare to win a G1 race at 1 1/4 miles. My Boy Jack's dam was unraced but is bred to another daughter out of a Mr Prospector's son. And for this reason, I will be looking elsewhere.
Greyvitos is a son of Malibu Moon, who broke his maiden in his first start and then got injured in his second start while finishing second. Malibu Moon sired 2013 Ky Derby winner, Orb, who won in a muddy edition of the derby like his pedigree suggested he should and never came even close to reproducing that form at the 1 1/4 mile distance. Malibu Moon's best foals are solid at 1 1/8 miles but rarely wants to go any more route of ground. Greyvitos was last seen winning the Remington Springboard Mile in December and had surgery to remove bone chips from his knees after that race. He has yet to make his 3 YO debut, but is now back in training. Greyvitos's broodmare sire is Najran, who won up to a mile and actually tied Dr Fager's world record of 132 1/5 for a mile on dirt in the G3 Westchester H. His best two runners were fillies, including Greyvitos's dam, and both were solid up to 1 1/8 mile on grass. His dam also has some distance influence in her family tree. However, I can not believe any horse will be able to beat the best off one prep at 1 1/4 mile and will have to pass, especially with his pedigree.
Audible is a son of Into Mischief, who won the 1 1/16 mile CashCall Futurity on Hollywood Park's all weather track in a fast time. Into Mischief is a 1/2 brother to Beholder, who won the Pacific Classic at 1 1/4 mile as a 5 YO against horses better suited for shorter distances and then ran 2nd to California Chrome in the same race as a 6 YO. Beholder two races outside of California was better than most perceived as she ran 2nd in the Ky Oaks, beaten a 1/2 length by Princess Of Sylmar and then 4th, beaten 1 length by that rival in the Ogden Phipps H. However, true to her pedigree, she performed her best at 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles against the best of her class. Audible's broodmare sire, Gilded Time, won the BC Juvenile Dirt as a 2 YO and was injured shortly thereafter and missed the derby. He returned in the BC Sprint after a year layoff and ran third, beaten 3/4 of a length. However, his pedigree suggested he would struggle at a 1 1/4 mile. In fact, his best son, Gayego, won the G1 Arkansas Derby at 1 1/8 miles and ran near the back in both the Ky Derby & Preakness S, fading badly both times. So there is no way I will consider betting this horse under any circumstances. I have never made money betting this type and rarely does this type beat my horse. Pass.
The Tabulator and Paved, a filly, are not nominated to the derby. The Tabulator has good breeding but has been sent towards the lead in each of his starts and I will not consider him mostly for that reason and the expected pace battle that is shaping up along with being inactive this year. Paved, a filly, will prove she belongs on the grass and/or all weather tracks against her own kind. She beat a less than stellar field in the El Camino Real Derby.
Kanthara is a son of Jimmy Creed, who won the G1 Malibu S at 7 furlongs. His sire was Distorted Humor and his dam, Hookedonthefeelin, only added to his sprinting ability. Kanthara's broodmare sire, Noonmark, was a son of Unbridled's Song, whose best races were as an off the pace sprinter that did not run on as the distance stretch out slightly. So I will take a pass on this one as I simply do not see enough stamina influences to help him.
World Of Trouble is a son of Kantharos, who won his only 3 starts, including the G2 Saratoga Special in the mud. Kantharos's sire, Lion Heart, ran 2nd in the 2004 Ky Derby to Smarty Jones, also in the mud. World Of Trouble's broodmare sire, Valid Expectations was a confirmed sprinter whose biggest win came in the G3 1 mile Derby Trial S. He tried G1 competition twice and was crushed on both occasions. Simply does not have enough pedigree for my liking. Pass.
Lombo is a son of Graydar, a G1 winning son of Unbridled's Song who won 5 of his 6 lifetime starts, including the Donn H and New Orleans H, defeating G1 winners Flat Out, Take Charge Indy, and Bourbon Courage in the Donn H at 1 1/8 miles in wire to wire fashion. He concluded his career by winning the G2 Kelso H at a mile in 1:34 flat. Lombo is from Graydar's first crop. Lombo's broodmare sire, Johannesburg, went unbeaten in 7 starts as a 2 Yo, including beating a solid field in the G1 BC Dirt Juvenile handily after winning Europe's biggest 2 YO races in his first 6 starts. In his first crop, he sired Scat Daddy, who won the G1 Champagne at 1 mile and G1 Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles. Lombo is another who would benefit from a slow pace but I really think he is overmatched against these. Pass.
Noble Indy is a son of Take Charge Indy, who won the G1 Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles. In his only try at the 1 1/4 distance, he finished 19th of 20th beaten 50 lengths by I'll Have Another. Take Charge Indy is a 1/2 brother to Will Take Charge, champion 3 YO of 2013. Noble Indy's dam, Noble Maz, won a couple of turf sprints restricted to Pennsylvania Bred, Her sire, Storm Boot, did his best running in turf sprints also, though he did not win a stakes race. Storm Boot's best son, Delta Storm also spent his career on all weather tracks and grass in Southern California but won only 2 small stakes, both at 6 furlongs. While I am willing to throw his Risen Star race out, I still do not see him being a factor at 1 1/4 mile. Pass.
Pony Up is a son of Aikenite, a son of Yes It's True whose top effort was a 2nd in the G1 Breeders' Futurity at 1 1/16 miles on Keeneland's all weather track. When tried on dirt, he was beaten soundly a number of times in mid distances and his only win in a dirt stakes came in the G2 CD Handicap at 7 furlongs. Pony Up's dam, A.P. Petal, is an unraced daughter of A.P. Indy bred with a Mr Prospector daughter that produced many good foals but for the most part with distance limitations. However, Pony Up is in bred 4x4 to Secretariat and crosses with Bold Ruler three times in his 5th generation. Throw in Secretariat's 1/2 brother, Sir Gaylord, as the sire of his fourth dam and you have a horse that will probably run all day. His Holy Bull race is better than it looks on paper and this is the Pletcher horse that most likely will be live on derby day. Definitely one I will keep an eye on and will be a part of my final decision.
Vino Rosso is a son of Curlin, champion 3 YO of 2007 and Horse of the Year in 2008. His broodmare sire is Street Cry, sire of both Street Sense and Zenyatta, both confirmed late runners. Street Cry, as a runner, was sent to the lead and set blistering paces throughout his career, but often tired late. He was a classic example of a horse who was asked to run early but probably would have been better as a late type runner. I say this because his female family was loaded with European champions and most of them did their best running late. His Tampa Derby Derby run was not a good indication of his running ability as the pace was crawling, at best, and Velasquez tried to keep him close to have a chance and he did not respond mostly because he had nothing to run at. While I like others better, I know he could surprise with a pace to run at like he will get in the Ky Derby, if Pletcher decides to push forward. Not likely, though.
Tiz Mischief is a son of Into Mischief, who won the G1 CashCall Futurity on Hollywood Park all weather track and is a 1/2 brother to Beholder. His broodmare sire, Tiznow, won back to back BC Classic in 2000 and 2001 at 1 1/4 miles. Like his pedigree or not, he has six full brothers and sisters that either placed or won in G1 races at 1 1/4 miles or produced at least one runner that won in G1 races at a classic distance. His full brother, Budroyale, ran 2nd in the 1999 BC Classic after running 2nd in the 1999 Hollywood Gold Cup and adding a second in the 2000 Santa Anita H, all at 1 1/4 miles. Tiz Mischief has been posting fast works since his first work and everything will eventually click. Whether that will be before the derby or in the derby remains to be seen. The Tampa Bay Derby ran in a similar fashion to this year's Risen Star S and horses exiting both of these should be on everyone's list to watch out for. After looking back at the Tampa Bay Derby, I now realized the outcome was the results of very slow paces in both races. That said, I still am on the fence with this horse because he has yet to run to his works. Hoping to see one more race before the derby from him and knowing Romans, it probably will be the Blue Grass S.
Hollywood Star is a son of Malibu Moon, sire of 2013 Ky Derby winner Orb on a muddy track. Hollywood Star's dam, Hollywood Story, ran 4th in the 2003 BC Juvenile Fillies against Halfbridled for the third graded stakes in a row against that rival and Ashado as a maiden and came back to win the G1 Hollywood Starlet in her next start. She ended her career winning 4 graded stakes, including the G1 Vanity H at 1 1/8 mile. Her sire was Wild Rush, who won the Illinois Derby at 1 1/8 mile but his biggest win came in the G1 Metropolitan Mile H. Hollywood Story's broodmare sire was Dynaformer, best known as sire of Ky Derby winner Barbaro but also sire of Point Of Entry, a champion turf distance son. Hollywood Star is another trainee of Romans and is probably the best bred son for distance of Malibu Moon this year. However, he has only been seen once this year and that inconsistent makes me wonder if Romans is up to something with this horse. He has been talking about both Tiz Mischief and Free Drop Billy a lot, but has not mentioned this horse. But if you look at the works of each, this one is working faster than his other horses.
Ayacara is a son of Violence, a son of Medaglia D'Oro and winner of 3 races in 4 lifetime starts, including the G1 CashCall Futurity on Hollywood Park's all weather track. He fracture a sesamoid bone while finishing 2nd in the Fountain Of Youth and was retired. Violence third dam, Sky Beauty, won the U.S. TC for fillies while winning 15 of 21 lifetime races. His broodmare sire, Pulpit, is the sire of Tapit and grand sire of 2014 Ky Derby & Preakness winner California Chrome. Ayacara has yet to display any resemblance to his pedigree and looks like a fringe player, at best. Not for me until noted improvement is shown. Pass.
Sporting Chance is a son of Tiznow, winner of two BC Classic at 1 1/4 mile. His dam, Wynning Ride, won the Iowa Distaff for her only stakes win, but she ran 2nd in the G1 Hollywood Starlet S on Hollywood's all weather track and third in the G1 CCA Oaks at 1 1/4 mile. Her sire is Candy Ride, unbeaten in 6 lifetime starts, including the G1 Pacific Classic where he broke the track record in 1:59.11 and still owns it today. His pedigree on his dam side is tilted heavily towards speed and is one I will try to beat. However, Lukas will do his best to have him ready but I still believe it looks like a fast pace is setting up in this year's derby.
Givemeaminit is a son of Star Guitar, who won 24 of 30 lifetime starts, mostly races restricted to Louisiana Breds. His sire is Quiet American, sire of 1997 Ky Derby & Preakness winner Real Quiet, Cara Rafaela(dam of Bernardini) and Quiet Dance(dam of Horse Of The Year Saint Liam and 2nd dam of Gun Runner). Givemeaminit's broodmare sire is Turkoman, a son of Alydar out of a mare by Round Table's son Table Play and U.S. Horse Of The Year in 1986. Sire of Givemeaminit's second dam is Pleasant Colony, winner of the 1981 Ky Derby & Preakness and third in the Belmont S. Sire of his third dam is Illustrious, another son of Round Table from 1926 Belmont S winner Chance Play, a closer relative of Man O' War including the same sire. I absolutely love his pedigree and he will be my bet to win the Ky Derby if he qualifies in this weekend's Louisiana Derby. I have him to win in the first future book at 70-1 and would have placed more on him to win in the next 2 futures if they had not moved him to the field. Instead, I used Enticed in the second future book to win and got 62-1. Either one wins and I will kick back for months.
Justify is a son of Scat Daddy, who won the 1 1/8 mile Florida Derby in 2007. Scat Daddy's best foals ran better on grass than dirt, however. Scat Daddy's best performing horse on dirt looks to be Frac Daddy, who ran second in the 2013 Arkansas Derby before finishing 16th in the Ky Derby. El Kabeir won 2 G3 New York preps in the 1 1/16 mile Gotham S and 1M 70Y Jerome s. He ran 3rd in the Wood Memorial and scratched from the Ky Derby on the morning of that race. He would never hit the board again in a graded stakes. Daddy Nose Best won the G3 Sunland Derby for his only graded stakes win on dirt before running 10th in the Ky Derby and 9th in the Preakness. Scat Daddy's son Daddy Long Legs won the UAE Derby at 1 3/16 mile on their then all weather track before finishing last in the 2012 Ky Derby. His only other start on dirt, he finished last in the BC Juvenile Dirt the previous year. Justify's dam, Stage Magic, finished third in the G3 Gardenia S at 1 mile after battling the pace and tiring to finish 6 3/4 lengths behind Groupie Doll. She also finished third in the Pippen S at 1 1/16 mile, again tiring late. Justify's second dam was the G1 placed Magical Illusion. Her G1 placing came in the CCA Oaks after battling Ashado for the lead and stopping cold at the mile pole in the 1 1/4 mile test to finish 3rd beaten 12 lengths. Justify's broodmare sire, Ghostzapper, is a 1/2 brother to City Zip but he won the BC Classic at 1 1/4 mile after setting a slow pace for a G1 race and sprinting home in 47 4/5 seconds at Lone Star Park, a track known for sub 46 splits for distance races. Most of his foals performs better under a mile, like City Zip but he has some that performed well in distance too, unlike City Zip. Which one will Justify be? Only time will tell but I will make him prove to me that he can do what his bloodlines says he can not do against G1 competition.
These are the known runners that is still pointing for the derby. There are several good ones that will fly under the radar and you will get good odds. There are several others that will be overbet and ripe to take a stance against. But the final decision will be yours whether you want to try to make a little or make a lot with just a few dollars risked. I personally normally bet a lot(for me) but as always, will only include the few horses I think will have the best chance of surprising. Good luck to all and hopes this helps.
Horse Racing Results Graded stakes horse racing results & video race replays. Watching race replays is an invaluable handicapping tool for horse betting. 2020 Lake Placid Stakes Entries & Odds at Saratoga Speaktomeofsummer headlines eight-horse field of sophomore fillies in the Grade 2, $150,000 Lake Placid Stakes on Sunday, July 19 at Saratoga. For the first time in history, the Belmont Stakes ran as the first race in the Triple Crown. The order for 2020 is Belmont Stakes first, Kentucky Derby second and Preakness Stakes last. Due to the Here are the payout results from the 144th running of the Preakness Stakes. War of Will $14.20 $7.40 $5.40 Everfast $32.00 $14.40 Owendale $6.00. $2 Exacta: 1-10 ($947.00), $1 Trifecta 1-10-5 ($4,699.80), $1 Superfecta 1-10-5-3 ($51,924.00) sports betting scenario, including jobs, income, and tax revenue. In these estimates, the direct effects, which include the jobs and incomes at sports betting operations, are primarily the result of a shift of spending from illegal to legal markets, and are therefore a net gain to the legal, measured economy. History. Even though it was inaugurated two years before the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes is the second event of the Triple Crown. The event had its first run in 1873 and it is the shortest among the Triple Crown races with a distance of 1-3⁄16 miles.