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$DKNG Makes No Sense to Me - Lots of Thoughts

DKNG has seen huge gains this week, mostly focused on Tuesday and today, Thursday. Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news: on Tuesday afternoon a presser with Gary Bettman was announced and on Thursday it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not move back down at all after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t seem to have much impact on other sports betting stocks either.
Both of these events point towards something that seems obviously clear: DraftKings’ stock is hugely overpriced, but seems to keep being driven up just by trading. I think there are cases to be made for short term bull or bear, and for long term bear. I’m already in on the long term bear case with Nov ‘20, Dec ‘20 and Jan ‘21 Puts that have all taken a beating, but debating what the profitable short term play is.
For some context, I used to trade bonds on one of the biggest desks in NY, but moved to be closer to family a while ago and run my own business. My state is not supported by DraftKings, so keep in mind when reading that I am a bit salty towards the company and their ability to sniff out VPNs. Been a long time lurker here, but this is my first post.
The company’s Q1 earnings was pretty enlightening and quite the spin job. I was shocked to see the stock rise that day after what I read to be a pretty poor outcome. Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but seeing no growth in net revenue despite 30% growth in gross revenue means that the company has a growth problem, in other words almost all the revenue growth was driven by giving away free bets and reducing vig. Let’s look further at revenue growth though.
I found it very interesting that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DraftKings, which makes up about 75% of New DraftKings revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not 30% - spin job.
The company also gave us an interesting insight into coronavirus’ impact on their business, maybe unintentionally. At Old DraftKings, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ‘19, that’s big. However, we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, you can see your way to revenue post-March 10th being down 95%. A similar look at SBTech’s drop from +19% to only +3% means revenue post-coronavirus is down at least by half.
Another interesting lens to use in looking at the company is how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced five months ago in December. On slide 22 they compare their valuation to a variety of comps, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to alleviate the fact that the valuation for DraftKings was about 4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. I’m going to ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because adjusting a forward looking multiple based on your own forward looking growth projections is absolute garbage, and instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comps.
At $39 per share, DraftKings has a market cap a bit over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million, giving them a revenue multiple of 33.7x. For those of you that haven’t been around the block a few times, that is outrageously high. The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best comp is probably Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, trades at 7.8x. DraftKings deserves a higher multiple than Flutter given that they are pure-play USA vs Flutter which has a lot of retail european revenue that isn’t high growth, but the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel being a direct comp to DraftKings with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you said DraftKings should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, which is being very generous, that implies a share price of only $13.50.
I know what you’re going to say: “this is all about more states allowing sports betting.” Fine, let’s look at what would need to happen at the state-level to get DraftKings’ current valuation to be reasonable. Going back to the December investor presentation, DraftKings estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3 billion given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. That let’s us back into $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s then give them a 30% bump on that for iGaming. Using the company’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x) that means they need $1.28 billion of revenue, or $831 million more than they currently have. $831 million more revenue needed means they need 14% more of the population to legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none are going to add any population, with PA already online, NY choosing retail-only and the other three being no where close to legalization and widely considered by researchers and lobbyists to be years away. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population.
Don’t get started on nationally legalized sports betting, no one is even pushing for that and it is never going to happen. The SCOTUS repeal of PASPA was as much about taking away the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like allowing or disallowing sports betting as it was about sports betting itself. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but it is going to be a state-by-state slog.
Another thing to consider is what the company might do with its highly valued stock. As we saw with Tesla a few months ago, a big run up in stock price is a great time to do some financial maneuvering. I think there are two very good options for management right now. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DraftKings barely tapped the big institutional investors. A follow-on would be a great way to load up the coffers further - anyone that watched TV in 2015 knows they love to spend money on ads - at a very attractive valuation for the company. The problem with this is that new shares coming in, or the follow-on pricing poorly, could be a big drag on the current share price.
Another option might be a little less obvious, but I think could make a lot of sense for the company: Buy William Hill. William Hill currently has a market cap of about $1.5 billion. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DraftKings previously tried and (largely) failed to enter, are a big threat to DraftKings’ DTC approach in the US and have the tech that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DraftKings could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DraftKings would add a ton of revenue, could cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across geographies and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace WillHill’s outdated tech with their much better apps. The big downside is that the CEOs of the two companies seem to really dislike each other.
One reason that I think the stock could be up so much since the “IPO” is that there are a very small number of liquid shares. Remember that this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, meaning that a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than would be in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could be a huge driver in the stock gain.
Circling back to be three cases for what I think could happen: - Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it - Short term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company - Long term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company, Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint/are eye opening, any blip to the NFL cash cow, NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season delays, lockup ending in October
Just giving my two cents on how I’m looking at this and trading it, and curious to hear any other thoughts or theories on real reasons why the stock is moving and where it is going.
Last thought: for those of you that like DraftKings at this price, you should LOVE Flutter at this price.
submitted by TheGlove2ReignMan to investing [link] [comments]

Music Discussion Thread - 7/10/20

Sup? Back for another week of some music talk. Big week for the "rappers dying doesn't automatically make them legendary" crowd. As always Spotify playlist below has everything here, and I've been trying to get back to consistent blogging on my own too, anyone interested can check that out here
BarstoolSports spotify playlist
No secret this one was widely anticipated since it's the first posthumous release for Juice WRLD. I was never in the crowd that worshipped him but I can definitely see he had some legitimate talent. It's a shame the kid passed away from something that could've been avoided, and he seems to have been pretty self-aware of his situation when you listen to "Wishing Well". That one is probably my favorite on the album, also digging "Life's A Mess" and "Man Of The Year" which is basically a pop punk song? RIP.
Amine quietly been putting out hits for a while now. Liking this one a lot, and as a bonus we have an understandable verse from Young Thug.
My personal favorite release of the week easily. This is a goddamn supergroup of all supergroups. Kamasi Washington, Robert Glasper, Terrace Martin, and 9th Wonder working under one name and it's everything I expected. Whole album is so goddamn smooth. If you enjoy any type of jazz/neo-soul/funk, you NEED to listen to this album. No joke it's up there with my favorite albums of the year. Favorites for me are probably "Sleepless Nights", "Freeze Tag" and "Love You Bad".
Still one of the best lyricists out right now. Absolutely impeccable flow. This one goes out to KFC and any other "all rap today sucks" people.
One of the most absolutely slept on rappers out currently, and one of my favorite sounding voices in hip hop. Whole album is produced by Alchemist too who has been on absolute fire lately. Original version of this album came out back in February but this deluxe version has 4 new tracks, including my favorite "Pots and Pans" which has a feature from the Cool Kids. Other favorites are "SNORT" feat. Freddie Gibbs and "Scrape The Bowl" feat. Benny The Butcher.
If you don't know this kid's name yet, get familiar. He might not be for everyone, but he's widely regard as basically a prodigy among producers aka people who know a lot more than me aka a ton of people.
I generally stay away from the pop-country genre, but I'll allow this one because I may or may not have worked with him and his management and the dude is one of those guys who is so polite it almost pisses you off. Plus he's got feature from Nelly and Darius Rucker.
I feel like Kaytranada's got an all time weird brain and I love it. Dude's got such a unique style.
This one was hyped up obviously because of the names, but honestly feels pretty average to me. But, it is great to see Cudi healthy and back to releasing new music. Hopefully we got more on the way with his new podcast most likely coming soon.
Really solid, classic country style album here. Also co-produced with one of FT's favorites, Sturgill Simpson. Starts off soft and quiet, but quickly picks up the pace with tracks like "Twinkle Twinkle". Also really liking "Heartless Mind" and "Prisoner Of The Highway".
Perfect rainy weekend album, raindrops hitting the window AC unit really complements this for some reason (only kind of kidding there). I honestly don't know if there's anything else I need to say about it. Favorite tracks are "Run It" and "Still Thinkin". Also their "Rocket Man" is better than Elton John's there I said it.
GREAT summer song here, and a pretty far departure from any of his previous music. Really funky, soulful bounce to this one. Gives some Mayer Hawthorne vibes...
Did I just segue between songs? You bet your ass I did. I think Hawthorne fans will certainly dig this one.
It's no Jagged Little Pill, but she's definitely still got it. First 2 tracks are a bit more quiet, emotional feel to them and the next 2 take off and are a little more fast-paced. "Smiling" is the standout for me, full album coming out July 31st.

Alright that's it for me, let me know what you guys have been listening to lately. Also I'm open to any feedback on these posts/changes you guys would be in to. Have a great weekend guys and wear a mask.
submitted by ghostfacekyle to barstoolsports [link] [comments]

First Draft Idea - Operation Speedy and Spurious: AKA Fast and Furious in Blades in the Dark

Operation Speedy and Spurious: AKA Fast and Furious in Blades in the Dark
Still fairly new to the game so I'd love feedback, explanation of where I butchered mechanics, improvements, ect.
In a world that is often a dark underbelly of crime, death, and doom the people need to have their moments of joy. While some seek to indulge their vices with drugs driving them into a stupor, delving their way into the weird aspects of the world… in a world without much in terms of sporting events how can those who just seek excitement (with maybe a little coin on the side) live their best life?
With the audience sitting along the banks of the canals and the Bluecoats tossed a spot of silver to look away for an evening, all we need is a couple crews ready to put their souped-up boats and captains to the test.
  1. It’s a race. Get your ready, set, and get going.
  2. All race boats must be able to pass as “canal legal”. If an unbribed bluecoat is going to shake you down as you’re getting to the starting line, you’re likely putting everyone at risk.
  3. The track is pre-set. All racers know the route. Anyone caught taking shortcuts will be disqualified… so you better not get caught.
  4. Outside interference in the race from a racer’s gang or their allies is strongly frowned upon This is meant to be an event of joy, so trying to meddle in the purity of the race shouldn’t be wanted by anyone… no matter how much money is being bet on the favorites.
  5. Most critically, the Master of Ceremonies (MoC) needs to dip their beak on these events. Selling tickets, collecting their vig from the “legal” bookies, promoting local business sponsorships… All the MoC needs to do is make sure that things are exciting, by any means necessary.
  6. Winners take home a prize pool. Losers take home what’s left of their boats.
  7. If some Blue Coats aren’t sufficiently bribed or your enforcers can’t hold the line, everyone probably should have a plan to bug out and not get arrested for their roles in underground racing.
Mechanic Rules:
  1. With however many racers you have, it is important to determine their odds. This translates into the number of D6 they’re rolling for the race. If you are having a trained navy crew up against a bunch of ragamuffin orphans, It’s fair to assume that the seamen are rolling an extra die.
  2. Depending on how long you want the race to go for, break the track down into “segments”. A short track can have four rounds of rolls. A grand prix can be a bit more intense. Really depends on how much you want to delve into the story.
  3. For the first track break do a X D6 roll for your racers like any other skill check. Take the high roll (unless they’re rolling at a disadvantage). The highest number is in the lead with each other racer falling a boat length behind for each number lower they roll. For example if the Orphans roll a 6 while the Seamen roll a 5, there is a lead of one ship.
  4. Repeat the process for each segment, but now instead the leads change based on prior outcomes. If on the second turn, the Orphans roll 5 and the Seamen roll 4, the navy craft is now 2 lengths behind.
  5. If (gods forbid) interference between vessels occur, damage can accrue that slows them down. When the navy crew sees they’re falling behind, the monsters may take a shot at the Orphan’s engine, causing it to sputter. A successful attack is going to really slow those ragamuffins down.
  6. If (also gods forbid) some random acts of chaos are mixed in, like the MoC setting off some pyrotechnics to excite the crowd, crews take another skill roll to avoid damage.
  7. If a ship is rolling less than 0 die (i.e. worse than rolling at a disadvantage) their crew’s skill can’t keep things going and they’re not going to finish.
  8. The order at the final roll determines the winner. If the Orphans keep one boat length lead at the finish line, they take home the trophy.
  9. In the case of a tie, a simple single die high roll determines who edged out the photo finish.
Additional Mechanics:
Not everyone wants to race. Some people like betting. Based on the advantages assessed at the beginning of the race, payouts are set. The favorites come in at 2:1 payoffs with everyone else going higher from there. If you want to get a rough insight into the system, check out real world horse race betting.
Other Flavor:
DM’s discretion for a bit of flair on these things.
Do you want rival gangs to be competing? Skovlanders are treated poorly by a lot of the city, does that translate to the track? Would a member of the City Council be interested in this as a way to gain some public support for their own personal goals? Are the down on their luck Gray Cloaks interested in being the security? Lots of options here.
submitted by Snakebite7 to bladesinthedark [link] [comments]

Is it feasible for sports betting to act like the stock market?

For example, on a game where the odds are a pick em, someone who wanted Team A could place a bid on +100 for $50, and someone who wanted team B could fill the order for +100 for $50 as well. For -200/+200 odds the amount each would put down would be in the proportion of $100 and $50, and so on. You could set any limit order you want instead of a price controlled by the book, so the bid/ask spread would shift on its own as bettors consensus opinions shift, and any open orders at the start of the game would expire.
This would eliminate the house edge, because each bettor is basically being matched to another bettor of the opposite side, instead of placing a bet with the sportsbook itself who takes the vig.
Why doesn't such a platform exist already? I'm guessing its because no one would have any financial incentive to make this commission free type platform since it wouldn't be profitable, but could this idea work for sports betting in theory at least?
submitted by tmen7 to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Update on Live Prop Bets: MLB Win Probability Futures

Edit: Win Percentage Futures not Win Probability Futures
Although there have been recent talks about restarting the MLB season in May, there remains considerable uncertainty around what the MLB might look like. Shortened season? 7 inning games? Expanded rosters? Still more questions than answers, but one thing we know is that a standard 162-season is unlikely. As a result, most sportsbooks have pulled their season win total wagers for the MLB season.
To still give sports bettors something to wager on, DraftKings sportsbook replaced its MLB Win Totals with MLB Win Percentages. As long as a minimum of 60 games are played, these wagers will have action. We give DraftKings credit for getting creative and offering these wagers to their customers.
Assessing the Market
We decided to take a closer look at this offering from DraftKings and compare it to the win totals offered by sportsbooks in March. To make an apples-to-apples comparison, we converted the March consensus Win Totals to winning percentage and then compared them with the Win Percentage offerings from DraftKings. As you can see below, the Win Percentages are almost identical to the market consensus win totals offered in March.
Win Percentage Comparison
Not a single offering was more than a one percent difference from the implied win percentages offered by sportsbooks in March.
Vig Comparison
The next things we wanted to assess was the DraftKing’s theoretical hold (or vig) on these markets. As you can see below, the standard offering is -112 on each side of these wagers:
DraftKings Vig
The sportsbook hold (or vig) on a two-sided -112 market is around 5.4%. If you want to learn how to calculate the hold yourself, PM me.
For comparison, in March, the hold on the MLB Win Totals market ranged from 4.5% - 5.2% across legally operating U.S. sportsbooks. Although the 5.4% hold is slightly higher than the hold in the Win Totals markets, it’s still a far superior way to speculate on a team’s performance than the World Series futures, which routinely have holds north of 20% (currently 25.2% at one unnamed U.S. sportsbook).
Win Inflation
The next thing we want to assess is whether the lines or odds are shaded toward the over. This is a very common strategy by sportsbooks as they take advantage of sports bettors’ tendency to prefer betting “Over” win totals rather than under. We discussed this strategy previously in a previous Reddit post.
For the Win Percentage offering from DraftKings, we calculated the average Win Percentage and odds across all teams. If there was no shading in either direction, we would expect the average Win Percentage to be exactly 50.0% and the average odds to be the same on the over and under. This is what we found:

DraftKings - MLB Win Percentage Over Under
Average 50.2% -111.8 -112.2
To the naked eye, it looks like nominal win inflation, at best. However, if we normalize a 50.2% win percentage across a normal 2,430 game season, this is the equivalent of 8.9 games of win inflation across the league. Still may not sound like a lot, but using push probabilities, we can reallocate the estimated vig between over and under bets as follows:
Vig Allocation Between Over and Under Bets
Ah – well these numbers start to be meaningful. Yes, the average vig for this market is 5.4%, but the over wagers carry the majority of the vig due to the shading. As a result, under bets are burdened with only 2.9% vig. This is similar to the Win Totals market, where we calculated that the average hold on Win Total unders to be 0.5 % - 2.9%.
Great - we’ve confirmed that the Win Percentage markets are very similar to the Win Totals markets. So how are we going to find an edge? Typically finding an edge requires some creative thinking. Well - here’s one idea we’ve come up with:
Interleague Play
Over the last two seasons, the National League has been superior in interleague play winning 52.7% of interleague games in 2018 and 55.3% of interleague games in 2019. What does the market expect to happen in 2020? Let’s turn to the Win Percentages offered by DraftKings.
The average win percentage offered by DraftKings for NL teams and AL teams is 50.7% and 49.7%, respectively. After removing win inflation and normalizing for a 2,430-game season, this equates to 1,227 wins for the NL and 1,203 wins for the AL. Since there are only 300 interleague games played each season, we can attribute the win differences between the two leagues to those interleague games (since the average win percentage in league games for each league will be 50.0%). This implies that the NL is expected to go 162-138 in interleague games, good for a 53.9% win percentage.
Interleague Win Percentage
If MLB cannot play a 162-game season, however, which games are you going to chop? My guess is the interleague games are the first games that will be removed from the schedule.
If we were to assume that all interleague games were removed (and everything else remained), we might estimate the vig allocation for the NL as follows:
Vig Estimation
At average odds of 50.7% would estimate the win inflation at almost half a win per team in the NL, bringing the vig on NL Win Percentages close to only one percent. If other books start offering lines on this, you can almost certainly get to positive expected value with a little line shopping. Even if this is the only book that has this offering, it would be a good place to focus your handicapping efforts as this is a pretty good market, all things considered.
Caveats and Extensions
Certainly, this analysis relies on a variety of assumptions. One of those assumptions is that interleague games are removed. If interleague games aren’t removed, betting the NL Unders is probably no better than betting the AL Unders.
Second, we make the assumption that only 20 games are removed from each schedule per team. Should fewer games be played, we would expect the push probability for win totals to increase, but we’d also expect more variance in final win probabilities. It’s hard to tell the net effect of fewer games.
Third, if this wager type is maintained once the total number of games is determined, it might behoove you to pay close attention to exact win percentages for a particular number of wins. For example, if the season is 110 games and a team wins 56 games, their win percentage is 50.9%. If you bet under 50.5%, you’re a loser. But if you bet under 51.0%, you’re a winner. That extra 0.5% between 50.5% and 51.0% is significant. On the other hand, if that team wins 57 games (one additional game), their win percentage is 51.8%. 51.0% and 51.5% are both losers. Thus, there is no difference between 51.0% and 51.5% if there are 110 games. Just something to keep in mind.
Last thought – this same thought process can be applied to the analysis of win percentages for particular divisions. The AL Central, for example, is particularly weak this season. Their average posted win percentage on DraftKings is 47.8%. If for some reason, the schedule is changed to have a much higher percentage of divisional games, there may be some value on the Win Percentage Over for AL Central teams.
If you disagree with my assumption that interleague games will be disproportionately removed from the schedule, please let me know what you think will happen. This analysis can be replicated across a broad set of assumptions.
submitted by cleatstreet to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Sports Betting 101: Do’s and Don’ts of Sports Betting

Do Go Line Shopping

When you buy food, clothes, or any other item, it makes sense to look for the best price. All else being equal, it’s efficient to want the best possible good for the lowest possible cost. This concept maps perfectly onto sports betting, where all else is always equal. A bet on the New York Yankees is a bet on the Yankees regardless of what sportsbook you place it at, so finding the best price is a singular variable that should be weighed on its own.
Ideally you’d have access to multiple betting outlets and simply bet your game wherever you could find the best price, but at the very least this concept of “line shopping” is a good way to get an indication of value. The convenience of having multiple options for where to place a wager is one reason why Las Vegas is considered by many to be a sports bettor’s paradise. As more and more states and regions come onboard with legalized sports betting, that landscape is set to change, though. Just look at places like New Jersey that now offer multiple outlets for bettors to place wagers at.
If you can bet the Yankees at -150, but at other sportsbooks you’d have to lay -175 or -200, then generally speaking, you’ve stumbled upon a bargain. It can be annoying and time consuming to cross-reference every one of your bets, but fortunately the resources become more and more available as sports betting grows.

Don’t Bet Large Moneyline Favorites

The further away you get from a 50/50 bet, the harder it is to get a fair price. Most sportsbooks price 50/50 propositions at -110 on both sides, but when you’re dealing with lopsided odds, the house cut widens.
If a huge favorite is -3000 to win, you won’t see the underdog remotely close to that number. So if the favorite is -3000 and the underdog is +1500, which is fairly typical or thereabouts, then there’s a good chance the fair number is somewhere in the 2000s, This means that neither side is likely to be worth betting on. Many bettors will mask this problem by parlaying large favorites together so that they can stomach a more manageable payout, but it doesn’t change the fact that the component parts of the bet are inherently bad values.
Making a bet just because you feel like it “can’t lose” is the wrong philosophy, and it’s exacerbated when you delude yourself by combining multiple bets of this nature into one wager. This can become even more problematic when you’re not being offered fair parlay odds. Some sportsbooks do offer fair parlay calculations, but betting on a lot of large money line favorites is still virtually certain to lose you money in the long run.

Do Target Correlated Parlays

Long explanation incoming…
Most people familiar with sports betting will tell you that a parlay is always a bad idea, but it’s not even remotely that simple.
A parlay is essentially a neutral proposition in general, where you are making one bet, and then automatically betting all of the possible winnings on a second, or more bets. There’s nothing particularly useful about doing this, but there’s nothing particularly problematic about doing it either. Having said that, there are some parlays that are absolutely worth considering. Some sportsbooks will let you bet parlays when the bets are actually correlated.
The idea behind a correlated parlay is that the outcome of one bet can influence the result of a second bet, so the combination of two bets can give you a different likelihood of winning than two unrelated bets. For instance, if you bet a parlay on two coin flips, you have a 25% chance to win (.5 x .5 = .25) because those two 50/50 flips are totally independent. But if you bet a parlay on, let’s say, the under and the home team in a baseball game, you actually have more than a 25% chance to win because home wins lead to less runs on average, primarily because the home team doesn’t bat in the bottom of the 9th if they are winning.
Diving deeper into baseball parlays, there are a few things to keep in mind that can give you an advantage. As mentioned above, the existence of an 18th frame (bottom of the 9th) is a chance for more runs to be scored. That alone creates an interrelationship between home victories and reduced run scoring, as well as away victories and increased run scoring, but there’s more to it as well. The rules of baseball also dictate that the game is over once the home team takes the lead in the 9th inning or later, so it’s more difficult for a home team to win by multiple runs than it is for an away team. Yes, multi-run home runs can happen in the 9th inning or later, but this is the only way a home team can win by more than one beyond the 9th. On the other hand, the away team has unlimited run potential in the 9th and extra innings, so there’s increased chance for a total bet to hit the over if the away team does the scoring.

Don’t Chase with Live Bets

Live betting odds are computed with pretty complex algorithms, and just like with large money line betting options, the fair bet is generally somewhere close to the middle.
The bottom line is that both sides of a live bet, in most cases, present less-than-ideal value, due to the increased juice, or higher house cut. Chasing your losses or chasing a pregame wager through live betting can be viewed as a way to get of what you think is a lost cause, but in the long run it’s going to hurt you.
Although, like betting on game props discussed below, it is possible to find some gems when scrolling through live betting odds. For the most part, it’s important to exercise restraint and look elsewhere for better value.

Do Bet Player Props

Player props generally come with increased vigs (-115 or -120 compared to the standard -110), but there is still plenty of opportunity to cash in on them. The most effective way to bet a player prop is simply to rely on a trusted projection system that can spot differences in the betting line and the expected result for a player’s statistics, but the best player prop values usually occur due to injuries.
Wagers are voided if the player of record is scratched from a game, but injuries to surrounding players, usually teammates, can open up some substantial advantages. In basketball, for instance, it’s generally a good idea to bet the over on props for James Harden and Chris Paul when one of the two is ruled out of a game, and same goes for Steph Curry and Kevin Durant, or other combinations of this nature.
You can also bet under props when news breaks about a minutes restriction in basketball, a snap count in football, a pitch limit in baseball, and so on. The main idea is to use your ability to quickly react to news, as player prop lines tend to respond to news more slowly than standard game betting lines.

Don’t Bet Game Props (Usually)

Game props can be viable, but there’s a slew of game props that people bet mostly for fun without realizing how negative the value is that they’re getting. Bets like “team to win first half and full game” or “player to score first basket” or “yes/no game goes to extra innings” just about never come with a fair payout and could ultimately be a disaster for your bankroll.
Sportsbooks know that people usually make these types of bets on a whim. These bets are more for casual bettors who want a more exotic taste of action, but if it’s a bet that a sharp player likes, he or she has likely already gotten in when the price was good. While it’s not absolutely impossible to find a diamond in the rough with these bets, you’re almost certainly better off looking elsewhere.
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Closing Line Value Pt 1

Alright gang – today I’m going to talk about Closing Line Value (CLV): 1) what it is, 2) how to measure it, 3) why it’s useful and 4) ultimately why it’s flawed. This seems to be a polarizing topic so I’m expecting some disagreement and backlash.
I’ll cover 1) and 2) in today’s post and 3) and 4) tomorrow in Part II.
Closing Line Value
For those of you who are new to sports betting, the “Closing Line” is the line/odds of a game when the market for a game closes (i.e. just prior to kickoff/first pitch/tip off, etc.). Closing Line Value (CLV) is simply a comparison between 1) the line/odds that your bet was placed at and 2) the Closing Line.
The theory behind CLV is that if you’re getting a line better than what is offered at the close of the market, that’s generally a good thing. Simple example: you bet the Yankees at -125 and they closed at -150. You got positive CLV. Congrats!
Measuring CLV
Unfortunately, there is no standard approach to measuring CLV.
The Casual Approach: Casually, folks would say you got “25 cents” of CLV. Clearly this is a good thing, as a $100 bet at -125 would win $80, while a $100 bet at -150 would only win $67.
The Win Probability Approach: To get slightly more technical, we can compare the breakeven win probability of your bet at -125 vs the closing line of -150. The breakeven win probability of -150 is 60.0% while the breakeven win probability of -125 is 55.6%. The difference of 4.4% in breakeven win probability is another way to quote your CLV.
The Expected Value Approach: A third approach is to measure CLV based on the expected value of the bet. If you made a bet at a breakeven probability of 55.6% and the closing breakeven probability is 60.0%, you could say that “price” of your bet increased from 55.6% to 60.0% (increase of 4.4%). Therefore your “return” (increase in value) was 4.4% / 55.6% = 8.0%.
Removing Vig
Some people prefer to review their CLV absent the book’s vig. To make this adjustment, we simply remove the half of the vig for that bet (we assume half the vig is charged on both sides of the bet).
Assuming a standard 10-cent baseball line (+140/-150) we would have a closing vig of 1.6%. Our no-vig CLV measurements would be as follows:
The Casual Approach: With a closing line of +140/-150, we estimate that the “fair” price of the favorite is -145. Thus, a comparison of your bet at -125 and the fair price of -145 would only yield “20 cents” of CLV.
The Win Probability Approach: Subtracting half the vig from our breakeven win probability yields a no-vig CLV of 3.6% (4.4% - 0.8%).
The Expected Value Approach: The closing breakeven probability of -145 is 59.2% so the “price” of your bet increased from 55.6% to 59.2% (increase of 3.6%). Therefore your “return” (increase in value) was 3.6% / 55.6% = 6.5%.
While you’re free to measure CLV however you feel like it, theoretically the no-vig expected value approach should best estimate your long-term return based on CLV.
CLV for Point Spread and Totals
To measure CLV for points spreads or totals using the Win Probability Approach or the Expected Value Approach, you need to estimate the push probabilities of the numbers that were crossed (i.e. if you bet -2.5/-110 and the market closed at -3.5/-110, you crossed the 3). You can then compare your bet with the implied “fair” moneyline of your bet based on the closing line. Referencing our NCAAB half point price of 9 cents on the 3, we estimate -2.5/-128 to be the equivalent of -3.5/-110. You can then calculate your CLV just as you had before.
Tomorrow's discussion: how CLV can be useful, but is ultimately a flawed metric
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Closing Line Value Pt 2

TL;DR: CLV can be a useful alternative measurement for performance, but is ultimately a flawed metric
Purpose of CLV
The primary purpose of CLV is an alternative measurement of performance. The theory is that if you’re getting enough CLV to cover the vig, you should be a winner in the long term. Many “pros” claim that it's best to benchmark performance based on CLV rather than actual outcomes. Sportsbooks can also use it as a measurement to assess whether a sports bettor is a “sharp” or a “square”, sometimes limiting or even outright banning bettors who consistently beat CLV. This assertion relies heavily on the efficient market hypothesis.
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Without giving you a financial theory history lesson, very simply the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that the price of an asset reflects all known information and that consistent alpha generation is impossible. Sports betting translation: the only way to bet profitably is to generate CLV and it’s impossible to generate +EV if you only bet right before the game starts. If you bet the Closing Line you should expect to lose an amount equal to the vig in the long-term.
Quite simply – this is bullshit.
Various forms of EMH may apply to liquid financial markets, but I’m going to make the argument that while CLV is useful, the Closing Line is far from efficient.
Is the Market Efficient?
Market efficiency is often characterized as having the following attributes:
1. Immediate absorption of new information
2. Important information is freely available to all participants
3. A large number of rational, profit maximizing market participants
Let’s review these assertions one-by-one.
1. Immediate Absorption of New Information
In an efficient market, the only thing that moves the price of an asset is new information. If this were true, we should be able to identify long periods of static lines, as no new information has been revealed.
Let’s check out a recent example of how reactive the markets are to new information:
On January 11, 2020 the OKC Thunder hosted the LA Lakers. Around 1:30pm ET, news broke that LeBron would miss the game. Naturally, that injury announcement had a large impact on the odds for both teams. A time series plot of the Thunder’s breakeven win probability is shown below.
Time Series of an OKC LAL game win probability
The lines almost immediately improved the Thunder’s breakeven win % from ~50% to ~65%. Without giving a chance for the lines to reach a new equilibrium, another bombshell was dropped at 1:54pm ET: Anthony Davis was questionable. The lines continued to move in the Thunder’s direction for the next hour or so before seemingly reaching an equilibrium a little after 3pm ET.
When it was finally announced that AD was downgraded to Out around 45 minutes before tip, the line began to further trend toward OKC.
So how should we judge these movements? Did the market immediately factor in new information?
Although the market reacted fairly well, there was still some opportunity to get a bet in before the market reached a new equilibrium, particularly with regard to the AD news. I would say that the market may not have fully reacted immediately, but this isn’t enough evidence to disprove the EMH.
We are 0 for 1.
2. Important Information is Freely Available to All Participants
Does everyone have access to the same information? Certainly not everyone would agree with me, but I generally believe that most sports information is freely available these days. The barrier to information is lower than it’s ever been. People use information in different ways, to give them certain edges, but I don’t think that information asymmetry is a reason to disprove EMH.
We are now 0 for 2...
3. A Large Number of Rational, Profit Maximizing Market Participants
I think we can all agree that the drunk guy parlaying the Gatorade color and coin flip at the Super Bowl might not be rational or profit maximizing.
And judging by a few Reddit comments there are plenty of sports bettors who aren’t strictly profit maximizers (please if this is any of you, please don't feel personally attacked):
“I'm not going to be dealing with 7 different bookies just to raise my ROI by .1 or .5 or even 1%.”
“I tend to gamble more when I’m bored”
“I was drunk and wanted to bet so I threw down 5 units on an Australian women's basketball game on a blind tip from the Nitrogen chat room.”
The vast majority of sports bettors aren’t profit maximizers, but utility maximizers. Sports betting offers a form of exhilaration and entertainment that can’t be found in other places. A lot of that excitement manifests itself in poor-EV-yet-thrilling wagers (such as parlays, teasers and futures) that sportsbooks happily offer you.
Just how much are non-profit maximizing behaviors costing sports bettors? To answer that, let’s take a peak at the Nevada’s annual sports betting report. In 2019, sportsbooks in Nevada took $5.3 billion in wagers and held $329 million, representing a hold of 6.2%. Previously we discussed how standard -110 odds gave sportsbooks a hold of 4.5%, which we could chisel away at pretty easily with some basic line shopping. Thus, if market participants we’re truly profit maximizers, we’d expect a hold significantly less than 6.2%.
OK – so finally we have some evidence that the EMH might not hold. Let’s see if we can test it with some data.
Testing Weak Form Efficiency
The three forms of market efficiency are Strong Form, Semi-Strong Form, and Weak Form. The Strong Form assumes that all information (private and public) is baked into the market. The Semi-Strong Form assumes that all public information is baked into the market price of an asset. The Weak Form states that historical prices cannot be used to predict future prices.
If we can prove that the weakest form of the EMH can be disproved, we can disregard the EMH.
Straight from Morningstar:
“The weak form of EMH assumes that current stock prices fully reflect all currently available security market information. It contends that past price and volume data have no relationship with the future direction of security prices. It concludes that excess returns cannot be achieved using technical analysis.”
MLB Moneyline Movements
Let’s go ahead and use MLB ML data from the 2015-2018 seasons to see if we can predict the direction of the closing line, and therefore generate theoretical value (CLV) by beating the closing line.
We gathered the Closing Line as well as the line 2-hours to close[1] (T-2) to see if we can recognize any patterns. We can then test the statistical significance of those patterns to give us a sense of whether they have any merit.
The traditional school of thought is that if you’re betting favorites, it’s best to bet them early. If a dog, wait until close to gametime. Does this hold merit?
The first thing we can do is test the average deviation of prices from a 50/50 probability. Closing Lines had an average deviation of 44 cents, while T-2 had an average deviation of 42 cents over 9,813 games in our sample. If we look at the distribution, we see that there are more games with an average deviation greater of 100 or more at close than at T-2.
Average Deviation
Yes, the curves look similar. But if we focus on the difference between the two, we can identify a more significant pattern.
Difference Between Close and T-2
What the above shows is that there are more “close” games at T-2 and more “mismatches” at Close. Huh? How can that be?
Answer: lines must move toward the favorite from T-2 to Close.
Let’s dive a little further and focus on games that have a significant favorite.
We pulled out games that have an underdog of +180 or greater at T-2. In total we had 1,208 games. Of those 1,208 games, 657 (54%) had line movement toward the favorite, 404 (33%) had line movement toward the underdog, and 147(12%) did not have any movement. The average movement of the favorite was -3.4 cents, from -224.0 to -227.2.
Visually, we can look at the distributions of movement below.
Line Movement Distribution
Clearly, the data suggests a movement toward the favorites in the last two hours, suggesting that we can capture positive CLV simply by betting favorites 2 hours prior to first pitch. This “strategy” violates weak form EMH, which states that past prices have no relationship with future price movements.
If this isn’t enough evidence to disregard the EMH, I pose you this: are the MLB markets systemically mispricing favorites two hours prior to first pitch, only to correct this mispricing from T-2 to Close?
I find it hard to believe.
Optimizing for CLV vs Optimizing for Profit
The evidence above provided a theoretically argument why the EHM can be largely disregarded and therefore CLV should not be the target that bettors are optimizing for.
A more practical reason why CLV should not be the target: because CLV is fairly simple to measure, it is the primary way that sportsbooks designate who is sharp and who is square. With so many sportsbooks practicing the strategy of limiting or banning sharp bettors, it’s probably not ideal to optimize for a strategy that 1) rests heavily on the assumption of an efficient market and 2) firmly puts you on the radar of sportsbooks.
[1] This is the line available two-hours prior to first pitch.
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Ultimate Guide for Online Sports Betting OFA168

Sports betting is beginning to go mainstream also. The thing that was mentioned using a wink and a nod would be currently discussed publicly. There are shows on major sporting programs that pay to wager daily. It’s really a boom time for sports bettors, and also the playing field is still open for those who are not used to the match.
Retail sportsbooks and gambling apps are still established in legalized countries. Because of this, gaming lovers have lots of legal on the web and portable sportsbook options. Online sports betting sounds somewhat complicated at first, but it is going to feel a whole lot less foreign when you get some experience.
This guide intends to help decrease your learning curve tremendously. Let us start out with the basic principles.
Bettors try to predict the outcomes and create their very best bet on which the result is. Bettors an average of a bet with a sportsbook. Odds-makers at the assorted novels will put lines or chances for its readily available wagers.
Essentially, chances clearly show the chances of a certain event occurring. Additionally, they indicate the potential yield for all those that gamble successfully. Sportsbook provides a vast selection of markets. From leading sports like NFL gambling along with NBA gambling to niche offerings like cricket along with rugby, you will discover lots of wagering opportunities out there. The very same applies in regards to betting types.
The most ordinary bet simply entails selecting a winning side. But, you will find lots of different means to bet and facets to think about. Sports betting is a popular pastime that’s bringing more attention thanks to legalization in several markets.
You are brand new to sports gambling and prepared to begin. Now what?
Beginning any new undertaking might be overwhelming initially, but a lot of times you’ll find it isn’t really that tough once you start grinding. That is true with sports gambling. Much like many other scenarios, it is ideal, to begin with, the fundamentals and builds from there:
Advantages of sports-betting: Sports gambling has ever turned into a blessing for every one of those countries that have ever entered. A clinic that has been illegal has become generating additional tax revenue. What’s more, occupations are and continue to be established in each new industry.
Steps to Start Betting on Sports: it may not be much easier to begin gambling on sports betting. Most operators are working out the legal niches, and enrolling in an account using them is just a snap. From that point, you are able to remove and add funds from the accounts easily and start researching chances.
The Mechanics of sports-betting: Among the coolest things concerning sports gambling is that you’re able to get as complex as you prefer at your own pace. It is possible to keep it simple and follow the fundamentals or dip in with both feet to boost your level of skill from the beginning. That is ultimately your decision personally; also there isn’t any wrong or right strategy. It boils down to a question of what is most effective for you personally.
Knowing the chances: that really is a place that could confuse those brand new to the match. A brief, chances inform one of that the suggested probabilities and possible yield for powerful wagers. For a simplified case, negative chances imply a well-liked and less yield potential. While favorable chances point out an underdog and also the capacity for larger yields.
For every one of those categories, there exists a ton more to comprehend proceeding forward. As you progress, you’re able to research issues, like chances, in a great deal more detail. Provided that those foreign notions will develop into something that you know well.
Sports betting can be exceedingly enjoyable, and additionally, there is the opportunity to earn a profit whilst doing whatever you like. That is clearly a win-win scenario, however, additionally, it is critical to get into it using a transparent mind.
Almost always there is the prospect of hitting a significant parlay you are likely to have rich using overnight. A sports betting is hard and maybe quite a grind, but that is also part of this allure. Begin sports gambling using realistic expectations sufficient reason for a laser-like give attention to being more disciplined. For all those not used to the match, you need to think about the money you’re wagering as a portion of one’s entertainment budget.
Just bet what you’re comfortable gambling and do not exceed this amount. There’ll be a lot of time and energy to enlarge your bets as your skills improve; therefore there is no requirement to dash it as long as you are learning. Last but most certainly not least, bear in mind this is something which you ought to discover entertaining and fun. In case it stops sense like this — or in case you struck on the inevitable losing series — you shouldn’t be reluctant to simply take a rest. Having a step backward and forth representing somewhat will permit you to tweak your approach and plan where required. Obtaining a breather and obtaining additional view might cause one to feel rejuvenated if you are prepared to play.
Sportsbook operators are for-profit entities. Therefore, they are not only providing a gambling market place out from the goodness in the hearts. The target for these may be exactly the very same as you: to earn money. Novels that do not accomplish that goal won’t be around as long. Odds-makers who always have a beating will gradually be trying to find a fresh field of work. Nevertheless, the overwhelming bulk of operators that are established are excellent at what they’re doing.
They turn into a profit as an outcome. Therefore, just how do they accomplish so? Sports-books earn money by the commissions that they collect for shooting action on stakes. That can be known as the vig or even juice. Let us consider a good illustration working with a normal group of point spread odds of -110.
In case your bet is more correct, you are going to reunite 0.90, and that’s the own 0% bet and a benefit of .90. So just why not double your funds? That is since the bookmaker has essentially maintained a proportion of their yield for themselves. Additionally, think that the operator can also be taking bets on each side of the equation.
In an ideal environment, they’ll receive even actions on each side. 1 / 2 of those stakes will likely triumph, as the spouse will probably soon lose. The internet of the things they collect, no matter what they cover out, reflects profit. Obviously, maybe not all of the stakes will bring even actions, which explains the reason you are going to observe chances move once they have been published. In case the book maker’s accountability using a single side of a result gets too great, they’ll create the likelihood a little more positive on the opposite hand to draw in more activity.
Mistakes Need to Avoid
Whenever you’re beginning with something brand new, it’s vital to see that there is going to soon be a learning curve. Mistakes will occur on the way, however, you are able to study on everyone and boost your general knowledge base.
If it comes to sports gambling, you are likely to make mistakes. You’ll miss something which appears obvious on your handicapping ahead of this match. Or you can set a bet on chances that unexpectedly turn into far more positive on the negative you’re leaning. It’s going to occur, and there is absolutely no solution to protect against every mistake. But, you’ll be able to prevent many big pitfalls which might create your sports gaming profession shortlived.
Do Not Chase Your Losses: You are likely to drop a few stakes. Any sports bettor who lets you know to win all of the time is not really being honest. When reductions happen, analyze the reason why suck it up and then proceed. Don’t make an effort to “get “ by Slimming down since you are “because of a win” Which is an instant recipe for tragedy.
Do not Bet On your mind: It is critical to own a crystal clear funding in mind for their own sports gambling console. Simply deposit that which you could manage to reduce, and also withstand the desire to go ahead when things are not moving away. If your long term budget has been gone, then simply take that as a chance to have a rest and return back into it having a transparent head.
Do not Be Unrealistic or over-estimate Your Skills: From nature, most sports fans are enthusiastic. Some people may take this for the extreme and feel as though they’re always right and therefore are not able to create a lot of money gambling. You shouldn’t be this guy or woman. Understand that you are going to have work to accomplish aside from your sports consciousness grade, and keep your profit aims reasonable.
Sports gambling can be considered a wonderful source of entertainment and also a potentially rewarding enterprise. Nevertheless, the probability of happening increases whenever you stop the aforementioned advantages.
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Introducing Gambit | A New Swagbucks Partnership

Hello there, before we get started here, I have a couple things to get out of the way.
  1. You must be 18+.
  2. This post involves gambling. Even though I'm going to explain ways that are likely to help you profit regardless, understand there is a chance for loss.
  3. I'm writing this post with the assumption that you're already familiar with Swagbucks. If you aren't, familiarize yourself and come back ;). Read more about Swagbucks here.

Introducing Gambit Rewards

Prodege sure likes to get some bomb ass partnerships (like the recent partnership with Aspiration, or when they tried boosting their sales by discounting SB), and now Gambit is their latest partnership.
Gambit is a company that started last year (although more recently launched) and they started out partnered with Swagbucks.
Here's how Gambit works:
  1. You'll sign up for Gambit. (If you'd want to sign up under a ref link, find a referrral train in the comments). There is a sign up bonus of 100 tokens (worth roughly $1).
  2. You can then use your tokens to 'play games'. (Playing games = betting on sport outcomes, really).
  3. If you win the bet, the tokens you win from the bet will become, "Available winnings."
  4. You can then cash out your winnings.
There's a lot of important notes to be made here, as well as the potential use case where Gambit can be an extremely smart method to cash out your SB.

How the Swagbucks partnership works

Swagbucks' partnership with Gambit includes two nice features:
  1. The ability to convert SB to Gambit tokens at a 50% bonus (200 SB -> 300 Gambit tokens, where 300 gambit tokens is worth 300 SB)
  2. The ability to convert Gambit "available winnings" to SB at a 1:1 ratio.
You can purchase 300 Gambit tokens for 200 SB here.
NOTE: You cannot convert your gambit tokens into SB immediately. You must first gamble your tokens, and you can then cash out your winnings.

How to Play (and hopefully win) the games

The first thing I want to make clear here is that you're betting on actual sports. No matter what advice I give you to increase your odds of winning, understand that you're risking regardless, so keep this in mind.
Having said that, here's some advice.
Since you're required to gamble your gambit tokens before you can cash them out (and lock in that 50% SB bonus), there's no reason to take big risks. What I have done is wait for a game to appear where the winner is extremely easy to predict. In my case, I bet my gambit tokens on the Lions vs Vikings game that happened yesterday. The winner was obvious. The Lions are bad (which makes me sad), and the Vikings is one of the best teams. Although my winnings for the bet were only 1.12x, the real winnings come from the 50% bonus you'll lock in on your SB. Here's a SS of this case.
It doesn't make sense to actually use Gambit as an actual sports betting site, by the way. There's better options. I'll talk more about that in the conclusion.

Cashing out

Cashing out your available winnings on Gambit is a little interesting.
If you'd like, you could cash out for USD at a rate where 1 Gambit token is worth $0.009 (a 9% fee). There's a $5 minimum. I wouldn't recommend this, because you could otherwise cash out to SB at a 1:1 rate (no fees), where there's no minimum (?).
IMPORTANT: Transferring to SB seems to be broken currently. According to a SB rep, it should be coming back soon.

Conclusion / Is it worth it?

So in a perfect case, you would then convert your Gambit winnings to SB, and then from SB back to Gambit tokens at a 50% bonus.
But is it worth it?
The one last thing that I noticed that was mentioned by spacecadetjesus is how terrible the vig that Gambit charges is.
The catch is that the vig Gambit charges on a bet is highway robbery and clearly targeted towards people who don't know any better.
Just looking at the spreads: a standard line at any reputable betting site is -110. That means you bet 110 to profit 100 -- the 10% is the vig. On Gambit you have to bet 110 to profit 79. Holy crap. The best sports bettors in the world would get crushed. I assume the moneylines are just as bad.
I tend to recommend against gambling, but I feel like this option may be useful for some people who may be interested in receiving PayPal below the $25 minimum that SB sets (although taking a risk), or people who are interested in sports betting, and finds the 50% bonus attractive, despite the low payouts as mentioned by spacecadetjesus.
There are more comments in this thread that discuss the viability of gambling on Gambit.
The last thing I want to mention is that Gambit is really shady loophole in the sense that they allow anyone to use their site, even though sports betting online isn't even allowed everywhere in the US. They get around this by saying that nobody is actually gambling real money because the basis of the company is that you're gambling with loyalty points from sites (ex: Swagbucks). This article mentions that they want to expand to many loyalty programs - not just Swagbucks.
The same article also explains the benefit of a loyalty program wanting to use Gambit as follows:
Additionally, the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 15 now stipulates that loyalty points must be treated as deferred revenue, which can weigh heavily on companies' bottom lines. By letting consumers transfer points for tokens, Gambit creates a way for brands to convert unused points into revenue and get them off their books.
So, uh... take that as you wish.
Alright, please comment your thoughts on Gambit. Do you think it's worth the risk for the 50% bonus on gambit tokens? Or, in the case that someone really wanted to use their SB for gambling, do you think that someone would be better off cashing out for $25 PayPal and using the $25 to gamble on a more established site (without the bonus)?
Also, I don't give a shit about referrals here, they're too confusing for me. Please feel free to start a referral train below :).
Last thing: richpistilli claims to be the founder of Gambit, hopefully he'll come into this thread and answers further questions.
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The first informed, admittedly, is written tongue-in-cheek

The first informed, admittedly, is written tongue-in-cheek
The first informed, admittedly, is written tongue-in-cheek. Let's face it; gambling is fun! If you boast of being a teetotaler, then you definitely might breakdown and admit your frailty; you might be a gambler too! You might fool yourself, nevertheless, you cannot fool the entire world remainder. Gambling is inherent in the human psyche. If you say "no," then you definitely are lying to self and shame you! Of course, many desist from overt gambling and would not even play a game title of dominoes or play a sport of solitaire. But it's not the complete extent to chance taking.

I think the key factor or major reason people usually select internet gambling presently is caused by the fact that you can gamble within the comfort of your own house, all that you should get is a computer plus a proper Internet connection and you are willing to win big on the slots or whatever other game tickles your fancy. Bare planned you are forced to constitute legal age prior to gambling online. This is excellent for those who do not live near an internet casino and still have to go to gamble somewhere. 승인전화 없는 놀이터

Then, you need to just invest the money you can afford to lose. You always have to know you are about to reduce some money when you enter an online casino and therefore, you ought to be prepared for it. Don't take money together with you when you go gambling. Leave your cards at home and leave whenever you view you have too little money left in your wallet.

all - in !
To them, they don't win 100% of the money. They only win a few percentage points, nonetheless they take action continuously, whether you win or lose. At the races the vig, or sign up for is enormous, around 20% on straight bets as well as higher on exotic bets. The best bets in casinos are often only all-around break even for players. If you sit there and keep giving back just a little on each hand, toss from the dice, spin with the wheel, you'll eventually lose all of it.

  1. Certainly, the best sites offers the greatest number of games, from blackjack to Texas Hold'em, from classic slots to video slots; therefore, ensure that you look at the number and various games the website provides. Every gambler knows which games they prefer (meaning the methods they are the very best at, or the ones in which those are the luckiest) and these include every one of the hottest games, and even a number of the newest which aren't also known outside the gambling aficionados.
submitted by MTguide to u/MTguide [link] [comments]

Beating Asian Bookies in 2018 - Mission Impossible?

I wanted to see how sharp the bookies are in their opening odds and what edge someone could have with the perfect model.
I took the the opening odds for all home wins from 5 random league and converted those into a vig free home win percentage.
Then I looked at the game results and compared those to the bookmaker's predictions.
I had the bookie's vig free home win % in one cell and in another I put 1 for a home win and 0 for an away win/draw.
Then I took the average home win % for all the games in my database (8+ years worth) and compared that to the average results (the cell with 1's and 0's)
Here's what I found.
Difference between bookie's predicted home win % and actual home win %.
MLS: 2.98%
Liga MX: 1.54%
Asian Champions League: 1.4%
Argentinian Primera B: 0.33%
English Premier League: 0.23%
First of all, does this makes sense? Is this the right way of determining line efficiency? I didn't think that the opening odds would be this efficient.
If these numbers are correct, how does anyone make money on the popular league like the Premier League and US Sports? 0.23% is just too low no matter how much volume you can get down.
  1. Is the secret being selective with your bets? So, if a perfect model for MLS could achieve a maximum 2.98% ROI betting every game. A more selective model, maybe betting 1/5th of all games could produce a ROI of 8%+ (random number)? Am I thinking about this correctly?
  2. Is making a profit from Asian books really possible for someone that's not a programming/math super genius? And when I say make a profit, I mean making enough money from betting that you can do this full time. I don't want to put in the effort to learn the skills I need if the only people making money from betting are the big syndicates, bookmakers, and scummy tipsters.
If beating Asian books is possible, what are some resources that can take me from math/programming newbie to someone that can build a profitable model?
Maybe some paid courses or online tutoring would be a good idea to speed up the learning process? I tried learning R with datacamp but found it pretty difficult. Maybe I'll have an easier time with Python?
A few years ago I spent a lot of time gathering data and building an Elo/Poisson based model in Excel. Even hired someone to build me a scraper so I could factor in lineup strength as one of the variables. In the end even when using advance metrics like xG I couldn't come up with something that beat the closing line.
I think the reason I wasn't successful is because I was implementing things incorrectly. My inputs may have been good but I was taking the wrong steps when it came to coming up with the outputs (each team's predicted goals > home/win odds using Poisson)
Everything I've seen online when it comes to modeling soccer is either too primitive (no profit) or the math behind it is too complicated for me to understand. For example the math parts in the Dixon & Coles paper are like reading something in Chinese for me.
edit: I searched around soccerbetting after making this post and it seems like some people are making a profit in major leagues with what seem like basic shot based models. Seems a little too good to be true to be honest.
3) Right now my main source of income is online poker. For those of you familiar with poker, in terms of difficulty, how does creating profitable models compare with poker? I'm assuming that it's a lot harder to make a profit in leagues where gameday limits are 30k+.
For example.
Max $500 Pinnacle limit league = 50NL
Max $1000 Pinnacle limit league = 100NL
Max $2000 Pinnacle limit league = 200NL
Max $5000 Pinnacle limit league = 500NL
Max $10000 Pinnacle limit league = 1000NL
I've already had some success with betting. I made a good amount of money following tipsters (believe it or not) in the past. Was profitable over a 3 year stretch betting huge volume. Bankroll was big enough that I had a cheeky 5K bet on Japan to win the 2014 World Cup lol.
Then after buying a condo and fancy car I hit a nasty downswing that pretty much wiped me out. I presumed that the market got a lot smarter (or maybe I just I was just on the positive side of variance for thousands of bets) and the tipsters I was following were no longer profitable, so I gave up betting.
Now I play online poker full time, but I'm not passionate about it. I love football and I love betting. I want to find a way to win again.
submitted by mostmodest- to SoccerBetting [link] [comments]

Peer to Peer Sports Betting

I don’t currently bet on sports. I joined Draft Kings but quickly got overwhelmed with the high amount of maintenance required to set up your team and keeping track of bye weeks and injuries. I definitely don’t want to place bets with a mob bookie who is going to break my legs if I don’t pay up, nor do I want to travel to a state licensed establishment to place a bet. There is no current market leader for placing sports bets online in the public’s mindspace at the moment. I believe that due to the recent favorable Supreme Court ruling there is an enormous market opportunity for a peer to peer betting site that either friends or strangers can use so that they can place sports bets with confidence.
So how would a peer to peer sports bet site operate? Kind of like the financial options market. There is a football game where between the Giants and the Cowboys. The Giants are favored by 4 points, and site offers it as a game you can bet on. Someone takes the Giants to win. The bet is not complete until someone else takes the opposite side. Both parties are putting their own money, the site does not in itself do payouts drawn from its own cash holdings like a traditional bookie would. There is no vig. The site takes a small flat fee from the winner.
Would love some feedback on this idea. What are the roadblocks?
submitted by kmoh74 to Startup_Ideas [link] [comments]

An interesting new sports betting platform: powered by Eventum.

0xgame is a zero fee pool betting system where people play against each other and winners take money from losers in proportion to their betting amount. Odds represent the ratio between the bets on 1 (home team), X (draw) and 2 (away team) sides. The system is implemented in the smart contract (view the source code below every match), with the resolution coming from a decentralized oracle (Eventum) which is transported through a decentralized data carrier (Oraclize) and TLS Notary. All bets are full-time result bets (90min + stoppage time) without extra time or penalties. Visual aid
What is pool betting and how do the odds work?
Pool betting (or Parimutuel betting) is a betting system where people play against each other and all the bets are pooled together. Odds and the size of profit/loss depends solely on the ratio between bets in each betting pool (i.e. winners take money from losers in proportion to their stake). Odds are not fixed and are changing every time a new bet is added to one of the pools until the betting is closed - in this happens when the game starts.
Odds comparison with traditional betting sites
Odds from traditional betting sites are compared with odds dynamically calculated as ratios between our betting pools. The percentage indicates how much the odds on 0xgame are better.
Are there any fees/cuts?
There are no fees (i.e. no vig/cut) and all the funds are simply transferred from the losing to the winning side. You are simply paying the normal gas fee to the Ethereum network when you are interacting with the smart contracts.
All in all it seems like an interesting project to keep an eye on. I don't understand where the incentive is for them to do this since it seems like they don't have a fee, however that doesn't mean they can't ever have a fee. I do really like the idea of cutting out middle men, in gambling or anything else for that matter. There's no need to have unnecessary elements leeching off of a system without adding anything. The odds are determined by a free market as well it seems like, so there's potential for manipulation there if big money gets involved. I don't really gamble in sports or otherwise, so I was hoping there are others here who can pick this apart a bit more analytically than I. Thoughts?
submitted by multivac7223 to ICOAnalysis [link] [comments]

An interesting new sports betting platform: powered by Eventum.

0xgame is a zero fee pool betting system where people play against each other and winners take money from losers in proportion to their betting amount. Odds represent the ratio between the bets on 1 (home team), X (draw) and 2 (away team) sides. The system is implemented in the smart contract (view the source code below every match), with the resolution coming from a decentralized oracle (Eventum) which is transported through a decentralized data carrier (Oraclize) and TLS Notary. All bets are full-time result bets (90min + stoppage time) without extra time or penalties. Visual aid
What is pool betting and how do the odds work?
Pool betting (or Parimutuel betting) is a betting system where people play against each other and all the bets are pooled together. Odds and the size of profit/loss depends solely on the ratio between bets in each betting pool (i.e. winners take money from losers in proportion to their stake). Odds are not fixed and are changing every time a new bet is added to one of the pools until the betting is closed - in this happens when the game starts.
Odds comparison with traditional betting sites
Odds from traditional betting sites are compared with odds dynamically calculated as ratios between our betting pools. The percentage indicates how much the odds on 0xgame are better.
Are there any fees/cuts?
There are no fees (i.e. no vig/cut) and all the funds are simply transferred from the losing to the winning side. You are simply paying the normal gas fee to the Ethereum network when you are interacting with the smart contracts.
All in all it seems like an interesting project to keep an eye on. I don't understand where the incentive is for them to do this since it seems like they don't have a fee, however that doesn't mean they can't ever have a fee. I do really like the idea of cutting out middle men, in gambling or anything else for that matter. There's no need to have unnecessary elements leeching off of a system without adding anything. The odds are determined by a free market as well it seems like, so there's potential for manipulation there if big money gets involved. I don't really gamble in sports or otherwise, so I was hoping there are others here who can pick this apart a bit more analytically than I. Thoughts?
submitted by multivac7223 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

How Can Bet Online On Sports Easily

With some estimates people wager over 250 billion dollars a year online sports, using $100 million bet on the Superbowl alone.
The reason sports gambling is widespread is that it makes watching sports more intriguing, and it can also be lucrative for people that take the opportunity for you to learn about chances, picking winners, online lineup shopping and how to make use of on the web bonuses profitably.
How Can Bet Online On Sports Easily?
This guide starts with the basics principle of sports online gambling on the web and then evolves into strategies designed to acquire money gambling on sports betting.
You have three alternatives for gambling money on sports take a visit to one of the Las Vegas sportsbooks, look for a local bookie, or join at an internet sportsbook. Of the three options, on the web gaming websites are the most comfortable and most suitable way to bet money on sports betting.
Beneath you'll get our high recommendations for legitimate online bookmakers where you can gamble real money on the web.Databet88 is the best and safest place to bet online.
Be careful merely linking any internet sports gambling site you come across as there is a vast multitude of scams on the internet. Please do your research before joining any internet sportsbook other than the ones over the above list.
Locating the ideal internet sportsbook can become a frustrating and confusing procedure. You have to be sure that you take into account all the critical factors and you need a reliable comparison of the various sportsbooks against each other.
You must at least devote a significant amount of time doing this, or you can take advantage of this website as a way to narrow down your search and get the ideal one for your fast and having hardly any effort on your part. Look over the reviews and other information to become acquainted with internet sportsbooks in general and to match yourself using one of them that could suit you the best.
They offer you a fantastic idea of the overall texture and benefits that the reviewed sportsbooks offer. Here are a couple of other online gambling pointers that will help you to get started.
Read whatever you can about the company, the gambling chances offered, the available promotions, payment options, and their customer care choices.
It is essential to check out the conditions and conditions of the website and the various incentives to avoid surprises. Most spurs have a wagering condition (sometimes called a rollover requirement). It's smart to be aware of just how much you have to wager to become able to cash out your bonus money.
Also, make sure to check the minimum and maximum deposit and withdrawal limits to be sure that they can fit your bankroll.
Make use of the Betting Blog's Resource Section
If you are a total newcomer and wish to learn just how to place bets, then plenty of gambling internet sites will supply you a step-by-step guide to gambling. These are generally invaluable and may help you start gambling fast.
Establish your priorities. Allocate capital wisely. You are learning just how to bet. Risking your entire bankroll are the most spontaneous thing to do.
Start with small stake bets and gradually increase the amount just when you are entirely convinced that you have realized how that particular bet works. You want, and as your interest is not momentary, it gets vitally essential to learn to manage your bankroll wisely. แทงบอล
Bearing this in mind, you can now begin searching for internet sportsbooks or other gambling services and products that make online gambling for novices easy.
Do not Gamble Your Rent Money
Just bet the amount you can afford to reduce. This is supposed to be capital that you have gone after you have met your other regular expenses.
Do not utilize money out of your household budget to finance your betting account because you may not be able to make up because of the gap if you lose more than you had bargained for.
The money line bet is quite simple, its a wager on which team will gain a video game and is the most popular way to bet hockey and baseball, however, does also exists like basketball, football, and other sports betting.
Inside this type of wager, the payout is the same regardless of exactly how many points or runs the team you wagered wins. If you're brand new to sports gambling, you will need to understand American chances, because this is an enormous part of money online gaming.
American chances always make use of a 3 or even digit the whole number expressed as either positive or negative. When dealing with a negative money lineup, this reflects just how much a bettor must stake to acquire $100.
As an example a lineup of -180 takes $180 to win $100, therefore here if your bet is compelling, you maintain the $180.00 you staked and get back $100 in winnings. When dealing with a particular money line this how a $100 stake can pay for.
As an example in case you stake $100 to a lineup of +160 if your bet wins you maintain the $100 you staked and receive $160 in winnings.
Whether this authentic is irrelevant; today point spread gambling is the most popular way to wager on America's two frequently wagered upon sports betting, football, and basketball.
The basic idea behind a place spread is really to make the video game closer to a 50/50 proposal a handicap is added.
The way this works is should you wager on Lions at the finish of the video game you add 10.5 points into the Lions score and then compare it into Saints actual score to identify that wins.
Alternatively, if you gamble on New Orleans Saints then at the ending of the video game you need to subtract 10.5 points out of the Saints score and then compare it with all the actual Lions score to find out which team wins.
Important to notice is that all-purpose spread wagers also have a price. Together with most all bookies and Las Vegas sports novels in the event the price is perhaps not otherwise stated then -110 is assumed (Risk $110 to win $100( that computes as $1.10 staked for every single dollar you wish to gain).
This extra price you're charged is described as vig or juice and is the way the gambling internet sites and bookies make their profit. When gambling on the internet, you'll discover prices often are listed, and they're perhaps not the same to either side.
As an example, you may find Detroit Lions -115 / New Orleans Saints -105. The reason behind the distinction is that bookies make an effort to get 50/50 propositions on gambling lines, but sometimes this isn't possible as one side is somewhat more likely to pay at that time spread than the other.
There a couple of issues about point spreads worth noting. In cases where point spreads have half things included (example -2.5 / / +2.5), there is not any way for the video game to tie. Point spread does not always utilize half things nevertheless.
Sometimes the idea spread is a whole number in the event the video game leads to a handicap tie it is regarded as a push, but also known as virtually no action.
Additionally, I will complete by telling while point spreads are prevalent in both football and basketball they are available for other sports as well. As an example in baseball and baseball alternatives into the money, the lineup is offered called the puck lineup and run list which are stakes that make use of a spot spread.
Given that we've covered gambling on the idea spread, it's time for you to check at one of the most comfortable types of stakes to understand, totals or oveunder gaming.
Here you're wagering on whether the total quantity of points scored by both teams is going to be under or over the submitted gambling total.
As an example in baseball, this bet may be oveunder 8.5 runs in baseball oveunder 5.5 scores, even in football oveunder 40.5 things, from basketball oveunder 200 points.
Learning profitable sports gambling is not an easy task. You can learn more detailed information about sports gambling by merely reading novels such as Assessing the Odds of Sports Betting from King Yao, and Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong.
Only realize that neither are such novels are planning to make you a winning bettor. However, they may receive your mind thinking like a smart sports bettor.
Betting is competitive, and individuals beat it exploiting on leaks of recreational gambling internet sites and local bookies. The more those who understand just how to secure the greater chances run dry.
Also understand this is within an industry full of scams such as selection sellers, stat products and services and all kinds of other items maybe not overly helpful to bettors. However, if you stay in the act, read the two novels we indicated, and grab small nuggets on forums, then it is going to start to develop together. แทงบอลออนไลน์
We all understand several punters that make secure living gambling at great limitation sportsbooks, and they indeed were as ignorant as the next guy how it all worked.
The fantastic thing is there are a lot of excellent bonus offers and promotions using online gaming websites that make matters +EV as you slowly learn a little at a time. Just make sure you stay disciplined and not risk any more than a couple of percent of your bankroll on a particular video game.
Please inform us when you have any sports gambling questions. Moreover, with that, we all wish you the absolute very best of chance.
submitted by incrediblemind to thedatabet88 [link] [comments]

Blockchain Makes Unlimited Resources Available to Players in Sports Betting Market

The global prediction market is growing at a very fast rate, and this is due to the increasing level of information available over the various fields of predictive outcomes that make up the industry such as the prediction markets and sportsbooks.
A largely redundant system
Despite how widely the awareness surrounding this industry has spread, the huge potential therein and the flexibility that it could offer to participants is yet to be achieved mainly because of the current structure of the industry. For instance, the centralized nature of traditional betting platforms implies that users deposit funds while earning no interests and more or less leaving such funds dormant for long periods of time. Also, on these platforms the rates at which betting odds are renewed or refreshed do not represent real-time data efficiently, therefore participants are deprived of the opportunities to have the best odds per time.
Another setback that comes with the existing system is the process of scanning various sportsbooks to find the best line, which is time-consuming. This process, combined with the liquidity issues discussed above, leads bettors to spend time doing monotonous, inefficient work, with a fraction of their working capital available.
Unleashing the resident potential
By implementing blockchain technology, BlitzPredict is focused on releasing the numerous underlying potentials of the betting industry to make for an efficient and trusted practice amidst improved beneficial opportunities for participants.
Such issues of trust and liquidity are still lingering among participants in the betting industry, sports betting “experts” aren’t held accountable for their predictions. Experts can lie about their track records and claim they bet at numbers that never existed. As it stands, being a successful sports betting tout is more an exercise in marketing than in accurately predicting the results of events. Also, the rivalry that exists between different analytics groups who compete independently toward the same goal, instead of cooperating makes for a non-progressive industry.
By providing a suite of smart contract tools for users to better interact with sportsbooks and prediction markets, a transparent and trusted ecosystem is being introduced by BlitzPredict. On this platform, users will be able to set up smart contracts to execute when specified criteria are met. The goal is to bring the power of an advanced betting syndicate’s tools to our users.
The blockchain efficiency
While also functioning as an aggregator of sportsbooks and prediction markets, by constantly refreshing the odds like a stock market ticker, it will be ensured that users will always get the best odds available for a given bet. Blockchain implementation streamlines the process to make prediction markets as simple to navigate as traditional sportsbooks.
One of the utmost desires of users of blockchain products is how efficient the platforms exchange process can function, especially in the spontaneous prediction market, where players want to cash out and take profit as often as they can. The Bancor protocol that is implemented by BlitzPredict enables users to convert their tokens without waiting for any third-party buyer or an external exchange. This same protocol further provides liquidity and low rates for users of the platform.
Achieving independence
The ability to function from an independent angle is a key character in the prediction market. This can only be possible for participants when they are equipped with sufficient analytical tools that will help them understand the market direction in real time. This is one of the rare benefits that the platform offers by incentivizing sports analytics experts who contribute to the platform and work to create powerful predictive models.
The secure and streamlined implementations of blockchain protocols will onboard casual users to partner operations, bringing users with no previous blockchain experience to the low-vig, high-volume options in the space, and deliver a beautiful, easy-to-use experience.
submitted by aesonbitcoin to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Straight betting, fights and how the hell bookies make money (X-Post from /r/Sportsbetting)

Originally posted on /sportsbetting but the only answer that was given was essentially "Because they are smart and have lots of cash".
I've been looking at the math behind straight bets and realized that even with a vig incorporated, a bookie still regularily encounters a significant risk of not having their books balanced. To me it doesn't make sense that large players who are notoriously risk adverse would gamble on that without a guaranteed return. This seems to be especially true in straight bets with only 2 possible outcomes and little no chance for some additional level to bet, such as the spread. Boxing, NHL, MMA for example.
So how do bookies (especially the large corporate players) actually make a return on these and reduce their risk? Do they push for acummulative parlays, yankee bets or lucky-15/31 bets? Is there some sort of math that allows the margin to be calculated to only take bets as long as they allow the profit margin to exist?
I'm Canadian and sports betting here is very limited (MMA betting for example doesn't exist in any of our government run gaming organizations, we just have simple major league sports proline betting). Some friends were talking about a trip to Vegas and I started consuming as much material as possible. :) BTW your subreddit has been incredibly helpful.
submitted by CodeNewfie to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Croatoan, Earth : Church of Echoes : Part 7

Croatoan, Earth : Church of Echoes : Part 7

:: Menathauk Deep Void Scoping Station :: Tongaree City :: Jolliox ::
"I . . . I have no idea. I think your space junk just destroyed the Wyvreena," Dax replied, rolling his chair down the bank of monitors again to retrieve the talk box. He put in a new call to the VMIS and waited.
"What kind of ship moves like that?" Avigal asked. "None I've ever seen. Why would they destroy . . . What kind of people are they?" She moved over and quickly brought up a data document on the Wyvreena. "There were over forty people on that ship." she declared. He could only shake his head and shrug. He didn't have any answers for her.
In all his years of manning the scopes, he'd never seen a ship destroyed. What was more poignant however was that any one of the Jujen ships in orbit over Jolliox had the firepower necessary to reduce Tongaree City to rubble with a single shot, and yet, this unknown ship managed to destroy one of those very same ships in a matter of seconds. It was terrifying, and the questions it engendered only made the situation worse.
If they destroyed the Wyvreena, does that mean they also intend to attack the planet? If so, are they the enemy the Jujen needed the Far Fathers and Mothers to fight? Are they here as part of the war, or do they have another agenda? The questions kept coming.
"Maybe it is void rocks. What if there was more than just the one we picked up on scope? What the Wyvreena was simply overcome? I mean we really don't know what happened out there, right? It could have been something simple. It could be explained. It doesn't have to be some alien ship out there. We don't really know," Avigal said, trying to convince him that what they saw wasn't what they saw.
He tried to buy in to her logic but couldn't. The tag had turned yellow. His traveler was a ship. Confirming that was the Wyvreena's final act. He doubted the traveler would ever reach Jolliox, and even if it did, he lived in Tongaree City. It was one of the old cities. Other than hosting the headquarters for Blue Corps, it was unimpressive. It was strategically boring. There were no military bases here or air fields or weapon manufacturers. It was just a landlocked city slowly being devoured by the jungle that surrounded it.
"Void Movement Intelligence Section," Kortahand greeted gruffly.
"It's Dax. I reported the intermittent in quadrant two. We were tracking the Wyvreena, monitoring its interception. It disappeared from our scopes. Did something happen to it?" Dax asked.
"We're media sealed," the man told him rudely.
"Give me something. You told me you'd let me know what it was," Dax reminded him.
"We're media sealed," Kortahand repeated. There was a pause. "I can't tell you how it was destroyed. That's confidential. You get it?" He terminated the call without a word. Dax let the hand holding the talk box drop into his lap, startled by Kortahand's response. Avigal bumped his arm in an attempt to get him to share what was said.
"Media sealed," he reported.
"Oh my Turtle!" Avigal breathed. "It really destroyed the Wyvreena, didn't it?" The grim look he gave her was all the answer she required. They both returned their attention to the scope and watched as three more ships were dispatched. One by one, they made the jump into quadrant two. The traveler appeared on screen just as the first of the three made the jump, but disappeared before the second vanished. All three ships appeared in the path of the Dax's traveler and far enough out as to give them time to prepare.
"Talk to him," Avigal suggested, after they'd watched their traveler appear and disappear three more times. Each time it advanced by three sectors. It would reach the three ships in a matter of minutes.
"I already talk to him. He's our supervisor. It's kind of unavoidable."
"Talk to him," she pressed.
"By the Great Turtle, would you please leave it alone," he exclaimed. "It's this every time. Every time we talk, you just go on and on about me and him. We're grieving, Avigal. It takes time. I'm not going to talk with him about it. He's not going to talk to me about it. And I swear by all that is holy and good that if you don't stop interfering in this, I'm going to use my own apathy VIG to escape these conversations. It's getting old." She rose from her seat in a huff and stalked off back to her own console.
He didn't care that she was mad. He hated going off on her like that, but she just wouldn't butt out. She was an only child. She'd never experienced the aftermath of a brand poisoning. She didn't know what it was like to live with people you loved that you could never touch where everyday the first thing you donned was your skein. She was right about one thing. It was the corporation's fault. They were responsible for the forced segregation of the Rikjonix. They created the condition that killed his brother. Percival was just as much a victim as Lossi was.
Then again, they didn't really start it. Magpie did. The immortal visitor from the void who'd shared the secrets of the VIG with Jolliox. If anyone was to blame, it was him. He'd claimed the VIGs would protect them from the Jujen. And the VIGs did, but only the adults. He really wanted to blame someone for his brother's death, but blaming Magpie was like blaming the Great Turtle. It was an exercise in futility. The truth was, his brother's death was an accident, and no matter how angry he got, placing blame couldn't bring him back. It was everyone's fault, and it wasn't anyone's fault. It was the world they lived in. He could go all the way back and blame the Great Turtle for creating humanity if he really wanted to blame someone, but he knew it was unhealthy. A man couldn't really live with hate in his heart. He was beginning to think Avigal might be right in regards to him and Percival. Maybe it was time to forgive him.
He watched the three ships close in on his traveler and waited. The whole spectacle was surreal to him. He was witnessing the progression of an impossible ship moving at an impossible speed that uses an impossibly powerful weapon to destroy ships ten times its size. And the fact that the AVIS was sending three ships boggled his mind. Whatever was headed toward Jolliox was evidently far more powerful than anything they possessed. All of their technology was gleaned from the fall of the Iastar Vodduv. He was staggered by what they'd learn from this newcomer. His mind went to work imagining all of the advance tech his traveler must possess and wondered if they'd try and take him alive. Powerful he might be, but no one was standing up to the might of three Togo Class Destroyers.
One of the three ships dispatched to handle the traveler suddenly reduced its speed and quickly fell behind. He studied it closer and realized he'd was wrong. The VMIS didn't send out three Togos. It sent out two and the Mezner, a Blue Corps research vessel. Dax studied the other tags, finding it odd that the military would send out a commercial vessel to deal with a potentially hostile invader.
As the two leading ships closed the distance with his traveler, Avigal returned. She didn't talk or look at him. She simply took a seat and joined him in waiting for the action to start. The reappeared in the sector he'd predicted, but this time it didn't immediately jump away. It stayed on course and showed no signs of slowing. It just moved right along, heading straight toward the two ships that were even then moving to intercept it.
"He's in for it now," Avigal murmured.
"Three on one? Yeah, no kidding," Dax responded.
"Not that. Those are Togo Class Destroyers. Two of them are anyway. Look at the mass index for the traveler. He's tiny compared to them." She tried to sound up beat, but he could still hear the worry in her voice.
"Ten pon again? My bet? The traveler turns and flees." He held out his hand to her, waiting for her to seal the deal.
"You still owe me ten from the last bet," she responded.
"How you figure that? I guessed void rock. You guessed void trash. Myreena reported engagement with a ship. We both lost."
"Ship is closer to void trash than a void rock is. I think I win on a technicality."
"I think you most definitely didn't. You taking the bet or what?" he asked, wagging his hand before her to encourage her along.
"They destroy the traveler," she countered, shaking his hand.
"What if the traveler destroys them?" Ting asked. They both turned find one of their co-workers standing behind them with a tea pot in one hand and an empty cup in the other.
"You want in on the bet?" Dax asked, sharing a grin with Avigal.
"Ten pon?" he asked. He shrugged then nodded. "Sure." He offered to refill their cups, but theirs were still full from before. Together the three watched as the traveler closed the distance between it and the Togos. It was over in a matter of seconds. Their tags turned yellow then red then vanished. The third ship turned tail and ran, and judging by its speed, it'd engaged its FTL to help it escape. The traveler passed the spot where the two Togos had been and kept going. It showed no signs of giving up its pursuit. It maintained its course and heading and slowly began to gain on the other ship. Just as it got close, the Mezner jumped. It vanished from qaundrant two and reappeared very near Jolliox.
"What the hell is going on?" Avigal breathed, pushing herself back and away from the monitor. "Ships can't do that. They can't do that, Dax. There are no weapons that can do what we just saw. Are there?" Dax didn't answer. He was still looking the screen.
"It's gone?" he told them. Ting and Avigal turned their attention back to the monitor and found that the traveler was still visible.
"It's still there," Ting pointed out, reaching past him to tap the screen with the traveler was located. Dax shook his head and pointed to the spot where the Mezner should have been. It was gone.
"It's just . . . It just vanished," Dax mumbled. "What are we dealing with?"
"Ten pon," Ting said, setting the tea pot back on its heater. Dax and Avigal turned as one, both their faces sporting the same incredulous look. "I won," Ting pointed out. "The bet was ten pon they'd destroy them. They're gone. Pay up." They reluctantly passed him his winnings.
"How does this not bother you?" Avigal asked of Ting. He pocketed his winnings and shrugged.
"Let the Jujen worry about it. The more of them that thing kills, the less we have to contend with when we finally decide to take this planet back from them. Besides, that little guy there doesn't stand a chance against General Hait's saucers. They're shielded with a full compliment of Battlebirds and void seeders. If that's not enough, there are the million or so burst mines up there shielding the planet from people just like your traveler. I don't know what weapon he's using, but it's about to meet its match. I'm willing to bet another ten pon if you want." He jiggled the coins in his pocket and smiled. They shook their heads. They were done betting. He shrugged and walked off, chuckling quietly to himself.
"What do you mean it vanished?" Avigal asked.
"I mean it vanished. It was here," he tapped the spot in quadrant two, "and reappeared here." He tapped the spot in the lower right hand corner of his monitor near Jolliox in quadrant three. "Then . . ." He shrugged.
"Then what?" she demanded.
"It vanished . . . again."
The look she gave him was filled with fear. It was one thing to watch their traveler destroy ships hundreds of millions of kibbits from home. But knowing it destroyed a ship on their door step was something entirely different. He knew she wanted him to tell her everything was going to be okay, but he wasn't sure he could tell her a lie like that.
Part 3 Part 4 Part 5 Part 6 Part 7 Part 8
Other Books in the Series
Croatoan, Earth: The Saga Begins - Book One
Croatoan, Earth: Tattooed Horizon - Book Two
Croatoan, Earth: Warlocks - Book Three
Please donate and support the writer. He's put a lot of work into this tale.
I accept donations through My email is [email protected].
If you want more, just say so.
submitted by Koyoteelaughter to Koyoteelaughter [link] [comments]

Here's Whats Up in Lib Vig

After making my ground breaking discovery a couple weeks ago, I've taken it upon myself to do a bit of research as to what has happened in King Blake's absence atop the throne. Being a fellow LibVigean, here is what is happening lately:
Kenny would like LibVig to get together and buy 1000 canisters with lids and write ads for awareness of how dangerous throwing butts of the balcony is. We can give them to every building and prevent furniture and units from burning. Kenny will chip in 50$. However, Julio has suggested that there are enough Pabst Blue Ribbon cans lying around the neighborhood that SOME people might get the hint that they can stick their butts in them.
Melissa has noticed lately how much of a hermit she is and is looking for some classes to do during the week. When she was looking at fitness clubs along King, she noticed how expensive they are. She then decided the Goodlife would probably be the best bet for her membership wise, and was seeking input from LV on their experiences at the LV Goodlife. Brad replied, not about the Goodlife, but has suggested picking up a sport instead. There are Ultimate Frisbee leagues at Lamport Stadium (in Liberty). You'll get a great social experience on top of exercise. Best part of his week. Kelsey has also asked if anyone is interested in taking over her Goodlife membership until December for $70 a month.
Mohammed wants to know if there is any location available for lease around 2000 square feet in the area. A friend of his asked, its for a shaverma (yes shaverma, not shwarma) chain looking to expand. He does apologize if this is inappropriate.
Finally, Nicole would like to know if anyone knows how to change the door swing direction of a fridge. She got a new one delivered on Tuesday, and have been taking days off from work waiting for Sears to come, but they aren't showing up now two days in a row. Apparently someone who can fix this needs to be a specialist in refrigerators. Wants someone to come help today. Helpful Howard suggesting just taking out the screws and reassembling it, while Adrian suggested looking at the manual.
And that's whats up in Lib Vig
submitted by ConstableBobrovsky to stevedangle [link] [comments]

How does fight betting work and how the hell does a bookie not go bankrupt?

I've been looking at the math behind straight bets and realized that even with a vig incorporated, a bookie still regularily encounters a significant risk of not having their books balanced. To me it doesn't make sense that large players who are notoriously risk adverse would gamble on that without a guaranteed return.
This seems to be especially true in straight bets with only 2 possible outcomes and little no chance for some additional level to bet, such as the spread. Boxing, NHL, MMA for example.
So how do bookies (especially the large corporate players) actually make a return on these and reduce their risk? Do they push for acummulative parlays, yankee bets or lucky-15/31 bets?
I'm Canadian and sports betting here is very limited (MMA betting for example doesn't exist in any of our government run gaming organizations, we just have simple major league sports proline betting). Some friends were talking about a trip to Vegas and I started consuming as much material as possible. :) BTW your subreddit has been incredibly helpful.
submitted by CodeNewfie to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

ESL One Katowice Day 2 - Quarter Finals

The four Quarterfinal matchups are
  1. Fnatic vs Penta
  2. Virtus Pro vs Keyd Stars
  3. Team EnvyUs vs Na'Vi
  4. NIP vs TSM
For both fantasy sticker picks as well as gambling, most of these are straight forward.
1 - I will be max betting on Fnatic > Penta up to about 85% odds, depending on how greedy I want to be.
Although it was an ESEA match where Fnatic already qualified and had nothing to lose, Penta has shown that they can beat Fnatic. Even still, I don't see Fnatic dropping two maps, especially in a major where $100,000 lies on the line.
2 - I will be max betting VP up to about 85%.
As this is a LAN environment (no chance of DDOS) with $100,000 on the line, VP also has the hometown crowd support. As long as they ban Mirage and Inferno, VP should not drop two maps.
3 - I personally peg Envy > Na'Vi at about 66-70% and will likely be max betting on this as well. There's a definite potential of upset if Na'Vi can clear their heads and come in with a fresh, positive attitude. Na'Vi likely has attitude and cohesion problems during online games in addition to DDOS issues and slightly higher (from Russia/Ukraine to servers on western Europe), but on LAN when large sums of money are at stake, they focus slightly better. From the post match interview, I inferred that morale was still not the best after the stomping they received from Fnatic, but tonight will be a fresh new day for them.
4 - NIP vs TSM is an evenly matched game that I do not recommend betting on if you have few skins or are looking to profit, as these two teams are extremely close in skill, with NIP taking the edge. TSM's performance has been slightly less than stellar.
I envision the odds to be no more than 70/30 or 60/40. Above 70/30, I would bet on TSM as the underdog simply for the value. If NIP lies around 55% and under, I would bet on NIP. However, if you have a small inventory and can't afford to take risks and bet for value, SKIP this match. I'll probably be ICBing on NIP simply because even having a tiny bet makes the match more enjoyable :)
22:00 PST GMT -7 Edit:
Holy shit, the odds on CSGL are still insanely skewed for the favorites.
Current CSGL odds stand at:
1 - 82/18 Envy vs Na'Vi
2 - 81/19 NIP vs TSM
3 - 90/10 Fnatic vs Penta
4 - 86/14 VP vs Keyd
Pinnacles odds stand at about 76.5% Envy (-360), 91.5% Fnatic (-1588), and 92.1% VP (-1766). There is no line for NIP vs TSM at this time.
Nitrogensports copies pinnacles lines, except the vig is higher than pinnacle.
*Unless there's a major swing when Focs or someone else posts, I'm currently aiming to bet very small on Na'Vi and small on TSM. If you have a small bankroll and can't afford to play the odds, then ICB these two matches or simply skip them.
23:00PM PDT GMT -7
Small bets on Na'Vi and TSM. Max Fnatic
Max VP
08:00 PDT GMT-7
Pinnacle opened their line at -487 for NIP > TSM, which is about 82.96%. Subtracting the juice from each side, the expected win rate of NIP is 80.2% at Pinnacle.
I still think this is too high and there's value to be found on TSM.
submitted by Flowerbridge to Flowerbridge [link] [comments]

How I got banned from sports betting... - Arbitrage Betting Explained Win Sports Betting 100% Guaranteed Sure Win Bet On Sports Online and Make Money What is the Vig? Vig - QAP - YouTube How To Start A Sports Betting Business - Critical Review

Sports Betting System - A SET OF RULES a sports bettor uses that work to control the game between himself and the books, designed to eliminate bad bets where the book has a monetary advantage, control the cash flow going both in and out, limit the number and types of bets made, and guide the sports bettor to the games and lines that are most Our free no-vig calculator can be used to calculate no-vig odds and probabilities. It’s an excellent tool for comparing betting markets when line shopping.Too many times bettors will make the mistake of merely seeing a slightly better price on a betting market as a +EV wager but don’t factor in the bookmaker’s vigorish. Sports Betting Vig and How it Works. Vig (which is short for the Yiddish term “vigorish”) is what a bookmaker charges a sports bettor for placing his/her wager. It is also called the “juice,” “cut,” or “take.” With vig, a sportsbook or bookie is assured of making money on a bet. Some bettors mistakenly believe that they only pay Juice or “vig” is simply the percentage a sportsbook “charges” for offering odds on sports betting events. As we all know, there are no membership fees to join and bet at a sportsbook and contrary to the popular belief, the sportsbooks don't make money from the people that lost their bets. Removing the vig provides a behind the scenes viewpoint for sports bettors. If you don’t remove the vig or juice, you won’t know what the sportsbook actually thinks is going to happen in the game. Calculating the vig on a betting line also helps you identify those bets that are simply overpriced.

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How I got banned from sports betting... - Arbitrage Betting Explained

This page shows each team's projected runs scored according to vegas lines, with the -vig-, -juice-, or -Rake- taken out of the lines. It is the most accurate way to look at betting lines. Sports Betting 101: What Does -110 (Juice or Vig) Mean When Betting Sports? - Duration: 1:39. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 5,157 views Tensions mount when Tony goes around Vinnie's paternalistic ways, takes a bet from an unemployed alcoholic, and demands that the loser's wife pay the vig in trade. Is there any way out for Vinnie ... Sign in to like videos, comment, and subscribe. Sign in. Watch Queue Queue The Easiest Sports Betting Tips and Strategies in 2020 - Sports Betting 101 - Duration: 10:37. Action Backers Recommended for you. 10:37. Guaranteed Way To Win At Roulette?