3-betting and 4-betting - Poker Statistics

Hand Review. What did I do wrong.

Hero in C/Off Villian mid pos (both on around 1500 chips)
Villian Limps to 20
Hero has KK raises to 80
Villian calls
Flop comes 2, Q, J (rainbow).
Villian bets 20
Hero Raises to 100, Villian calls
Turn comes 6
Villian checks
Hero bets 200, Villian calls
River comes A
Villian bets 120
Hero calls for 120.
What hand do you put the opponent on here?
How can I play this hand better?
submitted by KEEPCARLM to poker [link] [comments]

More Tales From 2+2: A Very Controversial $70k prop bet

I enjoyed writing up and seeing positive feedback from this post so I decided to write up about an interesting prop bet that came from the 2+2 poker forums that I feel went under the radar. It's way longer than I thought it would be but this story has it all: large amounts of money being bet, furious grinding, 25 buy in swings, community outrage and Doug Polk.

The Site

The modern cash game grinder may be surprised to hear that there used to be a Sharkscope style tracking website for online cash games, it was called PokerTableRatings or PTR. It tracked hands fairly accurately. Today, it doesn’t exist and has been shut down for years but it was a valuable resource for grinders and having one browser open to check out opponents was useful. PTR showed your graph and win rates at different stakes, it also had an achievement system. Some achievements were serious like ‘1 Million Dollars In Profit’ and some were less serious like ‘Check Raise 3 Times In A Hand’. One coveted achievement given by PTR was the ‘Ultimate Grinder’. This was given to the most profitable player each month at each stake, this was all tracked on the Ultimate Grinder Leaderboard. So for example: if you are the top of the leaderboard for 50NL in December 2008, you will receive the ‘Ultimate Grinder December 50nl 2008’ badge on your PTR profile.

The Bets

The year is 2010. Johnathon Duhamel has won the WSOP Main Event. Poker, especially online poker is still booming. The grinders are plentiful. The fish are more plentiful. Posts flow on 2+2 like wine.
Enter Silent_0ne. He puts out a proposition bet on BBV (Beats, Brags and Variance: a subforum of 2+2 which is the precursor to Poker’s weekly BBV thread). Back in the golden days of online poker and 2+2 it was common for large prop bets to be made on BBV. Silent_0ne’s prop bet is he will be the ultimate grinder for December 2010 at 100nl. No easy feat, the previous months' ultimate grinders had won between $12k-18k and Silent_0ne claimed to have never played more than 10 tables or ever played on Pokerstars. The odds were set at 6:1 odds in Silent’s_0ne’s favour. Jalexand42 was selected to be the escrow and judge of this prop bet, so he will be the middleman for the money and he will arbitrate any disputes. The rules were set down covered many different situations. The judge was confident of this:
Jalexand42: Just a quick note about the judging... I'm optimistic there won't be any controversy in this bet the way the rules have been defined. (#83)
He would turn out to be so wrong.
Many 2+2 posters weighed their opinions in and started to place bets:
Chicago Joey (Joey Ingram): damn that is going to be interesting for a bunch of reasons(#46)
Canoodles: If I was OP, I wouldn't take this for less than 100-1. (#18)
Chinz: Settling for 6-1 and doing it on December when lots of SNE chasers are playing really high volume... You don't seem to like money. (#218)
Nearly all the posters doubted Silent_0ne but he seemed confident and Jalexand42 started collecting money.
By the 28th November, with 3 days to go until the challenge begins the bets were placed and finalized, 14 people put up between $600-$3k. Silent_0ne stood to gain $67,500 or lose $11,250 from the bet alone. In just a few days he would put himself at the mercy of variance and would dedicate himself to destroying 100nl. If he overcomes this challenging month, he stood to win a significant amount of money.

The Play

December the first rolled in and Silent_0ne starting playing. It was a rocky start for him, he finished day two down more than $2k and received comments from 2+2 posters like:
ChicagoJoey [Joey Ingram]: lol trainwreck (#392)
MinSixBet: are you still taking action? (#399)
But some posters really believed in him and were rooting hard:
Eaglesfan1: Forget about the leaderboard and focus on your game and playing ur best. (#406)
However things got worse and Silent_one seemed to be losing hope, on day 4 he posted this:
Silent_0ne: just got owned
bad rly bad "hero call" for big pot
set of 8s < set of As
KK < AK
bad river bluff shove
set of 6s < str
10s < Js
AK < AA
AK on AK6 board < 66
AA < 99 on 974 board
^ all greater than 200 big blind pots
could have prevented half of those if I didnt suck so much (#410)
Day 5 and Silent_0ne was doing better but was down a few buy ins, still far behind his target. Remember, he needs to be number one in profit in the massive 2010 pool of 100nl Pokerstars players. He posted this astonishing hand:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 9 players
Silent_0ne: $568.55 UTG+1: $444.30 UTG+2: $519.10 MP1: $226.75 Hero (MP2): $257.70 CO: $250.00 BTN: $100.00 SB: $257.70 BB: $120.90
Pre Flop: ($3.30) Silent_0ne is MP2 with 9h9c
Silent_0ne raises to $4.80, UTG+1 raises to $18.60, 1 fold, MP1 calls $18.60, 5 folds, Silent_0ne calls $13.80
Flop: ($59.10) 2h8s5s(3 players)
Silent_0ne checks, UTG+1 bets $32, MP1 folds, Silent_0ne raises to $92, UTG+1 calls $60
Turn: ($243.10) Kc (2 players)
Silent_0ne checks, UTG+1 checks
River: ($243.10) 4s (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $127, UTG+1 raises to $333.50 all in, Silent_0ne calls $206.50
Final Pot: $910.10
Silent_0ne shows 9h9c (a pair of Nines)
UTG+1 shows 9dJc (high card King)
Silent_0ne wins $907.10
As you can see, 2010 was truly an amazing place for online poker.
Silent_0ne was bringing out his inner grinder and was playing 16 hour sessions and seeing huge swings in the first week. Day 7 and he posted some hands that shocked the community and his growing fan base:
DPred123: wtf at those HHs. (#520)
Transa: LoLolLololooLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL (#521)
Here are two of the hands he posted:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 9 players
Pre Flop: ($3.30) MP1: $365.20 Hero (CO): $342.35 Silent_0ne is CO with 7s7d
3 folds, MP1 raises to $4, 1 fold, Silent_0ne raises to $15.50, 3 folds, MP1 raises to $41.90, Silent_0ne raises to $342.15 all in, MP1 calls $300.25
Flop: ($687.60) ThKc6s(2 players - 1 is all in)
Turn: ($687.60) Ts (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($687.60) 2h (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $687.60
MP1 shows AcAh (two pair, Aces and Tens)
and:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 3 players
BTN: $656.85 Silent_0ne(SB): $288.00 BB: $345.00
Pre Flop: ($2.10) Silent_0ne is SB with 4d4h
BTN raises to $3, Silent_0ne raises to $12, 1 fold, BTN calls $9
Flop: ($25.60) 3h6d5s(2 players)
Silent_0ne checks, BTN bets $18, Silent_0ne raises to $275.80 all in, BTN calls $257.80
Turn: ($577.20) Js (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($577.20) 9c (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $577.20
BTN shows 3d5d (two pair, Fives and Threes)
Hero Silent_0ne 4h4h (a pair of Fours)
BTN wins $576.20
Silent_0ne explained:
Silent_0ne: barely ate anything last few days. i just get up and play, dont prepare anything. im playing right now btw. down around 2700$ for the month. im really dumb for spewing off 3k+ just cause i was tilted/ran bad, and snapped. another problem that people overlook is the extra attention i get at the tables for doing this prop bet. lots of regs can exploit my plays and then all tend to focus on owning me. (#554)
Silent_0ne had started the month on a $3k downswing, then won $2.5k before going on another $3k downswing in just one week. He must have felt desperate as after an hour and a half Silent_0ne had an idea and events took a shocking turn:
Silent_0ne: any interested if i give up 100nl and start tomorrow on day 7 at 50nl to try and get the badge there for 6 to 1. i wanna gamble and break even on the month, so im willing to put up 5k on this if any1 is interested? (#570)
This new bet must have seemed too good to be true. At this point he had been relentlessly grinding 100nl for a week, was losing badly, he was tilting, was likely playing more tables than he can handle and he’s a week behind getting to the top of the 50nl leaderboard. The bets started to pour in and within an hour he had 7 people place action. The community commented:
Absurd: This is adsurd (#601)
jalexand42: Seriously, take a day to cool off. (#599)
King Fish: I'd be interested but highly advise you to reconsider this and maybe take an hour and step back. Edit: will take $1800 to your $300 assuming same judge and escrow. (#574)
loK2thabrain: I call dibs on first bet when he moves down to win the 25nl badge. (#700)
Everyone on the thread couldn’t believe what they reading, However, Silent_0ne seemed to accept that the 100nl bet was dead and he wasn’t getting the $67k prop bet win. He was willing to pay the $11k out and enter a new prop bet. Now, being the Ultimate Grinder at 50nl is his goal. Again, the bets were substantial and he had 8:1 odds in his favour for being the Ultimate Grinder for December at 50nl. The same day he made the new bet, he started at 50nl and was off.

The New Bet

Enter Fees. Fees is the 2+2 username of Ryan Fee (Currently on Team Upswing), at this point he was known for being a fearsome 2000nl grinder and writing Ryan Fee’s 6 max guide, which he distributed for free. In a world where succinct and good poker strategy was hard to come by, this was a valuable guide for many players. He takes interest in the thread on the 7th of December:
Fees i'll take all the action, PM me (#746)
Fees booked action late and the details of this booking were not listed in the thread. The next day, Fees acts a question about the rules:
Fees: what if kerpowski or jeffmet wins the ugl and he gets second? (#878)
Kerpowski and Jeffmet are players who took action against Silent_0ne. They are also 50/100nl grinders. The case of fellow grinders taking action was covered in the rules. A poster quotes the rules and informs Fees that they have to be existing 50nl/100nl grinders. Fees then asks the following question:
Fees: i think that implies at the same tables as him, but what if they just play completely different games and just win the ugl?
Remember these probing questions, they’ll become relevant later.
By the 10th of December things looked tough for Silent_0ne, the player of the top of the 50nl leaderboard was already at $2.5k profit (50 buy ins). Silent_0ne was up $1.1k and estimated he was only 2-3 days behind pace. By the 12th of December he was still playing brutally long sessions:
Silent_0ne: just finished 11 hour session, too tired to post anything, ill go to bed for a couple hours then post graphs/hands when i wake up. was tilted throughout entire session, played 12k hands...eyes burn...ran bad for once (6 buyins below ev)
He also posted eight hands that looked pretty spewy, here is one of them:
Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em $0.10 Ante - 5 players BB: $50.00 UTG: $103.40 CO: $137.65 BTN: $133.00 Silent_0ne (SB): $144.60
Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is SB with AdQh
1 fold, CO raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, Silent_0ne calls $1.25, BB calls $1
Flop: ($6.50) 6c6d6s(4 players)
Silent_0ne checks, BB checks, CO bets $4, BTN folds, Silent_0ne raises to $14.75, BB folds, CO calls $10.75
Turn: ($36.00) 8h (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $25.75, CO calls $25.75
River: ($87.50) 4d (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $102.50 all in, CO calls $95.55 all in
Final Pot: $278.60
CO shows JdJc (a full house, Sixes full of Jacks)
Silent_0ne shows AdQh (three of a kind, Sixes)
CO wins $276.60
Even people taking action against him gave him advice:
King Fish: I am speechless … It's NL50. Stop trying to get so fancy. (#1038)
But then, Silent_0ne has an explosive session and is up an incredible $2800 in one day, that’s 56 buy ins! The posters go wild as he moves into 3rd place on the 50nl Ultimate Grinder leaderboard:
  1. vaike $3,142, 19.38 Hands BB/100
  2. zzn1980 $2,833, 2.46 Hands BB/100
  3. Silent_0ne69 $2,634, 5.19 Hands B/100
For the first time people are starting to believe that he can do this.
Fast forward to the next day, December 13th and with another miraculous winning session he reaches number one on the leaderboard. He has $3.4k profit at 50nl and number two is close behind with $3.1k, if he can maintain his win rate of 6b/100 hands then he should have a very real chance of making an incredible comeback.
14th December. Fees posts:
Fees: still taking action, I want 2:1
Despite Silent_0ne being top of the leaderboard when he posted this and Fees already buying action Fees seemed willing to take 2:1 in Silent_0ne’s favour.
Soon after, a poster in the thread reveals that:
tightmaniac: fees is 4th
It is revealed that Fees who is normally a 2000nl player is playing 50nl HU and is 4th on the leaderboard. HU 50nl still counts towards the 50nl leaderboard. With the higher rate of hands of HU, bigger winrates of HU and Fees' skill, it could mean he would soon reach the top of the leaderboard. 10 minutes after TightManic’s post Fees lowers his odds:
Fees: Looking to take action on this at 1:1 (#1180)
The judge weighs in:
Jalexand42: If fees' didn't disclose this to whoever has his action, it's obviously pretty questionable, although that probably should have been asked. As far as the prop bet tho, I specifically asked Silent whether HU players should be included/excluded and he said included. The rules clearly don't exclude some random player from dropping down and playing $50nl (or $100nl for the original bet). They DO clearly state that people who bet against Silent one as part of the prop bet are NOT allowed to interfere with the bet, but I don't have anything to do with whatever side action fees may have on this. I told kerpowski last night that I didn't want him to play HU to try to win the badge, since I felt like it was a gray area in the intent of the rules (since he obviously doesn't normally play those stakes).
Kind of sucks for OP if this is going on, but I can't really change the rules after it's started since that would affect the people that bet against Silent. (#1196)
As of the 15 December Silent_0ne was still top of the board with $4.4k and most posters were expressing their displeasure if Fees were to continue playing 50nl. Silent_0ne drops this bombshell:
Silent_0ne: ‘2. Actions must be in accordance with the intent of having a fair prop bet. No actions (chip dumping, collusion, ghosting/coaching players on Silent_0ne's tables, etc) can be taken with the intent to affect the outcome of the prop bet. Violations will result in the violator's action being forfeited and may result in additional modification/extention to neutralize the interference.’ [Silent_0ne is quoting the rules here.] ‘The spirit of the bet is that OP is competing against players who 'really' play NL100, both ring and heads up.’
I know a friend of Fees and his friend said he was legit and everything. alittle after the bet started and action was full, fees approached me and my friend about taking additional action at 10 to 1. my friend and I took an additional 2.5k to his 25k and escrowed to wcgrider. the bet was under the assumption that the same rules as the 100nl bet were going to be used, and whatever the judge decides would be final.
so given the quotes above, it is against the rules that someone betting against me should also be able to compete against me given that he does not regularly play at 50nl (he plays 6max 2knl and WON the UGL badge last month at that stake) also, im not allowed to play 50nl HU which is really fishy and easy to win the UGL badge at if you put in enough volume.
regardless of if fees action is with Jalex or not, i think the same rules apply, because he is not a regular at the stakes and he accepted the same rules when making the bet with my friend and I going to eat something then start up a grind session, hopefully I continue to crush and run good, though my heart has sunk when I looked at fees in forth, and I feel ill and tilted (#1205)
Silent_0ne posted that he did a deal, off with main thread with 10 to 1 odds (Fees betting $25k to Silent_0ne’s $2.5k that Silent_0ne will win ultimate grinder 50nl) with Fees and that WCGRider (Doug Polk, currently of Upswing Poker and poker Youtube fame) is the escrow, not Jalexand42. Most posters now seem outraged:
King Fish: Wow what an angle shoot by Fees on this. This does help define the measure of what type of person he is that he is even attempting it. (#1207)
Tumaterminator: sickest hustle ever. (#1210)
kp1022: wait, doeboyfre$h is fees?
he sat me in 50nl HU a few days ago FWIW
after PTR'ing him , i asked why was he playing so low? he replied, "busto" (#1234)
Some of the posters were trying to play Fees at the 50nl in attempt to slow down his winning streak and tell Fees that he is breaking the rules. Silent_0ne expressed his displeasure and downed mental state:
Silent_0ne: this is horrible. im going to start my first grind right now. imo what fees is doing is against the rules and is unfair. i really hope i dont lose alot right now, but im in a pretty poor emotional state
please whoever is decent, sit it up with fees and discouarge him to continue what hes doing. 2knl player won badge last month, makes big bet against me and decides to compete for 50nl badge against me... (#1267)
For the first time in a few days Fees posts:
Fees: Hey,
Just to clear a few things up,
  1. I haven't broken any rules, there isn't a rule that explicitly states that I cannot win the UGL.
  2. I'm not trying to scam/do anything shady/etc, when I made the bet I posted in this thread asking if a bettor could win the UGL […] anyway I'm going to try and win the 50nl UGL this month... I haven't done anything wrong and there is nothing wrong with me going for it.
Then, an enflamed debate about the rules erupts, almost every poster is furious at Fees
Silent_0ne: had a conversation with WCGRider over the phone. the assumption was that jalex is the judge of this bet, and his word is final. WCGRider is simply just an escrow. fees and I agreed on the rules of the bet and having jalex of the judge. #1352
Then WCGRider (Doug Polk) posts for the first time:
WCGRider: Wanted to make a quick post here because i talked to colin earlier about this and i want to clear up a few things.
First off, I was never told i was going to be an escrow. I literally woke up with colins [Silent_0ne] money in my account. I was never asked anything, I was never told anything, I just was sent the money and thats it.
So now im being brought into this to make a decision, which i dont think really is fair. I haven't read any of this thread, I haven't read the rules. Also, fees has to be one of my best friends here in las vegas, and I want that to be clear before i give my opinion about this. I think its sort of unfair that i get put into this situation.
jalexand42 then posts his judgment in a lengthy post (#1526) but I believe this excerpt sums it up:
jalexand42: So, while it is not UNFAIR of fees to be playing $50nl, he has CLEARLY taken actions that will influence the outcome of the bet IF he wins the UGL for $50nl for December. Fees would clearly NOT be playing $50nl (and in fact is still playing his normal stakes) if he didn't have action on this bet. Fees also clearly understood this was a questionable area with regard to the rules based on his posts in this thread and he did not clarify it with the judge. He posts also indicate clearly that he felt he was subject to the rules. Therefore, I rule that Fees' standing on the UGL for December WILL BE IGNORED for purposes of determining this bet if he wins.
Many posters praise Jalexand42. But Jalexand42 does not have the money from the sidebet between Silent_0ne and Fees. WCGrider does. Silent_0ne gives his piece of mind and a quick poker update:
Silent_0ne: yes, i agree with this [Jalexand42's judgment].
also, fees can keep the 25k in the bet without any forfiet. im just really happy things worked out okay.
however i probably should have read this before my session I just played. probably wouldnt have spewed as much at the endodays been my worst day since the start of the 50nl bet so far. gonna play 1 more session later tonight and going to be in alot better and focused mood (#1561)
Then, another bombshell drops, a friend of WCRrider’s reveals that Fees didn’t even escrow his money to Doug:
theskillzdatklls: Afaik, Fees did not ship his $25k share to Doug, only Colin [Silent_0ne] sent his part. (#1669)
2+2 reacts:
Handbaggio: LOL wtf, fees hasn't escrowed his bet??? (#1676)
rnb0sprnkles: LOL and when I thought the drama was starting to die down, the thread gets even crazier (#1698)
Jalexand42 has a conversation with WCGRider to reach an agreement and reports:
Jalexand42: Okay, so here's the summary of my conversation with WCGRider:
  1. He is only holding Silent & the_most's action, $2,500.
  2. He did talk to Fees. Fees told him he was going to talk to Colin [Silent_0ne] today and 'hopes to work out something reasonable'.
  3. I asked what that means, he said he didn't feel like he could tell me, because he felt like what Fees told him was as a friend, but that it sounded fair in WCGRider's opinion.
  4. WCGRider said he thought my decision making sounded reasonable.
  5. WCGrider said that noone told him what to do, so he figured he was just holding on to Silent's money.
  6. I told WCGrider I was willing for him to ship me the $2.5k now if he was feeling uncomfortable, he said he'd wait to see what Silent & Fees work out. ( #1703)
Back to actual poker and Silent_0ne reports a bad losing session on the 16th December citing all the ongoing drama:
Silent_0ne: 22 buyin downswing im playing really bad right now, and I really wish I didn't have to think about and deal with all these other problems.
The community are rooting really hard to him at this point and are all telling him to stay strong. Things start to get messy when Jalexand42 speaks with WCGRider and Fees and in a long post ( #1957) said that WCGRider protested his participation was unfair and Jalexand42 accused him of not of not already sending the $25k to Jalexand42. Fees also tried to offer Silent_0ne a $1k buy out saying it was ‘super generous’, it was refused. Silent_0ne states that the reason fees doesn't want his money escrowed by Jalexand42 is that he is afraid that his bet will be forfeited due to breaking the rules. WCGRider chimed in to defend himself (he also spoke about playing 50nl-100nl and having a rough year, which is interesting as he developed into the top HU player for a time and couldn’t get action, even at the highest stakes.) The 2+2 community then debate and lightly harass WCGRider and Fees to concede and send the money to Jalexand42. Fees finally agrees to a 50% buyout.

The Outcome

On the 17th of December and Silent_0ne slips to number 2 on the leaderboards.
  1. vaike $3,835 ,17.44BB/100
  2. Silent_0ne69 $3,523, 4.25BB/100
Silent_0ne then makes a post that changes everything:
Silent_0ne : Hello everyone
firstly, I would like to say thank you so much to everyone who supported me throughout this bet. i cant stress how much it meant to me to see any post wishing me goodluck, or someone pming me given me some life lessons and more encouragement.
ive been approached by the bettors on numerous occasions regarding a buyout. the original buyout deal offered was 33%. eventually 37% was offered, and then 44%, and finally I agreed on 50% of total wagers from all 6 bettors as their buyout.
I am not really satisfied with a buyout, and I was not the one originally looking for the buyout. the bettors wanted it and I decided to see what they had to offer. what I wanted was time to spend with friends and family throughout the christmas break. With continuing this bet, I do have alot of confidence of accomplishing it, but at the expense of isolation through one of the most special times of each year. My family was mad at me when I tried explaining to them I probably wouldn't be able to particpate in any family events and have much if any celebration of christmas.
my goal the next 14 days was to just grind it out 10 hours each day with breaks inbetween, and sleep. Instead I will be able to go back to my regular, stress free grinding, and shipping 50% of the total wagers after half the month as gone by. In the end, including both the 100nl and 50nl prop bets, I made a net of roughly +20k. The other two options would be risking a net of -20k or a net of +60k. I took the variance free route, and all the bettors did the same thing. None of us wanted to lose the bet obviously, so I think we worked out a fair resolution with this buyout.
I have no hard feelings against fees or wcg rider. Perhaps a different scenerio would have occured if the recent issues did not occur, but thats in the past now and i'm looking forwards to a postive future. (#2511)
So, in the end all the parties involved reached a buyout agreement on the 50nl prop bet. Silent_0ne would stop playing the 50nl prop bet and would be up $20k. The community replies:
Ditch Digger: Silent, nice job. 50% is more than reasonable. (#2516)
kelnel: gg on +20k, u rocked!! (#2520)
shhhnake_eyes: I call this the most anticlimactic finish ever. (#2522)
Link to original thread.
Note: Please note I’ve tried to be impartial in writing this. Please let me know publicly or privately if there are any errors or you feel I misrepresented something or someone. The quotes I’ve included don’t always show the full post made but I’ve included the post number in each quote so you can read it on 2+2 in full context. If you want to be fully informed you should read the whole 2+2 thread.
submitted by GiantHorse to poker [link] [comments]

Top two facing river Jam - .25/.50 Blitz

Played a hand earlier facing a jam on the river that I thought was a close decision and wanted to get others thoughts on it.
Hand #390284073 - Holdem(No Limit) - $0.25/$0.50 -
Seat 5: Hero($67.92) Seat 6: Villain ($60.00)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero[Ah Td]
Seat 4 folds Hero raises $1.25 to $1.25 Villain raises $3.68 to $3.68
Seat 1 folds Seat 2 folds Seat 3 folds Hero calls $2.43
*** FLOP *** [Th 3h Ac] Main pot $7.71 | Rake $0.40
Hero checks Villain bets $3.80 Hero calls $3.80
*** TURN *** [Th 3h Ac] [6d] Main pot $14.93 | Rake $0.78
Hero checks Villain bets $11.78 Hero calls $11.78
*** RIVER *** [Th 3h Ac 6d] [9s] Main pot $37.31 | Rake $1.96
Hero checks Villain bets $40.74 and is all-in
Pre I'm usually folding this without a second thought but with v's small 3! sizing I decided to see a flop. This particular sizing I've found to be strongly weighted to be hands such as AJs, AQo, AQs,AKo,88-JJ at this particular game .25/.50 blitz on ACR.
On the flop I flat, planning to evaluate and possible C/R turn. With the 2/3 pot bet on the turn I felt that V was betting for protection with AQ, AK. I decided to just flat to set up a C/R on the river on any blank. Thoughts on whether I should be C/R flop/turn?
On the river, Villain's all-in surprised me. Ak or 99 make the most sense to me here, 99 seems odd to have continued on the turn, we also lose to TT which we block. He could have Ax of hearts, KhQh, and some other random heart draws.
This being said, I've found river jams to almost always be sets+ in this game/player pool. This one felt really close. Do you find a fold here or are you just calling here and if V has it so be it?
submitted by bestcreature to poker [link] [comments]

Tight passive villain finally shows aggression, but their shove on the river has me second-guessing myself. Thoughts?

Hey all, just wanted some thoughts about how I played this hand.
Here's the hand converted with PokerTracker and I've got key stats for villain as well.
BlackChip Poker - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com Key Villain (BTN): 100 BB (VPIP 12 / PR 9 / 3B 3 / FCB 0 / 75 Hands) SB: 230.4 BB BB: 102.8 BB Hero (UTG): 162.76 BB CO: 142.68 BB SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Kd Qh Hero raises to 2.4 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.4 BB, SB calls 2 BB, fold Flop : (8.2 BB, 3 players) 3s 9c 2c SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks Turn : (8.2 BB, 3 players) Ks SB checks, Hero bets 4.88 BB, BTN raises to 18.32 BB, fold, Hero calls 13.44 BB River : (44.84 BB, 2 players) 7d Hero checks, BTN bets 79.28 BB and is all-in, Hero folds. 
I decided not to c-bet OTF because Villain (especially the one on the BTN) hadn't been folding to c-bets. Also I don't feel like that board would hit my range, and I have very low equity OTF with just overs and an optimistic backdoor to the second nut-straight. I wanted to be more conservative in a multiway pot with station-y players.
In hindsight, I think the delayed cbet on the turn hurt me as it made my hand pretty face-up. At the time I thought that now that my hand has some equity, I need to protect from the spade and the club flush draws. When villain re-raises me here I thought that I should continue and re-evaluate on the river. I found the re-raise strange because if they were reraising me for value, why wouldn't they take over the betting lead on the flop after I checked? Would it make sense for villain to slowplay a set in a multiway pot since there's the risk of giving the club draw a free card? Villain's also been playing pretty rocky all session, but at the same time the reraise made more sense as a semibluff for a flush draw since they didn't bet the flop. I'm also getting a decent price to continue (almost 2.5:1).
My plan was to call a reasonable bet on the river if neither flush draws completed, assuming the bet from villain was sensibly sized. Well sadly for me villain overbets to almost double the pot. I decide to fold because I'm getting a bad price, and the fact that villain's been playing really tight, so I felt he wouldn't be bluff-shoving in this spot. Villain was also playing pretty passively as well (AF of 1.2) for the entirety of the session so I figured that when a passive player like that shows strength I should just let it go, even if nothing changed on the river. I felt calling an overbet with just a King is too light against this villain, despite me getting decent odds to bluff-catch. The bet smelled like either a missed flush-draw or a set, and a missed flush-draw made a bit more sense since they didn't bet the flop. I think I ended up just folding due to pressuring myself to maintain my solid profit for the night (poor mentality I know, but was a little annoyed at my losses in 10NL Blitz).
Few questions for those that read this:
submitted by anchor72 to poker [link] [comments]

Newbie Question - Playing Too Tight?

TLDR - Older guy in Vegas told me that my ranges are way too tight and I need to be more of a "LAG". Not sure if he was bluffing me even outside the tables.
I've only been playing a little over a year, Every Friday with buddies and twice I have braved the Poker Room in Vegas only to have my ass handed to me (which was expected). I was mostly paying for the experience of being in there and getting a feel for what it was like to be at a real table to be honest.
Anyway, after losing my $200 (2/4 NL game) one gentleman was kind enough to talk to me and after listening to my "strategy" he offered some advice. He mentioned that I was way too tight with my ranges. I thought that as a newbie I should play in a relatively tight range since I was just learning the ropes.
I haven't been able to grasp the the details of playing each individual position so I try and play in ranges based off early, mid, or late.
Here is what my general idea is for PreFlop:
Early - 8+ pairs, AKs, AQs, AJs, KQs, KJs, A10s-A8s
Mid- Add in 7+ pairs, any Broadway, A+anything suited
Late - add in 7+ suited connectors, any K, any A.
Post Flop is a whole other story because unless I hit something I will be willing to bet on like trips, flush/straight draw, 2 top pair, I usually let the more experienced players battle it out since I'm not skilled enough to bluff and I'm still learning to count my outs/pot odds so if I'm not confident in the math I just sit back and learn from my mistakes.
I know it a long post so thanks for your time and I appreciate your input.
submitted by FakeAcctSnoo to poker [link] [comments]

Blessed be Jacks

Setting: 5NL Zone poker on Ignition.
I'm dealt JhJd UTG. I open 3BB, villain in the SB raises to 6BB, I call (others fold). Pot up to 12BB ($0.60).
Flop: AT7 hearts.
I'm not enthusiastic about the ace, but I've got a flush draw and even without that a decent-enough hand. Villain checks. Given his pre-flop raise I'm thinking he missed the board. I bet pot as a semi-bluff. Villain raises to double the pot. F$&k. Maybe he's the one who's bluffing? I call. Pot up to 60 BB ($3.00).
Turn: Qd
Villain bets 20 BB ($1). He's playing really aggressively on a wet board, I think somethings up.
Where I'm at: still no flush but now I'm also drawing to an inside straight. So my outs are: 2 Jacks + 4 kings + 8 hearts (9 minus the Kh) = 14. Which implies a ~30% chance to improve, and the pot odds on this bet are 20%. I call.
River: Jc
I hit my weakest out. So I'm beating a pair or two, but not a flush or a straight. Villain goes all in (35BB, $1.75). This bet smells of desperation to me, and villain has been incredibly aggressive. I call.
Villain has Ad2c, so ultimately his crazy betting on this super-wet board was with a pair of aces. I take the pot and nearly double my stack.
In retrospect I'm thinking I should've checked the flop, or folded to the check raise. Even if I had hit my flush it would be with a Jh, easy to get beaten by a better flush. On the turn the texture shifted in my favor, which is how I justified staying in the hand, but even most of those hands still lose to a flush. Three jacks is a pretty decent hand in a vacuum, but on this board it seems weak.
I'm having trouble deciding if I was smart or just up against an absolute maniac of a villain. Who 3bets pre-flop with A2 from the small blind? Now that I know villains hand I know that all my outs were good, so maybe the turn bet makes sense, although it also means I was behind up until the river.
submitted by DonnysDiscountGas to poker [link] [comments]

[Online Poker/Proposition Bets] A Very Controversial $70k Proposition Bet

I wrote this article on poker and I thought it would go down well here, it has some online poker hand histories and some poker lingo but it’s not vital to the story. The post is pretty long but it’s got it all: large amounts of money being bet, degenerate behavior and community outrage in the world of online poker. To give some context, poker was and still is taken very seriously by many people. Some of these poker players are professional players and some are professional players online. Online poker was very popular between ‘The Poker Boom’ of 2003 and ‘Black Friday’ of 2011 and serious money could be made with hard work, careful money management and discipline. It was (and still could be) possible to achieve winrates of $20-300+ an hour. The 2+2 Poker forums were incredibly popular during these times; the following post chronicles a proposition bet on the 2+2 forums. A proposition bet is where someone takes bets on the likelihood of them completing a task.
Here’s a quick glossary:
Buy in: The normal amount of money that you buy in for in a poker cash game
50nl/100nl: The way to describe online stakes. 50nl means the big blind is 50 cents and that the normal buy in is for $50, $100nl means the big blind is $1 and the normal buy in is $100.
HU: Heads up, this means just two players in a hand. It’s considered to be a skillful and difficult form of poker
Escrow: A third party who takes care of cash in a bet or trade. They should only move cash as agreed by both sides or the rules set.
Grinder: Some who plays a large volume of hands. Usually a serious player. If they play online, they may play 4-12 tables of poker at once.
Fish: A weaker poker player

The Site

The modern cash game grinder may be surprised to hear that there used to be a Sharkscope style tracking website for online cash games, it was called PokerTableRatings or PTR. It tracked hands fairly accurately. Today, it doesn’t exist and has been shut down for years but it was a valuable resource for grinders and having one browser open to check out opponents was useful. PTR showed your graph and win rates at different stakes, it also had an achievement system. Some achievements were serious like ‘1 Million Dollars In Profit’ and some were less serious like ‘Check Raise 3 Times In A Hand’. One coveted achievement given by PTR was the ‘Ultimate Grinder’. This was given to the most profitable player each month at each stake, this was all tracked on the Ultimate Grinder Leaderboard. So for example: if you are the top of the leaderboard for 50NL in December 2008, you will receive the ‘Ultimate Grinder December 50nl 2008’ badge on your PTR profile.

The Bets

The year is 2010. Johnathon Duhamel has won the WSOP Main Event. Poker, especially online poker is still booming. The grinders are plentiful. The fish are more plentiful. Posts flow on 2+2 like wine.
Enter Silent_0ne. He puts out a proposition bet on BBV (Beats, Brags and Variance: a subforum of 2+2 which is the precursor to Poker’s weekly BBV thread). Back in the golden days of online poker and 2+2 it was common for large prop bets to be made on BBV. Silent_0ne’s prop bet is he will be the ultimate grinder for December 2010 at 100nl. No easy feat, the previous months' ultimate grinders had won between $12k-18k and Silent_0ne claimed to have never played more than 10 tables or ever played on Pokerstars. The odds were set at 6:1 odds in Silent’s_0ne’s favour. Jalexand42 was selected to be the escrow and judge of this prop bet, so he will be the middleman for the money and he will arbitrate any disputes. The rules were set down covered many different situations. The judge was confident of this:
Jalexand42: Just a quick note about the judging... I'm optimistic there won't be any controversy in this bet the way the rules have been defined. (#83)
He would turn out to be so wrong.
Many 2+2 posters weighed their opinions in and started to place bets:
Chicago Joey (Joey Ingram): damn that is going to be interesting for a bunch of reasons(#46)
Canoodles: If I was OP, I wouldn't take this for less than 100-1. (#18)
Chinz: Settling for 6-1 and doing it on December when lots of SNE chasers are playing really high volume... You don't seem to like money. (#218)
Nearly all the posters doubted Silent_0ne but he seemed confident and Jalexand42 started collecting money.
By the 28th November, with 3 days to go until the challenge begins the bets were placed and finalized, 14 people put up between $600-$3k. Silent_0ne stood to gain $67,500 or lose $11,250 from the bet alone. In just a few days he would put himself at the mercy of variance and would dedicate himself to destroying 100nl. If he overcomes this challenging month, he stood to win a significant amount of money.

The Play

December the first rolled in and Silent_0ne starting playing. It was a rocky start for him, he finished day two down more than $2k and received comments from 2+2 posters like:
ChicagoJoey [Joey Ingram]: lol trainwreck (#392)
MinSixBet: are you still taking action? (#399)
But some posters really believed in him and were rooting hard:
Eaglesfan1: Forget about the leaderboard and focus on your game and playing ur best. (#406)
However things got worse and Silent_one seemed to be losing hope, on day 4 he posted this:
Silent_0ne: just got owned
bad rly bad "hero call" for big pot
set of 8s < set of As
KK < AK
bad river bluff shove
set of 6s < str
10s < Js
AK < AA
AK on AK6 board < 66
AA < 99 on 974 board
^ all greater than 200 big blind pots
could have prevented half of those if I didnt suck so much (#410)
Day 5 and Silent_0ne was doing better but was down a few buy ins, still far behind his target. Remember, he needs to be number one in profit in the massive 2010 pool of 100nl Pokerstars players. He posted this astonishing hand:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 9 players
Silent_0ne: $568.55 UTG+1: $444.30 UTG+2: $519.10 MP1: $226.75 Hero (MP2): $257.70 CO: $250.00 BTN: $100.00 SB: $257.70 BB: $120.90
Pre Flop: ($3.30) Silent_0ne is MP2 with 9h9c
Silent_0ne raises to $4.80, UTG+1 raises to $18.60, 1 fold, MP1 calls $18.60, 5 folds, Silent_0ne calls $13.80
Flop: ($59.10) 2h8s5s(3 players)
Silent_0ne checks, UTG+1 bets $32, MP1 folds, Silent_0ne raises to $92, UTG+1 calls $60
Turn: ($243.10) Kc (2 players)
Silent_0ne checks, UTG+1 checks
River: ($243.10) 4s (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $127, UTG+1 raises to $333.50 all in, Silent_0ne calls $206.50
Final Pot: $910.10
Silent_0ne shows 9h9c (a pair of Nines)
UTG+1 shows 9dJc (high card King)
Silent_0ne wins $907.10
As you can see, 2010 was truly an amazing place for online poker.
Silent_0ne was bringing out his inner grinder and was playing 16 hour sessions and seeing huge swings in the first week. Day 7 and he posted some hands that shocked the community and his growing fan base:
DPred123: wtf at those HHs. (#520)
Transa: LoLolLololooLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL (#521)
Here are two of the hands he posted:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 9 players
Pre Flop: ($3.30) MP1: $365.20 Hero (CO): $342.35 Silent_0ne is CO with 7s7d
3 folds, MP1 raises to $4, 1 fold, Silent_0ne raises to $15.50, 3 folds, MP1 raises to $41.90, Silent_0ne raises to $342.15 all in, MP1 calls $300.25
Flop: ($687.60) ThKc6s(2 players - 1 is all in)
Turn: ($687.60) Ts
River: ($687.60) 2h (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $687.60
MP1 shows AcAh (two pair, Aces and Tens)
and:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 3 players
BTN: $656.85 Silent_0ne(SB): $288.00 BB: $345.00
Pre Flop: ($2.10) Silent_0ne is SB with 4d4h
BTN raises to $3, Silent_0ne raises to $12, 1 fold, BTN calls $9
Flop: ($25.60) 3h6d5s(2 players)
Silent_0ne checks, BTN bets $18, Silent_0ne raises to $275.80 all in, BTN calls $257.80
Turn: ($577.20) Js (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($577.20) 9c (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $577.20
BTN shows 3d5d (two pair, Fives and Threes)
Hero Silent_0ne 4h4h (a pair of Fours)
BTN wins $576.20
Silent_0ne explained:
Silent_0ne: barely ate anything last few days. i just get up and play, dont prepare anything. im playing right now btw. down around 2700$ for the month. im really dumb for spewing off 3k+ just cause i was tilted/ran bad, and snapped. another problem that people overlook is the extra attention i get at the tables for doing this prop bet. lots of regs can exploit my plays and then all tend to focus on owning me. (#554)
Silent_0ne had started the month on a $3k downswing, then won $2.5k before going on another $3k downswing in just one week. He must have felt desperate as after an hour and a half Silent_0ne had an idea and events took a shocking turn:
Silent_0ne: any interested if i give up 100nl and start tomorrow on day 7 at 50nl to try and get the badge there for 6 to 1. i wanna gamble and break even on the month, so im willing to put up 5k on this if any1 is interested? (#570)
This new bet must have seemed too good to be true. At this point he had been relentlessly grinding 100nl for a week, was losing badly, he was tilting, was likely playing more tables than he can handle and he’s a week behind getting to the top of the 50nl leaderboard. The bets started to pour in and within an hour he had 7 people place action. The community commented:
Absurd: This is adsurd (#601)
jalexand42: Seriously, take a day to cool off. (#599)
King Fish: I'd be interested but highly advise you to reconsider this and maybe take an hour and step back. Edit: will take $1800 to your $300 assuming same judge and escrow. (#574)
loK2thabrain: I call dibs on first bet when he moves down to win the 25nl badge. (#700)
Everyone on the thread couldn’t believe what they reading, However, Silent_0ne seemed to accept that the 100nl bet was dead and he wasn’t getting the $67k prop bet win. He was willing to pay the $11k out and enter a new prop bet. Now, being the Ultimate Grinder at 50nl is his goal. Again, the bets were substantial and he had 8:1 odds in his favour for being the Ultimate Grinder for December at 50nl. The same day he made the new bet, he started at 50nl and was off.

The New Bet

Enter Fees. Fees is the 2+2 username of Ryan Fee (Currently on Team Upswing), at this point he was known for being a fearsome 2000nl grinder and writing Ryan Fee’s 6 max guide, which he distributed for free. In a world where succinct and good poker strategy was hard to come by, this was a valuable guide for many players. He takes interest in the thread on the 7th of December:
Fees i'll take all the action, PM me (#746)
Fees booked action late and the details of this booking were not listed in the thread. The next day, Fees acts a question about the rules:
Fees: what if kerpowski or jeffmet wins the ugl and he gets second? (#878)
Kerpowski and Jeffmet are players who took action against Silent_0ne. They are also 50/100nl grinders. The case of fellow grinders taking action was covered in the rules. A poster quotes the rules and informs Fees that they have to be existing 50nl/100nl grinders. Fees then asks the following question:
Fees: i think that implies at the same tables as him, but what if they just play completely different games and just win the ugl?
Remember these probing questions, they’ll become relevant later.
By the 10th of December things looked tough for Silent_0ne, the player of the top of the 50nl leaderboard was already at $2.5k profit (50 buy ins). Silent_0ne was up $1.1k and estimated he was only 2-3 days behind pace. By the 12th of December he was still playing brutally long sessions:
Silent_0ne: just finished 11 hour session, too tired to post anything, ill go to bed for a couple hours then post graphs/hands when i wake up. was tilted throughout entire session, played 12k hands...eyes burn...ran bad for once (6 buyins below ev)
He also posted eight hands that looked pretty spewy, here is one of them:
Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em $0.10 Ante - 5 players BB: $50.00 UTG: $103.40 CO: $137.65 BTN: $133.00 Silent_0ne (SB): $144.60
Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is SB with AdQh
1 fold, CO raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, Silent_0ne calls $1.25, BB calls $1
Flop: ($6.50) 6c6d6s(4 players)
Silent_0ne checks, BB checks, CO bets $4, BTN folds, Silent_0ne raises to $14.75, BB folds, CO calls $10.75
Turn: ($36.00) 8h (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $25.75, CO calls $25.75
River: ($87.50) 4d (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $102.50 all in, CO calls $95.55 all in
Final Pot: $278.60
CO shows JdJc (a full house, Sixes full of Jacks)
Silent_0ne shows AdQh (three of a kind, Sixes)
CO wins $276.60
Even people taking action against him gave him advice:
King Fish: I am speechless … It's NL50. Stop trying to get so fancy. (#1038)
But then, Silent_0ne has an explosive session and is up an incredible $2800 in one day, that’s 56 buy ins! The posters go wild as he moves into 3rd place on the 50nl Ultimate Grinder leaderboard:
  1. vaike $3,142, 19.38 Hands BB/100
  2. zzn1980 $2,833, 2.46 Hands BB/100
  3. Silent_0ne69 $2,634, 5.19 Hands B/100
For the first time people are starting to believe that he can do this.
Fast forward to the next day, December 13th and with another miraculous winning session he reaches number one on the leaderboard. He has $3.4k profit at 50nl and number two is close behind with $3.1k, if he can maintain his win rate of 6b/100 hands then he should have a very real chance of making incredible comeback.
14th December. Fees posts:
Fees: still taking action, I want 2:1
Despite Silent_0ne being top of the leaderboard when he posted this and Fees already buying action Fees seemed willing to take 2:1 in Silent_0ne’s favour.
Soon after, a poster in the thread reveals that:
tightmaniac: fees is 4th
It is revealed that Fees who is normally a 2000nl player is playing 50nl HU and is 4th on the leaderboard. HU 50nl still counts towards the 50nl leaderboard. With the higher rate of hands of HU, bigger winrates of HU and Fees' skill, it could mean he would soon reach the top of the leaderboard. 10 minutes after TightManic’s post Fees lowers his odds:
Fees: Looking to take action on this at 1:1 (#1180)
The judge weighs in:
Jalexand42: If fees' didn't disclose this to whoever has his action, it's obviously pretty questionable, although that probably should have been asked. As far as the prop bet tho, I specifically asked Silent whether HU players should be included/excluded and he said included. The rules clearly don't exclude some random player from dropping down and playing $50nl (or $100nl for the original bet). They DO clearly state that people who bet against Silent one as part of the prop bet are NOT allowed to interfere with the bet, but I don't have anything to do with whatever side action fees may have on this. I told kerpowski last night that I didn't want him to play HU to try to win the badge, since I felt like it was a gray area in the intent of the rules (since he obviously doesn't normally play those stakes).
Kind of sucks for OP if this is going on, but I can't really change the rules after it's started since that would affect the people that bet against Silent. (#1196)
As of the 15 December Silent_0ne was still top of the board with $4.4k and most posters were expressing their displeasure if Fees were to continue playing 50nl. Silent_0ne drops this bombshell:
Silent_0ne: ‘2. Actions must be in accordance with the intent of having a fair prop bet. No actions (chip dumping, collusion, ghosting/coaching players on Silent_0ne's tables, etc) can be taken with the intent to affect the outcome of the prop bet. Violations will result in the violator's action being forfeited and may result in additional modification/extention to neutralize the interference.’ [Silent_0ne is quoting the rules here.] ‘The spirit of the bet is that OP is competing against players who 'really' play NL100, both ring and heads up.’
I know a friend of Fees and his friend said he was legit and everything. alittle after the bet started and action was full, fees approached me and my friend about taking additional action at 10 to 1. my friend and I took an additional 2.5k to his 25k and escrowed to wcgrider. the bet was under the assumption that the same rules as the 100nl bet were going to be used, and whatever the judge decides would be final.
so given the quotes above, it is against the rules that someone betting against me should also be able to compete against me given that he does not regularly play at 50nl (he plays 6max 2knl and WON the UGL badge last month at that stake) also, im not allowed to play 50nl HU which is really fishy and easy to win the UGL badge at if you put in enough volume.
regardless of if fees action is with Jalex or not, i think the same rules apply, because he is not a regular at the stakes and he accepted the same rules when making the bet with my friend and I going to eat something then start up a grind session, hopefully I continue to crush and run good, though my heart has sunk when I looked at fees in forth, and I feel ill and tilted (#1205)
Silent_0ne posted that he did a deal, off with main thread with 10 to 1 odds (Fees betting $25k to Silent_0ne’s $2.5k that Silent_0ne will win ultimate grinder 50nl) with Fees and that WCGRider (Doug Polk, currently of Upswing Poker and poker Youtube fame) is the escrow, not Jalexand42. Most posters now seem outraged:
King Fish: Wow what an angle shoot by Fees on this. This does help define the measure of what type of person he is that he is even attempting it. (#1207)
Tumaterminator: sickest hustle ever. (#1210)
kp1022: wait, doeboyfre$h is fees?
he sat me in 50nl HU a few days ago FWIW
after PTR'ing him , i asked why was he playing so low? he replied, "busto" (#1234)
Some of the posters were trying to play Fees at the 50nl in attempt to slow down his winning streak and tell Fees that he is breaking the rules. Silent_0ne expressed his displeasure and downed mental state:
Silent_0ne: this is horrible. im going to start my first grind right now. imo what fees is doing is against the rules and is unfair. i really hope i dont lose alot right now, but im in a pretty poor emotional state
please whoever is decent, sit it up with fees and discouarge him to continue what hes doing. 2knl player won badge last month, makes big bet against me and decides to compete for 50nl badge against me... (#1267)
For the first time in a few days Fees posts:
Fees: Hey,
Just to clear a few things up,
  1. I haven't broken any rules, there isn't a rule that explicitly states that I cannot win the UGL.
  2. I'm not trying to scam/do anything shady/etc, when I made the bet I posted in this thread asking if a bettor could win the UGL […] anyway I'm going to try and win the 50nl UGL this month... I haven't done anything wrong and there is nothing wrong with me going for it.
Then, an enflamed debate about the rules erupts, almost every poster is furious at Fees
Silent_0ne: had a conversation with WCGRider over the phone. the assumption was that jalex is the judge of this bet, and his word is final. WCGRider is simply just an escrow. fees and I agreed on the rules of the bet and having jalex of the judge. #1352
Then WCGRider (Doug Polk) posts for the first time:
WCGRider: Wanted to make a quick post here because i talked to colin earlier about this and i want to clear up a few things.
First off, I was never told i was going to be an escrow. I literally woke up with colins [Silent_0ne] money in my account. I was never asked anything, I was never told anything, I just was sent the money and thats it.
So now im being brought into this to make a decision, which i dont think really is fair. I haven't read any of this thread, I haven't read the rules. Also, fees has to be one of my best friends here in las vegas, and I want that to be clear before i give my opinion about this. I think its sort of unfair that i get put into this situation.
jalexand42 then posts his judgment in a lengthy post (#1526) but I believe this excerpt sums it up:
jalexand42: So, while it is not UNFAIR of fees to be playing $50nl, he has CLEARLY taken actions that will influence the outcome of the bet IF he wins the UGL for $50nl for December. Fees would clearly NOT be playing $50nl (and in fact is still playing his normal stakes) if he didn't have action on this bet. Fees also clearly understood this was a questionable area with regard to the rules based on his posts in this thread and he did not clarify it with the judge. He posts also indicate clearly that he felt he was subject to the rules. Therefore, I rule that Fees' standing on the UGL for December WILL BE IGNORED for purposes of determining this bet if he wins.
Many posters praise Jalexand42. But Jalexand42 does not have the money from the sidebet between Silent_0ne and Fees. WCGrider does. Silent_0ne gives his piece of mind and a quick poker update:
Silent_0ne: yes, i agree with this [Jalexand42's judgment].
also, fees can keep the 25k in the bet without any forfiet. im just really happy things worked out okay.
however i probably should have read this before my session I just played. probably wouldnt have spewed as much at the endodays been my worst day since the start of the 50nl bet so far. gonna play 1 more session later tonight and going to be in alot better and focused mood (#1561)
Then, another bombshell drops, a friend of WCRrider’s reveals that Fees didn’t even escrow his money to Doug:
theskillzdatklls: Afaik, Fees did not ship his $25k share to Doug, only Colin [Silent_0ne] sent his part. (#1669)
2+2 reacts:
Handbaggio: LOL wtf, fees hasn't escrowed his bet??? (#1676)
rnb0sprnkles: LOL and when I thought the drama was starting to die down, the thread gets even crazier (#1698)
Jalexand42 has a conversation with WCGRider to reach an agreement and reports:
Jalexand42: Okay, so here's the summary of my conversation with WCGRider:
  1. He is only holding Silent & the_most's action, $2,500.
  2. He did talk to Fees. Fees told him he was going to talk to Colin [Silent_0ne] today and 'hopes to work out something reasonable'.
  3. I asked what that means, he said he didn't feel like he could tell me, because he felt like what Fees told him was as a friend, but that it sounded fair in WCGRider's opinion.
  4. WCGRider said he thought my decision making sounded reasonable.
  5. WCGrider said that noone told him what to do, so he figured he was just holding on to Silent's money.
  6. I told WCGrider I was willing for him to ship me the $2.5k now if he was feeling uncomfortable, he said he'd wait to see what Silent & Fees work out. ( #1703)
Back to actual poker and Silent_0ne reports a bad losing session on the 16th December citing all the ongoing drama:
Silent_0ne: 22 buyin downswing im playing really bad right now, and I really wish I didn't have to think about and deal with all these other problems.
The community are rooting really hard to him at this point and are all telling him to stay strong. Things start to get messy when Jalexand42 speaks with WCGRider and Fees and in a long post ( #1957) said that WCGRider protested his participation was unfair and Jalexand42 accused him of not of not already sending the $25k to Jalexand42. Fees also tried to offer Silent_0ne a $1k buy out saying it was ‘super generous’, it was refused. Silent_0ne states that the reason fees doesn't want his money escrowed by Jalexand42 is that he is afraid that his bet will be forfeited due to breaking the rules. WCGRider chimed in to defend himself (he also spoke about playing 50nl-100nl and having a rough year, which is interesting as he developed into the top HU player for a time and couldn’t get action, even at the highest stakes.) The 2+2 community then debate and lightly harass WCGRider and Fees to concede and send the money to Jalexand42. Fees finally agrees to a 50% buyout.

The Outcome

On the 17th of December and Silent_0ne slips to number 2 on the leaderboards.
  1. vaike $3,835 ,17.44BB/100
  2. Silent_0ne69 $3,523, 4.25BB/100
Silent_0ne then makes a post that changes everything:
Silent_0ne : Hello everyone
firstly, I would like to say thank you so much to everyone who supported me throughout this bet. i cant stress how much it meant to me to see any post wishing me goodluck, or someone pming me given me some life lessons and more encouragement.
ive been approached by the bettors on numerous occasions regarding a buyout. the original buyout deal offered was 33%. eventually 37% was offered, and then 44%, and finally I agreed on 50% of total wagers from all 6 bettors as their buyout.
I am not really satisfied with a buyout, and I was not the one originally looking for the buyout. the bettors wanted it and I decided to see what they had to offer. what I wanted was time to spend with friends and family throughout the christmas break. With continuing this bet, I do have alot of confidence of accomplishing it, but at the expense of isolation through one of the most special times of each year. My family was mad at me when I tried explaining to them I probably wouldn't be able to particpate in any family events and have much if any celebration of christmas.
my goal the next 14 days was to just grind it out 10 hours each day with breaks inbetween, and sleep. Instead I will be able to go back to my regular, stress free grinding, and shipping 50% of the total wagers after half the month as gone by. In the end, including both the 100nl and 50nl prop bets, I made a net of roughly +20k. The other two options would be risking a net of -20k or a net of +60k. I took the variance free route, and all the bettors did the same thing. None of us wanted to lose the bet obviously, so I think we worked out a fair resolution with this buyout.
I have no hard feelings against fees or wcg rider. Perhaps a different scenerio would have occured if the recent issues did not occur, but thats in the past now and i'm looking forwards to a postive future. (#2511)
So, in the end all the parties involved reached a buyout agreement on the 50nl prop bet. Silent_0ne would stop playing the 50nl prop bet and would be up $20k. The community replies:
Ditch Digger: Silent, nice job. 50% is more than reasonable. (#2516)
kelnel: gg on +20k, u rocked!! (#2520)
shhhnake_eyes: I call this the most anticlimactic finish ever. (#2522)
Link to original thread.
submitted by GiantHorse to HobbyDrama [link] [comments]

Texas Hold'em and Tanks: How Poker Playstyles Predict Pixel Productivity

I got home from work early after my 3 month old desktop decided it was going on quarantine strike even though it's considered an essential industry, so I've decided to give you guys an extra article pecked out on my personal computer while I wait on friends to get online.
Also if you're wondering, Death and Shitbarns won the vote, so I'll get on them soon. Hell, today might be a dump of articles in the end. No, you get a life.
I picked up u/hmm2003 as a Tomato last month or so, and he's been playing with my clan almost daily. It's been going great until last night (I kid, I kid) when he left me hanging late in a match (we won, he got the final kill), but it turned into a great teaching moment about aggression and strategy that quickly morphed into me going on a tangent about online poker and how to read different players. Fast forward to today and my IT troubles left me plenty of to jot down an outline for turning my rant into an article.
As I formulated this article, I really began to like the metaphor between Texas Hold'em and WoT. Every game and every engagement can be treated like a hand of poker within a larger tournament. You rarely go against an opponent with the same size stack as you (health pool), different opponents at the poker table have different betting strategies (alpha), and sometimes the cards just beat you as your opponents 8% likelihood gut-shot straight draw beats your pocket pair you got a set with on the flop (RNG). All that is to say, rarely do you have an even fight before you begin, and that is where your poker play style earns (or loses) all the chips. The site I used to look up opponents when I played online poker religiously in college would rate a player both pre-flop and post flop. You could be Tight or Loose and Passive or Aggressive. For the purposes of this metaphor, I'm using Loose and Tight to refer to a tanker's strategy and positioning, and passive or aggressive to refer to their ability to use their hit points for value against the opponents either through direct or spotting damage. I don't remember all of the colors of fish on the site I used, so if you do and I'm wrong, sue me. Also, no player falls strictly into one category, but overall, they will tend to "revert" to one play style as they get tired or angry.

Calling Station

LOOSE-PASSIVE/LOOSE-PASSIVE
These can be some of your worst players in both poker and tanks. In poker, they will limp into as many flops as they can see, and then they'll check/call to the end with a mid pair. Sometimes they can win monster hands because their lack of understanding value means they can't be bet off a hand, but most times they lose because they can't let anything go. The same is true in tanks, they will seemingly drive into ridiculous scenarios, YOLO and die while accomplishing almost nothing. Many of these players will then turn around a ping the team they left behind wondering why they were alone. There's a certain infamous YouTuber many of you may know who would fall in this category. In the end, most of these players lack a basic understanding of the value of their hit points, will overextend for very little value, and rarely will have a good game. Will they get kills? Most certainly. Will they carry games? Once in a blue moon.

Mouse

TIGHT-PASSIVE/TIGHT-PASSIVE
On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have the mouse. These players are fundamentally better than the Calling Station, but still struggle to succeed. In poker, these players will wait and only bet good starting hands, but they are too timid to get the value out of their hands that they could. This is due to either a lack of understanding of the game and the odds or a lack of ability to read their opponent. The same can be said for tankers. They won't do much that will get them killed early, but their positioning clearly leaves much to be desired. This is your, well, base sniping Maus on Abbey. Not positioned poorly enough early on to get themselves killed, but many of these players won't get themselves into the render range of their opponents in time to be a significant force. They are too scared of being beaten by a better opponent that they won't engage until they are forced to. These players can get kills and even carry the occasional end game when they use their higher health pool to clean up one or two weak reds at the end, but most of the time they either die alone and surrounded or survive in the back with only a minimal amount of damage and rounds fired.

Green Fish

LOOSE-PASSIVE/TIGHT-PASSIVE
These players tend to be too aggressive for their own good early in the game. They see too many flops, but will find a way to get out if they don't get a good hand. Same goes for our tankers. They will push a little too far and relegate themselves to needing to play a conservative second-line game to try to survive to the end. They are better than the above-mentioned classes, but can suffer from "I'm a tank" syndrome as they sit out in the open in their heavy being pelted. If they survive, they typically calm down, but they're so low on health they aren't helping you until they're sure they can get that last shot in for the kill. You know, after you ate that round from the E4 and the M103 with 100 hitpoints bravely rounded that corner and killed him for you.

Blue Fish

TIGHT-AGGRESSIVE/TIGHT-PASSIVE
The Blue Fish is getting better. They know what starting hands are good and have value and bet accordingly. Sadly for them, they don't know much about how to play after the flop and lose the ability to press the advantage. These players might be your high greens to low light blues on the WN8 scale. Many know where to go and how to position their tanks in the general sense, but most lack the killer instinct to make the most of the situation after they run into the enemy. "No plan survives first contact with the enemy," nineteenth-century Prussian military commander Helmuth van Moltke was once quoted. How you react separates the winners from the losers.
These tankers find themselves struggling after they perceive themselves to be at a disadvantage. In a 1v1 scenario with what they consider an equally or over-matched opponent, they can assert themselves well, but tend to lose all direction when they think they're beat and resign themselves to it. With a bit more confidence and the requisite experience, these players will improve over time and find themselves carrying games and leading comebacks. This player will carry games and look like a hero, as long as they think they can, but will crumble mightily when the cards seem to be against them. They find themselves sharing that area on the WN8 scale with our next class.

Red Fish

TIGHT-AGGRESSIVE/LOOSE-AGGRESSIVE
In poker, these people know what starting hands have value. Their problem is an inability to let them go. Maybe you call it bluffing or they're mad they got beat, but they won't let off the throttle when they need to. In WoT, these are the guys that are getting that experience I was talking about. They have over-corrected from the Blue Fish, but it is an important learning step on the way to stardom. These guys typically play well early game, but when their plan goes to shit, they can tend to YOLO it out. I know it may seem backwards to say that they are a step up from the Blue Fish, but I can explain.
These players are beginning to recognize that they aren't always going to win, so they just go balls-out after the enemy like a kamikaze fighter. They don't believe they're making it out alive, so they are damn sure going to try to take you with them. This tanker probably stays in a good spot too long until it has become a death trap. After that point, when they come to the understanding that it's over, they let the tank they can't kill get an extra shot for the opportunity to kill the one shot guy behind. This is a better player with tons of potential, but an inconsistent one. Games will be carried, but games will also be lost on the back of this type of player.

Shark

TIGHT-AGRESSIVE/TIGHT-AGGRESSIVE
Professionals, unicums, greats, money-makers, champions. These are the best players at the table in poker. They know what cards you have almost as soon as you put your chips on the table. They are also your 2000+ WN8 tankers. They will rarely do something dumb, they're almost always one step ahead of their enemies, and they will wear you down even when they're at a disadvantage, and make you question whether you can beat them even if you should. These players will put themselves in a position to do damage early and often until they die or kill everyone they meet. They hold their positions through great use of armor angling, hull down tactics, and shot placement. When they push, typically they know they have a fighting chance if not a decisive advantage, but they aren't afraid to falling back and regrouping to give themselves an advantage later. It can come across as abandoning a team, but what they hope will happen next makes up for that. They will bait the average player into crossing into open territory when they shouldn't, or into a withering line of fire from the tanks behind them. Rarely will they leave a battle full health, but every hit point lost came at a cost to the enemy. No shot went untraded, and most cost the enemy more than was taken. They're almost always near the top of the leader board, and they're always a threat. These players will carry games almost entirely on their own, and can make it look effortless while they do it.
Hope you guys liked this and found it helpful. Maybe one or two of you with poker backgrounds will get what I'm saying, too.
submitted by lm_NER0 to WorldofTanksConsole [link] [comments]

James Bond Poker Hand Full Analysis!

We will be doing an analysis of this hand in question: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpvW1T7hXjo
Now, the filming of this hand starts on the turn, so we will have to do some estimation as to what had previously occurred.

Before the hand, the Floor Manager states that the Big Blind is $1m, so we will assume $500k small blind. This is a 4-handed game.

The 4 Players hands are as follows:

BB (Asain Guy): KsQs
CO (Black Guy): 8c8h
BTN (Bad Guy): Ac6h
SB (Bond): 5s7s

Chip denominations are as follows
Black Chip = $100k
Red Plaque = $500k
Blue Plaque = $1m

On the turn, the board is Ah8s6s4s

Also on the turn, we see something weird with the pot. It seems as though there is a pot, and then clips in front of each player https://imgur.com/a/z27Y0XJ
From this picture, looks like there is $4m in the pot in front of the dealer, with differing amounts in front of each player... Thankfully at 1:01 in the video a bystander states that $24m is already in the pot. From this we can deduce some pre-flop and flop action. Let's assume that the $4m in the POT is from pre-flop action, and the rest of the $24m is from flop action.

Also, from the turn and river action we can deduce starting stack sizes. Since there is $24m in the pot on the turn, each player has put in $6m. On the river, Asian Guy goes all-in for $6m, Black Guy $5m, and then at the end of the entire hand when Bond & Bad guy are all-in bystander states pot is $115m, AND it looks as though Bad Guy and Bond basically have the same amount of chips. From that, we can deduce that starting stacks are as follows.
CO (Black Guy): $11m (11 bbs)
Btn (Bad Guy): $46.5m (46.5 bbs)
SB (Bond): $46.5m (46.5 bbs)
BB (Asian Guy): $12m (12 bbs)
Total in play: $115m (115 bbs)


Pre-Flop:
CO limps $1m
BTN limps $1m
Bond (SB) completes $500k
BB checks

Well this is some terrible pre-flop action. With 88 and only 11 BBs, CO should be jamming here easily. the BTN limp is OK, but still probably pretty loose and would probably fold or raise the A6o here. Bond's complete in the SB is probably the best play pre-flop as he is getting a great price with his suited one-gapper. The BB here has an amazing squeeze spot with only 12 BBs and KQs, but decides to nittily check his option. Let's move to the flop.

Flop: Ah 8s 6s

Here again, we have to deduce some action, but it has to end with 4 players putting in $5m, so let's assume action is as follows...
Pot: $4m
Bond (SB): Check
BB: Check
CO: Bets $5m with set
BTN: Calls $5m with 2 pr
SB (Bond): Calls $5m with OESFD
BB: Calls $5m with FD

Overall, after the horrendous pre-flop play, this flop action wouldn't be the worst in the world..
Bond and the BB checking both their draws make sense.
CO betting his set makes sense, but he chooses an odd sizing, 1.25x the Pot. This leaves him with only $5m remaining, and basically tells his opponents that he isn't folding to a raise. He likely did this to protect/charge flush draws, but I think opting for a smaller sizing giving his opponents the illusion of his own fold equity would be a better play.
Bad Guy and Bond's calls seem reasonable.
Now BB is in an odd spot with a Flush Draw, but only $11m behind with $19m in the pot. He would be risking $5m to win $24m, so he would only need ~21% equity to continue. It seems like a weird spot where call/jam/fold all seem like reasonableish options at this point. He calls. Let's go to the turn.

Turn: Ah 8s 6s 4s

Checks through. Bond's check with the stone-cold nuts makes sense here. BB hit his gin card, with only $6m left in a $24m pot, I think a JAM probably is the best play to charge sets / two pair type holdings. Even if everyone folds he gains a massive pot. He checks.
CO with only $5m left has a tough spot. It's likely one of his opponents did hit a flush as all 4 stayed in on flop. However, I don't think getting away from this hand is possible at this point, and he even has odds to hit a FH if one of his opponents has a flush. JAM seems good here. He checks.
BTN can bet or check here with 2 pair here. Bond is the only player he is scared of, I am OK with the check for pot control.

River: Ah 8s 6s 4s As

Bond checks again. I would bet out here, trying to get other flushes to call, perhaps a crying call with an A. He checks.

BB at this point likely has the best hand with the nut flush. Jam for 1/4 pot seems good. He jams.

CO hits his GIN card on river. calling jam for $5m seems good. Pot is now $35m, Bond and Bad guy each have $40.5m behind.

Bad guy with the rivered 2nd nut boat (only loses to A8 and 57ss) has to raise here. But you have to wonder what Bond would call with. He raises to $12m, clicking it up. Bond is LOVING this action with the nuts. His only real option is a Jam with a ton of boats out there and he rips it in for $40.5m total.

Bad guy now has an option here. We can assume no ICM here and it is winner-take-all (with ICM folding seems good).

With no ICM, he has the 3rd best hand on this board, but what can Bond be shoving with that he beats?? With the 2 previous all-ins, Bond basically cannot be bluffing, he has no incentive too. So Bad Guy has to determine whether Bond is overplaying a hand that he can beat. The nut flush would likely call and may fold, Bond would never shove that.
So would Bond shove all his Full Houses here? A8, A6, A4, 88, 66, 44, along with the one 57ss combo? If yes, then Bad Guy has to call, he simply beats enough of that range.

At the end of the day, I think Bad Guy's call seems reasonably with the A6o and this is really just a COOLER situation, and I would investigate the game/dealer with this set-up hand. Bond ships the $115m after a bunch of slowrolling occurs.

I think the major errors come pre-flop here, when both CO and BB should've been getting it in pre-flop.
submitted by slippinJimmy93 to poker [link] [comments]

Is this the right play?

Is this the right play?

https://preview.redd.it/z3kovo835a251.jpg?width=1386&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=71e6cb4eb5345c4ffc307eb9d9f38a4f4ad1ddd0
I'm fairly new to poker (as you can see from the trial version of pokertracker). I'd like to get some opinions on whether i played this correctly.
Pre Flop: I raise to 4bb, Button calls, sb calls
Flop: The sb donk bets the full pot and I re raise to around 3x his bet.
(After some thought I think this probably should have been a flat call given stack sizes.)
The bu calls and sb 3bets to essentially an all in leaving himself 10bb. I call and the bu folds. The rest then goes in on the turn.
Other than a bluff the only hands I can put him on that would play this way are 77 and 89. I think tens or better would 3bet pre flop given his position.
So given pot odds and equity I think I made the right call here.
submitted by Proof_Return to poker [link] [comments]

Hand review request: What to do when AK misses the flop

.02/.05 online via Ignition, no information about opponentHero: $14.64 Villain: $2.55
Hero on BTN with AKo. Hijack limps, Villain in CO raises to 5BB, hero re-raises to 17BB, folds to Villain who calls.
Flop ($1.82): 652, 2 spades, hero has no spades.Villain checks, hero bets 47c (25%). Villain jams his remaining 1.70.
***
Using PT4s equity calculator and giving villain a wide range of top 30%, I have around 58% equity. A wide range only makes sense if I think my opponent is a little too early to jump to a shove/fold mentality. A narrower range of the top 7% of hands leaves me with around 41% equity. (Against any 2 cardw, I'm at 48% equity).
I'm thinking either way this might be a give-up spot; I don't have any backdoor hands I can hit, I missed the pairs, and my opponent showed aggression. At the low end of 41% equity against the best possible hands, I probably have very little fold equity even if I were the first to take aggressive action.
My 1/4 pot bet on the flop was poorly chosen in retrospect. Checking back against his likely strong range makes a lot more sense, as I'm likely behind looking to catch up, and if I'm going to bet, it probably needs to be aggressive to get folds-- representing AA-JJ.
I considered his shove to be polarized... given his strong betting pre-flop, he likely missed this flop entirely. I chose the hero call option, with 6 outs and 2 cards to hit, plus the chance of winning with A-high, and opponent showing possible weakness with a check on the flop after just calling the 4-bet instead of shoving pre.
Reviewing the hand now, though, I don't think there are many bluffs in his range. The pre-flop action makes it unlikely that he has unpaired hands besides maybe AQ and AK, which I am blocking. My aggressive pre-flop raise also means I am unlikely to have air and would likely discourage some bluffs, and the board texture doesn't provide any opportunities that I can see for a bluff-- the worst it offers is a flush draw, I'm getting a good price to call against that*. The only argument in favor of my opponent bluffing is that my small raise on the flop might make him think I'm vulnerable. But that makes little sense for a pure bluff unless he puts me on exactly AK or AQ.
But the thing is... giving up with AK when the flop is so dry just seems like a weak play. It doesn't sit well with me even though being objective about it, it seems like the obvious right choice.
***
Results: opponent has 69hh, I call and lose to a pair of sixes.
*right? I just sort of assumed... I'm getting pot odds of 22% to call, and he has 9 outs to a flush for ~36% chance of hitting, meaning I have ~64% chance of fading the flush... is that the right way to think about it? And of course we also have to discount those outs heavily as there's a good chance he doesn't have 2 spades, especially given that most of his range is pairs.
submitted by realvmouse to poker [link] [comments]

Common Poker Mistakes pt 2

#6 – Playing Small Pairs in Early Position
Since you only see a pocket pair, on average once every sixteen hands, when one lands it can be very seductive, especially if you’ve been forced to the sidelines by a long series of terrible hands that have gone immediately into the muck. There are several problems inherent in the play of small pairs out of position. In a full game, they rarely win in a showdown without improvement. The improvement needed is to make a set which is almost 8-to-1 against pre-flop. Sure, they can often be played in no-limit when implied odds are at work and you’re looking to set mine, but generally – when you’re in a full game you should exercise the discipline to only play quality hands from early position. When the game becomes short handed your small pairs will soar in value.
#7 – Game Selection
Most of us have heard the old aphorism – If after the first ten minutes at the table, you can’t spot the sucker, then it’s you. But how do you know? You need to start by studying your opponents to see who is or isn’t making mistakes. Hopefully you can do this before you even sit down so if you have a choice of seats you can make a better more informed decision. Remember, if you cannot determine that any of your opponents are making any errors in judgment then why stay in a game when there must be easier pickings elsewhere. You’ve probably heard the story about the ninth best hold’em player in the entire world. His only failing was that he regularly played with the top eight players in the world. Don’t fall into that trap. Study your opponents to gauge their level of knowledge and skill to make sure you can compete profitably in the game.
#8 – Not Recognizing Opportunities
Beginner players who aspire to greater poker heights focus on good solid starting hand values, not playing too many hands, and they work hard on their discipline. In essence they evolve into good ABC players. In order to move up to the next level and become a skilled winning poker player one must do more than just play solid by the book poker. Poker is a game of relative values so you don’t necessarily need a monster hand to win – just one better than your opponent. Better yet, sometimes you just need a well timed/sized bet to make your opponent lay down the winning hand. The key element of recognizing profitable opportunities is good position. By playing position you’re in the driver’s seat to steal blinds and orphan pots. Force yourself outside the mind set of playing by the book, and take advantage of opportunities. Remember, good cards come and go but opportunities arise constantly.
#9 – Not Laying Down Losers
Not being able to make a good lay down in limit poker can cost you some bets. This same frailty in no-limit will get you to the felt quicker than any other mistake. This egregious error ties back to some of the other elements such as overcalling and cold calling raises. There is no magic pill to make sure you always lay down the losers but never lay down a winner. The proper feel will come through studying your opponents and gaining more and more experience. When put to the test think through the likely holdings of your opponent and consider giving him credit for the hand he is representing instead of your chips.
#10 – Math and Odds
If you aspire to play poker well you must appreciate that knowledge of math and probability is a must. Most poker players know the standard odds of drawing hands like straights and flushes and if you don’t, take this as a wakeup call to search out that information and commit it to memory. Our beginner lesson on drawing odds outlines this fundamental concept and explains a shorthand method of figuring the odds you face when you have two cards to come and when the only card left is the river. This knowledge is critical to success.
submitted by PresentType to theinfosdPkvQQ [link] [comments]

2020 NFL Draft Review - Analysis and Career Predictions for Each Team's Draft Class - AFC South

We continue with the divisional rundown of the 2020 NFL Draft with the intriguing AFC South. Catch up on the other installments of this 2020 NFL Draft review series with the NFC South, AFC East, NFC East, AFC North, and NFC North.
Every year after the draft, I write a way-too-long review of each team’s draft. The purpose of this draft review is to give predictions for the careers of each team’s drafted players. I’ve watched film of each player I’m commenting on. Draft grades are overly optimistic and unrealistic. Unlike the majority of post-draft coverage out there, I will pick busts. Keep in mind that 23.4% of all first-round picks bust.
Let me preface this by saying: predicting the career of an NFL draft pick is a ridiculous exercise. There is so much unknown that goes into whether a player succeeds or fails at the next level. I can make educated guesses based on team situation, supporting cast, and research about the prospect’s character and work ethic, but there’s a reason teams make so many mistakes every year. You simply don’t know for sure how a player will react to being a pro. Injuries are also a huge factor in the fate of a player and impossible to predict accurately. Nevertheless, this is a fun exercise and gives us a chance to review how each team approached the draft.

Overview

Before we start, here are some of my general thoughts on the 2020 NFL Draft.
Quickly on the broadcast - they did a great job given the circumstances. The production quality was great and they did more actual analysis than usual. My main gripe with draft coverage every year is that they don’t show incredible highlights (they somehow didn’t show the Aaron Dobson catch in 2013). This year, they showed more footage of actual football and I appreciated that. The only two negatives for me were the constant tragic stories and Booger McFarland.
Oh, and if any poor soul bet on Justin Jefferson Under 21.5 draft position, ESPN should apologize to you. They showed him on the phone celebrating right before cutting to Goodell announcing the 21st pick - Jalen Reagor to the Eagles. Jefferson was of course on the phone with the Vikings, who took him at 22. Brutal beat.
As for the draft, remember this tweet about mock drafts being “wronger” than ever? Funny, this was probably the chalkiest first-round ever in the internet age. Nothing was truly shocking to me, including the Packers trading up for Jordan Love (more on that here). I had Damon Arnette in the first round in my first mock draft this draft season. I wrote an article lauding Jordyn Brooks as an undervalued commodity. Noah Ibinoghene going in the first was surprising, I suppose. But there was no Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 or Tyson Alualu at No. 10. It speaks to how the media and internet scouts might be catching up to, or God forbid actually influencing the teams.
So here is another installment of my annual draft review. Each player will receive their career prediction in parentheses following their name. For example: Joe Burrow (5). Here's how the picks break down:
5 – All-Pro: Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position. 4 – Above-Average: Starter who has been among the best at his position. 3 – Solid: Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production. 2 – Replacement Level: Below-average starter or back-up who made minor contributions. 1 – Bust: Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.
Next up, the AFC South.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars had one of the best drafts in the league. They came in needing to re-tool the defense and added two of my top-15 players. In the second they took a high-upside playmaker, and capped their day-two haul with one of my favorite run-stuffers in the entire draft.
C.J. Henderson (4) has shutdown corner talent. He has the innate ability to cover people in man, showing good technique in press, off, trail, and motor. His coverage instincts and breaks on the ball are on par with Jeff Okudah. Henderson’s weakness defending the run is partially due to a lack of ideal strength. If the Jaguars play enough man coverage, it won’t be exposed much. Henderson’s blazing speed was on display on an unreal hustle play to force a touchback (gif below). He has very pretty feet. I’m not Rex Ryan, I swear.
📷
With the 20th-overall pick, the Jaguars selected one of my favorite players in the entire draft in LSU’s K’Lavon Chaisson (5). Chaisson was the 9th-ranked player on my board and epitomizes the traits vs. performance misconception. In 2015 I endorsed Danielle Hunter as a big-time pass rusher despite tallying just 4.5 sacks at LSU. It’s coincidental that any critique of Chaisson begins with “lack of production.” On film, there are instances of being this-close due to technique deficiencies. He likely did not always great out amazingly with his position coach. But as far as evaluating translatable traits, and projecting him to the completely different NFL game, Chaisson is oozing with upside at just 20 years old.
Everyone agrees that Chaisson's physical traits are outstanding. He’s an exceptional athlete, somehow both smooth and twitchy with great balance. He’s a raw speed rusher who can bend, and has ideal ankle flexion for an edge player. Against older and more experienced tackles like Andrew Thomas and Alex Leatherwood, Chaisson didn’t always produce or perform well in an NCAA context. However, he had reps where he won and/or displayed ideal translatable traits in terms of pass-rushing technique, power, speed, handwork, and moves he can develop. My notes are overwhelmingly positive. He destroyed a guard on a stunt, stunted over two gaps to explode inside for a sack, showed big hits in space, beat Leatherwood twice off the ball, and showed power against the Oklahoma left tackle. I was right on Hunter. Chaisson has even more upside.
In the second round, the Jaguars selected one of the most enigmatic players in the draft in Colorado’s Laviska Shenault Jr (3). Shenault was flat-out dominant for the majority of his college career, standing out as the best player on the field in most games. His power is uncommon for a wide receiver. As a run-after-catch threat, he’s in the Cordarrelle Patterson mold. And while he’s undoubtedly a better natural receiver than Patterson, he’s still too raw to start at Z right away. His stop-start ability is terrific and he’s a threat to take it to the house on hitch routes. His coaching staff gave him a 4th-and-2 end-around.
As a vertical receiver, his film leaves a lot to be desired, with multiple bad offensive pass interference, lack of separation and ball tracking, and route-running issues. Simply put, he’s raw. There’s a lot of projection here, and if he puts it all together, he can be a star. His lack of timed speed (4.58 40) actually did show on tape. On the Cordarrelle Patterson-Anquan Boldin spectrum, I predict he’ll land closer to Boldin. The draft slot disparity between he and Henry Ruggs shows how much NFL teams value speed over college production. Perhaps they shouldn’t.
I wrote extensively about Davon Hamilton (4) here. He’ll develop into one of the best run-stuffers in the league and a top interior force. I also liked Ben Bartch (3) and even Josiah Scott (2) a bit, while the rest of the draft community thought the enormous Collin Johnson (2) was a steal. The Jaguars made 12 picks. If six of them are still on the roster in three years, this rookie class will spark a successful re-build.

Tennessee Titans

When the Titans drafted Marcus Mariota, the vast majority of people thought he'd become a franchise quarterback. I predicted he would max out as an Alex Smith-level player. The Mariota era is over in Tennessee, as Ryan Tannehill parlayed his late-season surge into a huge contract. The Titans came into this draft without any glaring holes. Their first two picks suggest they went with the best player available on their board.
Unfortunately, Isaiah Wilson (1) was nowhere near the best player on my board at No. 29. I had him ranked 67th-overall despite rumors he would be a first-round pick. Clearly something was off with the perception of Wilson, as the draft community was much lower on him than NFL teams. One reason for the disparity is how much the NFL values pure size in the trenches. At 6-6, 350, Wilson surely looks the part. I think NFL decision-makers still put a value on “first-guy-off-the-bus” type bodies, which Wilson definitely has.
The actual film shows arguably more pure strength than Mekhi Becton, but not nearly the same athleticism. He’s a raw right tackle who is good on double teams and shows awesome power when he gets his hands inside. The issue I can’t get over is his tendency to bend at the waist and miss initial hand placements. He wasn’t even in the top 100 players on PFF’s big board, which suggests he may not have graded out well. They’ll need to coach bad posture habits out of him and hope he keeps his weight in check.
I was also not a huge fan of Kristian Fulton (2). Fulton was productive in terms of pass break-ups and one of the top performers at DBU. But again, projecting to the NFL is not about college performance, it’s about translatable NFL traits. There’s a reason such a productive college player with ideal speed and measurables fell to 61. Fulton generally struggled to get his head around defending verticals along the boundary, showing a lack of ideal balance and some clumsiness. He made a couple of big plays against Virginia, but was “weirdly beat in the red zone.” I had Fulton ranked 48th overall, but if I could re-do my board after the draft, I’d put guys like Arnette and Robertson over him.
📷
While I didn’t have Darrynton Evans (3) in my top-100 due to positional value, I am always a fan of selecting running backs on day two. Evans’ speed (4.41), production, and ultimate draft slot all point to future fantasy success. If he can learn pass protection, he can replace Dion Lewis quite easily. His film against South Carolina wasn’t great, but that speed plays, and is a great complement to Derrick Henry.
Remember that last year’s first-rounder Jeffrey Simmons started his rookie year fresh off a serious injury. It is fair to expect him to grow as a player, perhaps developing into an All-Pro. It will be fascinating to see if Tannehill can repeat his 2019 magic. If he plays at a high level again, Tennessee has the offensive supporting cast to contend in the AFC.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts came into the draft with needs at wide receiver and defensive back. After trading for DeForest Buckner, they didn't have a first-round pick. The biggest Colts storyline going into the draft was the possibility of selecting a quarterback early. They chose not to, and I agree with that decision.
Michael Pittman Jr. (3) seemingly has it all. He plays fast (4.52) with great size (6-4, 223) and excellent hands. He dominated certain games, including Utah, which featured multiple pros in their defensive backfield. In terms of physical traits, there is no question he has what it takes to be an outstanding pro. However, a deeper look into his film has me questioning his transition a little. He's not particularly strong for his size and doesn't possess great balance. His shoulder pads flop when he runs - it sounds odd but he plays a bit high. It's understandable for someone his size, but I have to be fair to my notes.
He blocked a punt and has a lot of "college" highlights, mossing poor 5-10 corners and blowing by 2-star recruits. When I went back for a second look I kind of loved his fluidity. He could be an outstanding pro or just-a-guy. The sweet spot for wideouts is typically the second round so I'll bet on him.
So where should an incredibly talented and productive Big Ten running back be selected in the NFL Draft? A few years ago Saquon Barkley parlayed an ideal frame, 4.4 speed, and tremendous statistical production into being selected second overall. Jonathan Taylor (3) was routinely thought of as a late-first to earl-second-round pick throughout the draft process, with a similar size/speed/production mix. The main on-paper differences were receiving production and fumbling. Are those differences worth such a disparity in draft stock? The point here is to pre-emptively defend my evaluation of Jonathan Taylor. He was an elite college back, but I do not believe he profiles as a special back in the NFL. His film is more solid than amazing.
Taylor's positives on film are obvious. He's smooth with home run speed and tremendous vision. He understands blocking schemes and is difficult to get down to the ground. However, his film, specifically against Illinois, is more solid than spectacular. I do not know if his not-going-down skills translate to the pro game where everyone is bigger, faster, and stronger. He gets knocked back and doesn't drive the pile way too much. Perhaps he's picking his spots, which leads to the first of the three frequent arguments against him - tread on tires (probably overrated), too many drops, and fumbling issues. Going to Indianapolis, he will have the best offensive line in football blocking for him and less pass-game responsibility. I do not expect him to be an All-Pro back, but I will likely target him early and often in fantasy leagues due to situation.
Julian Blackmon (3) has injury question marks but shows a spirited playstyle and tackling ability that translates. He has all the football traits, but deep speed is a question mark. His short-area burst is great, but he had a poor game against USC, displaying some bad angles. He should be a solid specials contributor and third safety at absolute worst.
I had Jacob Eason (2) ranked in the top-30 on my first big board. I liked his film a lot. Against Oregon, he looked like a first-round pick. The best trait Eason shows on film is his ability to make quick decisions. He loves slants, will get to his check-downs, and was good against pressure in the games I saw. Obviously he has the arm, but I noted his deep ball placement as "meh." Washington had arguably the best offensive line in the country, but Eason didn't have great weapons, as I noted multiple drops by receivers. Another underrated trait is his ball-handling, as his footwork on play-action shot plays was excellent. I would have picked Eason to be a good player if I did not read concerning insight into his character in Bob McGinn's Athletic article with quotes from scouts. That's why he fell so far. I'll give a good coaching staff a chance to develop him, but playing quarterback is so hard, you can't have question marks surrounding your intangibles for anyone to feel confident in your transition.
The Colts will take a stab at contending this year with Philip Rivers at quarterback, a great offensive line, and excellent coaching staff. They decided to build on a strength, adding Jonathan Taylor to an already talented running back room. Analytics folks may not love it, but the 49ers just had a successful year with a run-heavy attack. With how much nickel and dime teams play, it might be smart to zig when everyone else zags.

Houston Texans

The Texans essentially used their first-round pick on stud left tackle Laremy Tunsil, then extended him. One of the main reasons first-round picks are so valuable is because of how cheap rookie contracts are. So while Tunsil is clearly worth a first-round pick in a vacuum, it’s not as much of a no-brainer considering the difference in salaries. They came into the draft needing help on defense.
With the 40th overall pick they selected TCU defensive lineman Ross Blacklock (3), the 59th-ranked player on my board. While watching Blacklock’s film, I noted he would fit in best as a true nose tackle. He played his gap well, shooting out of his low four-point stance. He showed strength at the point of attack and made me think of him as a potential impact run-stuffer. Then I looked at his measurables. At just 290 pounds, Blacklock simply does not have the size to be a premier run-stuffer at the pro level. Blacklock showed a good rip move for a sack against Purdue but showed almost no juice as a pass rusher against Texas.
My Reverse Planet Theory states that the relative worst offensive linemen in college football play inside. There are only so many quality offensive linemen in the world, and in the NCAA most play tackle. When lovable penetrating defensive tackles transition to the NFL, they are now matched up against amazing interior talents and converted tackles. No other position has a jump up in competition like interior defensive linemen. Blacklock is a potential victim of the Reverse Planet Theory, but his understanding of leverage is what will make him a decent pro.
With their next pick, the Texans took Jonathan Greenard (1) of Florida. Greenard moves like he has cement in his cleats, and has substandard change of direction ability. He has some competitiveness and physicality, but not enough juice as a pass rusher to be a true edge dude. His production was nice at the college level, but I’m not even sure if his traits will allow him to be a rotational asset or special teams contributor. He wasn’t in my top 100.
Bill O’Brien received a lot of deserved hate after dealing away DeAndre Hopkins. Personal issues probably played a role, but there is no excuse for only receiving essentially a second-round pick and veteran running back for one of the best receivers in football. The next few drafts are vital for Houston, as they won’t have much cap space after inevitably extending Deshaun Watson.
Thanks for reading. Stay tuned for the NFC West and AFC West in the coming days.
AFC South Article with Gifs: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-afc-south/736898
NFC South: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-south/736460
AFC East: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-afc-east/736202
NFC East: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-east/735919
AFC North: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-afc-north/735564?src=cat_feat_9954
NFC North: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-north/734932
submitted by gpngc to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]

Blind battle tournament late stage (hand analysis)

Hi guys!
I just finished a small turbo tournament at my local Akihabara room, and I am pretty happy with how I played all along, maybe sometimes too nitty, but I feel like I messed up for the last hand.
The context : 4 players in total remaining among about 36 entries. Everyone has quite the same amount of chips (10-15 BB). I am in the BB with 10BB and it folds to the SB who covers me slightly, who elects to raise about 2.3BB. It is an awkard move I never saw him do. In blind battle he just all-in'd me prior to this hand, so I put him on something goddamn strong. He his probably the most competent player at the table and I believe he knows his push/fold ranges (not my case :)) .
I have JQo and after tanking a bit, I call, but I really considered folding here. Flop comes J75 rainbow, he C-Bet 3BB, and I shoved all-in.
In all honesty, considering the action, would who have rather : 1. Fold pre like the nit I am ? 2. Call the pre-flop raise hoping to flop the miracle, then fold to the C-Bet? 3. Call the pre-flop raise and C-Bet then fold on a subsequent bet? (i think it's honestly the worst) 4. Just jam that goddamn top pair!
So he did have AA, and I really didn't follow my instinct here that he wouldn't have bet so small pre with something else than AA, KK, maybe QQ but AK? I doubt it.
The thing is that, if I am calling to fold top pair on the flop, what's the point of calling pre in the first place? So i feel the right thing to do here was actually to fold pre, and wait for better spots to shove or call a shove with the odds on my side (given that there was an additional tournament ticket to win going beyond 4th place). JQ suited, I would probably call though as i have more chances to beat an overpair and the price was so cheap.
What do you think? Am I on the way of becoming the local OMC or is it right to do this kind of exploitative folds from time to time when things doesn't feel right?
Thanks for reading, and good luck for your games!
submitted by Hermillion to poker [link] [comments]

Should I study poker? What should I focus on?

Hey guys, thanks in advance for any help.
Here's the thing: I'm 24 and in college. I don't invest anything in poker, I only play freerolls. The site I play on offers two freerolls per day that pay 5€ tickets. I use those tickets to play and withdraw the money to invest in my other projects or something I want, I keep the money on the site until I have enough to buy whatever my goal was (a new watch, a new jacket, whatever) and then keep 15€ behind because that's the minimum required to withdraw so I can keep adding small wins. Apart from that I play small tournaments (buy-in from 1 to 50 cents) that get me and extra ~5-10€ every day . I'm not (at least right now) thinking about getting serious with poker, cash games, moving up the stakes, whatever.
And that's my question. To what level of skill do I have to progress to beat those 5€ buy-in tournaments (I'm not talking about the 1-50 cents because those are super turbos and the reason I'm beating them is mostly due to being conservative and aggressive and there's not much more to it)? These tournaments have a player pool of ~400-500 for the $7.500 daily tournament, and ~200-300 for the smaller $2.500.
That's all I want from this game right now is the ability to consistently get at least ITM in those small stakes tournaments. The thing is, and this is one of my best traits but at the same time also a curse, whenever I try to learn something, I get obsessed with it because I think everything matters. So right now I'm thinking "I need to learn how to beat MTTs consistently". So I went on google searching for videos, went on big poker channels, went on online poker schools, etc.
Right now I've totaled over 20+ hours on bluff theory, odds, reading ranges, when to check/raise, small ball, responding to 3-bets, position, tournament stages, dealing with limpers, etc. I have this all summarized in a Word document. Each of the videos that deal with this takes ~1-2 hours. And I have 450 bookmarks (no exaggeration, I actually spent 2 hours just putting them together) of youtube videos on more theory, from Negreanu, Jonathan Little, and the Poker Stars School (when to overbet, when to dunk bet, dealing with [each opponent type], ICM, range advantage and bullying, and then a ton of videos on hand reviews).
And this is not taking away from my school work, I'm still doing pretty well on school. It is, however, taking away from other interests I'd rather take priority over poker at least for now. I've spent over 3-4 hours the past few days just viewing and taking notes on these videos. And I can't help but feel this is mostly a waste of time, because I'm only playing at most 4-5 tournaments per day and I have no ambition of getting serious at the game any time soon. I only want to reach a certain profit before withdrawing to buy some things. And I'm also not investing any money, at most what can happen if I play badly is I lose all my tickets and am unable to win the satellite.
Am I right or should I try to make time to learn these things? Is there anything I should focus on? I already have a pretty steady grip on the "basics" (calculating all types of odds, being aggressive, pre-flop range, board texture, having at least some idea of how to range opponents), but I'm lacking on post flop play (ie. What to do with medium to decent hands in a certain board texture assuming I have no reads because I'm not paying that much attention to the game). I do however have a Word document I've constructed for a while on common lines people at these stakes seem to take and what they mean.
Should I look at anything more?
submitted by danielgoncalves7 to poker [link] [comments]

Crazy hero fold spot possible here?

2/4 800 effective on pokerbros. I iso a fish limp on the button for 16 with KTo. Tight reg calls in the SB--her range here is kinda defined imo, she normally plays 3bet or fold from the small blind so I think it is very pocket pair heavy and maybe some suited connectors. Implied odds type hands to stack the whale. She will probably play 3bet or fold with her big Broadway hands I think. Fish calls and flop is T85, 2 spades. Checked to me I bet 28, reg calls, fish folds. Turn K I bet 110, she raises to 300. Realistically what do we beat here? Combo draws would either raise flop or just flat turn, raising turn is terrible for obv reasons. Flatting flop with a set is kinda common in this pool even if it's not optimal--with fish behind she may be incentivised to invite his garbage in too. No other 2pairs call pre. Could we fold or am I crazy?
Would be even more insane explo too since I am barreling that king a shit ton, but this spot must be heavily underbluffed
submitted by beeeemo to poker [link] [comments]

Line check, 6max CO vs BTN, flopping the world with a suited connector

6max NL cash game, 100bb effective, no info on villain.
I’m sitting in the BTN with 65dd.
CO opens to 3bb, I 3bet to 9bb on the BTN, blinds fold, CO calls. Now you could argue that 65s is a bit too loose to 3bet, but it’s one of the few suited connectors I’ll 3bet in this spot.
Flop Ad 9d 4c [19.5bb]: So I have a backdoor straight draw and a flush draw. The Ad and 9d remove several flush draws from villains range so I think I’m unlikely to get check-raised. On this particular texture I’m betting ⅓ pot with most of my (Ace-X heavy) range in position. Not sure if that’s correct, but it’s simple enough.
Anyway. CO checks, I bet 6bb, CO calls.
Turn Ad 9d 4c 8c [31.5bb]: So I improve to a 4-out straight draw + flush draw. Tons of outs. I fully intend on double-barreling, but then villain leads into me for ⅔ pot. At this point, I think villain could have sets, maybe some A9/A8/A4/98 two pair that‘s getting nervous, but I also think they have a lot of natural bluffs in this spot. Regardless, I have a ton of outs, and I’m never folding here. I debated just shoving here (any smaller and the SPR on the river is super awkward), but thought I was probably only getting called by better hands and folding out worse. Ultimately I decided to flat, thinking I would have plenty of implied odds and likely stack villain when I hit my draw.
CO bets 20bb, Hero calls.
River Ad 9d 4c 8c 7c [71.5bb]: Bam! The straight completes on the river. Beautiful. The only problem is, we have the bottom end of it, and club flush got there. Villain makes a block-bet for 18bb. I’m feeling good in this spot, because this is exactly the kind of bet a worse hand (two-pair, set, Ax, etc) would make. Sure he could be doing this with a better straight or a flush, but I figure those hands would probably bet bigger.
CO bets 18bb, Hero shoves for 65bb. CO calls.
[Outcome in the comments]
What do you guys think? Should I have shoved on the turn? Flatted the river? Bet bigger on the flop? Fold pre? Lemme know.
submitted by tombos21 to poker [link] [comments]

Beginner Hand Analysis - What could I have done better?

Looking for some help/views on this hand please. I am a beginner and trying to teach myself to play tighter. Perhaps I should have raised stronger pre-flop after then again after the flop? I'm learning about outs / pot odds at the moment and thought I had to call the all in after the river of trips 10. What should I have been looking out for? Sorry for the long post & if formatting isn't correct.
No Limit Hold'em $0.01/$0.02
Stacks: UTG ($2.06) MP ($0.71) CO ($2.06) BTN ($2.20) SB Hero ($3.72) BB ($2.62)
Preflop: ($0.03, 6 players) Hero is SB with T♥ T♠. UTG calls $0.02, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.04, BB calls $0.02, UTG calls $0.02, BTN calls $0.02
Flop: 8♣ 6♥ 7♦ ($0.16, 4 players - BB: $2.58, UTG: $2.02, BTN: $2.16, Hero: $3.68) Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, BTN bets $0.08, Hero calls $0.08, 2 folds
Turn: 5♣ ($0.32, 2 players - BTN: $2.08, Hero: $3.60) Hero checks, BTN bets $0.26, Hero calls $0.26
River: T♦ ($0.84, 2 players - BTN: $1.82, Hero: $3.34). Hero bets $0.81, BTN raises to $1.82 (all-in), Hero calls $1.01
Total Pot: $4.48 BTN shows J♦ 9♣ (a straight, Seven to Jack). Hero shows T♥ T♠ (three of a kind, Tens) BTN wins $4.32
submitted by chalk_lord to poker [link] [comments]

Hand analysis: Check or bet the river with Pocket Aces here?

Poker Bros App .2/.4 6 handed. Player to my right is a known maniac, other than that I'm new to the table and don't have much background on any players.
I am UTG and dealt black aces. Standard 3x raise to 1.2 CO, BTN, and BB (maniac) all call
Flop comes Jd7c2d. I lead for 1.9 into 5, a little small, but I try to mix small sizing for both bluffs and overpairs, so that was my thinking here. Probably should have sized up with 4 players though.
CO folds, BTN and BB call.
Turn is 5c, I lead again for 5.35, BTN raises to 16.1, BB and I call.
River is 4s.
Question: Do I bet here for value? My thinking is at these stakes I have seen a lot of people play very odd hands that make weird two pairs, plus any set is a possibility, especially when no one 3 bet pre. Obviously all the draws missed but I still have the button to act behind me and if he shoves on a raise I just have to close my eyes and hit the call button.
Result: River checks through and I turn up the winner.
submitted by cald97poker to poker [link] [comments]

10nl hands for review

Here are some hands from this morning's session of 10nl.
H1----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTN: 100 BB Hero (SB): 110.4 BB BB: 126.2 BB UTG: 117.5 BB MP: 80.1 BB CO: 620.2 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qd Jd fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 11 BB, fold, BTN calls 8.5 BB
Flop : (23 BB, 2 players) 8c Jc 8s
Hero bets 7 BB, BTN calls 7 BB
Turn : (37 BB, 2 players) Th
Hero?
Villain (23 17 5 1600 hands) opens OTB and hero 3bets in the BB. Villain calls.
Think flop looks good for a small range bet or even a check as this board is generally not great for our range compared to the BTN's flatting range. Decided to go with a small bet and villain calls.
OTT I'm not sure what I should be doing. Some straight draws just got there and a lot more straight draws we just introduced. Not a lot of the straight draws OTF make a lot of sense to have in 3bet pot, but they should show up from time to time. I block all of the Qx straight draws. Our kicker is only a Q as well. Think there's a decent chance a good villain who has picked up a lot of equity on this turn will shove over the top if we continue here so I think checking is the best option.
H2----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTN: 112.6 BB SB: 120.3 BB BB: 120 BB UTG: 174.5 BB Hero (MP): 101.5 BB CO: 138.1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Jh Js fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, CO calls 2.5 BB, fold, SB calls 2 BB, fold
Flop : (8.5 BB, 3 players) 2s 7s 6h SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets 4.2 BB, fold, Hero calls 4.2 BB
Turn : (16.9 BB, 2 players) 7h Hero checks, CO bets 8.4 BB, Hero calls 8.4 BB
River : (33.7 BB, 2 players) Tc Hero checks, CO bets 16.8 BB, Hero?
Hero opens and is flatted in the CO and SB by two fish (49 16 7 70 hands) and (22 17 3 409 hands).
SB checks and we are definitely checking. This is a board we would do a lot of checking on naturally. CO bets half pot, SB folds and we call.
Turn isn't great as I would expect villain to openly bet any 7x combos he has OTF. However, there are tons of draws and this kind of player can have tons of other junk he thinks is worth betting as well. So when he fires half pot again, I am not folding.
OTR two combos of 89s get there, otherwise not much has changed. When villain fires another half pot bet OTR I think it's really close at this point. Seems like 7x based on the continued betting for all three streets, but his range is so wide with 50 VPIP that I think we have to call.
H3----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTN: 43 BB SB: 137 BB Hero (BB): 147.4 BB UTG: 362.1 BB MP: 100 BB CO: 106.9 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Js Jd UTG calls 1 BB, MP raises to 4.1 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero?
A fish limps UTG and is raised by a good player (24 21 14 7k hands). I think this is a good hand to flat in the BB for two reasons. 1) If I 3bet I really don't want UTG and MP to both flat, or get 4bet by UTG or MP. 2) I expect that if I flat UTG will likely flat most of the time as well which essentially gives us better odds to flat, even though he hasn't acted yet. This also leaves with a strongly deceived hand, which is good against someone like MP who likely wouldn't suspect us to flat JJ here.
submitted by Boomer162636 to poker [link] [comments]

Hands for review

Here are some hands from my 10nl session this morning. Skipped posting yesterday because I was trying to take a break and reset my mindset.
H1:
BTN: 100 BB SB: 120.5 BB BB: 100.1 BB Hero (UTG): 171.8 BB MP: 90 BB CO: 123 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7c 8c Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold
Flop : (6.5 BB, 2 players) 4s Td 6h Hero checks, BTN bets 3.2 BB, Hero raises to 11.1 BB, BTN calls 7.9 BB
Turn : (28.7 BB, 2 players) 8h Hero?
Hero opens 87s UTG and is flatted OTB by a fairly competent player (22 16 7 843 hands). I know 87s UTG is kind of loose but I think it is probably +EV.
The flop is one that definitely doesn't favor our typical UTG range and I think that means it is a good check. Villain bets. Now I think this is a good time to check raise even with the board being dry. We pick up equity on any 5,7,8,9 or J. So while check raising we can continue to barrel on a lot of turns. Villain calls.
Turn is one of the cards mentioned before and thus I think we should keep barreling. Thoughts?
H2:
BTN: 80.5 BB SB: 204 BB BB: 278.4 BB Hero (UTG): 147.1 BB MP: 159.3 BB CO: 100 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ah Jh Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB
Flop : (5.5 BB, 2 players) Jd 5d 7h BB checks, Hero bets 3.2 BB, BB raises to 10.1 BB, Hero calls 6.9 BB
Turn : (25.7 BB, 2 players) 7c BB bets 14.8 BB, Hero?
Hero opens AJs UTG and is flatted in the BB by a fairly competent player (23 16 6 507 hands).
We flop TPTK on a board that definitely favors BB range. Sizing up here makes sense. Villain decides to check raise. There are tons of draws so I see no reason to fold.
Turn is a great card for us. Lessens the number of naked 7s and two pair combos with a 7 that he can have. If he is defending properly vs an UTG range he should only have a few combos of 7s anyways. Regardless, the draws remain and villain continues betting. At this point I think we have two options. Either call or raise big/jam. Calling is nice because we allow him to keep barreling off on brick rivers. But this can also put us in a tough spot deciding whether he would barrel off on brick rivers, with sometimes even draws completing. Raising on the other hand allows us to deny equity to his draws and get our money in now while we likely have the best hand. Thoughts?
H3:
BTN: 47.6 BB SB: 225.1 BB BB: 263.4 BB UTG: 242.1 BB MP: 108.3 BB Hero (CO): 111.4 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6d 6c fold, MP calls 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB, fold, fold, BB checks
Flop : (3.5 BB, 3 players) 6h Qc Ac BB checks, MP bets 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, fold, MP raises to 107.3 BB and is all-in, Hero?
A fish limps in MP. I checked behind and didn't see any good/aggressive players so I decide to limp this as well. BB checks.
We flop a set which is great, especially against the fish in MP whos range is astronomically wide. He bets 2/3 pot and I think this is an obvious spot to raise. We want to get as much value as possible from this guy who will likely call all his draws, Ax and maybe even some Qx. BB folds. Interestingly, villain just piles it all. Obviously our odds suck here, but we have a set against a fish who limped preflop on a wet, A high board. Are we ever doing anything other than snapping it faster than he can blink?
submitted by Boomer162636 to poker [link] [comments]

Poker Running Bad - Then Worse

Poker Running Bad - Then Worse
I read. I research. Using poker tracker to break down my play and other data that will help me improve. I have been having a lot of bad beats and despite what I read or see when I break down a hand or play my gut is to just keep playing by the numbers and stats. I am getting tired of these beats. My bankroll is getting tired of them. I get feedback from other players, players who are much better to stay with math and stats. Gets old though. I feel like I want to always be behind in a hand and hit what I need on the River. Flush out, straighten out, hope the board pairs. I get my money in on good flips, get it on good odds and just get sucked out on all the time. I understand loose play and aggression factors. I get it. Just saying poker hasn't been fun for me for a while. I take a break and start again.

So it begins.....

TN: 208.9 BB
SB: 91.5 BB
BB: 280.3 BB
Hero (UTG): 126.3 BB
MP: 195.2 BB
CO: 110.4 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Tc Qh
Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, BTN raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 5.5 BB

Flop : (16.5 BB, 2 players) 9d Th 4s
Hero bets 16.5 BB, BTN calls 16.5 BB

Turn : (49.5 BB, 2 players) Ts
Hero bets 49.5 BB, BTN raises to 99 BB, Hero raises to 102.3 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 3.3 BB

River : (254.1 BB, 2 players) Kc

BTN shows Kh Kd (Full House, Kings full of Tens)
(Pre 86%, Flop 80%, Turn 5%)

Hero shows Tc Qh (Three of a Kind, Tens)
(Pre 14%, Flop 20%, Turn 95%)

BTN wins 241.4 BB
https://preview.redd.it/zfbq1pasetx41.jpg?width=819&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2c93d4f0ec837fa2b6c66d436a89451241ca6ae1
submitted by getunsafe to poker [link] [comments]

3-betting gives you a chance to pick up the pot preflop Calling an open-raise gives you no chance to pick up the pot preflop, but 3-betting does. Note: A solid 3-betting strategy is almost useless if you don’t know what to do postflop once your 3-bet gets called. Without a read on him, I would have 3-bet here every time, but I trusted what I was told: This player only raises preflop with the extremely big hands, and against those, my AQo was a huge dog. At When faced with a 10,000 reraise, both the preflop raiser and the caller will be getting excellent pot odds, meaning they are unlikely to fold. This would be fine if Hero had an overly premium hand like A-A that is unlikely to get outdrawn, but most flops bring at least one overcard to pairs like 9-9, and unpaired hands are unlikely to make a pair. You are denied the correct odds to call – and would have to play out of position for the rest of the hand. Stack-Depth Factors and Pre-Flop Calling Hands Cards worthy of a flat call when faced with a pre-flop raise. Texas Holdem Heads-Up Preflop Odds. This table was created by enumerating through every possible board and opponent hole card combination for each of the 169 texas holdem preflop starting hands. The numbers are exact to the rounding I used, which

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